The Bum's College Football Week # 6 Rated Plays, Trends, News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, October 6


South Carolina-LSU game could be moved

Storms and record rainfall produced by Hurricane Joaquin caused widespread damage in South Carolina and could force the university to move Saturday's game against LSU.

South Carolina athletic director Ray Tanner said he hopes a game Saturday against LSU can be played in Columbia, S.C., at Williams-Brice Stadium. But contingencies have been discussed, including playing at LSU or relocating the game elsewhere.

"We are not 100 percent sure that we will have a game at Williams-Brice at this time," he said Tuesday. "Our intentions are to stay on schedule and play here in Columbia but it's not definite."

South Carolina officials contacted Carolina Panthers officials about the possibility of moving the game to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., the Charlotte Observer reported.

The Panthers have a bye this week, but the presence of a NASCAR Sprint Cup race Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway will make vacant hotel rooms hard to find.

Columbia received 12.45 inches of rain in three days. Other areas in the region measured more than 18 inches and coastal cities were deluged by 23 inches to 25 inches of rain during the weekend storm.

The Columbia State reported that Williams-Brice Stadium got through the storm without major damage, and the field was relative dry Tuesday morning.


No. 1 Seminoles RB Cook is day-to-day

Florida State running back Dalvin Cook is day-to-day with a hamstring issue that doesn't seem to be as serious as first thought.

Cook was injured while slowing down as he was running out of bounds during the first quarter of Saturday's game against Wake Forest.

He sat out of the second half of the Seminoles 24-16 victory.

As the Seminoles prepare for Saturday's clash with in-state rival Miami, Fisher said Cook would not take part in practices on Monday or Tuesday.


Northwestern-Michigan could be Under bettors' dream

When the Michigan Wolverines and Northwestern Wildcats square off in Ann Arbor Saturday, it will be a contest between the two top Under bets in the country.

Both the Wildcats and Wolverines are 0-5 Over/Under to begin the season and the reason for that? Well, defense of course.

Northwestern has pitched two shutouts so far (vs. Eastern Illinois, vs. Minnesota) and has given up the fewest points in the country so far (35). Right behind them is Michigan who has also blanked two opponents (vs. BYU, at Maryland) and has conceded just 38 points - 24 if those at Utah in Week 1.

The past two meetings between these two Big Ten rivals have resulted in cashed Under bets, including a 10-9 Michigan win last season.

[StarDust Bum]

unkel

Week 6


SMU @ Houston

Game 303-304
October 8, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
70.587
Houston
98.008
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 27 1/2
82
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 25
74 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-25); Over

Washington @ USC

Game 305-306
October 8, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
89.804
USC
109.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 20
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 16 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-16 1/2); Under




Southern Miss @ Marshall

Game 307-308
October 9, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
80.865
Marshall
82.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+5 1/2); Over

NC State @ Virginia Tech

Game 309-310
October 9, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
93.013
Virginia Tech
90.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(+1); Under




NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 6


Thursday - Oct, 8

SMU at Houston, 8:00 ET
SMU: 8-1 OVER after playing a game at home
Houston: 9-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63

Washington at USC, 9:00 ET
Washington: 30-16 OVER on road after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
USC: 11-2 ATS at home off a road blowout win by 28 points or more


Friday - Oct, 9

Southern Miss at Marshall, 7:00 ET
S Miss: 11-1 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over last 3 games
Marshall: 16-30 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers

North Carolina State at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
N Carolina St: 8-19 ATS in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4
Virginia Tech: 13-4 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week

October 6, 2015

THURSDAY, OCT. 8
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SMU at HOUSTON
Cougs have won and covered five of last six meetings. UH 20-9-1 last 30 on board.
UH, based on series trends.

WASHINGTON at SOUTHERN CAL
Trojans 1-3 vs. line last four as Coliseum Pac-12 chalk. Petersen on 6-2 spread run, and his teams are 27-10 vs. line as visitor since 2008.
Slight to Washington, based on recent trends


FRIDAY, OCT. 9
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SOUTHERN MISS at MARSHALL
USM 5-0 vs. line in 2015. Herd just 4-6 last nine on board.
USM, based on recent trends.

NC STATE at VIRGINIA TECH
Pack 7-1 vs. line last 8 and also 7-1 vs. line away from Raleigh since 2014. Beamer just 9-17-1 vs. spread since 2011 at home, 20-37-1 last 58 on board since late 2010.
NCS, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, OCT. 10

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)
Horns have covered last two in series and 6-3-1 vs. spread vs. OU since 2005. But Charlie 1-5 vs. spread last five on board since late 2014, and 4-7-1 last 12 as dog.
Slight to OU, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at PURDUE
Boilermakers 3-8 as home dog for Hazell since 2013. Gophers 6-3 as visiting chalk since 2013.
Minnesota, based on team trends.

AKRON at EASTERN MICHIGAN
Zips 2-6-1 last nine as chalk, 0-5-1 last six as road chalk. Creighton 3-3 as home dog since LY, but Eagles just 6-13 vs. spread at Ypsilanti since 2012.
Slight to Akron, based on EMU extended home woes.

OKLAHOMA STATE at WEST VIRGINIA
Holgorsen has won and covered last two vs. OSU. WVU no covers last three as Big 12 home chalk, just 3-9 last 12 as Morgantown chalk. Gundy 4-2 last six as dog.
Slight to OSU, based on team trends.

INDIANA at PENN STATE
IU on 8-2 spread uptick since late 2014. Hoosiers have covered 3 of last 4 on road. Also covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. Nittany Lions. Penn State 2-5 vs. spread last seven as Big Ten host.
IU, based on team trends.

DUKE at ARMY
Cutcliffe 22-9-1 vs. line since 2013, 8-2-1 vs. spread as visitor that span. Army has covered four straight in 2015.
Duke, based on team trends.

TULANE at TEMPLE
Owls still just 6-6 vs. spread at Linc for Rhule since 2013, 2-3 as DD chalk that span. But Owls are 3-1 vs. line TY. Wave 4-11 vs. spread last 15 vs. BCS opposition. Also 2-5 last seven as DD dog.
Temple, based on Tulane woes.

ILLINOIS at IOWA
Illini 2-7 vs. spread last nine away from Champaign-Urbana. Iowa 4-1 vs. line TY.
Iowa, based on recent Illini road woes.

MARYLAND at OHIO STATE
Urban no covers last four TY and just 12-13 vs. spread in Columbus since arriving in 2012. Terps 9-5 as visiting dog since 2012 but no covers last 4 as DD dog.
Slight to OSU, based on recent Terp DD dog woes.

WAKE FOREST at BOSTON COLLEGE
BC 7-3 as home chalk since 2013 for Addazio. Addazio 12-5 vs. line overall as host since 2013. Wake 4-8 as road dog sine 2013 and no covers last four on ACC trail.
Slight to BC, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at OHIO
Solich 4-1 vs. line TY, though no covers last three years vs. RedHawks. Solich 9-5 vs. spread last 14 at home. Miami no covers first two as road dog TY after 5-1 mark in role LY for Chuck Martin. But RedHawks were 2-11 as road dog in 2012-13.
Ohio, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at TOLEDO
Rockets on 6-0-2 spread uptick since late LY. Though only 2-3-2 as Glass Bowl chalk since LY. Flashes 6-4 as DD dog since 2013 for Haynes (1-1 TY).
Toledo, based on recent trends.

BALL STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Lembo now 13-5 as visiting dog (2-1 TY) with Cards since 2011, and Cards 19-9 vs. spread as visitor for Lembo since 2011. Though Lembo 0-4 SU vs. NIU and has failed to cover last three vs. Huskies. NIU 4-8 as DeKalb chalk since 2013.
Ball State, based on team trends.

