The Bum's 2015 College Football All You Need To Know- Trends, Picks, News Etc.

[StarDust Bum]

Michigan State amped for rematch with Ducks

EAST LANSING, Mich. -- Every team says it takes one game at a time. It's a standard sports cliche.

Michigan State is no different, and leading up to a season-opening win over Western Michigan, that was the approach.

But, as linebacker Riley Bullough admitted, the big games are on the players' minds during winter conditioning or going through a difficult session in the weight room. That's when teams like Oregon and Ohio State come to mind.

That was the motivation this off-season for the Spartans, whose only two losses last season came to the two teams that played for the national championship. In those two games they missed out on their shot at reaching the playoffs and having an opportunity to play for a national title.

That is the goal, and the first chance Michigan State gets at avenging one of those defeats is Saturday when No. 7 Oregon comes to Spartan Stadium. It will be the first time the teams have met since the Ducks' 46-27 win last season in Eugene. The Spartans started fast and led 27-18 in the third quarter before the Ducks exploded for 28 straight points.

That performance was a huge motivator this off-season.

"That loss last year stunk and it stuck with us," said senior quarterback Connor Cook, who threw for 343 yards and two touchdowns last season vs. Oregon. "Looking back, just how close we were, playing so great in the first half and coming out and not doing so well in second half, stuff like that sticks with you. What hurt even more was to see them make the playoffs and the national championship game and play Ohio State, another team we lost to. Seeing those two teams playing for the national championship wasn't the best thing.

"So we emphasized that the whole off-season, the losses to Oregon and Ohio State. Doing stuff in the weight room whether it was one more rep or another workout, dedicating that stuff to the loss last year when it was so close. The whole off-season – spring ball, summer, whatever – we definitely referred back to those games and we have done a little extra just to prepare for those games."

Michigan State's defense struggled at times in the opener and will have its hands full with Oregon's high powered offense. Marcus Mariota is gone, but senior transfer Vernon Adams was outstanding for the Ducks and he said he'll be ready on Saturday after getting knocked out of the game last week after an illegal hit. The former star of the FCS threw for 246 yards and ran for another 94.

The Spartans say they're better prepared this time around and learned valuable lessons from last season's losses.

"We gotta finish. We gotta finish," Cook said. "I just need to have that in the back of my mind and keep thinking about it this week and emphasize it all through practice and throughout the week. If that means watching more film with the guys, staying after practice and getting more reps … just constantly emphasizing that and making that the focal point of the week – finishing."

NOTES, QUOTES

PLAYERS TO WATCH

--S RJ Williamson had his share of problems last season in Michigan State's loss at Oregon, getting beaten deep several times in the second half as the Ducks scored 28 unanswered points to rally from a nine-point deficit for the victory. Williamson lost his starting spot at one point last season but has refocused and is back as the leader of the secondary. His play last season has motivated him and expect a better showing this time around from the fifth-year senior.

--Junior middle linebacker Riley Bullough started his first game in the middle in the opener and he was all over the field. The brother of former Spartan Max Bullough had nine tackles and led Michigan State with three sacks. He won't likely be racking up those sorts of sack numbers this week but getting the defense aligned properly will be key while he uses his speed to attempt to reign in Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams.

--RB LJ Scott was the only MSU running back not to score last week, but the true freshman might have been the hardest runner. He led the Spartans with 77 yards on 13 carries and when the game was still in the balance in the fourth quarter it was Scott on the field and not Madre London or Gerald Holmes. MSU will ride the hot back each week, but it appears likely that Scott could end up being the go-to guy at some point this season.

SERIES HISTORY:

Oregon leads 3-2 (Oregon won, 46-27, last season in Eugene, Ore.)

QUOTE TO NOTE:

"Our MO was to try to reach higher, and to do that, right now, it runs through Oregon." -- Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING MONDAY'S ACTION 09/10/15 :

cfb: 1 - 1 - 0

college football record:

single play:.......................................5 - 9 - 1
double play:......................................8 - 7
triple play:........................................6 - 3
blow out:..........................................1 - 3
gow:.............................................. ...0 - 0
gom:.............................................. ..0 - 0
goy............................................... ..0 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Western Kentucky - Under 62.5 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 11


Hurricanes struggled to cash ATS on the road last year

The Miami Hurricanes were not a good wager in their road games during the 2014 season, posting just a 1-4 record straight up and against the spread in five away outings.

They'll try to get things started on a positive note in their road opener at Florida Atlantic Friday evening. The Owls have been a red-hot bet in September recently as they've posted an ATS record of 11-1 in their last 12 games during the month.

Miami is presently an 18-point road fave.


Possible thunderstorms in Miami-FAU game

According to weather forecasts, there is about a 40 percent possibility of thunderstorms expected in the Boca Raton area which could play a part in the Miami Hurricanes visit to the Florida Atlantic Owls Friday evening.

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s with wind blowing from the southeast at around four miles per hour.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 11

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Game of the Day: Utah State at Utah
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Devontae Booker rushed for 1,512 yards last season but struggled to get loose against Michigan and had 69 yards on 22 attempts.

Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes (-12, 44)

Utah has dominated the series with Utah State and look to post its 14th win the past 15 meetings when it hosts the Aggies on Friday. The No. 25 Utes began their season with a solid 24-17 victory over Jim Harbaugh-led Michigan while Utah State scuffled to a 12-9 win over FCS Southern Utah.

Utah senior quarterback Travis Wilson passed for 208 yards against Michigan in the opener and he burned Utah State for 302 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-26 victory in 2013. The Utes may have enjoyed a lot of past success against Utah State but coach Kyle Whittingham isn't feeling relaxed about the contest. "It's been very competitive, I can tell you that, especially of late," Whittingham said during a press conference. "Our guys look forward to it. We better be at our best if we're going to have a chance to win this football game." Aggies senior quarterback Chuckie Keeton passed for 314 yards and two scores in the 2013 contest against the Utes and has thrown 58 career touchdown passes, two shy of the school mark set by Jose Fuentes (1998-2002).

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Utes -12 and while they've spend a bit of time up around -13.5, they are back down to -12. The total opened at 45.5 and is down to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Utah State - WR Brandon Swindall (Questionable, hamstring), WR Zach Van Leeuwen (Questionable, undisclosed). Utah - WR Tim Patrick (Questionable, undisclosed), TE Evan Moeai (Out for season, leg).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the southeast at around six miles per hour.

ABOUT UTAH STATE (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): The Aggies' lone touchdown in their opener was a game-deciding 88-yard punt-return score by junior Andrew Rodriguez as Keeton struggled through a 16-of-33 passing performance for 110 yards and one interception. "When you're not playing as one heartbeat on offense, it doesn't look very good," Utah State coach Matt Wells said in a press conference. "Not all is lost and the sky is not falling by any means, but there is improvement to be made in every position in our meeting room on offense." The defense is led by two standout linebackers - junior Nick Vigil (13 tackles versus Southern Utah) and senior Kyler Fackrell (two sacks in the opener).

ABOUT UTAH (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Senior running back Devontae Booker rushed for 1,512 yards last season but struggled to get loose against Michigan and had 69 yards on 22 attempts. "We expect him to do a better job," Utes coach Kyle Whittingham said in a press conference. "It wasn't because of a lack of touches - he had 29 with carries and receptions combined - but we have to do a better job." Junior nickel back Justin Thomas was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week due to his 55-yard interception return against the Michigan and a defense that includes standout senior middle linebacker Jared Norris will gain another strong player in junior cornerback Dominique Hatfield, who returns from a suspension related to robbery and assault charges during the summer.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
* Road team is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games.
* Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. MWC.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-five percent of users are backing the Utes.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Top Action

September 8, 2015


UTAH STATE AGGIES (1-0) at UTAH UTES (1-0)
Rice-Eccles Stadium - Salt Lake City, UT
Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Utah -13.5, Total: 44.5

Utah looks to build upon a strong season-opening win when it hosts in-state rival Utah State on Friday night.

Both schools opened the season with victories, but the Aggies did very little offensively in a 12-9 squeaker over 32-point underdog Southern Utah. They gained just 250 total yards of offense (140 rushing, 110 passing), but held their opponent to 163 yards (52 rushing, 111 passing) to eke out the win.

The Utes were outgained by Michigan 355 to 337, but capitalized on three Wolverines turnovers, including a game-clinching interception returned for a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter.

Utah has dominated this rivalry series since 1998, winning 13 of the 14 meetings SU and holding an 8-6 ATS advantage. But USU has played very well in the past two matchups, posting a 27-20 victory in 2012 before losing by a slim 30-26 margin in Salt Lake City in 2013. Although the Aggies failed to force a turnover versus their FCS opponent last week, they are an impressive 12-3 ATS on the road since 1992 after failing to record a takeaway. However, the Utes have obliterated non-conference opponents over the past three seasons, going 8-0 ATS, and outscoring them by an average of 41 to 16.

There are several key players on each squad that might not suit up on Friday. For Utah State, WRs Brandon Swindall (hamstring) and Zach Van Leeuwen (undisclosed) are both questionable, and the trio of CB Bryant Hayes, WR Hunter Sharp and OL Tyshon Mosley are all expected to miss this contest due to suspension. Two of Utah's offensive weapons are listed as questionable, WR Tim Patrick (undisclosed) and TE Evan Moeai (leg).

