Rhodyjoe's Season Long Selection Thread

[rhodyjoe]

I just love the NFL preseason. While most back away from the preseason games I embrace them with a totally different strategy then I do for the regular season. So far this 2015 preseason I am
5-1.

[BettorsChat]

5-1 nice job!

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th
NFL

Point Total Under 40(-110)
BUFFALO vs CLEVELAND
Preseason Week #2

We saw last week how good the starters for the Bills can be on the defensive side of the ball. Cam Newton couldn’t do much against their defense and had to settle with 0 points before Derek Anderson entered. Anderson is a great backup quarterback. Johnny Manziel on the other hand, I don’t have nearly as much confidence with him. Rex Ryan cannot be happy with how they let Anderson move the ball with ease. He just got done barking about how their defense can be compared to the 2000 Ravens and 2009 Jets. Looking at last weeks play, there seems to be some depth issues there if that is what they’re going to open the season. Injuries are going to happen, that is inevitable in the NFL, so second stringers are extremely important. Let’s wait and see how it unfolds for the Bills though, but I’m confident their defense will at least be a top 10 unit by seasons end.

I don’t see the Bills amounting to much even though there is some hype associated with them. Rex Ryan is off in lala land again thinking this is a Super Bowl team, but of course don’t buy into anything he says. I expect to see Manziel get plenty of playing time tonight, before giving way to Thad Lewis. I don’t know how the guy manages to stick on a team, but he’s here in Cleveland. And now with the injury to Connor Shaw, Lewis might make the team and stick around for longer than anticipated. I see this game as an ugly, typical kind of preseason game. Low scoring seems about right, so I’m going to make a play on the UNDER 40.

Point Total Over 40(-110)
DETROIT vs WASHINGTON

The Redskins have some question marks at the quarterback position, but for the preseason, they have a pretty nice rotation of signal callers. This is the same reason I had for the Philadelphia Eagles. They didn’t have a quarterback in action in week 1 that is going to bring them to a Super Bowl or anything, but they can move the sticks against the backups. That is what you get with the Redskins. Kirk Cousins is in fact a preseason MVP. This has compiled more MVP awards in the preseason than any other guy I know. Cousins has looked good in the regular season as well, so backups haven’t been much of a problem for him. Cousins finished with 12 of 14 passing, including 154 yards and a 4-yard touchdown run after a fake. He led the Redskins to 17 of their 20 points.

The Lions don’t have a bad rotation at the quarterback position either. We saw what Stafford did last week in just one series. I suspect he’ll get an extra series or two from last week. The Lions are counting on Stafford to elevate his game even more this season. He needs to be the quarterback that can come up clutch and bring the Lions deep in the playoffs. So far he has been erratic regarding clutchness, but if Abdullah pans out how we think he’s going to, then there are no excuses for Stafford. Following Stafford will be Kellen Moore and Dan Orlovsky. Moore looked bad last week, and Orlovsky was on point. They are in a competition for the backup role and Orlovsky won that last week. I expect another quality start from Orlovsky and Moore should bounce back from that poor start. He has looked great in previous preseasons the last two years. I see a lot of quarterbacks in this game that are going to take advantage of the backups. Could be some points, so I like the OVER 40.

Preseason
5-1-0 = .833 +4.80 units

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th
NFL

WASHINGTON to Win -2.5(-110)
DETROIT vs WASHINGTON

Detroit had an easy win at home last week over the New York Jets but this is their first road contest. Detroit has some defensive injuries and one of the main things to focus on in Thursday's game will be the defensive snaps given to some of the reserve linebackers who are fighting for a shot to make the roster. Star WR Calvin Johnson didn’t play last week and won't see much time tonight, if any. Lions defensive tackle Haloti Ngata is also out for this game. The Washington Redskins got a road win last week and now play their home opener. Washington has a terrific QB rotation for August with RG3, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy. Cousins stood out against Cleveland's second stringers last week; now McCoy gets his chance as the second man in after Robert Griffin III. Washington's defense proved stingy against the run last week and looks much improved with depth, so all the cards favor the home team. Take Washington for the win and cover.

