The Bum's National Football Leagues Trends-News- Picks !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

10:20 PM Minnesota -2.5 2402 57.68% San Francisco +2.5 1762 42.32% View View

7:10 PM Philadelphia -3 2707 64.13% Atlanta +3 1514 35.87% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

10:20 PM Minnesota 41.5 1454 50.59% San Francisco 41.5 1420 49.41% View View

7:10 PM Philadelphia 55 2046 65.53% Atlanta 55 1076 34.47% View View

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Philadelphia -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Atlanta - Under 55 500 *****



MINN/SF GAME POSTED LATER......

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, September 14
Eagles @ Falcons-- Philly won last six road openers, winning SU as dog last two years; three of their last five were decided by 3 or less points. Under Kelly, Eagles are 9-7 vs spread on road, 11-4 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Falcons won last two vs Philly 35-31/30-17; average total in last three series games is 53.7. Over is 11-5 in Eagle road games under Kelly. Atlanta is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less; they're 9-5 as home dog since '08. Falcons went 10-22 last two years so they made change on bench; new OC Kyle Shanahan is familiar with Eagles from his days in Washington.

Vikings @ 49ers-- Peterson back for Minnesota; he last played in LY's opener. Lot of changes with 49ers, few for better; they were 44-19-1 under Harbaugh. 11 of 22 starters from LY are gone now. Niners won last four openers and scored 28+ in all four- they're home underdog for first time since 2011. Home side won 10 of last 11 Viking-Niner games; Minnesota lost eight of last nine visits here; they're road favorite for first time since '12, 12-5 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less. Vikings are 4-10 in last 14 road openers, with eight of last 11 staying under total. Since 2007, 49ers are 3-11-3 as an underdog of 3 or less points; 11 of their last 16 home games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)six most popular picks in Week 1

T6)-- Colts and Vikings, 347 entrants picked at least one of these teams. L-?

5) Packers 380-- Lot of faith in Aaron Rodgers. W

4) Jets 381-- Not a lot of faith in anyone on the Browns. W

3) Rams 474-- Almost fell off my chair when I saw this number. W

2) Cardinals 589-- 300 more entrants in this contest this year than last, and last year had been the all-time record. W

1) Dolphins 664-- Washington is seen as a league-wide joke. W (5-1)


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up NFL Opening Day.........

We overreact to Week 1 results; the offseason is so long, we look forward to the Week 1 games from the time the schedule comes out in the spring, but once we see the final scores today, then either panic or euphoria sets in and neither is warranted.

13) Titans 42, Buccaneers 14-- By time Jameis Winston got his first completion, his Bucs were down 21-nil; Winston's first NFL pass was a pick-6. Last NFL QB whose first pass was a pick-6? Brett Favre, while playing for the Atlanta Falcons. Mariota had a glorious debut for the Titans; maybe his coaches are just better, setting him up to succeed. Bucs have two rookies on offensive line, too. Tough to win that way.

12) Broncos 19, Ravens 13-- Each team's defense scored a TD, neither offense did, as Peyton Manning looked 39 years old, averaging 3.4 ypa. Total yardage in this game was 219-173. For the whole game. Denver has short week, long road trip this week, with a Thursday game at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.

11) Rams 34 Seahawks 31 OT-- .Each team ran a punt back for a TD; Seattle had a defensive TD and scored 18 straight points in 4th quarter., but Foles led tying drive in last 2:00, then Seahawks started OT with a flubbed pooch kick that looked like a bad onside kick and Rams got ball near midfield, kicked a FG.

Game ended when Lynch was stuffed on 4th-and-1 in Ram terrritory. Of seven teams Sunday who were -2 or worse in turnovers, only Rams/Cowboys won.

10) Packers 31, Bears 23-- Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last six in row, five by 7+ points. Rodgers averaged 8.2 ypa without Nelson, as James Jones stepped in after being re-signed and caught two TDs. Chicago converted 11 of 17 on 3rd down, which is really good, but scored only 10 points on three red zone drives.

9) Chiefs 27, Texans 20-- In Hard Knocks, Houston chose Brian Hoyer as QB over Ryan Mallett, in a not-too-decisive way, then Mallett "overslept" practice the next day, so now Bill O'Brien has a full-fledged QB controversy after Mallett came off the bench to direct a couple of garbage time scoring drives. This game was 27-9 at half; Travis Kelce looked like Kellen Winslow Sr in the first quarter, catching two TDs.

8) Jets 31, Browns 10-- Cleveland is now 1-16 in season openers, as QB McCown was knocked goofy and fumbled while trying to score a TD. Manziel came on in relief, but he hadn't practiced much lately and it showed-- he was 13-24/182 with an INT and a TD pass. Excellent start to the Todd Bowles era in the Swamp.

7) Bills 27, Colts 14-- I'm going to beat this to death a little, because it is important, I think. Tyrod Taylor was an average (at best) college QB, but he sat on an NFL bench for four years, learned his profession, got better at it and now that he finally got his chance to start a game, he excelled, averaging 10.3 ypa and running for 41 yards. It is becoming evident (see Winston, Jameis) that the best way to develop a QB is to let him sit and learn but no one has any patience anymore. Too bad.

As for Marcus Mariota's debut, which was stellar, we shall see. Still think they would be better off playing Mettenberger this year and letting Mariota observe for a while, but that sounds stupid now after the way Mariota played in Tampa today.

6) Dolphins 17, Redskins 10-- Miami shut Washington out in second half, scored winning TD on a punt return in 4th quarter. NFL-wide, defense/special teams scored nine TDs this week (so far); teams with non-offensive TDs are 5-4, but two of the losers (Seattle/Baltimore) also gave up a non-offensive TD, so it is really 3-2.

