The Bum's National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[Udog]

Good luck, Bum!

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LATE GAMES:


Miami - 4:05 PM ET Jacksonville +6 500 *****

Jacksonville - Under 42.5 500 *****


Baltimore - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Oakland - Over 41.5 500


Dallas - 4:25 PM ET Philadelphia -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Philadelphia - Over 54 500

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:30 PM ET Green Bay -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Green Bay - Under 49 500 DOUBLE PLAY

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NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/20/15

SUNDAY'S RESULTS:

*****.........................3 - 1
DOUBLE PLAYS............4 -1
TRIPLE PLAY................2 - 2 - 1
BLOW OUT...................1 - 0


*****.......................................... 6 - 4 - 1
double play...................................15 - 7
triple play......................................4 - 5 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 0
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 10 - 8 - 1 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................0 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 0 - 1
BLOW OUT..............................
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................1 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 09/21/15

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Betting Recap - Week 2

September 21, 2015

Be sure to follow VegasInsider.com on Twitter @TwitVI for the latest NFL Football betting updates and trends.

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 2 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-7-1

The largest underdog to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9, ML +350) at Saints, 26-19

The largest favorite to cover
Steelers (-6) vs. 49ers, 43-18


All about the road favorites

-- The second weekend of the NFL regular season was rather topsy-turvy. The defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks are 0-2, and the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins each have a better record than the champs after all winning in Week 2. Is it snowing in hell? Well, no, not quite. The Seahawks had a very difficult, perhaps unfair, start to the season with trips to St. Louis and Green Bay.
Suicide Kings

-- If you're in a suicide pool, you'll likely notice that you have a lot less company if you made it through. With the nine-point underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning outright, the six-point underdog Oakland Raiders taking care of business and the five-point Jacksonville Jaguars jumping into the win column, it wasn't a good week to be a road favorite. Just ask the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and St. Louis Rams, who not only did not cover, but they head home with losses. In fact, road favorites were just 1-3 SU/ATS, with only the Arizona Cardinals taking care of business in their road trip against the Chicago Bears.

Total Recall

-- Vegas did a poor job of predicting the track meets in Week 2. The Dallas-Philadelphia (53.5) game was expected to be a shootout, but it turned into a defensive battle, especially once Tony Romo (collarbone) left the game for good. The Atlanta-N.Y. Giants (49.5) and Seattle-Green Bay (49.5) games were also supposed to be high-scoring battles, but each went 'under', too.

-- The six games with the lowest totals, Baltimore-Oakland (42.5 - over), Denver-Kansas City (42 - over), Houston-Carolina (41 - push), Miami-Jacksonville (42.5 - over), Tennessee-Cleveland (41 - over) and St. Louis-Washington (41 - under), went 4-1-1.

-- In the four primetime games in Week 1, the under went 3-1, and so far in Week 2 the under is 1-1. It's a complete role reversal from last season when the over went 33-17 (66%) primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There were plenty of key players to go down with injuries in Week 2, changing the face of a few of the games.

-- Bears QB Jay Cutler (hamstring) was injured near the end of the first half, suffering a hamstring injury while attempting a tackle on a pick-six against Arizona. WR Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) was inactive for the loss.

-- Cowboys QB Tony Romo (collarbone) left the game at Philadelphia, and X-rays revealed a fractured left clavicle which will sideline him for at least eight to 10 weeks. With Romo on the mend it is QB Brandon Weeden who takes the reins of the Dez Bryant-less offense in Big D. Ouch.

-- Dolphins RB Lamar Miller (ankle) checked out of the Week 2 game in Jacksonville due to an ankle injury. TE Jordan Cameron (groin) also left with a groin injury and will be re-evaluated.

-- Falcons RB Tevin Coleman (ribs) left in the first half with an injury to his ribs and he was unable to return.

-- 49ers RB Carlos Hyde (head) was lifted from the game in Pittsburgh in the second half due to a head injury. Reports say he could have returned, but due to the lopsided score of the game Hyde was held out as a precaution.

-- Lions QB Matthew Stafford (chest, ribs) was banged up in the loss in Minnesota and needed X-rays after the game.

-- Packers RB Eddie Lacy (ankle) was carted off in the first quarter against the Seahawks and he was unable to return. X-rays were negative. Teammate WR Davante Adams (ankle) also had ankle issues, missing approximately one quarter before returning to finish up.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (ankle) was treated for an ankle injury after the team's 28-14 setback in Cleveland. TE Delanie Walker (wrist) was inactive for the loss.

Bad Beats

-- The Buccaneers-Saints (47) game got off to an extremely slow start, with just three total points in the first quarter. Scoring picked up in the second half with 28 total points, but Drew Brees just missed a receiver in the end zone in the final minute and the game ended up going under with a total of 45 points.

-- After 27 total points at halftime the Lions and Vikings combined for a total of just 15 points in the final two quarters.

-- The Giants led 20-10 after three quarters, but the Falcons outscored them 14-0 in the final quarter to turn a Giants win and cover into a road win for the underdogs.

Looking Ahead

-- The Redskins and Giants meet on Thursday night. The Giants won each meeting last season with New York covering both games. The total split 1-1 with the under hitting in New York in mid-December. The Giants have won four straight in the series, and they're 3-1 ATS. The under is also 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

-- The Colts travel to Nashville to meet the Titans. Indianapolis has won and covered seven in a row in this series since their last setback Oct. 30, 2011, a 27-10 Titans victory in Nashville.

