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**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 01:52 AM

Bettors win big in Week 3

September 28, 2015

There were eight teams that were 2-0 against the spread coming into Week 3 and the betting public rode four of them strong in parlays coupled with two of their favorite weekly staples which made Sunday's NFL action a disaster for Las Vegas sports books.

"We lost every afternoon game after doing okay in the morning, but bettors cashed on the five to six games they really keyed on collectively," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood just prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game after tabulating the damage from the first 13 games.

"The games we did okay on were the games that didn't attract as much attention." The Patriots to the OVER was a very popular combination in the morning and the Falcons coming back against Dallas made almost everyone in the book happy; the Steelers were also good for the players, and then in the afternoon, the combination of the Seahawks, Cardinals and Bills all covering kicked in all the big parlay payouts. The Bills were a game that both the sharps and public were on the same side."

The Falcons, Steelers and Cardinals are all 3-0 ATS now and the final piece to Sunday's equation was the Broncos in the Sunday night game at Detroit where the public had no problem laying 3-points with Denver, who had won and covered its first two games while the Lions had lost and failed to cover both their games.

Rood said they needed the Lions to somewhat salvage something on the day and had a double whammy in the evening with the late baseball game as bettors rode the Pirates eight-game winning streak.

The Cubs’ Jake Arrieta would come through for the books in a 4-0 Chicago Cubs win, but the risk in that game paled in comparison to the Broncos, which was ultimately the final nail in the coffin for the books as Denver's defense led the way in a 24-12 win.

The books can sometimes escape a week when three common teams come in for the public, but when five- team parlays come cashing in at 20/1 odds and six-teamers at 40/1 are a common occurrence, there is no way the house can recoup those losses.

Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick simply described the day as "bad" citing the same teams Rood and the rest of the books had difficulties with on the day. "The Falcons, Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks and Bills filled up the players bank accounts."

If there was a positive side for the books, it came with the Colts failing to cover (-3) at Tennessee in a wild 35-33 win. Despite the Colts failing to win or cover its first two games, bettors liked them to bounce back against the Titans and were taken for a roller coaster ride of emotions. Down 27-14 heading into the fourth quarter, the Colts reeled off 21 unanswered points to take a 35-27 lead and what looked to be a gift cover. But the Titans would quickly storm back and score a touchdown with 47 seconds remaining.

The books were rooting for a failed two-point conversion attempt, while bettors wanted the conversion made to send it into overtime with hopes of at least getting a Colts push with a field goal or a cover with a touchdown. But the two-point conversion failed; two-point win for the Colts and the one saving grace from the books calling it a “Sunday Bloody Sunday.”

It's kind of surprising to see such a rough day for the books when the favorites only went 6-8 ATS on the day, but it was in those winning favorites that they rode. They also loved the Steelers who were pushed from the favorite to underdog by kickoff by larger money taking the Rams. The Falcons were getting +1 at Dallas with a Cowboys squad playing without Tony Romo, and then there was the Bills, who they loved along with the wise guys, which were pushed from a three-point dog to pick 'em by kickoff.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all so far this season has been the Cardinals. Last season they started out 9-1, but this year’s 3-0 start is impressive just because they're averaging 42 points a game. They have won and covered all three of its games easily while sending all three games OVER the total, a combination the public loves to ride, and they were all over it on Sunday as the most one-side bet game of the day.

Next up for Arizona is a home date Sunday against the Rams where the Cardinals are 6 ½-point favorites, and you can believe the books will all be Rams fans next week as bettors will be coming heavily armed with cash from Week 3 winnings to the window to load up again on them.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 01:56 AM

NFL Week 4 Essentials

September 28, 2015

Hey, look, it’s a new month. If your team is on the wrong side of .500, it’s officially time to panic. In honor of the late, great Yogi Berra, this is your reminder that “it gets late early out there.” Here's what's in store in Week 4:

Thursday, Oct. 1

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

The 0-3 Ravens would’ve really been in trouble if Ben Roethlisberger hadn’t sprained his MCL in St. Louis, but they’re still in for quite the challenge as they look to break through with a much-needed win against backup Michael Vick. As long as he can throw the deep ball and keep plays alive with his feet, the Steelers still pose a significant threat offensively given their arsenal of weapons. The Ravens face a must-win for the second week in a row, so yep, there’s pressure. No team has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. Only five have survived 0-3 starts in reaching the postseason, but it doesn’t sound like Baltimore will have the services of rookie WR Breshad Perriman, who re-aggravated a knee injury in warmups on Sunday.

Sunday, Oct. 4

N.Y. Jets vs Miami:

This one’s in London, chaps and babes. Why is beyond me, since divisional games should not be taken overseas, but the setting provides an interesting variable for two teams coming off losses. The Dolphins haven’t recorded a sack since Week 1, while the Jets come off a home loss to desperate Philadelphia that was marred by mental miscues. RB Chris Ivory should return to the backfield after sitting against the Eagles with a quad injury. New York missed his physical presence and failed to take much pressure off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so expect an emphasis to be placed on getting the ground game going against Miami.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:

The Colts survived in Tennessee thanks to a failed two-point conversion, but gave up 33 points and are now surrendering 26.7 points through their first three weeks. They haven’t covered yet, so keep that in mind if you’re thinking of laying the lumber. The Jags were winless on the road last season and were destroyed by New England last week, but it should be noted that they covered or pushed in four of their last five road games last season. QB Blake Bortles threw for a pair of scores against the Patriots, which is an improvement since he passed for just four touchdowns against six interceptions in away games as a rookie.

Houston at Atlanta:

Star lineman J.J. Watt and the defense won a game for the Texans, but the running game re-emerging against Tampa Bay provided the biggest boost. Arian Foster may return here, but even if he doesn’t, Alfred Blue has gotten himself going enough to ensure he’ll get some carries. The run game will be key on the road as Houston tries to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands as much as possible. Julio Jones may very well be the NFL MVP through the first three weeks, outperforming even Tom Brady in terms of overall impact. The Falcons are 3-0 solely because the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys couldn’t find a way to cover him. Collectively, Houston’s secondary will be the best he’s faced this season.

