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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Texans (0-1) @ Panthers (1-0)-- Houston already has QB controversy after Hoyer was yanked in loss to KC last week; Mallett came off bench and put 10 points up in garbage time. Texans won last six road openers but were a favorite in last five; they are 2-1 vs Carolina, winning 34-21 in only visit here, in '07. Carolina is 1-9-1 vs spread as favorite in home openers; under is 13-5 in their last 18. Last 2+ years, Texans are 0-6-1 as road favorites of 3 or less points. Panthers were 8-17 on third down, had three takeaways (+2) in win at Jacksonville last week. Last two years, Carolina is 7-2-2 as home favorite; since '07, 14-10-1 as home fave of 3 or less.
Buccaneers (0-1) @ Saints (0-1)-- Winston had tough time in NFL debut, tossing pick-6 on first pass; they were down 21-0 before his first completion. Saints won last seven series games, with three of last four by 3 or less points or in OT; Bucs lost last four visits here, with three losses by 11+ points. NO won six of last seven home openers (5-1-1 as a favorite in HO's)- eight of last 11 home openers stayed under total. Tampa lost last three and seven of last nine road openers; five of their last seven went over. Saints were 2-6 as home faves LY, after being 31-18 in that role from '07-'13. Since '09, Buccaneers are 25-19-1 as a road underdog.
49ers (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)-- Over last decade, team that lost the Thursday night season opener is 3-6-1 vs spread m its Week 2 game. Short week, long travel for Niner squad that ran ball for 230 yards in 20-3 win over Minnesota Monday night. Since '11, 49ers are 6-2 as non-divisional road underdogs. Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites last two years; under is 25-15 in their home games since '10. Pitt put up 464 total yards in loss at Foxboro last week; they're 11-1 in last 12 home openers, 7-3 vs spread when favored. Five of last six home openers stayed under. 49ers are 6-2 in last eight road openers; under is 4-1-1 in last six. Niner coach Tomsula won his first game as head coach, now comes back to where he grew up for this.
Lions (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)-- Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opening loss at San Diego; Rivers was 35-42/388 passing against them. Minnesota was dismal in Monday night loss at 49ers, giving up 230 rushing yards. Lions are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost four of last six visits here. Minnesota lost five of last seven home openers; three of last four went over total. Last four years, Vikings are 7-9-1 as a home favorite, 2-3 in division games. Detroit is 4-9 as road underdog since 2012; in Chargers' last three drives Sunday, they scored three TDs in row, gaining 172 yards on 21 plays. Lion defense faded late after scoring TD in second quarter.
Patriots (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)-- Pats are 21-2 in last 23 games vs Buffalo, 7-1 last eight games vs Rex Ryan; NE is 10-1 in last 11 visits here, winning last three by 24-2-15 points- they're 6-3 in last nine road openers. Super Bowl champ does well in first game following year, but over last 14 years, they're 2-12 vs spread in Week 2 tilt. Bills are 10-3 as home dogs since '11, 7-2 in last nine AFC East home games- they are 9-7 in games with spread of 3 or less points since '13. Taylor averaged 10-3 ypa in his first NFL start last week, upset win over Indy. Patriots were 7-11 on 3rd down last week; they're 22-13 in last 35 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Bears (0-1)-- Arizona is 13-3-1 under Arians in games where the spread was 3 or less points. Redbirds covered last seven road openers, going 5-2 SU; four of their last five road openers were decided by 4 or less points. Seven of Arizona's last eight road openers stayed under total. Chicago won six of last eight series games; home side lost last three meetings. Arizona won 41-21 in last visit here ('09). Bears ran ball for 189 yards in LW's loss to Packers, but scored only 10 points in three red zone drives- over last three years, Bears are 6-16-2 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. Arizona was stingy in red zone last week, allowing one TD on Saints' four drives since their 20.
Titans (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)-- Cleveland is 2-14 in home openers, 0-5 when they're favored. Browns (+2) upset Titans 29-28 LY, after trailing 28-10 at half. Browns won four of last six series games; home side lost six of last eight. Titans won four of last five visits here, last of which was in 2011. Over last 4+ years, Tennessee is 7-14-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Cleveland is 16-22-2 vs spread at home since '10- under is 21-10-1 in Browns home games since '11. Mariota had a great debut (13-16/185, 10.3 ypa); they were 4-4 in red zone, scored defensive TD. McCown had concussion last week; Manziel struggled in Swamp last week.