APP STATE at GEORGIA STATE
GSU 1-8 vs. line last 9 at Georgia Dome. App 4-1 vs. line last five away.
App State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at PITT
Pitt 3-7 vs. spread last ten as host (0-1 for Narduzzi). Panthers also 6-10 last 16 as chalk. Mike London is 6-4-1 last 11 as road dog. But home team has won and covered last two years in series.
Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Last three years, the road team has covered all meetings. Though WMU 6-1 vs. line at Kalamazoo since LY, and 14-4 last 18 on board for Fleck. CMU has covered last seven as dog away from Mt. Pleasant and 10 of last 11 in role.
Slight to CMU, based on team and recent series road trends.

ARKANSAS at ALABAMA
Bielema has covered 6 of last 7 as visiting dog. Saban 8-0 SU, 5-3 vs. line against Hogs since arriving at Bama. Last Razorback series SU win in 2006, when Mike Shula still at Bama. Nick only 4-6 last 10 laying DD.
Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

WYOMING at AIR FORCE
Wyo has won and covered last two meetings and has covered six in a row vs. Force! But Falcs 11-6 vs. line since LY and are 7-1 vs. spread last 8 at Colorado Springs. Wyo on 3-10 spread skid since early 2014 for Bohl.
Air Force, based on recent trends.

UMASS at BOWLING GREEN
Mass has covered this game the past two years. BG was just 1-4 as home chalk LY. Mass 10-6 vs. line since LY for Whipple.
Slight to UMass, based on recent series trends.

TROY at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Dan Mullen 15-7-1 last 22 vs. line since late 2013, but just 4-4-1 last nine laying DD.
Slight to MSU, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at OLE MISS
NMSU 1-6 last 7 as road dog. Hugh Freeze Ls alst two but still 37-18-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss. Freeze also 7-2-1 last 10 laying DD.
Ole Miss, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at BYU
Ruffin McNeill 6-3 last nine as dog. Cougs 1-5 as Provo chalk LY and 5-10 last 15 vs. spread .
ECU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at KANSAS
Baylor has won and covered last three, the last two by almost-identical 60-14 and 59-14 scores. Bears only 2-5 vs. line last 7 away from Waco, 3-8-1 vs. spread away from home since 2013.
Slight to Baylor, based on series trends.

RICE at FAU
Owl battle! Bailiff LS alst two but on 29-16-1 spread run. Rice has covered last five as chalk away from home. FAU 20-7 as dog since 2012, though only 8-8 for spread under Partridge since LY.
Rice, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON
Leach 10-3 vs. spread last 13 as visitor. Cougs have also covered last five vs. Ducks and Leach 13-6 as DD dog with WSU. Ducks no covers first three at home TY.
WSU, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA at TENNESSEE
Vols have covered last three vs. Richt, all close games won by Dawgs. But Butch only 4-9 vs. spread at Knoxville since 2013. Richt 4-2 last six as chalk away from Athens.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

MTSU at WKU
MTSU has covered first two as road dog TY. Last four meetings all decided by 5 or fewer.
Slight to MTSU, based on series trends.

ULM at TULSA
Improved Tulsa has covered two of last three as it turns around for Montgomery after Blankenship ran program aground with 8-16 spread mark previous two years.
Slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME
Mids 9-5 vs. line last 14 vs. Irish, and Navy 11-1 vs. spread last 12 at South Bend! Mids 15-5 last 20 as visiting dog! Irish 3-0 vs. line as home chalk TY after 4-7 mark previous 11.
Navy, based on series and team trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE
CU 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. line vs. ASU since entering Pac-12. Buffs 3-8 vs. spread as visitor for MacIntyre.
ASU, based on series trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at FLORIDA STATE
Canes have not beaten FSU since 2009 and are 3-10 vs. spread last 13 away from Sun Life. Jimbo only 5-14 last 19 on board but has covered last two vs. Miami.
Slight to FSU, based on series trends.

NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN
Close games past few years though Cats have not won SU vs. Mich since 2008. Pat Fitz 5-2 last seven as road dog and 13-8 as dog since 2012. Harbaugh 2-1 as home chalk TY.
Slight to NU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON
Paul Johnson has dropped three straight vs. line after covering nine in a row. He is 4-3 SU and vs. spread against Dabo. Jackets were 6-0 as dog LY but 0-1 in role TY.
Slight to GT, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at ULL
Franchione was 6-0 vs. line away LY but only 0-2 in role thus far in 2015. Hudspeth just 5-7 as Cajun Field chalk since 2013 (1-1 TY).
Slight to Texas State, based on team trends.

CAL at UTAH
Utes 1-1 as home chalk TY, just 6-6 last 12 in role. Dykes 6-2 as dog LY (5-0 as road dog).
Cal, based on team trends.

UCONN at UCF
UCF 0-5 SU and vs. line, now on 0-6 streaks since late LY. O'Leary 1-6 last 7 as Orlando chalk.
UConn, based on recent UCF woes.

UTEP at FIU
UTEP 2-11 as DD road dog for Kugler since 2013 (0-2 TY). FIU on 12-6 spread uptick since late 2013.
FIU, based on team trends.

LA TECH at UTSA
Coker has covered the last two vs. Skip. Tech 9-2 vs. spread last 11 away from Ruston.
La Tech, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE
Boise has won and covered last four years vs. CSU. Rams 23-11-1 vs. spread since late 2012 and 9-5 last 13 as dog. Rams 12-4 vs. spread last 16 at Fort Collins.
Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at MISSOURI
McElwain 4-1 vs. line with Gators and 25-9 vs. spread last 34 on board dating to CSU days. Mizzou has covered all three vs. Gators since entering SEC and won big last two but 1-4 vs. line TY.
Florida, based on recent trends.

LSU at SOUTH CAROLINA
Spurrier 3-8 vs. spread last ten SEC games. But he's 8-4 as dog since 2012 and 5-0 as home dog since 2009. Les Miles 1-6 last 7 as chalk away from Baton Rouge.
Slight to SC, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA
Rich-Rod just 9-10 as Tucson chalk since 2012 (1-1 TY). Beavs no covers in four as road dog since LY (0-1 TY) and now 1-7 as dog since 2014.
Slight to Arizona, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at SOUTH FLORIDA
Cuse 3-1 vs. line TY though Shafer just 3-5 as road dog since 2013. USF 2-7 as Tampa chalk since 2012 (1-0 TY).
Slight to Syracuse, based on team trends.

TCU at KANSAS STATE
Bill Snyder 5-1 as home dog since 2011, 17-7 overall as dog since 2011. Snyder 2-1 SU vs. Patterson since Frogs entered Big 12. Frogs 3-10 last 13 as visiting chalk (0-2 TY).
K-State, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS TECH
ISU 2-6 vs. spread last eight on Big 12 road. Tech 1-4-1 last six as favorite.
Slight to ISU, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at RUTGERS
Dantonio 0-5 vs. line TY, but Rutgers no covers last three in 2015. MSU was 12-2 as visiting chalk entering this season before non-cover at WMU. Knights were 9-4 as dog 2013-14 for Flood but 0-1 in role TY.
MSU, based on extended road chalk marks.

WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA
Mike Riley 4-13 vs. line since LY (2-3 with Neb). Wisconsin has covered all four meetings (three of those emphatically) since Huskers joined Big Ten.
Slight to Wiscy, based on series trends.