5) Panthers 20, Jaguars 9--Heading into the Monday night games, favorites are 8-5-1 this week; over is 9-5. In this game, teams were in red zone a combined six times, with two TDs, two FGs and two empty trips.

4) Cardinals 31, Saints 19-- Arizona is 14-3 at home under Bruce Arians, who didn't become an NFL head coach until he was 60, which means he came very close to never becoming one. Yardage in this game was 427-408, but Saints were lame in red zone, as they seemed to miss departed TE Jimmy Graham.

3) Chargers 33, Lions 28-- Around 5:00 Sunday, I sent this text to a buddy: "Lions are killing San Diego"; from that point on, Chargers scored 30 consecutive points and hung on after an onside kick in last minute for the win. Rivers was 35-42/388 passing as Bolts racked up 28 first downs, converting 6-11 on third down. Detroit is now 4-10 as road dogs since 2012, 5-11 in last 16 non-divisional road games. No bueno.

2) Bengals 33, Raiders 13-- Cincinnati is only team in NFL history to make playoffs four years in a row but not win any playoff games in those four years. That said, they ended an 0-10 drought in O.Co Coliseum here with emphasis, KO'ing Derek Carr with a hand injury. Good start for Marvin Lewis' team.

1) Cowboys 27, Giants 26-- Romo led last-minute comeback fueled by awful clock management by Giants and their $84M quarterback. Dallas is now 8-25 vs spread as home favorites since '10, 3-10 in divisional games; they covered once in last seven tries as a favorite in home opener- they lose Dez Bryant (foot) for 4-6 weeks as they head into Pihilly this week, but this was a big win for Dallas.

[StarDust Bum]

SECOND HALF OF THE DOUBLE HEADER:


Minnesota - 10:20 PM ET Minnesota -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Francisco - Under 41.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 9/15/15 )

14 - 11 GOING INTO WEEK # 2

*****.......................................... 3 - 3
double play....................................9 - 5
triple play......................................1 - 3
blow out........................................1 - 0
gom..............................................0 - 0
goy.............................................. 0 - 0
totals........................................... 6 - 6 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

Going into Thursday Night Football

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Opening Line Report Week 2: Packers faves over Seahawks

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks.

Highlighting the Week 2 schedule is a battle of NFC heavyweights on Sunday night, in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Two-time defending NFC champ Seattle travels to the currently unfrozen tundra to face a Green Bay team surely looking for some payback.

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks. Seattle then went on to a heart-wrenching 28-24 Super Bowl loss as a 1-point pup to New England.

In their respective season openers, the Seahawks rallied with 18 fourth-quarter points to force overtime, but lost 34-31 at St. Louis as 3.5-point favorites, while the Packers bested host Chicago 31-23 as 6-point chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tabbed Green Bay a 3.5-point fave over Seattle.

“This budding rivalry just keeps getting better,” Lester told Covers. “Seattle’s offensive line issues were apparent in Week 1, but Green Bay doesn’t quite have the firepower St. Louis does along the defensive line. Again, two teams that rate about the same, but we know Lambeau Field will be starving for a victory against this Seahawks squad.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, set the Pack at -3.

“They also met to open the season last year, and Seattle won at home convincingly (36-16),” Lester said. “The Seahawks rarely lose at home, but the road hasn't been quite as friendly. Green Bay, Wisconsin, is about as strong a home field as you'll find in the NFL.”


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4/OTB)

Dallas could quickly learn what it lost by not re-signing running back DeMarco Murray, who will line up in Philadelphia’s backfield in an NFC East clash.

Some books have this game at Philadelphia -4, with news that Dallas WR Dez Bryant is out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, while most places have this game off the board as of Monday morning. Books estimate his value between one and 1.5 points to the Cowboys' pointspreads.

The Cowboys opened their season by piling up a boatload of yards (436) and a boatload of costly turnovers (three), but somehow rallied in the final minute to upend the New York Giants 27-26. The Boys failed to cash, going off as a 7-point chalk.

The Eagles, meanwhile, still haven’t kicked off their season, playing in a Monday night game at Atlanta.

Avello expected to set the number around 2.5 – before news of Bryant’s injury got out.

“It's only Week 2 and things may change, but these two appear to be the ones that will be competing for the division crown,” Avello said. “Home-field advantage hasn't meant much the last two years in this rivalry, as each team has lost at home and won on the road.”

Lester was figuring on a field-goal pointspread, but spoke too soon when it came to Bryant’s broken foot.

“If there are no major injuries in either teams’ Week 1 games, we will look to make Philadelphia around 3-point chalk,” Lester said before the conclusion of Sunday night’s game. “It’s a case of two of the most public teams we have, and they look pretty even on paper, so we’ll account for the Eagles’ home-field edge. We’ll have to set the total extremely high to attract under bettors.”


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)

The defending Super Bowl champion Pats come in with extra rest after dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21, though they failed to cash as 7.5-point closing chalk in the Thursday night season opener. Tom Brady, who a week earlier had his four-game suspension rescinded, lit up the Pittsburgh defense, completing 25 of 32 passes for 288 yards and four touchdowns – three to tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Buffalo, in its first game under new coach Rex Ryan, was surprisingly dominant in a 27-14 victory over Indianapolis as a 1-point home underdog. The Bills led 24-0 midway through the third quarter and didn’t let the Colts score until the final minute of that quarter.

“Another semi-rivalry that’s been dominated by the favorite, but one where the books can be tossed out,” Lester said. “Of course, the Bills will be a trendy pick this season, as we took a ton of action on them in Week 1. And of course, they delivered. The Rex Ryan hype machine is well-oiled, so again, I expect the squares to be on the Pats and the sharps to be on the home dog. We’ve already adjusted down to +1.”

Said Avello, “The Bills and Rex Ryan got the start they were looking for and now can prove they are contenders for at least the AFC East. They've only beat the Pats a couple of times over the past 10 years, but they should be well prepared for this one.”