Carolina at Tampa Bay:

The Panthers have survived the preseason injury to Kelvin Benjamin and a nasty concussion to the team’s best player, linebacker Luke Kuechly. Odds are good he’ll get through protocol to participate in this one, which is bad news for Jameis Winston. The No. 1 pick didn’t respond well to missing tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and had a brutal time in the home opener against Tennessee. It will be interesting to see how he handles facing elite defenses in back-to-back weeks.

N.Y. Giants at Buffalo:

Veteran Eli Manning finished off Washington with a heave to Rueben Randle and will have Victor Cruz back in the fold for this trip to upstate New York. The Giants will be more rested having played on Thursday, not to mention as healthy as they’ve been all season since left tackle Ereck Flowers will be back and MLB Jon Beason has returned. The Bills won their first road game under Rex Ryan by routing Miami and will look to make Manning as uncomfortable as possible. Offensively, they may have to make due without LeSean McCoy, whose hamstring issue isn’t healing. He’ll need to sit a game if he wants to get it healthier since rest is the only way to heal a bad hammy.

Oakland at Chicago:

QB Derek Carr led the Raiders to their first road victory since 2013, ending the 11-game losing streak by throwing for 314 yards and two touchdown, protecting the ball brilliantly against a sturdy defense. He’s starting to separate himself from the rest of the 2014 QB class with his poise and precision, but he it’s also worth pointing out that thanks to rookie Amari Cooper, he’s got the best receiving target to work with. Oakland hasn’t won consecutive road games since November of 2011 and hasn’t won three straight since that same month. QB Jay Cutler is likely out again, but backup Jimmy Clausen should have Alshon Jeffery back as the Bears’ top target after he missed the 26-0 loss to Seattle.

Philadelphia at Washington:

The slumping Sam Bradford had another poor performance in the win at the Jets, so concern is mounting since he’s really only had one above-average half all season. DeMarco Murray may be back so the Eagles can further emphasize their run game in what should be a grinder of a game against the rival ‘Skins. Coming off a brutal effort on Thursday night, Kirk Cousins will also be under pressure to fight off boo birds and keep a firm hold on his newly-earned starting gig. It would help to get DeSean Jackson back from his hamstring injury, but a decision there isn’t likely until later in the week. You know Jackson would love to face Chip Kelly and his former team if he’s healthy enough to do so.

Kansas City at Cincinnati:

Coming off a Monday night game in Green Bay, the Chiefs have to go right back out on the road to face the undefeated Bengals. A.J. Green was unstoppable in leading his team past the Bengals but will definitely be facing the best secondary he’s seen to date as Cincinnati continues a stretch that will see them also host Seattle and visit Buffalo and Pittsburgh after winning in Baltimore on Sunday. If the Bengals manage to survive this in style, you’ll undoubtedly see their Super Bowl odds decrease.

Cleveland at San Diego:

After losing at home to the Raiders, you’ll undoubtedly hear more talk that Johnny Manziel should be out there leading the Browns given his youth and the first-round pick his team invested, so Cleveland will take that baggage out to Cali. Head coach Mike Pettine has stressed that Josh McCown gives his team the best chance to win, so don’t expect a change despite news that McCown has a banged-up hand. The Chargers have their own issues, namely an offensive line that simply can’t get healthy, which has led to uneven offense. QB Philip Rivers will have to hope that top target Keenan Allen can consistently win against Joe Haden.

Green Bay at San Francisco:

QB Colin Kaepernick’s Sunday couldn’t have started worse, so his ability to get the 49ers off confidently and without turnovers is going to be crucial given Aaron Rodgers’ presence on the other side. The Packers have found ways to move the ball without Jordy Nelson and despite a banged up offensive line, which is a testament to Rodgers’ brilliance. The Chico, Ca. native has lost four consecutive games against the 49ers and has never beaten them on the road. Green Bay’s last win in San Francisco, way back in 2006, was engineered by Brett Favre.

Minnesota at Denver:

If you were to believe a lot of the chatter, Denver is undefeated in spite of Peyton Manning. While the driving force of this year’s team is undoubtedly the defense, there’s no question that Manning has grown into his new role and has delivered when it’s mattered most. Odds are he’ll have to come through down the stretch once again given how well the Vikings have played over the last two weeks, but Teddy Bridgewater has to prove he can be the same quarterback on the road that he’s been the past few games in Minneapolis.

St. Louis at Arizona:

The Rams have scored 16 points in the last eight quarters and face a defense that has feasted on mistakes over the first few weeks. This road game will make the difference between improving to 2-0 in NFC West play and keeping pace with these Cardinals and the Seahawks or a 1-3 start that would dig St. Louis a significant hole. Bruce Arians has his team undefeated and attacking on both sides of the ball. Arizona last started 4-0 in 2012, something it hadn’t done since 1974 but proved to be a false alarm since it finished 5-11. Last year’s team lost in this spot after a 3-0 start, but ended up moving to 9-1 before its injury-related demise. Carson Palmer has thrown nine TD passes and just two interceptions.

Dallas at New Orleans:

While it's true Brandon Weeden couldn’t come through down the stretch against the Falcons, but he wasn’t the reason the Cowboys lost their first game of the season. Considering he opened his first start since Week 8 of last season with nine straight completions, the Cowboys have to feel confident he can take his act on the road and give the team a chance to win. It sounds like Drew Brees will try and play after missing the loss at Carolina with a shoulder injury, but it’s likely to be a game-time decision whether he can actually make it back. Josh McCown did a decent job against the Panthers and wasn’t the reason the Saints went down either.

