The Bum's 2014-15 Bowl Betting Results - Trends -Stats- Best Bets Bowl Season Thread

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet

December 29, 2014


**Notre Dame vs. Louisiana State**

-- I often talk about location and motivation as key factors in handicapping bowl games. In this instance, I would normally be concerned about LSU's motivation because it is accustomed to playing in more important bowl games during Les Miles's 10-year tenure. However, I don't think we have that here because even though Notre Dame's star doesn't shine as bright as it once did, it is still one of college football's most storied programs. Therefore, I think the Tigers will be plenty motivated to face the Fighting Irish.

-- These schools will collide Tuesday afternoon in Nashville at the Music City Bowl. As of Monday afternoon, most books had LSU (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) installed as a 7.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 52.5. The Irish are +240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half bets, LSU is favored by 4.5 with a total of 27.

-- Notre Dame (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) has been an underdog four times this season, going 2-2 ATS with one outright win over Stanford (17-14) at home on Oct. 4.

-- LSU has been a single-digit favorite four times, posting a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. -- LSU went 4-4 both SU and ATS against bowl-bound competition, besting Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17).

-- LSU is third in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 16.4 points per game. The offense has proven to be one-dimensional, however, really struggling to pass the ball. Starting quarterback Anthony Jennings has completed just 48.8 percent of his passes for 1,460 yards with a 10/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When Jennings does throw, he's usually trying to find WR Travin Duval, who had 37 receptions for 758 yards and seven TDs during the regular season.

-- LSU true freshman RB Leonard Fournette has rushed for a team-high 891 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Terrence Magee has run for 545 yards and three scores, averaging 5.2 YPC. Senior RB Kenny Hilliard was believed to be out for the season with a shoulder injury, but Miles has declared him 100-percent healthy. Hilliard has rushed for 431 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC.

-- Brian Kelly's team won its first six games, only to lose five of its last six. Notre Dame brings a four-game losing streak to Nashville. Two of those defeats came at home vs. Northwestern and Louisville. The Irish have failed to cover the number in five consecutive contests.

-- In its regular-season finale, Notre Dame got smashed by a 49-14 count at Southern Cal as a 4.5-point underdog. Junior quarterback Everett Golson was benched after throwing an interception, which was his 21st turnover committed in the last nine games. In relief of Golson, Malik Zaire completed 9-of-20 passes for 170 yards and had a rushed TD. Zaire will get his first career start against LSU, though Golson is expected to play as well. Golson threw for 3,355 yards during the regular season, posting a 29/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But his TD-INT ratio was 7/7 during the four-game losing streak.

-- Notre Dame went 4-4 straight up against eight bowl-bound opponents.

-- Notre Dame's defense has been hit hard by injuries. This unit has given up 30 points or more in seven straight games.

-- The 'over' is just 7-5 overall for Notre Dame, but it has cashed in five straight games and six of its last seven.

-- The 'under' is 8-4 overall for LSU, cashing in five consecutive games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Georgia vs. Louisville**

-- Georgia and Louisville are set to collide Tuesday at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. As of Monday night, most books had Georgia (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) listed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 57. The Cardinals are +230 on the money line. For first -half bets, UGA is favored by four with a total of 28.5.

-- Georgia will be without its offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who took the head-coaching gig at Colorado State last week. Mark Richt will call the offensive plays in this game.

-- Where is UGA's psyche for this game? No one can know for sure. Until Missouri rallied to beat Arkansas on Nov. 28, the Bulldogs were hoping to be in the SEC Championship Game and they maintained hopes of making the College Football Playoff. When those factors were taken out of the equation, Georgia lost at home to Georgia Tech 24 hours later. The Yellow Jackets went into Athens and won a 30-24 decision in overtime, hooking up their backers as 10.5-point road underdogs. A pair of fumbles inside the red zone during regulation proved to be UGA's undoing. Nick Chubb rushed for 129 yards and one TD in the losing effort.

-- Chubb enjoyed a breakout freshman campaign. With Todd Gurley missing six games due to a suspension and an injury, Chubb rushed for a team-high 1,281 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC.

-- Georgia senior QB Hutson Mason completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 2,019 yards with a 20/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- UGA went 3-1 both SU and ATS in four games this season as a single-digit 'chalk.'

-- Georgia has lost in three of its four previous postseason appearances, including a 24-19 setback against Nebraska in last year's Gator Bowl.

-- Louisville (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won three in a row, including a 44-40 win over Kentucky as a 13.5-point home favorite in the regular-season finale for both schools. This game featured seven lead changes, the last of which came when U of L running back Brandon Radcliff scored on a four-yard TD run with 2:47 remaining. Kyle Bolin, a redshirt freshman who began the season as the team's third-string QB, saw the first significant playing time of his career. He was outstanding, throwing for 381 yards and three TDs with one interception.

-- Although Bobby Petrino has been non-committal, it appears that Bolin will get his first career start against the Bulldogs. Will Gardner, the starting QB, was lost for the season with a knee injury in mid-November. The job was left to true freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who has 850 passing yards and a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. He's also a major threat with his legs, rushing for 173 yards and five TDs. Bonnafon left the win over UK with a knee injury, but he's been upgraded to 'probable' and will probably get the bulk of the snaps under center.

-- Radcliff has rushed for a team-best 648 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.2 YPC. The best playmaker on the U of L offense is WR DaVante Parker, who had 35 receptions for 735 yards and five TDs despite missing the first seven games. Parker had at least 132 receiving yards in four of the five games he played in. He had eight catches for 214 yards against Florida State and in the win over UK, the senior had six catches for 180 yards and three TDs.

