The Bum's Week # 11 National Football League Rated Games - Trends - News !!

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Total Talk - Week 11
November 21, 2015


The ‘under’ produced an 8-4-2 record last week and based on where you play, you could’ve easily seen three pushes if you got in a tad early on the Giants-Patriots. For our purposes, we graded it as an ‘under’ while the two other late games (KC-DEN, MIN-OAK) both ended as pushes and those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. A late touchdown by the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson helped or hurt some bettors and two meaningless scores by the Broncos didn’t bode well for others. After 10 weeks of action, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 74-69-3 (52%) this season.

Non-Conference Unders

Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 26-14-1 (65%) in non-conference and that includes a 4-2-1 record the past two weeks. We talked about the aforementioned push above in the Vikings-Raiders game and the possible winner or loser in the Giants-Patriots game if you caught a generous line of 53 ½.

We have six more AFC-NFC Matchups on tap for Sunday and here’s my quick handicap on each contest.

Oakland at Detroit: This total (50) is screaming for ‘over’ action and while the Raiders have been competitive this season, their defense, especially against the pass (293 YPG) is awful. I believe both clubs should get at least four to five scores in this game and as long as the kickers aren't active, this has a good shot to go high.

Indianapolis at Atlanta: Must-win spot for the Falcons at home and they’re coming off the bye. Atlanta on a 5-0 ‘under’ run and you’d believe the Colts’ Matt Hasselbeck will be a game-manager and try to keep it close and steal one on the road. The Colts have allowed 29 and 27 in two losses to NFC South opponents this season.

Dallas at Miami: Even though QB Tony Romo returns for Dallas, I expect the Cowboys to run against Miami’s 31st rushing defense (135.6 YPG). This is only the 3rd true home game for Miami this season and the ‘over’ cashed in the first two. The Dolphins are 2-0 versus NFC East this season, both 'under' winners.

St. Louis at Baltimore: Very hard total to handicap with the QB change for the Rams (Case Keenum) and Baltimore has been very inconsistent on offense due to key injuries. St. Louis has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 on the road largely because it can’t score (15.5 PPG). The Rams 1-1 versus AFC North this season, allowing a total of 18 points in games against the Steelers and Browns.

Denver at Chicago: Another QB change in this game with Brock Osweiler taking over for the Broncos. Denver’s once highly touted defense has allowed 27 and 29 the last two weeks. QB Jay Cutler gets a lot of credit for Chicago’s 4-2 winning run but the defense has been great (17.5 PPG) in the victories and not so good in the losses (30 PPG). With a win on Sunday, the Bears will have swept the AFC West this season. The 'under' 3-0 in first three against that group.

Cincinnati at Arizona: (See Below)

Head-to-Head

We only have three divisional games set for Sunday and they’re all slated in the late afternoon segment.

Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ cashed in both games last season but the ‘over’ hit in the four previous matchups. The Chargers are near the bottom of the league in defense (27.7 PPG) yet the ‘under’ has produced a 5-4 mark in their games. Most would expect a better effort at home from San Diego off the bye but the Chiefs defense is in great form, allowing 14 PPG in their last five, which has led to a 3-1-1 ‘under’ mark.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The ‘over’ has cashed in three of the last four encounters and the Packers have averaged 34 PPG during this span. The Packers have been a mess on offense lately and now they face arguably the best defense they’ve seen all season in the Vikings (17.1 PPG). Minnesota has been an incredible ‘under’ investment this season (7-1-1) and I’m a little surprised this total is listed at 44 ½ but that’s due to the public’s perception of the Packers. Make a note that this is the lowest number Green Bay has seen all season and it’s also been a great ‘under’ (6-3) play as well.

San Francisco at Seattle: This game has the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and the number seems fair based on recent meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and eight of the last 10, which includes Seattle’s 20-3 win over San Francisco on Oct. 22 this season. The 49ers made a QB change to Blaine Gabbert and he helped them to a 17-16 win. Despite that effort, San Francisco is still the worst offense (14 PPG) in the league and Seattle eats up these kind of players/teams at home. In all four of the wins by Seattle this season, the defense has allowed 25 points. I don’t expect them to lose here but I wouldn’t run to the betting counter and pound ‘under’ tickets right away because the 49ers have been torched on the road, allowing 36.8 PPG.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s low-scoring affair between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘under’ now owns a 22-10 (69%) record in primetime games this season. It’s never a good idea to chase bets but there are 17 night games left and I’d bet that at least eight of those games go to the high side but certainly not a sound investment.

Cincinnati at Arizona: This is a quality matchup and Arizona looks like a trap since it just posted a great win at Seattle in the national spotlight game on Sunday while Cincinnati was dominated to a weaker Houston team at home in the same setting on MNF. For the total, it’s hard to dismiss what the Cardinals did at Seattle last week but this Bengals unit is no slouch and actually better in points allowed (16.9 PPG) and close in YPG (338 YPG). Arizona is 7-2 to the ‘over’ but this number seems inflated and the Cardinals defense (17 PPG) has been great at home. On a side note, Arizona looks legit at 7-2 but they haven't beaten at team with a winning record this season and when stepping up in class, they lost to the Steelers 25-13 on the road.

Buffalo at New England: The Patriots blasted the Bills 40-32 in Week 2 and the ‘over’ (44 ½) cashed midway through the third quarter. Buffalo made the score respectable late but New England racked up 451 passing yards on Rex Ryan’s defense. As I noted in Week 2, Brady and Belichick have owned Rex and you’d have a tough argument believing the Bills will stop them on Monday. I will note that Buffalo has only allowed 14, 13 and 17 points in three road games played in the states this season. However, New England has scored 27 or more points in 12 of its last 13 meaningful games at home.

Fearless Predictions

We posted the bagel last week and even though a couple of our wagers looked solid early, they ended up losers. The deficit has reached four digits ($1,130) after 10 weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-Philadelphia 45

Best Under: Washington-Carolina 45

Best Team Total: Under 14 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 36 Tampa Bay-Philadelphia
Under 53 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 49 ½ Chicago-Denver

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Week 11 Tip Sheet
November 21, 2015

Redskins at Panthers (-7 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Two undefeated teams remain in the NFL as Carolina (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) stayed unbeaten cruising past Tennessee, 27-10 as 3 ½-point road favorites. The Panthers’ defense limited Tennessee to 242 yards of offense as Ron Rivera’s team owns a perfect 4-0 ATS record away from Bank of America Stadium. Carolina has scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, resulting in five ‘overs,’ but the two non-covers for the Panthers came as a favorite of five points or more against the Colts and Saints.

Which Washington team will we see this week? The Redskins (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) go for consecutive wins for the first time this season after blasting the defenseless Saints last Sunday, 47-14 as one-point home underdogs. Kirk Cousins lit up the New Orleans secondary for four touchdown passes, as the Redskins scored a season-high in points in spite of kicking four field goals. Washington has yet to win a game away from FedEx Field, posting a dreadful 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record on the highway, while losing three straight visits to Charlotte dating back to 2003.

Colts at Falcons (-5 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC South race will come down to the finish, but it’s not exactly the battle of Titans. Following Jacksonville’s victory over Tennessee on Thursday, the Jaguars pulled within one-game of the Colts and Texans for the top spot in the division. Indianapolis (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) has endured a rough season from an injury standpoint, mainly franchise quarterback Andrew Luck, who is out until at least December after suffering a lacerated kidney in a home underdog win over previously undefeated Denver two weeks ago. Matt Hasselbeck gets the nod under center for the Colts, as the veteran quarterback has won each of his first two starts, beating the Jaguars and Texans, as Indianapolis owns a perfect 4-0 ATS record in the underdog role this season.

The 5-0 start for Atlanta (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) seems like a distant memory as the Falcons have lost three of their past four games to drop three behind the Panthers in the NFC South race. The quality of opponents that Dan Quinn’s club has lost to is even more perplexing, dropping games to the Buccaneers and 49ers the last few weeks, while scoring just 36 combined points in those losses. Atlanta is riding a five-game ATS skid, as the Falcons are facing the Colts for the first time since 2011 when they went into Indianapolis and routed the Colts, 31-7 as 6 ½-point favorites (Sidebar – the Curtis Painter-led Colts in their 2-14 season).