Utah State scored only three offensive points in last week's opener, as special teams accounted for nine points with a blocked PAT return in the first quarter, and then an Andrew Rodriguez 88-yard punt return touchdown in the fourth quarter to seal the victory.

Senior QB Chuckie Keeton had one of the worst games of his career, completing just 16-of-33 passes for 110 yards (3.3 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. Keeton was once a great dual-threat signal caller, but after multiple knee surgeries, he's no longer very mobile, picking up just seven yards on six carries. Considering Utah held Michigan to 76 yards on 29 carries (3.3 YPC) last week, Keeton will have to throw much more effectively for his team to stay in this game.

Two years ago against Utah, Keeton single-handedly kept his the Aggies close with 314 yards and 2 TD through the air plus 85 yards and another score on the ground. Although his team converted just 1-of-16 third downs in last week's scare to Southern Utah, one positive was that Keeton's 16 completions were spread around to eight different receivers.

The big star for the Aggies last week was RB LaJuan Hunt who rumbled for 80 yards on 23 carries, while JUCO transfer RB Devante Mays had the game's biggest run of 39 yards which comprised most of his 51 yards on four carries.

Utah State's defense was excellent last season, allowing only 19.7 PPG (12th in nation) and 4.8 yards per play (13th in FBS), and certainly looked strong last Thursday in holding the Thunderbirds to 1.7 yards per carry, 2.8 yards per rush and allowing just one third-down conversion in 18 attempts.

Utah was able to win and cover last week, but the offense wasn't spectacular. QB Travis Wilson completed 24-of-33 throws, but gained only 208 yards (6.3 YPA) with 0 TD and 1 INT. Wilson was much more productive against USU when the schools last met in 2013, completing 17-of-28 passes for 302 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

Another Utes offensive player who needs to get going is RB Devontae Booker. He rushed for 1,512 yards last season, but picked up only 69 yards on 22 totes (3.1 YPC) against Michigan in the season opener. Utah State allowed only 3.3 yards per carry last year, so Booker could be in for another frustrating night.

Speaking of stuffing the run, Utah did a great job of that against the Wolverines, limiting them to 76 yards on 29 carries (2.6 YPC). And although the Utes are not as strong in the secondary, allowing 247 passing YPG last year, they collected three interceptions last week, which helped ease the sting of Michigan's 279 yards through the air.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet

September 10, 2015


**Miami at Florida Atlantic**

-- Miami (1-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) rolled to a 45-0 win over Bethune-Cookman in its season opener this past Saturday. Due to a 75-minute lightning delay in the second quarter, the third and fourth quarters were shortened to 10 minutes apiece. Therefore, all bets on the side and total became no-plays because the game didn't go 55 minutes. Otherwise, the Hurricanes would've covered the spread as a 38.5-point home favorite. Brady Kaaya completed 16-of-27 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The UM defense limited Bethune-Cookman to just five first downs and 73 yards of total offense. Mark Walton, a true freshman running back who was the prize of the 2015 recruiting class, rushed 10 times for 85 yards and one TD, while sophomore Trayone Gray ran for 77 yards and one score on just eight totes.

-- Miami will head up Interstate 95 about 45 miles to Boca Raton to face Florida Atlantic, the program founded by Howard Schnellenberger, who coached UM to its first of five national championships in 1983. The Hurricanes haven't won the national title since 2001. Even worse, they haven't won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004. In fact, the 'Canes have never even made it to the ACC Championship Game, nor have they recorded a double-digit win season while on the conference. Al Golden is in a pivotal season, his fifth and perhaps his last in Coral Gables. His tenure has been an immense disappointment, though we should note that the Nevin Shapiro Scandal hovered over the program for his first three years at UM. Golden has a 28-22 record and only one of his first four teams has won more than seven games. After going 6-7 straight up and 5-8 against the spread in 2014, UM returns five starters on offense and six on defense.

-- As of Thursday morning, Miami was listed as a 17.5-point road favorite at FAU with a total of 55.5. The Owls were +700 on the money line (risk $100 to win $700). Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1.

-- Florida Atlantic (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) dropped a 47-44 decision in Saturday's opener at Tulsa. The Owls took the cash, though, hooking up their backers as 3.5-point road underdogs in the overtime defeat. FAU went ahead 41-38 with 1:48 remaining on a 47-yard field goal from Greg Joseph, but Tulsa answered with three ticks left when Redford Jones tied the game with a 39-yard boot. On the first possession of the extra session, Joseph gave the Owls the lead back at 44-41 with a 27-yard FG. However, a three-yard TD run by Tulsa's Zack Langer gave the Golden Hurricane the victory.

-- FAU quarterback Jaquez Johnson connected on 23-of-34 throws for 263 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed 20 times for 97 yards. RB Greg Howell produced 138 rushing yards and two TDs on 22 carries. Jenson Stoshak was Johnson's favorite target, hauling in seven receptions for 114 yards and one TD.

-- FAU finished the 2014 campaign with a 3-9 SU record and a 6-6 ATS ledger. The Owls return six starters on offense and six on defense. Johnson has now made 23 career starts for FAU, posting a 31/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 17 rushing TDs.

-- These nearby programs met for the first time two years ago at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. Miami cruised to a 34-6 win, but FAU took the cash as a 31-point road underdog. Johnson threw for 83 yards and ran for 30 in the losing effort, but the Owls could generate only a pair of short field goals.

-- FAU has lost 29 of 30 games in the school's history against Power Five opponents.

-- FAU has lost six in a row going back to last season, but it is a respectable 3-3 ATS during this span. The Owls went 2-0 ATS in a pair of games as home underdogs last year, winning outright both times vs. UTSA and Western Ky.

-- Miami has been a road 'chalk' eight times on Golden's watch, producing a 5-3 spread record.

-- Kaaya had an outstanding freshman season and is off to a nice start as a sophomore. He finished last year with 3,198 passing yards and a 26/12 TD-INT ratio. Nevertheless, UM lost four straight games to end the season, including a 24-21 setback against South Carolina at the Independence Bowl. The 'Canes lost by double-digit margins five times in 2014.

-- Miami will be without a pair of starting WRs at FAU. Stacy Coley (hamstring) and Braxton Berrios (knee) are both 'out' after getting injured vs. Bethune-Cookman.

-- FAU could be without a pair of key players. Roman Fernandez, a redshirt freshman center, is 'doubtful' with an illness. LB Robert Relf, who had 65 tackles last year, is 'questionable' with a shoulder injury.

**Utah State at Utah**

-- I was a huge fan of Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton before injuries derailed his career. Since his arrival on campus in Logan, Utah State has gone to four consecutive bowl games. His first coach, Gary Andersen, has landed a pair of jobs at Power Five schools (Wisconsin and Oregon State ) since 2012 when Keeton led the Aggies to an 11-2 record both SU and ATS. In his first 2.5 seasons, Keeton started 27 games and threw 56 TD passes compared to merely 13 interceptions. He also ran for more than 1,100 yards and 14 TDs during this span, but he saw his 2013 season end with a serious knee injury, the second such of his career. Utah State decided to shut him down in 2014 after he wasn't himself in the first three games. Keeton is back this year, but I'm afraid he might not ever be that same special player we saw from 2011-2013. In the Aggies' opener last week, they emerged unscathed in a 12-9 win over Southern Utah. Keeton completed just 16-of-33 passes for 110 yards with one interception. He ran the ball just six times for seven yards. Trailing 9-5 at the five-minute mark of the fourth quarter, Andrew Rodriguez returned a punt 88 yards for a TD to lift the Aggies into the win column. Utah State 's special teams were responsible for nine of the team's 12 points.

-- Utah State WR Hunter Sharp will serve the final game of a two-game suspension against the Utes. Sharp had team-highs in catches (66), receiving yards (939) and TD receptions (seven) last season. Like Sharp, starting OG Tyshon Mosley and DB Bryant Hayes will also miss a second straight game due to suspensions. Hayes had 20 tackles, four sacks and five passes broken up in 2014. In addition, WRs Brandon Swindall (hamstring) and Zach Van Leeuwen are 'questionable.'

-- As of Thursday morning, most spots had Utah (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) installed as a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 44.5. Gamblers can take the Aggies to win outright for a +425 return (risk $100 to win $425).

-- Kyle Wittingham's team won its season opener last Thursday by beating Michigan 24-17 as a 5.5-point home favorite. The 41 combined points stayed 'under' the 45-point total. The Utes, who never trailed and led 10-3 at halftime, put the game away with 7:55 left when Justin Thomas intercepted Michigan QB Jake Rudock and returned the pick 55 yards for a score. The Wolverines got a late TD in the final minute to cut the deficit to seven. Travis Wilson threw for 208 yards and rushed for 55 yards and one TD. Devontae Booker rushed for 69 yards and one score while also catching seven balls for 55 yards.

-- As a home favorite during Whittingham's 11-year tenure, Utah owns a 24-23-2 spread record.

-- Utah State has been a road underdog 49 times since 2005, cashing tickets at a lucrative 31-18 ATS clip. However, in two seasons under Matt Wells, the Aggies are just 3-5 ATS as road puppies.

-- Utah State finished 2014 with a 10-4 SU record and a 7-7 ATS mark. The Aggies brought back nine starters on offense and six on defense. They beat UTEP by a 21-6 count as 10-point favorites at the New Mexico Bowl.

-- ESPN will have Friday night's telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**

-- Tennessee junior DT Danny O'Brien will not play Saturday vs. Oklahoma after being suspended Wednesday for a violation of team rules. O'Brien had 23 tackles and one sack in 12 starts last year.

