NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Tuesday, October 20 - Saturday, October 24)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 24


Strong chance of thunderstorms in Austin Saturday

According to weather forecasts, there is a 100 percent possibility of thunderstorms and rain in Austin, Texas when the Texas Longhorns host the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures in Austin will be in the low-70s and wind will blow across the field at around nine miles per hour.

The Longhorns are presently 6.5-point home favorites after opening -3.5.


Mississippi State loses CB Redmond to torn ACL

Mississippi State cornerback Will Redmond suffered an ACL tear and will miss the remainder of the season, according to reports Thursday.

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reported that the injury occurred during practice this week. The university has yet to confirm Redmond's status.

Earlier this month, the Bulldogs lost safety Kendrick Market with a torn ACL sustained during a loss to Texas A&M.

Redmond had a team-leading two interceptions and 25 tackles while starting the first seven games. He also ranked second on the team in passes defensed with three.

NFLDraftScout.com projects Redmond as the ninth-best cornerback prospect in the 2016 NFL Draft class.

Redmond's spot is likely to be filled by Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles. Cleveland has started four games this year and accumulated 24 tackles.


Central Michigan is the best ATS wager in the country

One of the biggest surprises of the college football season has to be the Central Michigan Chippewas, who improved their college football-best record against the spread to 7-0 with a 51-14 thumping of the Buffalo Bulls as 7-point home favorites Saturday.

The Chippewas are just 3-4 straight up but a slew of close games have them as the hottest bet in the land.

They've even taken on some of the biggest programs in the country, including Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State, but cashed in as dogs of 21, 8, and 25.5 points respectively.

The Chippewas will travel to Ball State in Week 8 of the schedule. Ball State has head the SU and ATS edge in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings dating back to 2010.


Baylor enjoying longest home win streak in FBS

The Baylor Bears boast a 19-game home winning streak, the longest such streak in the FBS, and will look to make it 20 with the Iowa State Cyclones visiting Saturday afternoon.

The streak has been a profitable venture at the betting window as well as the Bears have gone 16-2 against the spread over the course of those 19 home games (Week 2 versus Lamar this season was off the board).

Both of Baylor's ATS losses came last season when they won 61-58 versus TCU but failed to cover as 7-point home faves in Week 7 and later on in the season when they defeated Oklahoma State 49-28 but missed out as lofty 33-point home chalk.

Books opened the Bears as 36-point home favorites versus the Cyclones, but that has since moved to -37.


Kansas abysmal SU and ATS away from home

The Kansas Jayhawks have their hands full as it is for their trip to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys Saturday afternoon, but when you factor in how poor the Jayhawks have been on their road recently, things get a whole lot tougher.

The Jayhawks have lost 35-straight road games heading into Saturday's matchup and have gone 10-24-1 against the spread in those games. Their last road win came on Sept. 12, 2009 versus UTEP.

Books opened the Jayhawks as 33.5-point road pups at the Cowboys, but that has moved to +34.5.


Tennessee on 10-game losing skid versus SEC West

The Tennessee Volunteers visit the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday afternoon, and carry a dubious streak into the game: the Vols have lost 10 consecutive games to opponents from the SEC West.

It has been wise to fade the Vols in these spots in the past as they've posted a record of just 1-9 against the spread in those 10 games.

Furthermore, Alabama has beaten Tennessee in eight-straight meetings and have gone 6-2 ATS in those games.

Books opened the Vols as 14-point road underdogs for Saturday's meetings, but that has since moved to +15.


Toledo backers look for unbeaten run to continue

The Toledo Rockets have been one of the best spread teams so far this season, taking a 5-0-1 ATS mark into Saturday's meeting with the UMass Minutemen at Foxborough. That mark has them as the second best ATS team in college football, trailing only the 7-0 ATS Central Michigan Chippewas.

The lone push was in a 30-23 win versus Iowa State in Week 2 as 7-point favorites. Furthermore, Toledo is one of 14 unbeaten teams (straight up) remaining in the FBS.

Books opened the Rockets as 13.5-point road faves but that has since moved up a full point to -14.5.

[Udog]

Essential Week 8 betting tips for college football's top games

Baylor’s 19-game home winning streak is the longest current run in the FBS.

Iowa State Cyclones at (2) Baylor Bears (-37, 77.5)

* The Cyclones held a 21-14 lead over the Horned Frogs at the end of the first quarter last week before being outscored 31-0 the rest of the way.

* Baylor’s 19-game home winning streak is the longest current run in the FBS. They are 16-2 ATS in those games (Week 2 vs. Lamar was OFF).


