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Total Talk - Week 11
November 21, 2015
The ‘under’ produced an 8-4-2 record last week and based on where you play, you could’ve easily seen three pushes if you got in a tad early on the Giants-Patriots. For our purposes, we graded it as an ‘under’ while the two other late games (KC-DEN, MIN-OAK) both ended as pushes and those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. A late touchdown by the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson helped or hurt some bettors and two meaningless scores by the Broncos didn’t bode well for others. After 10 weeks of action, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 74-69-3 (52%) this season.
Non-Conference Unders
Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 26-14-1 (65%) in non-conference and that includes a 4-2-1 record the past two weeks. We talked about the aforementioned push above in the Vikings-Raiders game and the possible winner or loser in the Giants-Patriots game if you caught a generous line of 53 ½.
We have six more AFC-NFC Matchups on tap for Sunday and here’s my quick handicap on each contest.
Oakland at Detroit: This total (50) is screaming for ‘over’ action and while the Raiders have been competitive this season, their defense, especially against the pass (293 YPG) is awful. I believe both clubs should get at least four to five scores in this game and as long as the kickers aren't active, this has a good shot to go high.
Indianapolis at Atlanta: Must-win spot for the Falcons at home and they’re coming off the bye. Atlanta on a 5-0 ‘under’ run and you’d believe the Colts’ Matt Hasselbeck will be a game-manager and try to keep it close and steal one on the road. The Colts have allowed 29 and 27 in two losses to NFC South opponents this season.
Dallas at Miami: Even though QB Tony Romo returns for Dallas, I expect the Cowboys to run against Miami’s 31st rushing defense (135.6 YPG). This is only the 3rd true home game for Miami this season and the ‘over’ cashed in the first two. The Dolphins are 2-0 versus NFC East this season, both 'under' winners.
St. Louis at Baltimore: Very hard total to handicap with the QB change for the Rams (Case Keenum) and Baltimore has been very inconsistent on offense due to key injuries. St. Louis has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 on the road largely because it can’t score (15.5 PPG). The Rams 1-1 versus AFC North this season, allowing a total of 18 points in games against the Steelers and Browns.
Denver at Chicago: Another QB change in this game with Brock Osweiler taking over for the Broncos. Denver’s once highly touted defense has allowed 27 and 29 the last two weeks. QB Jay Cutler gets a lot of credit for Chicago’s 4-2 winning run but the defense has been great (17.5 PPG) in the victories and not so good in the losses (30 PPG). With a win on Sunday, the Bears will have swept the AFC West this season. The 'under' 3-0 in first three against that group.
Cincinnati at Arizona: (See Below)
Head-to-Head
We only have three divisional games set for Sunday and they’re all slated in the late afternoon segment.
Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ cashed in both games last season but the ‘over’ hit in the four previous matchups. The Chargers are near the bottom of the league in defense (27.7 PPG) yet the ‘under’ has produced a 5-4 mark in their games. Most would expect a better effort at home from San Diego off the bye but the Chiefs defense is in great form, allowing 14 PPG in their last five, which has led to a 3-1-1 ‘under’ mark.
Green Bay at Minnesota: The ‘over’ has cashed in three of the last four encounters and the Packers have averaged 34 PPG during this span. The Packers have been a mess on offense lately and now they face arguably the best defense they’ve seen all season in the Vikings (17.1 PPG). Minnesota has been an incredible ‘under’ investment this season (7-1-1) and I’m a little surprised this total is listed at 44 ½ but that’s due to the public’s perception of the Packers. Make a note that this is the lowest number Green Bay has seen all season and it’s also been a great ‘under’ (6-3) play as well.
San Francisco at Seattle: This game has the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and the number seems fair based on recent meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and eight of the last 10, which includes Seattle’s 20-3 win over San Francisco on Oct. 22 this season. The 49ers made a QB change to Blaine Gabbert and he helped them to a 17-16 win. Despite that effort, San Francisco is still the worst offense (14 PPG) in the league and Seattle eats up these kind of players/teams at home. In all four of the wins by Seattle this season, the defense has allowed 25 points. I don’t expect them to lose here but I wouldn’t run to the betting counter and pound ‘under’ tickets right away because the 49ers have been torched on the road, allowing 36.8 PPG.