NEW MEXICO at NEVADA
Bob Davie on 8-3 spread run, also 9-3 last 12 as road dog. Pack 3-9 last 12 as Reno chalk.
New Mexico, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UNLV
Spartans 7-1 as road chalk since 2012 (3-1 for Caragher). Sanchez 4-1 vs. line but Rebs just 1-5 last six in once-profitable home dog role (0-1 for Sanchez).
San Jose, based on team and series trends.

UTAH STATE at FRESNO STATE
Utags 7-2 as road chalk since 2012. Also 17-8 last 25 vs. line away from Logan. Fresno 10-19-1 vs. spread last 29 vs. FBS foes. DeRuyter 3-10 last 13 as dog.
Utah State, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at HAWAII
Aztecs have covered last three years in series. Chow only 7-8 vs. spread last 15 at Aloha, and Leahey 1-6 last seven vs. line at home vs. MW foes. SDSU 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on MW trail.
SDSU, based on series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action

October 6, 2015


SMU MUSTANGS (1-4) at HOUSTON COUGARS (4-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston -25; Total: 74.5

Houston tries to remain unbeaten on Thursday night when it hosts heavy underdog SMU in a matchup of Texas teams in the American Athletic Conference.

The Mustangs started the season 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU), but have allowed 97 points during a two-game ATS skid to 13-point underdog James Madison and 5.5-point road favorite East Carolina. The Cougars have rolled up three straight ATS victories, prevailing at 13-point favorite Louisville before big wins over Texas State (59-14) and at Tulsa last week (38-24).

These teams are meeting for the 11th consecutive year with Houston holding a commanding 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) advantage over SMU in this series since 2005. The past six meetings have all been blowouts with the Mustangs winning by 30 in 2012 and the Cougars five victories coming by 23, 25, 30, 34 and 26 points last year (35-9). The 2014 matchup was actually a 9-7 SMU lead at halftime before Houston closed the game with 28 unanswered points.

Most of Thursday's betting trends lean towards the Cougars, such as their 8-1 ATS record versus good offenses (31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points with an incredible offense (6.4+ yards per play) going 34-7 ATS in the past 10 seasons after 6.75+ yards per play in two straight games. But the Mustangs are 20-9 ATS versus good rushing defenses (120 or less YPG allowed) since 1992, including 3-0 ATS in the past three seasons.

Injuries shouldn't be a big factor here, but SMU did lose DB Rodney Clemons to a season-ending knee injury last week while CB Horace Richardson (undisclosed) is questionable for Thursday. Houston's only new injury is WR Linell Bonner, whose bad hamstring has him listed as questionable for this matchup.

SMU's offense has been pretty effective this season with 31.4 PPG on 429 total YPG. A strong 23.4 first downs per game has kept the time of possession well over 30 minutes per game (32:39). Junior QB Matt Davis has thrown for 1,182 yards (8.1 YPA) on 60% completions, 8 TD and 2 INT, including four straight games without throwing a pick. But Davis did very little versus Houston last year, as nearly half his 145 yards (13-of-27, 5.4 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT) came on a 67-yard touchdown pass.

However, Davis didn't have freshman WR Courtland Sutton that game, which could make a huge difference on Thursday. The 6-foot-4 Sutton has been unbelievable with 21 catches for 450 yards (21.4 avg) and 5 TD, and no other Mustangs receiver has more than 13 catches, 163 yards and 2 TD.
The rushing attack has also been strong with 185 YPG on 4.0 YPC. Davis is the club's leading rusher with 380 yards (4.3 YPC) and 6 TD, while freshman RB Xavier Jones has contributed 279 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns.

The SMU defense has been dreadful though, allowing 44.4 PPG and 593 total YPG, including 51.0 PPG on 668 total YPG in the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been gashed for 285 YPG on 6.6 YPC and the passing defense has also been burned for 309 YPG on 60% completions and 10.0 YPA. One area the defense has flourished is turnovers, as it has 11 takeaways this year, including five over the past two weeks. Forcing miscues will be a big factor in determining whether or not this game stays close, because the last time SMU won in this series in 2012, it forced nine turnovers. However, this year's Cougars team has just three giveaways over four games.

Houston's offense has been potent all season with 45.7 PPG on 604 total YPG, including 55.5 PPG and 658 total YPG in two home games. The team has both rushed for more than 225 yards and thrown for more than 225 yards in all four contests.

Junior QB Greg Ward Jr. has completed 70% of his passes for 1,058 yards (8.9 YPA), 8 TD and only 1 INT. Although he didn't throw a touchdown last week at Tulsa, he did run for three scores as part of his 182 rushing yards (9.1 YPC). He now leads the Cougars with 472 rushing yards (7.3 YPC) and seven touchdowns. While Ward didn't throw very effectively at SMU last year (17-of-28, 144 yds, 5.1 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT), he did his damage on the ground with 93 yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Senior RB Kenneth Farrow (385 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD) was Houston's leading rusher in that win in Dallas with 110 yards on 18 carries (6.1 YPC) and 2 TD. The other star for this Cougars offense is junior WR Demarcus Ayers, who has 32 receptions for 377 yards and 3 TD. Ayers has been much more potent in two home games (247 rec yds) than in two road tilts (130 rec yds) this year.

The Houston defense has been solid this season in limiting opponents to 23.2 PPG and 398 total YPG, including 82 rushing YPG on a mere 2.4 YPC. Opponents have chosen to take the air much more though, gaining 316 YPG on 60% completions and 7.6 YPA. The unit has been able to keep opponents' scores low by forcing 11 turnovers, including 10 in the past three games. With SMU already having three games with 2+ giveaways, the Cougars will be going after the football on Thursday.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (2-2) at USC TROJANS (3-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: USC -17, Total: 56

No. 17 USC looks to care of business on Thursday night when it entertains conference foe Washington.

The Huskies failed to cover for the first time this season (3-1 ATS) in their last game on Sept. 26 when they lost 30-24 at home to 1-point underdog California. That same day the Trojans embarrassed Arizona State in Tempe with a 42-14 thrashing to improve to 3-1 ATS.

These Pac-12 schools are meeting for the first time since 2012 when USC won 24-14 at Washington. Since 2002, the Trojans hold a commanding 9-2 SU advantage in this series, but the Huskies have the 6-5 ATS edge in this timeframe.

Bettors of both schools have some nice trends to look at with Washington 13-4 ATS coming off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992 and head coach Chris Petersen's 23-9 ATS mark on the road versus good passing teams (58%+ completions). Those expecting USC to win big can point to the fact that underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in a game involving two excellent passing teams (8.3+ YPA) after allowing 8+ YPA in the previous game are a miserable 6-30 ATS since 1992. Also, Steve Sarkisian is 9-1 ATS at home versus good rushing defenses (120 or less rushing YPG) in his head coaching career.

Sarkisian certainly knows his Thursday opponent having coached at Washington for five years (2009-13) before taking his current gig with USC. But he will have a handful of injury concerns with WR Darreus Rogers (hamstring) doubtful and DTs Antwaun Woods (pectoral) and Claude Pelon (ankle) both questionable for the Trojans. The Huskies have only one significant injury with FS Budda Baker (ankle) listed as questionable.

Washington's offense has picked up some steam in the past three games with 34.7 PPG and 415 total YPG. Freshman QB Jake Browning has not played well against a top-notch opponent though, gaining only 302 passing yards, 0 TD and 3 INT in two games versus Power 5 schools (Boise State and Cal), as opposed to a hefty 694 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT versus smaller schools (Sacramento State and Utah State).

