The Bum's Week # 11 National Football League Rated Games - Trends - News !!

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OAK at DET 01:00 PM

OAK -1.0 AFC/NFC GOM

O 48.5


IND at ATL 01:00 PM

IND +3.5 *****

O 48.0 TRIPLE PLAY


NYJ at HOU 01:00 PM

HOU +4.0 *****

U 40.0


TB at PHI 01:00 PM

TB +6.5

O 45.5


DEN at CHI 01:00 PM

DEN -2.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 41.5


STL at BAL 01:00 PM

STL +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

U 41.0 DOUBLE PLAY


DAL at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA +2.5 *****

U 46.0


WAS at CAR 01:00 PM

CAR -7.0 BLOW OUT

U 44.0


KC at SD 04:05 PM

SD +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 45.0


GB at MIN 04:25 PM

MIN -1.0 TRIPLE PLAY

O 45.0


SF at SEA 04:25 PM

SF +14.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 40.0 TRIPLE PLAY


CIN at ARI 08:30 PM

CIN +4.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 48.0 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Bills at Patriots
November 23, 2015

The Bills are searching for their first playoff berth since getting bounced on the Music City Miracle by Tennessee in the 1999 Wild Card round. Buffalo still has a ways to go in the 2015 season with seven games remaining, but Rex Ryan’s club attempts to win its third straight game tonight and improve to 6-4, which would tie the Bills with the Steelers for one of two AFC Wild Card spots. However, the task will be anything but easy against Ryan’s nemesis, Bill Belichick and the 9-0 Patriots.

New England avoided its first loss of the season last Sunday in dramatic fashion, as Stephen Gostkowski’s 54-yard field goal in the final seconds propelled the Patriots past the Giants, 27-26. The Patriots failed to cash as seven-point road favorites, as Tom Brady’s 76-yard touchdown connection with tight end Rob Gronkowski put New England in front, 24-23 early in the fourth quarter. Josh Brown’s 29-yard field goal gave the Giants a 26-24 advantage with two minutes remaining prior to Gostkowski’s booming kick at the gun, as New England is off to its first 9-0 start since 2007, when it finished a perfect 16-0 in the regular season.

The Pats did suffer a loss in a sense as top wide receiver Julian Edelman broke his foot and is sidelined until late December. Edelman leads New England with 61 receptions and is second on the team in receiving yardage behind Gronkowski with 692 yards. Danny Amendola stepped up against the Giants by hauling in 10 catches for 79 yards, as eight different Patriots caught a pass from Brady last Sunday.

The Bills are coming off consecutive victories for the first time this season, beating their second straight division foe with a 22-17 triumph over Ryan’s old club, the Jets. For as much as Rex can claim last Thursday’s game at Met Life Stadium wasn't about him, he was pleased with his defense that allowed 17 points for the second consecutive week, while the Buffalo special teams scored a touchdown on a fumbled kickoff by the Jets in the second quarter. The Bills picked up the cover as 2 ½-point underdogs, aided by running back LeSean McCoy’s second straight 100-yard game on the ground, rushing for 112 yards.

The last time the Bills and Patriots hooked up came back in Week 2 at Ralph Wilson Stadium as New England outlasted Buffalo, 40-32 as two-point underdogs. Brady cut up the Bills’ secondary for 466 yards and three touchdowns, while three different Patriots picked up at least 97 yards receiving. The only problem with that is two of those players won’t be on the field tonight as Edelman (97 yards, 2 TD’s) and running back Dion Lewis (98 yards) are both hurt. New England’s defense intercepted Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor three times as the ‘over’ of 45 cashed before the fourth quarter started.

Buffalo won at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 of last season, 17-9, but that victory is pretty meaningless since the Patriots rested Brady after the first quarter and Gronkowski sat out. The Bills last picked up a victory at New England in somewhat of a meaningful spot back in 2000, Belichick’s first season as head coach and one season before Brady took over the reins under center. Buffalo owns a 4-2 ATS record in its last six trips to Foxboro, while Ryan has put together a 4-1 ATS mark in his last five head-to-head matchups with Belichick, even though three of those covers came as an underdog of 9 ½ points or more with the Jets.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson notes that Ryan’s defense will have work to do to slow down the Pats, “Statistically New England has gained over 418 yards per game for the second best mark in the NFL behind Arizona. Buffalo is 22nd in the league in total offense. The Patriots are the top scoring team in the NFL, but Buffalo is actually not far behind as the sixth best scoring team in the NFL through week 10. The defensive yardage numbers are nearly even for these teams which has been a disappointing area for a Bills team that was one of the best defenses in the league last season. New England has surprised with the #4 scoring defense in the NFL at this point and a lot of the scoring against the Patriots has come late in games where they have had a substantial lead.”

The underdogs on Monday night football continue to be a solid bet after Houston handed Cincinnati its first loss of the season last week in a 10-6 triumph as 10-point ‘dogs. Teams receiving points on Monday nights this season improved to 9-2 ATS and 6-5 SU, while the ‘under’ has hit nine of 11 times.