Under the Lights
Including Thursday’s low-scoring affair between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘under’ now owns a 22-10 (69%) record in primetime games this season. It’s never a good idea to chase bets but there are 17 night games left and I’d bet that at least eight of those games go to the high side but certainly not a sound investment.
Cincinnati at Arizona: This is a quality matchup and Arizona looks like a trap since it just posted a great win at Seattle in the national spotlight game on Sunday while Cincinnati was dominated to a weaker Houston team at home in the same setting on MNF. For the total, it’s hard to dismiss what the Cardinals did at Seattle last week but this Bengals unit is no slouch and actually better in points allowed (16.9 PPG) and close in YPG (338 YPG). Arizona is 7-2 to the ‘over’ but this number seems inflated and the Cardinals defense (17 PPG) has been great at home. On a side note, Arizona looks legit at 7-2 but they haven't beaten at team with a winning record this season and when stepping up in class, they lost to the Steelers 25-13 on the road.
Buffalo at New England: The Patriots blasted the Bills 40-32 in Week 2 and the ‘over’ (44 ½) cashed midway through the third quarter. Buffalo made the score respectable late but New England racked up 451 passing yards on Rex Ryan’s defense. As I noted in Week 2, Brady and Belichick have owned Rex and you’d have a tough argument believing the Bills will stop them on Monday. I will note that Buffalo has only allowed 14, 13 and 17 points in three road games played in the states this season. However, New England has scored 27 or more points in 12 of its last 13 meaningful games at home.
Fearless Predictions
We posted the bagel last week and even though a couple of our wagers looked solid early, they ended up losers. The deficit has reached four digits ($1,130) after 10 weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Philadelphia 45
Best Under: Washington-Carolina 45
Best Team Total: Under 14 San Francisco
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 36 Tampa Bay-Philadelphia
Under 53 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 49 ½ Chicago-Denver
November 21, 2015
The ‘under’ produced an 8-4-2 record last week and based on where you play, you could’ve easily seen three pushes if you got in a tad early on the Giants-Patriots. For our purposes, we graded it as an ‘under’ while the two other late games (KC-DEN, MIN-OAK) both ended as pushes and those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. A late touchdown by the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson helped or hurt some bettors and two meaningless scores by the Broncos didn’t bode well for others. After 10 weeks of action, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 74-69-3 (52%) this season.
Non-Conference Unders
Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 26-14-1 (65%) in non-conference and that includes a 4-2-1 record the past two weeks. We talked about the aforementioned push above in the Vikings-Raiders game and the possible winner or loser in the Giants-Patriots game if you caught a generous line of 53 ½.
We have six more AFC-NFC Matchups on tap for Sunday and here’s my quick handicap on each contest.
Oakland at Detroit: This total (50) is screaming for ‘over’ action and while the Raiders have been competitive this season, their defense, especially against the pass (293 YPG) is awful. I believe both clubs should get at least four to five scores in this game and as long as the kickers aren't active, this has a good shot to go high.
Indianapolis at Atlanta: Must-win spot for the Falcons at home and they’re coming off the bye. Atlanta on a 5-0 ‘under’ run and you’d believe the Colts’ Matt Hasselbeck will be a game-manager and try to keep it close and steal one on the road. The Colts have allowed 29 and 27 in two losses to NFC South opponents this season.
Dallas at Miami: Even though QB Tony Romo returns for Dallas, I expect the Cowboys to run against Miami’s 31st rushing defense (135.6 YPG). This is only the 3rd true home game for Miami this season and the ‘over’ cashed in the first two. The Dolphins are 2-0 versus NFC East this season, both 'under' winners.
St. Louis at Baltimore: Very hard total to handicap with the QB change for the Rams (Case Keenum) and Baltimore has been very inconsistent on offense due to key injuries. St. Louis has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 on the road largely because it can’t score (15.5 PPG). The Rams 1-1 versus AFC North this season, allowing a total of 18 points in games against the Steelers and Browns.