His top receiver this season has been junior fullback Dwayne Washington (17 rec, 223 yds, 2 TD), who racked up an impressive 109 yards on 10 catches and a touchdown in the loss to Cal. Browning's top wideout is WR Jaydon Mickens (13 rec, 121 yds), who is averaging only 9.3 yards per catch and has not scored a touchdown yet.

The Huskies have not done a great job running the football with a mere 107 YPG on 3.6 YPC. This includes just 181 yards on 62 carries (2.9 YPC) over the past two games. Freshman FB Myles Gaskin leads the team with 209 yards on 39 carries (5.4 YPC), but most of those yards (146) came against Sacramento State. In the other three games, he has only 63 yards on 25 carries (2.5 YPC). But the biggest deficiency of this offense is turnovers, as the team already has 10 giveaways, including eight in the past two games.

Defensively, Washington has played great football in allowing only 15.7 PPG and 321 total YPG (4.3 yards per play). This includes the last game against the explosive Cal offense when the unit surrendered 481 yards and 30 points. The run-stop unit has been particularly stout this year in holding opponents to 104 YPG on a mere 2.6 YPC. The Huskies have also forced seven turnovers, including two takeaways in three of the four contests. But taking the ball away from their Thursday opponent won't be easy considering the Trojans have committed only two turnovers all season.

USC's offense has been rolling this season with 46.7 PPG on 532 total YPG. Senior QB Cody Kessler has thrown at least three touchdowns in all four games, totaling 15 TD and only 1 INT to go along with his 1,297 passing yards, 10.6 YPA and 73% completion rate. Sophomore WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has been incredible this year with 537 receiving yards (19.9 avg) and 6 TD. He has scored touchdowns in all four games and has gained at least 89 yards in all four contests. Although Smith-Schuster is dealing with a personal issue, his status is probable for Thursday.

The Trojans have slipped a bit rushing the football though with only 231 yards on 3.9 YPC in the past two games. Despite blowing out Arizona State in the most recent contest, USC managed only 76 yards on 32 totes (2.4 YPC). Freshman RB Ronald Jones II is the team's leading ball carrier (242 rush yards, 8.1 YPC) and ran well against the Sun Devils with 54 yards on 10 totes. However the No. 2 option, senior RB Tre Madden (213 rush yards, 5.8 YPC), was held to an anemic seven yards on nine carries.

The USC defense allowed 41 points in a loss to Stanford, but only 29 points combined in the three wins. That's a pretty impressive feat considering the team's hefty 35:26 average time of possession. The Trojans have given up chunks of yardage though with 410 total YPG broken down as 164 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 246 passing YPG (6.6 YPA). While USC has forced eight turnovers, four of those came last game at Arizona State and the other four came in the season opener versus Arkansas State. With Washington's lack of ball security this year, look for the Trojans defense to really go after the football on Thursday night.

[StarDust Bum]

Washington at USC

October 6, 2015

The Pac-12 is in the spotlight Thursday night with a key game between Washington and USC. High-profile coaches that are very familiar with each other will be on the sidelines tonight in Los Angeles as the Huskies look for a major upset while USC looks to take aim at a conference title even with more prominent games ahead in the coming weeks. Here is a look at both teams in the first meeting since 2012 for the programs.

Match-up: Washington Huskies at USC Trojans
Venue: Los Angeles Memoral Coliseum in Los Angeles, California
Time/TV: Thursday, October 8, 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: USC -17, Over/Under 56
Last Meeting: 2012, USC (-14) 24-14 at Washington

The Trojans were on the short list of serious national title contenders at the outset of the season, returning a lot of experience from a team that went 9-4 in Steve Sarkisian’s first season back in Los Angeles. Sarkisian was an assistant under Pete Carroll for several seasons before taking the head coaching job at Washington in 2009. In five seasons in Seattle, Sarkisian went 35-29 with four bowl appearances after taking over a program that had gone 0-12 in 2008. These teams did not play last season as this will be his first shot at playing a team filled with many kids that he recruited and coached.

USC has lost one of its first four games in now five straight seasons with the Trojans falling in the Pac-12 opener three weeks ago hosting Stanford. The Pac-12 is strong enough that a one-loss champion should still earn an invite to the national playoff in most scenarios as Oregon did last season, but the margin of error is now very slim for the Trojans. USC plays Notre Dame next week on the road in non-conference action and then will face the two remaining undefeated teams in the conference Utah and California in the following two weeks, though at least one of those teams will take a loss before they play USC as they play each other Saturday. USC will also still travel to Eugene as well as hosting Arizona and UCLA in November as getting through the rest of the season without losing again may be a long shot even though this is a highly regarded team.

The Trojans are led by senior quarterback Cody Kessler who has joined a storied list of prolific USC passers with huge numbers the past two seasons. After throwing for over 3,800 yards last season with 39 touchdowns and only five interceptions, he entered the season on the Heisman Trophy shortlist. Through four games this season, he is on pace for another big season with nearly 1,300 yards passing and 15 touchdowns against just one interception with his completion rate over 73 percent. Sophomore JuJu Smith-Schuster has been his favorite target with 27 receptions and over 500 yards already and the USC running game has been productive with 5.4 yards per carry led by freshman Ronald Jones II and senior Tre Madden.

While USC won by lopsided margins vs. Arkansas State and Idaho early this season, there were concerns as the defense allowed over 700 yards in the two games combined. Those concerns have not been alleviated in Pac-12 play as USC has allowed over 900 yards in the two games vs. Stanford and Arizona State, checking in at 91st nationally in total defense despite being 22nd in scoring defense. Senior cornerback Kevon Seymour seems likely to return this week, but the secondary will have its hands full with Washington’s strong group of wide receivers led by senior Jaydon Mickens, who originally committed to USC.

Now leading the Huskies at quarterback is true freshman Jake Browning as last season’s starter Cyler Miles was forced to retire. Browning was a bit of surprise to win the starting job but he has been accurate, completing 65 percent of his passes. He has thrown four interceptions while posting just five touchdown passes and modest yardage but he looks the part of a player that can lead the team for the next few years. A lot of throws have gone to junior Dwayne Washington out of the backfield, who actually leads the team in receptions while freshman tailback Myles Gaskin has been the main rushing threat.

Chris Petersen is in his second season in Seattle after a highly successful run at Boise State. He took the Huskies to a bowl game last season with an 8-6 season that included a 4-5 conference record though no notable wins on the season with the most impressive victory being a 31-7 win at California. Washington played within two scores with Stanford, Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona as Oregon was the only team to pull away from Washington, who went 6-3 ATS in conference play.

Washington has outstanding defensive numbers at this point in the season and the schedule has featured some heft with a narrow loss at Boise State as well as a narrow loss hosting California in a 2-2 start. Neither of those games was as close in the box score as on the scoreboard and holding Sacramento State and Utah State to low yardage totals and scores skews the numbers. In the Pac-12 opener, California had a 28-15 edge in first downs while posting 481 yards with most of that in the air as Washington trailed by 20 in the second half before late scoring made the outcome look more competitive than it was.

Keeping emotions in check will be big for both teams as USC has to avoid looking ahead to the national stage with the Notre Dame game up next. Washington should be excited to play in primetime against a highly-ranked foe and may have some extra intensity facing their former coach that departed the program. Tempo will also be worth watching as USC has not often come close to the 80 plays per game that Sarkisian stated as the goal before the season started while Washington will want to limit the number of possessions that the explosive USC offense will have. Turnovers will play a big part in that as Washington has committed 10 turnovers already this season while USC has one of the better turnover margins in the nation at +6, committing only two on their own end.

