Tweet
NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLIX
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (-1, 47.5)
Seahawks’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ quick strikes
If the Super Bowl were the fabled race between the Tortoise and the Hare, Seattle would be cast in the role of the slow-and-steady Tortoise. The Seahawks know a football game is a marathon – not a sprint – and have been methodical in their approach on offense. However, when you’re playing a team as explosive offensively as the Patriots, a slow start can quickly put you behind on the scoreboard and alter even the best-laid game plans.
Seattle has managed just seven points in the first quarter over its last three games – a lone first-quarter touchdown and extra point against Carolina in the Divisional Round. That’s nothing new for this team, which averaged only 4.1 points per first quarter on the season.
The biggest culprit when it comes to the Seahawks dragging their cleats out of the gate is quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been half-asleep in the opening frame this year, with an 82.3 QB rating, just two touchdowns, and picking up only 6.67 yards per completion on a 59.6 completion percentage. He’s also been sacked 10 times in the first quarter – 24 percent of his 42 total sacks taken on the year have happened in the first 15 minutes.
The Patriots showed just how quick they can pile on the points against the Colts in the AFC Championship, striking for two scores in the opening frame – deflated ball or not – which put Indianapolis on its heels and set the tone for a blowout victory. New England was eighth in the NFL in average first-quarter points (5.5) and heats up faster than Rob Gronkowski erotica, topping the AFC with an average of 16.2 points in the first half.
This is a veteran team that knows how to put its foot on opponent’s throats. If Seattle does fall behind early, the Seahawks may have to put the game solely on Wilson’s shoulders – not exactly where they would like it to rest with Wilson throwing four INTs in the NFC title game.
Patriots’ problems with pass-catching RBs vs. Seahawks’ dynamic RBs
We know the Seahawks aren’t afraid to dig deep into the playbook on the biggest stages and have shown some creativity on offense in the past. Seattle used Percy Harvin as anything but a wide receiver in Super Bowl XLVIII and drew up some trickery for WR Jermaine Kearse to hit QB Russell Wilson on a 17-yard pass in the Super Bowl matchup with the Broncos this September.
Don’t be surprised if running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin find their way to slot against the Patriots this Sunday. Lynch, for all his power-rushing prowess, proved he could play with finesse, reeling in 37 passes for 367 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and four touchdowns – ranked fourth among RB in receiving scores. Turbin is also a massive X-factor in this game. He only caught the ball 16 times for 186 yards – 11.6 yards per catch – and scored twice through the air this season.
New England has had a tough time containing pass catching running backs all season. The Patriots were hit for 678 yards receiving from running backs – 7.8 yards per catch and run – and gave up six passing touchdowns to RBs-turned-WRs, which ranks third most in the entire NFL. New England ranked 19th in YAC (yards after the catch) allowed, with 123.5 per game. Seattle ranked second in average yards after the catch, with 6.84 YAC per game.
The Patriots allowed Ravens RB Justin Forsett to score off a catch in the Divisional Round, Green Bay RBs James Starks and Eddie Lacy to combine for 51 yards on four catches in Week 13, Lions RB Theo Riddick to grab three balls for 40 yards in Week 12, Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, Chicago RB Matt Forte posted 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.
Patriots and Seahawks' penalty problems vs. Super Bowl total
No two teams in the NFL have forced more flags to fly than the Seahawks and Patriots this season. Between the two Super Bowl contenders, refs have blown the whistle 277 times for a combined total of 2,292 free yards just handed over to opponents.
The worst offense for New England has been when defending the pass. The Patriots have been flagged for defensive pass interference 11 times in their 18 games (178 yards lost) and led the NFL in defensive holding with 16 infractions equaling 79 yards against. Sprinkle in four penalties for illegal contact – 20 more yards – and the Pats are gift wrapping massive gains for opposing passers.
For Seattle, it’s been a proverbial salad bar of flags and infractions but most of these are coming in the trenches. The Seahawks were whistled for 33 times for false starts, coughing up 160 yards. They handed over 189 yards to opponents on 20 offensive holding calls and 55 yards on 11 defensive holding penalties, as well as 63 yards on 13 defensive offside penalties.
The head referee for the Big Game is nine-year NFL veteran Bill Vinovich, who isn’t a trigger happy official, with his 2014 games averaging 12.63 penalties for 107.56 total yards (NFL average: 13.21 / 110.70). He’s been that way for his career as well, averaging 12.19 flags for 101.85 yards (NFL average in that span: 12.82 / 106.61).
Total bettors can look at these numbers two ways: 1. Both teams get penalized a lot, extra yards and the clock stops – great for Over bettors. 2. NFL doesn’t want its showcase game bogged down with stoppages and having Vinovich letting some things go could help the defense – leaning to the Under.
Seattle went 2-3 O/U in the five games in which Vinovich was the referee since 2012, including Week 3 and 14 this season. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 34 yards in Week 3’s win over Denver but were rung up a season-high 14 times for 105 yards against in Week 14’s win at San Francisco. The Patriots were 2-0 O/U in games in which he was the ref this season, including the Divisional win over the Ravens that saw seven calls for 60 yards against New England. The other game with Vinovich holding the whistle, the Patriots were called for five penalties for 51 yards in a win over Miami in Week 15.
