The Bum's National Football League Week # 7 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (473) PHILADELPHIA@ (474) CAROLINA | 2015-10-25 20:30:00 - 2015-10-25 20:30:00
Play ON PHILADELPHIA using money line when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 21 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+19.65 units)

NFL > (459) NY JETS@ (460) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line as a favorite of -160 to -475
The record is 19 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.2 units)

NFL > (467) NEW ORLEANS@ (468) INDIANAPOLIS | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in games played on turf
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.1 units)

NFL > (463) ATLANTA@ (464) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in home lined games
The record is 4 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.15 units)

NFL > (469) OAKLAND@ (470) SAN DIEGO | 2015-10-25 16:05:00 - 2015-10-25 16:05:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 37 Wins and 69 Losses for the since 1992 (-58.15 units)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY@ (466) WASHINGTON | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 58 Wins and 73 Losses for the since 1992 (-69.65 units)

NFL > (457) HOUSTON@ (458) MIAMI | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 6 Wins and 15 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.2 units)

NFL > (455) PITTSBURGH@ (456) KANSAS CITY | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in October games
The record is 64 Wins and 26 Losses for the since 1992 (+33.85 units)

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NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY@ (466) WASHINGTON | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON ?>in the first half after 2 or more consecutive losses
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (471) DALLAS@ (472) NY GIANTS | 2015-10-25 16:25:00 - 2015-10-25 16:25:00
Play UNDER NY GIANTS on the total against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)

NFL > (303) SEATTLE@ (304) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-22 20:25:00 - 2015-10-22 20:25:00
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total when playing on a Thursday
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the since 1992 (+8 units)

NFL > (463) ATLANTA@ (464) TENNESSEE | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play OVER ATLANTA on the total as a road favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 15 Overs and 3 Unders for the since 1992 (+11.7 units)

NFL > (473) PHILADELPHIA@ (474) CAROLINA | 2015-10-25 20:30:00 - 2015-10-25 20:30:00
Play UNDER PHILADELPHIA on the total when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 6 Overs and 21 Unders for the since 1992 (+14.4 units)

NFL > (461) MINNESOTA@ (462) DETROIT | 2015-10-25 13:00:00 - 2015-10-25 13:00:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the total in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

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NFL

Dunkel

Week 7


Seattle @ San Francisco

Game 303-304
October 22, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.178
San Francisco
126.292
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6 1/2); Under




NFL

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week7

Thursday's game

Seahawks (2-4) @ 49ers (2-4)-- Seattle blew 4th quarter lead in each of its last four losses; they've been outscored by 34 points in 4th quarter this year, but they're 5-1 in last six vs 49ers, with four of five wins by 10+ points. Seahawks are 0-3 on road, giving up average of 29.3 ppg; they're 2-4 in last six games as road favorite. Since '09, 49ers are 4-1-1 as home underdogs, 2-1 this year; Niners are giving up 13.3 ppg at home, 40 ppg on the road; they passed for 682 yards last two games (171.3 ypg first four). Primetime dogs are 12-6 vs the spread this season. Divisional home underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five 49er games went over the total. Seattle swept 49ers LY, 17-7/19-3, converting on 13-28 third down plays.

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Rival Seahawks, 49ers look to get on track
October 21, 2015

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) The dynamic of the Seahawks-49ers rivalry has changed dramatically in a matter of months.

No more Jim Harbaugh trying to outdo old nemesis Pete Carroll, and neither team sitting atop the NFC West standings this time.

''I'm not looking at it any differently,'' Carroll said. ''He's a terrific coach and it was a lot of fun playing against him.''

Jim Tomsula is now coaching the Niners with Harbaugh long gone and leading Michigan. Both teams are 2-4 and determined to get back in the NFC West race. Richard Sherman doesn't have an interception, while Colin Kaepernick has thrown his share in a rough start.

Tight end Jimmy Graham joined Seattle, too.

''Record-wise, people wouldn't say it's the same game, because usually we come to this game and we're both 4-2 or 5-1 or maybe 6-0 at this point,'' Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett said. ''We're not usually where our records are. I still think the talent level is the same.''

Seattle, then the defending Super Bowl champion, whipped San Francisco 19-3 at Levi's Stadium, then eliminated the 49ers from playoff contention less than three weeks later with a 17-7 win in Seattle.

The Seahawks have won three in a row in the rivalry.

Sherman will hardly miss his former Stanford coach, Harbaugh, or departed wideout Michael Crabtree - now with the Oakland Raiders.

''I'm not going to miss either, because I think I'm still playing,'' Sherman said. ''When you're playing this game, you try not to worry about other people as much as you worry about what you can do and what your team does. I think at the end of the day we go out there and control what we can control. So I don't think I think about either of those guys very much.''