Jets (-3, 40 ½) at Texans - 1:00 PM EST

It’s going to be a slugfest towards the end for the two Wild Card spots in the AFC, as New York (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) has lost three of its last four games following a 4-1 start. The Jets fell short last Thursday night against the rival Bills, 22-17 as New York scored a couple of late touchdowns to make the final score misleading. Todd Bowles’ team has lost their last two games away from Met Life Stadium to the Patriots and Raiders, as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will start following minor surgery on his non-throwing thumb. The Jets have won five of six lifetime matchups with the Texans, while making their first trip to Houston since opening day of the 2009 season in a 24-7 triumph.

Houston (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is starting to turn the corner in a positive direction, handing Cincinnati its first loss of the season last Monday night in a 10-6 upset as 10-point road underdogs. The defense has been the key to this sudden turnaround, not allowing a touchdown in the past eight quarters, a major improvement since giving up 44 points at Miami in Week 7. On the offensive side, the Texans will be sending out their third different starting quarterback of the season as T.J. Yates starts in place of Brian Hoyer, who is suffering from concussion-like symptoms. The Texans have struggled in the underdog role in the Bill O’Brien regime, compiling a 5-8 ATS record, including a 1-3 ATS mark as a home ‘dog.

Broncos (-1, 41) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

It’s a precarious time for the AFC West leaders as Denver (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) looks to snap a two-game skid heading to Soldier Field. Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s NFL record for most passing yards in a career, but the Broncos’ quarterback threw four interceptions and left the game with a foot injury in last Sunday’s 29-13 home setback to the Chiefs. With Manning sidelined, Brock Osweiler gets his first crack to start for the Broncos, who are 0-3 ATS in their last three opportunities as a favorite. The Broncos have lost two of their last road games against NFC foes since 2014 with the lone victory coming at Detroit in Week 3.

John Fox led the Broncos to four consecutive AFC West titles from 2011-14, but mutually parted ways the franchise after losing to the Colts in the AFC Divisional playoffs this past January. Fox took over as head coach of the Bears (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS), falling into an early 0-3 hole after facing three playoff teams from last season. Chicago has rebounded nicely with wins in four of its past six games, including three victories against AFC West competition. The Bears scored a season-high 37 points in last Sunday’s 24-point blowout of the Rams, while the only two losses in this six-game stretch came by three points each to the Vikings and Lions.

Packers at Vikings (-1, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The NFC North race was Green Bay’s to lose in October, but the Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) are looking up at the Vikings in the division. The Packers went from a 6-0 start to three consecutive losses, capped off by a shocking 18-16 setback to the dreadful Lions as 10 ½-point favorites last Sunday. Mike McCarthy’s club covered each of the first five games of the season, but are 0-4 ATS the past four contests, while being listed as an underdog for the first time in 2015. Since 2011, the Packers have won seven of nine matchups with the Vikings, including a two-game sweep last season.

Besides the undefeated Patriots and Panthers, the next hottest team in the NFL is Minnesota (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS), who has won seven of its past eight games since an opening night loss at San Francisco. The Vikings cruised past the Raiders, 30-14 last Sunday as three-point road underdogs, while holding eight of nine opponents to 20 points or less (‘under’ is 7-1-1 this season). Minnesota is perfect at TCF Bank Stadium with a 4-0 SU/ATS record, while winning seven straight home games since last November with the previous home defeat coming to Green Bay in a 24-21 setback.

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SNF - Bengals at Cardinals
November 21, 2015

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-1) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -4.5, Total: 49

The Cardinals’ high-flying offense will meet the Bengals’ bend but don’t break defense in an out-of-conference matchup with major playoff implications for both teams when the two square off in Arizona on Sunday Night Football. Cincinnati (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) fell from the ranks of the unbeatens on Monday night in a loss at home to Houston 10-6, thanks in no small part to season lows in points scored, rushing yards, and passing yards; the Bengals entered Monday night’s game averaging 391 YPG this season, but mustered only 256 yards against the Texans’ defense.

Arizona (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) picked up one of the most impressive victories of the season on Sunday, a 39-32 come-from-behind victory on the road against Seattle while moving into 2nd place in the NFC playoff picture. The Cardinals handed the Seahawks just their 4th home loss since the start of the 2012 season.

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Betting trends favor the Cardinals, though Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton has had more success than Cardinals QB Carson Palmer. Dalton is 42-29 ATS in his career, while Palmer is 37-33 ATS since the beginning of the 2010 season. As an underdog, Dalton is 19-12, including 13-8 as a road underdog. Palmer is just 16-16 ATS as the favorite since the start of the 2010 season, including 10-13 as the home favorite.

Arizona is 69-33 ATS when allowing 15 to 21 points since 1992, including a 3-1 mark this season. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS when allowing 100 to 125 rushing yards, including a 3-0 mark this season. Arizona is 8-0 ATS since the start of the 2012 season when gaining 350-400 total yards, although Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS when allowing 350 to 400 total yards over that same time frame. Both coaches have trended toward success in their careers.

As Bengals’ head coach, Marvin Lewis is 55-48 ATS in the 2nd half of the season, while the Cardinals’ Bruce Arians is 12-5 ATS in the 2nd half of the season since taking over in 2013.

Cincinnati has allowed 338.8 total YPG this season (11th in NFL), and ranks 13th in both rushing YPG and passing YPG allowed, but the unit has clamped down when it matters most, allowing just 16.9 PPG (1st in NFL). Cincinnati’s 4.7 rushing YPA allowed (T-28th in NFL), is a problem, one that could get even worse with Chris Johnson’s 734 yards (2nd in NFL) awaiting them Sunday night.

The outcome of this game could come down to how Andy Dalton ends up playing. He was absolutely flawless up until last week’s meeting with the Texans, when he really looked miserable in a loss. Giovani Bernard will also be an x-factor in this one, as the Bengals will need to make some big plays in the screen game.

Johnson is far from the only thing the Bengals should fear. The Cardinals will provide the greatest total offensive challenge the Bengals have faced this season. Arizona is averaging 421.1 total YPG (1st in NFL) and 33.6 PPG (2nd in NFL), thanks in large part to a passing attack that, after finishing 14th in the league last season while averaging less than 240 YPG, is currently averaging 297 YPG (4th in the league).

In addition to Johnson, the Bengals will need to find a way to slow down Larry Fitzgerald, among the league leaders in receptions (6th) and receiving yards (5th).

The Cardinals’ defense is ranked in the Top 10 in both passing YPG allowed (7th) and rushing YPG allowed (4th), putting even more pressure on Dalton to recover from last week’s season-worst offensive performance.

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Kaepernick goes on season-ending IR
November 21, 2015

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Colin Kaepernick has been placed on season-ending injured reserve, possibly signaling an end to his time with the San Francisco 49ers

Kaepernick began the week coming off the team's bye with a shoulder issue he brought to the attention of the medical staff and received treatment, but was listed as a full participant in practice.

He was listed as probable Friday to be available if needed Sunday against Seattle as the backup to promoted starter Blaine Gabbert.

But after the team submitted the injury report, Kaepernick returned to the training staff Friday after practice and said the shoulder wasn't making any progress and asked about his options. Surgery was a possibility.

The 28-year-old Kaepernick's $11.9 million 2016 contract would become fully guaranteed for injury if he's still on the roster on April 1.

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Let it snow and the wind blow for Packers-Vikings
November 21, 2015

Packers-Vikings. Outdoors, the way it always used to be and probably still should be. For the lead in the Black and Blue Division.

Sure would be appropriate if a little snow would fall in the Twin Cities, too. At least the forecasts have been for a high temperature in the mid-30s.

Minnesota (7-2) has won five in a row to surge past slumping Green Bay (6-3) in the NFC North. When the Packers come to TCF Bank Stadium on Sunday, they will be an underdog for the first time all season.

Could the Vikings actually get a bit overconfident? Coach Mike Zimmer doesn't see that happening.

''Sometimes guys that try to do too much, they get caught up in all the hype,'' Zimmer says. ''But usually guys that are focused and understanding the fundamentals of things, the things that got you to this spot are really what carries you through.''

What has gotten Minnesota to this spot is the running of Adrian Peterson, whose 961 yards easily leads the league. And a defense ranked ninth overall that hasn't allowed more than 23 points in a game, giving up 154 overall, second stingiest in the NFL.