Chargers (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)-- San Diego won four of last five visits here, in a series where visitor won last three meetings. Since '12, Chargers are 12-6-1 as road underdogs- over is 24-16 in their road games since '10. Bolts covered last three road openers- five of their last eight went over. Bengals are 10-5-2 as home faves since '12; over is 11-5 in Cincy home games last two years. Bengals won four of last five home openers (under 6-1 in last seven); they waxed Oakland last week, while Chargers came back from 21-3 deficit at home to beat Lions-- Rivers was 35-42/388 passing. Since '07, Cincy is 24-13-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.
Rams (1-0) @ Redskins (0-1)-- Huge trap game for St Louis squad that upset the Seahawks last week; Rams blanked Washington 24-0 here LY, when Fisher sent out six guys for coin toss acquired in RGIII trade. Rams won five of last seven in series, winning two of last three here (average total 25.3). St Louis lost 12 of last 13 road openers (over 3-1 last four). Washington is 3-7 in last ten games as home underdog; since '07, they're 3-10-2 as non-divisional home dogs. Rams were one of two teams (Dallas) last week to win despite -2 or worse turnover margin- they ran punt back for TD. Washington gave up PR to Miami for game-losing TD.
Falcons (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)-- Giants need win here after poor management cost them win in Dallas Sunday night, but they've lost last three home openers, giving up 30 ppg. Big Blue won five of last six series games, with five of six decided by 10+ points; Atlanta lost last three visits here, by 3-22-10 points. Last 2+ years, Falcons are 5-10 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're on short week after Monday night win, when they blew 20-3 halftime lead, then kicked GW FG late. Giants allowed 356 passing yards in Dallas, allowing 356 PY in game where they had +3 TO ratio- could struggle vs Julio Jones, who caught nine balls for 141 yards with two TDs Monday night.
Ravens (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)-- Unsure of Carr's status (hand) here; McGloin led two garbage time TD drives last week. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four meetings by average score of 33-12; Ravens are here for first time since '09- they're 7-10 as road favorites since '11. Since 2010, Oakland is 9-15-1 as home underdog; seven of its last nine home games went over total. Ravens' only TD in Denver loss was scored by defense; they were outgained 219-173, got to Bronco red zone once, but didn't score. Baltimore was one of three teams not to score offensive TD last week (Broncos/Vikings). Raiders last series win: '03.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)-- Miami is trying to cover as road favorite for 2nd week in row; over last ten years, teams are 30-26 vs spread in this spot, but Miami is one of six NFL teams that hasn't been in this spot. Dolphins (-6) scored two defensive TDs in 27-13 win over Jax LY; they won last three vs Jaguars by 4-21-14 points. Since '12, Jaguars are 11-28-1 as home underdogs. Miami covered three of last four as road favorite. Jax turned ball over three times (-2) last week, gave up a defensive TD, but their defensive only allowed one TD- they scored only 10 points in three red zone drives. Under is 32-17 in Dolphin road games since '09, 21-12 in last 33 Jaguar home tilts.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1)-- Home side lost six of last seven games in rivalry that was intensified by Murray signing with Iggles as free agent. Dallas won last three visits here, all by 11+ points. Philly is 2-4 in last six home openers, 6-13 after losing as a favorite- they scored 30-34 points in two HOs under Kelly. Cowboys covered seven of last eight road openers; they're 9-3 as underdog in road opener, with five of last seven staying under total. Dallas needed miraculous comeback to nip Giants last week; Eagles rallied back from 20-3 halftime deficit but fell 26-24 in Atlanta; Bradford threw for 336 yards in Eagle debut, is now 18-31-1 as NFL QB.
Seahawks (0-1) @ Packers (1-0)-- Seattle won last three series games, winning OT game at home in playoffs LY, after Pack couldn't recover onside kick, but Hawks also lost last five visits to Lambeau, with two of those five playoff games. Since 2007, Packers are 35-20-2 as home favorites; they're 6-2 vs spread last eight home openers (7-1 SU), with last four going over total. Since '11, Seattle is 8-4-3 as road underdog; they gave up 297 passing yards to Foles last week- what will Rodgers do vs secondary weakened by Chancellor's absence? Pack won in Chicago last week after trailing 13-10 at half; Bears ran for 189 yards, were 11-17 on 3rd down.
Jets (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)-- Jets took advantage of Browns' lousy QB situation last week, getting five turnovers in 31-10 win, but over last three years, Indy is 6-0-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite. Colts are 10-7-1 as home favorites since '12, but covered only one of last five as a favorite in home opener. Jets won three of last four series games; two of four were playoff games; they're 3-2 in last five visits here. Since 2011, Jets are 9-14-2 as road underdogs, 2-11-2 outside the AFC East. Last five years, under is 24-16 in Colt home games. Not sure why Indy is letting Pagano coach as free agent, but it ain't helping- they had a -3 turnover ratio last week, lost to a QB making his first NFL start.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Texans (0-1) @ Panthers (1-0)-- Houston already has QB controversy after Hoyer was yanked in loss to KC last week; Mallett came off bench and put 10 points up in garbage time. Texans won last six road openers but were a favorite in last five; they are 2-1 vs Carolina, winning 34-21 in only visit here, in '07. Carolina is 1-9-1 vs spread as favorite in home openers; under is 13-5 in their last 18. Last 2+ years, Texans are 0-6-1 as road favorites of 3 or less points. Panthers were 8-17 on third down, had three takeaways (+2) in win at Jacksonville last week. Last two years, Carolina is 7-2-2 as home favorite; since '07, 14-10-1 as home fave of 3 or less.
