NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week7
Sunday's games
Bills (3-3) vs Jaguars (1-5) (@ London)-- This is third year in row Jaguars played a home game in London; they lost 42-10/31-17 here last two years. Buffalo won every other week so far; they gave up 14 or less points in all three wins, 24+ in all three losses, but struggled with Manuel at QB LW, in place of injured Taylor. Underdogs covered four of their five games that had a favorite. Bills are 7-6 in series, winning last two games by 16-7; Bills are 4-2 in last six visits here, winning 27-20 in last visit here, in '13. Jaguars lost their last four games; they are 4-7-1 in last 12 games as road underdog, allowing 35 ppg this year in road losses by 34-3-7 points- they allowed a defensive TD in last two games and three of six.
Browns (2-4) @ Rams (2-3)-- Cleveland's last three games were all decided by 3 points on last play of game, with Browns losing twice; they're 10-3 as underdogs with Pettine, 7-2-1 on road- they allowed 30+ points in all three road games so far. St Louis scored 24-34 in its two wins, 10 or less in three losses; Rams' two wins this year are by total of five points- they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight post-bye games- they were dogs in seven of them (1-0 as F); they're 5-6 as home favorites under Fisher (0-0 in '15). NFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread outside their division; NFC West teams are 7-9, 4-4 as favorites. Rams won three of four series games, with Browns splitting pair here, with last visit to Golden Arch in 2007.
Steelers (4-2) @ Chiefs (1-5)-- KC lost RB Charles, has QB who can't stretch field; they've lost last five games, 17-10 points in last two games- they're 0-2 at home, blowing both in last minute. Pitt won its last two games, scoring 24-25 points using backup QBs in both games; Jones gave offense balance LW in 25-13 win over Arizona (8-12/168 thru air)- they scored last five times (two TDs, three FGs) they had ball. Since '07, Steelers are 14-23-1 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. KC scored total of 34 points in losing last three series games; they kicked three FGs on four red zone drives in 20-12 loss at Heinz Field LY. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total. Since 2010, Chiefs are 10-5 vs spread as a home dog.
Texans (2-4) @ Dolphins (2-3)-- Miami got interim coach Campbell off to good start LW in Nashville, running ball for 180 yards after averaging 79.3 in first four games- defense had six sacks, four takeaways vs rookie QB. Dolphins lost last seven games vs Houston, with four of seven losses by 3 or less points. Texans won last three visits here by 1-7-10; they were +3 in turnovers last week, after being -8 in first five games. Miami lost its only home game 41-14 to Buffalo; since '07, they're 10-25 as home favorite. Since 2010, Houston is 10-13-1 as road underdog (1-2 this year). AFC South teams are 1-6 vs spread on road vs non-divisional foes. Last three Houston games, three of last four Miami games went over.
Jets (4-1) @ Patriots (5-0)-- NE won seven of last eight series games; five of last six were decided by 3 or less points; Jets lost last four visits here by 9-3-3-2 points. Three of five Patriot TD drives in LY's games were less than 50 yards; Jets were 14-29 on third down in the two games. Gang Green is 8-11-2 in last 21 games as road dog, but since '07, Jets are 12-5 as a divisional road dog. Last eight years, Patriots are 11-13 as home favorite vs AFC East foes. NE outscored last three opponents 62-23 in second half. Jets ran ball for 221-207 yards last two games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread, 0-8 in AFC. Three of last four Jet games stayed under; three of last four Patriot games went over.
Vikings (3-2) @ Lions (1-5)-- Minnesota is 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they ran ball for 199 yards in 26-16 (-2.5) home win over Lions back in Week 2 (Detroit dropped back to pass 54 times, ran it 16). Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-6-10-2. Lions got first win last week, in OT vs Bears; they allowed 76 points last two games, have given up 7.3+ ypa in each of last five games. Detroit is 1-4-1 in last six games as home underdog; Minnesota is 0-3 as road favorite the last 4+ years, 5-10 in NFC North road games last five seasons. Vikings are 14-6 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points; Lions are 3-9 in last 12 such games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine road games, with only win in OT at Tampa Bay last October.