In the games in which New England was flagged for nine or more penalties this season, the Patriots finished 5-2 Over/Under. For the Seahawks, their six games with nine or more flags thrown resulted in a 4-2 Over/Under count.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (-1, 47.5)
Seahawks’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ quick strikes
If the Super Bowl were the fabled race between the Tortoise and the Hare, Seattle would be cast in the role of the slow-and-steady Tortoise. The Seahawks know a football game is a marathon – not a sprint – and have been methodical in their approach on offense. However, when you’re playing a team as explosive offensively as the Patriots, a slow start can quickly put you behind on the scoreboard and alter even the best-laid game plans.
Seattle has managed just seven points in the first quarter over its last three games – a lone first-quarter touchdown and extra point against Carolina in the Divisional Round. That’s nothing new for this team, which averaged only 4.1 points per first quarter on the season.
The biggest culprit when it comes to the Seahawks dragging their cleats out of the gate is quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been half-asleep in the opening frame this year, with an 82.3 QB rating, just two touchdowns, and picking up only 6.67 yards per completion on a 59.6 completion percentage. He’s also been sacked 10 times in the first quarter – 24 percent of his 42 total sacks taken on the year have happened in the first 15 minutes.
The Patriots showed just how quick they can pile on the points against the Colts in the AFC Championship, striking for two scores in the opening frame – deflated ball or not – which put Indianapolis on its heels and set the tone for a blowout victory. New England was eighth in the NFL in average first-quarter points (5.5) and heats up faster than Rob Gronkowski erotica, topping the AFC with an average of 16.2 points in the first half.
This is a veteran team that knows how to put its foot on opponent’s throats. If Seattle does fall behind early, the Seahawks may have to put the game solely on Wilson’s shoulders – not exactly where they would like it to rest with Wilson throwing four INTs in the NFC title game.
Patriots’ problems with pass-catching RBs vs. Seahawks’ dynamic RBs
We know the Seahawks aren’t afraid to dig deep into the playbook on the biggest stages and have shown some creativity on offense in the past. Seattle used Percy Harvin as anything but a wide receiver in Super Bowl XLVIII and drew up some trickery for WR Jermaine Kearse to hit QB Russell Wilson on a 17-yard pass in the Super Bowl matchup with the Broncos this September.
Don’t be surprised if running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin find their way to slot against the Patriots this Sunday. Lynch, for all his power-rushing prowess, proved he could play with finesse, reeling in 37 passes for 367 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and four touchdowns – ranked fourth among RB in receiving scores. Turbin is also a massive X-factor in this game. He only caught the ball 16 times for 186 yards – 11.6 yards per catch – and scored twice through the air this season.
New England has had a tough time containing pass catching running backs all season. The Patriots were hit for 678 yards receiving from running backs – 7.8 yards per catch and run – and gave up six passing touchdowns to RBs-turned-WRs, which ranks third most in the entire NFL. New England ranked 19th in YAC (yards after the catch) allowed, with 123.5 per game. Seattle ranked second in average yards after the catch, with 6.84 YAC per game.
The Patriots allowed Ravens RB Justin Forsett to score off a catch in the Divisional Round, Green Bay RBs James Starks and Eddie Lacy to combine for 51 yards on four catches in Week 13, Lions RB Theo Riddick to grab three balls for 40 yards in Week 12, Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, Chicago RB Matt Forte posted 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.
Patriots and Seahawks' penalty problems vs. Super Bowl total
No two teams in the NFL have forced more flags to fly than the Seahawks and Patriots this season. Between the two Super Bowl contenders, refs have blown the whistle 277 times for a combined total of 2,292 free yards just handed over to opponents.
The worst offense for New England has been when defending the pass. The Patriots have been flagged for defensive pass interference 11 times in their 18 games (178 yards lost) and led the NFL in defensive holding with 16 infractions equaling 79 yards against. Sprinkle in four penalties for illegal contact – 20 more yards – and the Pats are gift wrapping massive gains for opposing passers.
For Seattle, it’s been a proverbial salad bar of flags and infractions but most of these are coming in the trenches. The Seahawks were whistled for 33 times for false starts, coughing up 160 yards. They handed over 189 yards to opponents on 20 offensive holding calls and 55 yards on 11 defensive holding penalties, as well as 63 yards on 13 defensive offside penalties.
The head referee for the Big Game is nine-year NFL veteran Bill Vinovich, who isn’t a trigger happy official, with his 2014 games averaging 12.63 penalties for 107.56 total yards (NFL average: 13.21 / 110.70). He’s been that way for his career as well, averaging 12.19 flags for 101.85 yards (NFL average in that span: 12.82 / 106.61).
Total bettors can look at these numbers two ways: 1. Both teams get penalized a lot, extra yards and the clock stops – great for Over bettors. 2. NFL doesn’t want its showcase game bogged down with stoppages and having Vinovich letting some things go could help the defense – leaning to the Under.
Seattle went 2-3 O/U in the five games in which Vinovich was the referee since 2012, including Week 3 and 14 this season. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 34 yards in Week 3’s win over Denver but were rung up a season-high 14 times for 105 yards against in Week 14’s win at San Francisco. The Patriots were 2-0 O/U in games in which he was the ref this season, including the Divisional win over the Ravens that saw seven calls for 60 yards against New England. The other game with Vinovich holding the whistle, the Patriots were called for five penalties for 51 yards in a win over Miami in Week 15.
In the games in which New England was flagged for nine or more penalties this season, the Patriots finished 5-2 Over/Under. For the Seahawks, their six games with nine or more flags thrown resulted in a 4-2 Over/Under count.
Comment