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**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 12:12 AM

Books avoid Week 5 disaster
October 12, 2015

A three-team parlay pays 6/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $600) in Las Vegas and during Sunday's NFL Week 5 action almost everyone in town had a winning three-team combination in the afternoon games with the favorites of Arizona, New England and Denver covering.

“You just have to win one of those late game and things would be okay. Just one,” said the Stratosphere's Hugh Citron.

All three of those favorites would cover the number and it set the books up with a huge risk figure heading into Sunday night's football game with the Giants as seven-point home favorites over the 49ers.

No one wanted the 49ers. Huge parlays were waiting to cash if the Giants beat down the traveling 49ers like everyone else had this season. Two San Francisco road games this season; average score: 12-45.

“We're looking at nearly a seven-figure loss on the day if the Giants cover with the OVER mixed in with the Rangers and OVER in pro baseball,” said MGM Resorts CP of race and sports Jay Rood as the late game was just getting started.

Following the Giants 30-27 win (no cover) and the Blue Jays 5-1 win in the ALDS, Rood and the rest of the sports book directors around town could take a deep breath of relief having just dodged a bullet. It still turned out to be a loss on the day, but it wasn't a complete disaster.

Things could have been much worse as the perfect storm was brewing with the public riding several popular teams.

Three squads -- Green Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati – entered Week 5 with perfect 4-0 marks against the spread. Only the Packers would cover on the day among the three, but the timing of the late games and only three teams to choose from had everyone on the same parlay and books can't escape a 6/1 payout odds no matter how much wise guy money they might get on the other side.

The public had a no-brainer three-teamer in the afternoon. "Let's see. Three games kicking off after 1:00 p.m. PT, huh? Hmm, Arizona should kill the Lions. The Cowboys have no shot against the Patriots and Denver has beat the tar out of Oakland seven straight games. Yes, I'll have a three-team parlay for $20, please."

That type of betting sequence was happening all over Las Vegas from 12:30 to 1:05 pm on Sunday and for the third time in five weeks it was enough to beat the books. That's crazy stuff. The books don't lose in football consistently, but going 2-3 against the public is a pretty big deal in Las Vegas. The casino bean counters are now getting snarkier with their comments in weekly executive meetings.

I guess the comeback comment would be "at least I didn't lose $1 million."

Sunday's storm was brewing early and it took lots of help to get there, and just because a popular team didn't cover doesn't mean that they didn't hurt the book.

“Baltimore not covering was an early dagger because all the sharp money was on Cleveland,” said Rood.

“And then all the teasers and favorite money-line parlays were riding with Atlanta. We were still barely up for the day in the morning, but the three-teamer in the afternoon did us in.”

In the ultimate salute to Art Modell (guess which gesture), the Browns rolled into Baltimore (-6.5) and won 33-30 in overtime. The Falcons needed overtime to beat the Redskins, 25-19, but failed to cover the 7-point spread. The public was on both favorites, which helped the books with parlays and limited the exposure later in the day.

"The Bears winning cut off a lot of teasers and money-line," said Citron, "but Packers covering hurt us in the morning."

The Packers move to 5-0 ATS with its 24-10 win over the Rams while the Bears had a dramatic comeback for the second consecutive week in an 18-17 win at Kansas City.

Things could have been much worse for the books on Sunday, but all were bailed out with the 49ers playing its first inspired road game and getting the cover. Now it's back to the drawing board with the books trying to get back to .500 on the year against the public.

Keep at it bettors!

You got the books on the ropes. Don't let them off the hook.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 12:15 AM

Trends to Watch - October
October 12, 2015

With the MLB playoffs underway, and the NBA set to start at the end of the month, October is a great month for sports fans alike. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during the month of October.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer. Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh is 31-15 ATS as home favorites this month, but its difficult to back them against Baltimore (10/1) and Arizona (10/18) without Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Keep an eye on (Good): Who knows who the quarterback will be for Cleveland by the time Oct.18th rolls around, but we do know the Browns are 19-10 ATS this month at home and they will be underdogs when Denver arrives.

After a poor opening month, San Diego will have three shots to improve 25-16 ATS record in their building against Cleveland (10/4), Pittsburgh (10/12) and Oakland (10/25).

Keep an eye on (Bad): There is seldom much good to say about Jacksonville and this is yet another example. The Jaguars are 14-22 ATS in north Florida and only Houston will visit on the 18th, having sent the other home game to London.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina makes football bettors a lot of money on the road as evidenced by 24-15 ATS mark. In October, they have division game at Tampa Bay (10/4) and long trip to Seattle two weeks later.

Another squad which has been road warriors in the New York football Giants, who are 28-16 ATS and chances are they will not mind trips to Buffalo (10/4) or Philadelphia on the third Monday of the month.

