The Bum's Week # 4 National Football League Picks-Trends-News Etc !!

[StarDust Bum]

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 4 odds

Early money has already moved the line on the Jets and Dolphins. Football bettors may not want to wait any longer to fade the Fins.

Spread to bet now

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)

Based on what we’ve seen of the Dolphins this season, it’s hard to believe that Miami was actually a slight favorite in this one before early action flipped the line. The Dolphins are one of several NFL dumpster fires this season, and one more mail-it-in performance – especially at home – figures to cost Joe Philbin his job.

It’s hard to see how Miami moves the ball in this one against a solid Jets defense that has given up the fewest points in the AFC through three games this season. New York is one bad quarter (21 given up to the Eagles in the second period) away from being 3-0 and the surprise team of the league.

Spread to wait on

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+8.5)

This one could get ugly, and the seven in 10 fans laying money on the Packers in early wagering could push this one up even more. The 49ers defense actually looked decent in winning the opener at home (against Minnesota), but that has been followed by two crushing losses in which San Francisco allowed a total of 90 points (43 to Pittsburgh, 47 to Arizona). The Niners seem incapable of coming even close to stopping any team with a half-decent offense, so it should be interesting what it can do against the Packers.

Total to watch

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (42)

The Cardinals are off and running with dominant wins over the Saints, Bears and 49ers. None of those three figure to sniff of the playoffs this season, but the Cardinals still like the way the offense is humming – even if QB Carson Palmer is a little long in the tooth and may not go the full 16 games.

Granted, the Rams are dead last in the league in offense and have only 16 total points in the last two games. But St. Louis is reportedly planning some new wrinkles on offense to kick-start what has so far been an unimaginative offense, so 42 looks easily attainable in this one.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends to Watch - October

September 30, 2015


With the MLB playoffs underway, and the NBA set to start at the end of the month, October is a great month for sports fans alike. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during the month of October.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer. Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: Pittsburgh is 31-15 ATS as home favorites this month, but its difficult to back them against Baltimore (10/1) and Arizona (10/18) without Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Keep an eye on (Good): Who knows who the quarterback will be for Cleveland by the time Oct.18th rolls around, but we do know the Browns are 19-10 ATS this month at home and they will be underdogs when Denver arrives.

After a poor opening month, San Diego will have three shots to improve 25-16 ATS record in their building against Cleveland (10/4), Pittsburgh (10/12) and Oakland (10/25).

Keep an eye on (Bad): There is seldom much good to say about Jacksonville and this is yet another example. The Jaguars are 14-22 ATS in north Florida and only Houston will visit on the 18th, having sent the other home game to London.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina makes football bettors a lot of money on the road as evidenced by 24-15 ATS mark. In October, they have division game at Tampa Bay (10/4) and long trip to Seattle two weeks later.

Another squad which has been road warriors in the New York football Giants, who are 28-16 ATS and chances are they will not mind trips to Buffalo (10/4) or Philadelphia on the third Monday of the month.

Bad: Arizona has through the years struggled in Eastern Time zones and overall in the second month of the season they are desultory 13-26 ATS. If Carson Palmer stays healthy, the Cardinals can break away from their past at Detroit (10/11) and at Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Even when San Francisco has been a very good team, October roadies always gave them fits and they are 18-35 ATS. Off two wicked September away beatdowns, just one road contest in New Jersey versus the Giants (10/11).

Waiting for Tampa Bay to playing consistently, well, it is like waiting for a blood moon… it just doesn't happen very often. The Buccaneers are 15-27 ATS as visitors and have only one stop, in Washington on the 25th.

FAVORITES

Good: Note - Cleveland is 11-5 ATS, but cannot forecast this role for them.

Keep an eye on (Good): St. Louis has generally improved in the second month of the season, at least against the oddsmakers and is 20-11 ATS in this role. On the last Sunday of the month, the Browns pay a visit to the nearby Arch, with the Rams seeking to improve record. (Note: San Francisco is 39-23, but do not look here as favorites in October)

Bad: This will be a telling month for Cincinnati after hot start. The Bengals will be shorter home favorites versus Kansas City and Seattle to get things going, but are Halloween scary 9-23 ATS handing points. Trick or Treat?

Keep an eye on (Bad): With the almost Super Bowl champions Seattle off to a sluggish start in 2015, they need to win to build quick momentum. Being favored against Detroit (10/5) and Carolina (10/18) at home and a quick trip top Frisco four days later should help, but can you trust a team with 14-26 ATS record in this role?

Tampa Bay's already a favorite this year at home and failed miserably against Tennessee. With Sunshine State partner Jacksonville visiting on the 11th, will the Bucs be better than 15-26 ATS mark?

UNDERDOGS

Good: The Steelers are sterling 21-8 ATS catching points in Rocktober (think classic rock FM radio), yet as mentioned above, Mike Vick for Big Ben is not a good trade and Pittsburgh will be an underdog in at least three contests.

Keep an eye on (Good): As stated previously, the New York football Giants are excellent on the road, which makes them worth looking at as underdogs as 28-16 ATS.

Bad: The Niners drain bankrolls as dogs at 11-22 ATS and with matchups against the Packers, at Giants, Ravens and Seahawks, backing them might require a visit to ATM.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Maybe Minnesota's improving defense will make them better as pooches at Denver (10/4) and likely Detroit (10/25). The Vikings ship has mostly sunk catching points at 14-26 ATS.

Seattle is 21-32 ATS as underdogs this month and they should catch a small number in Cincy on the 11th.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): At 21-11 ATS, Atlanta pays a visit to the bayou on third Thursday of the month.