Denver at Chicago: Another QB change in this game with Brock Osweiler taking over for the Broncos. Denver’s once highly touted defense has allowed 27 and 29 the last two weeks. QB Jay Cutler gets a lot of credit for Chicago’s 4-2 winning run but the defense has been great (17.5 PPG) in the victories and not so good in the losses (30 PPG). With a win on Sunday, the Bears will have swept the AFC West this season. The 'under' 3-0 in first three against that group.
Cincinnati at Arizona: (See Below)
Head-to-Head
We only have three divisional games set for Sunday and they’re all slated in the late afternoon segment.
Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ cashed in both games last season but the ‘over’ hit in the four previous matchups. The Chargers are near the bottom of the league in defense (27.7 PPG) yet the ‘under’ has produced a 5-4 mark in their games. Most would expect a better effort at home from San Diego off the bye but the Chiefs defense is in great form, allowing 14 PPG in their last five, which has led to a 3-1-1 ‘under’ mark.
Green Bay at Minnesota: The ‘over’ has cashed in three of the last four encounters and the Packers have averaged 34 PPG during this span. The Packers have been a mess on offense lately and now they face arguably the best defense they’ve seen all season in the Vikings (17.1 PPG). Minnesota has been an incredible ‘under’ investment this season (7-1-1) and I’m a little surprised this total is listed at 44 ½ but that’s due to the public’s perception of the Packers. Make a note that this is the lowest number Green Bay has seen all season and it’s also been a great ‘under’ (6-3) play as well.
San Francisco at Seattle: This game has the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and the number seems fair based on recent meetings. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and eight of the last 10, which includes Seattle’s 20-3 win over San Francisco on Oct. 22 this season. The 49ers made a QB change to Blaine Gabbert and he helped them to a 17-16 win. Despite that effort, San Francisco is still the worst offense (14 PPG) in the league and Seattle eats up these kind of players/teams at home. In all four of the wins by Seattle this season, the defense has allowed 25 points. I don’t expect them to lose here but I wouldn’t run to the betting counter and pound ‘under’ tickets right away because the 49ers have been torched on the road, allowing 36.8 PPG.
Under the Lights
Including Thursday’s low-scoring affair between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘under’ now owns a 22-10 (69%) record in primetime games this season. It’s never a good idea to chase bets but there are 17 night games left and I’d bet that at least eight of those games go to the high side but certainly not a sound investment.
Cincinnati at Arizona: This is a quality matchup and Arizona looks like a trap since it just posted a great win at Seattle in the national spotlight game on Sunday while Cincinnati was dominated to a weaker Houston team at home in the same setting on MNF. For the total, it’s hard to dismiss what the Cardinals did at Seattle last week but this Bengals unit is no slouch and actually better in points allowed (16.9 PPG) and close in YPG (338 YPG). Arizona is 7-2 to the ‘over’ but this number seems inflated and the Cardinals defense (17 PPG) has been great at home. On a side note, Arizona looks legit at 7-2 but they haven't beaten at team with a winning record this season and when stepping up in class, they lost to the Steelers 25-13 on the road.
Buffalo at New England: The Patriots blasted the Bills 40-32 in Week 2 and the ‘over’ (44 ½) cashed midway through the third quarter. Buffalo made the score respectable late but New England racked up 451 passing yards on Rex Ryan’s defense. As I noted in Week 2, Brady and Belichick have owned Rex and you’d have a tough argument believing the Bills will stop them on Monday. I will note that Buffalo has only allowed 14, 13 and 17 points in three road games played in the states this season. However, New England has scored 27 or more points in 12 of its last 13 meaningful games at home.
Fearless Predictions
We posted the bagel last week and even though a couple of our wagers looked solid early, they ended up losers. The deficit has reached four digits ($1,130) after 10 weeks. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Tampa Bay-Philadelphia 45
Best Under: Washington-Carolina 45
Best Team Total: Under 14 San Francisco
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 36 Tampa Bay-Philadelphia
Under 53 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota
Under 49 ½ Chicago-Denver
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