-- The Bengals hit the road for Baltimore in Week 3. They have knocked off the Ravens in four of the past five, going 4-1 ATS during the span. The under has cashed in each of the past two meetings in Baltimore, too.

-- The Cardinals and 49ers get together, and San Francisco looks to maintain their dominance in the series. The 49ers have won 10 of the past 12 meetings, going 8-4 ATS during the span.

-- The Bills travel to South Florida looking to exorcise some demons. Buffalo is just 2-5 in their past seven trips to SunLife Stadium, and they're also 2-5 ATS during the stretch. In their past nine visits to Miami the under is 6-2-1.

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MNF - Jets at Colts

September 20, 2015

The Colts put together one of the most disappointing efforts in Week 1, while the Jets surprised many people by cruising past the Browns by 21 points. Will a return to Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night turn things around for the defending AFC South champions or will New York fly to a 2-0 start?

Indianapolis fell behind Buffalo, 24-0 and never recovered in a 27-14 defeat, as Andrew Luck’s opening day record dropped to 1-3. Luck connected on a pair of late touchdowns and threw for 243 yards, but the running game never got off the ground with just 64 yards rushing. T.Y. Hilton hauled in a team-high 88 yards for the Colts, but is listed as questionable for Monday’s game after suffering a bruised knee in the fourth quarter at Buffalo.

The Jets crushed the Browns, 31-10 to easily cash as 3 ½-point home favorites, as Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two touchdown passes in his New York debut. Fitzpatrick spread the ball around as four receivers caught at least two passes, while Brandon Marshall picked up 62 yards and a touchdown in his first game in a Jets’ uniform. The contest finished ‘over’ the total of 39 ½, as the final touchdown came with 10:38 remaining.

The Colts and Jets are meeting up for the first time since Luck’s rookie season of 2012, when New York dominated Indianapolis, 35-9 at Met Life Stadium. The Jets intercepted Luck twice, while rushing for 252 yards on Indianapolis, who was held out of the end zone. For the exception of Luck, many of the top offensive players in that game are no longer on either of these teams, as Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow combined to throw for 105 yards. New York is making its first trip to Indianapolis since the 2010 playoffs, when the Jets escaped past the Colts, 17-16 as one-point underdogs in the Wild Card round.

Since 2012, the Colts have compiled a solid 14-5 SU and 11-6-2 ATS record as a home favorite, including a 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS mark last season. Indianapolis failed to cover its home opener of 2014, falling on a last-minute field goal to Philadelphia (also on Monday night), 30-27 as three-point favorites. All three home openers have been decided by four points or less with Luck under center, including a 21-17 victory over Oakland in 2013 as 11-point ‘chalk.’

The Jets lost their first six road games last season before December victories at Tennessee and Miami. New York is riding a four-game skid in away openers since 2011, but the last two defeats at New England and Green Bay were decided by seven points or less. In the last three seasons, the Jets have put together a 5-2-2 ATS record as a road underdog of seven points or more, while winning just three times, which includes a Monday night triumph at Atlanta in 2013.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the underdogs may be worth a look on Monday, “While Fitzpatrick is not the long term answer for the Jets, he is very familiar with Chan Gailey’s offense and had a steady performance in Week 1 against a good Cleveland defense, aided by a strong running game for New York behind Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. Run defense may again be an area of weakness for the Colts as the Bills rushed for 147 yards last week, but the Colts have been a far better performer on both sides of the ball at home in recent years.”

Nelson points out that even a loss for Indianapolis isn’t a season-killer, “For the Colts, an 0-2 start might sound devastating, but the division does not appear to be one that will require a great record to win as Indianapolis rattled off five straight wins to take command of the AFC South last season after losing the first two games.”

Luck is playing in his fourth Monday night game of his career, posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record, with the lone victory coming over the Giants as a three-point road favorite last season. The Jets have slumped to a 1-4 SU record in their last five Monday night contests since 2012, but have covered three times in the underdog role.

The underdog-‘under’ combination came through in both Monday night games in Week 1 with the Falcons and 49ers cashing at home. The ‘over’ hit in 12 of 18 Monday contests last season, while the ‘over’ is 2-3 in five primetime games so far in 2015.

The Colts are currently seven-point home favorites at most sports books, while the total is hovering between 46 ½ and 47. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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NFL

Monday, September 21


Cowboys QB Romo breaks clavicle

PHILADELPHIA -- Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo fractured his left clavicle in the third quarter of Sunday's game at Lincoln Financial Field.

His status for the rest of the season is to be determined.

Romo lost a fumble with the Cowboys ahead 13-0 and clutched for his left shoulder while lying flat on his back. As the Dallas offense and Eagles' defense went off, Romo remained on the field.

He was driven into the ground by rookie linebacker Jordan Hicks, who forced the ball out.

Brandon Weeden is the No. 2 quarterback for the Cowboys.

Romo said before the game his back was sore entering the Week 2 NFC East showdown with the Eagles.


Bears' QB Cutler injures hamstring vs. Cardinals

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was forced to leave the game against the Arizona Cardinals after suffering a hamstring injury in the second quarter.

Cutler injured himself while attempting to make a tackle on an interception thrown to Cardinals defensive back Tony Jefferson that was returned for a touchdown.