Bad: Arizona has through the years struggled in Eastern Time zones and overall in the second month of the season they are desultory 13-26 ATS. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals can break away from their past at Detroit (10/11) and at Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Even when San Francisco has been a very good team, October roadies always gave them fits and they are 18-35 ATS. Off two wicked September away beatdowns, just one road contest in New Jersey versus the Giants (10/11).

Waiting for Tampa Bay to playing consistently, well, it is like waiting for a blood moon… it just doesn't happen very often. The Buccaneers are 15-27 ATS as visitors and have only one stop, in Washington on the 25th.

FAVORITES

Good: Note - Cleveland is 11-5 ATS, but cannot forecast this role for them.

Keep an eye on (Good): St. Louis has generally improved in the second month of the season, at least against the oddsmakers and is 20-11 ATS in this role. On the last Sunday of the month, the Browns pay a visit to the nearby Arch, with the Rams seeking to improve record. (Note: San Francisco is 39-23, but do not look here as favorites in October)

Bad: This will be a telling month for Cincinnati after hot start. The Bengals will be shorter home favorites versus Kansas City and Seattle to get things going, but are Halloween scary 9-23 ATS handing points. Trick or Treat?

Keep an eye on (Bad): With the almost Super Bowl champions Seattle off to a sluggish start in 2015, they need to win to build quick momentum. Being favored against Detroit (10/5) and Carolina (10/18) at home and a quick trip top Frisco four days later should help, but can you trust a team with 14-26 ATS record in this role?

Tampa Bay's already a favorite this year at home and failed miserably against Tennessee. With Sunshine State partner Jacksonville visiting on the 11th, will the Bucs be better than 15-26 ATS mark?

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sterling 21-8 ATS catching points in Rocktober (think classic rock FM radio), yet as mentioned above, Mike Vick for Big Ben is not a good trade and Pittsburgh will be an underdog in at least three contests.

Keep an eye on (Good): As stated previously, the New York football Giants are excellent on the road, which makes them worth looking at as underdogs as 28-16 ATS.

Bad: The Niners drain bankrolls as dogs at 11-22 ATS and with matchups against the Packers, at Giants, Ravens and Seahawks, backing them might require a visit to ATM.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe Minnesota's improving defense will make them better as pooches at Denver (10/4) and likely Detroit (10/25). The Vikings ship has mostly sunk catching points at 14-26 ATS.

Seattle is 21-32 ATS as underdogs this month and they should catch a small number in Cincy on the 11th.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): At 21-11 ATS, Atlanta pays a visit to the bayou on third Thursday of the month.

Not easy to imagine Chicago makes 21-12 ATS record better in the Motor City on the 18th. Same goes for San Fran when the Seahawks make annual visit on the 22rd. The 49ers are 21-13 ATS.

Pittsburgh has Baltimore on the first day of the month and will need their defense and running game to make 25-14 ATS record better.

Bad: New Orleans has the Dirty Birds in town in the middle of the month and shorter sportsbook figure gives them an opportunity to improve on 12-24 ATS mark.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Possibly Seattle will be such a large division road favorite in the Bay Area, they will not have chance to beat 15-27 ATS record.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 12:20 AM

NFL Week 6 Essentials
October 12, 2015

It feels like NFL rivalry week, kids. The schedule starts with the undefeated Falcons visiting the desperate Saints, ends with the Eagles and Giants playing for NFC East supremacy and features John Harbaugh visiting San Francisco. The marquee game will be the Deflategate Bowl, as Tom Brady leads the Patriots into Indianapolis for a spicy
Sunday-nighter. Let’s dive into Week 6.

Thursday, Oct. 15

Atlanta at New Orleans:

Although he’s been on the injury report every week, Julio Jones actually looked injured for the first time in the Falcons OT win over Washington. Word is he significantly aggravated a hamstring strain in practice last Thursday, which doesn’t bode well for the Falcons given this short week. It does help to be facing a Saints defense that got lit up by an inconsistent Sam Bradford and hasn’t beaten an NFL starting quarterback yet. Drew Brees' throwing shoulder isn’t 100 percent either, so we’ll see how his injured throwing shoulder responds to having to play two games in a five-day span. The Saints have won 7 of 9 at home in this series, but lost at the Superdome last December 30-14.

Sunday, Oct. 18

Denver at Cleveland:

Beating the Ravens in OT quiets Johnny Manziel talk for another week, especially since Josh McCown has shown great poise in leading Browns comeback bids the past two weeks. He’ll have to face a tremendous Broncos defense that has undeniably been the primary reason for their undefeated start, so he won’t be throwing for 457 yards like he managed to in Baltimore. He has developed a great relationship with tight end Gary Barnidge, who should be a main focus of Denver’s defensive game plan. The Broncos haven’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all season, but do rank among the worst in yards per catch against that position.