Not easy to imagine Chicago makes 21-12 ATS record better in the Motor City on the 18th. Same goes for San Fran when the Seahawks make annual visit on the 22rd. The 49ers are 21-13 ATS.

Pittsburgh has Baltimore on the first day of the month and will need their defense and running game to make 25-14 ATS record better.

Bad: New Orleans has the Dirty Birds in town in the middle of the month and shorter sportsbook figure gives them an opportunity to improve on 12-24 ATS mark.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Possibly Seattle will be such a large division road favorite in the Bay Area, they will not have chance to beat 15-27 ATS record.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Ravens at Steelers

September 30, 2015


When discussing Thursday night’s matchup, some want to keep harping about what might have been. The season may not be going according to plan for either of these AFC South powers, but that doesn’t make this any less of a monumental clash, filled with arguably more intrigue than it otherwise would be given the circumstances.

Baltimore is winless entering Week 4. Head coach John Harbaugh promises his Ravens “will come out of this the other way.” Even though they’ve started 2-1, the Steelers begin a four-to-six week stretch they’ll look to survive without Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is riding with Michael Vick and has been installed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The total is 44.

While it’s always fun to see Big Ben and Joe Flacco duel, Vick isn’t the average backup quarterback, although that’s exactly what he looked like last Sunday in St. Louis. He essentially got the save after Roethlisberger went down with an MCL sprain midway through the third quarter, but held the ball too long on a few occasions, took two sacks, and his 5-for-6 passing produced just 38 yards and three points. The Steelers become the fourth team Vick has started for in his controversial 13-year career.

Now 35 years old, Vick is not the dynamic runner he used to be. He was a 1,000-yard rusher in 2006. For further proof he’s no longer that type of player, he comes in averaging -1 yard per carry because he’s taken five kneel-downs to close out games. This older Vick is a pocket passer looking to get by on veteran savvy and that rocket arm he’s always had. He can still run and be elusive, but that’s not how he gets by anymore. In 10 games with the Jets last season, three of them starts, Vick failed to run for a TD for the first time as a pro. Although there’s been a smaller sample size, he takes sacks more and has struggled with fumble issues.

Of course, he now has more weapons than he ever was surrounded with in New York, which will make this latest chapter of his career all the more defining. Vick was signed by Pittsburgh after long-time backup Bruce Gradkowski injured his finger on Aug. 23 against Green Bay. By that point, Landry Jones had proven in preseason games that he wasn’t ready to be the primary backup, so they signed Vick, who was waiting on a phone call after training on his own. That’s late in the game to be looking for a backup, so picking up Vick was viewed as fortunate given the time frame, but it’s not like the Steelers ever wanted to break open this in case of emergency option.

The fact Vick is a veteran does make him more comfortable dealing with a short week of preparation, but he actually hasn’t started a Thursday night game since Sept. 2013, a 26-16 loss to Kansas City as member of the Eagles. He went 13-for-30 in that game, threw a pick-six and fumbled on Philly’s final play, so he doesn’t exactly have a great experience to look back on. Ironically, his only win as a starter last season came way back on Nov. 9 against the Steelers, which is his only game with multiple TD passes in his last 17 appearances.

He’ll be expected to end that run during this stint. Le’Veon Bell returned last week and joins D’Angelo Williams in taking pressure off Vick via the ground game. WR Antonio Brown, who leads all NFL receivers with 4.32 yards per route according to Pro Football Focus, might require a few new wrinkles in order to get the ball, but he’s going to touch it. Brown has had at least nine touches in his last 18 games, getting double-digit looks in 16 of those. Count on him being force fed the ball as Pittsburgh aims to stay as true to its identity as possible.

Vick throws a nice deep ball, so the Steelers are certain to utilize that threat. He found Martavis Bryant for a 63-yard bomb on his first play from scrimmage this preseason, so the expectation is that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will call at least a few shots downfield to emphasize that skill. Bryant won’t be a target though, since he’s serving out the final game of a four-game suspension. Markus Wheaton and Darrius Heyward-Bey will again be key receiving options.

If Vick is capable, the Ravens secondary has proven to be vulnerable through the air, struggling mightily the last two weeks. Baltimore is 29th of 32 in defensive passing yards allowed per game, while Pittsburgh has the fourth-best pass offense. After a strong start shutting down Peyton Manning, one can argue Baltimore is 0-3 because it failed to get a handle on QBs Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. Carr threw for 351 yards in a 37-33 Raiders win. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper caught a combined 16 passes for 220 of those yards for Oakland.

Last week, Bengals WR A.J. Green made Baltimore’s secondary his playground, finishing with 227 yards on his own. Raven defensive backs looked like turnstiles as Dalton wound up throwing for 383 yards and three scores. With standouts Terrell Suggs and Chris Canty sidelined, the Ravens have struggled to generate much pressure and guys are getting exposed in the back.

Flacco could do little against Denver’s defense in the opener, but he’s done his part to try and get Baltimore on track, throwing for 746 yards in the last two losses. He’s had identical two-touchdown, one-interception outputs despite little help from the running game, as Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro have each been banged up and unable to find much of a rhythm. A major piece of the offense, top draft pick Breshad Perriman, has been unable to make his debut due to a knee injury and will miss his fourth straight game. Despite his absence, Steve Smith Jr. has taken his game to another level and Baltimore has the eighth-ranked passing attack in the NFL.