(6) Clemson Tigers at Miami Hurricanes (+7.5, 55)

* The Tigers have dominated opponents before halftime this season, outscoring the opposition 137-33 in the first half of games.

* Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya has not thrown an interception in his past 125 pass attempts, the second-longest streak at Miami in the past 10 years (Stephen Morris, 182).


(22) Houston Cougars at Central Florida Knights (+22, 56.5)

* Houston is one of two teams (Baylor) that have scored a touchdown on the opening drive of each game this season.

* UCF has won the last four meetings (3-1 ATS), including a 17-12 triumph last year after Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. fumbled out of the end zone in the final minute.


(20) Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts Minutemen (+14.5, 62)

* The Rockets are one of two teams (Central Michigan) to have not suffered an ATS loss. The Rockets are 5-0-1 ATS in their six games this season.

* UMass senior Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for a season-low 171 yards with one interception in last Saturday's 15-10 loss to Kent State, had 438 yards and five touchdowns in a wild 42-35 loss at Toledo in 2014.


Texas Tech Red Raiders at (15) Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 72.5)

* The Red Raiders haven't won a meeting with the Sooners since 2011, but did cover the spread as 14-point home dogs in last season's 42-30 loss.

* Sooners QB, and former Tech QB, Baker Mayfield is off to a stellar start for the Sooners, ranking fourth among all FBS players in points responsible for per game (23.0), ninth in total offense (340.2), sixth in passing TDs per game (3.17) and 14th in passing yards per game (312.0).


Kansas Jayhawks at (12) Oklahoma State Cowboys (-34.5, 58.5)

* The Jayhawks have dropped 35 consecutive road games, with their last win Sept. 12, 2009, against UTEP. They are 10-24-1 ATS in those games away from home.

* The Cowboys have won 29 of their last 30 home games against unranked opponents with last season’s 28-7 loss to Texas serving as the lone blemish.


Tennessee Volunteers at (8) Alabama Crimson Tide (-15, 53)

* The Volunteers have lost 10 straight games against SEC West opponents. The Vols are 1-9 ATS in those games.

* Alabama has won 57 straight games against unranked teams and has taken eight straight in the series. The Tide are 6-2 ATS in the previous eight meetings with the Vols.


(21) Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech (-3, 44)

* The Blue Devils are 13-3 in their last 16 ACC games (regular season) with only No. 9 Florida State (16-0) better and No. 6 Clemson (13-3) equal. Duke is 12-4 ATS in those games.

* Virginia Tech leads the series 14-8 and has won 10 of the last 11 meetings since the series resumed on a yearly basis in 2004. Duke prevailed 13-10 in 2013. The Hokies are 6-5 ATS in the past 11 meetings.


Indiana Hoosiers at (4) Michigan State Spartans (-16.5, 61.5)

* Indiana has lost three straight games, including blowing a 25-point lead in a 55-52 loss to Rutgers last Saturday, and is hoping standout running back Jordan Howard (709 yards) will return after missing the past two-plus games.

* The Spartans haven't lost to Indiana since 2006 and have covered the spread in back-to-back meetings and eight of the last 10.


Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers (-15.5, 67)

* The Hilltoppers have won four straight since a 38-35 setback at Indiana and have scored at least 49 points in four straight games, and their talent has captured the Tigers’ attention. “I voted for them to be in the top 25, if anybody asks. I think they’re that good a team,” LSU coach Les Miles told reporters.

* LSU has outscored opponents 56-10 in the first quarter and 110-44 in the first half.


(16) Texas A&M Aggies at (23) Ole Miss Rebels (-6, 64.5)

* Aggies QB Kyle Allen threw for 13 touchdowns and two interceptions while guiding the Aggies to a 5-0 start but is suddenly unsure of his job security after the disaster against Alabama last week. The sophomore sat in favor of true freshman Murray for a pair of possessions, though Murray did little in the short stint to distinguish himself.

* The Rebels' defense has allowed at least 37 points in three of the last five games and could be without its biggest weapon in defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche, who suffered a concussion while playing offense last week.


(9) Florida State Seminoles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6.5, 56.5)

* The Seminoles shook off a sluggish start in last week’s 41-21 rout of Louisville, using the combination of Dalvin Cook’s running, Everett Golson’s efficient decision making and a career day from receiver Kermit Whitfield to pull away.

* The past five meetings between FSU and the Yellow Jackets have been decided by a combined 17 points. The Jackets are 4-0-1 ATS in those games.