Green Bay went into its bye undefeated and hasn't won since. The offense has stagnated and the defense has regressed.

''We need a win man. We need a win, period,'' receiver James Jones says. ''We need to get back to the type of football we were playing the first couple games of the season.''

The Packers are 9-1-1 in the past 11 games against the Vikings, and coach Mike McCarthy is 14-4-1 in his career vs. Minnesota.

The action began Thursday night with Jacksonville's 19-13 home victory over Tennessee.

Rashad Greene returned a punt 63 yards, setting up Blake Bortles' 5-yard touchdown pass to Julius Thomas with 3:30 remaining to give the Jaguars (4-6) a 16-13 lead. Jacksonville won consecutive games for the first time in more than two years and gained ground in the muddled AFC South. The Titans (2-8) lost for the eighth time in nine games.

This is the last week with byes. Off are the Giants (5-5), Saints (4-6), Steelers (6-4) and Browns (2-8).

Washington (4-5) at Carolina (9-0)

The Redskins have turned around their season behind Kirk Cousins' passing, moving within a game of the NFC East lead. They will be tested by the Panthers, who have the best record in franchise history.

Cam Newton has matured into a force as the Panthers have won 13 straight regular-season games, scoring at least 27 points in seven consecutive games. Carolina's defense, paced by linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman, has helped it to a plus-8 turnover margin, tied for second best in the league.

''You definitely need to be aware of great players like that, understand where they are, try to study them the best you can through film as to what their style of play is,'' Cousins says.

Buffalo (5-4) at New England (9-0), Monday night

If Tom Brady is standing outside Gillette Stadium with a welcoming sign for both the Bills and the ESPN cameras, that's understandable. The Patriots have won 27 of the last 31 meetings dating back to 2000, Brady has 24 regular-season wins against the Bills - more than against any other opponent in his career - and has more touchdown passes (61) against Buffalo than any team. He also is 13-6 on Monday nights and has thrown three or more touchdowns in nine of those 19 games.

Both clubs come off emotional victories at the Meadowlands. Buffalo beat the Jets in coach Rex Ryan's return to where he worked for the previous six seasons. New England needed a 54-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski in the dying seconds to edge the Giants.

Cincinnati (8-1) at Arizona (7-2)

The Carson Palmer show.

Palmer was the top overall pick in the 2003 draft by the Bengals who had some success there, forced a trade in 2011 (to Oakland) and has revived his career in the Valley of the Sun. Palmer ranks second in the NFL in passer rating (108), with Cincinnati's Andy Dalton, who has started every game for the Bengals since Palmer left, ranking fourth (104.6).

Cincinnati tasted defeat for the first time last Monday night against Houston. The league flexed this to prime time and who can blame it? The Bengals play their third straight night game, the Cardinals their second.

Denver (7-2) at Chicago (4-5)

John Fox facing the team he led to four straight AFC West titles has taken a back seat to the Peyton Manning saga. Manning has been benched because of a slew of injuries that resulted in the worst game of his career last Sunday, with a 0.00 passer rating against the Chiefs.

Brock Osweiler gets his first NFL start in his fourth pro season. Manning won't be ''in his ear'' because he didn't make the trip to Chicago.

With Matt Forte out, Chicago has gotten breakout performances from rookie Jeremy Langford with 324 scrimmage yards (145 rushing, 179 receiving) and three TDs in two games.

Dallas (2-7) at Miami (4-5)

Tony's back. And fans of America's Team expect Romo to save their season.

Dallas dropped all seven games he missed with a broken collarbone. Romo still believes 2015 is not a lost cause.

''I don't think that anyone in this locker room thinks by any means that this season is over,'' Romo said Wednesday. ''You lose enough games, sometimes it can creep in where it feels that way, and I don't think our team has not ever given 100 percent commitment. That's exciting to see. That's how you can turn it around.''

The Dolphins benefited from Eagles mistakes in last week's victory, and remain on the fringes of the AFC wild-card race.

Indianapolis (4-5) at Atlanta (6-3)

The Colts are 2-0 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback for Andrew Luck, who is out injured for this one. Few teams can rely on their backup QB the way the Colts can on the 40-year-old veteran.

What Indy must find is someone who can cover Julio Jones. Then again, no team has found that person this year.

Jones leads the league with 80 catches for 1,029 yards and six touchdowns and has a shot at beating Marvin Harrison's single-season receptions record of 143). Jones is coming off his fifth 100-yard receiving game of 2015.

Atlanta has lost three of its last four, while Indianapolis got its best win of the season by beating then-undefeated Denver. Then both teams had a bye week.

Oakland (4-5) at Detroit (2-7)

Coming off their stunning win in Green Bay, probably the biggest upset of the season, the Lions have been a .500 team since starting 0-5, even with the upheaval in the front office

The Raiders seemed to be a threat for the playoffs after three straight wins, but have dropped the last two and were manhandled by Minnesota last week. Their passing game, with budding stars at quarterback in Derek Carr and receiver in rookie Amari Cooper, will test the Lions' mediocre defense.

New York Jets (5-4) at Houston (4-5)

Two teams headed in opposite directions, with New York dropping three of four, Houston taking three of four.

Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had surgery on thumb ligaments of his left hand on Nov. 13, started 12 games for Houston last season and is expected to start Sunday.

One key matchup could be Jets CB Darrelle Revis against emerging star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

The Jets have won five of six in the series, but the Texans won the previous meeting in 2012.

San Francisco (3-6) at Seattle (4-5)

The two powers of the NFC West in recent years, and neither has a winning record. Still, this is a nasty rivalry in which the Seahawks have won four in a row, including 20-3 win one month ago when they sacked Colin Kaepernick six times and held the 49ers to 142 total yards.

QB Blaine Gabbert will make his second start after Kaepernick was benched. Gabbert led the 49ers past Atlanta two weeks ago.

Crazy stat: CB Richard Sherman, a 2014 All-Pro, has gone 10 straight regular-season games without an interception, the longest drought of his career.

Kansas City (4-5) at San Diego (2-7)

While the Chiefs have turned around things with three consecutive wins based on a strong defense and Alex Smith avoiding picks, the Chargers have sunk into San Diego Bay with five straight defeats. In their last two games the Chiefs have 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and now face the injury-ravaged Chargers, who come off a bye and hope to get some of the wounded back.

Through it all, Chargers QB Philip Rivers has played well with 19 TD throws, seven interceptions and a 100.7 passer rating. He must watch out for linebacker Justin Houston, who has 7 1/2 sacks.

Tampa Bay (4-5) at Philadelphia (4-5)

Despite their similar records, these teams are in totally different situations. The Eagles will be tied for the NFC East lead if they win, while the Buccaneers can barely see Carolina at the top of the NFC South.

Tampa has shown significant improvement from last season's 2-14 mark, with top overall draft pick QB Jameis Winston progressing nicely. It might be the ground game that helps the Bucs the most at the Linc: Philly has allowed a 100-yard rusher in its past three games.

St. Louis (4-5) at Baltimore (2-7)

Nothing goes right for the Ravens, who found yet another way to lose last week as an officiating error hurt them.

An interception by Lardarius Webb last week was Baltimore's first takeaway since Week 3. The Ravens have recovered one opponent's fumble all season and own a minus-10 turnover differential.

They'll face a new quarterback as Rams coach Jeff Fisher benched Nick Foles, who missed open receivers all over the field in a loss to Chicago, with Case Keenum. St. Louis leads the NFC with 29 sacks.

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Manning will stay back in Denver to continue rehab
November 21, 2015

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Peyton Manning is staying back in Denver when the Broncos travel to Chicago this weekend so he can continue getting treatment on a variety of ailments. He has company in DeMarcus Ware, who's staying behind to keep rehabbing his bad back.

''You can go out there and sit in the cold or you can get two extra days of treatment to speed up your recovery,'' Ware said. ''So, that's what we're doing.''

Excused from meetings and practices this week so he could concentrate on getting healthy, Manning made a cameo appearance at Friday's practice and watched Brock Osweiler get ready for his first NFL start.

Manning hasn't made an appearance in the locker room during the media access time since Monday.