Pittsburgh’s defense might be down its top young player, 2014 first-rounder Ryan Shazier, a dynamic linebacker who missed the Rams game with a shoulder injury and is considered doubtful here. This was expected to be his breakout season given how fast and free he was playing in preseason, finally looking healthy. Cornerback Cortez Allen is also questionable with a knee injury, but the Steelers have enough depth that he likely wouldn’t see much action if available.

Flacco is 7-7 in regular-season games in his career against his team’s arch rival, who he last saw in the Wild Card round on Jan. 3. The Ravens scored on six of nine possessions and sacked Roethlisberger five times, eliminating the Steelers at Heinz Field last season in getting a little revenge for consecutive road playoff losses in Pittsburgh earlier in Flacco’s career. Baltimore won in Pittsburgh three straight years from 2010-12, but has lost the last two regular-season meetings here, including 43-23 last November.

Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes in that win. The Steelers would probably be giddy at getting even one-third that output from Vick, since that would mean the offense would be acheiving balance. It's up to a banged-up Ravens defense to keep that from happening by aggressively getting after him and forcing turnovers. The prevailing theme on Thursday night centers around who can do more with less. Rivalries stop for no one. Not for T-Sizzle. Not even for Big Ben.

[StarDust Bum]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:25 PM EDT

101 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2 -03 -3 -05 / -3 EVEN / -3 -05 -3 EVEN -155
102 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 45.5o05 44.5 / 44 / 44o11 44 +135

PIT-QB-Ben Roethlisberger-OUT | TV: CBS, NFL, DTV: 212 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, NORTHEAST WIND 7-12. GAME TEMP 56, RH 71%


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NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Baltimore -3 1594 56.75% Pittsburgh +3 1215 43.25% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

8:25 PM Baltimore 44 998 46.18% Pittsburgh 44 1163 53.82% View View

--------------------------------

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 8:25 PM ET Baltimore -3 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Pittsburgh - Under 44 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/02/15 )

THURSDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/02/15 )


*****.........................0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS............1 - 0 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY................0 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT...................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 8 - 6 - 2
double play...................................20 - 11 - 1
triple play......................................10 - 7 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 1
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 17 - 9 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 2 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................1 - 0
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 2 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 1
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 1
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/04/15

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4

October 3, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3


Week 4

1) Arizona (573)

2) Carolina (542)

3) N.Y. Giants (483)

4) Jacksonville (403)

5) Cincinnati (4-2)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Baltimore (-3) 113 Pittsburgh (+3) 136

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) 331 Miami (+1.5) 232

Jacksonville (+9) 403 Indianapolis (-9) 75

Houston (+6) 338 Atlanta (-6) 373

Carolina (-3) 542 Tampa Bay (+3) 218

N.Y. Giants (+5) 483 Buffalo (-5) 249

Oakland (-3) 369 Chicago (+3) 215

Philadelphia (-3) 263 Washington (+3) 213

Kansas City (+4) 290 Cincinnati (-4) 402

Cleveland (+7.5) 222 San Diego (-7.5) 180

Green Bay (-8) 287 San Francisco (+8) 259

Minnesota (+6.5) 307 Denver (-6.5) 393

St. Louis (+7) 309 Arizona (-7) 573

Dallas (+3) 169 New Orleans (-3) 251

Detroit (+10) 168 Seattle (-10) 227

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4

October 2, 2015

Move over Seattle, Green Bay and New England. The betting public has a new favorite team joining the group that's routinely featured the most on parlays across every sports book in the Las Vegas valley.

Meet the Arizona Cardinals who have jumped out to an impressive 3-0 start, but have endeared themselves more with the betting public by covering all three of its games by an average score of 42-16.

What's not to like about them? They don't just win and cover, they crush teams, and the games go OVER the total. It's a parlay bettors' side-to-total delight and the two-teamer at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) is 3-0 with the Arizona-OVER combination this year.

The more bettors win on a team, the more they love them and they go for the ride as long as the roll goes. In Week 3 action, the Cardinals were the most one-sided wagered team of the week and were the major culprit of making the sports books losers on Sunday for the second time on the early season.

The question is whether or not Arizona's roll will last.

Are they for real?

Bettors are now having to lay larger numbers with Arizona as its rating has jumped about four points since the season began. In the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s early Week 4 lines last week the Cardinals were -4 for Sunday's home contest against the Rams. On Friday, the Cardinals were -7 (EVEN) after opening Sunday night at -6.

Is there too much of a rating adjustment on Arizona making their opponents more attractive for wise guys at the bet windows, or could the ratings still be low? One of the sharpest professional bettors in Las Vegas, Jeff Whitelaw, had a surprising take on the Cardinals and where they stack up among the rest of the teams.

"Before last week’s game, someone asked me who I thought the best teams in the NFL were and I said Green Bay, New England and then Arizona, and he was a little surprised by my answer. But you have to look at everything they're comprised of which is a great coach, solid defense, outstanding special teams play, an offensive line that is much better than expected and then a healthy Carson Palmer."

It's quite eye-opening to hear someone like Whitelaw mention Arizona before Seattle, a team the Westgate currently has as a six-point home favorites over the Cardinals for their Nov. 15 meeting in updated NFL Games of the Year numbers. It's an indication the Westgate currently has Seattle rated 2.5-points higher on a neutral field over Arizona.

"Right now, I think Arizona might be every bit as good as Seattle. The Seahawks have that pedigree and the Cardinals really haven't played anyone yet, but they're burying those teams that have been placed in front of them, and it's not like Arizona just snuck up on us. They were 11-5 last season with Palmer playing in only six games (6-0)."