-- UT covered the number in its 59-30 home win over Bowling Green as a 21.5-point home favorite last Saturday. However, the defense gave up 557 yards. QB Matt Johnson went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1 of the 2014 season, but he returned in style at Neyland Stadium. Johnson completed 27-of-49 passes for 424 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. UT's Josh Dobbs threw for 205 yards and rushed for 89. He had two TD passes compared to zero interceptions and also scored on a 18-yard TD run to put the Vols ahead of the number (56-30) for the first time in the game.

-- Pitt RB James Conner was lost for the season to a torn MCL in his team's season-opening win over Youngstown State Conner garnered ACC Player of the Year honors in 2014 when he rushed for 1,765 yards and 26 TDs.

-- BYU quarterback Taysom Hill will miss the rest of the season after sustaining a foot injury in his team's 33-28 win over Nebraska in Lincoln. The Cougars were already without starting RB Jamaal Williams and TEs Colby Jorgensen and Steven Richardson for the year. Nevertheless, there's hope after freshman QB Tanner Mangum connected on a Hail Mary pass on the game's final play to lift BYU to victory in Lincoln. Mangum will make his first start this weekend at home vs. Boise State

-- Missouri has covered the spread in nine consecutive road games. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are 26-9 ATS on the road. They are double-digit road 'chalk' Saturday at Arkansas State.

-- Florida transfer Jeff Driskel had a nice debut as the La. Tech starting QB. Driskel completed 12-of-15 passes for 274 yards and four TDs without an interception in the Bulldogs' 62-15 home win over Southern as 39-point favorites. Driskel also ran 15 yards and one TD on three totes.

-- As for Kentucky transfer Max Smith, his debut at San Diego State didn't go as well. Smith connected on just 9-of-21 passes for 100 yards without a TD and one interception.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, September 11

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at FLA ATLANTIC (0 - 1) - 9/11/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (1 - 0) at UTAH (1 - 0) - 9/11/2015, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, September 11

8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida Atlantic's last 9 games
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
UTAH STATE vs. UTAH
Utah State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah State is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Utah's last 12 games

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Friday's games
Since 2012, Florida Atlantic is 20-12 vs spread as an underdog; Owls (+7) lost 47-44 in Tulsa last week; they ran ball for 317 yards, were +4 in turnovers, still lost in OT. FAU (+31) lost 34-6 in only previous game with Miami, two years ago. Owls have an experienced QB. Miami hosts Nebraska next week; this game means more to FAU. 'canes are 22-32 as a home favorite the last decade- they whacked a cupcake last week.

Utah won 13 of last 14 games with Utah State (3-4 vs spread last seven); State lost last seven visits here, with four of the last five by 16+ points. Utah State is 3-5 as road dog under coach Wells, after being 14-2 when Anderson was coach. Aggies struggled mightily to beat Southern Utah 12-9 last week- Utah beat Michigan 24-17 in a national TV game-- both games were Thursday, so teams have proper rest. State's Keeton is in his sixth year as a college QB (got injury waiver LY).

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Utah State @ Utah

Game 305-306
September 11, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
81.515
Utah
98.131
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 16 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 13
44
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-13); Under

Miami-FL @ Florida Atlantic

Game 303-304
September 11, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
90.538
Florida Atlantic
76.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 14 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 18
55
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+18); Over

[StarDust Bum]

RECAPPING THURSDAY'S ACTION 09/10/15 :

CFB: 0 - 2 -0


COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

single play:.......................................5 - 9 - 1
double play:......................................8 - 9
triple play:........................................6 - 3
blow out:..........................................1 - 3
gow:.............................................. ...0 - 0
gom:.............................................. ..0 - 0
goy............................................... ..0 - 0

[StarDust Bum]

Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores

8:00 PM EDT

303 MIAMI FLORIDA -17 -17.5 -15 / -18 -15 / -18.5 -17 -1000
304 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 67.5 58 / 56 / 56.5 56.5 +700

TV: FS-1, DTV: 219 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE SHOWER/STORMS EARLY. SOUTHEAST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 84, RH 76% HEAT INDEX 93

9:00 PM EDT

305 UTAH STATE 47 44.5 / 45.5 / 46 46 +375
306 UTAH -12 -11.5 -05 / -11.5 / -12 -05 -11.5 -470

TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209 | FAIR, NORTHWEST WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 83, RH 17% WIND CHILL 0

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NCAAF Consensus Picks

SIDES (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

9:00 PM Utah State +11.5 768 37.26% Utah -11.5 1293 62.74% View View

8:00 PM Miami -17 1211 63.07% Florida Atlantic +17 709 36.93% View View


TOTALS (OVER/UNDER)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

9:00 PM Utah State 45.5 798 57.12% Utah 45.5 599 42.88% View View

8:00 PM Miami 56.5 784 57.82% Florida Atlantic 56.5 572 42.18% View View


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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Miami - 8:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +17 500 *****

Florida Atlantic - Over 56.5 500 *****


Utah State - 9:00 PM ET Utah State +11.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Utah - Under 45.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

September 11, 2015


NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (1-0) at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (0-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Notre Dame -12.5, Total: 48.5

No. 9 Notre Dame looks to build on its impressive season-opening win when it travels to 0-1 Virginia on Saturday afternoon.

The Fighting Irish destroyed 9-point underdog Texas in their season opener by a 38-3 score as they piled up 527 total yards and held the Longhorns to 163 total yards. The win did come at a steep price though, as top RB Tarean Folston (1,079 total yards last year) suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Even without Folston, the Cavaliers will certainly have their hands full on defense having just allowed 503 total yards in a 34-16 season-opening loss (and ATS push) at UCLA. Although Mike London is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the Virginia head coach, he is also 15-31 ATS with the Cavaliers when playing with six or less days of rest.

In addition to the Folston injury, the Irish will be without DB Avery Sebastian (foot) for at least one month, and they already lost three defenders for the season in DB Shaun Crawford (ACL) and DLs Ishaq Williams (eligibility) and Jarron Jones (knee).

Virginia lost three players indefinitely last week in WR T.J. Thorpe (collarbone), C Eric Tretlow (undisclosed) and OT Jake Fieler (undisclosed), and both WR Doni Dowling (knee) and OT Sadiq Olanrewaju (shoulder) are questionable for Saturday.

Junior QB Malik Zaire completely picked apart Texas last week by throwing as many touchdowns (3) as incompletions (19-of-22 passing), gaining 313 yards on 14.2 yards per attempt. With Virginia allowing a subpar 233 passing YPG and 7.1 YPA last season, the Irish will likely call more passes than runs.

With the devastating injury to top RB Tarean Folston, the Irish turned to senior RB/WR hybrid C.J. Prosise who carried the football 20 times for 98 yards against Texas. Zaire (9 carries) and freshman RB Dexter Williams (7 carries) were the only other players to surpass five rushes last week.

After surrendering a hefty 29.2 PPG (82nd in nation) and 404 total YPG (71st in FBS) last year, the Irish defense was relentless against the Longhorns, holding them to 2.1 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per pass. But considering Texas held the ball for just 20:50 and had no drive longer than 2:35, the Notre Dame defense wasn't really tested. Virginia will try to control more of the clock and attack what it hopes will be a more tired Irish stop unit.

Virginia was able to move the ball effectively through the air with 238 passing yards on 6.6 YPA, but the ground game was held to a meager 98 yards on 34 attempts (2.9 YPC). Junior QB Matt Johns completed 60% of his throws with 1 TD and 1 INT, and also connected with eight different receivers. His favorite target was junior RB Taquan Mizzell who caught eight passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. That was much more productive than his weak 45 rushing yards on 16 carries (2.8 YPC).

One player who really shined last week was freshman TE Evan Butts who caught two passes of 28 and 14 yards.

Defensively, the Cavaliers allowed five different UCLA players to rack up a reception of 30+ yards as Bruins QB Josh Rosen threw for 351 yards (10.0 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT. The unit didn't do a great job stuffing the run either, allowing 152 yards on 34 carries (4.5 YPC). Last season, Virginia gave up 121 rushing YPG and 3.4 YPC, both of which ranked among the top-20 teams in the nation.

OREGON DUCKS (1-0) at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -4, Total: 67

For the second time in two seasons, highly-ranked Oregon (No. 7) and Michigan State (No. 5) will clash in a non-conference matchup with national title implications.

Last season, the seventh-ranked Spartans traveled to Eugene and held a 27-18 lead in the third quarter before the third-ranked Ducks woke up and finished on a 28-0 run to win 46-27. But Oregon had eventual Heisman Trophy-winning QB Marcus Mariota that game, and on Saturday new starting QB Vernon Adams Jr. might be less than 100 percent after getting hit hard in his team's unimpressive 61-42 win over FCS school Eastern Washington to open the season. Although the Ducks rushed for a ridiculous 485 yards on 8.5 YPC last week, they allowed the Eagles to pile up 549 total yards, including 438 through the air.

Michigan State also had trouble defending the pass against Western Michigan last Saturday in allowing 365 passing yards on 7.3 YPA, but played well enough to win 37-24 and nearly cover the 16.5-point spread on the road.

In last season's matchup the teams were about even in yardage (MSU 466, Oregon 491), but Spartans QB Connor Cook threw an uncharacteristic 2 INT to allow the Ducks to come back. Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich is 13-1 ATS after scoring 24+ points in the first half of his previous game, but Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in the past three seasons when coming off a road contest.