Monday, Oct. 5

Detroit at Seattle:

The Seahawks flexed their muscles at home after a rough start, so they’ll have the most dominant homefield advantage in the NFL in play as Detroit comes looking for their first win. The Legion of Boom is back intact now that Kam Chancellor has returned, but considering they just saw the Jeffery-less Bears, facing off against Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and the Lions other weapons will offer a much stiffer challenge. The Lions have to hope that Matthew Stafford can get a little healthier this week in order to have a realistic chance at this upset. The guy that went out there against Denver isn’t beating the Seahawks in their house on a Monday night.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 12:47 PM

Betting Recap - Week 3

September 29, 2015

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 3 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 7-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-6

The largest underdog to win straight up
Raiders (+3.5, ML +160) at Browns, 27-20

The largest favorite to cover
Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Bears, 26-0

Touchdown or more? No problem

-- After a ton of upsets in Week 2, order was restored in Week 3. Four teams were favored by a touchdown or more in Week 3, and not only did all four teams win but they went 3-1 against the number. The Seattle Seahawks (-16.5) were the biggest favorite on the board, and they took care of business by a 26-0 score over the hapless Chicago Bears. The New England Patriots (-14) powered past the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 51-17 score, while the Arizona Cardinals (-7) clubbed the San Francisco 49ers by a 47-7 count. The Carolina Panthers kept their record unblemished, but backup QB Luke McCown and the New Orleans Saints were able to grab the backdoor cover (see bad beats below).
Divisional business

-- There were six divisional games in Week 3, and home and road teams split 3-3 SU/ATS. The favorite went 4-2 SU with the underdog going 4-2 ATS.
The autumn wind is a high-scoring pirate...

-- The Oakland Raiders moved to 2-1 SU/ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in each of their three games to date. The Raiders are averaging 25.7 points per game while yielding 28.7 points per game. The Raiders have the best record of all three California teams, too, as the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers are each 1-2 SU/ATS.

Total Recall

-- It was a high-scoring weekend of football, as the 'over' hit in 10 of 16 games, including two of the three primetime games. The game with the highest total (49) was the Jaguars-Patriots battle, and New England took care of the over themselves. The second-highest total on the board was the Steelers-Rams (48.5) games, and that game had the lowest production of all games with just 18 total points. The total might have been done before it started when Ben Roethlisberger (knee) left early in the first half with a sprained medial collateral ligament.

-- The game with the lowest total, the Buccaneers-Texans (41) game went well under with 28 total points.

-- Is there a new 'McCown' trend? In games with a quarterback named McCown as the starter, the 'over' is 2-0. Luke McCown started for the New Orleans Saints, and their game at Carolina hit the over, while Josh McCown started for the Cleveland Browns, and their game against Oakland also went over. Another trend is that they both lost.

-- For the first time this season the over edged out the under in primetime games, 2-1. In four primetime games in Week 1, the under went 3-1, and the under was 2-1 in Week 2. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013. So far this season the over is 4-6 (40%) through 10 games.

Injury Report

-- The biggest injury of Week 3 was Roethlisberger (knee), who is expected to be sidelined anywhere from four to six weeks. Michael Vick will take over the reins of Pittsburgh's offense, so watch those totals in future weeks. The Steelers offense won't score like they had been before Big Ben went down, although keep in mind Le'Veon Bell is now back from suspension to lessen the blow somewhat.

-- Bills WR Sammy Watkins (calf) left the game at Miami due to a calf injury, although it is possible he was removed as a precaution with the game well out of hand.

-- Panthers DE Charles Johnson (hamstring) left the win against the Saints due to a hamstring injury, and he is expected to be OUT for Week 4. As such, the team acquired DE Jared Allen from the Bears for a sixth-round draft pick on Monday.

-- Bears QB Jay Cutler (hamstring) did not play in a 26-0 loss in Seattle, nor did WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring). Cutler is expected to sit again in Week 4 against the surprising Raiders, although Jeffery feels he'll be ready.

-- Packers WR Davante Adams (ankle) aggravated his ankle injury early in the Monday night game against the Chiefs and was unable to return.

-- Jaguars WR Marqise Lee (hamstring) injured his hamstring against the Patriots, although he felt he could have returned if needed.

-- Vikings WR Charles Johnson (ribs) left the win against the Chargers, and his status for Week 4 is uncertain.

-- Jets TE Jeff Cumberland (head) left the loss against the Eagles, and his status for Sunday's early-morning game in London against the Dolphins is in question.

Bad Beats

-- The Bengals-Ravens (45.5) game looked like a slam-dunk unnder with a total of just 21 points through three quarters. Then the offense kicked into high gear with a total of 31 points in the fourth quarter. In addition, there were four lead changes in the final stanza, with the Ravens covering the 2 1/2-point number with 6:49 to go. The Bengals were covering just 12 seconds later, then the Ravens were covering at 3:56. With 2:10 to go, the Bengals struck the final blow and came away with the 28-24 wild win.

-- The Panthers were covering a 9 1/2-point number for most of the fourth quarter, but the Saints struck for a touchdown with 4:50 left to not only help New Orleans to a cover, but that score also changed the total result from a push to an over.

-- The Colts picked up their first victory of the season, and it appeared they were on their way to their first cover, too. However, a Titans touchdown with just :47 remaining helped the home team to a cover. Indy is now 0-3 ATS.

Looking Ahead

-- The Ravens and Steelers get together Thursday in Pittsburgh, and the game has a different look with Vick starting for the home team. The Steelers are home dogs by 2 1/2 points currently, with a total at 44 1/2. The over is 11-4-2 in the past 17 meetings at Heinz Field. Baltimore enters the game with a 14-5 ATS mark in their past 19 against teams witha winning record, while Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a losing overall mark.

-- The Jets and Dolphins do battle at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30am ET. The Jets have covered six straight against AFC foes, while the Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their past six against conference opponents. New York is also 23-9-1 ATS in the past 33 meetings in this series.

-- The Jaguars hit the road for Indianapolis to battle the Colts, who, as mentioned, are 0-3 ATS so far. While they're 17-4-1 ATS in their past 22 against divisional opponents, the favorite has cashed in each of the past five meetings in this series. Jacksonville is also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

-- Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers ready for their second divisional game, and first at home. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their past five divisional games. However, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the favorite 11-4 ATS in the past 15.

-- The Eagles head to the nation's capital to battle the Redskins. While the Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, Washington isn't much better. The 'Skins are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 divisional battles, 8-19 ATS in their past 27 against the NFC and a dismal 4-12 ATS in their past 16 overall. The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 battles with the over hitting in four of the past five meetings.