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

The Broncos, under new coach Gary Kubiak, had an extremely pedestrian offensive showing in their opener against Baltimore, but their defense was stout. Denver got a pick-6 for its only touchdown and another interception to end a Ravens threat in the waning seconds, notching a 19-13 home win laying 4.5 points.

The Chiefs scored all of their points in the first half, then held off Houston for a 27-20 win as a 1-point road fave. Kansas City has dropped six in a row SU (2-4 ATS) in its AFC West rivalry with Denver.

“It’s been a one-sided rivalry recently, but Kansas City always keeps things competitive,” Lester said. “We expect the public players to back the Broncos, but wiseguy money showed up early on the home dog, moving the spread to -3 shortly after we opened. The over will certainly be a popular play, but I’d take a long look at playing the under.”

Avello opened the Chiefs at -2.5.

“Against the Ravens, Manning and company played like it was the end of the season, and his arm appeared to be tired,” he said. “The Chiefs have dropped six straight to the Broncos and have only been the favorite once since Manning arrived in Denver.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/17/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 85-49 ATS (+31.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 167-128 ATS (+26.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 0-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-142 ATS (-53.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (1 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (0 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 9/20/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/21/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 17

8:25 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver


Sunday, September 20

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CHICAGO
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CAROLINA
Houston is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
San Diego is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Cincinnati is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games at home
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games at home

8:30 PM
NY JETS vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
Indianapolis is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets


Monday, September 21

8:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games ,at home
NY Giants are 3-9-1 SU in their last 13 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Line Watch: Window closing on Chiefs' Thursday night spread

If you like KC, it might be a good idea to jump now before oddsmakers pile on another half-point.

Spread to bet now

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

It wasn’t exactly Willie Mays falling down in the outfield during his final season, but Bronco bettors have to be a little concerned about what they saw out of Peyton Manning in the opener – 24 for 40, no TDs, 1 INT. At home.

Eerily similar to the numbers PM put up in Denver’s playoff loss to the Colts last season. And now Manning is getting only a few days of rest before a road game against the pumped-up Chiefs.

Does KC actually have a QB advantage in this one? This one opened at KC -2.5 and is now at 3. If you like K.C., it might be a good idea to jump now before oddsmakers pile on another half-point.


Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Repeat after me: Week 1 is only one week.

The Jets looked dominant against a crummy Browns team, and the Colts drew the tough assignment of playing in Buffalo last Sunday. This same game played just about at any point last season would carry a line in the vicinity of 13-14 points. Two factors are keeping this spread as tight as it is – the way each team played last week, and NY money on the Jets.

Suggestion here is to hang tight and wait to see if heavier money either way moves the line either way just before kickoff.


Total to watch

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (40.5)

Bill O’Brien has the unenviable task of trying to win NFL games without a top-level quarterback, and even with a good defense that’s like spending all week pushing a boulder up a hill only to see it come crashing down in 15 minutes on Sunday afternoon.

Now O’Brien says he won’t even reveal which former Patriot backup (Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet) will start in Carolina.

Until Houston can get its offense untracked, Texan bettors can expect to see low totals all season – even against a weak schedule and in a soft AFC South.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 1: Eagles grounded by Parkey

After it was over, Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly expressed his continued confidence in kicker Cody Parkey.

Following a soul-crushing 26-24 loss in Atlanta, the belief here is that misplaced confidence is undoubtedly his greatest mistake on a night where he was often second-guessed.

Kelly, notoriously stubborn, has already made it quite clear during his tenure as Eagles coach that they’re going to win or lose his way. They’re going to adhere to his methods, some rather unorthodox, and they’re going to ride with his decisions.

If he’s going to stick with his struggling kicker, it’s probably going to come back to bite Philly again at some point, likely sooner than later.

Archives (2015)8-17-20158-24-20159-8-20159-13-2015Kelly makes right choice with FG call
In the fourth quarter of a game where they trailed 20-3 at the half, Kelly’s team had fought all the way back to take a 24-23 lead but found themselves down two points as they looked for their fourth consecutive second-half scoring drive. New QB Sam Bradford had found a rhythm as the Eagles protection improved and drove the offense from their own 24-yard-line to inside the Falcons 30 with less than 4:00 remaining. Despite all the success Philly had in the second half with their screen game and short passes, Kelly handed the ball off twice to Ryan Matthews, who managed only three yards and left the team with a 4th-and-1 situation.

"Obviously he felt good about the kick right there. They had just stuffed us on 3rd-and-1,” said Bradford. “That’s the bigger issue. If we convert on 3rd-and-1, we’re not even talking about 4th-and-1."

Kelly wrestled with going for it, but came to his senses. With a makeable field goal available to his team as an option and the 2-minute warning up ahead, he sent the kicking team in. Kelly will be the subject of criticism for not rolling the dice, particularly since DeMarco Murray only touched the ball once in the entire fourth quarter, but he made the right decision. It was the same one new Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn had just made, taking the lead as opposed to going for it on 4th-and-3.

The difference? Quinn’s faith in his kicker wasn’t misplaced. Veteran Matt Bryant made his fourth field goal in as many attempts and gave his Falcons back the lead.

Parkey, who some feel was rushed on to the field, affecting his delicate process, pushed a 44-yard field goal attempt wide right. The truth is that while the decision to send the field goal unit out there took 13 seconds, Parkey set his feet and was ready to go with six ticks on the clock and the snap was made with almost four seconds remaining. These are professionals. Everyone executed their jobs but the kicker.

“There's no rhyme or reason to missing. I'm human and I missed. Don't know what to tell you,” Parkey told reporters afterward. “Perfect snap, perfect hold. Obviously I didn't help us win today. It's my fault."