Cincinnati at Buffalo:

The Bills were amazingly not the most penalized team on the field in Sunday’s 14-13 win at Tennessee, being whistled for seven infractions after 17 in Week 4 had them on pace to become the most penalized team in NFL history. Buffalo beat the Titans in spite of just 3.2 yards per pass attempt, but Rex Ryan praised Tyrod Taylor’s heart as the difference in coming back from a 10-0 deficit. Taylor became the second QB since 1966 to throw for at least 100 yards, run for at least 70 and catch a pass. He’ll hope for more help than he had last week with rookie RB Karlos Williams (concussion) and Sammy Watkins (calf) potentially back. LeSean McCoy is likely still out with his hamstring tear as the undefeated Bengals come to town fresh off their stunning comeback win over Seattle.

Kansas City at Minnesota:

Jamaal Charles has been lost for the season with an ACL tear, so there may be some negativity lingering, especially since the Chiefs ended up blowing a double-digit lead against awful Chicago. The Vikings come off a bye and should be relatively healthy but lost coming off their week off in Mike Zimmer’s first season. Ironically, that setback came against last year’s woeful Bears squad, but Adrian Peterson wasn’t part of the equation and changes things dramatically. He’s averaging 93 rushing yards per game and leads the NFL with two runs of 40 yards or more.

Houston at Jacksonville:

Brian Hoyer will get his first start since Week 1 after taking back the quarterback job from Ryan Mallett in last Thursday’s loss to Indianapolis. Outside of the game-clinching interception, he really moved the Texans nicely, completing 19 of 21 before the ill-conceived throw that ended the comeback bid. The Texans are hoping to have Jadeveon Clowney out there after he turned his ankle against Indy, while Jacksonville is expecting that QB Blake Bortles will overcome a strain of his right throwing shoulder in order to start. Chad Henne would go if Bortles can’t play. The Jaguars also badly missed top linebacker Paul Posluzny in Sunday’s loss at Tampa Bay and could have him back from an ankle injury.

Chicago at Detroit:

Consecutive wins over the Raiders and Chiefs have the Bears at 2-3 despite being outscored by 56 points through the first five games. Only the 49ers have a larger deficit while these Lions have been outscored by 55. Jay Cutler has made plays down the stretch in both Chicago wins, leading a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks despite the absence of top receiver Alshon Jeffery, who should finally return this week. Matthew Stafford was benched during Detroit’s lopsided loss to Arizona, but will start ahead of Dan Orlovsky. The Lions are the only winless team in the league but are favored here, which means the Ford family could fire Jim Caldwell if the team suffers another loss here.

Washington at N.Y. Jets:

Coming off a bye week after an impressive performance in London that ended the Joe Philbin era in Miami, the Jets are looking to remain firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture. First-year head coach Todd Bowles adds talented DT Sheldon Richardson to the defensive line rotation, fortifying a unit that has already been the driving force behind surrendering the fewest points in the league. Kirk Cousins’ final pass this past Sunday was returned the other way by Atlanta for a game-ending score in OT, so he’ll have atonement as added motivation here. He’s had three multi-interception games this season and Washington hasn’t survived them once. The ‘Skins are 2-0 when he’s not picked off.

Arizona at Pittsburgh:

The Cardinals bounced back from their first loss with a lopsided win in Detroit and have now outscored opponents by a full 100 points through the first five games. All four of Arizona’s wins have come by double-digits, so the Steelers will have their work cut out for them on a short week coming off the Monday night game in San Diego. With Ben Roethlisberger still out, Michael Vick will be facing by far the best defense he’s seen to date. With weapons like LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown at his disposal, this could wind up being the week’s most exciting game if Vick does his part.

Miami at Tennessee:

Dan Campbell’s turn as interim head coach begins as Miami looks to turn things around following a disastrous start. The Dolphins expected to make the playoffs and were talking Super Bowl when the season began, so they feel they have enough talent on the roster to go on a run. Coming off a bye, look for a Ndamakong Suh-led defensive line to try and get after Marcus Mariota. The Titans have blown fourth-quarter leads in each of the last two games and have been outscored 42-16 in the fourth quarter, so Ken Whisenhunt still has to teach his young team how to finish. Tennessee is 1-9 at home on his watch.

Carolina at Seattle:

The Panthers come out of their bye week hoping that linebacker Luke Kuechly will be cleared after spending the last month unable to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol. Although the Seahawks have a losing record in common with Carolina’s first four opponents, they’re by far the best team Cam Newton and Co. will have seen to date. Panthers’ victims Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are a combined 4-15, so this will be more of a test, especially on the road where Seattle is so dominant. Coming off a devastating OT loss in Cincinnati, the Seahawks will undoubtedly be cranky.

San Diego at Green Bay:

Aaron Rodgers’ interception-less streak ended in Sunday’s 24-10 win over St. Louis, but the Packers did win their 11th consecutive game at Lambeau Field. The Chargers haven’t played in Green Bay since 2007 and haven’t won there since 1984, so we’ll see if Philip Rivers can find a way to break through. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t received the attention it deserves due to Rodgers’ brilliance, but they’ve allowed just 16. 1 points per game, tops in the NFC and good for third in the NFL behind the Jets and Broncos.