In addition to Adams listed as probable, the Ducks continue to be without three offensive players in RB Thomas Tyner (shoulder, out for season), WR Devon Allen (knee) and TE Pharaoh Brown (leg). All of the Spartans' potential absences are on the defensive side of the ball with LB Ed Davis (knee, out for season), DB Mark Meyers (suspension, out indefinitely) and LB Drake Martinez (undisclosed injury, questionable for Saturday) on the injury report.

Oregon QB Vernon Adams Jr. didn't disappoint in his first game with an FBS school, completing 19-of-25 passes for 246 yards (9.8 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT against his former teammates at Eastern Washington. He also carried the football 14 times for 94 yards, and his 6.7 YPC average was actually the lowest on the team. Sophomore RB Royce Freeman rumbled for 180 yards on just 21 totes (8.6 YPC) with three touchdowns. He also ran well against the Spartans last year with 89 yards on 13 carries (6.8 YPC) and two touchdowns.

Seven different Ducks receivers caught at least two passes in the season opener, led by Dwayne Stanford's 90 yards on three receptions.

Oregon's defense gave up gobs of yardage last season (430 YPG - 165 rush, 264 pass), but still held opponents to 23.6 YPG. Although the unit had no answer for EWU star wideout Cooper Kupp, who finished with 15 catches for 246 yards and 3 TD, the Ducks were able to limit the Eagles to a pedestrian 111 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.6 YPC).

Michigan State QB Connor Cook is the star of this offense, coming off a 3,214-yard, 24-TD season. Although he failed to complete half his passes last week (15-of-31), he still threw for 256 yards (8.3 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT. Top WR Aaron Burbridge is now the go-to receiver with Tony Lippett gone, and the senior had a big day in the opener with 117 yards on just four catches (29.2 avg).

More importantly for the Spartans was finding a solid ground game after losing Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,522 yards and 22 TD as a senior last year. Three ball carriers all topped 50 yards against WMU, with freshman LJ Scott leading the way with 77 yards on 13 carries (5.9 YPC). Redshirt freshman RB Madre London scored two touchdowns as part of his 59 yards on 13 carries (4.5 YPC) and sophomore RB Gerald Holmes ran for 54 yards on nine carries (6.0 YPC). Oregon had a middling run defense last year (165 rushing YPG, 4.2 YPC), so this trio should be able to find some holes.

Michigan State's defense was top-notch last season, allowing an FBS-low 88.5 rushing YPG, and the unit predictably stuffed the Broncos last Saturday, holding them to 18 yards on 23 carries. However, two WMU receivers caught at least 10 passes for 100+ yards, and that is very troubling to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio, who knows that the Ducks have as much offensive talent and speed as any program in the nation.

LSU TIGERS (0-0) at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: LSU -4, Total: 49.5

After having its game versus McNeese canceled after five minutes last week, No. 14 LSU will have a much tougher opponent to prepare for in its new season opener on Saturday night when it travels to No. 25 Mississippi State.

Per usual, the Tigers will likely boast a top-notch defense, but their offense was below average last season with 27.6 PPG and 388 total YPG. Sophomore QB Brandon Harris hopes to change that, but has a young group of skill players surrounding him.

The Bulldogs certainly have the advantage under center with senior QB Dak Prescott who totaled 4,435 yards and 41 touchdowns last season. It was Prescott's arm (237 pass yds, 2 TD) and legs (72 rush yds, 1 TD) that propelled his team to a 34-16 victory at 21-point home underdog Southern Mississippi last week.

LSU has owned this series historically, going 21-2 SU (18-5 ATS) versus Mississippi State since 1992, which includes a 10-1 mark (SU and ATS) in Starkville. However, the Bulldogs won in Baton Rouge last season by a 34-29 score and out-rushed the hosts by a wide 302 to 89 margin. Prescott was the star with 373 total yards and three total touchdowns.

The Tigers have an excellent 9-2 ATS record under Les Miles as a road favorite of seven points or less, but good passing teams (58%+ completion pct) from the previous season, such as MSU, who are tabbed as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are a hefty 46-16 ATS (74%) in the past 10 seasons.

The only notable injury for either team is Bulldogs DB Taveze Calhoun, who did not play last week because of an undisclosed ailment, but has been upgraded to probable for Saturday's contest.

LSU is a very young team, as head coach Les Miles played at least six true freshmen in last week's action before the contest was rained out. The focal point of the offense is highly-recruited RB Leonard Fournette who is coming off a strong freshman season with 1,034 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns.

He had just seven carries in the loss to MSU last season despite gaining a solid 38 yards (5.4 YPC) on those seven totes. QB Brandon Harris also played in that game, and was quite effective with 6-of-9 completions for 140 yards (15.6 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT.

The Tigers had one of the best passing defenses in the nation last season, as they held opponents to 164 passing YPG and 5.5 passing YPA.

New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, formerly Alabama's LB coach, is most concerned about a thin linebacker corps, as he understands the challenge of trying to contain the explosive Prescott.

Mississippi State got itself in an early 10-7 hole last week, but dominated Southern Miss in the final three quarters where it outscored the Golden Eagles 27 to 6. QB Dak Prescott connected with 11 different receivers, as WR Fred Ross was the top target with team-highs in receptions (five) and receiving yards (75).

The Tigers have great talent in their back four, but they are young and could be ripe for the picking with a senior quarterback. While Prescott was the main ball carrier in the opener, the Bulldogs also got nice production from junior RBs Brandon Holloway (7 rush, 51 yds) and Ashton Shumpert (8 rush, 38 yds).

Defensively, MSU still showed vulnerability in the secondary (273 passing YPG allowed last year) as it surrendered 311 passing yards, but the unit did pick off two Southern Miss passes.

However, LSU prefers to run the football, and Bulldogs held last week's opponent to a mere 102 yards on 36 carries (2.8 YPC).

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (1-0) at BYU COUGARS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Boise State -3, Total: 55

Two teams coming off nail-biting victories will try to start the season with 2-0 records on Saturday night when No. 20 Boise State travels to BYU.

While the Broncos did not look strong in a narrow 16-13 win at home versus 13-point underdog Washington, the Cougars needed a Hail Mary on the final play of the game to knock off 5-point favorite Nebraska by a 33-28 score. The bad news for BYU was that its leader, dual-threat QB Taysom Hill, suffered a season-ending foot injury. Freshman QB Tanner Mangum played admirably in relief of Hill and will get the start on Saturday.

These programs are meeting for the fourth straight season with the home team having won the previous three matchups. After BYU rolled to a 37-20 victory in 2013, Boise State returned the favor last year with a 55-30 thumping thanks to 637 total yards of offense. Both programs have favorable betting trends, as road teams after scoring and allowing 17 or less points against an opponent after scoring 24+ points in the first half of last game are 53-21 ATS (72%) over the past 10 seasons, but BYU is 4-1 ATS in the first two weeks in the past three years.

While the Broncos are relatively injury-free, the Cougars lost Hill, DL Travis Tuiloma (knee) and TE Colby Jorgensen (undisclosed) indefinitely last week. Also, DL Isaiah Nacua (disciplinary) is questionable for Saturday.

The Boise State offense was potent under Bryan Harsin last season, piling up 39.7 PPG (9th in FBS) and 494 total YPG (14th in nation), but last week the numbers dipped to 16 points and 337 total yards. Sophomore QB Ryan Finley was 16-of-26, but gained just 129 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. No Boise State receiver gained more than 28 yards in the game, but six players caught multiple passes in the narrow win.

The star of the offense was RB Jeremy McNichols who rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD on 24 carries (3.7 YPC). He'll be hard-pressed to duplicate this output against an excellent BYU run-stop unit. The Broncos defense was adequate last year (375 YPG, 48th in nation), and was much better in the season opener, as Washington gained just 29 yards on 22 carries (1.3 YPC) and threw for only 150 yards with an interception.

After gaining a pedestrian 182 rushing YPG last year (47th in nation), the Cougars were even less productive to open this season with 132 yards on 26 carries (5.1 YPC). More than half of those yards and both rushing touchdowns came from now-injured QB Taysom Hill. QB Tanner Mangum, who rushed for 26 yards on five carries (5.2 YPC), and senior RB Adam Hine (4 rush, 37 yds) will have to be much more effective. Mangum completed 7-of-11 passes for 111 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, and he will rely heavily on WR Nick Kurtz, who gained 123 yards on five receptions.

The Cougars defense allowed 445 total yards to Nebraska last week, but they did force two turnovers. BYU, which really stuffed the run effectively last year (121.8 rush YPG, 20th in FBS), was able to limit the Cornhuskers to 3.4 YPC (126 rush yds on 37 carries) in the season opener.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (1-0) at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (1-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line: South Carolina -8.5, Total: 55.5

Two teams looking for a big start to their SEC seasons will collide on Saturday night when Kentucky visits South Carolina.

The Wildcats barely escaped 16.5-point underdog Louisiana-Lafayette last week, eking out a 40-33 victory with a last-minute touchdown and having the good fortune of getting four ULL turnovers. The Gamecocks were also involved in a nail-biter, edging North Carolina 17-13, and winning the turnover battle 3 to 0. Although South Carolina has been the better team in this matchup since 1992, holding advantages of 16-7 SU and 14-9 ATS in the series, Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings, including outright wins in 2010 and 2014.