Whitelaw says he expects Arizona's rating to climb even higher and there should still be value on them the next few weeks until its true rating levels off, which would then put them right up there the elite teams in the league.

In 1999, the Rams made a similar rapid rating jump early in the season as they won and covered its first five games by an average score of 38-10 behind back-up quarterback Kurt Warner. Back then, Whitelaw was able to sniff out a winner early on and not only took value in short weekly prices, but also made a few future wagers to win the Super Bowl.

"Yeah, I found them still at 100/1 odds around Week 4," he recalled. In the end, after the Rams won the Super Bowl, it was the worst beating Vegas sports books have taken in NFL future wagers as many had St. Louis at 250/1 odds and higher through the first three weeks. The Westgate dropped Arizona's Super Bowl odds from 14/1 last week down to 10/1 on Tuesday, which certainly isn't as exciting or inviting as prices on those Rams (Books still use 1999 as an example of why not to get too carried away with NFL future prices....never say 'That can't happen').

One area that still may present some value if Whitelaw is correct in his assessment of Arizona is the Westgate's odds to win the NFC West where Seattle is the 5/7 favorite (Bet $140 to win $100) and Arizona is 3/2 (Bet $100 to win $150). It's only three games into the season, and Palmer has proven to be brittle, but the Cardinals already have a two game lead over everyone in the division, including 1-2 Seattle.

Top Public Plays in Week 4

Here's a look at the top public games of the week -- as in the games featured most on parlays and if they come in like they did last week, the sports books will get buried:

Panthers
Falcons
Raiders (More of a bet against Bears)
Eagles
Broncos
Packers (Public hates 49ers just as much as they love Green Bay)
Cardinals

Not surprisingly, the combined ATS record among those teams through three weeks is 17-4 (81%), with Philly dragging down the percentage with its 1-2 ATS mark.

Does the ATS streak keep going for those teams, or does the rating increase catch up with them?

The books always come out ahead in the long run because of those adjustments and making the public lay inflated numbers, which usually makes the other sides attractive for wise guys. But so far the public is doing very well with its favorite teams.

Here's a look at all the line movement from the Westgate's early Week 4 lines posted last Wednesday and what's posted there as of Friday.

The movement is a combination of rating adjustments (air moves) based on Week 3 results and actual betting action.

NY Jets vs Miami (at London): Opened Dolphins -1, now Jets -1.5

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Opened Colts -7.5, now at -9 (Luck?)

Houston at Atlanta: Opened Falcons -3.5, now at -6.5

Carolina at Tampa Bay: Opened Panthers -2.5, now at -3 (-120)

NY Giants at Buffalo: Opened Bills -5.5, now down to -5

Oakland at Chicago: OFF the board last week (Cutler?); Opened Raiders -2.5, quickly up to -3

Philadelphia at Washington: Opened Eagles -2.5; -3 since Sunday night

Kansas City at Cincinnati: Opened Bengals -3 (EV), now -4

Cleveland at San Diego: Opened Chargers -6.5; bet up to -8 on Sunday, now -7.5

Green Bay at San Francisco: Opened Packers -6.5, now -8

Minnesota at Denver: Opened Broncos -5.5, now -7 (EV)

St. Louis at Arizona: Opened Cardinals -4, now -7 (EV)

Dallas at New Orleans: OFF the board last week and also this week due to Brees (?).
CG Technology books only shops in town with line posted – Saints -4, 46.5

Detroit at Seattle: OFF the board last week (Stafford?), now Seahwawks -10

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 Tip Sheet

October 3, 2015


Panthers (-3, 40) at Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina has played one of the weakest schedules in the league through three weeks, but the Panthers have taken care of their business by jumping out to a 3-0 start for the first time under Ron Rivera. The Panthers picked up their first divisional victory in a 27-22 triumph over the banged-up Saints, but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. Carolina erased an early 10-0 deficit, while winning their fifth straight game at Bank of America Stadium. Since 2012, the Panthers have struggled as a road favorite, posting a 3-6 ATS mark, even though they cashed in the season opener at Jacksonville.

The Buccaneers are winless against the AFC South at 0-2, but have won their lone divisional game against New Orleans as 9 ½-point underdogs in Week 2. Tampa Bay returns home where the Bucs have yet to win a game at Raymond James Stadium under Lovie Smith, going 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS since the start of 2014. To take it a step further, Tampa Bay has been limited to 17 points or less eight times in the last nine at home, including 14 points against Tennessee. The Bucs lost each of their two meetings with the Panthers last season, but Cam Newton sat out both games due to injury.

Texans at Falcons (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta has turned many heads by rallying in each of its first three games against the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys to start 3-0. The Falcons dug out of a 14-0 hole in a 39-28 triumph at Dallas, as Julio Jones hauled in 164 yards on 12 catches while finding the end zone twice. Now, the Falcons are listed as a substantial favorite for the first time this season, as Atlanta posted a dreadful 2-5 ATS record when laying points last season, while losing all four times to AFC foes in 2014.

The Texans finally broke through the win column in a 19-9 home victory over the Buccaneers to cash as six-point favorites. Houston continues its run against NFC South competition this Sunday, hoping to get starting running back Arian Foster back in the lineup after missing the first four games with a groin injury. Alfred Blue has filled in admirably, rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay, the fourth win in the last five tries at home. Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans own a profitable 5-3-1 ATS record on the road, but all three losses have come in the underdog role.