Cutler's status for Week 3's contest between the Bears and Seahawks in Seattle remains uncertain.


Cowboys' WR Bryant timeline now 10-12 weeks

Dallas Cowboys' star wideout Dez Bryant is now expected to miss 10-12 weeks with a broken foot, according to the NFL Network's Ian Rapaport.

It was initially thought Bryant would miss just four-to-six weeks with his injury, but the updated injury timeline has him coming back somewhere in December.

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NFL

Monday, September 21

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Monday Night Betting Preview: Jets at Colts
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Andrew Luck and the Colts are looking for their first win of 2015 and are 7-point faves against the visiting Jets.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 46.5)

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are hoping their second matchup with an AFC East foe goes better than the first. Playing at home should provide an added lift for the Colts, who will try to rebound from a season-opening drubbing in Buffalo when they host the New York Jets on Monday night.

Touted as one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, Indianapolis fell behind by 17 points at halftime and never recovered in a 27-14 loss to the Bills. "They beat us pretty bad," Luck said. "You don't let one game necessarily define you, but that doesn't make it any easier of a pill to swallow." The Jets turned in an impressive performance in Todd Bowles' debut as a head coach, pulling away in the second half for a decisive 31-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns. New York has won the past two meetings, including a 35-9 romp in October 2012 in Luck's fifth career game.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Colts -7. O/U: 46.5

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened favored by a converted touchdown and have remained there all week. The total has been bet down slightly from 47.0 to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - WR D. Smith (probable Monday, ribs), CB A. Cromartie (questionable Monday, knee), RB C. Ivory (questionable Monday, groin), LB L. Mauldin (doubtful Monday, concussion).

Colts - LB J. Newsome (probable Monday, hamstring), LB D. Jackson (probable Monday, toe), WR T. Hilton (questionable Monday, knee), LB R. Mathis (questionable Monday, Achilles), CB D. Smith (questionable Monday, undisclosed), CB G. Toler (doubtful Monday, neck), CB D. Bulter (out Monday, hip).

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (+1.5) - Colts (-2) + home field (-3) = Colts -3.5

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): New York amassed 154 yards on the ground against Cleveland but there are injury concerns over Chris Ivory (groin), who was limited in practice for a second straight day Friday after rushing for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Week 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, elevated to starter when Geno Smith had his jaw broken in the preseason, threw for 179 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while Brandon Marshall had six catchesor 62 yards and a score in his Jets debut. New York's defense forced five fumbles and had three sacks but figures to receive a much more stern test from Luck than Johnny Manziel.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Luck and Indianapolis' offense did next to nothing for nearly three quarters a week ago and could be without top wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has not practiced this week after suffering a bruised knee that was thought to be much more severe. A pair of veteran newcomers both had quiet debuts with the Colts - Andre Johnson had four catches for 24 yards and running back Frank Gore was limited to 31 yards on 10 carries as Indy managed only 64 yards rushing. The Colts have issues on the other side of the ball with starting cornerback Greg Toler to miss a second straight week while his backup, Darius Butler (hip), did not practice Friday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split in this matchup, with 56 percent of wagers backing the Colts at -7.

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Books strike back in Week 2

September 21, 2015

When Week 2 NFL opening numbers were posted at the beginning of last week, it was apparent that there was luxury tax placed on a few of the teams that beat the sports books in Week 1.

The books knew who the public was going to play, and they set numbers against their emotion, and played it brilliantly to a winning week.

"We had a house player on the Steelers pretty heavy," said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood, referring to the Steelers easy 43-18 win as six-point home favorites over the 49ers, "but it turned out to be a good day for us."

CG Technology VP of risk management, Jason Simbal, said their books had a good day as did Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. Every book was in the black and most of it was based on the public riding the teams hard that fared well last week believing what they saw last to be gospel.

They laid more points than they should have on overpriced teams like New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Miami, and St. Louis, much to the delight of the books.

One of the few games where the public was correct on was the Patriots, who had moved to a 2-point underdog at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Rood said his MGM books had taken sharp action on the Bills, but that it was one-sided with public parlay money on the Patriots.

McCormick cited the Cardinals, Steelers and combination of Patriots to OVER as being their worst decisions.

The most one-sided game of the day at the books was the public rolling with the Rams (-3.5) at Washington at a 90 percent clip on the Rams, who had just come off a big win against the Seahawks.
Washington controlled the game throughout in a 24-10 win. And things like that just continued to roll on the day for the books, just one week after having things go against them in the same fashion.

Tampa Bay, a 10-point road underdog, would take out a popular Saints squad, 26-19, the Browns (PK) won at home over the Titans, 28-14, and then in the afternoon the Raiders (+6) beat the Ravens 37-33 and Cowboys (+6.5) won 20-10 at Philadelphia.

"Yeah, it was a big day," said Simbal. "The Redskins were the biggest game of the day, Raiders next and then the Browns."

So what happens in Week 3 with the betting public?

Yes, the masses enjoyed the riches of Week 1 and they felt they had momentum and a crystal ball that was going to carry into Week 2 with another nice win. But they didn't care that prices were inflated and some forgot that this is the NFL where any team on any given Sunday can beat any other team.

One week after being down on the Buccaneers, you have to kind of respect its road win at New Orleans and think a little more when they're getting up to seven points this Sunday at Houston, who has started 0-2.