The Wildcats were 5-point underdogs last season but benefitted from three Gamecocks interceptions to erase a 14-point deficit with 11:45 remaining to pull off the mild upset, 45-38. The team that has won the turnover battle is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings of these SEC foes, and bettors should also know that the Over is 13-3 in this series since 1993, including a perfect 9-0 in Columbia meetings.

While Kentucky bettors should note that its Saturday opponent is 5-15 ATS at home after allowing 6.75+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992, those backing South Carolina can point to Steve Spurrier's strong 25-15 ATS mark after playing a non-conference game since becoming head coach of the program.

Both teams are ravaged with injuries in the early going, with the Wildcats missing a slew of linebackers, including LB Courtney Love (eligibility, out), LB Kobie Walker (ankle, doubtful) and LB Jason Hatcher (suspension, doubtful).

The news is much better for the Gamecocks, who have given probable tags to QB Connor Mitch (hip), RB Brandon Wilds (shoulder) and WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), but three SC defenders are questionable in LB Sherrod Pittman (leg), DB Antoine Wilder (ankle) and DB Shannon James (wrist).

Kentucky showed great offensive balance in the season opener, throwing for 257 yards (6.9 YPA) and running for 178 yards (6.8 YPC). The Wildcats need to do a better job of controlling the clock though, as their 5-of-14 conversions on third down led to a meager 22:55 time of possession.

Junior QB Patrick Towles completed just 47% of his passes (16-of-34), but still threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. In last year's win over the Gamecocks, Towles was an efficient 20-for-29 with 208 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT.

Sophomore WR Garrett Johnson was his main target last Saturday with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. The Wildcats also ran the ball effectively with 178 yards on just 26 carries (6.8 YPC).

Most of that production came from sophomore RB Stanley "Boom" Williams who needed only 10 rushes to gain 135 yards and a touchdown. Kentucky's defense allowed 26 points in the second half last week, which could easily happen again with the offensive talent the team will be facing on Saturday.

South Carolina's ground game was potent last week with 254 yards on 47 carries (5.4 YPC), highlighted by senior RB Shon Carson's 75 yards on just four rushing attempts. RBs Brandon Wilds and David Williams combined for a mediocre 93 yards on 24 carries (3.9 YPC). Considering Kentucky allowed 191 rushing YPG last year, expect a heavy dose of running for the Gamecocks on Saturday.

But they need to throw the ball more effectively to set up the run. QB Connor Mitch was just 9-of-22 for 122 yards (5.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT against North Carolina, and connected with stud WR Pharoh Cooper only four times for 20 yards.

Cooper had his way with the Wildcats last year, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. The Gamecocks defense played horribly in 2014 (30.4 PPG, 433 total YPG allowed), but showed significant improvement against the Tar Heels, especially in the area of pressuring the opposing quarterback into some tough throws. This resulted in three South Carolina interceptions.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Tip Sheet

September 11, 2015


**Oklahoma at Tennessee**

-- As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Oklahoma (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 63.

-- Tennessee covered the number in last week's 59-30 win over Bowling Green as a 21.5-point home favorite. Joshua Dobbs threw for 205 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and he also rushed for 89 yards and one score. Dobbs's 18-yard TD scamper early in the fourth quarter put the Volunteers ahead of the number (56-30) for the first time. Alvin Kamara, the juco transfer who began his career at Alabama, exploded in his Neyland Stadium debut. Kamara rushed 15 times for 144 yards and two TDs, while Jalen Hurd ran for 123 yards and three TDs on 23 carries.

-- Tennessee's personnel issues took another hit Wednesday when the school announced that junior DT Danny O'Brien would not play Saturday due to a suspension for a violation of team rules. O'Brien had 23 tackles and one sack in 12 starts last year. O'Brien joins senior starting safety LaDarrell McNeil (76 tackles, two interceptions in 2014), starting OG Marcus Jackson (done for the season) and WR Jason Croom among those that'll be missing vs. OU. Croom, who had 21 receptions for 305 yards and four TDs last season, remains out with a knee injury. On the bright side for the Vols, Pig Howard will return to the lineup after serving a one-game suspension. Howard had team-highs in catches (54) and receiving yards (618) last season. He also rushed 15 times for 96 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Tennessee is now 13-13 under Butch Jones. Therefore, this game offers a chance for UT to turn the corner literally in terms of becoming a winner on Jones's watch. Most important, however, is for the Vols to win their first big game in nearly a decade. Remember, this program hasn't won more than seven games in a season since 2007.

-- Oklahoma captured a 41-3 win over Akron as a 31-point home favorite in its season opener last weekend in Norman. Baker Mayfield, the transfer QB from Texas Tech, enjoyed a sensational debut for the Sooners. Mayfield connected on 23-of-33 throws for 388 yards and three TDs without an interception. Joe Mixon had three receptions for 115 yards and one TD, while RB Samaje Perine rushed for only 33 yards and one TD on 11 carries. The OU defense limited the Zips to merely 10 first downs and 226 yards of total offense.

-- After its worst season in more than a decade, Bob Stoops figured he needed to make changes this past offseason. That's what an 8-5 record and humiliating losses will force on a program. The Sooners dealt with those in 2014, getting run out of Memorial Stadium by Baylor in a 48-14 clubbing. Then at the Russell Athletic Bowl, Clemson trashed OU by a 40-6 count.

-- I thought Stoops made the third-best assistant hire of the offseason when he was able to lure East Carolina offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley away from the Pirates. Riley was the OC at ECU for five years, running his 'Air-Raid' attack with great success as QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy obliterated the school record books. Riley's hire was third behind Auburn DC Will Muschamp and Texas A&M DC John Chavis (in that order).

-- It was clear in the opener that OU is going to attack more with the passing game. When the Sooners do go to the ground game, however, they'll have one of the nation's top backs despite his pedestrian numbers from last week. As a true freshman in 2014, Perine earned third-team All-American honors by rushing for 1,713 yards. Perine started only eight games, yet averaged 6.5 yards per carry and ran for 21 TDs.

-- When these storied programs collided in Norman last year, OU won a 34-10 decision and took the money as a 20.5-point home 'chalk.' Hurd ran for 97 yards on 14 carries in the losing effort. With UT trailing 27-10 and in the red zone early in the fourth quarter, Julian Wilson intercepted a Justin Worley throw and turned into a 100-yard pick-six to put the game on ice.

-- Tennessee has been a home underdog four times under Jones, producing a 3-1 spread record and one outright victory. The Vols beat then 11th-ranked South Carolina 23-21 on a last-second field goal that prevented the Gamecocks from winning the SEC East during an 11-win campaign.

-- Since 2008, Oklahoma owns a 16-13 spread record in 29 games as a road favorite.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Kentucky at South Carolina**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most books had South Carolina (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) listed as an eight-point home favorite for its SEC opener vs. Kentucky. The total was 56 at most spots. UK is +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).

-- Kentucky (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) raced out to a 21-0 lead and led 33-10 late in the third quarter of its season opener vs. UL-Lafayette last Saturday in Lexington. But the Ragin' Cajuns wouldn't go away, scoring 23 unanswered points, including a pair of two-point conversions, to pull even midway through the final stanza. UK needed a 12-yard TD run from Mikel Horton with 57 ticks remaining to pull out a 40-33 victory as a 17-point home favorite.

-- Kentucky QB Patrick Towles completed 16-of-34 passes for 257 yards and three TDs with one interception. Stanley 'Boom' Williams rushed for 135 yards and one TD on 10 carries, taking his first tote the distance of 75 yards on the game's first play from scrimmage. Garrett Johnson, a true sophomore WR, had a team-best five receptions for 85 yards and one TD.

-- South Carolina was fortunate to win its opener by a 17-13 count over North Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite in Charlotte. Junior LB Skai Moore had a pair of interceptions in the end zone, including one late in the fourth quarter on fourth and goal to help lift his team into the win column. Shon Carson gave the Gamecocks their first lead of the game when he scampered off right tackle untouched for a 48-yard TD run with 12:35 left in the fourth quarter.

-- South Carolina third-year sophomore QB Connor Mitch was up and down in the first start of his career. He demonstrated speed and elusiveness with several nice scramble and he finished the night with 44 rushing yards on 10 carries. Mitch has a strong arm but clearly needs to improve his decision making, which should come with more reps. He was victimized by a few drops, completing only 9-of-22 passes for 122 yards and one TD without an interception. Pharoh Cooper had three catches for 45 yards and one TD, while also rushing four times for 20 yards. Senior RB Brandon Wilds ran 51 yards on 14 totes and also had four receptions for 44 yards.

-- As a home favorite during Steve Spurrier's 11-year tenure, South Carolina owns a 27-24 spread record. However, we should note that the Gamecocks limped to a 1-5 ATS mark in six such spots last season.

-- Kentucky has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a road underdog on Mark Stoops's watch.

-- Since Spurrier arrived in Columbia, South Carolina has won eight of 10 head-to-head meetings against UK. The Gamecocks are 6-4 ATS in those contests, 3-2 ATS in the five games played at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Wildcats picked up both of their wins at home in 2010 and 2014. Trailing 38-24 with less than nine minutes left in last year's game, UK would score 21 unanswered points to pull out a 45-38 triumph as a four-point puppy. Towles threw for 208 yards and one TD without an interception, while the UK defense intercepted Dylan Thompson three times.