Seattle's chance at a third straight trip to the Super Bowl is in jeopardy. Since 1990, only 14 of 168 teams to start the season 2-4 have reached the playoffs, and none has reached the Super Bowl, according to STATS.

Here are some things to watch for as the 49ers host the Seahawks on a Thursday night for the second straight year:

TURKEY TALK:

Seahawks cornerback Sherman chomped on a turkey leg while cradling the game ball in his right hand in a Thanksgiving night celebration on the 49ers' home field 11 months ago.

San Francisco CEO Jed York even apologized for his team's poor play on Twitter.

''Yeah, I don't really pay much attention to the pompanstance around it,'' Tomsula said, then quickly caught himself. ''Here I am making up vocabulary again, the Pittsburghese coming out.''

BOWMAN COMEBACK:

Linebacker NaVorro Bowman hasn't faced the Seahawks since going down with a devastating left knee injury in the NFC championship game in January 2014. He not only needed surgery but missed all of 2014.

Bowman had 15 tackles last week playing 77 snaps, prompting Tomsula to say the Niners need to get him some breaks.

''It looks like he's the leader out there,'' Carroll said. ''He's as tough as you can get, instinctive, and he looks like he's back playing football the way he's always played. It's a great tribute to him battling to get back. It was a real difficult injury and I felt terrible about him getting hurt, but thrilled to see him back out there battling.''

MOBILE WILSON:

The 49ers' defense has been tested by strong-armed quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer, and mobile ones like Aaron Rodgers. Next up: do-it-all Russell Wilson.

''A good thing about our schedule is we faced a bunch of big-armed quarterbacks, and we've actually faced a couple quarterbacks that can scramble as well,'' cornerback Kenneth Acker said. ''You know at any point, Russell Wilson can break out of the pocket and a receiver's going to go deep, you know that every play could be that big play.''

WAGNER RETURNS:

Seattle will have starting middle linebacker Bobby Wagner back after he missed Sunday's loss to Carolina with a pectoral injury. Wagner was hurt the prior week against Cincinnati trying to make a tackle in the first quarter on Marvin Jones, initially thinking it was just a cramp.

''I'm excited to get this team going in the right direction,'' Wagner said.

FIX THE FOURTH:

Over the past three games, the Seahawks are being outscored 40-3 in the fourth quarter and overtime. After matching a franchise record with a 17-point fourth quarter collapse in a loss to Cincinnati - and vowing it wouldn't happen again - the Seahawks blew a 23-14 lead in the final 12 minutes against Carolina.

Seattle is being outscored 55-27 in the fourth period this season - a big change from a year ago when the Seahawks were plus-55 in point differential in the final quarter.

---

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NFL

Thursday, October 22

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Seahawks at 49ers
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The Seahawks are just 1-4-1 ATS thtough six weeks after going 31-16-1 ATS over the past three seasons.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5, 42)

The Seattle Seahawks will look to reverse a disturbing trend of late-game collapses when they visit the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night in a matchup of bitter NFC West division rivals. The Seahawks have dropped two straight games, blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in an overtime defeat at Cincinnati before allowing two late TDs in last week's 27-23 setback versus Carolina.

"Our expectations are that we should be winning all of these games," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. "We should be 6-0 and we should be rolling right now." The 49ers snapped a four-game losing streak with their best performance since the season opener in a 25-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Although the loser of the game will fall into the division cellar, San Francisco coach Jim Tomsula said his club is not approaching the game like a matchup between also-rans. "Anytime you play Seattle, it’s a big deal," he said. "So I wouldn’t expect that we’ve got to get anybody pumped up for this game.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The 49ers opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have been steadily bet down to the current number of +6.5. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet up slightly to 42.0.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - CB T. Smith (probable Thursday, hip), CB M. Burley (probable Thursday, hand), DE F. Clark (probable Thursday, hamstring), CB R. Sherman (probable Thursday, ankle), LB B. Wagner (probable Thursday, pectoral), C P. Lewis (questionable Thursday, ankle), T G. Gilliam (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE D. Dobbs (questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR P. Richardson (questionable Thursday, knee), DT J. Hill (questionable Thursday, quad), LB B. Croyle (I-R, knee).

49ers - RB R. Bush (probable Thursday, calf), WR A. Boldin (probable Thursday, hamstring), RB C. Hyde (probable Thursday, foot), G A. Boone (questionable Thursday, shoulder), G E. Pears (questionable Thursday, back), T J. Staley (questionable Thursday, knee), G B. Thomas (questionable Thursday, ankle), WR B. Ellington (questionable Thursday, calf).