''He's doing really good,'' Ware said. ''We're just two guys trying to get better and just keeping each other supported. Because you know how we are. We're very competitive. We want to get out there. We want to play. But you don't want to go out there 80 percent when at 100 percent you're a different guy among all the other players and you can make a bigger impact. You've just got to think about it that way.''

Manning is getting treatment on a variety of ailments, including a torn plantar fascia in his left foot, an aching throwing shoulder and sore ribs, all related to his throwing motion.

Ware hurt his lower back against Oakland last month and missed a game. He aggravated the injury at Indianapolis on Nov. 8 and will miss his second straight game Sunday.

While Ware expressed confidence he'll be back in the lineup for the Broncos' showdown with New England next week, there's no timetable for Manning's return.

Coach Gary Kubiak will re-evaluate his QB situation after this weekend. He said Osweiler had a good week of practice and benefited from some decidedly Chicago-like weather Friday. The Broncos finally got to use their outdoor fields that had been soaked by a blizzard earlier in the week.

''We got some snow, we got some wind,'' Kubiak said.

Notes: WR Emmanuel Sanders (left ankle sprain) was limited Friday and is 50-50 for the game along with DEs Antonio Smith (hip) and Vance Walker (shoulder), neither of whom practiced this week.

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Carlos Hyde out; Shaun Draughn to start in Seattle
November 20, 2015

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde will miss his third game with a stress fracture in his left foot, 49ers coach Jim Tomsula said Friday, days after suggesting he might be available.

Tomsula said he was being overly optimistic and that the medical staff determined the foot was still too sore for Hyde to make the trip to Seattle to face the Seahawks on Sunday.

The 49ers will turn again to Shaun Draughn, who signed with the team Nov. 2 and gained 58 yards in a starting role in a 17-16 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

Veteran running back Pierre Thomas also was signed, but was released after gaining 12 yards on four carries against the Falcons.

Travaris Cadet, who appeared in one game with the New England Patriots this year, was signed two weeks and will be available against the Seahawks.

Kendall Gaskins also is in the running back mix.

''It's basically getting used to the terminology,'' Cadet said. ''For the most part, you get out what you put into it. I don't have a specific role at this point. I'm still learning the offense. It's getting easier and easier every day.''

Cadet also played with Thomas for three years in New Orleans.

''He's like a big brother to me,'' Cadet said. ''He's helped me out a lot.''

Draughn was also one of Blaine Gabbert's favorite targets. He caught four passes for 38 yards and was targeted five times, the same as wide receiver Quinton Patton.

''We feel like we've got three three guys that will be playing some running back for us in the game,'' Tomsula said. ''When you come in having to pick everything up quickly, along with the game plan, those guys have done a nice job.''

Running back Jarryd Hayne, currently on the practice squad, addressed reports that he would return to Australia and play in the NRL Rugby League.

''I'm still wondering why that's even a question,'' said Hayne, who is committed to staying in the NFL. ''I want to focus on learning and getting better every day. Like anything else, the more reps you get the better. You can't just learn it, you have to get on the field.''

Hayne even played in the secondary on the scout team, filling in due to a large number of injuries at those positions.

''I was chasing guys around really,'' Hayne said.

Hayne then went off to try his hand at table tennis, taking on linebacker Shayne Skov.

NOTES: CB Kenneth Acker (concussion, chest) is ''full go'' according to Tomsula. ... R Anquan Boldin (hamstring) continues to progress, taking limited practice reps, and is questionable. .. In addtion to Acker, LB NaVorro Bowman (shoulder), CB Tramaine Brock (shoulder), LB Ahmad Brooks (shoulder), QB Colin Kaepernick (left shoulder), CB Keith Reaser (ankle) and S Eric Reid (chest) are probable.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ATS

NFL > (467) DENVER@ (468) CHICAGO | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (471) SAN FRANCISCO@ (472) SEATTLE | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)

NFL > (463) GREEN BAY@ (464) MINNESOTA | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND against the spread in All games in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 34 Wins and 72 Losses for the since 1992 (-45.2 units)

NFL > (473) KANSAS CITY@ (474) SAN DIEGO | 2015-11-22 16:05:00 - 2015-11-22 16:05:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO against the spread in All games versus division opponents
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in all games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in all lined games
The record is 24 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.1 units)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 18 Wins and 41 Losses for the since 1992 (-41.35 units)

NFL > (471) SAN FRANCISCO@ (472) SEATTLE | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.1 units)

NFL > (451) WASHINGTON@ (452) CAROLINA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)

NFL > (459) ST LOUIS@ (460) BALTIMORE | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON BALTIMORE using money line in Home games in non-conference games
The record is 29 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+22 units)

NFL > (451) WASHINGTON@ (452) CAROLINA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.05 units)

NFL > (461) NY JETS@ (462) HOUSTON | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 10 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-24.55 units)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 38 Wins and 69 Losses for the since 1992 (-56.75 units)

NFL > (469) CINCINNATI@ (470) ARIZONA | 2015-11-22 20:30:00 - 2015-11-22 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+15.5 units)

NFL > (471) SAN FRANCISCO@ (472) SEATTLE | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 1 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-9.45 units)

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (455) DALLAS@ (456) MIAMI | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON DALLAS ?>in the first halfin Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)

NFL > (455) DALLAS@ (456) MIAMI | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON DALLAS ?>in the first halfin All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)

NFL > (459) ST LOUIS@ (460) BALTIMORE | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (459) ST LOUIS@ (460) BALTIMORE | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (461) NY JETS@ (462) HOUSTON | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.4 units)

NFL TOTALS

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play OVER OAKLAND on the totalin All games in non-conference games
The record is 9 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY@ (466) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play UNDER PHILADELPHIA on the totalin All games against conference opponents
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play OVER OAKLAND on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND@ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Play OVER OAKLAND on the totalin All games in November games
The record is 10 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (475) BUFFALO@ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Play UNDER BUFFALO on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (471) SAN FRANCISCO@ (472) SEATTLE | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Play UNDER SEATTLE on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

[StarDust Bum]

TOP POWER LINES

NFL > (457) INDIANAPOLIS @ (458) ATLANTA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: INDIANAPOLIS BTB PowerLine: INDIANAPOLIS-1
Edge On: INDIANAPOLIS (3.5)

NFL > (467) DENVER @ (468) CHICAGO | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: DENVER BTB PowerLine: DENVER5
Edge On: DENVER (3)

NFL > (453) OAKLAND @ (454) DETROIT | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: DETROIT1 BTB PowerLine: DETROIT-1
Edge On: DETROIT (2)

NFL > (459) ST LOUIS @ (460) BALTIMORE | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: BALTIMORE0 BTB PowerLine: BALTIMORE-2
Edge On: BALTIMORE (2)

NFL > (455) DALLAS @ (456) MIAMI | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: MIAMI1 BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-1
Edge On: MIAMI (2)

NFL > (451) WASHINGTON @ (452) CAROLINA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA-7 BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA-8
Edge On: CAROLINA (1)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY @ (466) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: PHILADELPHIA-6 BTB PowerLine: PHILADELPHIA-14
Edge On: PHILADELPHIA (8)

NFL > (461) NY JETS @ (462) HOUSTON | 2015-11-22 13:00:00 - 2015-11-22 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON3 BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON-2
Edge On: HOUSTON (5)

NFL > (473) KANSAS CITY @ (474) SAN DIEGO | 2015-11-22 16:05:00 - 2015-11-22 16:05:00
Line: KANSAS CITY BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY11
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (8)

NFL > (471) SAN FRANCISCO @ (472) SEATTLE | 2015-11-22 16:25:00 - 2015-11-22 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-13.5 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-17
Edge On: SEATTLE (3.5)

NFL > (475) BUFFALO @ (476) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-11-23 20:30:00 - 2015-11-23 20:30:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND-7 BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND-15
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (8)

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action
November 20, 2015


DENVER BRONCOS (7-2) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-5)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Chicago -1, Total: 41

The Broncos have a new quarterback at the helm when they visit the Bears on Sunday for a Windy City showdown.

It’s a changing of the guard for Denver (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS), who has benched the struggling and injury-riddled future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning in favor of backup QB Brock Osweiler. The swap comes on the heels of a two-game slide punctuated by a 29-13 lashing at home against the Chiefs in Week 10, though the Broncos have maintained their position atop the AFC West.