Baltimore at San Francisco:

Colin Kaepernick’s slump finally ended thanks to a terrific Sunday night effort against the Giants, as he threw for a pair of TDs and completed 23 of 35 passes for 262 yards. Anquan Boldin was targeted 12 times with Vernon Davis still absent, while Torrey Smith caught both balls that came his way, so the passing game may finally be starting to gain traction. The banged-up Ravens arriving with Harbaugh in tow will generate plenty of headlines, but he may not be able to avenge his brother’s controversial departure considering the state of a defense that now may be without LB Elvis Dumervil, who aggravated a groin injury in Sunday’s OT loss to Cleveland.

New England at Indianapolis:

Andrew Luck should be back after missing the last two games with an injury to his right throwing shoulder and faces increased pressure since Matt Hasselbeck has managed to go 2-0 in spite of an inconsistent offensive line. The Patriots will have revenge on their minds given what they went through this entire offseason after the Colts blew the whistle on them, sparking a controversy over the deflating of footballs in the first half of January’s AFC Championship Game loss. The Patriots haven’t lost a game since December of 2014 and one can argue they’ll want to win this one as badly as they wanted to claim Super Bowl XLIX. Bill Belichick’s team has won their past two games by a margin of 81-23.

Monday, Oct. 19

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia:

Despite their well-documented struggles with injuries and inconsistency, the Eagles are home with an opportunity to climb to the top of the NFC East if they can hold serve against the visiting Giants. Eli Manning shattered Phil Simms’ long-standing single-game record for most completions with 41 against San Francisco. We’ll see if he’ll finally get Victor Cruz back, which is more of a necessity since Reuben Randle is now nursing a hamstring injury. Chip Kelly is 3-1 against New York and seems to finally have a firmer grip on what he wants to accomplish offensively. The Eagles managed to score 39 points against the Saints despite Bradford throwing a pair of interceptions in the end zone.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 12:24 AM

AP Source: Dwight Freeney agrees to 1-year deal with Cards
October 12, 2015

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) The Arizona Cardinals have signed veteran defensive end/outside linebacker Dwight Freeney to a one-year contract, a person with knowledge of the situation said Monday.

The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the signing had not been officially announced by the club.

The move comes after the Cardinals' top outside pass rusher, Alex Okafor, went down with a calf injury in Sunday's 42-17 victory at Detroit.

The 35-year-old Freeney, a seven-time Pro Bowl player and three-time first team All Pro, ranks 21st in the NFL in career sacks with 111 1/2 and led the league with 16 sacks in 2004.

His best years came with the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 through 2012. He was with the San Diego Chargers the past two years before being released in the offseason.

Okafor was sent back to Arizona for tests and there was no word on the severity of his injury. Another Cardinals player, inside linebacker Kenny Demens - a significant contributor on special teams - tore an ACL in the game, coach Bruce Arians said.

The Cardinals are spending the week at The Greenbrier resort in West Virginia, using the New Orleans Saints' training camp facility there to prepare for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, rather than making two long flights to and from Arizona.

At his regular Monday session with reporters, Arians wouldn't comment on the Freeney reports.

But in his weekly radio appearance, the coach confirmed the Cardinals were in talks with Freeney. Arians said the Cardinals also had talked to Freeney in the offseason.

''But the young guys came around,'' Arians said. ''There wasn't an opportunity. Now there's an opportunity.''

Freeney has 43 career forced fumbles but his speed off the edge has diminished with age. He hasn't had double digit sacks since his 10 in 2010.

Still, he had 40 quarterback hurries last season, along with 3 1/2 sacks.

Okafor, a fourth-round draft pick out of Texas in 2013, led the Cardinals in sacks last season with eight sacks and 12 quarterback hits, despite missing the first three games due to injury. He has a team-best two sacks this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 03:33 PM

Luck's status has Deflate-gate rematch line in limbo

Books are holding off on posting a line for this week's Colts-Patriots game until Andrew Luck's status is determined.

Based on the 2014 NFL season, it appeared that Week 6 of the 2015 season would feature a showdown between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts. It would be a rematch of the AFC Championship Game – aka Deflategate.

New England (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) still looks like the team that rolled to a 45-7 home win laying 7 points in that game. The Pats then went on to beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. On Sunday at undermanned Dallas, Tom Brady & Co. rumbled to a 30-6 victory as an 8-point favorite.

Indianapolis (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) has managed to post three consecutive wins, but has struggled against inferior competition without Andrew Luck (shoulder) under center the past two weeks. Playing the Thursday night game in Week 5, the Colts rode backup QB Matt Hasselbeck and running back Frank Gore to a 27-20 win at Houston as a 5-point underdog.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said he’ll hold off on posting a line until Luck’s status is determined.