WEATHER REPORT:

It should be a great night for football in Santa Clara with temperatures in the low 70's and just a very slight three percent chance of rain. There will also be a moderate seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the southern end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-1.5) - 49ers (+4.5) + home field (-3) = 49ers +3

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-4, 1-4-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U):

Although quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked four times last week to boost his league-leading total to 26, he finally established a strong connection with tight end Jimmy Graham, who had eight receptions for 140 yards. Running back Marshawn Lynch returned from a two-game injury absence to rush for 54 yards on seven carries, but middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (pectoral) missed the game and is questionable for Thursday. Seattle's Legion of Boom secondary has been gashed by tight ends in consecutive games, including the game-winning TD to a wide-open Greg Olsen on a blown coverage.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U):

Colin Kaepernick is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 340 yards and a pair of TDs on Sunday, but he has struggled against the Seahawks with only three scoring passes versus nine interceptions. In addition, two of Kaepernick's top weapons are hurting - leading rusher Carlos Hyde is dealing with a foot injury while veteran wideout Anquan Boldin is nursing an ailing hamstring after registering consecutive 100-yard games the past two weeks. San Francisco's pass defense has been especially vulnerable, ranking last in the league with 306.2 yards allowed per game.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* 49ers are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five games versus the NFC West.
* Under is 7-1 in 49ers last eight Thursday games.

CONSENSUS:

The public is split down the middle for this NFC West clash, with 50.64 percent of wagers giving the Seahawks the slightest of edges.

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Patriots' Brady says he wants to play '10 more years'
October 21, 2015

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Tom Brady has no plans to retire anytime soon.

That means the AFC East - and the rest of the NFL, for that matter - might have to deal with the New England Patriots quarterback for a while longer.

''I'd like to play a long time, yeah, a long time,'' Brady said during a conference call with New York Jets reporters Wednesday.

''There's a lot that goes into playing well. I've played with a lot of great teammates, but I want to play for a long time. Maybe 10 more years. I think that's probably what my goal is.''

When asked if he was being serious about playing another decade, Brady insisted that is definitely his plan.

''Well, it's not always up to me,'' he acknowledged. ''That's what my goals are, so that's just what I'm hoping. And it will take a lot to achieve that. Obviously, a team has to want you, but I think that's, you know, I love playing this sport. I love making a commitment to my teammates and my coaches, and hopefully I can do it for a long time.''

The 38-year-old Brady has shown no signs of slowing down.

He's tied for second in the league with 14 touchdown passes while throwing just one interception. His 1,699 yards passing rank him fifth in the NFL, and he is completing 70.6 percent of his passes.

''It's a great mark, there's no doubt about it,'' he said. ''To complete 70 percent is hard to do, but I would say it may reflect on the quarterback, but to me, it really reflects on the entire offense because it's just, you've got to spread it around to different people.''

Brady's Patriots (5-0) take on the AFC East-rival Jets (4-1) on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. New England has the second-ranked overall offense, while New York boasts the No. 1 overall defense.

''They're loaded with players and that's, I think, why they're tops in the league in basically every category that you look at,'' Brady said. ''So it's a big challenge, and hopefully we can nail things down by the time the game kicks off Sunday.''

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Jets' Revis returns to New England as an enemy - again
October 21, 2015

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) The last time Darrelle Revis walked off the field at Gillette Stadium, he heard cheers while helping the New England Patriots reach the Super Bowl.

He returns to Foxborough on Sunday, but this time, as the enemy.

Again.

''I don't think I'll be welcomed back with open arms, I can tell you that,'' the New York Jets cornerback said Wednesday. ''They're fans and they love the Patriots, and I'm not in that color jersey. We'll see how it goes. It'll be fun.''

For the first six years of his NFL career, Revis learned to despise the Patriots. He once called Patriots coach Bill Belichick a ''jerk,'' and was always the one player Jets fans could count on to keep their team in any matchup.

But then, Revis left New York.

A bitter contract dispute prompted then-GM John Idzik to send him to Tampa Bay, and it seemed weird to see the cornerback in pewter and red when the Buccaneers opened the 2013 season against the Jets.

Things got even stranger when he signed with rival New England as a free agent, and it crushed many Jets fans to see him celebrate a Super Bowl win in February.

''It's a memory that I will never forget,'' Revis acknowledged. ''It's 2015 now and now I'm here. All of that is behind me at this point. When I'm sitting down somewhere when I'm done, that's a memory that I'll always cherish.''

Yes, in fact, he is here again. And he has been welcomed back with open arms like a prodigal son.

The fans who hadn't trashed their green-and-white No. 24 jerseys have dusted them off and filled the MetLife Stadium with them again. In many ways, it's as if he never left.

''This is where I feel most comfortable at,'' Revis said. ''This is home to me.''

Revis was the biggest of GM Mike Maccagnan's free agent signings over the winter, bringing back a player who was the team's first-round pick in 2007 and rose to stardom while becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the game.

He played like the Revis of old in Belichick's defense and was a major reason the Patriots were able to bring home a fourth Super Bowl title. The only reason he was available last March was because the Patriots had an option on the contract, which would have paid Revis $20 million and cost New England a $25 million cap hit.