Historical Trends:

USC is 9-2 S/U in this series since 2002, but they have failed to cover in six of the last eight meetings, though they won by 23 as a 12½-point favorite in the last home meeting in 2011. USC is on a 16-9 ATS run as a home favorite since 2011 while going 9-4 ATS in that span when giving at least 14 points at home including covering in both instances this season. Washington is just 14-19 ATS as a road underdog since 2007. The Huskies are on a 5-14-1 ATS run as a road underdog of 14 or more points since 2001, including going 0-3 the past three seasons.

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Big Ten Report - Week 6
October 7, 2015

Northwestern (5-0) at Michigan (4-1) - BTN, 3:30 PM EST
Current Line: Wolverines (-7.5)
Opening Line: Wolverines (-8)

Before you look at this very low total (currently 35) and think about jumping on the OVER, let’s take a look at what these two teams have done the last 2 seasons when facing each other. Last year NW played host to Michigan as a 2-point underdog and the Wolverines came out on top 10-9. The two teams ran 143 combined plays and only averaged 3.6 YPP. In 2013 Michigan traveled to Northwestern as a 3-point dog and won the game 27-19. However, that game took 3 OT’s to decide and the score at the end of regulation was 9-9. The two teams combined for 687 yards (including OT) on 170 plays which was just 4 YPP. Obviously two games dominated by the defenses and we don’t see that changing this year. These two teams are ranked #1 (Northwestern) and #2 (Michigan) nationally in scoring defense allowing 7.0 and 7.6 PPG respectively. They are both in the top 5 in the country in overall defense with Michigan allowing 184 YPG (2nd) and NW allowing 247 YPG (5th). Northwestern has allowed just 3 offensive TD’s in 5 games this year and only ONE of those TD drives was longer than 26 yards. The Wolverines have allowed just 4 offensive TD’s in 5 games.

Both of these teams pitched shutouts last week with NW topping Minnesota 27-0 and Michigan rolling Maryland 28-0. Historically speaking, Michigan has won 21 of the 25 meetings since 1980 including winning nine of the last 10. Michigan lost starting LB and third leading tackler Mario Ojemudia for the season in last week’s win at Maryland. Both teams have drastically overachieved compared to where the market had them placed prior to the season. Coming into the year Northwestern was 500/1 to win the National Championship and they have since dropped to 200/1. Michigan came into the season at 60/1 to win it all and they are currently 22/1.

Minnesota (3-2) at Purdue (1-4) - ESPN, 3:30 PM EST
Current Line: Gophers (-3)
Opening Line: Gophers (-3)

The Gophers have been favored on the road in Big Ten play only twice in the last 5 seasons. Both of those contests were at Illinois in 2012 and 2014. Minny won and covered at Illinois in 2012 and lost outright a year ago. They have been favored at Purdue only twice since 1980 winning and covering one of those games and losing the other outright. The Boilers have not had much of a home field advantage as of late winning just 3 of their last 16 games at Ross-Ade Stadium. This is a battle of the Big Ten’s worst scoring offense (Minnesota) against the league’s worst scoring defense (Purdue). The Gophers are averaging only 15 PPG on the season and have scored only 8 TD’s while everyone else in the Big Ten has scored at least 11. The Purdue defense is allowing 33 PPG and has allowed a Big Ten worst 21 TD’s on the season.

The Boilers have been very close to picking up a win on a number of occasions this year. Last week was no different at they were down 24-21 at Michigan State but driving late near midfield for a potential game winning (or at least game tying) score when they were shutout on downs ending the game. It was again turnovers that killed them as they were -3 for the game and now have 12 turnovers on the season. Two of their three turnovers last week led to MSU touchdowns. Minnesota did absolutely nothing against Northwestern’s defense last week gaining only 173 yards on barely over 3 YPP. Of their 13 offensive possessions, Minny crossed midfield just 3 times and never got inside the NW 30-yard line. While Minnesota is 3-2 on the year they are somewhat lucky to be In that spot as their 3 wins have come by a total of 9 points.

Indiana (4-1) at Penn State (4-1) - ESPN2, 12:00 PM EST
Current Line: (N/A)
Opening Line: (N/A)

After losing their season opener to Temple, the Nittany Lions have ripped of 4 straight wins. However, those wins have come against Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State and Army, none of whom have a winning record at this point in the season. All were at home as well. Last week’s 20-14 win over Army was not impressive. They were outgained by Army and PSU had a +3 turnover margin in the game. The 3 Cadet turnovers led to half of the PSU points (10). Even with that, a poor Army team, had the ball in Penn State territory on their final drive of the game with a chance to win. This was against an Army team that had lost to Fordham, Wake Forest, and Connecticut already this season. The Nits offense continues to struggle as they rank dead last in the Big Ten averaging only 328 YPG. Even with a highly ranked QB at the helm (Hackenberg) they are putting up only 171 YPG through the air. Their defense will have to keep them in games and they have done so thus far allowing only 4.4 YPP.

Indiana gave Ohio State a run last week despite getting outgained by 115 yards. IU lost their top RB Howard and QB Sudfeld both are questionable for this one. If those two are healthy, the Hoosiers can move the ball and put points on the board. They are the #1 offense in the Big Ten averaging 498 YPG. The problem is, they are the worst defense in the conference allowing 502 YPG. Their physical and emotional state here will be a big factor in this game. How do they respond after their huge home game with Ohio State? Penn State has dominated this series winning 17 of the 18 meetings since 1980. The Nits have been favored in all 18 of those games and will be again on Saturday. IU’s lone win in this series was just 2 years ago where they dominated PSU 44-24. Last year was a tight game with Penn State squeaking by 13-7 on the road.

Illinois (4-1) at Iowa (5-0) - ESPNU, 12:00 PM EST
Current Line: Hawkeyes (-11)
Opening Line: Hawkeyes (-11.5)

Not many people thought these two teams would be sitting at a combined 9-1 record when they meet this Saturday. Both are off huge wins last week. Iowa went to Wisconsin and outlasted the Badgers 10-6. UW outgained Iowa by 100 yards in the game but had 4 turnovers. Iowa’s 10 points came after Wisconsin turnovers and resulted in scoring drives of 30 yards (TD) and 1 yard (FG). The Badgers also fumbled on the Iowa 1-yard line going to take the lead in the 4th quarter and got to the Iowa 16-yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. Illinois trailed 13-0 at home vs Nebraska entering the 4th quarter but pulled out the 14-13 win. The Illini scored the game winning TD with 10 seconds left in the game and were given that opportunity because of some terrible clock management by Nebraska with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Illini lost starting RB Ferguson (381 yards rushing) early in the game to a shoulder injury and he will not play vs Iowa on Saturday.

Iowa has controlled this series as of late winning 6 of the last 7. Illinois has had trouble putting points on the board as they have topped 14 points only once in the last 7 meetings. Between 2000 and 2013 these teams met 7 times with the home team covering all 7. That changed last year when Iowa went to Illinois as a 3.5 point favored and rolled the Illini 30-14. It was a fluke as the Hawks had advantages of 26 to 12 in first downs and 587 to 235 in total yardage. The oddsmakers have tabbed Iowa an 11-point favorite in this game. The Hawks have been a black hole in that situation going just 2-13 ATS their last 15 as a double digit favorite vs a Big Ten opponent.