Chiefs at Bengals (-4, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati and Baltimore played their typical back-and-forth game last Sunday, as the Bengals held off the Ravens, 28-24 to cover as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The two teams combined for 31 fourth quarter points after the Bengals entered the final period up 14-7, hitting the ‘over’ of 45 ½, as Cincinnati has outgained all three opponents so far. The Bengals have been nearly automatic at Paul Brown Stadium since the start of 2013, going 14-3-1 SU and 13-4-1 ATS, including the Week 2 victory over the Chargers.

Kansas City plays with a short week following a 38-28 setback at Green Bay on Monday night to drop to 1-2. The Chiefs cruised past the Texans in the opener, but melted down late against Denver at home in Week 2 before getting diced up at Lambeau Field to start 1-2 for the second straight season. Under Andy Reid, Kansas City has compiled a 6-4 ATS record as a road underdog, including a 4-2 ATS mark against AFC foes.

Packers (-8 ½, 48) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay has started 3-0 for only the third time in the Mike McCarthy regime, as the Packers leave the Midwest for the first time this season. Following an opening week triumph at Chicago, Green Bay knocked off Seattle and Kansas City at home, while covering each time in the favorite role. The Packers own an incredible 12-4 ATS record in their last 16 games as a favorite since Week 4 of last season, including a 4-2 ATS mark as away chalk. Since 2012, Green Bay hasn’t had much luck against San Francisco, losing four straight times, while making its first trip to Levi’s Stadium.

The 49ers are happy to be home after suffering a pair of blowout losses at Pittsburgh and Arizona the last two weeks. Colin Kaepernick threw four interceptions in last week’s 47-7 beatdown to the Cardinals, including tossing a pair of pick-sixes in the first quarter, marking San Francisco’s fourth straight road loss since last December. San Francisco wasn’t listed as a home underdog in its inaugural campaign at Levi’s Stadium, but is already a ‘dog for the second time this season, beating Minnesota in the season opener, 20-3.

Vikings at Broncos (-7, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

Minnesota has bounced back nicely since its disastrous opening loss to San Francisco, as the Vikings are fresh off home victories over the Lions and Chargers. The defense allowed a total of 30 points the last two weeks, which includes a late San Diego touchdown in the final minute of last week’s 31-14 triumph as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Vikings are listed as a road underdog for the first time this season, as Mike Zimmer’s club has covered four of their last five in this role, with three losses by two points or less.

The Broncos’ offense didn’t look impressive in Week 1, but the defense carried Denver to a home victory over Baltimore. Peyton Manning woke up in the last two road games, throwing five touchdown passes in wins over the Chiefs and Lions, while putting up a season-high 324 yards in last Sunday night’s 24-12 win at Detroit. Since Manning joined the Broncos in 2012, Denver has compiled a remarkable 23-2 SU and 16-8-1 ATS record at Sports Authority Field, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark against NFC opponents.

Rams at Cardinals (-7, 42 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Arizona is proving that last season’s 9-1 start and playoff appearance isn’t a fluke, as Bruce Arians’ club has looked impressive in three victories. The Cardinals are the highest-scoring team in the league through three weeks after putting up 126 points, including a pair of 40+ spots against the Bears and 49ers. Arizona has turned into one of the most profitable teams in the league since 2014, covering 14 of 19 regular season games, while going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS the last two seasons against St. Louis.

The Rams shocked the Seahawks in the season opener, but have put up a pair of stinkers on offense the last two weeks, combining for 16 points in losses to the Redskins and Steelers. The running game has averaged 69 yards the last two weeks, which doesn’t bode well against an Arizona rush defense that ranks ninth in the league, yielding 88.7 yards a game. St. Louis hasn’t fared well on the road inside the division the last two seasons, posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record, with the lone victory coming at San Francisco in 2014 as 10-point underdogs, 13-10.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 4

October 3, 2015


The ‘over’ produced a 10-6 record last week and a few games caught some fortunate late-game bursts to help that production. I’d like to extend early apologies to those bettors who played the Cincinnati-Baltimore ‘under’ (45) and were probably smiling late in the fourth quarter but that was before the two teams combined for 28 points in a less than five minutes. If you bet totals regularly, you’ve certainly seen that movie before.

It’s fair to say that five of the six ‘under’ winners were never in doubt and the lone outcome that deserves any whining goes to the Eagles-Jets ‘under’ (47). Philadelphia scored 24 points in the first half and bettors only needed 17 points from both teams in the final 30 minutes to cash. Unfortunately for some, the Eagles were blanked and the Jets only mustered up 10 points.

Through three weeks, the ‘over’ is 26-21-1.

Overseas Action

The NFL International Series returns to Wembley Stadium this Sunday as the Dolphins and Jets square off in an AFC East battle. This will be the 12th game of the series played at London and first of three scheduled this season.

NFL INTERNATIONAL SERIES HISTORY (2007-2014)

Year Matchup Total Result

2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions 22 Atlanta Falcons 21 Under 45
2014 Dallas Cowboys 31 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Over 45

Looking above, you can see the ‘over’ has gone 6-5 in the first 11 but make a note that the Lions-Falcons game played extra early last season at 9:30 a.m. ET, the same time slated for this week’s game.

Make a note that Miami started last season 1-2 before heading to London and blasting Oakland 38-14 in Week 4.

Dare we say déjà vu this Sunday?

I’m not buying it and make a note that the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five and 7-3 in the last 10 between these teams.

Early Trends

It’s very early in the season but we’re starting to see some angles develop for certain clubs. I jotted down some quick notes on what’s helping the cause.