-- The 'over' has hit in eight straight meetings between these SEC East rivals.

-- The 'under' has cashed in five straight South Carolina contests dating back to last year. Meanwhile, UK has seen the 'over' hit in four consecutive outings.

-- Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on The SEC Network.

**LSU at Mississippi State**

-- This is a big revenge game for LSU after getting embarrassed by Mississippi State at Tiger Stadium in a night game last year. The Bulldogs raced out to a 34-10 lead and held off a late LSU charge to secure a 34-29 win as nine-point road underdogs. It was the first time Mississippi State had beaten the Tigers since 1999!

-- Dak Prescott, a Louisiana native who stuck by his verbal commit to Mississippi State when LSU came calling late in the recruiting process, enjoyed his coming-out party in Baton Rouge. Prescott threw for 268 yards and a pair of TD without being intercepted. Also, he ran 22 times for 105 yards and one more score. Josh Robinson rushed for 197 yards and one TD on just 16 totes.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had LSU favored by 4.5 points with an 'over/under' of 50. Bettors can back the Bulldogs to win outright for a +175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).

-- LSU saw its season opener vs. McNeese State washed away by Mother Nature last weekend. The offense only had one series and was forced to punt after five plays. On the one hand, you can say that LSU isn't bruised or injured and should be fresh this week. On the flip side, the needed reps, especially for QB Brandon Harris, were needed. Now the team must open the year on the road and, lest we forget, Harris's first career start last season at Auburn was a nightmare, ending in a 41-7 loss.

-- Dan Mullen's team spent a month atop the national rankings last year after defeating three consecutive then-Top-10 foes in LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn. Mississippi State won its first nine games before losing 25-20 at Alabama as a 9.5-point road underdog. The Bulldogs saw their hopes of making the College Football Playoff dashed in their regular-season finale, as Ole Miss beat them 31-17 at the Egg Bowl in Oxford. Then at the Orange Bowl, MSU was throttled 49-34 by Ga. Tech as a six-point 'chalk.'

-- Mullen lost talent galore from that team. In fact, MSU returned just four starters on offense and three on defense. In addition, DC Geoff Collins bolted Starkville to take the same position at Florida on Jim McElwain's staff. Therefore, Mullen brought back Manny Diaz, who was DC at MSU before taking the same job at Texas earlier in Mullen's tenure. After getting pink slipped by Mack Brown in Austin after a stunning loss to BYU, Diaz spent last year on Skip Holtz's staff as DC at La. Tech.

-- Mississippi State failed to cover the spread and got all it wanted from Southern Miss in Hattiesburg last weekend. The Bulldogs trailed two different times in the first half and might have found themselves down at intermission if not for a pair of huge special-teams plays. First, after the Golden Eagles took a 3-0 advantage, Brandon Holloway returned the ensuing kickoff back 100 yards for a TD. Then with So. Miss leading 10-3 early in the second quarter, MSU got a blocked punt that set it up with great field position. Prescott would take advantage a few plays later with a five-yard scoring strike to Justin Johnson.

-- Mississippi State would eventually collect a 34-16 win over So. Miss, but it never seriously threatened to cover the number as a 21-point road favorite. Prescott finished with 237 passing yards and two TDs without an interception. The senior signal caller also rushed for 72 yards and one score on eight totes.

-- The MSU defense gave up 413 yards of total offense to the Golden Eagles, who threw for more than 300 yards.

-- The 'over' is 9-2 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these SEC West adversaries.

-- Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. Eastern. The cow bells will be blowing up in Starkville.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Notes - Week 2

September 10, 2015


We did a good job last week as only the Hail Mary in the BYU-Nebraska game prevented us from calling all four move games correctly and I’m hoping some of you got the win in the Cougars-Cornhuskers outcome, which obviously was a great middle ticket for some bettors.

For VI users new to this piece, each week I provide four totals and group them into four categories.

This weekend, I offered up my analysis for Week 2 and hopefully that provides you with more insight on how I handicap college football totals.

1) Correct sharp movement: Memphis/Kansas OVER

Sharps have pounded the Memphis-Kansas game up by a full TD already and I agree completely with this line move. Memphis returns eight starters to an offense that had a lot of success last year and finished strong scoring 38, 31, 41, and 55 points in their last four games. The Tigers faced two Top-15 defenses last season and averaged just 9.5 points per game vs those teams (Ole Miss and Temple) but averaged 41 PPG vs all others.

Kansas blundered its way to an opening game loss vs FCS South Dakota St., but the Jayhawks did produce 576 yards of offense and ran 90+ offensive plays. Kansas doesn't return much from last season and have a new head coach, so sharps may be thinking that the South Dakota State game is a good indicator of how the Jayhawks will behave offensively. Also, Kansas has been a poor program for some time now but they've been an underdog to a non-Power 5 conference team just once in the last five years, and that game resulted in a combined 87 points being scored.

2) Incorrect sharp movement: East Carolina/Florida UNDER

I'm a little surprised at the sharp movement towards the UNDER in the ECU-Florida game. If you have this game UNDER the opener (56) perhaps you have a decent bet but at the current number (52) the UNDER, in my eyes, is clearly not the right side. This number has been driven down by the fact that quarterback Shane Carden is no longer at ECU, plus the Pirates lost this year’s starter Kurt Benkert to an ACL injury. Also, the Gators return possibly the best secondary in the country.

Unit matchup enthusiasts are likely enthralled with the UNDER here for precisely that reason. However, several factors lead me to believe that we could see more points than expected here. Despite under-performing badly last year, Florida returns SEC talent on the offensive side of the ball and new head coach Jim McElwain, while at Colorado State, showed that he had the ability to find offense with moderate resources. The Gators should be able to simply "power" their way to some points using the type of physical offensive game-plan that McElwain enjoys. Also, ECU has shown that under HC McNeil they can score when visiting major conference foes, averaging 25.9 PPG in road/neutral site games vs Power 5 conference teams during his tenure.

3) Public movement: Bowling Green/Maryland OVER

This movement was an easy one to predict, especially after watching the Bowling Green/Tennessee contest last week. In that game, we had the OVER and the game easily soared beyond the line of 68. Bowling Green has played exceedingly up-tempo in their two seasons under head coach Dino Babers and they return 10 offensive starters including quality QB Matt Johnson. The Falcons produced 24 first downs, 30 points, and 557 yards of offense at Tennessee last week and now face an easier foe in the Terrapins.

Maryland returns just four defensive starters so why shouldn't the Falcons be able to do just as well against them? I don't think this line is done rising and I don't expect any buyback later. Usually, I'll look to fade the public OVER moves I identify but I don't want any part of an UNDER wager in this one at anything less than 74.

4) Market manipulation: Temple/Cincinnati OVER

Market manipulators get a nice setup for this game as everyone who had the Temple OVER last week vs Penn State will be trying it again this week. Some sharps liked the Temple-PSU OVER last week and those same sharps are likely to back the OVER again in this matchup, giving the market just enough push to get this to 56 so big UNDER players can take a shot.

OVER bettors will have the same problem that they had last week, Temple head coach Matt Rhule knows where his bread is buttered……and it's on the defensive side of the ball. The Owls play conservatively, and slowly, on offense and let their quality defense do the talking. Cincinnati does have QB Gunner Kiel and an offensive minded coach but they had both of those things last season when these two squads combined to score 20 points.

Aloha!

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 2

September 10, 2015

Oregon at Michigan State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Spartans (-3.5)

These two faced off last year in Eugene and Oregon (-13) pulled away in the 2nd half for a 46-27 win. The game was much closer than that however as MSU actually held a 27-18 lead in the 3rd quarter. After the Spartans took at 27-18 lead early in the 3rd, the Ducks went onto outscore MSU 28-0 and outyard MSU 284 to 132. The overall yardage was fairly close (MSU 466 & OU 491) but Sparty turned the ball over twice (no turnovers for Oregon). The Ducks 2015 debut last week was very impressive on offense (61 points & 731 total yards) but discouraging on defense (42 points allowed & 549 yards allowed).

New Eastern Washington QB’s West & Hennessy torched the OU secondary for 438 passing yards on 8 yards per attempt. Last year’s EWU QB Vernon Adams switched jerseys and is the starting QB for Oregon this season. He had a solid performance before he took a cheap shot late in the game from one of his “teammates” from last year and had to exit. Looks like he’ll be fine for this Saturday’s game. MSU took care of a solid Western Michigan team on the road winning 37-24. Sparty’s defense was OK but not great in this one. WMU put up just short of 400 yards on 5 YPP. It was MSU’s first game without long time defensive coordinator Narduzzi who is now the head man at Pitt. Looks like both defenses might have problems slowing down their opponents which is why the total came out at 67. This is a game MSU has had this game circled for a full year. They are 13-1 the last two years at home with their only loss coming to Ohio State here a year ago. Oregon has not been an underdog since the 2011 season (46 straight games as a favorite). The Ducks were 26-13 ATS as an underdog from late in the 1999 season through 2011.

Washington State at Rutgers (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Scarlet Knights (-2)

Lots of distractions taking place right now at Rutgers with an academic scandal and the dismissal of 5 arrested players. Those distractions didn’t come into play last week as the Knights played a severely overmatched Norfolk State team who was just 4-8 last season. It was a close game at half with Rutgers leading 21-13. In the 2nd half, the Knights regained the services of QB Chris Laviano & WR Leonte Carroo who were both suspended in the 1st half. They went onto outscore Norfolk St 42-0 in the 2nd half for a final of 63-13.