Owning it is noble, but it does nothing to alleviate the bottom line. Parkey has been dealing with a groin injury throughout training camp. He cost them their biggest game of the season in 2014, a 27-24 loss to Washington that took the playoffs out of the equation, by missing from 46 and 33 yards. So, yes, while he set a rookie scoring record with 150 points and wound up in the Pro Bowl, Kelly should have already contemplated a move in the kicking game on the flight home.

Parkey missed a 34-yarder and an extra point in the preseason opener, to which Kelly ironically said, “I wouldn’t push the panic button right now.” He missed another kick in the second game and then sat the last two contests out to rest his injury. While he made no excuses post-game, his inaccuracy is of great concern, especially with extra points pushed back and a key divisional contest against Dallas scheduled later this week.

Kelly will take heat for not putting the ball in Murray’s hands more often. Some will scream about the disparity between runs and passes, since Bradford put the ball up 52 times and Murray, Matthews and Darren Sproles split 16 carries. Nevermind that the screen game and short-passing attack is an extension of the run game, but since the Eagles lost to a team they were favored against, all bets are off. Every criticism is suddenly more valid because his kicker failed to do his job by connecting on a 44-yarder in a dome.

The Eagles got the ball back late, but Jordan Matthews let a ball go through his hands, ultimately resulting in a game-ending interception. It was an emotional ending. A franchise that picked up significant steam in the preseason as money poured in on them due to an impressive start let a city that is starving for a winner down with a resounding series of thuds. The microscopes came out and everyone has had an opinion.

Kelly is in the third year of a controversial tenure where he’s been accused of micro-managing and veiled racism among a list of grievances from those who feel he’ll be the latest high-profile college coach to fail in the pros. He’s won a rather public power struggle with former GM Howie Roseman, taking control over personnel decisions. It seems like it’s time for him to make good use of it.

The 2015 season started poorly for Philadelphia because the kicker failed to do his job, not the head coach. Since Kelly is now also the de facto general manager, it’s time to ease the burden on his coach and get a kicker in there healthy enough to come through when it matters most.

Regarding Parkey, it’s time to push the panic button.

NFL Week 1 recap snapshot

Best games: 1. Rams 34 Seahawks 31 (OT), 2. Cowboys 27, Giants 26, 3. Falcons 26 Eagles 24

Worst games: 1. Bengals 33 Raiders 13, 2. Titans 42 Bucs 14, 3. 49ers 20 Vikings 3

Best players: 1. Marcus Mariota, Titans: 13-16 209 yds 4 TD, 2. Tony Romo, Cowboys: 36-45 356 yds 3 TDs, 3. Philip Rivers, Chargers: 35-42 404 yds 2 TD

Best plays: 1. Romo finds Jason Witten for GW TD w/7 seconds left after dropping the snap to beat NYG, 2. Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry breaks Washington hearts with a 69-yard fourth-quarter punt return for TD to snap a 10-10 tie, 3. (Tie) Broncos CB Aqib Talib returned a Joe Flacco interception 51 yards for the go-ahead TD & safety Darian Stewart made a game-saving pick in the end zone with 28 seconds left, pulling the ball away from Ravens TE Crockett Gilmore.

Best coaching jobs: 1. San Francisco's Jim Tomsula pulled off a 20-3 home upset of Minnesota in a game his 49ers unexpectedly dominated physically. That's how you replace a Jim Harbaugh. 2. The Titans aided Mariota's first day on the job brilliantly, so Ken Whisenhunt and his staff imposed their will on the road and deserve credit. 3. After blowing a massive lead and being forced to play OT, Rams coach Jeff Fisher found a way to keep his team's head up and focused in engineering a huge upset of divisional rival Seattle.

Worst coaching jobs: 1. It doesn't matter whether the blame lies on Eli Manning or head coach Tom Coughlin, handing over upset wins on the road against a division rival is never a good look. That's what happened in Dallas, where the New York Giants imploded both mentally and physically to prevent a 1-0 start. 2. The buzzards are already circling Chuck Pagano, who did nothing to dispel critics as his Colts sputtered in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo.3. Bill O'Brien's decision to ride with Brian Hoyer too long when he was carelessly holding the ball too long and turning it over at home against Kansas City dug his Texans too large a hole for Ryan Mallett to dig out of.

Steam plays: Totals plays backing the OVER in Bills-Colts, Redskins-Dolphins and Eagles-Falcons. They were also on the wrong side of UNDER calls in Seahawks-Rams and Browns-Jets, which pushed at 41 or lost depending on when you got in on it. Sharps were all over Buffalo's "upset" of the Colts, which ended up closing as a pick'em.

Close calls and bad beats: The Monday night game could've gone either way until Kelly made his decision to send out Parkey. The majority of the public was on Philly -3 and the over 55, so seeing the kicker trot out there down 26-24 as opposed to going for it on 4th-and-1 elicited one collective groan. The Packers held on at -6.5/7 with a 31-23 win that wasn't clinched until they recovered the onside kick with :33 left. Clay Matthews intercepted Jay Cutler at the 12-yard-line with 3:41 to go to protect the lead and both teams added touchdowns to produce the OVER in the final minute when Cutler hit Martellus Bennett for a 24-yard score on 4th & 8.

The Chargers (-3.5) won and covered despite falling behind Detroit 21-3. Rivers led the comeback with 30 consecutive points and Chargers-backers started breathing sighs of relief when Danny Woodhead put them up 33-21 with 6:08 to go. Week 1 began with the Steelers rescuing a push, or in some cases a cover at +7.5, when Ben Roethlisberger found Antonio Brown on a perfect pass to the corner of the end zone with seconds remaining. Considering the bulk of public money was on New England, Vegas sportsbooks dodged a bullet there.