-- In the sixth and final divisional game of the weekend, the Cardinals host the Rams. St. Louis is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 divisional games, while Arizona is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games. The Cards are 20-7 ATS in their past 27, 21-8 ATS in their past 29 against NFC opponents and 5-2 ATS in their past seven divisional outings. The Rams are also 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to the desert, and 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The under is 8-3 in the past 11 in Glendale, and 10-4 in the past 14 meetings overall.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 12:53 PM

Tech Trends - Week 4

September 29, 2015

THURSDAY, SEPT. 27

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
After years of taut battles, last year's three meetings (including playoffs) all decided by DD margins. Ravens won the rubber match in postseason. Flacco has won 4 of last 6 SU at Heinz Field. Steel "over" 11-3 last 14 at home.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on recent Steel "totals" trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 4

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets "under" 8-3 last ten since late 2014. If Philbin a dog note 10-6 mark last 16 in role. Note that Rex Ryan covered 6 of last 8 vs. Dolphins while with Jets.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Series all-Colts lately, who have won and covered last five meetings, all of those by DD margins. Gus Bradley 11-21-1 as dog since 2013. "Unders" 7-1 last eight in series. Colts were 12-4-1 last 17 as chalk entering 2015 but 0-3 in role TY.
Tech Edge: Colts and "under," based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

HOUSTON at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Head coach Bill O'Brien 3-5-1 as dog since LY, Texans 6-10-1 in role since 2013. Falcs were 1-7 vs. line against AFC the past two years for Mike Smith, but are now soaring at 3-0 SU and vs. line for new HC Dan Quinn.
Tech Edge: Falcons, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
"Unders" 3-0 last three and 4-1-1 last six in series. Cam 2-6 as road chalk since 2012. Bucs 2-8 vs. spread last 10 at Raymond James Stadium.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

N.Y. GIANTS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Since late 2005, Bills are 5-14 vs. line in game after facing hated Dolphins. G-Men have covered last three on road since late 2014, and have covered 3 of last 4 as dog. Also "over" 7-2 last nine away. Bills "under" 9-2 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

OAKLAND at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
John Fox on 3-8 spread skid last ten with Denver & Bears since late LY. Bears 4-12-2 last 16 vs. number at home. Raiders "over" 9-3 last 12 since mid 2014.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Raiders, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Redskins covered both LY and 4 of last 6 vs. Birds. Chip on 2-5 spread skid since late 2014. Eagles had been "over" 11-5 on road for Chip before "under" first two TY at Falcons and Jets. "Overs" 4-1 last five meetings. Skins 6-13 last 19 vs. spread at FedEx Field.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Eagles, based on "totals" trends and Skins home woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

KANSAS CITY at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 7-3 last 10 as pick or dog. Chiefs 8-5 vs. spread last 13 on road in reg. season. Cincy "under" 8-4 last 12 since mid 2014, and 13-3-1 last 17 vs. spread at Paul Brown Stadium. Though only 4-5-1 last 10 as chalk.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

CLEVELAND at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Brownies 5-2-1 as road underdog since last year. Bolts only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at Qualcomm Stadium.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jim Harbaugh was 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 vs. line against Packers. Niners have dropped 8 of last 9 vs. line since late LY, but did get cover in home opener vs. Vikings. Niners "under" 7-2 in Santa Clara. Pack 6-2 last eight as road chalk.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

MINNESOTA at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 17-8 vs. spread in reg season at Sports Authority since Manning arrived in 2012. Also "over" 17-9 last 26 at home. Though the Mike Zimmer Vikes are "under" 7-2 away since last year.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

ST. LOUIS at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bruce Arians 4-0 vs. line against Rams since 2013. Big Red 11-3-1 vs. spread last 15 at home. Also "over" first three this season. Fisher 5-12 vs. line away since 2013.
Tech Edge: Cards and "over," based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

DALLAS at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints no wins or covers last six at Superdome! Last four "over" vs. Dallas since 2010. Cowboys 9-1 vs. line away since last season! Also 7-2 "over" last nine away.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 5

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

DETROIT at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Lions now 3-8 vs. line away for head coach Jim Caldwell, and 9-22-1 vs. spread last 32 away. Caldwell "under" 7-2 away since LY. Pete 18-6 vs. spread as regular season host since 2012.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 12:55 PM

Roethlisberger frustrated but relieved

September 29, 2015

PITTSBURGH (AP) Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger says he's frustrated but relieved his knee injury is not more serious.

Roethlisberger is out indefinitely after spraining the medial collateral ligament in his left knee and sustaining a bone bruise. He was hurt in the third quarter of last Sunday's 12-6 win at St. Louis. Roethlisberger says he initially thought he broke his leg and was pleased his MRI revealed no extensive damage.

He does not believe the hit by Rams safety Mark Barron was dirty.

Michael Vick will start Thursday night when Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore. Roethlisberger isn't sure when he'll be cleared to return but hopes to be on the sideline in support if he can get off crutches by then

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 12:58 PM

Falcons, Panthers are cream of NFC crop

September 29, 2015

Move over, NFC West. The NFC South is No. 1.

Seven wins were good enough to win the South last year when Carolina beat Atlanta in a winner-take-all regular season finale to clinch the title at 7-8-1.

Now, both teams are 3-0. It's the only division with two undefeated teams.

The natural overreaction is to call the NFC South the best in football. But not so fast.

The Falcons rallied for a 39-28 win over Dallas on Sunday to become the first team in NFL history to start 3-0 after trailing in the fourth quarter of each game. But they're a couple plays away from 1-2.

Let's see how well Atlanta fares against teams outside the NFC East. The Falcons beat Philadelphia because Cody Parkey missed a field goal late in the fourth quarter. They beat the New York Giants after a costly fumble in the red zone by Eli Manning. They knocked off the Cowboys without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

New coach Dan Quinn might be the early favorite to win the Coach of the Year Award and Julio Jones looks unstoppable, but these Falcons still have a way to go to compare to the Dirty Birds.

As for the Panthers, they beat the Jaguars (1-2), Texans (1-2) and Saints (0-3) without Drew Brees. Their schedule gets tougher with four of the next five games against Seattle, Indianapolis, Green Bay and the Eagles.