''The number was too high,'' he said.

He was one and done with the Patriots and the Jets swooped in and signed him to a five-year, $70 million deal that included $39 million guaranteed. Revis got paid, fans went bananas over getting their guy back and Todd Bowles was heading into his first season as coach with one of the best defensive players in the league on his team.

Revis' locker is in the same spot in the Jets' locker room it used to be. He looks right at home in his No. 24, too, after short-timers such as John Griffin, Darius Reynaud and Phillip Adams ''borrowed'' it the past two seasons. Revis also insists it was never strange being on the other side of the rivalry.

''No, I can have a pink jersey on, it doesn't matter,'' he said with a smile. ''I've had three different color jerseys on. At this point in my career, it's about just loving the game and playing.''

As most of his Jets teammates have done to this point, Revis downplayed the significance of the Jets (4-1) taking on the Patriots (5-0) and perhaps making a statement.

Under Rex Ryan, New York went 4-9, including a playoff win, against New England and never could dethrone them atop the AFC East. A win Sunday, though, would put the Jets in first place and firmly establish them as a legitimate playoff contender.

''It's as big as you want it to be,'' Revis said. ''For us, it's still early in the season. We're still trying to get better and better each week. It is a big game because it is a conference game, but at the same time, it's still early in the season. ... Whoever's on the schedule that week, that's who we've got to play.''

Revis has been a force on a defense that ranks No. 1 overall and is third in the NFL with 15 takeaways, two more than the Jets had all of last season. Revis leads the league with six takeaways: three interceptions and three fumble recoveries.

''They've been playing lights out on offense and we've been playing lights out on defense,'' Revis said of the Patriots. ''I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be a fun matchup.''

And, after spending a year with ''the enemy'' as Tom Brady's teammate, he might have an extra edge in his preparations.

''I've got my notes,'' Revis said, laughing. ''I have my notes.''

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Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:25 PM EDT

303 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -4 -6 / -6.5 / -6.5 -15 -6.5 -290
304 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 41 42.5o11 / 42.5 / 42.5o11 42.5 +230

TV: CBS | FAIR, WEST WIND 11-16. GAME TEMP 71, RH 52% HEAT INDEX 71

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NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Seattle -6.5 1112 48.81% San Francisco +6.5 1166 51.19% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Seattle 42 952 54.59% San Francisco 42 792 45.41% View View

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:25 PM ET San Francisco +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Francisco - Under 42 500 TRIPLE PLAY

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/22/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/19/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............2- 0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................0 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0
GOM.............................0 - 0
TOM..............................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 13 - 12 - 2
double play...................................29 - 20 - 2
triple play......................................15 - 13 - 1
blow out........................................4 - 2
gom..............................................1 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
tom..............................................1 - 0
totals........................................... 24 - 11 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................2 - 1 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM..............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY....................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 2
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY...........................4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO THURSDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/22/15

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/22/15 )

THURSDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/22/15 )


*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............0- 0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................1 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0
GOM.............................0 - 0
TOM..............................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 13 - 12 - 2
double play...................................29 - 20 - 2
triple play......................................15 - 14 - 1
blow out........................................4 - 2
gom..............................................1 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
tom..............................................1 - 0
totals........................................... 25 - 11 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................3 - 2 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM..............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY....................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 2
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 2
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY...........................4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO SUNDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/25/15

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Public Fades - Week 7

October 21, 2015


Entering Week 7 of the NFL, five teams are unbeaten, but only two of them take the field this week as the Bengals, Broncos, and Packers are all on a bye. Denver and Green Bay failed to cover in victories last week as underdogs put together a solid 10-4 record against the spread. Cincinnati cruised past Buffalo to cash as 3 ½-point road favorites, although our weekly “Public Fades” column suggested to back the Bills. On the flip side, the Steelers were also recommended against the red-hot Cardinals, as Pittsburgh used a solid second half to knock off Arizona as home underdogs.

This week, the Falcons and Vikings fall into the role of public teams favored on the road. Atlanta is fresh off its first loss of the season, while Minnesota is seeking its first victory away from the Twin Cities this season. Their opponents this Sunday are a combined 2-9 so far. Are the Titans and Lions worth a strong look?

Falcons (-4 ½, 47 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta jumped out to a 5-0 record, but stumbled against rival New Orleans last Thursday night, 31-21 as three-point favorites. The Saints scored the first 14 points of the game, which included a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. The Falcons tripped over their feet several times in New Orleans territory, including a pair of fumbles on potential scoring opportunities in the first half. Now, Atlanta goes for its third road win of the season, as Dan Quinn’s club needed second-half comebacks to beat the Giants and Cowboys away from the Georgia Dome.

