NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 11 - Monday, December 15)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 14


Manziel effect has bettors backing Browns

With Johnny Manziel making his first start for the Cleveland Browns bettors seem to be buying into the hype, with the Browns moving to -2.

The Browns opened as 1-point home underdogs versus the visiting Cincinnati Bengals, but after word got out that Manziel would start, the line quickly moved two points to put Cleveland at -1. They moved another whole point Sunday morning to the current number of -2.


Bills will try to extend hot under streak

The Buffalo Bills have gone under the game total for five consecutive games and will try to make it six when they host the Green Bay Packers early Sunday afternoon.

The total for Sunday's game is currently sitting at 50, the highest number for a Bills game all season.

Buffalo is the league's best under bet at 2-11 over/under this season, while the Packers are one of the league's best over bets at 10-3 O/U, but have gone 1-2 O/U in their last two games.


Raiders surprisingly good bet in Kansas City

The lowly Oakland Raiders have been a surprisingly good bet when they visit the Chiefs, going 7-1 against the spread in their last eight trips to Kansas City.

The Raiders are currently 10.5-point road underdogs for Sunday's showdown in Kansas City. Despite just two wins this year, Oakland is 7-6 ATS, while the Chiefs are 8-5 ATS.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 14


Strong winds expected at Arrowhead

There are strong 16 mile per hour winds expected to be gusting at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City for Sunday's matchup between the Chiefs and Oakland Raiders.

The wind will be blowing towards the northern end zone. There will also be a 14 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 50's for the game.

The Chiefs are currently 10.5-point home favorites with the total sitting at 41.5.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 15

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Monday Night Football: Saints at Bears
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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3, 54)

Despite owning identical records, one team is tied for the lead while the other resides in the basement in their respective divisions. The New Orleans Saints look to maintain at least a share of the top spot in the NFC South when they visit the NFC North cellar-dwelling Chicago Bears on Monday night. New Orleans enters Week 15 tied with Atlanta atop their division even though last Sunday's 41-10 loss to Carolina was its fourth defeat in five games, with all four losses coming at home.

Notoriously bad on the road, the Saints have won their last two games away from the Superdome - including a 35-32 triumph at Pittsburgh in Week 13. Chicago, which has rushed for a total of 48 yards in its last two games, has dropped four of its last six contests - allowing at least 34 points in each setback. The latest defeat, a 41-28 decision against Dallas, halted the Bears' two-game home winning streak.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Bears as 3-point home dogs, though some had +2.5. The total opened at 54.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - LB David Hawthorne (Probable, hip), DE Akiem Hicks (Probable, ankle), LB Junior Galette (Questionable, knee), WR Robert Meachem (Questionable, ankle). Bears - DT Jeremiah Ratliff (Questionable, knee), S Chris Conte (Questionable, back), K Robbie Gould (Questionable, quad).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 12 mph and a 66 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (+2.25) + Bears (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bears +2.25

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 10-3 O/U): New Orleans' defense has played a major role in the team's struggles this season, ranking 31st in yards allowed per game at 398.7. The club has yielded at least 27 points and an average of 183.8 rushing yards in its last five contests. Coach Sean Payton was particularly critical of the unit after the loss to Carolina. "Our tackling was awful. (The Panthers) were almost near 300 yards rushing. It was awful," he said. "On top of that, you can't make dumb mistakes like jump offside when a team is getting ready to punt or kick a field goal."

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 8-5 O/U): After allowing 50-plus points in back-to-back losses at New England and Green Bay, the Bears appeared to right the ship, yielding 13 in home victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay. But Chicago's defense went back to being porous as it yielded a total of 75 points in setbacks against Detroit and Dallas. Injuries to regulars have been a factor, forcing several rookies into extended action, but defensive end Jared Allen refuses to use that as an excuse. "You're in the NFL. By the time I got to the NFL, I'd been playing football every year since I was eight," he said. "That's a lot of years of football. They're young for the NFL, but it's still football."

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.
* Saints are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 6-1 in Saints last seven vs. NFC.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 60 percent of bettors are backing the Saints.


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[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Breakdown - Part 2

December 15, 2014


1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 Below is a quick look at the seven bowl games of the postseason scheduled from Wednesday Dec. 23 through Friday Dec. 26.

Boca Raton Bowl - Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 6:00 p.m. ET
Boca Raton Bowl Betting Line: Marshall -10

The Thundering Herd were one win shy of playing in a New Year's Six bowl, and it will be interesting to see how motivated they are going to be to play in this game. This isn't nearly as good of a Northern Illinois team as we are used to seeing, but it is a team which won a much underrated MAC this year.

Poinsettia Bowl - Navy vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 9:30 p.m. ET
Poinsettia Bowl Betting Line: San Diego State -2

Donnel Pumphrey is the star of the show for the Aztecs, and it will be interesting to see whether he or Keenan Reynolds does more for his team on the ground. The Aztecs clearly have the better of the two defenses in this game, and they have home field advantage on their side as well.

Bahamas Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 12:00 p.m. ET
Bahamas Bowl Betting Line: Western Kentucky -3

The Hilltoppers were awesome to watch this year, as they flew up and down the field and really had the ability to stop no one on the other side of the ball. Brandon Doughty is one of the better statistical quarterbacks in th nation, and he could shine in this one. Central Michigan's 7-5 record is a complete farce outside of its win on the road against Northern Illinois.

Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. Rice
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl Betting Line: Rice -1.5

Fresno State has no defense whatsoever, and this could be a huge problem in this game against a Rice offense which really has the ability to light it up. The last time we saw the Owls, they had 76 points dropped on them by Louisiana Tech. Driphus Jackson will have to have the game of his life for Rice in this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Friday, Dec. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Line: Louisiana Tech -6

Illinois feels like a weird team in a bowl game this year. The Illini went 6-6, but they only just squeaked into a bowl game because of the weaknesses of the rest of the Big Ten. La Tech was just short of the MAC title, but this might be an even better game for it to try to prove itself against one of the power conference teams in the nation.

Quick Lane Bowl - BYU vs. Memphis
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET
Quick Lane Bowl Betting Line: North Carolina -3

Expect to see a lot of offense in this one, as these two defenses both struggled quite a bit this year. Marquise Williams and Gary Nova don't look anything like one another, but they both hold the keys to their teams' success in this game at Ford Field.

St. Petersburg Bowl - NC State vs. UCF
Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00 p.m. ET
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Line: UCF -2

The Knights are taking a big step backwards from last year's game against Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is still a big game for them after getting a share of the AAC crown this year. NC State ended up being a rather average team in the ACC, and it doesn't really have any signature wins which suggest to us that it can win this game.