The Falcons and Panthers are certainly the class of their division and one of them should win it with double-digit victories instead of seven. But, they've still got to prove they can play with teams like Green Bay (2-0), Arizona (3-0) and even Seattle (1-2).

Here are other overreactions from Week 3:

OVERREACTION: The Steelers can't win without Big Ben. A knee injury will force Pittsburgh (2-1) to play several games without Ben Roethlisberger.

REALISTIC REACTION: Michael Vick has won plenty of games in the NFL, and he has plenty of talent around to help. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are arguably the best receiver-runner combo in the NFL. Vick still has a strong arm, and he's still elusive, even at 35 years old.

---

OVERREACTION: Same old Jets. They fell behind the hapless Eagles 24-0 before rallying only to fall short in a 24-17 loss.

REALISTIC REACTION: It was a classic trap game for New York. The Jets (2-1) had a short week coming off a Monday night win at Indianapolis with a trip to London coming up. They faced a nonconference team desperate to save its season, setting them up for a letdown.

---

OVERREACTION: The Ravens are done. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell to 0-3 with a 28-24 loss at home to Cincinnati (3-0).

REALISTIC REACTION: It will be a tough road for Baltimore, which had been the only existing team to never lose its first three games. But the Ravens aren't this bad. They had a chance to win each game, and their upcoming schedule is favorable.

---

OVERREACTION: Derek Carr is the next Rich Gannon. A week after throwing for 351 yards and three TDs in a win over Baltimore, Carr had 314 yards passing and two TDs against Cleveland while leading Oakland (2-1) to its first road win since 2013.

REALISTIC REACTION: Carr is playing well, but Gannon was an NFL MVP who led the team to a Super Bowl. Carr is already better than Terrelle Pryor and JaMarcus Russell, though.

---

OVERREACTION: Gary Kubiak is a genius. The Broncos are 3-0, their defense is strong and Peyton Manning is playing like his old self.

REALISTIC REACTION: The Broncos beat teams who are a combined 1-7. They've always won games they should win. It's the tough games against playoff teams that give them trouble.

---

OVERREACTION: Time to jump off the Cowboys' bandwagon. Dallas blew three 14-point leads in a loss to Atlanta.

REALISTIC REACTION: If Brandon Weeden leads the Cowboys to 28 points every week, they'll make the playoffs without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

---

OVERREACTION: The AFC South is the NFC South. The Colts, Jaguars, Texans and Titans are tied at 1-2.

REALISTIC REACTION: Andrew Luck is 17-2 within the division so the Colts are a good bet to reach 9-7.

---

OVERREACTION: Bench Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers lost 47-7 to Arizona, and Kaepernick threw four interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns.

REALISTIC REACTION: Get serious. Blaine Gabbert was 5-22 in Jacksonville. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the NFC championship game twice in three seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 12:59 PM

Bills WR Watkins is uncertain for Week 4

September 28, 2015

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Buffalo Bills receiver Sammy Watkins' status is uncertain for Sunday's game against the New York Giants because of a calf injury.

Coach Rex Ryan provided an update on Monday, a day after Watkins left in the first quarter of the Bills' 41-14 win at Miami.

Ryan said ''it's a possibility'' Watkins won't be available this week. Bills players had Monday off.

Watkins, the second-year receiver, has seven receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown through the first three games.

The Bills (2-1) host the Giants (1-2) on Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 01:11 PM

Raiders' Del Rio sees room to grow after back-to-back wins

September 28, 2015

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) If there was any danger of the Oakland Raiders becoming overconfident this week facing the winless Chicago Bears after winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2012, coach Jack Del Rio delivered a warning Monday.

''There's a lot of growth in front of us and we absolutely got to grind and push and continue to sacrifice, and as coaches we're going to continue to demand,'' Del Rio said, one day after a 27-20 victory against the Cleveland Browns. ''And we expect to play a lot better football as we go forward in the season, and the only way you can do that is if you put in the work.''

The Raiders (2-1) ended their 11-game road losing streak and their 16-game skid in the Eastern time zone on Sunday. Now they'll try to win three straight for the first time since 2011, when former coach Hue Jackson led them to victories against San Diego and Minnesota on the road then Chicago at home.

For the second straight week, the Raiders delivered a big play down the stretch to secure a victory. Two weeks ago, quarterback Derek Carr threw a game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Seth Roberts with 26 second left in a 37-33 victory against Baltimore. At Cleveland, free safety Charles Woodson intercepted a Josh McCown pass at the Raiders' 12 with 38 seconds remaining.

''We try and make all the little details important every day so when it's late in the fourth quarter and it's time to make a play, you're going to do what you're trained to do,'' Del Rio said.

The Raiders' improved offense had triple-digit days from three of its top young weapons - Carr, running back Latavius Murray and rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. Carr passed for 314 yards and two touchdowns, Murray carried 26 times for 139 yards and one score, and Cooper caught eight passes for 134 yards.

''It's important to have weapons available,'' Del Rio said. ''What gives it all a chance to go is the offensive line. I think where you as a football team have a chance to look at some of those playmakers running down the field is if your offensive line is holding up and blocking well. It starts with the men in the trenches. Defensively I'd say the same thing. It starts with our guys up front.''

On defense, the Raiders had their first five sacks of the season, with linebacker Khalil Mack getting two of those and forcing a fumble.

The Raiders made strides overall defensively but got burned for the third straight game by an opposing tight end, this time Gary Barnidge, who had six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown.

''There's a cloaking device I think they have,'' Del Rio joked. ''Somehow they're going right down the field without us able to see them. We're going to see if we can remove that cloaking device.''