Falcons (5-1) @ Titans (2-4)-- Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter in four of its five wins; its not like they've been dominant during 5-1 start. This is Falcons' second outdoor game, first on natural grass this season- they're 7-8-1 in last 16 games as road fave. Tennessee is playing 4th home game in row with a bye in between; they haven't been on road since Week 2, losing last four games, scoring 13-10 in last two games (two TDs on 21 drives). Titans are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a home dog. Four of five Titan games, three of last four Atlanta games went over total. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South teams are 4-9 outside division, 2-1 if a home dog. Titans won five of last six in this series; Falcons' only win at Oilers/titans came in Houston, in 1981
Buccaneers (2-3) @ Redskins (2-4)-- Tampa scored 26-38 points in its two wins, 15.3 in its three losses- they averaged 8+ ypa in both wins. Washington has injury problems on OL; they won last two home games- since '07, they're 10-19-1 as home favorite- this will be first time this year they're favored. Bucs lost three of last four post-bye games, but are 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as post-bye underdog. Tampa is 6-4 as road dogs under Smith, splitting pair of road games this year. Bucs won four of last six series games; eight of last nine in series were decided by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 vs sprea dout of division, 1-3 if favored; NFC South teams are 2-3 as road underdogs. Under is 3-0 in Washington home games this season.
Saints (2-4) @ Colts (3-3)-- Last three times Indy lost to Patriots in regular season, they covered spread next week. NO is 0-3 on road, allowing 32.3 ppg; all three games got over total. Last 8+ years, Saints are 9-16-2 as road dogs (1-2 in '15). Indy won three of last four games but lost two of three at home; they're 10-8-1 in last 19 games as home favorite, 0-2 so far this year. Saints had extra time to prep after upsetting Falcons last week; they won seven of last nine series games, winning 62-7 at home in '11; previous meeting was 31-17 NO win in Super Bowl two years before. Saints scored 26-31 points in their wins, 19.3 in losses. Three of last four Indy games went over. Colts may only be 3-3, but they're atop AFC South, which is the most important thing.
Raiders (2-3) @ Chargers (2-4)-- Oakland is 1-11 SU in last 12 post-bye games, but 3-0 vs spread in last three, all of which were decided by 3 points; Raiders lost seven of last eight vs San Diego, losing last three visits here by 3-13-7 points. Last four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points; since '11, they're 18-14 as road dogs, but 1-5 in last six AFC West road games. San Diego allowed 27.3 ppg in splitting last four games; they're 2-7 in last nine games as a divisional home favorite. Divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread NFL-wide this season. Chrgers allowed average of 145.4 rushing ypg over last five weeks; average second half total in a San Diego game this season is 27.7. Oakland's last two losses were by a total of eight points.
Cowboys (2-3) @ NJ Giants (3-3)-- Journeyman QB Cassel (34-38 as NFL starter, 0-0 as college starter) gets nod here in place of Weeden-- Cowboys lost his three starts, by 11-6-24 points. Dallas won last five games vs Giants with an average total of 49; they edged Big Blue 27-26 (-6.5) in Week 1, rallying from double digit deficit in 4th quarter, but that was with Romo at QB. Pokes won last four visits here by 13-7-3-3 points, covered last five as a post-bye underdog. Giants are 2-1 at home; they're 11-6 as home favorite (1-2 this year). Since '09, Dallas is 19-9 as road underdog (1-1 in '15); they won SU at Philly, lost in OT at Superdome in only '15 road games. Three of last four Cowboy games stayed under total.
Eagles (3-3) @ Panthers (5-0)-- Carolina stayed unbeaten with win at Seattle LW; they're 2-0 at home, winning 24-17/27-22- they were -2 in turnovers LW, after being +8 first four games. Panthers are 8-3-2 in last 13 games as home favorite. Eagles won three of last four after an 0-2 start; last 8+ years, they're 21-10 as road underdogs. Philly won four of last five series games; three of four Ws were by 22+ points; they led Panthers 31-7 at half LY in 45-21 (-6) Monday nite win, scoring on both defense/punt return, with a +5 TO ratio. Eagles were outscored 39-3 in first half of their losses; they have 41-21 edge in their wins. Carolina ran ball for 139.5 ypg in last four games; Eagles held three of last four opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Monday's game
Ravens (1-5) @ Cardinals (4-2)-- All six Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points; Ravens haven't forced turnover in last three games- they've scored 10+ points in 2nd half of all six games (outscored 81-50 in 1st half). Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both losses; they're 9-3-1 as home fave under Arians, 2-1 this year. Ravens are 5-9-1 in last 15 tilts as a road dog; they won last four series games; three of last five series games were decided by 3 points- this is their first visit here since '03, before Arizona was good. This is fourth time in six weeks Ravens are playing west of Rockies. Four of last five Raven games, five of six Arizona games went over total. AFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread out of its division; NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-4.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week7
Sunday's games
Bills (3-3) vs Jaguars (1-5) (@ London)-- This is third year in row Jaguars played a home game in London; they lost 42-10/31-17 here last two years. Buffalo won every other week so far; they gave up 14 or less points in all three wins, 24+ in all three losses, but struggled with Manuel at QB LW, in place of injured Taylor. Underdogs covered four of their five games that had a favorite. Bills are 7-6 in series, winning last two games by 16-7; Bills are 4-2 in last six visits here, winning 27-20 in last visit here, in '13. Jaguars lost their last four games; they are 4-7-1 in last 12 games as road underdog, allowing 35 ppg this year in road losses by 34-3-7 points- they allowed a defensive TD in last two games and three of six.