Key injuries: Baltimore LB Terrell Suggs (Knee, OFY), Dallas WR Dez Bryant (Broken foot, out 6-8 weeks), Denver RB CJ Anderson (Foot, Expected to play Week 2), N.Y. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie (ACL sprain, week-to-week), Oakland QB Derek Carr (Hand, week-to-week), Indianapolis WR T.Y. Hilton (Knee bruise, week-to-week), Arizona RB Andre Ellington (Knee, Out 3 weeks), Carolina LB Luke Kuechly (Concussion, week-to-week), N.Y. Jets LB Lorenzo Mauldin (Concussion, questionable), Cleveland QB Josh McCown (Concussion, week-to-week), Washington WR DeSean Jackson (Hamstring, out 3-4 weeks), Oakland S Nate Allen (Torn ACL, OFY), Oakland S Charles Woodson (Shoulder, out indefinitely)

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons sign veteran OT Jake Long

September 15, 2015

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The Atlanta Falcons have signed offensive tackle Jake Long, adding more experience to a rebuilt line.

The signing was announced by coach Dan Quinn on Tuesday.

Long was cut by the Rams in a salary cap move in March. He has had two surgeries to repair torn ligaments in his right knee the last two years while with St. Louis. He has 96 career starts since going first overall in the 2008 draft to Miami.

If fully recovered, Long could push Ryan Schraeder for the starting job at right tackle or play behind Schraeder and left tackle Jake Matthews.

Adam Levitre started at left guard in Monday night's 26-24 win over the Eagles after being acquired from Tennessee on Sept. 4. Center Mike Person and right guard Chris Chester also are new starters.

The Falcons waived safety Charles Godfrey.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 2

September 16, 2015

THURSDAY, SEPT. 17


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
DENVER at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Manning 6-0 SU and 4-2 vs. line against Chiefs since 2012. Broncos 14-8 vs. spread last 22 as regular season visitor. Eight of last nine also "under" in this series despite Denver's "over" trends in recent years.

Tech Trend: Broncos and "under," based on series trends.


SUNDAY, SEPT. 20

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
HOUSTON at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Houston 5-2 vs. spread mark LY for O'Brien after loss. Carolina has not covered second game on schedule in past four years. Panthers "under" 13-4 last 17 at home.

Tech Trend: "Under" and Texans, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints lost SU and failed to cover last five at home in 2014, a departure from previous Superdome spread form under Sean Payton. Saints have won last four SU at home vs. Bucs and 3-1 vs. line in those. Payton 4-10 as chalk in 2014 and failed to cover both vs. Lovie.

Tech Trend: Slight to Bucs, based on recent Saints woes.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
SAN FRANCISCO at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After departing from an extended "over" trend at home during 2012-13, the "over" at Heinz Field roared back to a 6-2 mark LY. Niners, however, "under" 5-11 in 2014. Off SU loss, Tomlin 4-1 vs. line LY.

Tech Trend: Slight to "over," based on Steelers' extended home "totals" trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Zimmer 10-6 vs. line LY and Vikes on 15-7 spread run last 22 since late 2013 (prior to SF). Vikes also "under" 11-6 last 17 since late 2013. Lions only 2-7 vs. line away in reg. season for Caldwell, now 8-20-1 last 28 away reg season.

Tech Trend: Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills have only beaten Pats SU three times in last 23 games, but did win regular season finale LY and have covered 3 of last 5 in series. "Overs" 7-3 last 10 meetings. Pats "over" 28-12 on road in reg. season since 2010. But Rex Ryan has covered last four and five of last six vs. Belichick. Bill just 2-7 vs. spread last nine as visiting chalk.

Tech Trend: Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ARIZONA at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Arians is 11-5 vs. line on road in reg season with Big Red, counting interim with Colts in 2012 he's 15-6 vs. spread last 21 away in reg season. Fox had a 16-8 reg season spread mark as host with Denver past three years, though Bears only 5-16-2 vs. spread last 23 at Soldier Field.

Tech Trend: Cards, based on team trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns 3-6 as chalk past two seasons and now on 1-7 spread skid. Also "under" 40-24-1 since 2011.

Tech Trend: "Under" and slight to Titans, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
With exception of 6-0 mark in role in 2013, Cincy has been subpar as home chalk for most of the Marvin Lewis era. Bolts 12-6-1 as road dog since 2012.

Tech Trend: Chargers, based on team trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams just 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons after Fisher was 7-1 in mark in role in 2012. But Rams did win 24-0 at FedEx LY. Skins on 7-18 spread run, 10-24 last 34 on board since late 2012.

Tech Trend: Rams, based on Redskins woes.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ATLANTA at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli 7-4 as home chalk the past two years. Falcs entered 2015 on 4-10 spread skid last 14 as true visitor.

Tech Trend: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
BALTIMORE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Raiders "over" 7-2 at home since LY, Ravens "over" 8-4 last 12 away.

Tech Trend: "Over," based on recent "totals" trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Philbin just 8-13 as chalk the past three seasons, also "under" 8-4 last 12 away. Gus Bradley 3-12-1 as home dog since 2013, Jags 8-24-1 as home dog since 2010. Also "under" 22-12 last 34 at home since late 2010.

Tech Trend: "Under" and slight to Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys have won and covered last three at Philly. Jerry Jones 11-4 as road dog past three seasons (4-0 LY) and covered 8 of 9 away from Arlington LY. Cowboys also "over" 11-2 last 13 as reg season visitor. Chip "over" 6-2 at home LY.

Tech Trend: "Over" and Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
SEATTLE at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pete Carroll 9-2-1 as dog since 2012 (7-1-1 of that coming in 2012). Pack however 6-2-1 as home chalk LY. Last three meetings at Seattle all won SU by Seahawks including 2012 controversy and 2014 NFC title. Pack "over" 8-1 last nine reg. season at Lambeau Field.