NOTES:

The Raiders released cornerback Chimdi Chekwa and rookie offensive tackle Anthony Morris from injured reserve. Morris was a seventh-round draft pick out Tennessee State. ... Defensive lineman C.J. Wilson (calf) was the only injured Raider who didn't finish the game Sunday. Del Rio said he won't know until later in week whether starting defensive tackle Justin Ellis (ankle) will be able to play Sunday after missing the past two games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2015, 01:32 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Steelers home underdogs without Big Ben

“I've been making the home team in this rivalry a one to 3-point favorite for as long as I can remember, but without Roethlisberger, that won't be the case here." - John Avello, Wynn

A key AFC North tilt kicks off Week 4 in the NFL, with Baltimore traveling to rival Pittsburgh to play under the Thursday night lights, with both teams reeling. The Ravens still haven’t cracked the win column SU or ATS, and the Steelers lost stud quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to a left knee injury Sunday.

Baltimore (0-3 SU and ATS), a 2.5-point home favorite against Cincinnati Sunday, rallied from a 14-0 deficit to take a 24-21 lead with four minutes left. But the Bengals then drove for a touchdown, handing the Ravens a 28-24 loss.

This week’s trip to Heinz Field marks Baltimore’s third road game of the season already, after the Ravens opened with losses at Denver and at Oakland in games that easily could have fallen in the Ravens’ favor.

The Steelers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) escaped St. Louis with an ugly 12-6 victory Sunday as a 1.5-point road underdog, but Roethlisberger exited in the third quarter and left the stadium on crutches with an MCL sprain. He’s expected to miss four to six weeks.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, made the Ravens a 2.5-point chalk.

“The loss of Roethlisberger is huge. He’s worth at least seven points to a spread because of the offense Pittsburgh runs and the fact that backup Michael Vick is a bottom-tier replacement,” Lester said. “If Big Ben isn’t available, and it doesn’t appear he will be, the offense will struggle. Prior to the injury, we were looking to make the home team between a six and 7-point favorite.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said he’ll be adjusting from a long-held formula.

“I've been making the home team in this rivalry a one to 3-point favorite for as long as I can remember, but without Roethlisberger, that won't be the case here,” Avello told Covers. “The Ravens haven't played that poorly, they just haven't won, and they will be the road favorite for this game.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (OTB)

Despite losing star wideout Jordy Nelson for the year in preseason play, the Packers (2-0 SU and ATS) didn’t miss a beat in the first two weeks. Green Bay won and cashed on the road against Chicago in Week 1, then dropped two-time defending NFC champion Seattle 27-17 in Week 2 as a 3.5-point home fave.

The Packers close out the NFL’s Week 3 slate by hosting Kansas City Monday night.

San Francisco (1-2 SU and ATS) shed its head coach and some key players between last year and the 2015 season, and is still trying to sort things out. On Sunday at Arizona, the 49ers got hammered 47-7 as a 7-point pup.

“The Niners haven't shown a whole lot to get excited about, and Colin Kaepernick looked like a rookie against the Cardinals on Sunday,” Avello said. “In the past, I would say that maybe their defense might slow Aaron Rodgers down, but then again, what defense?

With Green Bay still to play tonight, there’s no line on the game yet, but all things being equal, Lester said the Packers will probably be touchdown favorites.

“As long as no one significant gets injured for Green Bay on Monday – and I certainly hope that isn’t the case, the way quarterbacks are dropping in this league – we will look to make the Packers seven or 8-point favorites,” Lester said. “The Niners aren’t as bad as they’ve looked the last two weeks, but they are up against a juggernaut here.”

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

With a healthy Carson Palmer at quarterback, Arizona is rolling and continues to play well in its home dome. On Sunday, the Cardinals (3-0 SU and ATS) steamrolled San Francisco 47-7 laying seven points at home. Arizona is 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 at home.

St. Louis (1-2 SU and ATS) opened the season with a home upset of Seattle, winning 34-31 as a 3.5-point pup, then was inexplicably pedestrian against a much weaker foe, losing 24-10 at Washington as a 3-point fave. The offensive inadequacies continued Sunday in a 12-6 home loss to Pittsburgh as a 1.5-point fave, despite the Steelers being without Ben Roethlisberger the last 20 minutes of the game.

“As I’ve said before, the Cardinals are very underrated, especially at home,” Lester said. “St. Louis is stuck in quicksand offensively, and that’s not where you want to be against this Arizona defense. I would’ve liked to make the Cards a bit higher favorite, but if this ends up being a defensive battle, we didn’t want to expose ourselves to the sharp dog bettors.”

Said Avello: “It appears that this might be an easy one for the Cards, and I'm not taking anything away from them, because they are a very good team. But the three clubs they've beaten have a combined total of one win,” Avello said. “The Rams are very familiar with the Phoenix surroundings, and this is a division game that will be sought out by a very desperate St. Louis team.”

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (OTB)

The injury bug has bitten Dallas hard, as it lost all-world wideout Dez Bryant (broken foot) in Week 1 and standout QB Tony Romo (broken clavicle) in Week 2. The Cowboys (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) managed to win both games (1-1 ATS) and were poised to go to 3-0 when they took a 28-14 halftime lead Sunday against Atlanta. But the Cowboys didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 39-28 laying one point at home.

New Orleans’ precipitous fall continued Sunday in a 27-22 loss at Carolina as a 10-point dog. The Saints (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) were without Drew Brees (rotator cuff), and his status isn’t yet set for the Sunday night game.

For several years, the Saints were among the stoutest teams in the league at home, but they lost their home opener this year to Tampa Bay 26-19 as a healthy 9.5-point chalk and have now dumped six in a row SU and seven in row ATS at the Superdome.

“We’re going to wait to see what the status of Brees is before putting up a number,” Lester said. “He’s not as valuable as he used to be, but he would still impact a line at minimum four to five points. If Brees is out again, two backups squaring off under center complicates things a bit. If that is the case, we will likely open the Cowboys as short chalk.”

Avello noted that with no Romo and possibly no Brees, this game has lost a ton of allure for bettors.

“I don't believe that before the season started, any of us thought we would see a Brandon Weeden/Luke McCown matchup for this prime-time contest,” Avello said. “For sure we're seeing Weeden, and there's a slight chance that Brees will return. Although team recognition is there for bettors, I may leave work early next Sunday, because the action on this one may be light.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2015, 03:22 AM

Contenders or Pretenders

September 29, 2015

So…are we all set for the Jets/Bengals AFC championship game in January? Followed by the Falcons/Cardinals NFC title tilt? That would be quite a surprise, wouldn’t it, with Atlanta off a 6-10 season and the Jets off a 4-12 train wreck in 2014. Both seasons got their coaching staffs fired.