Washington State comes in shaken. They were upset at home by Portland State as a 30 point favorite! How unlikely was that? Since 1980 there have been 1,235 teams favored by 30 points or more and only 14 of those teams have lost outright. WSU outgained Portland St 411 to 294 but their high powered offense was hindered as the game was played in a driving rain storm. Starting QB Luke Falk took a big hit late in the game and has been limited this week in practice. We’re told he’ll be ready and will start on Saturday. These two met last year and Rutgers (+8) pulled the road upset winning 41-38. Look for the Knights to try and control tempo again this year by running A LOT! They held an 7:00 minute time of possession edge in last year’s game rushing 43 times for 215 yards.

Florida International at Indiana (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hoosiers (-7.5)

The Hoosiers escaped with a win over FCS opponent Southern Illinois 48-47. After scoring the go ahead TD with just 1:20 remaining, IU allowed the Salukis to go 75 yards in 5 plays scoring with 18 seconds left. Rather than kick the XP and move to overtime, SIU decided to go for the win and their 2-point attempt failed. The Hoosiers looked very good on offense rolling up 595 total yards. The problem is, as it has been for years, the Indiana defense. They gave up a whopping 659 yards on an embarrassing 8.5 yards per play. To put that in perspective, that’s more yardage than SIU (who had a 5-6 record last year) put up on any of their FCS opponents. It was 100 yards more than SIU gained on last year’s opening opponent, Taylor University.

The Hoosiers were missing key players at each level of their defense with starting DT Latham and starting LB Scales suspended. Starting safety Dutra was also out with an injury. In all IU had 9 players suspended for game 1. Eight of those players will be back this week with the exception of Scales who is serving a 2 game suspension. This is another dangerous game for IU. Florida International upset their in-state rival UCF 15-14 last Thursday. The Panthers, unlike Indiana, look to have a stout defense holding UCF to just 295 total yards on 64 plays (4.6 YPP). FIU has also had a few extra days to prepare for this one playing on opening Thursday last week. Perhaps a letdown for FIU after their big win?

Miami (Ohio) at Wisconsin (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Badgers (-34)

Badgers are a bit beat up coming off their physical game with Alabama. Alabama was able to wear down Wisconsin in the trenches in the 2nd half en route to a 35-17 win. Speaking of trenches, this looks to be one of Wisconsin’s weaker offensive lines in years. They started 3 players up front who have never made a collegiate start. They’ve also had a number of injuries on the O Line so they are very thin at that spot. Starting RB Clement tweaked his groin during the week and was not nearly 100% on Saturday. Starting WR McEvoy pulled a hamstring in practice and also was not at 100%. Lastly, the QB of their defense and leading returning tackler, safety Mike Caputo exited after only a few plays last week due to a concussion. He will be evaluated later this week.

QB Stave looked solid as we thought he might as new head coach Paul Chryst is very good with QB’s. The Badgers were held to just 40 yards rushing and 15 of those came from a WR on an end around. This from a team that has averaged 264 YPG rushing of the last 5 years. It was their lowest rushing total for a game since the 2012 season. They should be fine this week against a Miami OH team that allowed 200 YPG on the ground last year and 155 yards rushing on over 4 YPC to Presbyterian last Saturday (a 26-7 Miami Oh win, a 13-7 game entering the 4th quarter).

Oregon State at Michigan (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Wolverines (-14)

Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan debut ended in a disappointing 24-17 loss AT Utah. The Wolverines actually outgained the Utes 355 to 337 and 4.9 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The two glaring problems for Michigan in that game were interceptions (3) by new QB Jake Rudock (former Iowa QB) including one returned for a TD. Rudock threw only 5 picks all last season as the starter for the Hawkeyes so we guess his game vs Utah may have been an aberration. The second was their running game. Harbaugh really wants to emphasize the rushing attack and beat teams up on the ground. Michigan tallied only 76 yards rushing on only 2.6 YPR. Defensively the Wolves will again be among the best in the nation. After allowing just 311 YPG last year (6th nationally) new DC DJ Durkin had them looking very good last Thursday.

Former Wisconsin head man Gary Andersen brings Oregon State into Ann Arbor Saturday. He’s transitioning the Beavs to a spread offense from their pro style sets under former coach Mike Riley. OSU won their opener vs Weber State 26-7 in a game that was 6-0 at half. True freshman QB Seth Collins will be making his first career start after impressing in the 2nd half last week. They’ll rely heavily on the run (only 110 yards passing last week vs Weber) which could be a problem against a stout and big Michigan front. The game also starts at Noon ET so Oregon State’s “body clocks” will be set at 9 AM Pacific.

Iowa at Iowa State (FOX, 4:45 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Hawkeyes (-3.5)

Both teams impressed in their openers last weekend. Iowa faced an Illinois State team that made it to the FCS National Championship game last year. The Hawkeyes dominated jumping out to a 31-0 lead before a few late TD’s made it look more respectable at 31-14. Iowa was +8 first downs, +200 yards, and +5:00 time of possession. Iowa State also whipped a very reputable FCS opponent downing Northern Iowa 31-7. UNI is a team that beat this Iowa State squad 2 years ago and then nearly topped Iowa last season. For comparison’s sake, Northern Iowa played host to Illinois State last year and beat the Redbirds 42-28. In their game on Saturday AT ISU, despite the lopsided final score, the numbers were fairly even.

The Cyclones had a minimal 310 to 302 total yardage edge along with just one more first down. Iowa State led just 10-7 at half but it could have been much worse as the Cyclones missed 2 field goals and QB Richardson overthrew what would have been 2 TD passes. Iowa State pulled the upset last year winning in Iowa City 20-17 as a 13-point dog. Neither team did much offensively as ISU tallied 337 yards and Iowa had only 275. That’s a common theme in this rivalry that has averaged only 39 total points per game the last 17. Only 3 of those 17 games have topped 48 total points. Iowa State has dominated the spread numbers going 13-4 ATS in this series.

Minnesota at Colorado State (CBSSN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Golden Gophers (-5.5)

The Gophs defense was very impressive in their home opener vs #2 TCU. We were told the coaching staff is really excited about that side of the ball and feel they have their best defensive backfield in years. That looked like the case last Thursday despite the 23-17 loss to the Horned Frogs. While TCU did put up 449 yards, it also took them 84 plays to do so (just 5.2 YPP). This from a TCU team that average 6.6 YPP a year ago. TCU has now faced Minnesota twice in their last 14 games and the Gophers have held them to an average of 26.5 PPG in those two games. TCU has averaged 48 PPG in their other 12 games during that 14 game stretch.

Minny QB Leidner looked decent throwing for 197 yards. They’ll need some consistency from him in the passing game if they want to beat the better teams on the schedule. Hard to gather much from new head coach Mike Bobo’s CSU debut. The Rams crushed Savannah State 65-13, although State might be the worst team in the entire FCS. They were 0-12 last year losing 10 of those games by 2 TD’s or more. CSU was 6-0 at home last year and you’d think they’d have a very good long term record at home but that’s not the case (just 31-26 at home the last 10 years). The Gophs have been a road favorite just 6 times over the last 5 years so not something they are used to.

Buffalo at Penn State (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Nittany Lions (-18.5)

Well the talk of PSU’s offense, which averaged only 20 PPG last year, being better may have been a bit premature. Granted, they were playing a Temple team that looks to have a very good defense, but that was ugly. PSU QB Hackenberg looked flustered the entire game and why wouldn’t he. He was under constant pressure and the Owls sacked him a whopping 10 times. The offensive line which was horrendous last year for the Nits, looked just as bad in game 1.

Temple held Penn State to only 180 total yards on 52 plays. Hackenberg completed only 11 passes and averaged only 4 yards per pass attempt. After their first 2 drives which resulted in 10 points, the Nittany Lions totaled 33 yards on their final 12 drives! Buffalo has a new coach in Lance Leipold who led Wisconsin-Whitewater to SIX National Titles and has a ridiculous career record of 110-6. Buffalo rolled in their first game beating Albany 51-14. They are experienced on offense with a solid QB in senior Joe Licata, who has started 29 consecutive games for the Bulls. Not sure this is a spot for PSU to be laying a huge number into a well-coached team that can score points. We’ll see.

Bowling Green at Maryland (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m.)
Opening Line: Terrapins (-9)

Bowling Green has a very tough back to back situation here after playing AT Tennessee last weekend. The Falcons lost that game by 29 points (59-30 final) but that score was quite deceiving in our opinion. BG racked up 557 yards on 85 plays (6.5 YPP) compared to Tennessee’s 604 yards on 87 plays (6.9 YPP). Obviously you wouldn’t normally see a 29 point differential in those numbers. Maryland played host to Richmond in what looked like a near empty stadium at kickoff. The Spiders gave them a game until half trailing just 22-14 before Maryland exploded for a 50-21 win.

Terp punt returner William Likely set a Big Ten record with 233 return yards including one for a TD. Maryland rushed for 341 yards on 45 carries while new QB Perry Hills only completed 12 passes for 138 yards. They also looked very solid defensively allowing only 276 total yards to the Spiders. We’ll really find out about their defense this weekend as BG will push the pace in an attempt to run 80+ plays. The Falcons offense looked great against what was supposed to be a solid SEC defense in Tennessee. We expect them to put up big numbers again this week against a Maryland team that we projected near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively. We’ll find out a lot about Maryland this weekend.