Maryland (2-3) at Ohio State (5-0) - BTN, 12:00 PM EST
Current Line: Buckeyes (-33)
Opening Line: Buckeyes (-32.5)

Ohio State had another close call last week at Indiana. They held off the Hoosiers to win 35-28 but that didn’t help their money backers as OSU was a 22-point favorite in the game. QB Cardale Jones struggled again missing a number of opportunities to put points on the board with poor throws. Despite having what many consider the top 2 QB’s in the conference on the same team (Jones and Barrett), the Bucks rank 78th nationally in passing efficiency. In the Big Ten, Rutgers, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Nebraska all rank higher in that category. Jones ranks 10th in the conference in passing yards per game (173) and 84th nationally in completion percentage. Despite their “struggles” OSU has by far the best YPP differential (offensive YPP minus defensive YPP) in the Big Ten at +3.0 (Michigan is next at +2.4). Urban Meyer said this week that his team is “very close” to being very good with turnovers (-4 on the season) and red zone production (12th in the Big Ten) holding them back right now. One big injury for the Bucks in last week’s game was WR Corey Brown who was lost for the season with a broken leg.

After starting the season 2-1, Maryland has lost their last two games (West Virginia and Michigan) by a combined score of 73-6. Inexplicably, head coach Edsall chose to stick with turnover machine Caleb Rowe as the starter. Rowe did what he has done all year and that is throw picks. He threw 3 more last week vs Michigan giving him a whopping 12 for the season. Rowe has now thrown 12 interceptions in 101 pass attempts meaning one pick for every 8.4 pass attempts. Edsall did bring Daxx Garman in late and while he was just 2 of 9, at least he didn’t turn the ball over. In last week’s home loss to Michigan, the Terps put up a total of 105 yards on 61 plays or only 1.7 YPP. OSU was favored by just 7-points at Maryland last year and crushed the Terps 52-24.

Michigan State (5-0) at Rutgers (2-2) - BTN, 8:00 PM EST
Current Line: Spartans (-14)
Opening Line: Spartans (-16)

This line dropped quickly from its opener at MSU -16. Sparty continues to skirt by in games they should be dominating. Their 24-21 win last week vs Purdue pushed their record to 5-0 but they have yet to cover the spread (0-5 ATS). Not only are the winless vs the number they haven’t been close losing to the spread by more than 40 points on the season. The Spartans have been outgained in 3 of their 5 games and are only +11 total yards on the season. In their last two games they led Central Michigan by just 7 points in the 4th quarter and Purdue had the ball in MSU territory on their final drive with a chance to win. MSU has been banged up on the offensive line with both starting tackles (Conklin and Kieler) out last week. It got so bad last week that MSU’s All American center, Jack Allen, had to be moved to left tackle. It may get better for Sparty this week as Conklin and Kieler are both listed on the depth chart and may play. Despite their ATS struggles this year, MSU has been great in this “large road favorite” role as of late. Since 2007, Sparty has been a road chalk of -14 or more 15 times covering 13 of those games.

Rutgers had last week off to get ready for this game. The Rutgers players have been mentioning “revenge” with frequency this week after last year’s embarrassing performance. The Spartans won last year’s match up 45-3 outgained the Knights by almost 300 yards. Rutgers comes in at 2-2 with their two wins coming against Norfolk State and Kansas with losses to Washington St and Penn St. Their two wins are far from impressive as the opponents (Norfolk and Kansas) are a combined 0-6 vs FBS opponents getting outscored by a total of 252-80. In their lone Big Ten game this year, Rutgers was whipped 28-3 at Penn State and allowed the Nittany Lions to gain 471 yards. That was PSU’s largest offensive output of the season.

Wisconsin (3-2) at Nebraska (2-3) - ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 PM EST
Current Line: Huskers (-1.5)
Opening Line: Huskers (-2.5)

The Huskers have had a season’s worth of disappointment already this season. Last week they lost at Illinois 14-13 with the Illini scoring the winning TD with just 10 seconds remaining. The Huskers had the ball and a 13-7 lead with under 1:00 minute remaining but botched their clock management giving Illinois a chance to win. Nebraska’s 3 losses this year have come on a hail mary to BYU, in OT at Miami, in the final 10 seconds at Illinois. Head coach Mike Riley admitted in his news conference this week that his team’s hurdles this week are not only physical, but also mental because of the way they have lost. Wisconsin may also have a tough time getting back up off the matt. The Badgers outplayed Iowa last week (+100 yards) and had a number of chances to pick up the win but turnovers killed them in the 10-6 home loss. It was only Wisconsin’s 8th home loss in their last 77 home games. This week Wisconsin will be without starting TE Traylor who was injured last week and possibly their top WR Erickson who left the Iowa game with a concussion. There is also chance the Badgers will be without one of their top defensive players as OLB Vince Biegel has an undisclosed injury.

Nebraska is very thin on the D Line right now as they lost another player last weekend. DT Kevin Maurice will be out for at least a month after fracturing his foot at Illinois. Another DT Kevin Williams has been ruled out for Saturday’s game and yet another, Vincent Valentine, hasn’t played since week 2 and might not again this week. The Huskers have had to move a few defensive ends inside to tackle to compensate for the injuries. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, the Badgers have dominated the series with wins of 48-17, 70-31, and 59-24 (last year). The lone Nebraska win was here at Memorial Stadium by a score of 30-27.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6


Thursday's games

Unbeaten Houston ran ball for 319 ypg in three wins vs I-A opponents; they've also allowed 300+ PY in all four games. Cougars are 23-14 as a home favorite since '08; they won eight of last nine games vs SMU, with 35-9/34-0 wins last two meetings (only loss was 74-42). Mustangs lost last four trips here (0-3 vs spread last three); they're 9-14 last 23 games as a road underdog. SMU allowed 51 ppg in its last three games overall.

USC coach Sarkisian opposes his old team for first time; Trojans won nine of last 11 games with Washington- underdogs are 6-2 vs spread last eight series games, but Huskies lost six of last seven visits here (2-5 vs spread). Petersen is 7-4 as road underdog as a HC, covering 16-13 (+12) in only road game this year, at Boise State. USC is 16-9 in last 25 games as HF; they go to Notre Dame next week- they better not overlook this.

Friday's games

Marshall won last four games with Southern Miss, scoring 59+ points in three of the four; favorites covered six of last nine series games. Herd is 10-3 in last 13 games as home favorite; they allowed 229-247 rushing yards in two losses this year, 154.7 ypg in three wins. USM is 8-7 as a road underdog under Monken; they allowed 34+ points in three of four games vs I-A foes this year- they scored 49+ points in all three wins.

Virginia Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, losing last two games at ECU and to Pitt at home; Hokies won three of last four games with NC State; the last one was in 2010. Tech QB Brewer is gametime decision after he missed couple of games with injury. Wolfpack played four stiffs, then lost at home to Louisville in rain last week; State is 6-1 vs spread in last seven road games; they're 14-11-1 as road underdogs since 2008.

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NCAAF

Thursday, October 8

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Game of the Day: Washington at USC
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The Trojans welcome Steve Sarkisian's former squad Washington to town for the first time since he has taken over at USC.

Washington Huskies at Southern California Trojans (-17, 56)

Steve Sarkisian coaches against his former team for the first time on Thursday when No. 17 USC hosts Washington in Pac-12 play. Sarkisian spent five seasons as coach of the Huskies before departing after the 2013 season and the Huskies replaced him with Chris Petersen, who hotly pursued the Trojans' gig but reportedly was underwhelming during the interview process.

Petersen, who went from Boise State to Washington, is still putting his stamp on the Huskies program during his second season as coach. Freshman quarterback Jake Browning has walked on campus and thrown for 996 yards and five touchdowns in four games as Washington looks toward the future. Sarkisian's goal is reaching the Pac-12 title game and he claims there is nothing special about coaching against the Huskies for the initial time. “I respect those kids a lot," Sarkisian told reporters. "We recruited them and got them to come to Seattle with the best interests at heart to go out and be successful. It’s going to be fun to compete against them. I know they’re going to be ready to go. I wouldn’t expect anything less of them.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line hasn't moved from its opening number of USC -17. The total also has held steady at its opening number of 56.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - DB B. Baker (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB A. Joyner (out for season, knee), WR J. Ross (out for season, knee).