The Titans won their season opener in 2014, but limped to a 2-14 record. Tennessee came out with another road victory in Week 1 in Marcus Mariota’s pro debut at Tampa Bay, but the Titans have stumbled with four straight losses. The most recent setback came to the Dolphins last Sunday, who entered Nashville on a three-game skid, as Miami ripped Tennessee, 38-10, while Mariota suffered a knee injury. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner is expected to start on Sunday, trying to turn around a Titans’ offense that has been limited to 14 points or less in three of their past four losses.

So why back the Titans?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of Mariota’s struggles of late, the Titans are in a prime spot against a Falcons’ team that hasn’t been tested, “Atlanta is 5-1, but the Falcons have not defeated a winning team and they have trailed in the fourth quarter in four of the five wins. While Atlanta has had a longer break between games coming off last Thursday’s loss in New Orleans this will be a second straight road game for the third highest scoring team in the NFL through Week 6. Tennessee is third in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 184 passing yards per game for the lowest average in the entire league.”

Did the Saints outline a way to beat Atlanta on a consistent basis? Nelson believes that is the case, “New Orleans provided a good blueprint for slowing down the Falcons as Atlanta had a decent game on the ground but had to settle for short passes, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt while taking five sacks with the downfield options mostly taken away. The Titans will need to have a great performance but the Falcons have not covered against a road favorite spread greater than 4 since 2011 while going just 5-12 S/U on the road since the start of the 2013 season, averaging just over 22 points per game on the road in that span despite the high scoring reputation of the offense.”

NFL handicapper Vince Akins says this situation sets up nicely for those who want to back the Titans as a home underdog, “When a team loses their first game of the season after a huge start like the Falcons, it’s only natural for there to be a bit of a hangover with the dream of a perfect season gone, and there is a necessary readjustment period for this team that is 4-1 or better. That often leads to a second straight loss as teams that made it to at least Week 5 of the season before just suffering their first loss last game pick up their second loss the next game 45.9% of the time. And naturally, these one-loss teams have been favored in over 70% of these games, and have only covered 40.6% of the time coming off that first loss.”

Vikings (-2 ½, 44 ½) at Lions – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota hits the highway for the third time this season, as the Vikings own a perfect 3-0 home record. One of those victories came in Week 2 against Detroit, 26-16 as 2 ½-point favorites. Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards in his first home game since 2013, while the Vikings’ defense limited the Lions to 38 yards on the ground. However, the Vikings have yet to win a game away from TCF Bank Stadium this season, losing at San Francisco and Denver, while getting outgained in yardage in four of five games overall.

Detroit became the final team to break through the win column this season by edging Chicago in overtime last Sunday, 37-34. The Lions didn’t score more than 17 points in any of their previous four games, while Matthew Stafford busted out for 405 yards passing and four touchdowns. Detroit has had success against Minnesota at Ford Field recently, winning four of the past five matchups in the Motor City.

So why back the Lions?

Nelson points out that Detroit isn’t too far off from turning things around, “Four of the five defeats this season came by 12 or fewer points in mostly competitive games through a tough schedule and the Lions outgained Arizona by 90 yards in the lopsided 42-17 loss that was turnover-driven. The statistics were pretty close in Minnesota’s Week 2 win over the Lions in Minneapolis with Detroit having five more first downs, but also two more turnovers. The Vikings are the least productive passing team in the NFL and the fourth-worst scoring team in the NFL, averaging only 19.2 points per game despite a winning record. The defensive numbers have been good but there is some disconnect between the Vikings ranking just 13th in the league in total defense for fairly average results while being 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense as some breaks have gone Minnesota’s way.”

NFL expert Antony Dinero believes the Lions had many positives coming out of the loss in mid-September at Minnesota, “Although the Lions were lousy throughout most of their eventual OT win against Chicago, the fact this will be their third straight home game offers up a definite advantage, especially since the Vikings enter this one winless on the road so far. Stafford has started clicking more consistently with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, which should concern a Vikings secondary that gave up 16 catches for 163 yards against an erratic Stafford in their Week 2 victory.”

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action

October 22, 2015


BUFFALO BILLS (3-3) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Buffalo -5.5, Total: 42

Rex Ryan and his merry band of Bills head to London on Sunday morning to take on the slumping Jaguars.

The Bills (3-3 SU and ATS) are looking to get above .500 before their Week 8 bye, taking on the lowly Jaguars (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) in front of an international crowd at Wembley Stadium. Buffalo has alternated wins and losses so far this season, dropping last week’s game 34-21 at home against the surging Bengals. Curiously, the team has played better on the road (2-0 SU and ATS) than at Ralph Wilson Stadium (1-3 SU and ATS). Jacksonville, meanwhile, holds the inauspicious honor of having the worst record in the worst division of the NFL, entering Sunday riding a four-game SU losing skid (1-3 ATS).