The Patriots are playing in their first Monday night game at Gillette Stadium since 2012 when they routed the Texans, 42-14. New England is winless in its last two Monday appearances, losing at Carolina in 2013 and getting destroyed at Kansas City last September. The Bills have endured a long Monday night drought, playing under this spotlight for the first time since the 2009 season opener at New England, cashing as 13-point underdogs in a 25-24 defeat.

Buffalo has won and covered in each of its three opportunities as a road underdog this season, extending its record in this role to 8-2 ATS since the start of 2014. The Patriots own a 1-1-1 ATS mark as a single-digit home favorite this season, while posting a 11-5-1 ATS ledger when laying less than 10 points at home since the beginning of 2013.

From a totals perspective, each team is 5-4 to the ‘over,’ as Buffalo’s three-game ‘over’ streak came to a halt with last Thursday’s ‘under’ at New York. After hitting ‘overs’ in two of its first three home contests, the Patriots have finished ‘under’ the total in their last two games at Gillette against the Dolphins and Redskins. New England allowed 10 points or less in back-to-back home games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2013 season, which included giving up 10 to Ryan’s Jets in a 13-10 victory.

The Patriots are listed as seven-point favorites at most books, while the total is hovering between 48 and 48 ½. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30’s around kickoff at Gillette Stadium, which is scheduled for 8:30 PM EST, as this AFC East battle can be seen nationally on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Pats look to stay perfect
November 22, 2015


BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -7, Total: 48.5

The unbeaten Patriots look to maintain their dominance over the Bills when these division foes close out Week 11 on Monday night.

Buffalo (5-4 ATS) is heating up at the right time with back-to-back wins over AFC East foes Miami and the New York Jets, and has been an excellent road team this season at 3-1 (SU and ATS). New England (5-2-2 ATS) survived a scare against the Giants last week and needed a 54-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski in the closing seconds to improve to 9-0 SU. Since the 2012 calendar year, the Patriots own a commanding 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) advantage in this series with the lone defeat being a meaningless 17-9 result last December when a playoff berth was already sewn up.

When these clubs met earlier this season, the Bills kept it close before falling 40-32 at home. The betting trends overwhelmingly favor New England, such as its 8-1 ATS mark at home versus teams with 24+ PPG in the past three seasons or its 12-2 ATS record since 2014 after playing in a shootout where 50+ points were scored. But Buffalo falls in the category of road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a 2-1 ATS stretch going 43-17 ATS over the past 10 seasons in a matchup of two winning teams in the second half of the season.

The Patriots have been decimated by injuries all year, with none bigger than top WR Julian Edelman who injured his foot last Sunday and is out indefinitely. His teammates LB Jamie Collins and OLs Marcus Cannon (toe), Sebastian Vollmer (concussion) and Tre' Jackson (knee) are all listed as questionable for Monday night, which is the same status for the lone Bills player appearing on the injury report, OT Cyrus Kouandjio, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Buffalo has also been hurt by injuries this season to its offensive skill players, but everybody now appears healthy for the stretch drive and the offense is eager to improve on strong numbers of 25.7 PPG and 343 total YPG. QB Tyrod Taylor has enjoyed a fine season with a 5-2 starter record, 1,436 passing yards (205 YPG), 11 TD and 4 INT. But three of those picks came in the Week 2 loss to the Patriots to ruin a productive day of Taylor totaling 285 total yards and four touchdowns (3 pass, 1 rush). He is helped out greatly by a potent rushing attack chewing up 142 YPG on 4.8 YPC this year.

This includes 160 yards in the Sept. 20 loss to New England led by RB LeSean McCoy's 89 yards on 15 totes. McCoy has 528 yards this season on 4.7 YPC, and has shared the workload with both RB Karlos Williams (360 rush yds, 6.2 YPC) and Taylor (243 rush yds, 5.2 YPC).

Defensively, the Bills need to get more pressure on the quarterback as their 14 sacks pale in comparison to the 54 sacks they recorded last year. For the season, the Buffalo defense is holding teams to 23.0 PPG and 350 total YPG. This is broken down between 97 rushing YPG allowed (4.1 YPC) and 252 passing YPG allowed (6.4 YPA). But considering how easy it was for the Patriots to throw on Buffalo in Week 2, this could be another tough task for the defense.

New England QB Tom Brady (339 passing YPG, 24 TD, 3 INT) is having a phenomenal 2015 campaign, and he lit up the Bills for 466 passing yards (7.9 YPA) and three touchdowns back in September. However, the top yardage gainer that day, RB Dion Lewis (138), and the player with the most receptions, WR Julian Edelman (11 receptions), are both injured for the rematch. Brady is a dominant 21-3 SU (14-9-1 ATS) in his career versus Buffalo, throwing for 255 YPG, 57 TD and 17 INT.