Browns (2-4) @ Rams (2-3)-- Cleveland's last three games were all decided by 3 points on last play of game, with Browns losing twice; they're 10-3 as underdogs with Pettine, 7-2-1 on road- they allowed 30+ points in all three road games so far. St Louis scored 24-34 in its two wins, 10 or less in three losses; Rams' two wins this year are by total of five points- they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight post-bye games- they were dogs in seven of them (1-0 as F); they're 5-6 as home favorites under Fisher (0-0 in '15). NFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread outside their division; NFC West teams are 7-9, 4-4 as favorites. Rams won three of four series games, with Browns splitting pair here, with last visit to Golden Arch in 2007.
Steelers (4-2) @ Chiefs (1-5)-- KC lost RB Charles, has QB who can't stretch field; they've lost last five games, 17-10 points in last two games- they're 0-2 at home, blowing both in last minute. Pitt won its last two games, scoring 24-25 points using backup QBs in both games; Jones gave offense balance LW in 25-13 win over Arizona (8-12/168 thru air)- they scored last five times (two TDs, three FGs) they had ball. Since '07, Steelers are 14-23-1 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. KC scored total of 34 points in losing last three series games; they kicked three FGs on four red zone drives in 20-12 loss at Heinz Field LY. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total. Since 2010, Chiefs are 10-5 vs spread as a home dog.
Texans (2-4) @ Dolphins (2-3)-- Miami got interim coach Campbell off to good start LW in Nashville, running ball for 180 yards after averaging 79.3 in first four games- defense had six sacks, four takeaways vs rookie QB. Dolphins lost last seven games vs Houston, with four of seven losses by 3 or less points. Texans won last three visits here by 1-7-10; they were +3 in turnovers last week, after being -8 in first five games. Miami lost its only home game 41-14 to Buffalo; since '07, they're 10-25 as home favorite. Since 2010, Houston is 10-13-1 as road underdog (1-2 this year). AFC South teams are 1-6 vs spread on road vs non-divisional foes. Last three Houston games, three of last four Miami games went over.
Jets (4-1) @ Patriots (5-0)-- NE won seven of last eight series games; five of last six were decided by 3 or less points; Jets lost last four visits here by 9-3-3-2 points. Three of five Patriot TD drives in LY's games were less than 50 yards; Jets were 14-29 on third down in the two games. Gang Green is 8-11-2 in last 21 games as road dog, but since '07, Jets are 12-5 as a divisional road dog. Last eight years, Patriots are 11-13 as home favorite vs AFC East foes. NE outscored last three opponents 62-23 in second half. Jets ran ball for 221-207 yards last two games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread, 0-8 in AFC. Three of last four Jet games stayed under; three of last four Patriot games went over.
Vikings (3-2) @ Lions (1-5)-- Minnesota is 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road; they ran ball for 199 yards in 26-16 (-2.5) home win over Lions back in Week 2 (Detroit dropped back to pass 54 times, ran it 16). Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-6-10-2. Lions got first win last week, in OT vs Bears; they allowed 76 points last two games, have given up 7.3+ ypa in each of last five games. Detroit is 1-4-1 in last six games as home underdog; Minnesota is 0-3 as road favorite the last 4+ years, 5-10 in NFC North road games last five seasons. Vikings are 14-6 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points; Lions are 3-9 in last 12 such games. Minnesota lost eight of last nine road games, with only win in OT at Tampa Bay last October.