“It appears the Colts organization is going to be understandably cautious with Luck,” Lester said. “That said, we are going to hold off hanging a line until his status is a bit more definitive. If Luck is out, which we anticipate, the Patriots will be at least touchdown chalk, and at that number, the public will be backing them again.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said without Luck, Indy will be another footnote for New England.

“The Pats have been mowing down opponents, and without Andrew Luck, the Colts may just become additional blades of grass,” Avello said.

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF)

Arizona could easily be among the ranks of the unbeaten this year, with its lone loss a 24-22 upset as a 7-point home chalk to St. Louis in Week 4. But the Cardinals (4-1 SU and ATS) bounced back in a big way Sunday at Detroit, hammering the Lions 42-17 as a 4-point road fave.

Pittsburgh is still trying to bide its time while QB Ben Roethlisberger recovers from a left knee injury. The Steelers (2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) blew a great chance to beat Baltimore in Week 4, tumbling 23-20 in overtime as a 3-point pup with Michael Vick at quarterback. The Steelers will also have a shorter week, playing in the Monday nighter tonight at San Diego.

“I really do believe that the Cardinals are a quality team and have all the pieces it takes to win it all,” Avello said. “But the five teams they've faced have a total of six wins among them. This will be a stiffer test.”

With Pittsburgh in action tonight, the line isn’t yet posted.

“If the Steelers don’t suffer any major injuries on Monday night, then we’ll open the Cardinals as short road chalk,” Lester said. “This will be the second good test for the Cardinals, and the first was their only defeat (a 24-22 home loss to St. Louis). Michael Vick has enough talent around him to be serviceable and keep games against quality opponents competitive.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Carolina (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) puts its perfect record on the line with a coast-to-coast road trip for which the Panthers are well-rested. Carolina had its bye in Week 5, after bouncing Tampa Bay 37-23 giving 3 points on the road in Week 4.

Seattle (2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) is almost assuredly fuming after blowing a 24-7 lead Sunday by giving up 17 points to Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, then losing 27-24 in overtime to push as a 3-point road ‘dog. Allowing such a rally certainly wasn’t becoming of the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks, but last year, they were 3-3 SU and ATS through six weeks, then plowed through the rest of the season to return to the Super Bowl.

“It will be interesting to see how the betting community reacts to this game,” Lester said. “The Panthers are coming off a bye, but this is the first good team they’ve seen all year. It’s too early to label this a must-win situation for the Seahawks, but they really do need a win here at home.

“This spread might fluctuate a half point either way, but I expect we will have good two-way action for this one.”

Avello isn’t sold on the Panthers, but also has reservations about Seattle.

“The Panthers are playing with confidence, but they've also played a weak schedule, the weakest of any team thus far,” Avello said. “The last time these two met was in last season's divisional playoff round, where the Seahawks were an 11-point home favorite (in a 31-17 win). Don't expect to see anything close to that number, as the ‘Hawks aren't on par with last year's squad, and the Panthers are a much closer comparison to where they were last season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

With Baltimore unraveling and Pittsburgh trying to hang in without Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati has assumed control in the AFC North. The Bengals (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS), 3-point home faves against Seattle on Sunday, rallied from a 24-7 fourth-quarter deficit to win 27-24 in overtime.
Buffalo (3-2 SU and ATS) has looked perhaps a little better than expected under new coach Rex Ryan. On Sunday, the Bills squeaked out a 14-13 win catching 1 point at Tennessee.
“The Bengals are 5-0, and the perception is they are ready to take on all challengers,” Avello said. “I believe they are going to get that challenge here in a game I opened Buffalo -1.5. The Bengals will have backing at the betting windows, as they are 5-0 against the number, if you were able to lay the -2.5 vs Seattle.”

Lester opened the game at pick ‘em and quickly moved Cincy to -1.

“We’ll see if there is any kind of letdown for Cincinnati with a tough trip to Orchard Park on deck,” Lester said. “That said, the early money has already come in on the Bengals. If the banged-up Bills don’t get some of their offensive talent back, I expect we will keep shading toward the visitor as the public gamblers get involved.”

**StarDust Bum** · 10-13-2015, 03:38 PM

Best betting value takes timing for these NFL Week 6 odds

Experts suggests waiting on the Falcons-Saints game until the line settles down

Game to bet on now

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

Call this one the Revenge Bowl. In New England, everyone is still uber-ticked at the Colts for telling the teacher about alleged underinflated footballs and the Patriots are now primed to get even during recess. New England is 4-0, kicking butt and taking names, while Indianapolis has quarterback issues. Add in the fact that the Patriots treat the Colts like the hired help, and it’s surprising that the 7.5 number isn’t higher.

Scorched-earth was the name of the game in 2007 in the wake of SpyGate, and so it will be eight years later. Expect a few Gronk end zone spikes, Brady fired up on the sidelines and a certain steely-eyed hoodie on the sidelines sneaking an occasional look at the Colt owners box with each score.