Hawaii at Ohio State (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Buckeyes (-40)

With all of the build up to Monday’s game AT Virginia Tech, the Bucks are bound to have a bit of a letdown this weekend at home vs Hawaii. The question is, is this Hawaii team good enough to take advantage of that and keep the game within 5 or so TD’s? Scheduling wise, this situation does favor Hawaii who played last Thursday as compared to Monday for Ohio State. However, you also have to factor in the 4,500 mile trip the Rainbows must make which probably negates the scheduling advantage. The Bows are off an upset home won over Buffalo late last Thursday night. They were a 7.5 point home dog and won the game 28-20. The Rainbows had only 302 total yards in the game – averaging just 4.1 YPP. New QB, Max Wittek, a transfer from USC threw for 202 in his debut & the Bows benefitted from 3 Colorado turnovers.

If they could only put up barely 4 YPP on a Colorado team that finished 0-9 in the Pac 12 last year, what will they do against Ohio State’s defense? The last time Hawaii lost by 40+ points was at BYU in 2012 (47-0 final). Meanwhile, the Bucks put up 42 points and over 10 YPP on a defense that is expected to be very good this year. Not only did they average more than 10 yards per play, they up nearly 10 YPC on the ground rushing for 360 yards on 37 carries. Not only that, the Bucks get back a number of key players (Joey Bosa, Jalin Marshall, etc…) who were suspended for last weekend’s game. OSU can name this score. The question is, do they want to win by more than 40 or do they call the dogs off late and coast keeping this close to the number?

South Alabama at Nebraska (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Line: Cornhuskers (-25.5)

We all know how the Nebraska game ended last week with a BYU hail mary. Now the key question is how do the Huskers respond this week? Do they come out angry and ready to roast someone or do they come out flat after feeling sorry for themselves and how they lost their home opener? The Husker defense looks to be a potential problem again this year. After getting torched at the end of the season last year, the trend continued as BYU rolled up 511 total yards. Dating back to last year, in their last 5 games the Nebraska has allowed an average of 40 PPG and 488 YPG. The Huskers obviously need to get that addressed and quickly.

If the NU defense can’t get “better” this week, they might be in big trouble. South Alabama was a pedestrian offense last year getting held to 12 points or less 5 times! This team returned only 5 starters this year which is the fewest in all of college football. The Jags struggled to beat Gardner Webb last week by a final score of 33-23, a game they trailed early in the 3rd quarter. South Alabama had 408 total yards, however 148 of those came on two long TD plays of 92 & 56 yards. The Jags played 2 Power 5 teams last year losing AT Mississippi State 35-3 and at South Carolina 37-12. Nebraska plays at Miami, FL next week so a tough sandwich spot coming off a last second loss.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 2

September 11, 2015

2015 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

Clemson 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Duke 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

Florida State 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Georgia Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Louisville 0-1 0-0 1-0 0-0-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

North Carolina 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1

North Carolina State 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Pittsburgh 1-0 0-0 0-1 1-0

Syracuse 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Virginia 0-1 0-0 0-0-1 0-1

Virginia Tech 0-1 0-0 0-1 1-0

Wake Forest 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0

Miami-Fla. at Florida Atlantic (Friday - FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The Hurricanes head up Interstate 95 to the Glades Road exit in Boca Raton for the most important home game in FAU's brief football history. The program, started in 2001 by former UM head coach Howard Schnellenberger, has only had an on-campus stadium for a few years. Friday night's game is sold out, although there will be plenty of orange green in the stands to negate much of a home-field advantage. The Hurricanes opened with a 45-0 win over FCS Bethune-Cookman despite a lightning delay and two 10-minute quarters in the second half. FAU held a 41-38 lead in the waning moments of regulation at Tulsa, but were taken to overtime and then beaten, 47-44. The offense for Miami will be missing starting WRs Stacy Coley and Braxton Berrios, so more running is likely. UM is 2-7 ATS in its past nine against Conference USA opponents, while FAU is 11-1 ATS in its past 12 games in September (including last week) and 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning record. FAU is also 25-10 ATS in their past 35 games overall.

South Florida at Florida State (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)

South Florida manhandled Florida A&M in last week's opener, a 51-3 win. Florida State managed to run out to a 59-16 win over Texas State, giving FSU a rare cover. Last season they were a dismal 3-11 ATS. If FSU is to cover another big number in Saturday's game they will need to stop the two-headed rushing monster of dual-threat QB Quinton Flowers and RB Marlon Mack. If the Bulls are able to run, they could keep it close in the first half to make FSU bettors sweat. QB Everett Golson looked sharp in his debut, tossing four touchdowns. RB Dalvin Cook will also be a handful for USF. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the past five against ACC foes, and 8-21-1 ATS in their past 30 non-conference tilts. FSU is 1-6 ATS in its past seven outside the ACC and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home.

Houston at Louisville (ESPN3, 12:00p.m. ET)

Louisville looks to get on track after a 31-24 setback against Auburn last weekend. QB Lamar Jackson looks sharp in the second half against the Tigers, and he starts over QB Reggie Bonnafon. Houston roughed up Tennessee Tech 52-24, but this will obviously be a much bigger test. These teams are no strangers, and Louisville has won each of the past three. If the Cardinals are to cover the near two-touchdown spread in their home opener, they'll need to keep forcing turnovers. The Cards had three picks in the opener against Auburn, and posted 26 interceptions in 2014, tied for the most in the FBS. The over is 4-1-2 in Louisville's past seven, including their opener, while the over is 5-1 in Houston's past six.

Wake Forest at Syracuse (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Wake and Syracuse are already into conference play, as the Demon Deacons head north for the Carrier Dome. The Orange might be a bit subdued after losing QB Terrel Hunt to a torn Achilles' last week in their win against URI. 'Cuse now turns to true freshman Eric Dungey to handle the duties. Wake pounded an FCS opponent, too, sending Elon back down Interstate 40/85 with a 41-3 shellacking. QB John Wolford set a career-high with 323 yards, and looks poised to help the Deacs to a much better showing than last year's 3-9 mark. Syracuse won 30-7 in Winston-Salem last season, and knocked Wolford out of the game in the second quarter. A dish of revenge might be served up in upstate N.Y. this weekend.

Appalachian State at Clemson (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Appalachian State was thorough in its 49-0 blowout against FCS Howard in the mountains last weekend, while Clemson smacked around Wofford 49-10. It was a costly win, though, as they lost star WR Mike Williams. He is sidelined with a small fracture in his neck after an ugly collision with the goal post. WR Artavis Scott stepped up, giving QB Deshaun Watson another solid target, and that connection is likely to continue Saturday. WR Ray-Ray McCloud is also a player the Tigers expect big things from to fill the void. App State is 3-0-1 ATS in its past four dating back to last season, while Clemson is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 in Death Valley. The 'under' could be the play, as it is 4-1 in ASU's past five road games against a team with a winning home record, and 6-0 in Clemson's past six against a winning opponent. The under is also 8-2 in Clemson's past 10 overall, and 6-1 in Death Valley.

Tulane at Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Tulane meets an ACC opponent for the second time in two games. They were roughed up at home by Duke, 37-7, and things aren't likely to get better against a Georgia Tech team were steamrolled Alcorn State 69-6 last weekend. Tulane was trampled for 206 yards on the ground, and rushing is Ga. Tech's speciality. The Ramblin' Wreck has rushed for at least 200 yards in 15 straight games, and that streak isn't likely to end Saturday. Georgia Tech has also gotten off to fast starts, posting a touchdown on the opening possession in seven of their past eight contests. The spread hovers around 30 points, but that could be easily attainable if both teams repeat their performances from a week ago.

Notre Dame at Virginia (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

Notre Dame excited its fan base with a sound 38-3 thumping of Texas at home, awakening the echoes. Fans were quick to take to Twitter and Facebook, declaring the Irish back with all sorts of quips via meme. Virginia stumbled on the road at UCLA, and it wasn't as close as the 34-16 score indicates. It was close enough for some, though, as a late UVA touchdown led to a backdoor cover. These teams meet for the first time since 1989, and this isn't expected to be close. The Irish were an 11-point favorite as of Friday afternoon, and money has been slowly trickling in on the road faves. The total has also been driven down from 49 1/2 to 47 1/2. Notre Dame is still 2-5 ATS in its past seven dating back to last season, but one of those covers was last week. UVA is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight overall, and 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 against a team with a winning record. However, at home the Cavs are just 1-4-1 ATS in their past six visits from a team with a winning mark.

Pittsburgh at Akron (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

Pitt zips over Interstate 76 to InfoCision Stadium in Akron for a battle against the Zips. The Panthers look to move to 2-0, but they'll have to do it Saturday, and the rest of the season, without 2014 ACC Player of the Year RB James Conner, who had knee surgery to repair a torn medial collateral ligament suffered in the opening win against Youngstown State. Freshman Qadree Allison stepped up with 207 yards, while Chris James might also be back. Akron was embarrassed 41-3 at Oklahoma last week, but likely get a boost from knowing they won 21-10 at Pittsburgh a season ago. In a road game and without Conner, it might be tough for the Panthers to cover a two-touchdown spread, although there is still ample talent on the Pittsburgh roster.

Other ACC teams in action

Howard at Boston College (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m.)

Furman at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

North Carolina Central at Duke (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

North Carolina A&T at North Carolina (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

Eastern Kentucky at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)