The odds on this matchup opened at Houston -5 and -5.5 at most shops, which is a dead number but the Bucs still have that public stigma against them and that is going to give you value with them, at least for one more week. If Tampa Bay wins on the road again this week, Love Smith and company will definitely be on the radar screen for many because the public loves winners.

One game that won't see too much action just because the public won't have an easy decision is Oakland getting four points at Cleveland. They hate both the teams, but at the same time, both teams showed some offense and life in their Week 2 wins at home. The Browns might actually be a little cheap at home in this spot, but who wants to lay over a field goal with them. With so many betting options in the 1:00 p.m. ET start times, this game will get buried on the level of importance while the parlays are being filled out.

One of the most popular public teams over the past decade has been the Saints, but they're on the slow descend out of favor with many bettors, and this week they're catching three points at Carolina. The combination of the Saints on the road and on grass hasn't been a good combination for New Orleans even when they were good.

Despite a 0-2 start, you can believe the public will come strong again with the Eagles this week, a team bettors absolutely fell in love with during preseason and a team the books jacked up a team rating rarely seen so drastic during the exhibition season.

Philadelphia opened -2.5 at the New York Jets while the total is sitting at 47.5. This was a team expected by many to regularly be cashing side to OVER parlays at 13/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) all season, but it hasn't happened yet. Look for the public to go to the well one more time with a desperate Philly squad until finally jumping off Chip Kelly and his troops.

Tough choices to make this week, but you can bet they will be made.

Best of luck on the decisions!

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 8:30 PM ET Indianapolis -6 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indianapolis - Under 45 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/21/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS:

*****.........................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS............0 -0
TRIPLE PLAY................1 - 1 - 0
BLOW OUT...................0 - 0


*****.......................................... 6 - 4 - 1
double play...................................15 - 7
triple play......................................5 - 6 - 1
blow out........................................2 - 0
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 10 - 8 - 1 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................2 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................0 - 0
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY..................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 2 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 0 - 1
BLOW OUT..............................
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM...............
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY............................0 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.............................2 - 1
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0


GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 09/24/15

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NFL Week 3 Essentials

September 21, 2015

Underdogs barked loudly in the second week of the NFL season, winning outright in nine of the first 15 games entering the Monday nighter between the Jets and Colts. Johnny Manziel was a winner. The Bucs, who were 2-14 last season, handed New Orleans its sixth consecutive Superdome loss as Jameis Winston won for the first time. To say it was a puzzling week would be an understatement. Let’s look ahead to Week 3:

Thursday, Sept. 24

Washington at N.Y. Giants:

New York became the first team in NFL history to start 0-2 despite holding double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. The common denominator in both setbacks is Eli Manning making brutal decisions in the red zone, a development that no one could see coming considering one of his primary attributes is his decision-making and veteran influence. With a division rival coming into town, the opportunity is there to respond quickly and get back on track, but the Giants will have to contend with emerging rookie running back Matt Jones, a third-round pick out of Florida who appears to have displaced Alfred Morris as the starter. This will be the first run-first team New York has played.

Sunday, Sept. 27

Pittsburgh at St. Louis:

The physical nature that’s expected to carry the Rams into playoff contention simply wasn’t there against Washington, which could be attributed to a young team suffering a hangover after beating the Seahawks but may be something greater. The Steelers bounced back from their opening night loss in New England by thrashing the 49ers and get Le’Veon Bell back in the fold. Considering how poorly St. Louis fared against the run in Landover, the AFC’s top rusher in 2014 could be in line for a big debut. Backup DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 204 yards and three scores, so the Steelers definitely have their ground game going. St. Louis was 14th against the run last season and was counting on taking a step forward in that department. How they fare against the Steelers ground game will likely dictate whether they can take down another heavyweight down at home in the dome. First-round pick Todd Gurley (ACL) may be available to help the Rams try and control tempo in what would be his NFL debut.

San Diego at Minnesota:

Despite a horrible season-opening performance in San Francisco and a short week of preparation, the Vikings mauled Detroit, surviving Adrian Peterson’s fumbling issues as Teddy Bridgewater showed a pulse. The biggest plus was the physical nature they displayed after being blown off the ball by the 49ers. Minnesota will be expected to replicate that effort at home against a Chargers offensive line dealing with health concerns. San Diego is on the road for a second consecutive week. Teams in that situation in Week 2 went 0-5 SU and ATS.

Tampa Bay at Houston:

Winston still made mistakes, but was cool under pressure in his first road game and didn't turn the ball over while also making some big throws on third down. He'll take those building blocks on the road against a Texans defense that gave up 350 yards against Cam Newton and Carolina, coming up with just two sacks. Ryan Mallett will make his first home start since being promoted to starting quarterback in place of Brian Hoyer, but he came up short on the Texans final drive in their bid to tie the game. Don't expect Mallett's job to be made easier by Arian Foster, who will miss at least one more week.

Philadelphia at N.Y.

Jets: No team appeared more embarrassed in Week 2 than the Eagles, who rightfully drew boos at home in a 20-10 loss to Dallas where they accomplished little other than knocking out rival Tony Romo out of action for a couple of months. Their offensive line was physically dominated, which doesn’t bode well when facing a Jets defense whose strength is its imposing front line. Fortunately for Philly, New York faces a short week of preparation and remains without suspended DT Sheldon Richardson.. Teams faced with short weeks after the opening MNF doubleheader went 2-2 straight up and ATS in Week 2.