(7) Utah Utes at USC Trojans (-3.5, 59.5)

* Utah's senior running back Devontae Booker is averaging an extraordinary 26.8 carries per game and has rushed for 783 yards and eight touchdowns while also leading the Utes with 23 receptions.

* USC senior quarterback Cody Kessler is suddenly experiencing turnover issues with five interceptions in the past three games, matching his interception total for the entire 2014 campaign.


(1) Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+21.5, 64)

* The only previous meeting was last season, when J.T. Barrett passed for 261 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 107 yards and two scores as Ohio State rolled to a 56-17 victory. The Buckeyes covered as 20.5-point home faves.

* Top-notch Rutgers junior returner Janarion Grant, who has three career kickoff-return touchdowns and two punt-return scores, is questionable with a lower-body injury.


Washington Huskies at (11) Stanford Cardinal (Off, Off)

* The Huskies are just 1-2 SU in the previous three meetings, but have covered the spread in back-to-back matchups with the Cardinal.

* Stanford's offense has averaged 45 points and 492.8 yards since losing 16-6 t Northwestern in the opening week of the season.

[Udog]

What's wrong with the USC-Utah spread? Looks can be deceiving

Southern Cal is a 3.5-point home favorite hosting undefeated Utah Saturday night. What are we missing here?

Help me try to make sense of the following:

TEAM A: 6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the spread, plus-12 turnover differential, ranked No. 3 in the country and outscoring the opposition by 17 points per game.

TEAM B: Has both lost outright and failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games and fired its head coach last week.

Team B is currently a 3.5-point home favorite over Team A on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Sounds suspicious, right? Well, that’s the situation taking place heading into a Saturday afternoon showdown that will pit the USC Trojans against the undefeated Utah Utes in a game that’s sounding off all sorts of alarm bells when it comes to the pointspread.

That’s not to say we suspect that any sort of foul play is taking place here. Far from it. What’s really happening in regards to the USC-Utah matchup is that bookmakers are demonstrating their superior knowledge of the college football landscape.

Through six games this season, 3-3 USC has outgained the opposition in total yardage five times. Meanwhile, 6-0 Utah has outgained their opponents only three times in 2015, which indicates that the prevailing theory is that Utah may be a tad overrated while USC is simultaneously being undervalued at the moment.

And this isn’t the first time this season that sharp bettors have pegged the Utes as ripe for a fall. Just last week, we saw the Utah-Arizona State line steamed from the neighborhood of Utah -8 all the way down to as low as Utah -3.5 at kickoff.

Granted, the Utes found a way to both win and cover against the Sun Devils, but it took a wild fourth quarter that began with Utah trailing 18-14 before the final horn sounded and the Utes emerged with a 34-18 victory.

Perhaps this week will serve as a reckoning for one of college football’s biggest surprise teams this season.

SHARP VS. PUBLIC: BEHIND THE COUNTER

Each and every week this column will converse with a Las Vegas insider in an effort to provide you, our loyal and dedicated readers, with enough inside information possible to make more educated and informed wagers. This week we speak with Jay Rood, the vice president of race & sports for MGM Resorts International.

*Point spreads current as of Thursday evening.

Sharp sides: Texas Longhorns (-7, vs. Kansas State Wildcats)

Kansas State has dropped three straight games by a combined total score of 143-79, which includes a 55-0 thrashing at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners last Saturday on their own home turf.

And while the Wildcats’ recent struggles have no doubt played a role in this line move, the bigger reason for such an outpouring of support on behalf of the Longhorns has to do with the fact that Texas is coming off a bye which took place one week after Charlie Strong and company finally put it all together for an impressive 24-17 upset win over Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout.

Public sides: Baylor Bears (-37, vs. Iowa State Cyclones)

Since 2011, Baylor is 25-5 ATS when playing at home. That, combined with the fact that the Bears are scoring an astounding 63.8 points per game this season are no doubt the reasons why public money continues to poor in on Art Briles and company each and every week.

Sharp totals: Clemson Tigers/Miami Hurricanes OVER 56

Through six contests this season, undefeated Clemson is averaging a healthy 35.2 points per game while Miami is averaging 33.6 points per contest, so it’s not exactly a shocker to learn that this showdown was bet up from a total of 53 points earlier in the week to its current price of 56 points.

What is a bit interesting is the fact that these two schools are a combined 5-7 to the Over so far this season, so there’s clearly something going on here that the sharper bettors like.

Public totals: Per Rood, the MGM properties will have a better understanding of which college football totals are experiencing the most public money come Saturday morning.