However, last season is ancient history. And that's the thing about the NFL: parity is very much alive and well, the life blood of the league for decades. They’ve been part of a group of surprise teams so far in the NFL.

The Jets blew out the Browns in the opener but many thought, "Anyone can beat the Browns." Then the New Yorkers went to Indianapolis and as a seven-point underdog shut down Andrew Luck and the Colts on Monday night, opening a lot of eyes.

Even the Rams got in the act opening day by slaying the Seahawks. But, as hoop legend Red Auerbach used to say, “It ain’t the 5 that start, it’s the 5 who finish.”

Just think back one year ago at this time. The Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals were the only 3-0 teams in the NFL. The eventual Super Bowl matchup was....Patriots/Seahawks.

In fact, those Patriots started 2-2 with all kinds of problems, prompting one national commentator to bark, "The Patriots aren't good anymore." To which Bill Belichick replied, "We're on to Cincinnati." Those same 3-0 Bengals got roasted by the Patriots and the rest was history.

I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries, personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football team, and a hot start doesn't mean that a team is great, just as a cold start doesn't mean a club is out of it.

This happens all the time. Scheduling can hurt a team out of the gate, as can injuries. Three times in the last four years the Chicago Bears had hot start before losing key players, including quarterback Jay Cutler, to injuries. Protecting vital assets like Cutler, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees is priority No. 1 for their head coaches -- and Brees is already banged up in 2015.

This is the era of offense in the NFL with all the rule changes, but no one told that to the Seahawks, Jets or Cardinals. Those Seahawks started 0-2 this year, but they are still a sizzling 38-17-1 against the spread versus the NFC, including 38-18-2 ATS at home after shutting out the Bears Sunday, 26-0.

In 2013 Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs started perfect, but didn’t finish up that way. They were league's first 3-0 team including a satisfying 26-16 road win over the Eagles, Reid’s old team. However, they didn’t face many tough quarterbacks during their 9-0 start and were actually outgained twice during their 3-0 start, so cracks were evident – if anyone cared to look close.

You want a strong finish, but you don’t want a cold start, either. The 2013 NY Giants started a miserable 0-6, then started to win and cover down the stretch. Of the 164 teams that have started the season 0-3 since 1978, only five made the NFL playoffs.

In each of their recent Super Bowl years the Giants played .500 football for much of the season before getting hot down the stretch. We saw that four years ago, too, as the Green Bay Packers were fortunate to stumble into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then went on a red-hot roll on the way to winning the whole thing.

Five years ago at this time the Bears and Chiefs were two of the remaining three unbeaten teams. They made the playoffs, but the Chiefs were one-and-done while the Bears fell short in the NFC title game. The Chiefs had been 85/1 to win the Super Bowl that season.

Sure, in 2009 the eventual Super Bowl participants, the Colts and Saints, had red-hot starts, both not far from 16-0 regular seasons. Yet, seven years ago as late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were.

Naturally, a team doesn't want to get off to bad starts, like this year's Ravens, Colts, Texans, Lions and Giants, but a poor start isn't a death knell. A poor start makes it tough as there are only 16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a hot start isn't mandatory. In 2013 Carolina started 1-3 but ended up 12-4 winning the division. Another recent season the Eagles looked terrible during a 0-2 SU/ATS start, then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular season, winning 13 of their next 15 games.

It's a marathon and all kinds of things can crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck, even scheduling, or bad chemistry. If your team is off to a disappointing start, relax; and if your team is off to a hot start, don’t start making preparations for the playoffs. It's not the fastest horse out of the gate, but the one who crosses the finish line.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2015, 03:25 AM

Public Fades - Week 4

September 30, 2015

The underdogs didn’t fare as well in Week 3 as they did in Week 2, while public plays Pittsburgh and Atlanta hit in non-favorite roles. Seattle, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, New England, Denver, and Green Bay all won as favorites and all picked up victories of 10 points or more. The third installment of this weekly piece has split each of its games in the first two columns, as the Titans covered while the Rams lost to the Steelers.

The point of this piece is to think outside of the box when betting on the NFL and focus on teams that will get very little attention against a public play, usually a favorite. This week (with some help from our experts), we’ll take a look at the Texans, who travel to Atlanta, and the Browns who venture out west to San Diego as our two clubs to keep an eye on in Week 4.

Texans at Falcons (-6 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta has jumped out to a 3-0 start, but all three times the Falcons have trailed at some point in the fourth quarter. In the Week 3 triumph at Dallas, the Falcons erased a 14-point deficit in a 39-28 victory, thanks to a pair of touchdown catches by Julio Jones, who has eclipsed the 135-yard mark in each of the first three wins. Now, the Falcons are listed as a favorite for the first time this season (last week’s game closed at pick-em or Dallas -1 at most spots), as Atlanta posted a 2-5 ATS mark when laying points in 2014.

The Texans finally busted through the win column in an ugly 19-9 victory over the Buccaneers, while managing a cover as six-point home favorites. Houston hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game this season, while already playing its third interconference game. Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are 4-5 SU and 5-3-1 ATS on the road, even though the wins are over the Raiders, Titans, Browns, and Jaguars.

So why back the Texans?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson questions the Falcons’ early schedule against suspect competition, “Atlanta’s wins have all come against the NFC East, barely holding on to beat the Eagles by two while being out-gained, rallying from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Giants by four, and battling back from a 14-point deficit to pull ahead of Dallas, eventually winning by 11 after tacking on a late touchdown in the final minutes."

Breaking things down further, Nelson points out several bullets dodged by Atlanta early on, “The Eagles have looked like one of the worst offenses in the league in their other two games despite posting nearly 400 yards against the Falcons in the opening week. The Giants have the second-worst total defense in the NFL through three weeks and Atlanta benefitted greatly from a New York fumble inside the 10-yard line that saved the Falcons from being behind even further in that game. Atlanta caught Dallas playing its first game without Tony Romo last week with the Falcons’ defense allowing Dallas to still rush for 6.0 yards per carry despite a backup quarterback in the game and Brandon Weeden completing nearly 85 percent of his passes."