Jacksonville at New England:

The Patriots have rolled through two of the more talented teams in the AFC East in wins over the Steelers and Bills, but now Bill Belichick has to guard against complacency as his Patriots handle the role of double-digit favorite for the first time. His job is made easier by the Jaguars upset win over Miami, which is certain to get his team's attention. Despite the absence of top offensive tackle Luke Joeckel and top defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks, the Jags controlled the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville was also without key safety Johnathan Cyprien and tight end Julius Thomas, so monitor their availability here.

New Orleans at Carolina:

There was something evidently wrong with Drew Brees, who had a miserable afternoon against Tampa Bay and was hit hardest on a play where he appeared to suffer an injured shoulder early in the second quarter, fumbling and never again looking like his normal self. A physical Panthers defense that survived at home without top LB Luke Kuechly should make it difficult for Brees to find a rhythm if he's out there. Kuechly is scheduled to participate in non-contact drills on Wednesday as he begins the process of being cleared through the NFL’s concussion protocol.

Cincinnati at Baltimore:

It’s early, but potentially must-win time for the 0-2 Ravens, who make their home debut after a pair of frustrating West Coast setbacks that may have turned out differently if they were able to execute in the red zone. The Bengals could take an early stranglehold on the AFC North if they’re able to move to 3-0 here. Cincinnati potentially faces a running back controversy after starter Jeremy Hill was pulled following a pair of key fumbles against San Diego. Speedy Giovani Bernard came on and ran for 123 yards on 20 carries, potentially wrestling away the job. The powerful Hill is still the better goal-line threat.

Oakland at Cleveland:

Second-year QB David Carr shook off a hand injury and lit up Baltimore in a 37-33 upset, throwing for a career-high 351 yards and completing 7-for-9 on the game-winning drive. Considering the Ravens do have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, Carr’s emergence may be the start of something big since he didn’t lock in on any one receiver, completing passes to 10 different players as both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper topped the 100-yard mark. Browns head coach Mike Pettine confused rookie Marcus Mariota into multiple miscues and utilized his superb secondary well to earn his team their first win, so this should be an intriguing chess match. It remains to be seen whether Josh McCown returns from his concussion or Manziel keeps the QB job.

Indianapolis at Tennessee:

The Colts have been dominant against AFC South rivals throughout the entire Andrew Luck era, sporting a 16-2 record that includes a 13-game winning streak. He's never lost to the Titans, outscoring them 68-24 last season. Mariota will be out to change that, but he's nursing his first battle scars as a pro, suffering an injured ankle and numerous bumps and bruises after being tossed around in Cleveland. Tennessee's chances to pull off an upset would improve if they get back the services of TE Delanie Walker from a hand injury.

Atlanta at Dallas:

Staying afloat without Tony Romo begins at home against a Falcons team that has overachieved in opening 2-0. Can Brandon Weeden and a Dez Bryant-less receiving corps do enough to keep pace with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones? The Dallas coaching staff will be counted on to help manage the process and will earn their money here. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli won last week's game with help from the special teams, but will probably need a little help from that big offensive line that no longer has any room for error since Weeden lacks Romo's improvisational skills.

San Francisco at Arizona:

Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has thrown an seven touchdowns through two games and is the only QB that can be put on Tom Brady’s record-setting level thus far, so this is an opportunity to flex some muscle within the division. The 49ers got carved up in Pittsburgh after a strong opening performance, so this NFC West clash should give us a better indication of what to expect from this new-look defense after massive personnel turnover. New head coach Jim Tomsula will look to prevent the Cardinals from a 3-0 start by winning in Glendale for the third time in four years.

Chicago at Seattle:

Since Jay Cutler is unlikely to be healthy enough to play after straining his hamstring attempting to chase down the latest DB to pick him off, the Bears will have to ride Jimmy Clausen. Clausen started one game last season and had the Bears up 14-10 on Detroit in the fourth quarter before the Lions rallied. He hadn't started in a win since his rookie season in Carolina back in 2010 and may not have Alshon Jeffery to throw to if the All-Pro receiver can't make it back from his own hamstring injury. The winless Seahawks probably won't need Kam Chancellor for this one.

Buffalo at Miami:

Both defenses looked fearsome in the opening week and got a massive dose of humility in Week 2. The Bills took apart Luck in Week 1, but were no match for Brady at home despite getting top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus back from a one-game suspension. The Dolphins stifled Washington with their pressure but failed to record a sack against the Jaguars, who were the most sacked team in the NFL in 2014. Ndamakong Suh will look to be more involved in his home debut. One of these AFC East squads will be 1-2 when this is over, which should guarantee a contentious affair.

Denver at Detroit:

The Sunday night game provides another opportunity to dissect Peyton Manning’s game as he faces the most vulnerable defense he’s encountered in 2015 following wins over Baltimore and Kansas City. Counterpart Matthew Stafford can’t be looking forward to seeing Von Miller and Co. come into Ford Field after the beating he took in Minnesota last Sunday. Stafford had to have his chest and ribs x-rayed, but should be healthy enough to start.