Tech Trend: "Over" and slight to Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 21

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Colts 29-18-2 vs. spread in reg. season since Luck (and Pagano) arrived in 2012. Also 8-2-1 last 11 as Lucas Oil Stadium chalk and 8-1-1 vs. line since 2013 off SU loss. Jets slumped as road dog in Rexy's final years, just 9-15-1 last 25 reg. season in role.
Tech Trend: Colts, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Handicapping Week 2

September 16, 2015


Transitioning from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFL

As usual, the NFL opening weekend was jam packed with storylines, highlight performances, and major surprises.

Defending champion New England & Tom Brady dominated Pittsburgh on opening night, Bills’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor and Titans’ rookie QB Marcus Mariota were sensational in upset wins, while St. Louis and San Francisco also pulled out improbable victories. Most experts had written off the 49ers’ chances after an offseason of transition. Speaking of being written off, how about that amazing 4th quarter comeback by the Cowboys on Sunday night against New York?

It was certainly an exciting start to the season. Of course, for our purposes, as we look ahead as bettors, we are most interested in how the Week 1 results can be used to turn into Week 2 profits. That’s where this article comes in, as we have analyzed numerous Week 1 to Week 2 transitional situations in the NFL to uncover some highly profitable systems to utilize in the coming weekend.

Before getting into the top Week 2 systems and plays however, let’s theorize as to why some of this logic might be successful. First off, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may be starting to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may be thinking too highly of their own games. The betting public and media glorifies this type of thinking, and expects that what they just saw in Week 1 is the new standard.

Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of having to balance what just happened with what could/should happen in the follow-up week.

In our opinion, these systems come as a result of bookmakers not wanting to over-adjust. They have a tendency to do this in college football and it opens up a number of unwarranted early season value plays.

In the pro’s, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize that they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result. They are forced to wait out the first few weeks of any given season in hopes that everything balances out.

Think of this explanation as you read through each system, and trust in the ones that you think make the most sense.

In all there are 22 different angles, each with a winning percentage of at least 60%.

1) Week 2 teams playing as favorites or underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 28-6 SU & 24-7-3 ATS (77.4%) since '03 (+16.3 units, R.O.I.: 52.5%, Rating: 8*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, INDIANAPOLIS, GREEN BAY, & CHICAGO (note: SD & CIN cancel each other out)

Analysis: Over the last two seasons, this system is a solid 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS with five of six teams winning and covering their respective pointspread handily a year ago. It seems that these 30-point teams may have overachieved in Week 1 and are naturally due for a letdown, or an overinflated line in Week 2.

2) Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 11-9 SU & 16-3-1 ATS (84.2%) in Week 2 since '05 (+12.7 units, R.O.I.: 66.8%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO

Analysis: Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Seattle and Tampa Bay made this system a perfect 2-0 ATS in 2013, and San Diego (W) & the Jets (L, ATS Push) were 1-0-1 ATS a year ago. San Francisco, facing Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, hosting New England, will provide two more opportunities to cash in for 2015.

3) Teams that lost their opening game on the road bounce back at a 28-15 SU & 30-12-1 ATS (71.4%) rate when playing at home in Week 2 over the L5 seasons. (+16.8 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, PHILADELPHIA, & INDIANAPOLIS

Analysis: This system typically produces a lot of teams qualifying each season, and going into last season, teams in this scenario were a sterling 14-2-1 ATS in the prior two years!!! However, last year’s six teams split their games both SU & ATS, a possible cooling of the system. Still, home openers can provide much needed incentive to turn some negative momentum around. This is a classic example of how oddsmakers trap bettors into thinking Week 1’s results are the new norm.

4) Teams that lost on the pointspread by 15 or more points in Week 1 divisional games are 8-4 SU & 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) in Week 2 since '07 (+8.9 units, R.O.I.: 80.9%, Rating: 7*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Second week pointspread adjustments tend to go against teams that were blown out by divisional opponents in Week 1, in most cases over-adjustments. In the one qualifying game on this system in 2014, New England crushed Minnesota to even its season record at 1-1. This was an important win for the Patriots, who went on to win the Super Bowl.

5) Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS (75%) in Week 2 since '04 (+9.5 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these Week 2 dogs to pull the upset. This has been an outstanding money line system over the years as well, hitting at 65% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option.

6) Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 27-10 SU & 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) since '03 (+13 units, R.O.I.: 35.1%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON DALLAS

Analysis: Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well prepared the second time around. Miami was the only qualifier last season and lost, so keep that in mind, although a single loss certainly isn’t enough to suggest a turn on this system. There were only three divisional tilts in Week 1 this season.

7) Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 15-3 OVER (83.3%) the total since '08 (+11.7 units, R.O.I.: 65%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SF-PIT, DET-MIN, STL-WAS, MIA-JAC

Analysis: These teams fully underachieved offensively in Week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward erroneously. Both games in this system a year ago easily surpassed the posted total.

8) Teams that beat their Week 1 pointspread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 14-3-1 UNDER (82.4%) the total in Week 2 since '02 (+10.7 units, R.O.I.: 62.9%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in HOU-CAR, TEN-CLE

Analysis: These Week 1 overachievers lit it up against unfamiliar opponents. In Week 2, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals.

9) Teams that lost as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+8.8 units, R.O.I.: 67.6%, Rating: 6*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, & SEATTLE

Analysis: Week 1 road favorites are obviously highly regarded teams. They have proven good enough to be able to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding a 0-2 start. Last year, the two qualifiers split, with the Patriots posting a resounding 30-7 win over Minnesota, and the Saints falling to 0-2 after losing at Cleveland.

10) Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 20-9-1 UNDER (69.0%) the total in Week 2 since '05 (+10.1 units, R.O.I.: 34.8%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: UNDER in STL-WAS, ATL-NYG, & DAL-PHI

Analysis: In all honesty, this one is tough to explain…but its success is tough to argue. A perfect 4-0 record in 2014 bounced this system up seven spots in our ranking for 2015.