Preseason
5-1-0 = .833 +4.80 units

[rhodyjoe]

August 20th Results
NFL

Point Total Under 40(-110) Won 21
BUFFALO vs CLEVELAND

Point Total Over 40(-110) Loss 38
DETROIT vs WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON to Win -2.5(-110) Won 21-17
DETROIT vs WASHINGTON

Preseason
7-2-0 = .777 +7.00 units

[rhodyjoe]

August 23rd
NFL
Preseason Week #2

GREEN BAY to Win +2.5(-110)
GREEN BAY vs PITTSBURGH

TENNESSEE to Win -2.5(-110)
ST. LOUIS vs TENNESSEE


Preseason
7-2-0 = .777 +7.00 units

[rhodyjoe]

Rams vs. Titans Pick
Mariota has to perform in the preseason and the start of the regular season because there is a guy breathing down his neck ready to take his spot. I can guarantee you that after the Titans drafted Mariota that Zach Mettenberger felt extra motivated to prove to the organization that their starting quarterback is already on the roster. Mettenberger didn’t definitely prove that he can be a franchise QB last season, but it was his rookie year and he was tossed into the fire in Tennessee. For a 6th round selection in his rookie campaign, a 8:7 touchdown to interception ratio with 1,412 yards for a guy that didn’t take over the starting duties until October is pretty good.

Mettenberger will enter the game following Mariota, and I do expect him to compete and be motivated to look good, especially on national television. For some players there is no motivation in preseason games, for Mettenberger I do see a chip on his shoulder. Look for him with something to prove against the second stringers on the Rams. The Titans’ third option at quarterback is a veteran that has been around the block a few times. Charlie Whitehurst claim to fame was leading the Seahawks to the playoffs when they had a .500 record. That was one dreadful year for the division, but they ended up winning it and knocked the Saints off in the first round game. Remember the beast mode run from Marshawn Lynch? I give the lean to the Titans in this game at home. Like the majority of preseason games I bet on, I don’t love it, but it’s a bet to keep things interesting while watching the game Sunday night.

Packers vs. Steelers Pick
The Steelers are one of those outside teams, a tier 2 team I suppose you could say, in their bid for the Super Bowl this season. The Packers are right there and one of the favorites once again to be there. Other than a couple of plays here and there, they would have been in the Super Bowl last year against the Patriots. However, they ultimately were watching the Patriots win it all from home. The Packers issue last season, and for the last couple, has been their offensive line. Without much depth, they’ve had to shuffle players around and hope for the best. Thankfully the Packers had a player like Rodgers who is excellent at evading the pass rush. Rodgers will take the snaps for most of the first quarter, with backup Scott Tolzien taking over following Rodgers. There are worst backups out there, but if Rodgers is down for any significant time, the Packers are going to have problems with Tolzien starting.

If Brett Hundley works out, he may be the backup in the future for the Packers. Right now he’ll have to prove his worth playing late in preseason games. He has some talent, but I was never impressed with him in college. He was in an offense at UCLA that threw a lot of short and intermediate routes, whenever they did go deep he was often inaccurate. If you want to talk about bad quarterbacks though, look no further than Landry Jones of the Steelers. Jones is another reject of the Big 12 Conference.

Playing under Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, Jones was adequate in the type of offense they ran and against Big 12 defenses. He will make a nice pass and then bounce a ball off the turf or sail a ball over the head of a target. There is no real consistency. In college you can get away with that, in the NFL you need to take advantage of your opportunities, and Landry simply hasn’t. The Steelers activated Bruce Gradkowski from the PUP list but I expect a rusty appearance from him, if he gets much action at all. I can’t say I really like this game, but I find it difficult to back a team that is going to be led by Landry Jones for the majority of it. Packers +2.5 is my play here.