USC - DT A. Woods (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB K. Seymour (probable Thursday, knee), WR J. Smith (probable Thursday, personal), DT C. Pelon (questionable Thursday, ankle), G K. Rodgers (questionable Thursday, personal), WR D. Rogers (doubtful Thursday, hamstring).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. It is expected to be a clear night with temperatures in the low 80's at gametime, with a very slight two mile per hour wind blowing towards the East endzone.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Cody Kessler has thrown for 1297 yards with 15 TDs and just one pick. He's having a Heisman caliber season, and the Trojans are still a contender after a big road win over the Sun Devils."

ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-2, 0-1 Pac-12): The Huskies have been stellar on defense and lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense (15.8), total defense (321.0 yards per game) and rushing defense (104.5). Junior cornerback Kevin King has a team-high three interceptions and sophomore linebacker Azeem Victor has a team-best 38 tackles. Freshman running back Myles Gaskin (209 yards) and junior Dwayne Washington (138) split the rushing duties while Washington also leads the Huskies with 17 receptions and 223 receiving yards.

ABOUT USC (3-1, 1-1): Senior quarterback Cody Kessler has been spectacular through four games by completing 73 percent of his passes for 1,297 yards, 15 touchdowns and just one interception. Freshman Ronald Jones II (242 yards) and senior Tre Madden (213) are the top two rushers while standout sophomore wideout Juju Smith-Schuster has hauled in 27 receptions for 537 yards and six touchdowns. Freshman inside linebacker Cameron Smith has a team-leading 30 tackles while junior outside linebacker Su'a Cravens has 27 tackles -- including four for losses -- and one interception.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 4-1 in USC's last five home games.

CONSENSUS: The public is almost dead split in this matchup, with 51.47 percent of wagers giving the Trojans a very slight edge.

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Big profits could come from betting these NCAAF small-conference teams

The San Jose State Spartans make a major shift in competition this week, facing UNLV after going toe-to-toe with Auburn last weekend.

Team to Watch: San Jose State Spartans

This week: -2.5 at UNLV Rebels

The San Jose State Spartans will come into this one with a huge amount of confidence having put in an impressive performance in their last contest. The Spartans travelled cross country and gave the Auburn Tigers all they could handle before ultimately falling, 35-21. Even though Auburn is having a down year, it is still a team in the SEC conference which boasts bigger and stronger athletes than the conference opponents that SJSU will face this season.

UNLV is arguably the "hotter" team in this contest having won two straight, however, its 80-8 win over a lifeless Idaho State team and 23-17 victory over rival Nevada hardly constitutes tough competition. San Jose State should have a much easier time playing down to the talent level on UNLV. The fact the Spartans played a much tougher opponent last week will likely pay dividends in this contest.


Team to beware of: Air Force Falcons

This week: -24 vs. Wyoming Cowboys

There’s no doubt that the Air force Falcons will come into this contest just a little bit irritated given the way that they were utterly dominated by their military counterparts, the Navy Midshipmen. However, this is a lot of points to ask a predominately ground-based offense to cover.

The Wyoming Cowboys are winless on the season and, while that certainly shows their struggles, we also believe they can use their record as a motivating factor. The players are tired of losing and are hungry to get their first win of the season. Even if they fall short in the win column, they should put forth a solid effort to at least keep themselves within striking distance and not allow yet another blowout.


Total team: San Diego State Aztecs

This week: 47 at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

San Diego State takes a trip to the island and are coming off one of their most dominating performances in some time ,as they held the Fresno State Bulldogs to just 96 total yards of offense in their last contest. The Aztecs are known for their defensive prowess, but was torched both on the ground and through the air in their past three contests. Having such an impressive performance over an opponent will likely light a spark under these players for another quality defensive performance.

The Hawaii Warriors have been inconsistent offensively under Norm Chow and at times it’s hard to tell what to expect from this team. They did manage to put up 70 points at home this season, however, that was against UC Davis, who has nowhere near the defensive chops that the Aztecs have. Teams that travel to the island always seem to struggle offensively, but good defense can play anywhere.

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http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/ar...ware-underdogs

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Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:00 PM EDT

303 SMU 71.5 71 / 71.5 / 71.5u11 72 +1400
304 HOUSTON U -22 -25.5 -05 / -25 / -25 -15 -25 -05 -3000

TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHEAST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 80, RH 66% HEAT INDEX 83

9:00 PM EDT

305 WASHINGTON 56 58 / 58o11 / 57.5 58 +580
306 USC -16.5 -16.5 -05 / -17 / -17 -15 -17 -805

WAU-QB-Cyler Miles-OUT | TV: ESPN, DTV: 209 | PARTLY CLOUDY, WEST WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 75, RH 63% HEAT INDEX 78

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NCAAF Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

9:00 PM Washington +17 795 50.64% Southern California -17 775 49.36% View View

8:00 PM Southern Methodist +25 821 53.63% Houston -25 710 46.37% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:00 PM Southern Methodist 71.5 618 54.55% Houston 71.5 515 45.45% View View

9:00 PM Washington 58 646 59.16% Southern California 58 446 40.84% View View

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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +25 500 *****

Houston - Over 71.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Washington - 9:00 PM ET Washington +17 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Southern California - Under 58 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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ECORD GOING INTO FRIDAY GAMES : ( 10/09/15)

CFB: 4 - 0 THURSDAY NIGHT

*****............................... 1 - 0
double play.........................2 - 0
triple play...........................1 - 0
blow out.............................0 - 0



COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

single play:.......................................22 - 18 - 1
double play:......................................30 - 30
triple play:........................................22 - 16
blow out:..........................................10 - 9
gow:.............................................. . ..1 - 0
gom:.............................................. . .0 - 0
goy............................................... .. ..0 - 0
upsets............................................ ....0 - 1
game of the day..................................1 - 1

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Friday's Tip Sheet
October 8, 2015

**Southern Miss at Marshall**

-- As of early Thursday, most betting shops had Marshall (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with the total in the 56-57 range. The Golden Eagles were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Southern Miss is one of just two teams in the country sporting a perfect 5-0 ATS record. To be clear, there's also Navy (4-0 ATS) and Toledo (3-0-1), both of whom are unscathed for our purposes.

-- Doc Holliday's sixth team at Marshall has won three in a row, including last week's 27-7 win over Old Dominion as a 16.5-point home 'chalk.' The 34 combined points stayed 'under' the 54-point total. True freshman QB Chase Litton completed 21-of-35 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. With star RB Devon Johnson out of the lineup with an injury, sophomore RB Tony Pittman rushed 32 times for 127 yards and one TD.

-- Johnson is 'questionable' vs. Southern Miss due to a back injury. He rushed for 1,767 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry last season. To date this year, Johnson has run for 390 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC.

-- Litton has an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio since taking over as the starting QB in the last three games. Ryan Yurachek has been Litton's favorite target, hauling in 20 receptions for 202 yards and three TDs.

-- Southern Miss (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) won its C-USA opener last weekend by blasting North Texas by a 49-14 count as a 14.5-point home 'chalk.' Nick Mullens stole the show by connecting on 27-of-36 passes for 325 yards and four TDs without an interception. Mullens also ran twice for 21 yards and another score. Justice Hayes, a transfer from Michigan, rushed for 86 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Ito Smith produced 84 rushing yards and one TD on nine totes. WR Michael Thomas made seven catches for 155 yards and three TDs, while Smith had seven receptions for 85 yards.