Falcons (5-1) @ Titans (2-4)-- Atlanta trailed in 4th quarter in four of its five wins; its not like they've been dominant during 5-1 start. This is Falcons' second outdoor game, first on natural grass this season- they're 7-8-1 in last 16 games as road fave. Tennessee is playing 4th home game in row with a bye in between; they haven't been on road since Week 2, losing last four games, scoring 13-10 in last two games (two TDs on 21 drives). Titans are 2-7-1 in last ten games as a home dog. Four of five Titan games, three of last four Atlanta games went over total. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South teams are 4-9 outside division, 2-1 if a home dog. Titans won five of last six in this series; Falcons' only win at Oilers/titans came in Houston, in 1981
Buccaneers (2-3) @ Redskins (2-4)-- Tampa scored 26-38 points in its two wins, 15.3 in its three losses- they averaged 8+ ypa in both wins. Washington has injury problems on OL; they won last two home games- since '07, they're 10-19-1 as home favorite- this will be first time this year they're favored. Bucs lost three of last four post-bye games, but are 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as post-bye underdog. Tampa is 6-4 as road dogs under Smith, splitting pair of road games this year. Bucs won four of last six series games; eight of last nine in series were decided by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 vs sprea dout of division, 1-3 if favored; NFC South teams are 2-3 as road underdogs. Under is 3-0 in Washington home games this season.
Saints (2-4) @ Colts (3-3)-- Last three times Indy lost to Patriots in regular season, they covered spread next week. NO is 0-3 on road, allowing 32.3 ppg; all three games got over total. Last 8+ years, Saints are 9-16-2 as road dogs (1-2 in '15). Indy won three of last four games but lost two of three at home; they're 10-8-1 in last 19 games as home favorite, 0-2 so far this year. Saints had extra time to prep after upsetting Falcons last week; they won seven of last nine series games, winning 62-7 at home in '11; previous meeting was 31-17 NO win in Super Bowl two years before. Saints scored 26-31 points in their wins, 19.3 in losses. Three of last four Indy games went over. Colts may only be 3-3, but they're atop AFC South, which is the most important thing.
Raiders (2-3) @ Chargers (2-4)-- Oakland is 1-11 SU in last 12 post-bye games, but 3-0 vs spread in last three, all of which were decided by 3 points; Raiders lost seven of last eight vs San Diego, losing last three visits here by 3-13-7 points. Last four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points; since '11, they're 18-14 as road dogs, but 1-5 in last six AFC West road games. San Diego allowed 27.3 ppg in splitting last four games; they're 2-7 in last nine games as a divisional home favorite. Divisional home favorites are 4-14 vs spread NFL-wide this season. Chrgers allowed average of 145.4 rushing ypg over last five weeks; average second half total in a San Diego game this season is 27.7. Oakland's last two losses were by a total of eight points.
Cowboys (2-3) @ NJ Giants (3-3)-- Journeyman QB Cassel (34-38 as NFL starter, 0-0 as college starter) gets nod here in place of Weeden-- Cowboys lost his three starts, by 11-6-24 points. Dallas won last five games vs Giants with an average total of 49; they edged Big Blue 27-26 (-6.5) in Week 1, rallying from double digit deficit in 4th quarter, but that was with Romo at QB. Pokes won last four visits here by 13-7-3-3 points, covered last five as a post-bye underdog. Giants are 2-1 at home; they're 11-6 as home favorite (1-2 this year). Since '09, Dallas is 19-9 as road underdog (1-1 in '15); they won SU at Philly, lost in OT at Superdome in only '15 road games. Three of last four Cowboy games stayed under total.
Eagles (3-3) @ Panthers (5-0)-- Carolina stayed unbeaten with win at Seattle LW; they're 2-0 at home, winning 24-17/27-22- they were -2 in turnovers LW, after being +8 first four games. Panthers are 8-3-2 in last 13 games as home favorite. Eagles won three of last four after an 0-2 start; last 8+ years, they're 21-10 as road underdogs. Philly won four of last five series games; three of four Ws were by 22+ points; they led Panthers 31-7 at half LY in 45-21 (-6) Monday nite win, scoring on both defense/punt return, with a +5 TO ratio. Eagles were outscored 39-3 in first half of their losses; they have 41-21 edge in their wins. Carolina ran ball for 139.5 ypg in last four games; Eagles held three of last four opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Monday's game
Ravens (1-5) @ Cardinals (4-2)-- All six Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points; Ravens haven't forced turnover in last three games- they've scored 10+ points in 2nd half of all six games (outscored 81-50 in 1st half). Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both losses; they're 9-3-1 as home fave under Arians, 2-1 this year. Ravens are 5-9-1 in last 15 tilts as a road dog; they won last four series games; three of last five series games were decided by 3 points- this is their first visit here since '03, before Arizona was good. This is fourth time in six weeks Ravens are playing west of Rockies. Four of last five Raven games, five of six Arizona games went over total. AFC North teams are 10-5-1 vs spread out of its division; NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-4.
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