From the pointspread perspective, the major flip into the favorite role should put bettors on notice, “With the 3-0 start the Falcons have gone from being a +3 home underdog in the opening week to being nearly a touchdown home favorite in Week 4. Houston’s losses have both come by just seven points and with just 20 points allowed per game as the Texans figure to be the superior defensive team in this matchup. The Texans also finally got back to running the ball with success last week posting 186 yards on over 4.0 yards per carry and Ryan Mallett’s confidence should grow with a win under his belt."

Browns at Chargers (-7 ½, 45) – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego returns home following consecutive road losses at Cincinnati and Minnesota, as the Lightning Bolts and Browns each enter Sunday’s contest at 1-2. The Chargers rallied from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Lions in the season opener, 33-28, while racking up 483 yards of offense. However, San Diego totaled 33 points in the last two defeats, despite outgaining Minnesota by 115 yards last Sunday.

The Browns were drilled in their season opener by the Jets, 31-10, as quarterback Josh McCown suffered an injury to open the door for Johnny Manziel in Week 2. The Heisman Trophy winner led Cleveland to a convincing 28-14 victory over Tennessee, but the Browns went back to McCown in Week 3 as they put up a clunker in a 27-20 home defeat to the Raiders. Cleveland has been outgained in all three games, while allowing at least 27 points in each loss.

So why back the Browns?

Nelson says that Cleveland has had its hands full through three weeks, “While the 1-2 start is discouraging, it is clear that the September schedule was tougher than it appeared to be. The Jets have looked like one of the better defensive teams in the league and Cleveland was buried by five turnovers in a game that was otherwise quite even statistically. In Week 2 the Browns beat the Titans by 14 and that win looks a bit more impressive at this point with Tennessee nearly beating the Colts last week and looking like they will be a competitive team this season. Last week’s loss to Oakland was a disappointment, but the Raiders are 2-1 with a greatly improved offense and Cleveland nearly battled back to tie that game after falling behind early."

There are positives with the Browns’ squad, especially with its pass defense, according to Nelson, “Cleveland has a well-respected secondary that has held opposing quarterbacks to just 60 percent completions and 237 passing yards per game and it is not hard to envision the Browns adding to the turnover trends for the Chargers. San Diego is hoping to develop its running game more this season but San Diego has been out-rushed by more than a yard per carry this season through three weeks. Only once all of last season were the Browns dogged by more than seven points and that was a Week 17 game in which rookie Connor Shaw started for Cleveland against a Ravens team that needed to win to make the playoffs and the Browns still covered."

Handicapper Antony Dinero believes McCown, in spite of an 0-2 record as a starter, is still the best option for Cleveland, “Regardless of what TMZ is reporting that Browns players are saying, there’s no question McCown currently gives Cleveland its best chance to win over Manziel at this stage of the season. Head coach Mike Pettine has the right guy in place to take his team on the road as they look to get back to .500. The Chargers only managed seven points in the first 59-plus minutes at Minnesota and are rightfully worried about the health of their offensive line. If Joe Haden is able to go despite a rib contusion suffered last week, San Diego’s top target Keenan Allen will have his hands full, as will his team.

Under Pettine, the Browns own an impressive 5-2 ATS record as a road underdog. However, Cleveland is making its first trip to the West Coast since 2012, when Cleveland knocked off Oakland, 20-17.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2015, 03:27 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 1

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BALTIMORE (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 10/1/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 4

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NY JETS (2 - 1) vs. MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in dome games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 1) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-72 ATS (-42.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-71 ATS (-45.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (3 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 1) at DENVER (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 0) - 10/4/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 144-182 ATS (-56.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 144-182 ATS (-56.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-143 ATS (-54.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ARIZONA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 3) - 10/4/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 5

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DETROIT (0 - 3) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/5/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-56 ATS (-32.6 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2015, 03:28 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday - Oct, 1

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:25 ET
Baltimore: 8-20 ATS on road after allowing 99 or less rushing yds in 3 games
Pittsburgh: 92-62 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Sunday - Oct, 4

NY Jets at Miami, 9:30 AM ET
New York: 48-29 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Miami: 0-6 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 games

Jacksonville at at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Indianapolis: 10-1 ATS versus division opponents

Houston at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Houston: 19-5 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game
Atlanta: 4-13 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 14-4 ATS on road after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 games
Tampa Bay: 4-13 ATS in the first half of the season

NY Giants at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 12-2 ATS in road games against AFC East division opponents
Buffalo: 9-25 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival

Oakland at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 8-1 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Chicago: 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS on road after gaining 4 or less yds/play in previous game
Washington: 8-20 ATS as an underdog

Kansas City at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 10-2 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 34-53 ATS in October

Cleveland at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
San Diego: 26-44 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Green Bay at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-16 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games

Minnesota at Denver, 4:25 ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Denver: 15-3 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

St Louis at Arizona, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 1-10 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points
Arizona: 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 or more points

Dallas at New Orleans, 8:30 ET
Dallas: 25-12 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game
New Orleans: 5-9 ATS off 2 straight losses against division rivals

Monday - Oct, 5

Detroit at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Detroit: 4-18 ATS in road games against NFC West division opponents
Seattle: 6-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yds in previous game

**StarDust Bum** · 10-01-2015, 03:30 AM

NFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 1

8:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games

Sunday, October 4

9:30 AM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games
Miami is 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CHICAGO
Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. ATLANTA
Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Philadelphia's last 25 games when playing on the road against Washington
Philadelphia is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Washington's last 25 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CINCINNATI
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Cincinnati is 14-4-1 ATS in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. BUFFALO
NY Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 11 games when playing on the road against Arizona
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing St. Louis
Arizona is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 25 games
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay

4:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DENVER
Minnesota is 2-15-1 SU in its last 18 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Monday, October 5

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. SEATTLE
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Announcement

The Bum's Week # 4 National Football League Picks-Trends-News Etc !!

The Bum's Week # 4 National Football League Picks-Trends-News Etc !!

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