-- Mullens is enjoying a stellar junior campaign to date, connecting on 66.0 percent of his throws for 1,691 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio. Casey Martin has a team-high 29 receptions for 339 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 18 grabs for 336 yards and three TDs.

-- Todd Monken's squad is using a trio of RBs with plenty of effectiveness. Jalen Richard has run fora team-best 365 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Smith has run 45 times for 365 yards and three TDs for an eye-opening 8.1 YPC average. Hayes has run for 163 yards and a pair of scores.

-- Southern Miss owns an 8-7 spread record in 15 games as a road underdog on Monken's watch, going 2-0 ATS in a pair of such spots this season.

-- Marshall has won four in a row in this rivalry both SU and ATS, including last year's 63-17 shellacking in Hattiesburg.

-- Marshall is unbeaten in three home games this year, cashing tickets at a 2-1 ATS clip. During Holliday's six-year tenure, the Thundering Herd has compiled a 15-10-1 spread record in 26 games as a home favorite.

-- The 'under' is 3-2 overall for Marshall, 2-1 in its home games. The Thundering Herd has seen its games average a combined score of 50.8 points per game.

-- The 'under' is 3-2 overall for the Golden Eagles, 1-1 in their road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these C-USA adversaries.

-- CBS Sports Network will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**North Carolina St. at Virginia Tech**

-- Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer led his team to a 17-14 halftime lead over Ohio State in the season opener in Blacksburg. However, he injured his shoulder in the third quarter and hasn't played since then. However, he was upgraded to 'probable' on Wednesday and will get the starting nod Friday night at Lane Stadium.

-- As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had Virginia Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) listed as a 1.5 or two-point favorite with a total of 46.

-- Frank Beamer's team bounced back from a 42-24 season-opening home loss to Ohio St. by winning back-to-back contests vs. Furman (42-3) and at Purdue (51-24). However, Virginia Tech has dropped consecutive games since then, falling 35-28 at East Carolina two weeks ago before losing a 17-13 decision to Pitt last week as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Hokies were absolutely atrocious on offense against the Panthers, producing only 100 yards of total offense. They ran for just nine yards on 33 carries. Junior QB Brenden Motley was intercepted three times.

-- Virginia Tech senior nose tackle Corey Marshall, a second-team All-ACC selection last season, has been downgraded to 'doubtful' vs. N.C. State due to a hamstring injury. The defense has already lost All-American CB Kendall Fuller to a season-ending knee injury. Making matters worse, a pair of RBs (Marshawn Williams and Shai McKenzie) have also gone down with season-ending injuries.

-- North Carolina State raced out to a 4-0 record both SU and ATS with victories vs. Troy (49-21), vs. Eastern Kentucky (35-0), at Old Dominion (38-14) and at South Alabama (63-13). However, Dave Doeren's team suffered its first loss last Saturday when Louisville came into Raleigh and emerged with a 20-13 triumph as a 2.5-point underdog.

-- In the loss to U of L, N.C. State failed to convert on a pair of fourth-down plays and also coughed up a pair of fumbles. The offense could only manufacture 228 total yards, as the ground game produced only 45 rushing yards on 30 attempts. That fact can be attributed to the loss of the Pack's premier RB, senior Shadrach Thornton, who was dismissed from the program a few days before the Cardinals got into town. Thornton rushed for 907 yards and nine TDs last season. In two games this year, Thornton ran for 203 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC.

-- N.C. State has one of the ACC's best QBs in Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 2,606 yards with a 23/5 TD-INT ratio in 2014. He also ran for 529 yards and three TDs last year. In 2015 so far, Brissett is completing 73.2 percent of his passes for 992 yards and seven TDs without an interception. Jaylen Samuels has a team-best 25 receptions for 300 yards and four TDs.

-- N.C. State is vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. It returned eight starters from a unit that gave up 27.0 PPG in 2014. Granted, the Wolfpack will be facing better offenses in ACC play in the coming weeks, but we'll nonetheless note how it ranks third in the nation in total defense, sixth in rushing defense and ninth in pass defense. N.C. State is allowing only 13.6 PPG, ranking 11th in the country.

-- N.C. State has a 3-3-1 spread record in seven games as a road underdog on Doeren's watch. The Pack went 3-1 in four such spots last year and we should also mention that it is 2-0 ATS on the road this year, though both situations came in the double-digit 'chalk' role.

-- Since 2011, Virginia Tech has limped to a 7-16-1 ATS record in 24 games as a home favorite.

-- The 'over' is 4-1 overall for the Hokies, 2-1 in their home outings.

-- The 'under' is 3-2 overall for the Wolfpack, 1-1 in its road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. There's a 60-percent chance of rain in the weather forecast.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 6
October 9, 2015


Conference games are in full swing and the bookmakers have already started to adjust their numbers accordingly. Expect more changes in the upcoming weeks as the weather changes play a much bigger role.

Here's what we got for Week 6.

1) Correct sharp movement: Michigan State/Rutgers OVER

This line ticking up a full field goal already and I think it'll move even more prior to kickoff. My numbers call for both teams to exceed 400-plus yards of offense and if that's the case the current number should be easy to achieve. Despite lots of distractions, the Rutgers offense has performed pretty well and we've seen the talented Michigan State defense look pretty ordinary a few times this season.

It's hard to foresee a scenario here where the Spartans don't' reach the 33-37 point barrier and I think that (and the line movement shows that others agree) Rutgers can keep this game competitive. That should help push the game OVER the total and early bettors who got in at 51 have a great ticket.

2) Incorrect sharp movement: Ball State/Northern Illinois OVER

I can see bettors reasoning for betting this game up from the opener but neither of these teams resembles their quality past editions. Over the last five seasons these two teams have combined to average 69.6 points per game in their meetings and every single one of the contests has exceeded the opening number here (55.5).

Ball State has seemingly given up some points but they've played three very good teams (Texas A&M, Northwestern, Toledo) and their numbers have been skewed by that. The Huskies are allowing just 24 PPG and don't' have the explosive offense our great QB'ing they've enjoyed over the last few years. These teams are vey familiar with one another, both teams return eight defensive starters, and both have shown the tendency to play slower than normal in 2015.

3) Public movement: UMass/Bowling Green OVER

Well, this one was an easy one to predict. No surprise that public has taken the Bowling Green game and bet it up. EVERY Falcon game is getting hammered at the open and this one is no exception as it's moved 8.5 points already. UMass has allowed 48 and 62 points in it's two road games this season and the Falcons continue to be at the top of the NCAA in snaps per game. Their should be lots of plays in this game but the value from the total is gone after the line move and those betting late might get the short end of the stick.

4) Market manipulation: Washington State/Oregon UNDER

This one is a surprise to me as it's rare for any group to attempt to bet an Oregon game UNDER early. Here it's a false move downward but still not something that we've seen often. The Ducks are surely not up to past editions but they still own outstanding speed at the skill positions and have loads of 4-star recruits on the offensive side of the football. Washington State head coach Mike Leach only knows one style of play and his team will throw the ball 45-plus times in this contest.

That means lots of offensive snaps for a Ducks team that could use some confidence. Ducks last home game was the embarrassing 62-20 loss to Utah and the visiting Cougars offer the perfect foe to reverse that score. Mike Leach's team will move the ball on a mediocre Oregon defense but this is a "get right" opportunity for Oregon offense and I think we'll see them top 52 points. This number is being manipulated because someone is interested in playing OVER 71.

Aloha!