Over 3-0

Arizona - Only six of 126 points scored have come from FGs
Tennessee - Great Red Zone numbers – 77%
Cleveland – Travis Benjamin has accounted for 5 of 7 TDs, single handily winning ‘over’ bets
Oakland – QB Carr is more capable and the defense is dead last (414.7 YPG)
Kansas City – Defense hasn’t been as sharp, but Chiefs could be 2-1 to ‘under’

Under 3-0

Philadelphia - No rushing TDs surrendered and holding teams to FGs (7) rather than TDS (5)
Minnesota - Only allowed 9 scores in three games

System on Target

Monday’s haven’t treated this system well in the past but the Chiefs-Packers game was never in doubt and the ‘over’ cashed easily in Week 3.

For Week 4, the Thursday Night Total system heads to Buffalo since the Giants played at home last Thursday. New VI users reading Total Talk for the first time can check out the explanation in previous installments.

For this matchup, I’m a little hesitant to back the Giants-Bills ‘over’ because both clubs are nursing key injuries on offense and the weather could be dicey due to the Hurricane coming up the East Coast.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact this angle is connecting at an 82% clip (27-6-1) dating back to 2013.

NFC vs. AFC

In the 2013 season, bettors saw the ‘over’ go 50-15 (77%) in non-conference games, a number I highly doubt will ever see again. Last season, those numbers tempered off and were practically even. After three weeks this season, the ‘under’ has gone 8-4 (67%) in the first 12 AFC-NFC matchups and that includes a 5-1 ‘under’ mark in Week 3.

We have four more AFC-NFC matchups to watch this week.

Houston at Atlanta: Bill O’Brien’s squad have scored exactly 17 points in their last three road games against NFC squads, which includes a 24-17 loss to Carolina in Week 2 this season. The Falcons went 3-1 to the ‘under’ last season versus the AFC but were 4-0 in 2013.

Oakland at Chicago: Bears are 6-2 to the ‘over’ in their last eight versus the AFC and the defense is allowing 26.7 PPG during this span. The Raiders have struggled defensively on the road vs. NFC teams, allowing 52, 30, 31 and 24 in their last four, all ‘over’ winners.

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo: New York’s defense has allowed 27.3 PPG in its last eight non-conference games, which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2. The Bills were a clear-cut ‘under’ team last season (13-3) and saw all four against the AFC cash to the low side.

Minnesota at Denver: The Vikings had their most productive efforts against the AFC last season, scoring 30-plus in three of the four games. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos have scored 34, 31, 52, 45, 41 and 42 points in six games vs. NFC squads, which has easily produced a 6-0 ‘over’ mark.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s result between the Ravens and Steelers, the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the first 11 primetime games of the season. Monday’s outcome in the Chiefs-Packers game is still the only clear-cut ‘over’ we’ve seen this season and something tells me we’re not looking at shootouts in the below games.

Dallas at New Orleans: This game opened 47 and jumped up to 47 ½ after Saints QB Drew Brees was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday. Without or without him, the Saints aren’t the juggernaut they once were at home and I hope you’re not chasing Saints-Over on Sunday. Dallas put up 28 first-half points last week against Atlanta with backups but were blanked in the final 30 minutes. Which team shows up Sunday? I’m going to lean to the latter and I also think the Saints will try to grind out a win against a defense that allowed 158 rushing yards last week.

Detroit at Seattle: I think this total should be a tad lower considering Detroit’s offense isn’t what it once was and scoring at this venue has been next to impossible in recent seasons. The Seahawks blanked the Bears last week and they’re ranked third in total yards (286.3) and 10th in points per game (20.3). Offensively, Seattle is lacking consistency right now and its eye opening when you see a team have more field goals (8) than offensive touchdowns (3), no rushing either. Plus, Seattle’s scoring average (24.7) has been helped with three defensive and special team scores too. If you like to use trends in your handicapping, Seattle is on a 4-2 run to the ‘under’ at home while Detroit is 8-2 to the ‘under’ on the road going back to start of last season.

Fearless Predictions

Outside of leaning to the Atlanta-Dallas ‘under’ in Week 3, it was a solid weekend and I was fortunate to double-up on the Titans and produce a decent profit ($190). After three weeks, the bankroll is in good shape ($360) but it’s still early. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Minnesota-Denver 42

Best Under: Cleveland-San Diego 45

Best Team Total: Over Jaguars 18 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 54 Cleveland-San Diego
Over 36 N.Y. Giants-Buffalo
Under 55 Green Bay-San Francisco

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Gridiron Angles - Week 4

October 3, 2015


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since December 14, 2008 after a road loss in which a receiver had more than 75 receiving yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Jets are 0-12-1 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since December 2008 off a loss as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Eli Manning is 8-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since October 2013 after a home game where he threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The 49ers are 0-11 OU (-9.9 ppg) since Oct 29, 2000 as a 7+ dog the week after a 10+ ATS loss.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bills are 15-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since October 2004 as a favorite of more than three points after a game where they allowed fewer points than expected.