Monday, Sept. 28

Kansas City at Green Bay:

QB Aaron Rodgers will try and extend an NFL-record interception-less streak at home to 19 games against a Chiefs secondary that will look to succeed where the decimated Legion of Boom failed. Despite the absence of top target Jordy Nelson, Rodgers continues to fire on all cylinders, but faces an improved KC defense fortified by emerging rookie corner Marcus Peters. Sack master Justin Houston gets to work against a vulnerable Packers offensive line, which makes this Monday night game very interesting.

[StarDust Bum]

Close Calls - Week 2

September 22, 2015

Each week a handful of NFL games go down to the wire not only on the scoreboard but relative to the pointspread. Here is a look at last week’s outcome impacting fourth quarters in Week 2 of the NFL season with a handful of games that were close to finishing with a different outcome.

Denver Broncos (+3) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (41½): The key Thursday night AFC West matchup was tied 17-17 entering the fourth quarter after Brandon McManus hit a 54-yard field goal. Early in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs reached the Denver 14-yard line before an interception, but on its next possession, Kansas City cashed in with a touchdown to lead by seven with less than three minutes on the clock. Peyton Manning turned in a brilliant drive with Emmanuel Sanders scoring with just 36 seconds on the clock, tying the game and spoiling the night for those on the ‘under’ as well. It looked like the game was headed to overtime, but on first down, Jamaal Charles fumbled for the fifth Kansas City turnover of the night and Bradley Roby returned it for the winning touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) 24, San Diego Chargers 19 (48): This key AFC battle was a one-point game well into the third quarter and the Chargers got a big stop late in the third forcing a short field goal that put the Bengals up 17-13 heading into the final frame. Cincinnati would connect early in the fourth for a touchdown to bring the lead to 11 points, but with just over four minutes to go, San Diego connected for a 40-yard touchdown pass. Down five, the Chargers opted to go for two in what was a huge play relative to the spread with the line at -3½ much of the week before sliding to -3. The Chargers completed the pass, but could not reach the end zone, leaving the Bengals in position to cover. The Chargers did force a punt to get the ball back, but wound up with an interception.

Atlanta Falcons (+2) 24, New York Giants 20 (50): The Giants led 13-10 at the half and moved that lead to 20-10 quickly in the second half. It looked like New York would add to that lead inside the 10-yard line on its next possession, but Eli Manning fumbled taking a sack to give the Falcons a huge stop. Off the turnover, the Falcons completed a 91-yard drive early in the fourth quarter to get within three points and then forced consecutive punts from the Giants. With just over a minute to go, the Falcons rushed in a touchdown to take the lead and the Giants did not get past midfield in the final minute, suffering a second straight painful loss with a blown late lead.

Oakland Raiders (+6) 37, Baltimore Ravens 33 (42): The underdog cover looked promising for the Raiders with a 30-20 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but the Ravens had tied the game by the seven-minute mark of the fourth. For a Raiders team that has done plenty of losing in the last decade, it was a familiar storyline and the Derek Carr was intercepted to hand the Ravens the ball already on the edge of field goal range with a chance to take the lead and possibly get past the number as well. Baltimore got within the Oakland 15-yard line, but the Raiders defense held as Baltimore cashed in a 31-yard field goal with just over two minutes to go, leaving Oakland still in position to cover. Derek Carr and the Raiders did even better completing perhaps the signature drive of the young quarterback’s career to date as Oakland found the end zone with 26 seconds to go for the outright win.

Green Bay Packers (-3) 27, Seattle Seahawks 17 (49½): The Packers took the early lead in the big NFC Championship rematch, up 13-3 at the half. Seattle stormed back in the third quarter with two touchdown drives within the span of just over three minutes to take a 17-13 lead as an underdog. The Packers trimmed the lead to one-point with a field goal but still trailed several minutes into the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers back in front with an 80-yard touchdown drive with less than 10 minutes to go and up by five the Packers went for two and succeeded, a key play given the spread that was at -3 to -4 throughout the week for the hosts.

On the next Seattle drive, Russell Wilson was intercepted by Jayrone Elliott who fumbled a few steps later with players on both teams jumping into the pile. Seahawks lineman Justin Britt emerged from the pile with the ball, but officials awarded the ball to Green Bay in a controversial call and while no replays showed a clear recovery for either team, the Packers held on to the key turnover. Green Bay settled for a field goal on that possession to push the lead to 10 points just after the two-minute warning and Seattle’s efforts for a backdoor cover ended with a Fred Jackson fumble just across midfield.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 2: Colts 0-2 start no fluke

You have to admire Chuck Pagano's fight. His Indianapolis Colts fell to the Jets at home 20-7 on Monday night, certain to fuel more talk that his days are numbered. Consider his post-game comments a pre-emptive strike.

“He has been dealing with that for three years now,” the Colts head coach said of the offensive line issues that have hindered QB Andrew Luck.. "He should be used to it."

Shots fired. Wait, who's he firing on? Luck, whose 28 turnovers are more than any QB in the league the past season-plus? Or GM Ryan Grigson, whose inability to surround Luck with capable bodyguards up front has bordered ineptitude.

The Colts, 11-5 in each of the last three seasons, openly talked Super Bowl in the offseason. Their role as Deflategate accusers almost made it seem as if they were cheated out of something in January's AFC Championship game. What if the Colts have simply seen their best days? Since that first half where the Patriots used doctored footballs, Indianapolis has been outscored 75-21.