Chicago (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS), meanwhile, is hoping its season has turned a corner after ripping off two straight wins on the road as part of four victories in the past six games. The all-time series between the two is tied up at 7-7 SU, with a QB Tim Tebow-led Denver squad beating a Chicago team helmed by QB Caleb Hanie 13-10 in their last meeting in 2011.

This matchup also features Bears head coach John Fox facing his former Broncos team for the first time since he switched jobs. There are lots of reasons to back either side, as Denver is 21-10 ATS in games played on a grass field since 2013, and Fox's replacement, Gary Kubiak, is 10-2 ATS on the road versus excellent ball-control teams (32+ avg. time of possession) in his head coaching career.

However, Fox is 38-21 ATS in his coaching career after allowing 14 points or less in the previous game since 1992 and his new club is 19-6 ATS against AFC West opponents since 1996.

On the injury front, Manning (foot) is the big name, but fellow star teammates LB DeMarcus Ware (back, doubtful) and WR Emmanuel Sanders (head, questionable) are also unsure to play. Chicago could be missing RB Matt Forte, WR Eddie Royal and LB Pernell McPhee, who are all questionable with knee injuries, but top WR Alshon Jeffery (groin) has been upgraded to probable.

Denver’s offense has been middle-of-the-road in terms of generating points, with the team averaging 22.8 PPG (17th in NFL). Under QB Peyton Manning, the team averaged 246 passing YPG (18th in league), while tallying just 10 TD through the air (25th in NFL) and a league-worst 18 interceptions.

Fourth-year QB Brock Osweiler, whom the Broncos hope will give the offense a jolt in Manning’s absence, has seen action just once this season, completing 14-of-24 passes for 146 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. Denver has had difficulty establishing a solid running game this season, tallying the fourth-fewest rushing attempts (23) and rushing YPG (86) in the league.

RBs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson have traded off starts and workloads throughout the season, though Hillman seems to have established himself as the team’s lead back, carrying the ball 11 times for 42 yards and a score in last week’s game, compared to Anderson’s two touches for nine yards.

The Broncos’ defense has been key to the team’s success this season, allowing opponents just 18.7 PPG (3rd in NFL), holding teams to a league-best 277.3 YPG, and sacking opposing quarterbacks a league-leading 32.0 times. The club will welcome the return of CB Aqib Talib, who served a one-game suspension last week and leads the team with three interceptions – two of which he returned for touchdowns, and will be closely monitoring the injury to LB DeMarcus Ware, who leads the team in sacks (6.5).

Chicago’s offense has been below-average this season, producing 22.1 PPG (20th in NFL) and generating 352.7 YPG (16th in league), though in its past three games, it has averaged 26.3 PPG and 382.7 YPG.

Veteran QB Jay Cutler, who has led his team on three game-winning drives this season, looked solid in last week’s game against the St. Louis Rams, connecting on 19-of-24 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie RB Jeremy Langford, filling in for an injured Matt Forte, was the primary recipient of Cutler’s largesse, catching seven passes for 109 yards and a touchdown, as well as rushing 20 times for 73 yards and a score.

Cutler found chemistry with backup TE Zach Miller as well, connecting with him on 5-out-of-5 attempts for 107 yards and two touchdowns. Star WR Alshon Jeffrey had a quiet game last week (3 catches for 23 yards), but still averages 103.0 YPG, which is tied for third in the league.

The Bears’ defense has been generous in giving up points (26.0 PPG, 24th in NFL), and hasn’t been particularly successful generating turnovers (11, 22nd in league). The squad has been able to hold opposing quarterbacks to just 217 passing YPG (4th in NFL), though it has given up 17 TD through the air (23rd in league).

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-5) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (9-0)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -7, Total: 45

The NFC’s lone unbeaten team will look to keep their perfect season intact on Sunday when the Panthers host the Redskins, who are looking to stay in the thick of a tight division race.

Washington (4-5 SU and ATS) comes in to Week 11 on the heels of its greatest offensive performance in years last week against the Saints.

The team’s 47 points were their most since Week 7 of the 2005 season, their 225 rushing yards were their most since Week 7 of the 2012 season, and their 526 total yards were the most since Week 11 of the 1991 season, the same year they went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl. The victory moved them into a tie for 2nd place in the NFC East, just a half-game back of the division-leading Giants.

Carolina (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) outplayed the Titans last week on their way to a dominating 27-10 victory, holding Tennessee to 242 total yards, the fewest yards allowed by the Panthers’ defense this season.

Betting trends heavily favor the Panthers, but recent head-to-head history leans in favor of Washington, as does the early money, as more than 75% of bets are taking Washington to cover the seven-point spread. Washington is 14-27 ATS the last three seasons, 11-22 ATS over that same time frame as an underdog, 5-14 as a road underdog.

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is 25-7 ATS following a road game, including 9-2 ATS over the last two years. Rivera’s history with Carolina against teams below .500 has been highly successful, as he’s 19-9 ATS against such teams since taking over.

Washington’s Kirk Cousins is 9-14 ATS in his career, while Cam Newton is 42-31 ATS in his career, including 2-0 against Washington. Historically, Washington is 4-1 ATS in games at Carolina since 1992, and are 39-23 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points in that same time frame. Both teams come into the game mostly healthy.

For Washington, reserve WR Andre Roberts (ankle) and starting LB Keenan Robinson (neck/shoulder) are both questionable. For Carolina, both reserve DT Dwan Edwards (ankle) and starting G Andrew Norwell (hamstring) are questionable.

Washington’s defense has struggled as of late. After allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in any of their first four games, they’ve allowed at least 150 rushing yards in each of their last five games. They’re currently allowing 135.3 rushing YPG (30th in NFL).

Historically, they’re 20-75 ATS when allowing at least 150 yards since 1992. Offensively, Kirk Cousins is going to try to do something close to what he did against the Saints a week ago. He absolutely lit up New Orleans for 324 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. This Carolina defense is much better, but he should be able to help his team put some points on the board.

Carolina will look to expose Washington’s recent defensive woes early and often; Newton and company enter Week 11 averaging 139.7 rushing YPG (3rd in NFL). The Panthers are 58-17 ATS when rushing for more than 125 yards since ’92, including 5-1 this season.

As for the Panthers defense, in terms of yardage, the unit has been good this year, allowing 338 YPG (10th in the league), but it’s been their ability to force turnovers, notably their 14 interceptions (T-1st in NFL) that has helped them hold opponents to just 19.4 PPG (6th in NFL).

Cam Newton has had good success against Washington, winning both of their matchups in his career, completing 67% of his passes, while accounting for four TDs (two each passing and rushing) and zero INTs.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2)
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Minnesota -1, Total: 44.5

First place in the NFC North will be on the line Sunday when the struggling Packers travel to Minnesota to take on the surging Vikings.

Green Bay (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), which started 5-0 SU and ATS, has now lost three in a row SU and four straight ATS following an 18-16 loss to the previously one-win Lions on Sunday. The Packers’ 47 rushing yards were their fewest since Week 13 of the 2013 season. Green Bay enters this divisional match-up as an underdog for the first time this season.

Minnesota (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS), winners of five straight following a 2-2 start, grounded and pounded the Raiders to the tune of 263 rushing yards on Sunday in a 30-14 win in Oakland. Minnesota’s rushing total was the highest mark by the team since Week 14 of the 2011 season.

The betting trends favor Minnesota, though one should really never look too far past Aaron Rodgers, who’s 52-35 ATS in his career. Minnesota is 14-5 ATS following a road game the last three years, and are 15-4 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over that same time period.

Green Bay is 27-57 ATS when allowing at least 150 rushing yards since 1992, while Minnesota is 34-17 when rushing for 150 to 175 yards in that same time frame. More recently, Minnesota is 10-0 ATS over the last three years when rushing for at least 125 yards, a mark the Green Bay defense has allowed four times this season.

Both coaches have had success with their respective teams, with Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy going 94-66 ATS since taking over, including a 39-19 mark in divisional games, while Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer is 18-7 ATS since taking over prior to the 2014 season.