11) Of the last 19 teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games, 14 have gone OVER (14-5, 73.6%) the total in Week 2 (+7.5 units, R.O.I.: 39.5%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in SEA-GB

Analysis: In all likelihood, these teams that were upset in Week 1 underperformed, especially offensively, and come back flying in Week 2. Last year, this system was just 1-3, with the losing teams mustering just 10.0 PPG, so beware of a shift.

12) Teams that lost close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 14-5 OVER (73.6%) the total in Week 2 since '08 (+8.5 units, R.O.I.: 44.7%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in ATL-NYG, DAL-PHI, & SEA-GB

Analysis: As it has turned out lately, teams losing heartbreakers in Week 1 have either slipped defensively in Week 2 or gained an increased focus offensively. Last year’s three games on this system all won.

13) Teams facing opponents that allowed 38 or more points in Week 1 are 15-7 SU & 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) coming back in Week 2 since '02 (+8.4 units, R.O.I.: 38.2%, Rating: 5*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS

Analysis: Playing against teams that came up bad defensively in Week 1 is a good idea, as in many cases, the ground has already been laid for these being bet against teams for the season.

14) Week 1 favorites of 6-points or more that lost their game have bounced back with a record of 10-3 SU & ATS (76.9%) in Week 2 since '02 (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Teams favored by 6-points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2014, the Bears qualified for this system after losing at home in Week 1 and responded with a big upset win at San Francisco. All three of the bigger favorites of 2015 Week 1 were victorious.

15) Teams that lost as road favorites have gone 10-3 OVER (76.9%) the total in Week 2 over the L4 seasons (+6.7 units, R.O.I.: 51.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DET-MIN, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND

Analysis: Only teams with potent offenses are granted roles as road favorites this early in the season, and after an upset loss in Week 1, these teams typically respond with big offensive performances.

16) Week 1 underdogs of 7-points or more that won ATS in their game are 7-7 SU & 8-3-3 ATS (72.7%) in Week 2 since '06 (+4.7 units, R.O.I.: 42.7%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NY GIANTS

Analysis: Perhaps these teams are better than oddsmakers and other so-called experts realize. Last year, the Colts qualified for this system but were in the second of back-to-back difficult games in the schedule and lost at home to Philadelphia on Monday Night.

17) Teams that scored 35 points or more in Week 1 are 16-9-1 OVER (64%) the total in Week 2 since '07 (+6.1 units, R.O.I.: 24.4%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in TEN-CLE

Analysis: Oddsmakers simply can’t put totals high enough on these teams as they get on an early season roll offensively. Bear in mind that two of the three games that qualified for this system in 2014 lost so perhaps oddsmakers are reacting quickly to the high scoring potential.

18) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 15-9 SU & 14-8-2 ATS (63.6%) since '06 (+5.2 units, R.O.I.: 23.6%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON GREEN BAY

Analysis: Momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carryover well into Week 2.

19) Week 2 home teams that pulled upsets as road underdogs in Week 1 are 15-8 SU & 13-8-2 ATS (61.9%) since '06 (+4.2 units, R.O.I.: 20%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NONE for 2015 unfortunately

Analysis: Week 1 road upsets have proven to be a big momentum builder for teams heading into Week 2. Most often these teams are headed for 2-0. Three of the record high five qualifying teams for 2014 won their games. Tennessee was the only road underdog winner in Week 1 but plays another road game this week at Cleveland.

20) Teams that played as road favorites in Week 1 have gone 29-18-1 OVER (61.7%) the total in Week 2 since '06 (+9.2 units, R.O.I.: 19.5%, Rating: 4*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in DEN-KC, HOU-CAR, DET-MIN, SD-CIN, MIA-JAC, DAL-PHI, SEA-GB, & NYJ-IND

Analysis: Again, Week 1 road favorites are typically the best offensive teams in football, OVER’s a natural tendency. This system is off a 2-1 performance in 2014.

21) Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 14-9-1 OVER (60.8%) the total since '06 (+4.1 units, R.O.I.: 17.8%, Rating: 3*)

2015 Potential Plays: OVER in GB-SEA

Analysis: These teams come into Week 2 games with a lot of momentum based on their big divisional win, and that typically results in another strong offensive effort. After a 0-2 record a year ago however, this system is in danger of falling off our 60%+ list.

22) Teams that were upset in Week 1 divisional games bounce back at a 18-10 SU & 17-11 ATS (60.7%) rate in Week 2 since '02 (+4.9 units, R.O.I.: 17.5%, Rating: 3*)

2015 Potential Plays: Play ON SEATTLE

Analysis: Urgency. Teams upset by divisional foes in Week 1 naturally come into Week 2 with a greater sense of urgency. Two of four teams qualifying won a year ago, but this system is also on the verge of elimination on our list.

Good luck with your Week 2 NFL plays!

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Broncos at Chiefs

September 16, 2015


You've heard this one before, but keep reading anyway.

Peyton Manning is done. It’s over.

The future Hall of Famer is already making more appearances in Papa John’s commercials than he does in highlight reels, unless you count the ones where his recent struggles are being documented. Let’s go ahead and hit the pause button on that narrative right there.

On Thursday night, all eyes will be on Manning as he takes the field in Kansas City for a key early AFC West showdown. Most will be looking to see another indication that the NFL’s all-time leader in career touchdown passes has lost it. The Chiefs are three-point favorites. Denver has only been an underdog six times since he joined the franchise in 2012, going 2-4 straight up in those contests. One of those wins as an underdog came in last year's visit to Kansas City, where the Broncos held serve 29-16 in a game that went under the posted total. Both of last season's meetings failed to eclipse the number, as the under is 4-1-1 since Manning joined the Broncos.