Games experiencing the most action: Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels, which was opened Ole Miss -4 before being bet up to Ole Miss -5.

BONER OF THE WEEK AWARD

You knew this was coming…

Here’s where we get serious for just a second. It’s one thing to make a couple of jokes or create a couple of memes at the expense of Michigan senior punter Blake O’Neill in the wake of his horrific gaffe in last Saturday’s 27-23 heartbreaker to rival Michigan State that will cost the Wolverines a shot at the four-team college football playoff.

It’s another thing entirely to send this poor guy death threats because of a stupid mistake he made on a football field. O’Neill isn’t getting paid to play football and, trust me on this, nobody feels worse about what happened at the Big House last week than he does.

So for the self-conscious morons of the world who feel the need to step way out of line when it comes to situations like this, why don’t you just chill the hell out for a minute and find something better to do with your time?

Speaking of morons, how about former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke weighing in on the aforementioned situation early this week, telling the media that he would not have punted on fourth down in that same situation.

Thanks, Hoke. How’s unemployment treating you?

MIND-BLOWING TREND OF THE WEEK

The Under is 14-3 (82.3 percent) in the Nevada Wolf Pack’s last 17 home games.

Not only that, but the Under is 20-6 in Nevada’s last 26 games overall and 6-2 in Hawaii’s last eight games overall.

Hawaii travels to Nevada Saturday for a 4:00 p.m. ET showdown with the Wolf Pack in a game that currently features a total of 50.5 points.

BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK

Western Michigan Broncos (from -22 to -26) vs. Miami (Ohio) Redhawks: Since recording a 26-7 victory over Presbyterian to open the season, Miami (Ohio) has dropped six straight contests by an average of 29 points per game with 19 turnovers committed.

Western Michigan, on the other hand, has notched 90 total points over its last two outings while averaging an explosive 522.0 total yards per game in the process. Take note that the Broncos are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games following a win and 14-4 ATS over their last 18 games overall.

Texas Longhorns (from -3.5 to -7) vs. Kansas State Wildcats: It was easy to pile on the Longhorns after Texas dropped four of its first five games to open the season. But look a little closer at the schedule and you’ll notice those losses came against quality opponents in Notre Dame, California, Oklahoma State and TCU.

All of that changed two weeks ago in Dallas when Charlie Strong’s crew dug down deep and upset the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River Shootout by a score of 24-17. Now with an additional week of rest, the sharp action is pouring in on a potentially rejuvenated Texas squad set to face a Kansas State team that is just 1-4 ATS over its last five road games against teams with a losing home record.

Boise State Broncos (from -31.5 to -35) vs. Wyoming Cowboys: Simple explanation here that is rooted in two key factors: First, Wyoming is 1-6 SU this season and just 1-4 ATS over its last five games against Boise. So, needless to say, this is a struggling program with little to get excited about.

Second, Boise State embarrassed itself in a big way last Friday night by committing seven first-half turnovers in a 52-26 blowout loss at Utah State. Expect a focused, pissed-off Broncos team that is 22-8-1 ATS over its last 31 games following a loss to come out firing Saturday.

Army Black Knights (from +11 to +7.5) at Rice Owls: Rice is all about the ground-and-pound thanks to a rushing attack that is averaging 200.0 yards per game through six outings this season. And while Army is just 2-5 straight-up on the year, the Black Knights have flashed an ability to avoid being torn apart by the opposition’s running game (4.3 yards per carry surrendered in 2015). Note that over its last three games, Rice has turned the ball over eight times while committing 27 penalties.

Clemson Tigers (from -4.5 to -7) at Miami Hurricanes: A perfect 6-0 on the season and currently located within the Top-6 schools in both the Associated Press and Coaches Poll, Clemson is taking it one game at a time with its eye on the big prize.

Meanwhile, Miami has dropped two of its last three matchups and is operating under the storm cloud that head coach Al Golden may not be back for the 2016 campaign.

Clemson’s passing game has turned it up a notch in recent weeks with 756 yards amassed through the air over the school’s last two outings, while Miami has permitted opposing signal-callers to complete an astounding 68.8 percent of their passes over the Hurricanes’ last three showdowns.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 24


Chance of rain, thunderstorms in Arkansas Saturday

According to weather forecasts, there is a small 28 percent chance of thunderstorms and rain showers in Fayetteville as the Arkansas Razorbacks host the Auburn Tigers Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s and wind is expected to blow toward the south end zone at around six miles per hour.

Arkansas is currently a 6.5-point home favorite and the total is 51.