Buffalo leads the all-time series between the teams 7-6 SU (8-5 ATS), most recently winning on the road in 2013 with then-rookie QB EJ Manuel at the helm. Manuel may once again be the Bills’ starter this Sunday, as QB Tyrod Taylor continues to recover from a knee injury he suffered in Week 5. The Bills have a few trends in their favor to cover the spread this weekend, as their opponent is 5-17 ATS in the first half of the season over the past three years, and 1-9 ATS off an Over in the past two seasons.

Injuries are hampering both teams going into Sunday’s matchup. QB Tyrod Taylor (knee), WR Sammy Watkins (ankle), CB Leodis McKelvin (knee), RB Karlos Williams (concussion), WR Marcus Easley (shoulder), RB Cierre Wood (knee), and OT Seantrel Henderson (concussion) are all listed as questionable for Buffalo, while WR Percy Harvin (hip) and DT Kyle Williams (knee) are expected to miss the game.

Jacksonville isn’t faring much better, as WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), S James Sample (shoulder), RB T.J. Yeldon (groin), RB Bernard Pierce (concussion), TE Julius Thomas (ribs), DE Chris Clemons (back), and RB Corey Grant (groin) are questionable, and the Jags’ leading WR Allen Robinson (leg) is probable.

Buffalo’s offense has been uncharacteristically productive this season, though injuries have kept QB Tyrod Taylor, RB LeSean McCoy, RB Karlos Williams, WR Sammy Watkins, and WR Percy Harvin off the field for at least a game apiece. Newly-added TE Charles Clay is the only skill position player to start all six games for the Bills, and is the favorite target of the team’s quarterbacks, catching 31 passes for 324 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Backup QB EJ Manuel is 1-0 (SU and ATS) against the Jaguars, but has struggled on the road in his short career (3-5 SU and ATS). In spite of its injury woes and the team’s predilection for penalties (averaging 10 per game for a loss of 97 yards), Buffalo hangs 24.2 PPG (8th out of 32) and has been a top-10 rushing team in yards (752), touchdowns (8), and yards per attempt (4.4). On the other side of the ball, the Bills have been efficient against the run, limiting opponents to 87 YPG (4th out of 32) and three touchdowns (6th out of 32), but have found difficulty stopping their opponents through the air, surrendering 269 YPG (23rd out of 32) and 13 TD touchdowns (29th out of 32).

The most charitable way to describe Jacksonville this season is “balanced.” The team ranks 30th out of 32 for both points scored (18.8) and points allowed (29.3) per game. Under the stewardship of QB Blake Bortles (272 passing YPG, 6.7 YPA, 13 TD, 7 INT), and thanks to offensive weapons WR Allen Robinson and WR Allen Hurns, the Jags have racked up a respectable 258 passing YPG (12th out of 32) and 13 touchdowns (5th out of 32), though a sizeable amount of their production has come in garbage time. Jacksonville has had difficulty running the football all season (93 rushing YPG), and that will continue as long as top RB T.J. Yeldon is out.

In two seasons as a starter, Bortles has compiled a dismal 4-16 SU record (8-11 ATS), with Sunday’s matchup being his first look at Buffalo. The Jaguars defense has been ineffectual in 2015, failing to stop either the run (102 YPG) or the pass (264 YPG), and generating a league-worst three turnovers.

NEW YORK JETS (4-1) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -9, Total: 48

An unstoppable force meets an immovable object on Sunday as the ascendant Patriots receive a visit from the defensive-minded Jets.

Divisional rivals New York (4-1 SU and ATS) and New England (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) meet in Foxboro this Sunday in a battle for first place in the AFC East between the league’s best defense (NYJ) and offense (NE). The Jets, under new head coach Todd Bowles, have already matched last season’s win total, handily dispatching the Redskins 34-20 at home last week. The undefeated Patriots have scored 28+ points in all five wins, including knocking off their 2014 AFC Championship foe the Colts by a 34-27 score in Indianapolis on Sunday night.

New England holds a 30-18 SU advantage over its opponent since 1992, though New York is 24-22-2 ATS over the same period. In the past two seasons, the Jets are 4-0 ATS against the Pats, despite being just 1-3 in SU matchups. Though New England won both regular-season games against New York last year, it did so by just three combined points. Several compelling trends favor New England this week. The team is 8-1 ATS against excellent offensive teams (averaging 375+ YPG) and 7-0 ATS after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored over the past two seasons.

The Jets may be missing a few players Sunday, as WR Chris Owusu (knee), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), and DB Marcus Williams (hamstring) are all listed as questionable. The notoriously tight-lipped Patriots will be monitoring the health of several of their players this week, as RB LeGarrette Blount (undisclosed), C Ryan Wendall (illness), LB Dont’a Hightower (ribs), DL Trey Flowers (shoulder), and OT Marcus Cannon (toe) are questionable to play, while CB Tarell Brown (foot) has been added to the IR for the season.