Manning, who failed to lead his offense into the end zone in Denver’s 19-13 win over Baltimore, has been saddled with the lowest projected total (42.5) for a game involving his Broncos since 2012, when the regular-season finale against these Chiefs closed at 41. Over the past two seasons, the lowest total involving Denver and their hurry-up offense closed at 47. Including the playoffs, 20 Broncos games have had a projected total of 50 or higher. Welcome to 2015, Peyton.

Prevailing sentiment is that he can no longer run a productive offense. The fact the Broncos defense look like world-beaters also factors in, but respect for the five-time MVP is unquestionably at an all-time low. The over was actually a healthy 10-6 last season despite hovering at an average of nearly 49, almost a full touchdown above what it will be set at here. The under went 11-5 in Chiefs games last season, but lost in Week 1 as turnovers were turned into points in a 27-20 win over Houston.

Over the last seven games, a stretch which began with last year’s trip to Arrowhead (Nov. 30) and includes a 24-13 home playoff loss to Indianapolis, the 39-year-old Manning has thrown just six touchdowns against seven interceptions as Denver games have come in under the posted total in five of seven. He’s completed 160 of 241 passes for 1455 yards in that span, so his yards per attempt is barely over 6.00, which ranks among the bottom 20 percent of starting quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.

He’s only topped more than 10 yards per attempt once in the last seven games (Dec. 14 at SD), and his QBR has been over 90 only once (same game). Even if you scoff at the numbers and point out that the Broncos are 5-2 in those starts, it’s obvious Manning’s days of being the driving force within an offense appear over.

To say he’s done, in my opinion, is a massive overreaction. It’s downright disrespectful. People have been looking to sprinkle dirt on Manning’s open coffin for the past few seasons. Remember when he came back from neck fusion surgery after missing the entire 2011 season? Remember reading about the journey of his comeback, from teaching himself how to throw again to building back up strength? Parts of his upper body atrophied. There were people imploring for him to retire.

Manning hasn’t missed a game since. He’s played in four playoff contests. He’s delivered nearly 1,500 passes. He led the league in passing yardage and passing touchdowns in 2013. He’s made two more Pro Bowls and won another MVP.

He has no feeling in his fingertips. His passes often wobble like the 10-year-old who is learning to throw a spiral.

He’s won 30 of 43 NFL games in that span, including the first one of this season, defeating a Ravens team considered a co-favorite in a loaded AFC North. Sportsbook.ag still has the Broncos (5-to-1) behind only New England (3-to-1) to win the conference. If Manning were really done, you would think Denver would be getting better odds.

This seven-game stretch we’re trying to bury Manning for has featured an intrusive quad injury that caused last season’s dramatic dip and an adjustment to a brand new system while facing an elite Baltimore defense in the 2015 opener.

That brings us back to Thursday and the opening game of Week 2. The stage is all Manning’s to thrive or fail on, but we should get used to the reality that putting an entire team on his shoulders is no longer in his job description. He’ll share the spotlight with his impressive defense and a running game expected to be fortified by new head coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme that has moved Manning into more of game manager role. Once he grows accustomed to what he’s doing, he’ll probably excel in it.

Kubiak heeded Broncos Executive vice president and GM John Elway’s call to return home in part to help Manning navigate the final years of his career while attempting to take full advantage of a defense that is going to be the driving force these next few years, hopefully resulting in one more Super Bowl run. To try and write Manning off because he didn’t look comfortable in the season opener reeks of Tim Duncan syndrome. Just because he’s never going to throw 55 touchdowns again doesn’t mean he can’t get back to throwing 26, a number he’s hit three separate times as a tremendous career-low. It doesn’t mean he can’t will a strong team to a championship the way the Spurs star has on multiple occasions despite being past his prime.

We’re watching Manning begin the process of his final manifestation. Barring injury, you won’t see backup Brock Osweiler taking the field to replace an ineffective Manning. He’s too valuable recognizing coverages and making the right calls and reads to deliver wins like the 19-13 result Denver escaped with in Week 1.

Andy Reid is authoring a similar blue print in Kansas City, building an offense around an elite back in Jamaal Charles while trusting Alex Smith to make the right decisions at the controls. Defensive stars like Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe up front are going to help win a lot of football games, as they managed to in wreaking havoc in the Houston Texans backfield last Sunday. Can they effectively get to Manning, who was uncharacteristically sacked four times by Baltimore?

Reid is coaching in just his third home opener since taking over the Chiefs and is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS, losing last season's first game at Arrowhead 26-10 to a Titans team that won just two games all season. Reid wasn't strong in home openers in Philadelphia, going just 5-9 there before departing after the 2012 season.

Certainly, if you’re looking to fade Manning, the circumstances appear to be in your favor. Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the loudest atmospheres in the league, one that is capable of helping swallow an unstable offense. The Chiefs went 1-2 in primetime games last season, but crushed the Patriots 41-14 at home on a Monday night, ironically beating them so badly that some were looking to write New England off on Sept. 29. Kansas City's defense is fierce and should benefit from Broncos playmakers C.J. Anderson (foot) and Demariyus Thomas (hand) both operating at less than 100 percent. The Chiefs are the much healthier team, though projecting starting corner Sean Smith will miss this game, serving the second of a three-game suspension.

Manning is 11-1 in his career against the Chiefs, including a 6-0 mark (4-2 ATS) with Denver, but the quarterback that amassed those figures isn’t the same guy you’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Do you still believe in this new version’s ability to go on the road and intelligently lead his team through obstacles? Your wager will largely hinge on that answer, so be careful underestimating a quarterback who has spent most of this decade beating the odds.

Greatness tends to manifest itself in different ways. Manning may find a way to do it as a game manager. This also may be far too great a challenge to overcome this early in his new endeavor. All eyes are squarely on him.