Both teams come into the game fairly healthy. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy (groin) and WR Ty Montgomery (ankle) are both questionable. For Minnesota, LB Eric Kendricks (ribs) and DE Justin Trattou (ankle) are also both questionable.

Green Bay’s offense has averaged 344.3 YPG this season (21st in NFL), a large decline from both 2014 and 2013, when they averaged more than 386 YPG each season and finished both years ranked inside the Top 6 in total offense. The Packers, historically, have had late season success, going 63-38 ATS against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season since 1992.

Their recent success as an underdog has not gone as well, as they’re 2-8 ATS the last three years, including 1-6 in road games with a spread of seven points or less. Aaron Rodgers has had a great deal of success against the Vikings in his career, winning 10 of his 14 starts SU while throwing 31 TDs against just 4 INTs with a completion percentage greater than 70%.

Minnesota has loved getting Adrian Peterson back this season. The Vikings are currently averaging 147.2 rushing YPG (1st in NFL), a year after averaging just 112.8 rushing YPG (14th in NFL). Even better for Peterson and company is the Packers’ poor run defense, currently allowing 116.2 YPG (24th in NFL). He should be able to have a very nice game against a familiar foe on Sunday.

Another guy to look out for is Stefon Diggs, who has surprised everybody with 30 receptions for 507 yards and two touchdowns this season. He’ll look to break free against this Packers defense for a big play on Sunday. On defense, the Vikings have quietly built one of the most reliable units in the NFL, currently allowing just 17.1 PPG (2nd in NFL), just .2 PPG behind top-ranked Cincinnati.

[StarDust Bum]

Fitzpatrick to face former team when Jets visit Texans
November 21, 2015

HOUSTON (AP) The New York Jets will start Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday against the Houston Texans after he had thumb surgery last week.

In Houston the quarterback situation continues to be an issue and the Texans will start their third different player at the position on Sunday with Brian Hoyer out with a concussion.

With Hoyer out, T.J. Yates will get his first start since he was a rookie on Jan. 15, 2012, when the Texans lost 20-13 to the Ravens in the playoffs. The Texans picked up Brandon Weeden off waivers on Wednesday and he'll back up Yates on Sunday.

For Fitzpatrick, it's a chance to face a former team that traded him after last season. He started 12 games for Houston in 2014.

''The fact that they didn't necessarily want me at the end of the year plays into it a little bit for me, just from the personal standpoint,'' Fitzpatrick said.

''But it's not a big thing, other than we're out there trying to win a game, get back on track. So the personal stuff has to be set aside and I've got to try to win a football game.''

The surgery was to repair a torn ligament on the left thumb of the right-handed quarterback. He played two games with the injury before having surgery last Friday. Fitzpatrick said there are factors other than tolerating the pain that he's dealing with in the wake of the surgery.

''If it was that easy, then for sure there wouldn't an issue,'' he said. ''There's just an issue with - fresh off a surgery, just making sure everything stays clean, the incision and all that. There's a couple different factors that are playing into it.''

The Jets are coming off a loss to the Bills and Houston has won two straight, capped by Monday night's victory over previously undefeated Cincinnati.

Yates took over after Hoyer was injured in that one and accounted for the only touchdown of the night with a TD pass to DeAndre Hopkins. He expects playing this week to be a bit easier because he got almost all the snaps with the first team in practice.

''Some of those plays I ran in the game were the first time I've ever run them, period, practice or game,'' he said. ''So you feel more comfortable going in, getting more reps during the week.''

Some things to know about the Jets-Texans game.

RUNNING WOES: The Texans are averaging 87.2 yards rushing this season, which ranks 28th in the league. The challenge to improve the running game will be even more difficult when they face a defense that ranks first in the NFL against the run, allowing 88.1 yards a game. Houston has started Alfred Blue in the two games since Arian Foster was lost for the season, but has managed just 61 yards rushing combined in those games. The Texans will also use Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes to try to jumpstart the running game.

DYNAMIC DUO: Jets wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall have touchdown catches in the same game five times this season. Decker has a team-leading seven, while Marshall has six. Both players are in the top five among NFL wide receivers in touchdowns since 2010, with Marshall (46) in third place and Decker (45) tied with Green Bay's Jordy Nelson for fourth.

HOPKINS' HEALTH: Hopkins has missed practice this week with a knee injury, but said Thursday that he's fine and will play on Sunday. Hopkins is third in the NFL with 927 yards receiving and his seven touchdown receptions are tied for fourth in the league. ''DeAndre's played a lot of football for us, so I think he'll remember the plays and I think he'll be ready to go,'' O'Brien said.

BANGED-UP: The Jets were unsure whether they'd have defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (hamstring) on Sunday. Coach Todd Bowles said Richardson would be a game-time decision. Antonio Cromartie (bruised thigh) missed the Jets' previous game against Buffalo after being hurt early against Jacksonville, but is expected to play Sunday. Safety Calvin Pryor is expected to play after missing three games, and backup running back Bilal Powell could return after sitting for four games - both because of high ankle sprains.

MACC'S BACK: The game marks the return to Houston for Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan, who worked in the Texans front office for 15 years before being hired by New York in January. Maccagnan, Houston's director of college scouting the past four years, worked closely with Texans GM Rick Smith during their time together and counts him as one of the biggest influences on his professional life.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Redskins (4-5) @ Panthers (9-0)-- Carolina is 7-2 vs spread this season, 3-2 at home; they allowed 20+ points in five of last seven games, ran ball for 119+ yards in last eight games. Panthers won last three series games; seven of last nine in series were decided by 4 or less points. Washington is 4-0 when it scores 23+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't; they're 1-3 as a road dog, losing away games by 11-6-14-17 points. Redskins lost last three visits here, by 3-3-13 points. Underdogs are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Saints; favorites are 1-4 week after playing Titans. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-8 vs spread, 2-5 on road; NFC South favorites are 10-7, 6-4 at home. Three of last four Redskin games, five of last seven Panther games went over total.

Raiders (4-5) @ Lions (2-7)-- Detroit split last four games since 0-5 start; they've changed lot of coaches/GM, but they're off first win at Lambeau since '91- teams are 2-5 SU week after playing Packers. Since 2007, Raiders are 6-18 vs spread when favored, 0-2 this year; Oakland is 4-1 when scoring 27+ points, 0-4 when they score less- this is Raiders' first tilt this year on artificial turf- they're 9-3 vs spread on carpet last 5+ years. Four of Detroit's last five foes scored 28+ points. Lions won last three series games by 10-1-15 points; Raiders are 2-3 in visits here. NFC North teams are 14-9 vs spread out of division, 1-3 as home dogs; AFC West teams are 12-15, 1-3 as road faves. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Raider games, 4-1 in last five Lion games.

Cowboys (2-7) @ Dolphins (4-5)-- Romo expected back under center for Dallas, which lost all seven games in his absence- wouldn't expect miracles here- how good is his conditioning? Miami is 3-2 since coaching change; they're 0-4 when allowing 27+ points, 4-1 if allowing less- Fish are playing just third home game- they split pair of one-sided games. Dallas lost last three road games, by 6-7-4 points; their only road win was at Philly, where Miami won last week. Pokes won last two series games 37-20/20-19; they've won last two visits here. Teams are 0-6 SU week after playing Bucs, 5-3 after playing Eagles. NFC East squads are 8-13 vs spread out of division; AFC East teams are 12-9-1. Miami ran ball for just 73.3 ypg in last three games. Over is 5-3 in last eight Dolphin games.

Colts (4-5) @ Falcons (6-3)-- 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck gets nod for Colts, who won his other two starts (over Jags/Texans). Indy won/covered eight of last ten post-bye games; they're 13-2 in last 15 games vs Falcons, winning seven of last eight here, but their last visit here was in '07. Atlanta won last six post-bye games (5-1 vs spread); they limped into bye, losing three of last four games after 5-0 start- their last two wins are by 6 in OT, 3 points. Falcons were -6 in turnovers in last five games, after being +6 in first four. Colts are 2-3 SU in last five games, but 4-0 vs spread as an underdog. Four of last five Indy games went over; four of last five Falcon games stayed under. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 10-7, 6-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-7, 5-5 on road.