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[B]NFL injury report on Sunday games

CAROLINA PANTHERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: WR Jerricho Cotchery (ankle), LB Luke Kuechly (concussion), G Amini Silatolu (ankle), T Daryl Williams (knee)

--Probable: WR Corey Brown (illness), LB Thomas Davis (chest), DT Dwan Edwards (not injury related), CB Josh Norman (not injury related), RB Jonathan Stewart (tibia), CB Charles Tillman (not injury related), RB Mike Tolbert (groin)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Doubtful: CB Johnthan Banks (knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder), C Evan Smith (ankle), TE Luke Stocker (hip)

--Questionable: DE George Johnson (neck), RB Doug Martin (knee, quadriceps), DT Gerald McCoy (shoulder), T Donovan Smith (knee), S Major Wright (abdomen)

--Probable: S Chris Conte (hip)

CLEVELAND BROWNS at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: DE Desmond Bryant (shoulder), LB Craig Robertson (ankle), LB Scott Solomon (ankle), RB Robert Turbin (ankle), CB K'Waun Williams (concussion)

--Questionable: RB Shaun Draughn (back), S Tashaun Gipson (groin)

--Probable: WR Travis Benjamin (ribs), LB Karlos Dansby (ankle), CB Justin Gilbert (hamstring), CB Joe Haden (ribs, finger), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow), QB Josh McCown (right hand), T Mitchell Schwartz (thumb)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: S Jahleel Addae (ankle), G Orlando Franklin (ankle), WR Jacoby Jones (ankle), CB Craig Mager (hamstring), LB Tourek Williams (foot)

--Doubtful: T King Dunlap (concussion), C Chris Watt (groin)

--Questionable: G D.J. Fluker (ankle, chest), TE Ladarius Green (concussion), CB Jason Verrett (foot)

--Probable: CB Brandon Flowers (knee), T Chris Hairston (ankle, knee)

GREEN BAY PACKERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Out: T Bryan Bulaga (knee)

--Doubtful: CB Demetri Goodson (hamstring), LB Jake Ryan (hamstring)

--Questionable: WR Davante Adams (ankle), S Morgan Burnett (calf)

--Probable: WR Randall Cobb (shoulder), DE Datone Jones (head), RB Eddie Lacy (ankle), LB Mike Neal (groin), S Sean Richardson (ankle), RB Aaron Ripkowski (shoulder)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Doubtful: TE Vernon Davis (knee)

--Probable: CB Kenneth Acker (back), G Alex Boone (shoulder), LB Navorro Bowman (not injury related), LB Ahmad Brooks (shoulder), RB Reggie Bush (calf), WR Bruce Ellington (ankle), S L.J. McCray (hip), TE Vance McDonald (knee), S Eric Reid (hip)

HOUSTON TEXANS at ATLANTA FALCONS

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: S Lonnie Ballentine (knee), LB Akeem Dent (hamstring), RB Jonathan Grimes (knee)

--Questionable: T Duane Brown (hand), RB Arian Foster (groin)

--Probable: G Brandon Brooks (ankle), LB Jadeveon Clowney (shoulder), CB Johnathan Joseph (hip), QB Ryan Mallett (chest), T Derek Newton (ankle), S Eddie Pleasant (thigh), G Xavier Su'a-Filo (calf)

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Out: S Ricardo Allen (knee), RB Tevin Coleman (ribs), WR Devin Hester (toe), TE Jacob Tamme (concussion)

--Probable: RB Devonta Freeman (toe), WR Julio Jones (toe, hamstring), LB Brooks Reed (groin)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: WR Marqise Lee (hamstring), G Brandon Linder (shoulder), DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee), RB Denard Robinson (knee), TE Julius Thomas (hand)

--Doubtful: S Sergio Brown (calf)

--Probable: G Zane Beadles (finger), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), S Josh Evans (knee), CB Davon House (lower leg), WR Allen Hurns (thigh), DT Roy Miller (knee), G Tyler Shatley (thumb)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: CB Gregory Toler (neck), RB Tyler Varga (concussion)

--Questionable: TE Dwayne Allen (ankle), QB Andrew Luck (right shoulder)

--Probable: CB Darius Butler (hip), LB Trent Cole (knee), CB Vontae Davis (not injury related, ankle), WR T.Y. Hilton (knee), LB D'Qwell Jackson (not injury related), WR Andre Johnson (not injury related), LB Robert Mathis (not injury related), RB Josh Robinson (back), G Hugh Thornton (knee), LB Bjoern Werner (not injury related)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Questionable: WR Albert Wilson (shoulder)

--Probable: WR Jason Avant (knee), WR Chris Conley (shoulder), CB Jamell Fleming (hip), LB Joshua Mauga (Achilles)

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Doubtful: S George Iloka (ankle)

--Questionable: DT Marcus Hardison (knee), CB Adam Jones (elbow)

--Probable: CB Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder), DT Pat Sims (hip), T Andre Smith (hip)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at DENVER BRONCOS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: WR Charles Johnson (rib), CB Jabari Price (shoulder), S Andrew Sendejo (knee), DE Justin Trattou (foot)

--Questionable: LB Audie Cole (ankle), WR Jarius Wright (hand)

--Probable: CB Xavier Rhodes (concussion, neck)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: T Ty Sambrailo (shoulder)

--Questionable: TE James Casey (knee), LB Todd Davis (ankle)

--Probable: DE Kenny Anunike (knee), CB Omar Bolden (foot), TE Owen Daniels (not injury related), QB Peyton Manning (not injury related), G Evan Mathis (hamstring), RB Juwan Thompson (neck), G Louis Vasquez (knee), DE Vance Walker (elbow), CB Kayvon Webster (ankle)

NEW YORK GIANTS at BUFFALO BILLS

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: DE Robert Ayers (hamstring), WR Victor Cruz (calf), TE Jerome Cunningham (knee), DT Markus Kuhn (knee)

--Questionable: TE Daniel Fells (ankle), T Ereck Flowers (ankle)

--Probable: RB Orleans Darkwa (knee), DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (foot), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (concussion)

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: WR Marquise Goodwin (ribs), RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), G John Miller (groin), WR Sammy Watkins (calf), S Aaron Williams (neck)