Game to wait on

Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)

The Falcons are one of four undefeated teams, but are there cracks in the foundation? A mediocre Washington team had Atlanta by the scruff of the neck several times on Sunday before losing on a overtime pick-6, and now there are a few questions about the Falcons’ staying power – at least when wide out Julio Jones is not at 100 percent.

Heavy money is coming in on Atlanta in this one and could move the line, even though books will certainly be reluctant to give the Saints another half-point at home. Might be a good idea to hold off on this one until the line settles and Atlanta gets a better idea of how Jones’s ailing right hamstring feels closer to gametime.

Total to watch

Carolina at Seattle (O/U: 42)

The offense appears to be straightened out in Carolina, where the Panthers have scored progressively more points (20, 24, 27, 37) in each game. But over players need to be careful here, because the Panthers have not moved the ball on anyone of note (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 5-15).

Few teams are able to run the ball against Seattle’s No. 5-ranked defense, and if the Seahawks make the Panther offense one-dimensional, eclipsing 37 points on the road will be a mere pipedream.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 11:51 AM

Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by

Washington State is coming off a massive upset over Oregon and giving eight points to visiting Oregon State Saturday.

Letdown spot

The Mike Leach experiment at Washington State produced its finest results last weekend when the Cougars upset Oregon 45-38 in double overtime as 15.5-point road underdogs in Eugene. Washington State has long been the Pac-12’s favorite punching bag, but struck back with a monster win over the Ducks, using two crazy touchdowns including a bizarre fumble recovery on the goal line to get the 'W'. The Cougars' social media jockeys trolled the Ducks following the win with a clever "Oregon Trail" meme.

That sets Wazzu up for perhaps the biggest letdown spot of the college football season. Washington State is an 8-point home favorite against Oregon State Saturday afternoon. The Beavers are just 2-3 on the year but have covered in seven straight trips to Pullman and are 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 meetings overall.

Lookahead spot

The New York Jets are coming off a bye week following their victory against Miami in the NFL’s UK game in London. It’s very likely the Jets spent as much time preparing for next week’s opponent – the New England Patriots – as they did for this week’s foe, the Washington Redskins.

New York, at 3-1 SU and ATS, has exceed expectations through four games and has a chance to upend the Pats, who are coming off a tough Sunday night matchup with Indianapolis. That will be the Jets’ first game against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady without Rex Ryan on the sideline in some time. New York, however, is giving six points in Week 6 to a rising Washington squad that has covered in three of its last four outings.

Schedule spot

The San Jose Sharks have a busy travel schedule this week, kicking off Tuesday in the nation’s capitals. San Jose, which opened the season 2-0, takes on Washington then plays a challenging three games in four nights away from home to wrap the week.

Following a showdown with the Capitals, the Sharks hit the ice in New Jersey Friday, travel to Brooklyn to play the Islanders Saturday, rest Sunday, and finish this frantic East Coast trip against the Rangers on Monday. Heading into Tuesday’s game, San Jose was just 2-5 in its last seven versus Metropolitan foes.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 11:52 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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ATLANTA (5 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 4) - 10/15/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 18

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DENVER (5 - 0) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (5 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (1 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (2 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 5) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (1 - 3) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (4 - 0) at SEATTLE (2 - 3) - 10/18/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 75-42 ATS (+28.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 29-57 ATS (-33.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 0) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (1 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) - 10/18/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) - 10/18/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 217-176 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 169-128 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (3 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 10/19/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 11:53 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday - Oct, 15

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:25 ET
Atlanta: 9-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday
New Orleans: 27-50 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Sunday - Oct, 18

Denver at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Denver: 20-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
Cleveland: 53-30 UNDER after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 5-19 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Buffalo: 9-2 ATS as an underdog

Kansas City at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Minnesota: 2-10 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 45-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
Jacksonville: 1-9 ATS at home after being outrushed by 100+ yards last game

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 0-9 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3
Detroit: 16-5 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse

Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Washington: 39-23 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7
New York: 6-16 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Arizona at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 13-26 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Pittsburgh: 20-7 ATS at home after gaining 6.5 or + yards/play in previous game

Miami at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS against conference opponents

Carolina at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 23-6 UNDER off a road win against a division rival
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

San Diego at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS as a home favorite

Baltimore at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
San Francisco: 7-0 OVER after allowing 500 or more total yds in previous game

New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
New England: 21-10 ATS in games played on turf
Indianapolis: 0-6 ATS against AFC East division opponents

Monday - Oct, 19

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
New York: 21-8 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points
Philadelphia: 31-16 UNDER after scoring 35 points or more last game

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 11:54 AM

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 15

8:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Sunday, October 18

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CLEVELAND
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PITTSBURGH
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY JETS
Washington is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. GREEN BAY
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing New England

Monday, October 19

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 11:58 AM

Tech Trends - Week 6
October 13, 2015

THURSDAY, OCT. 15
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcons are 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line out of the gate. Falcons have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 vs. Saints. Saints broke home skid vs. Dallas but still 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven as host.

Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 18
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos have won and covered first three on road this season. Peyton Manning 34-19 vs. spread in reg season since joining Broncos.

Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 vs. line and are now 5-2 vs. spread last seven away. Also "over" 4-1 this season. Bills 2-0 as dog TY and 9-2 last 11 in role. Buffalo "under" 10-2 last 12 at Orchard Park as well.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Viking have covered first two at home and now three in a row overall, they're also "under" 12-7-1 since Zimmer took over. Vikes 5-1 vs. spread last six as host. Chiefs have lost and failed to cove last four games, and "under" 7-4 away since last season.

Tech Edge: Vikings and slight to "under," based on team and extended "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 1-4 SU and vs. line as Bill O'Brien has dropped first two on road. All of that after entering 2015 on 6-2-1 spread uptick away from home. Jags have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.

Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions were 5-2-1 as home chalk LY and have maintained their "under" trending, now "under" 14-7 since Caldwell assumed command last season (3-2 "under" TY). Lions 5-1 vs. spread last six in series, and have covered last five at Ford Field vs. Bears.

Tech Edge: Lions and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets are 3-1 both SU and ATS for rookie coach Todd Bowles. Redskins are 6-12 vs. spread last 18 on road. Jets "under" 9-3 last 12 since mid 2014. Skins "under" 9-5 last 14.

Tech Edge: "Under" and Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Arians back in Pittsburgh where he coached for many years. Big Red 11-3 vs. spread last 13 on road. Cards also "over" 5-0 to begin season.

Tech Edge: Cardinals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins on 1-8 spread skid since late last season, helping to oust Philbin. Dolphins "under" 8-4 last 12 away from home. Titans were 1-7 vs. line at home LY but covered first as host TY vs. Colts.

Tech Edge: Titans, based on Dolphins woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Playoff rematch from LY when Panthers pushed Seahawks but would lose 31-17. Carolina 5-2-1 last 8 vs. line in reg. season and 16-10 last 26 as dog. Carolina also "over" 8-3 last 11 away. Pete 19-7 vs. spread as host reg season since 2012.

Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Seahawks, based on extended "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts on 3-13 spread skid after Monday loss vs. Steelers. Also just 2-7 last 9 as dog. Pack 24-10-1 last 35 vs. line at Lambeau, also "over" 10-4 last 14 as reg season host.

Tech Edge: Packers and "over," based on Pack trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Not long ago this was a Super Bowl matchup. 49ers dropped three straight after opening win vs. Vikes. Ravens also just 1-4 vs. line. SF just 3-7 vs. line in new Santa Clara home, also "under" 8-2 last 10 as host. Ravens "under" 4-1 last five on reg season road.

Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Deflate-gate rematch! Pats have really owned Colts and this series, winning and covering huge the past four meetings (playoffs included) since Andrew Luck joined Indy in 2012. All of those games "over" as well as have been 17 of last 25 for Pats on road.

Tech Edge: Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 17
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds won and covered both meetings LY but Chip Kelly just 3-6 last 9 vs. line since late LY (one of those Ws vs. NYG). Birds also "under" 4-1 this season. G-Men four straight covers on road.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-14-2015, 12:00 PM

Thursday's Game to Watch
October 14, 2015

ATLANTA FALCONS (5-0) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-4)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 51

The undefeated Falcons kick off Week 6 with a Thursday night visit to the Big Easy to face their divisional rival Saints.

Atlanta (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) rolls into this week’s matchup riding high atop the NFC South after eking out an overtime win against the Redskins last Sunday.

At the other end of the division, New Orleans (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) coughed up four turnovers en route to a 39-17 loss to the Eagles in a sloppy defeat last Sunday.

The last time the teams met at the Superdome the Falcons came to town with five victories under their belt (though it occurred in Week 16 of the 2014 season). Atlanta won that game 30-14, eliminating New Orleans from playoff contention.

The Saints have a slight edge over the Falcons since 1992, with a 24-22 SU record, though Atlanta has been more successful ATS, with a record of 28-18.

The matchup trends favor the Falcons, who are 9-1 ATS in Thursday night games since 1992, though it should be noted they are 6-23 ATS after gaining 375+ total yards in consecutive games over the same period.

The Saints have some coaching trends in their favor, with head coach Sean Payton posting a record of 12-2 ATS versus very good offensive teams (27+ PPG) and 20-8 ATS coming off a road loss during his tenure in New Orleans.

Atlanta has stayed fairly healthy this year, with only LB Justin Durant (elbow) designated as questionable for Thursday.

Several Saints came out of Sunday banged up, and DL Bobby Richardson (hip), OT Terron Armstead (knee), G Jahri Evans (knee), and P Thomas Morstead (quad) are all questionable for Thursday.

The Falcons’ high-flying offense has been the key to their success so far this season. Captained by QB Matt Ryan, the team ranks 3rd in the NFL in points scored (32.4 PPG), 4th in total yards (2,031), 6th in fewest turnovers allowed (5, though 3 of them occurred last week).