Let the finger-pointing begin
Pagano is apparently going down swinging, but who on that team is going to join him? The offensive line is bad. Even with Frank Gore on board, it doesn't seem like Indy can find room to run without holding. Rookies line the defensive front. The secondary is banged up beyond recognition.

Indianapolis' saving grace is that it does have the luxury of playing in the AFC South, a division they've dominated to the tune of 13 consecutive victories and a 16-2 record, but those who bought in on Indianapolis as a Super Bowl contender must hope that Pagano's post-game comments don't have a divisive effect.

Rest assured, Grigson and Pagano will have a talk. Luck and his head coach, too. They'll grudgingly go forward knowing that the only solution lies in winning. That's where Indianapolis isn't alone.

You've undoubtedly run across one of those lists of teams that are 0-2 prominently displayed on TV graphics and social media. This season, they seem to be getting even more play due to all of the prominent teams mired in winless situations.

Two-time defending NFC champ Seattle is the headliner. Then there's preseason darling Philadelphia, a team many of you invested in to win a Super Bowl. Eli Manning has dragged the Giants on to the list. Ndamakong Suh-less Detroit makes an appearance. The Saints, hoping to rebound from what matched the worst season of Sean Payton's head coaching tenure, have fallen flat on their face to join the ranks. The Colts were on the list a year ago and rebounded as they undobutedly expect to this season.They're joined by Houston and Baltimore, both teams that expected to be in the playoff mix.

That's where the beauty lies entering Week 3 and going forward. Outside of Chicago, which faces a grim future with Jay Cutler injured and Jimmy Clausen forced into duty, every winless team in the league should be rightfully defiant, confident that they'll be able to turn things around despite 12.5 percent of the season already in the books. When you mix faith with desperation, you're bound to get some flammable situations where teams will wind up imploding. After all, not everyone will be able to get things fixed.

Eagles running back DeMarco Murray only touched the ball once in the entire fourth quarter against Atlanta and cameras caught him frustratingly demanding the ball after another empty possession. The fact his offensive line was swallowed alive by Dallas prevented him from the strong game he coveted against former teammates, rushing for 2 yards on 13 carries. It wasn't personal. The o-line helped Darren Sproles and Ryan Matthews lose four yards on two carries.

Now Chip Kelly has to figure out how to jump start the offense on the road against a Jets defense that just feasted on Luck, making his Eagles one of three winless teams squaring off against unbeatens. He'll need his run game to respond to keep New York's pass rush from further exposing Sam Bradford, currently right up there on the failed experiment list with corner Byron Maxwell and injured LB Kiko Alonso. Two games in, Kelly is on his way out of Philadelphia.

Matthew Stafford got roughed up and now has to face 2-0 Denver at home. New Orleans' Drew Brees may be unavailable due to a shoulder injury that clearly hindered him against Tampa Bay. Carolina's defense, provided it gets Luke Kuechly back, will prove a formidable challenge.

There will be a number of these 0-2 teams who wind up 0-3 and even more desperate, because only three teams have ever overcome such a catastrophic start to reach the postseason since the current 12-team playoff format took shape in 1990.

NFL Week 2 recap snapshot

Best games: 1. Broncos 31 Chiefs 24, 2. Raiders 37 Ravens 33, 3. Patriots 40, Bills 32

Worst games: 1. Cowboys 20 Eagles 10, 2. Steelers 43 49ers 18, 3. Cardinals 48 Bears 23

Best players: 1. Tom Brady: 38-59 466 yds 3 TD at Bills, 2. Antonio Brown: 9-195 yds 1 TD vs 49ers, 3. Aaron Rodgers: 25-33 249 yds 2 TD

Best plays: 1. Carolina QB Cam Newton somersaulted into the end zone for a 3-yr TD run to give his team a 17-10 lead, highlighting his Superman-like efforts in starting off 2-0 minus Kelvin Benjamin, 2. Broncos QB Peyton Manning hit Emmanuel Sanders in the end zone from 19 yards out to finish up 10-play 80-yard drive and quiet critics by tying up the Chiefs at Arrowhead, 3. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles fumbled after LB Brandon Marshall knocked the ball loose and safety Bradley Roby came up with the scoop-and-score to clinch a Denver win with just 27 seconds left.

Best coaching jobs: 1. Dallas' Jason Garrett not only saw his Cowboys dominate the Eagles physically in taking their heart in their own building. Surviving the injury to Tony Romo and stomping out a divisional rival minus Dez Bryant made for a tremendous win. 2. The Jets displayed an improved offense and a fearsome defense, making first-year head coach Todd Bowles look awfully good. 3. Washington's Jay Gruden won his way in a physical performance against St. Louis. The Rams looked flat, but a lot of the credit has to go to the head coach having the 'Skins ready to play.

Worst coaching jobs: 1. Kansas City's Andy Reid has to take responsibility for losing the Chiefs a game that never should've been close enough to cough up. 2. Kelly, as alluded to, isn't feeling much brotherly love at the beginning of year No. 3.3 (tie). Neither Indianapolis' Pagano nor St. Louis' Jeff Fisher had their teams prepared to fight back after being punched in the mouth. Both went down listlessly against beatable opponents.

Steam plays: Late action on the Raiders made sharps look smart, and they were also in on under wagers in Falcons/Giants and Saints/Bucs that came to fruition due to some good fortune, but there were a handful of whiffs too. Heavy action came in on the blown-out Bills, Eagles and 49ers, which made for a strong day all-around for Vegas sportsbooks.