--Probable: LB Preston Brown (hamstring), K Dan Carpenter (left knee), WR Percy Harvin (hip), QB Tyrod Taylor (ankle)

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: G Willie Colon (knee), TE Jeff Cumberland (concussion), WR Chris Owusu (knee), LB Trevor Reilly (finger), CB Darrin Walls (hamstring)

--Questionable: WR Eric Decker (knee)

--Probable: DT T.J. Barnes (ankle), DE Stephen Bowen (knee), G James Carpenter (back), LB Quinton Coples (elbow), CB Antonio Cromartie (hip), LB David Harris (finger), RB Chris Ivory (quadriceps), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring), WR Devin Smith (ribs)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: TE Dion Sims (concussion)

--Doubtful: T Branden Albert (hamstring)

--Questionable: TE Jordan Cameron (groin), RB Jonas Gray (calf)

--Probable: DT Earl Mitchell (back)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at CHICAGO BEARS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: DE Benson Mayowa (knee), CB Keith McGill (foot), DE C.J. Wilson (calf)

--Questionable: LB Ben Heeney (hamstring), RB Taiwan Jones (foot), S Charles Woodson (shoulder)

--Probable: DT Justin Ellis (ankle), DE Khalil Mack (hip), RB Jamize Olawale (ankle), DE Justin Tuck (knee)

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: T Jermon Bushrod (concussion, shoulder)

--Questionable: CB Alan Ball (groin), QB Jay Cutler (hamstring), DE Ego Ferguson (knee), WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring), P Pat O'Donnell (right knee), DT Jay Ratliff (ankle), DE Will Sutton (elbow)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at WASHINGTON REDSKINS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: LB Kiko Alonso (knee), DE Taylor Hart (shoulder), DE Cedric Thornton (hand)

--Questionable: LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring), S Chris Maragos (quadriceps), RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring), T Jason Peters (quadriceps)

--Probable: TE Trey Burton (shoulder), WR Riley Cooper (knee), WR Josh Huff (hamstring)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: CB DeAngelo Hall (toe), WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring), LB Perry Riley (calf)

--Questionable: CB Chris Culliver (knee), DE Kedric Golston (hand), C Josh LeRibeus (calf)

--Probable: C Kory Lichtensteiger (finger), QB Colt McCoy (foot), T Morgan Moses (knee, elbow)

ST. LOUIS RAMS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Out: S Maurice Alexander (groin), DE Eugene Sims (knee)

--Doubtful: RB Chase Reynolds (knee)

--Probable: WR Kenny Britt (shoulder), RB Benny Cunningham (knee), LB James Laurinaitis (not injury related)

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: WR J.J. Nelson (shoulder)

--Questionable: RB Andre Ellington (knee)

--Probable: WR John Brown (shoulder), G Mike Iupati (knee), LB Alex Okafor (shoulder), LB LaMarr Woodley (quadriceps)

DALLAS COWBOYS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS on Sunday night

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: WR Dez Bryant (foot), DE Randy Gregory (ankle)

--Probable: CB Brandon Carr (not injury related), LB Andrew Gachkar (foot), G Ronald Leary (groin), DE Jeremy Mincey (concussion), DE Ryan Russell (groin), LB Kyle Wilber (hamstring), TE Jason Witten (ankle, knee)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: G Jahri Evans (knee)

--Probable: QB Drew Brees (right shoulder), S Jairus Byrd (knee), WR Brandin Cooks (ankle), LB Dannell Ellerbe (toe), DE Cameron Jordan (back), CB Keenan Lewis (hip)[/B

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Betting the faves and Overs has been the play in NFL London games

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 of the NFL schedule and though the line is currently Jets -1.5, bettors should make note as the fave has covered the spread in seven of the last nine games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the ninth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England and the Jets-Dolphins matchup will be the first of a trio of games played in the UK. The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars will play there in Week 7, while the Detroit Lions will face the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley in Week 8.

There are a couple of trends through the first 11 games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Jets-Dolphins game this weekend.

The favorite covered the spread in two of the three games in England last season and, as previously mentioned, is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games. Faves are 7-4 ATS in all 11 England games.

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Jags 31-17, covering as 7.5-point faves, while the Dolphins spanked the Oakland Raiders 38-14 as 4-point faves. The Lions, who were 3.5-point faves against the Atlanta Falcons, won SU 22-21, but obviously missed covering the spread.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 6-5 in the 11 games and the over has cashed in five of the past six games across the Atlantic.

The total in this weekend's matchup opened is currently 42.5.

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Andrew Luck will not play versus Jaguars Sunday, Colts now -3.5

According to a tweet from ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck will not play versus the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon.

This means that the Colts will look to 40-yeard-old Matt Hasslebeck versus their AFC South rivals.

The Colts began the day as 9.5-point favorites at online shop TopBet.eu, but that has been adjusted to -3.5.

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Chargers down to 5.5-point home faves

The San Diego Chargers entered the day as 6.5 or 7-point home favorites at most shops but that has come down to -5.5 with kickoff later Sunday afternoon.

The Chargers have dropped back-to-back games straight up and against the spread heading into this one, while the Browns have split their last two SU and ATS.

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Over trending in Eagles-Redskins matchups

The Over has gone 4-1 in the previous five meetings between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins, including a pair of cashed over tickets in both meetings last season.

The teams had totals of 50 and 50.5 last season, finishing with combined scorelines of 51 and 71 points respectively.

The NFC East rivlas will meet up at FedEx Field Sunday afternoon and the total, which opened at 47.5, has since dropped to 44.