New York’s offense has been surprisingly effective this season, after languishing at the bottom of the league the past three years. The Jets are averaging 25.8 PPG against their opponents (7th out of 32) and a league-leading 146 rushing YPG on the strength of RB Chris Ivory, who is on pace for the best season of his six-year career with 460 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and four touchdowns.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been hitting his targets 62.6% of the time, connecting most frequently with veteran WR Brandon Marshall (37 catches, 511 yards, 4 TD), an off-season acquisition from the Bears. He'll try to help Fitzpatrick overcome his career struggles against the Patriots, where he's posted a 1-6 SU record (3-3 ATS) and tossed 17 interceptions, with most of the games occurring during his tenure with the Bills.

Gang Green also boasts the league’s best defense, leading all teams in points allowed (15.0 PPG), yards allowed (269 YPG), and turnovers generated (15). The team has been particularly solid on the road, limiting opponents to 10.5 PPG and a scant 25:24 average time of possession.

With QB Tom Brady at the helm, New England’s offense is playing like a team possessed, handily dispatching each of its opponents in the first five weeks. Surrounded by an arsenal of offensive weapons both familiar (WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, and WR Danny Amendola) and new (RB Dion Lewis and TE Scott Chandler), Brady’s offense has averaged a league-best 36.6 PPG, with Brady completing 70.6% of his passes for 1,699 yards, 14 TD and only one interception. Brady has feasted on New York during his career, leading his team to a 19-6 SU record (13-11 ATS), though his opponents have been able to hold him and his team to a (relatively) low 25 PPG (6.1 PPG lower than Brady’s career average).

If the Patriots have any relative weaknesses, it’s their defense, which has allowed 356 YPG (17th out of 32) and nine touchdowns through the air (21st out of 32). Even so, the team has notched 19 sacks and hasn’t allowed an opposing rusher to reach the end zone since Week 2.

DALLAS COWBOYS (2-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.5, Total: 45

Two long-time rivals will try and seize control of an NFC East division struggling as a whole when the Cowboys and Giants square off at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. The match-up will be the 108th all-time between the two foes.

The Cowboys (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) enter the game looking for any way to end the three-game losing skid that has erased any momentum from their 2-0 start. Matt Cassel was announced as the team’s starting quarterback during their bye week, replacing the struggling Brandon Weeden, who, in his three starts replacing the injured Tony Romo, threw only 1 touchdown and 3 INT, averaging 200 YPG.

The Giants (3-3 SU and ATS) lost some of the momentum they had garnered during their three-game winning streak with an embarrassing 27-7 loss to the Eagles on Monday night, setting season lows for rushing yards (81) and passing yards (166). Dallas, which lost to the unbeaten Patriots at home 30-6 two weeks ago, has rebounded nicely from losses over the years. The team is 32-16 ATS after a loss of at least 14 points since 1992, and over that same time span, the club is 11-2 ATS in road games following a loss of at least 21 points. Bettors can also feel confident going with either Tom Coughlin or Jason Garrett. As Giants’ head coach, Coughlin is 29-15 ATS in October.

As for the Cowboys’ Garrett, he’s had remarkable success when the Cowboys are the underdog, posting a 22-11 ATS mark, including 16-7 as a road underdog. He’s also 11-3 when Dallas is an underdog within the range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Both teams have a handful of injuries to contend with on Sunday, as the Cowboys have three players with a questionable status in WR Brice Butler (hamstring), TE James Hanna (ankle) and DE Randy Gregory (ankle). For the Giants, WR Victor Cruz (calf) is questionable and OT Will Beatty (pectoral) is doubtful. On defense, starting CB Prince Amukamara (pectoral) is out 2-to-4 weeks, and DE Robert Ayers and LB Devon Kennard are both questionable with bad hamstrings.

New York got off to a hot start last week, scoring on its first drive of the game, and with QB Eli Manning completing his first 10 passes. But Big Blue struggled mightily after that, mustering just 167 total yards with Manning completing 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions, one of which was returned for an Eagles’ touchdown. But he has always played well in this rivalry game with 253 passing YPG, 46 TD and 23 INT in 23 starts. The Giants’ defense has been a mess they’ve been trying to sort out all season long.

On paper, their 6th-ranked rushing defense (93 YPG allowed) looks promising, but it’s how they’ve wound up there that should have fans and bettors worried, as they’ve allowed 139.5 YPG in the past two weeks, after just 69.8 YPG over the first four games of the season. In addition to the drop-off in regards to stopping the run, the Giants’ pass defense has been poor all season long, allowing 298.5 YPG, which is 3rd-worst in the league.