Close calls and bad beats: The Thursday night game was a wild rollercoaster. If Kansas City had gotten a stop late, it would've wrapped up a cover and the UNDER 42.5. Due to Manning's heroics and Charles' fumble, Broncos-backers and those on the OVER prevailed.

Johnny Manziel's game-clinching bomb to Travis Benjamin delivered the OVER (41.5) and kept the Titans from mounting a potential game-tying drive. The Dolphins and Jaguars hung in the balance throughout the final quarter, but a 20-20 guaranteed the OVER 42.5. Jacksonville (+5.5) won late on a field goal as Miami failed to get stops. Baltimore (-6) had a chance to put away the Raiders in a shootout, but Joe Flacco failed to hit a wide open Steve Smith Sr. in the end zone for a TD with 2:19 left that potentially would've changed everything. Instead, they settled for a field goal, blowing the cover and, ultimately, the game.

Key injuries: Dallas QB Tony Romo (Broken clavicle, Out 8 weeks), Buffalo S Aaron Williams (Neck, week-to-week), Detroit QB Matthew Stafford (Chest, day-to-day), Chicago QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring, week-to-week), Saints QB Drew Brees (Shoulder, day-to-day), Philadelphia LB Kiko Alonso (Knee, out indefinitely), Philadelphia LB Mychal Kendricks (Hamstring, day-to-day), Atlanta RB Tevin Coleman (Ribs, Out multiple weeks), San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde (Concussion, day-to-day), N.Y. Giants DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Concussion, questionable), Miami RB Lamar Miller (Ankle, day-to-day), Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy (Ankle, questionable), Green Bay WR Davante Adams (Ankle, questionable), Tennessee RG Chance Warmack (Sprained knee, out at least 2 weeks)

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 22, 2015

THURSDAY, SEPT. 24

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
G-Men romped 45-14 over Skins in a Thursday game about this same time a year ago. NYG have now won and covered four straight in series, and Coughlin 10-5 last 15 as home chalk. Skins 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons.
Tech Edge: NYG, based on team and series trends.


SUNDAY, SEPT. 27
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at ST. LOUIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note Steel "over" 7-1 last 8 non-conf games. Rams "over" 17-9 last 26 at home.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
SD's Mike McCoy is 7-2 vs. spread in non-conf games, also 8-1 last nine "over" vs. NFC. Vikes 13-6 "under" last 19 since late 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lovie 6-3 as road dog since LY and note Bucs' back-and-forth spread pattern since LY's bye after week six. Bucs "under" 13-6 last 19 away. O'Brien 6-2 as chalk with Texans.
Tech Edge: Slight to Texans and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at N.Y. JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds no covers five of last six on board since late 2014. Chip Kelly "over" 11-6 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 5-12-1 vs. line since LY, 3-5-1 away. Panthers have won and covered four of last six meetings. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series. Saints "over" 12-6 last 18 reg season games, though Carolina "under" 8-2 last ten at home. Pan-thas 11-4-2 vs. line at Charlotte reg season since 2013.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "over," based on series and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Could be biggest NFL spread we see this season. Jags only 11-20-2 as dog for Gus Bradley. Belichick, however, 1-8 as DD chalk since 2012. Pats "over" 32-14 last 46 at Gillette.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy has won and covered last three and four of last five in series. Marvin Lewis 10-5-1 as reg season road dog since 2011. Cincy "under" 8-1 away LY but "over" in opener at Oakland. Ravens "under" 6-2 at home LY, also 35-7 SU at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on Cincy "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns 3-8 as chalk mark last 11 in role since late 2012. Brownies also "under" 21-11-1 at home since 2011. Raiders 7-6 vs. line last 13 away.
Tech Edge: Raiders and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans were 2-12-2 vs. line at Nashville the past two seasons. Also 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 vs. line last seven vs. Indy. Luck 8-3-1 as road chalk since 2012.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at DALLAS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs were 7-12-1 their last 20 on board as visitor in the Mike Smith era. Also no covers last four in second of back-to-backs on road but they are 2-0 SU and vs. spread TY. If Cowboys still chalk minus Romo, note 7-20 mark their last 27 at home in role.
Tech Edge: Falcons, if dog, based on Cowboys home chalk woes.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards now 10-3-1 last 14 vs. line at home after Saints win. Niners had been 31-13-4 vs. line in reg season 2011-13 before 2014 fade.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pete 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since 2012. Bears just 8-14-1 as road dog since 2011, also "over" 18-6 away since 2012.
Tech Edge: Seahawks and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rexy had covered last three and six of last eight vs. Miami while with Jets. Bills 3-1 SU and vs. line last four vs. Dolphins. Bills 7-2 as dog since LY, Philbin 4-7 as home chalk since 2013. "Unders" 5-0-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: Bills and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at DETROIT (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Broncos 21-12 vs. line as visitor since Manning arrived in 2012, Denver also 8-4 vs. spread against NFC that span. Lions just 6-7-1 vs. line last 14 at home, though Caldwell was 5-2-1 in role LY.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 28

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Andy is 5-3 as visiting dog past two years, 7-4 overall as dog. KC also "over" first two in 2015. Pack 7-1-1 as reg seas home chalk since LY and "over" 21-12 at Lambeau regular season since 2011.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on Pack "totals" trends.