Brady will continue to heavily target TE Rob Gronkowski, who had seven receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 versus the Bills. But he must also give more targets to WRs Danny Amendola (403 rec yds, 2 TD), Brandon LaFell (240 rec yds) and Aaron Dobson (124 rec yds), who went for 87 yards on seven catches versus Buffalo. With Lewis injured, the ground game has belonged to RB LeGarrette Blount (513 rush yds, 4.4 YPC, 6 TD), who has rushed for 267 yards and 2 TD over the past three games since Lewis went down.

The Patriots defense has already recorded 30 sacks this year, including 10.5 sacks by DE Chandler Jones. Opponents have only 18.8 PPG and 344 YPG against New England, whose run-stop unit is limiting teams to 88 YPG on 4.0 YPC. The Patriots do surrender 256 passing YPG on 6.4 YPA, but the passing defense has nine interceptions and only 14 touchdowns allowed.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 23

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bills at Patriots
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If the Patriots can defeat the Bills they will be one win away from winning their 7th straight AFC East crown.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5, 48)

A rash of injuries continues to threaten the New England Patriots' pursuit of a perfect record as they prepare for a second matchup with Rex Ryan and the visiting Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Patriots kept their unbeaten record intact - barely - with a last-second, 54-yard field goal in a 27-26 win at the New York Giants last weekend but lost another key player in the process.

Wide receiver Julian Edelman, who had a team-leading 61 catches to go along with seven touchdowns, broke a bone in his foot Sunday and is expect to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks. "You wish you could just plug somebody else in but it's impossible," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "Julian Edelmans aren't just sitting out on the street anywhere, they'd be playing for another team." Ryan, who moved from the New York Jets to Buffalo in the offseason, will be trying to avenge a 40-32 loss to the Patriots in Week 2. The Bills are tied for second in the AFC East following back-to-back wins over division rivals Miami and New York.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady at the opening line of Patriots -7.5 for most of the week, with just the juice adjusting. The total has been bet down one point from its opening number, going from 49 to 48.

INJURY REPORT:

Bills - T C. Kouandjio (probable Monday, knee), CB L. McKelvin (probable Monday, illness), RB K. Williams (probable Monday illness), RG R. Incognito (questionable Monday, shoulder).

Patriots - OL M. Cannon (questionable Monday, toe), G T. Jackson (questionable Monday, knee), T S. Vollmer (questionable Monday, head), WR K. Martin (questionable Monday, hamstring), WR M. Slater (questionable Monday, undisclosed), LB J. Collins (out Monday, illness), WR J. Edelman (out indefinitely, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice, but chilly night for football in Foxborough. The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 30's. There will be a very slight 3-5 mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-2.5) - Patriots (-8.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -9.5

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Since coming off its bye, Buffalo has had success with a ground-and-pound attack that Ryan favored with the Jets, getting a combined 378 yards rushing and four touchdowns from the running back tandem of LeSean McCoy and rookie Karlos Williams. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been picked off once since throwing three interceptions in the Week 2 loss to New England while wide receiver Sammy Watkins provides a big play threat if he can remain healthy. The Bills have yielded 17 points in each of the last two weeks after giving up 68 in the previous two losses.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-0, 5-3-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brady (league-best 24 TD passes) carved up Buffalo for 466 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting as New England barely thought about running the ball, but two players who combined for 17 catches in that game - Edelman and Dion Lewis - are now out. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has a team-high eight touchdowns, had seven receptions and the first of his five 100-yard games this season in the earlier meeting. The Patriots are second in the league in rushing yards allowed (88.2) and third in sacks (30), led by Chandler Jones' NFL-high 10.5.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with New England in this AFC East matchup, with 57 percent of wagers on the Patriots. The public is also on the over with 68 percent of wagers on it.

[StarDust Bum]

Bills (5-4) @ Patriots (9-0)-- NE (+1) won first meeting 40-32 in Week 2, throwing for 451 yards- two of its four TD drives were 13-30 yards, thanks to three takeaways (+1). Pats are 27-3 in last 30 series games; Buffalo's 17-9 win here LY was its first in last 14 visits to Foxboro. Bills are 2-0 since bye, running for 207 ypg; they're 3-0 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Patriots are 3-0-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 7-34-7-29-17 points- they needed 54-yard FG at gun LW in Swamp to stay unbeaten. Patriots lead NFL with 12 TD drives of less than 60 yards; their defense/special teams set offense up for shorter drives. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-21-1 vs spread. Three of last four Buffalo games went over total; last three Patriot games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

Buffalo @ New England

Game 475-476
November 23, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
137.643
New England
141.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+7 1/2); Over

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Monday, November 23

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BUFFALO (5 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 0) - 11/23/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-129 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday - Nov, 23

Buffalo at New England, 8:30 ET
Buffalo: 11-24 ATS in road games off a win against a division rival
New England: 16-6 ATS in home games

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Monday, November 23

8:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at NE 08:30 PM

NE -7.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 47.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND against the spread in All games in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

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NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in all games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in all lined games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)

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NFL > (263) BUFFALO@ (264) KANSAS CITY | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON BUFFALO ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.5 units)

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NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play UNDER BUFFALO on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)