The silver lining for the Giants on Sunday is that they’ll be facing a quarterback in Matt Cassel who has not taken a meaningful snap in more than a month, leading a Cowboys’ passing attack that has had five straight games of decreasing passing yards since a 356-yard performance in Week 1 from Tony Romo. Dallas fell all the way to 164 passing yards against New England two weeks ago. Despite this and a running game that has 114 YPG on a subpar 3.7 YPC, the Cowboys do have a quality defense. Their run-stop unit is allowing 95.2 YPG (10th in the league), and should be good enough to neutralize the Giants’ atrocious ground game with 89.5 YPG (28th in NFL) on 3.6 YPC (T-29th in league).

But it will be the Dallas passing defense (254 YPG, 17th in the league) that will need to set the tone early: The Cowboys are 2-0 this year when allowing fewer than 220 passing yards, and 0-3 when allowing more than 220 through the air. Another big issue is turnovers, as Dallas has zero takeaways during its three-game losing skid.

[StarDust Bum]

Bills' QB Taylor out Sunday vs. Jags

October 22, 2015

WATFORD, England (AP) Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor will not play in Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.

Bills coach Rex Ryan said Taylor has not recovered from his left knee injury and did not practice on Thursday.

''He still has some soreness in that knee. That means basically when you touch it and it's still sore, that it hasn't healed all the way,'' Ryan said. ''We're not going force this young man out there, put him out there, when he's really not 100 percent.''

With Taylor out, EJ Manuel will again start for the Bills (3-3). The backup quarterback is 6-9 as a starter, including a 34-21 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

Manuel will be making a second consecutive start for the first time since going 2-2 to open last season before being benched by former coach Doug Marrone and replaced by journeyman Kyle Orton.

''For me yesterday it was a 50-50 thing,'' Manuel said of his prospects of starting against the Jaguars (1-5) at Wembley. ''I wasn't too surprised.''

Taylor started the first five games of the season but sprained a ligament in his left knee in the 14-13 win over Tennessee on Oct. 11. He practiced on Wednesday and said his knee was getting better.

But Ryan said Thursday that the doctors looked at him after practice and determined he wasn't ready.

''We would have played him this week had it been healed, but it hasn't healed,'' said Ryan, who added that Taylor looked a bit off in practice on Wednesday. ''I noticed he was more arm. He wasn't stepping into his throws, especially early in the practice.''

The Bills have plenty of other injury worries, too, with Ryan saying defensive tackle Kyle Williams also won't play. Williams was carted off in the fourth quarter in last week's loss to Cincinnati with a left knee injury.

The Bills defense has been struggling and has so far failed to play up to its high-priced expectations, and the injury to Williams is a big problem for a team already missing starting safety Aaron Williams, who is out until at least December because of a neck injury.

Others who are injured and won't play include running back Karlos Williams (concussion), tackle Seantrel Henderson (concussion) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (ankle).

Receiver Percy Harvin also isn't expected to play. Harvin did not travel with the team to England after missing last week's game against Cincinnati. Although Harvin's been bothered by a hip injury, Ryan didn't go into specifics in saying the receiver is absent because of personal reasons.

Buffalo has missed the playoffs for 15 consecutive seasons - the NFL's longest active playoff drought. And over that stretch, they've had just two winning seasons, 9-7 finishes in 2004 and 2014.

Ryan was supposed to usher in a new era, but the Bills are 1-3 at home with three straight losses in Buffalo.

Playing another game without their starting quarterback isn't the best way to turn things around, but Ryan said he was happy with the way Manuel has been progressing after last week's loss.

''We threw the ball so much last week, some of that he reverted back a little bit, turning the ball instead of staying with his fundamentals,'' Ryan said. ''I think his accuracy has really improved. He had a great day today throwing the football.''

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7


Oakland @ San Diego

Game 469-470
October 25, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
126.015
San Diego
133.241
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 7
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-4); Over

Dallas @ NY Giants

Game 471-472
October 25, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.792
NY Giants
131.667
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 1
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Jacksonville

Game 451-452
October 25, 2015 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
127.445
Jacksonville
124.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+6); Under

Philadelphia @ Carolina

Game 473-474
October 25, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.116
Carolina
138.520
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Cleveland @ St. Louis

Game 453-454
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.591
St. Louis
135.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 9
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 5 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-5 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

Game 455-456
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.835
Kansas City
131.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

Houston @ Miami

Game 457-458
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.496
Miami
134.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Under

NY Jets @ New England

Game 459-460
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
136.999
New England
142.873
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
48
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+9); Over

Atlanta @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
131.446
Tennessee
129.321
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 461-462
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.763
Detroit
130.368
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Game 465-466
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
123.758
Washington
124.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Indianapolis

Game 467-468
October 25, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.480
Indianapolis
134.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 8 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-4 1/2); Over



Baltimore @ Arizona

Game 475-476
October 26, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.782
Arizona
137.408
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 10
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+10); Under