Rams (4-5) @ Ravens (2-7)-- St Louis was so putrid last week (0-12 on passes 10+ yards downfield) they're switching to Keenum at QB here. Rams are 22-102 on third down in last eight games; Welker's first game didn't help any, but it will in time. All eight Ravens games have been decided by 8 or less points; Ravens are Rams are 3-0 in division games, 1-5 in all others; they're 1-2 as road dogs this year, losing on road by 14-14-3 points. Home side won four of last five series games (Ravens 3-2). Underdogs are 0-2 week after playing Chicago; favorites are 1-2 after playing Jaguars. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 4-7 against spread; AFC North home teams are 6-5. Six of last eight St Louis games stayed under; three of four Raven home games went over.

Jets (5-4) @ Texans (4-5)-- Houston is tied for first in AFC South; they've won last couple games, not allowing TD either game. Hoyer had concussion Monday; unsure of his status- #3 QB Yates would take his place- they cut their #2 QB. Jets are +12 in turnovers in five wins, -9 in four losses; they lost last two road games, allowing 32 ppg. Texans allowed only 467 TY last two games, 159 on ground; they allowed 9 or less points in three of four wins, are 1-5 allowing double figure points. Houston turned ball over twice in last four games (+7) Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Bengals. AFC East teams are 12-9-1 vs spread out of division, AFC South teams 10-14. Four of last five Jet games, four of last six Houston games went over total.

Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (7-2)-- Unlikely scenario has Minnesota in first place here; they've won five games in row, covered last eight; they're 4-0 at home, allowing 14.5 ppg. Packers lost last three games, with no sacks; they had 23 sacks during 6-0 start. Green Bay is 9-1-1 in last 11 games with Minnesota; five of their last six series wins were by 9+ points. Must be noted that this is Green Bay's first game on carpet this year; they're 1-7 vs spread in last eight games on fake grass. Packers lost last two road games, but both foes were unbeaten at time; Peterson looks like old self; Vikings ran ball for 148.8 ypg in last four games. Throw in Bridgewater's mobility and thats why they've improved. Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under total; over is 4-2-1 in last seven Minnesota games.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Eagles (4-5)-- Looks like Sanchez starts at QB for fading Philly, after they blew early 16-3 lead at home last week. Eagles are 4-1 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they score less- they've split four home games. Tampa allowed 30+ points in four of last six games; they're 3-1 as road dogs, losing by 10 in Houston, 1 in Washington. Philly won last three games with Bucs by 19-2-11 points. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC South underdogs are 6-4, 4-3 on road. Teams are 5-2 week after playing Miami, 2-4-1 week after playing Dallas. Seven of last nine Philly games stayed under total; four of last six Tampa games went over. Tampa Bay covered four of last five games overall. Philly scored TD on defense/special teams in three of its four wins.

Broncos (7-2) @ Bears (4-5)-- Osweiler gets first NFL start in his 4th year; he's thrown 54 career passes. Arizona State was 6-7 the only year he was their starter. Denver fired Fox 10 months ago; now they meet again here, with former Bronco QB Cutler leading a Bear squad that won four of last six games after an 0-3 start. Chicago has allowed six TDs on offense or special teams, two more than any other team; they're 1-3 at home with only win 22-20 over Oakland. Broncos lost last two games after a 7-0 start. AFC West teams are 6-8 vs spread on road outside its division; NFC North teams are 7-4 at home. Three of last four Chicago games went over total. Osweiler's backup is Northwestern rookie Siemian. Teams split 14 series games overall, with last two going to overtime.

Bengals (8-1) @ Cardinals (7-2)-- Carson Palmer once threatened to quit rather than play for the Bengals; now he plays here against them, for 7-2 Cardinals who have 3-game lead in NFC West after 39-32 win in Seattle LW. Redbirds are 21 of last 33 on third down; in only two losses, they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cincy is 11-3-1 in last 15 games as a dog; they're on short week after Monday night loss at home to Texans. Home side won nine of last ten series games; Bengals lost 28-7/17-14 in last two visits here, with last visit here in 2003. Seven of nine Arizona games went over total; last three Bengal games stayed under. NFC North teams are 13-11-1 vs spread out of division, 6-5-1 as dogs NFC West favorites are 6-7, 3-4 at home. Don't tell CBS, but this is a potential Super Bowl matchup.

49ers (3-6) @ Seahawks (4-5)-- Seattle hasn't allowed offensive TD in any of its wins, lost all five games when they allowed a TD; they are 0-5 when allowing more than 12 points. Seahawks (-6.5) beat 49ers 20-3 four weeks ago in a Thursday game, running for 176 yards. Seattle is 1-3 as home favorite, losing last two home games to Panthers/Cards. Niners lost last four visits here (three by 10+ points); five of last six series totals were 36 or less. SF is 1-3 as road underdog, losing away games by an average score of 37-15. Since 1990, 49ers are 1-6 vs spread as a post-bye underdog; they're 2-8-1 in last 11 post-bye games. Dogs off a bye this season are 8-3 vs spread. Teams are 0-8 vs spread week after playing Arizona. Under is 5-3 in last eight Seattle games, 3-0 in last three Niner tilts.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Chargers (2-7)-- KC has +10 turnover ratio during 3-game win streak that includes easy win at Denver LW; they were -2 in turnovers the first six games. Chiefs won 23-20/19-7 in last two games vs San Diego, after losing 11 of previous 13 series games. KC lost six of last seven visits here, with three of six losses by 3 or less points. San Diego has only one TD drive of less than 60 yards all season, least in league; they've lost five games in row, all by 8 or less points. Bolts lost last three home games, allowing 27.7 ppg. Teams are 1-4 vs spread week after playing Denver. San Diego is 1-6 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Chief games. For season, Chargers started four drives in enemy territory, their opponents 16. Six of last seven series totals were 43+.

Bills (5-4) @ Patriots (9-0)-- NE (+1) won first meeting 40-32 in Week 2, throwing for 451 yards- two of its four TD drives were 13-30 yards, thanks to three takeaways (+1). Pats are 27-3 in last 30 series games; Buffalo's 17-9 win here LY was its first in last 14 visits to Foxboro. Bills are 2-0 since bye, running for 207 ypg; they're 3-0 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Patriots are 3-0-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 7-34-7-29-17 points- they needed 54-yard FG at gun LW in Swamp to stay unbeaten. Patriots lead NFL with 12 TD drives of less than 60 yards; their defense/special teams set offense up for shorter drives. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-21-1 vs spread. Three of last four Buffalo games went over total; last three Patriot games stayed under.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

Adrian Peterson has helped the Vikings post 39 runs of 10 or more yards, and now faces a Packers team that has allowed 31 runs of 10 or more yards in Week 11.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 45.5)

Bucs’ short secondary vs. Eagles’ tall targets

Mark Sanchez could be making the throws for the Eagles this weekend, with starting QB Sam Bradford sidelined with a nasty combo of shoulder injury/concussion. If the backup is under center, it’s a good thing Philadelphia’s receivers have a big size advantage over their defenders Sunday. The Eagles roll out a receiving corps bigger than most and have been instituting a lot of two-tight end sets in recent weeks, putting even more beef on the field.

Top WR Jordan Matthews stands 6-foot-3, Riley Cooper is 6-foot-4, Miles Austin is 6-foot-2, and rookie WR is 6-foot-1. Throw tight ends Brent Celek (6-foot-4) and Zach Ertz (6-foot-5) into the mix and the Eagles are winning the majority of jump balls and giving whichever QB is playing a large berth to throw to.

Tampa Bay has a diminutive set of corners with starters Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah standing 5-foot-10 and 5-foot-11 respectively. Fellow CBs Mike Jenkins and Alterraun Verner are also 5-foot-10. The Bucs have done well against the pass and haven’t given up to many deep plays, but could have a tough time measuring up Philadelphia’s big men.

Daily fantasy watch: Jordan Matthews WR

New York Jets at Houston Texans (N/A)

Jets’ pass defense vs. Texans’ dropped passes

Only one team in the NFL has thrown the ball more than the Texans at this point (San Diego), with Houston averaging almost 44 throws per game and passing the ball on 63.46 percent of its offensive snaps this season. So it comes as no surprise that the Texans top the league in drops – the math makes sense.