[rhodyjoe]

August 23rd Results
NFL
Preseason Week #2

GREEN BAY to Win +2.5(-110) Loss 19-24
GREEN BAY vs PITTSBURGH

TENNESSEE to Win -2.5(-110) Won 27-14
ST. LOUIS vs TENNESSEE


Preseason
8-3-0 = .727 +6.95 units

[rhodyjoe]

August 24th
NFL

TAMPA BAY -2.5 (-115)
CINCINNATI vs TAMPA BAY

A good start from Winston here would give the Buccaneers’ rookie signal caller a little more confidence moving down training camp. I believe that Winston, when he is confident, can play very well. When he isn’t fully confident, he can look very vulnerable. This is why I don’t see him becoming an elite player in the NFL. There is a reason why this game is on MNF, and it’s because of Jameis Winston. Mariota was on primetime last night, now it’s Winston’s turn to take the stage. He hasn’t managed to have any off the field issues yet, in fact, it has been pretty quiet on the Winston front in that regard. I do like taking the Bucs in preseason games because of the guy behind Winston, who may be taking over for him if he isn’t fire early in the season, or at least shows improvements. I don’t feel like Mike Glennon is a bad quarterback at all and has sort of gotten shafted in the Josh McCown era and now Winston. He nevertheless will be playing tonight behind Winston, which is where I see the Bucs making their money in this game.

An interesting backup for the Bengals in this game, and a well known quarterback, and well known college quarterback. None other than AJ McCarron out of Alabama, who did great things there, will enter after Andy Dalton tonight. This will be his first ever appearance in the NFL on the field. I said coming out of college that McCarron would be a lifetime backup QB in the NFL. I’m not sold on him. Sure, all he did is win at Alabama, but so did Tim Tebow at Florida. I think the edge has to go to the Bucs in this matchup. They are at home and I really like the edge Glennon has on McCarron. I’ll take the Buccaneers in this one.


Preseason
8-3-0 = .727 +6.95 units

[BettorsChat]

8-3 good job!

[rhodyjoe]

August 24th Results
NFL

TAMPA BAY -2.5 (-115) Won 25-11
CINCINNATI vs TAMPA BAY

9-3-0 = .750 = +7.93

[BettorsChat]

Kicking ass and taking names!

[rhodyjoe]

August 28th

New England Patriots PK (-110) over @ Carolina Panthers

It has been a slow start for Tom Brady in the pre-season, but expect a longer look and more reps to be the cure to getting him back into his comfort zone. New England will treat this as a business-like regular season match-up and look for their wealth of veteran leadership to step up and deliver a solid performance. When Brady leaves the game around the half, don’t expect much of a drop-off when he hands the reins to Garoppolo. The youngster has been a stud so far in pre-season action, and his Pats simply have too much firepower for a decimated Panthers squad. Ignore the hoopla surrounding the Patriots’ off-field issues and roll with New England tonight in this regular season tune-up.

Detroit Lions +2(-110) over @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Motivation in preseason games is the number one key to handicapping. Who do I think is going to be more motivated for this game? I say the Jaguars.
Chad Henne is still a Jaguar and you know I can’t blame him the way he’s played. He is what he is. Henne hasn’t had a lot to work with in Jacksonville in his time here and he’s done what he can. He isn’t going to go out and pass for 300 yards to often but he is the epitome of a game manager. I understand the Jags are looking for more than a game manager which is why they have Bortles in town. But Henne is perfect for these spots in the preseason taking advantage of backups on the other team. Jeff Tuel also provides insurance at the 3rd spot. I expect the Jags to win this game and be a little hungrier for the W than the Lions will be this evening.

This Forum
9-3-0 = .750 = +7.93

[rhodyjoe]

August 28th Results
NFL

New England Patriots PK (-110) over @ Carolina Panthers Won 17-16

Detroit Lions +2(-110) over @ Jacksonville Jaguars Loss 17-22


At This Forum
10-4-0 =.714 +7.83

[rhodyjoe]

August 29th
NFL Preseason

Total: Under 48.5(-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers will go with Rodgers and I assume Scott Tolzien is going to finish up the duration of the game. Mark Sanchez is going to get the brunt of the snaps for the Eagles. The total is high at 48.5 and giving the weather conditions I’m going with the Under.

San Diego Chargers +1(-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers

I kept coming up San Diego +1 on this game. It did not feel right so I ran the game with 50,000 different player combinations through my NFL program. The vast majority of times the game came out San Diego +1. Si there it is.

At This Forum
10-4-0 =.714 +7.83