Ryan is only 5-8 SU (7-6 ATS) in this series, but has always enjoyed visiting the Superdome with 328 passing YPG, 9 TD and 2 INT in those five visits. Atlanta also leads the league in rushing touchdowns (10), thanks to the explosive rise of RB Devonta Freeman. The second-year pro already has 645 total yards (129 YPG) and is coming off a season-high 153 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC in the win over Washington.

Superstar WR Julio Jones has been relatively quiet the past two weeks while dealing with nagging hamstring and toe issues, only hauling in five catches on 10 looks for 67 yards on Sunday. He did manage to find the end zone for the first time since Week 3, though it was on a recovered fumble. Atlanta’s defense has performed ably, allowing 22.4 PPG to opponents (15th out of 32), while generating 10 turnovers (6th out of 32).

The Falcons have been elite against the run outside of the red zone, allowing a league best 392 yards, though they’ve given up eight rushing touchdowns, second-worst in the NFL.

The Saints’ offense, led by future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees, has been predictably productive, ranking 7th in the league for total offense (1,937), 3rd in passing yards (1,510), and 6th in First Downs (112).

They’ve had some struggles finding the end zone, however, scoring just 103 points on the season (21st out of 32), and ball protection has been a season-long issue (10 turnovers, 26th out of 32).

Tellingly, their only win on the season, a 26-20 overtime victory over the Cowboys, happened to be the Saints’ only game without a giveaway so far this year. Brees is 13-6 SU (10-9 ATS) all-time versus the Falcons, averaging 305 passing YPG with 36 TD and 22 INT. He'll try to take the pressure off a lackluster ground game with 85 YPG on 3.6 YPC.

New Orleans’ defense has been the team’s Achilles heel thus far this season, giving up the most yards (2,045) and first downs (122). The club is surrendering 28.6 PPG (29th out of 32), and allowing opposing QBs to gain 8.4 net yards per pass attempt, a league worst.

Penalties have also plagued the Saints, who average nine calls against and 89 yards lost in home games so far this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-15-2015, 12:41 AM

NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS

(263) ARIZONA AT (264) PITTSBURGH ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(CS)( $790 Prot with a 71.8% ROI )

(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 33-15-2 ATS(L50G) at HOME - As favorite( $1650 Prot with a 30.0% ROI )

(267) CAROLINA AT (268) SEATTLESEATTLE is 8-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points( $690 Prot with a 69.7% ROI )71.8% ROITEAMS TO PLAY ON30.0% ROI69.7% ROI

(263) ARIZONA AT (264) PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH is 7-1-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)( $590 Prot with a 59.6% ROI )

(259) CHICAGO AT (260) DETROITCHICAGO is 9-0 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefcient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(CS)( $900 Prot with a 90.9% ROI )

(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 6-1 OVER(L7G) at HOME - VS AFC-WEST( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI )59.6% ROIGAMES TO PLAY OVER90.9% ROI63.6% ROI

(257) HOUSTON AT (258) JACKSONVILLEJACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against anemic rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)( $790 Prot with a 71.8% ROI )

(269) SAN DIEGO AT (270) GREEN BAYSAN DIEGO is 1-6 ATS(L7G) on ROAD - VS NFC-NORTH( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI )

(271) BALTIMORE AT (272) SAN FRANCISCOSAN FRANCISCO is 1-7-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(CS)( $590 Prot with a 59.6% ROI )71.8% ROITEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST63.6% ROI59.6% ROI

(103) ATLANTA AT (104) NEW ORLEANSATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER(L2Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per play(CS)( $900 Prot with a 90.9% ROI )

(253) CINCINNATI AT (254) BUFFALOBUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(CS)( $780 Prot with a 59.1% ROI )

(251) DENVER AT (252) CLEVELANDCLEVELAND is 6-1 UNDER(L5Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles( $490 Prot with a 63.6% ROI

**StarDust Bum** · 10-15-2015, 11:12 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Game 103-104
October 15, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.913
New Orleans
134.009
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3 1/2); Over

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's game
Falcons (5-0) @ Saints (1-4)-- Atlanta is 5-0 but trailed in 4th quarter in four of five games; they're 5-13 in last 18 games with New Orleans, losing nine of last 11 visits here. Saints are -5 in turnovers, giving up 28.6 ppg (over 3-2)- they're giving up 135.8 rushing yards/game. Over last 8+ years, NO is 1-2 as home dog; they're 8-5 vs spread in last 13 home divisional games. Three of five Falcon wins are by 4 or less points or in OT; since '10, they're 12-8-1 as road favorite, 1-0 this year. Saints have yet to lead at half (0-4-1); team that won second half won all five of their games. Atlanta has three defensive TDs in last two games; they're 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 NFC South road games. Both NO home games stayed under.

Announcement

The Bum's National Football League Week # 6 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

The Bum's National Football League Week # 6 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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