Buccaneers (0-1) @ Saints (0-1)-- Winston had tough time in NFL debut, tossing pick-6 on first pass; they were down 21-0 before his first completion. Saints won last seven series games, with three of last four by 3 or less points or in OT; Bucs lost last four visits here, with three losses by 11+ points. NO won six of last seven home openers (5-1-1 as a favorite in HO's)- eight of last 11 home openers stayed under total. Tampa lost last three and seven of last nine road openers; five of their last seven went over. Saints were 2-6 as home faves LY, after being 31-18 in that role from '07-'13. Since '09, Buccaneers are 25-19-1 as a road underdog.
49ers (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)-- Over last decade, team that lost the Thursday night season opener is 3-6-1 vs spread m its Week 2 game. Short week, long travel for Niner squad that ran ball for 230 yards in 20-3 win over Minnesota Monday night. Since '11, 49ers are 6-2 as non-divisional road underdogs. Steelers are 7-5 as home favorites last two years; under is 25-15 in their home games since '10. Pitt put up 464 total yards in loss at Foxboro last week; they're 11-1 in last 12 home openers, 7-3 vs spread when favored. Five of last six home openers stayed under. 49ers are 6-2 in last eight road openers; under is 4-1-1 in last six. Niner coach Tomsula won his first game as head coach, now comes back to where he grew up for this.
Lions (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)-- Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opening loss at San Diego; Rivers was 35-42/388 passing against them. Minnesota was dismal in Monday night loss at 49ers, giving up 230 rushing yards. Lions are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost four of last six visits here. Minnesota lost five of last seven home openers; three of last four went over total. Last four years, Vikings are 7-9-1 as a home favorite, 2-3 in division games. Detroit is 4-9 as road underdog since 2012; in Chargers' last three drives Sunday, they scored three TDs in row, gaining 172 yards on 21 plays. Lion defense faded late after scoring TD in second quarter.
Patriots (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)-- Pats are 21-2 in last 23 games vs Buffalo, 7-1 last eight games vs Rex Ryan; NE is 10-1 in last 11 visits here, winning last three by 24-2-15 points- they're 6-3 in last nine road openers. Super Bowl champ does well in first game following year, but over last 14 years, they're 2-12 vs spread in Week 2 tilt. Bills are 10-3 as home dogs since '11, 7-2 in last nine AFC East home games- they are 9-7 in games with spread of 3 or less points since '13. Taylor averaged 10-3 ypa in his first NFL start last week, upset win over Indy. Patriots were 7-11 on 3rd down last week; they're 22-13 in last 35 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Bears (0-1)-- Arizona is 13-3-1 under Arians in games where the spread was 3 or less points. Redbirds covered last seven road openers, going 5-2 SU; four of their last five road openers were decided by 4 or less points. Seven of Arizona's last eight road openers stayed under total. Chicago won six of last eight series games; home side lost last three meetings. Arizona won 41-21 in last visit here ('09). Bears ran ball for 189 yards in LW's loss to Packers, but scored only 10 points in three red zone drives- over last three years, Bears are 6-16-2 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points. Arizona was stingy in red zone last week, allowing one TD on Saints' four drives since their 20.
Titans (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)-- Cleveland is 2-14 in home openers, 0-5 when they're favored. Browns (+2) upset Titans 29-28 LY, after trailing 28-10 at half. Browns won four of last six series games; home side lost six of last eight. Titans won four of last five visits here, last of which was in 2011. Over last 4+ years, Tennessee is 7-14-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Cleveland is 16-22-2 vs spread at home since '10- under is 21-10-1 in Browns home games since '11. Mariota had a great debut (13-16/185, 10.3 ypa); they were 4-4 in red zone, scored defensive TD. McCown had concussion last week; Manziel struggled in Swamp last week.