However, looking at the percentage of balls dropped by Houston receivers shows that not only are the Texans receivers busy but their also careless, posting a drop percentage of 6.1, according to sportingcharts.com. That number could go up – and Houston’s competition percentage could go down (56.71%, fourth worst) – with backup QB T.J. Yates taking over for the concussed Brian Hoyer in Week 11.

Yates and a dumbed-down playbook face a tough Jets pass defense that tops the league in opposing completion percentage, allowing foes to connect on just 57 percent of their throws. New York has 10 interceptions on the season, and plenty to prove after giving up some big numbers to opponents in past weeks. The secondary has been blasted by the Big Apple media but did allow just 158 yards on 17-of-27 passing in a loss to the Bills last week. Star corner Darrelle Revis will be assigned to Texans stud wideout DeAndre Hopkins.

Daily fantasy watch: New York D/ST

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 44.5)

Packers’ big play problems vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

My how the tables have turned in the NFC North. The Vikings find themselves atop the division table and set as a home favorite against the once-mighty Packers in Week 11. A big part of Minnesota’s success so far has been the resurgence of Adrian Peterson, who was a question mark coming into the year following his season-long absence due to child abuse case in 2014.

“All Day” has proven doubters wrong and is coming off his biggest effort of the season, rushing for 203 yards and a touchdown versus Oakland last week. Peterson picked up the bulk of those gains with an 80-yard TD rush and has posted 18 runs of 40 or more yards throughout his career. He’s helped the Vikings rumble for 10 or more yards 39 times this season – second most in the NFL.

Green Bay has allowed 116.2 yards on the ground per game and have given up 4.2 yards per rush attempt. The Packers' biggest issue is stopping the running back before they can pick up steam, allowing 31 runs of 10 yards or more heading into Week 11 – fifth most in the NFL. The last time the Cheeseheads faced Peterson, they gave up 146 yards on the ground and a score to No. 28.

Daily fantasy watch: Adrian Peterson RB

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 48.5)

Andy Dalton’s primetime problems vs. Cardinals’ sneaky secondary

There’s the Andy Dalton we know. After defying his past catalogue of blunder for eight games, the Bengals quarterback fell back into bad habits during his team’s first loss of the season to Houston on Monday Night Football. Dalton, who was making a push for NFL MVP, passed for just 197 yards on 22-of-38 passes with one interception and a big goose egg in the touchdown column – the first time this season he hasn’t connected for a score.

Dalton is known for poor performance under the primetime lights, but was shaking that stigma. In the three game prior to last week’s loss, the Red Rocket had seven touchdowns, only three INTs and boasted a completion rate of over 72 percent. However, in his first eight night games, Dalton had seven touchdowns to eight picks and failed to complete even 53 percent of his throws.

He gets a second shot to right the ship with Cincinnati co-headlining the Sunday Night Football broadcast, but his opponent doesn’t play well with other quarterbacks. The Cardinals have one of the most entertaining secondaries in football, and sit tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions. Arizona has limited opposing passers to just 58.46 percent completions – fifth lowest – and give up only 6.2 yards when foes actually do connect with the football.

Daily fantasy watch: Arizona D/ST

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NFL

Sunday, November 22


Chance of thunderstorms in Miami Sunday afternoon

According to weather forecasts, there is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms and rain at Sun Life Stadium in Miami when the Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures in Miami are expected to be in the high-70s while wind is forecast to blow across the field at around 12 miles per hour.

Current lines have the Dolphins as 1-point home underdogs and the total at 46.5.


Raiders struggling versus NFC opponents

The Oakland Raiders have made impressive strides to get to a 4-5 straight up record this season but they have been costing their backers in games against the NFC in recent seasons.

The Raiders have gone 1-15 SU and 6-9-1 against the spread in their last 16 games versus teams from the other conference. Included in there is an 0-2 SU and ATS mark this season thanks to losses to the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.

Their meetings with the NFC North continues as they travel to face the Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon. Books opened the Raiders as 1-point road faves but that has since moved to +1.


Lions have been costing backers in home games

It's been a frustrating season for the Detroit Lions, their fans and their backers, who have felt the sting of a 2-7 record against the spread this season.

But where the Lions have really cost their backers is, perhaps surprisingly, at home. The Lions head into Sunday's date with the Oakland Raiders 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) in their four home games.

Books opened the Lions as 1-point home dogs for Sunday's contest, but that has moved to Lions -1.


Once among the best bets, Falcons on horrible stretch

It seems like a distant memory that the Atlanta Falcons were 4-0 against the spread and among the best wagers in the NFL. Since beginning the season as a red hot wager, the Falcons have done a 180 and turned into a team that is costing bettors week in, week out.

The Falcons have lost their last five games ATS and, while favored in each contest, have lost three of those straight up (at New Orleans, vs. Tampa Bay, at San Francisco).

Can they right the ship against Matt Hasslebeck and the Indianapolis Colts at home Sunday afternoon? Books opened the Falcons as 6-point home faves and that has since moved to -5.

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NFL

Sunday, November 22

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Bengals at Cardinals
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Carson Palmer is 20-4 in his last 24 starts with Arizona.

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 48.5)

After prevailing in a high-profile prime-time matchup at Seattle last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals face another daunting change when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night in a battle of division leaders. It will mark only the second home game in an eight-game span for Arizona, which has won three straight to open a three-game lead in the NFC West.

Cincinnati may have got caught looking ahead to Arizona in a 10-6 loss to Houston on Monday night that ended its perfect 8-0 start to the season. “We just have to put this one behind us,” Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton said. “We can’t let this turn into another one. We can’t let there be any carry over." Cincinnati still holds a 2 1/2-game lead over Pittsburgh atop the AFC North as it prepares for a matchup with ex-Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer, who was traded in 2011 after a bitter standoff with team management. "It's not just another game," said Palmer, who will lead Arizona's top-ranked offense against a defense permitting an NFL-low 16.9 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Cardinals as 3.5-point home faves, but that has moved to -4.5. The total is up to 48.5 from the opening 47.

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - DE Carlos Dunlap (Probable, shoulder), S Shawn Williams (Probable, ankle), T Andre Smith (Probable, concussion), DT Marcus Hardison (Questionable, knee), DE Michael Johnson (Doubtful, back), CB Adam Jones (Doubtful, foot), DT Pat Sims (Doubtful, knee), LB Sean Porter (I-R, knee), WR James Wright (I-R, knee), T Cedric Ogbuehi (I-R, knee).

Cardinals - WR Larry Fitzgerald (Probable, ankle), CB Justin Bethel (Probable, illness), G Mike Iupati (Probable, neck), LB Markus Golden (Questionable, ankle), WR John Brown (Questionable, hamstring), WR Michael Floyd (Questionable, hamstring), DE Cory Redding (Out, ankle), G Jonathan Cooper (Out, knee), LB Daryl Washington (Out indefinitely, suspension), LB Kenny Demens (I-R, knee), TE Ifeanyi Momah (I-R, knee), DT Corey Peters (I-R, Achilles), TE Gerald Christian (I-R, knee).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-6) + Cardinals (-5) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -2

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It''s like clockwork. Get Andy Dalton in a big game under the lights and he forgets how to play quarterback. Same story with Marvin Lewis and his ability to coach! Arizona's protection schemes broke down after lineman Mike Iupati was carted off the field on Sunday Night. The good news for Zona is that he could be back on the field by Sunday."

ABOUT THE BENGALS (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Dalton had been a model of efficiency during the first eight games, but he was held under 200 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time while getting sacked four times on Monday. Running back Jeremy Hill has been unable to follow up on his stellar rookie season, failing to reach the end zone during a five-game span in which he's rushed for 196 yards. A.J. Green remains Dalton's favorite target with 55 receptions, while Cincinnati's defense has racked up 26 sacks and held each of its last three opponents to 10 points.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Palmer, who is second in the league with 23 scoring passes, overcame three turnovers to direct two fourth-quarter touchdown drives of at least 80 yards to knock off the Seahawks. While Larry Fitzgerald already has 65 catches, Arizona has injury concerns at wideout as Michael Floyd missed his second day of practice and John Brown was limited Thursday due to hamstring injuries. The Cardinals have recorded only 15 sacks, but they have a secondary capable of matching up with Green and Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert (9 TDs).

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Bengals last seven games in November.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of users are backing the Cardinals.