Chargers (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0)-- San Diego won four of last five visits here, in a series where visitor won last three meetings. Since '12, Chargers are 12-6-1 as road underdogs- over is 24-16 in their road games since '10. Bolts covered last three road openers- five of their last eight went over. Bengals are 10-5-2 as home faves since '12; over is 11-5 in Cincy home games last two years. Bengals won four of last five home openers (under 6-1 in last seven); they waxed Oakland last week, while Chargers came back from 21-3 deficit at home to beat Lions-- Rivers was 35-42/388 passing. Since '07, Cincy is 24-13-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.
Rams (1-0) @ Redskins (0-1)-- Huge trap game for St Louis squad that upset the Seahawks last week; Rams blanked Washington 24-0 here LY, when Fisher sent out six guys for coin toss acquired in RGIII trade. Rams won five of last seven in series, winning two of last three here (average total 25.3). St Louis lost 12 of last 13 road openers (over 3-1 last four). Washington is 3-7 in last ten games as home underdog; since '07, they're 3-10-2 as non-divisional home dogs. Rams were one of two teams (Dallas) last week to win despite -2 or worse turnover margin- they ran punt back for TD. Washington gave up PR to Miami for game-losing TD.
Falcons (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)-- Giants need win here after poor management cost them win in Dallas Sunday night, but they've lost last three home openers, giving up 30 ppg. Big Blue won five of last six series games, with five of six decided by 10+ points; Atlanta lost last three visits here, by 3-22-10 points. Last 2+ years, Falcons are 5-10 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they're on short week after Monday night win, when they blew 20-3 halftime lead, then kicked GW FG late. Giants allowed 356 passing yards in Dallas, allowing 356 PY in game where they had +3 TO ratio- could struggle vs Julio Jones, who caught nine balls for 141 yards with two TDs Monday night.
Ravens (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)-- Unsure of Carr's status (hand) here; McGloin led two garbage time TD drives last week. Baltimore is 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four meetings by average score of 33-12; Ravens are here for first time since '09- they're 7-10 as road favorites since '11. Since 2010, Oakland is 9-15-1 as home underdog; seven of its last nine home games went over total. Ravens' only TD in Denver loss was scored by defense; they were outgained 219-173, got to Bronco red zone once, but didn't score. Baltimore was one of three teams not to score offensive TD last week (Broncos/Vikings). Raiders last series win: '03.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)-- Miami is trying to cover as road favorite for 2nd week in row; over last ten years, teams are 30-26 vs spread in this spot, but Miami is one of six NFL teams that hasn't been in this spot. Dolphins (-6) scored two defensive TDs in 27-13 win over Jax LY; they won last three vs Jaguars by 4-21-14 points. Since '12, Jaguars are 11-28-1 as home underdogs. Miami covered three of last four as road favorite. Jax turned ball over three times (-2) last week, gave up a defensive TD, but their defensive only allowed one TD- they scored only 10 points in three red zone drives. Under is 32-17 in Dolphin road games since '09, 21-12 in last 33 Jaguar home tilts.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Eagles (0-1)-- Home side lost six of last seven games in rivalry that was intensified by Murray signing with Iggles as free agent. Dallas won last three visits here, all by 11+ points. Philly is 2-4 in last six home openers, 6-13 after losing as a favorite- they scored 30-34 points in two HOs under Kelly. Cowboys covered seven of last eight road openers; they're 9-3 as underdog in road opener, with five of last seven staying under total. Dallas needed miraculous comeback to nip Giants last week; Eagles rallied back from 20-3 halftime deficit but fell 26-24 in Atlanta; Bradford threw for 336 yards in Eagle debut, is now 18-31-1 as NFL QB.
Seahawks (0-1) @ Packers (1-0)-- Seattle won last three series games, winning OT game at home in playoffs LY, after Pack couldn't recover onside kick, but Hawks also lost last five visits to Lambeau, with two of those five playoff games. Since 2007, Packers are 35-20-2 as home favorites; they're 6-2 vs spread last eight home openers (7-1 SU), with last four going over total. Since '11, Seattle is 8-4-3 as road underdog; they gave up 297 passing yards to Foles last week- what will Rodgers do vs secondary weakened by Chancellor's absence? Pack won in Chicago last week after trailing 13-10 at half; Bears ran for 189 yards, were 11-17 on 3rd down.
Jets (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)-- Jets took advantage of Browns' lousy QB situation last week, getting five turnovers in 31-10 win, but over last three years, Indy is 6-0-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite. Colts are 10-7-1 as home favorites since '12, but covered only one of last five as a favorite in home opener. Jets won three of last four series games; two of four were playoff games; they're 3-2 in last five visits here. Since 2011, Jets are 9-14-2 as road underdogs, 2-11-2 outside the AFC East. Last five years, under is 24-16 in Colt home games. Not sure why Indy is letting Pagano coach as free agent, but it ain't helping- they had a -3 turnover ratio last week, lost to a QB making his first NFL start.
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