-- Louisville has been an underdog three times this year, going 2-1 ATS with one outright win at Notre Dame.

-- Louisville's defense is run by first-year coordinator Todd Grantham, who spent the four previous years as Richt's DC at UGA. U of L ranks sixth nationally in total defense and third against the run. This unit gives up just 20.5 PPG. This 'D' is led by All-American Gerod Holliman, who led the country in interceptions with 14.

-- U of L senior running back Michael Dyer has been ruled academically ineligible and won't play vs. UGA. This ends a long career filled with many ups and downs. Dyer was the Most Valuable Player of the BCS Championship Game as true freshman when Auburn beat Oregon. He was booted from the AU program before playing another snap, however, and then got dismissed from the Arkansas State program before ever playing a down. He has been with the Cardinals the last two years, but injuries were a major issue in 2013. This season Dyer rushed for 481 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.4 YPC.

-- Georgia will be without LB Leonard Floyd after he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. Floyd led UGA in sacks with six.

-- The 'under' is 6-5-1 overall for U of L, but it has seen the 'over' cash in four consecutive games.

-- The 'over' is 9-3 overall for UGA, but the 'under' has cashed in two of its last three games.

-- ESPN will provide television coverage at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Maryland vs. Stanford**

-- The Big Ten and Pac-12 will be represented in the Foster Farms Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, where Stanford and Maryland will do battle Tuesday night. As of Monday night, most betting shops had Stanford (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) listed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 48. Gamblers can go for a huge +450 payout by backing the Terrapins to win outright (risk $100 to win $450). For first-half wagers, the Cardinal is favored by 7.5 with a total of 24.

-- Maryland (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) is going bowling for a second straight season after winning seven games in its Big Ten debut. The Terrapins went 4-4 in league play, but they dropped their regular-season finale to Rutgers by a 41-38 score as 7.5-point home favorites.

-- Randy Edsall's team went 4-3 both SU and ATS in seven games as an underdog. This is Maryland's biggest underdog situation of the year. The Terps were only double-digit 'dogs once, losing to Michigan State 37-15 as 10.5-point home puppies.

-- Maryland is getting its best player back for the bowl game. Junior WR Stefon Diggs missed the last three games of the regular season due to a lacerated kidney. In nine games, Diggs had 52 catches for 654 yards and five TDs.

-- Maryland senior QB C.J. Brown has been able to stay healthy this season. Brown completed 53.2 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a 13/9 TD-INT ratio. Brown has rushed for a team-high 569 yards and seven TDs.

-- Stanford will be without its best offensive playmaker Ty Montgomery, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Montgomery had a team-high 61 receptions for 604 yards and three TDs. He also rushed for 128 yards and one score. Montgomery had 1,400 all-purpose yards during the regular season.

-- Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has completed 65.5 percent of his throws for 2,603 yards with a 17/8 TD-INT ratio.

-- Stanford is second in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 16.0 PPG. The Cardinal ranks fourth in total defense.

-- David Shaw's squad has been a double-digit favorite five times, producing a stellar 4-1 spread record.

-- The 'under' has been a monster money maker in Stanford games, cashing at a 9-2 overall clip.

-- The 'over' is 6-5-1 overall for Maryland, but the 'under' has been a winner in three of its last four games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Foster Farms Bowl, San Francisco 12/30
Stanford should have big crowd edge playing in Bay Area; their best WR Montgomery (61 catches) is out here. Cardinal split pair of Rose Bowls last two years, fair to question their enthusiasm for a lesser bowl, even if it is near home. Edsall is 3-3 in bowls, losing 31-20 to Marshall LY in his first bowl with Terps. Maryland is 3-4 in last seven games, with three of losses by 22+ points; Stanford is 3-5 as favorite this year- they won last two games by 21 points each, after losing three of previous four games. Shaw lost two of his three bowl games. Favorites won/covered this game four of last five years, with four of five staying under total.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte 12/30
Louisville DC Grantham was Georgia's DC the last four years; he should have great idea on Dawgs' personnel. Louisville scored 30+ points in its last five games, winning last three by 19-3-4 after losing to Florida State 42-31- they're 5-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Louisville won four of last five bowls,.with the loss in this game to NC State three years ago. Petrino is 4-3 in bowl games, Richt is 8-5 but lost three of last four, despite being favored in all four games- all three losses were by 5 or less points. Georgia allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they're 4-1 in games with single digit spreads. Faves covered 4 of last 5 Belk Bowls.

Music City Bowl, Nashville 12/30
Notre Dame gives backup QB Zaire his first career start here; Irish lost last four games, allowing 44.5 ppg- they gave up 244.8 rushing yards a game in last five games, bad news vs LSU team that ran for 264+ yards in its last three wins, including 384 in regular season finale vs A&M. ND is 3-2 in last five bowls, Kelly is 4-3 as bowl coach. SEC teams are 3-0 in this bowl season, are 21-7 in last 28 bowls. 14-9-1 against spread when favored. LSU split its last four bowls; Miles is 7-5 as bowl coach, 6-3 in Baton Rouge. Favorites won/covered four of last five Music City Bowls, with SEC teams winning last three by 6-14-8 points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 30

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Belk Bowl betting preview: Georgia vs. Louisville
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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Louisville Cardinals (+6.5, 56.6)

Game to be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

The 13th annual Belk Bowl will play host to two top 20 teams for the first time in its history when No. 13 Georgia and No. 20 Louisville meet for the first time. The Bulldogs, who are the first SEC team to be invited to Charlotte, N.C., enter the 50th bowl game in their proud history after winning eight of their final 10 contests. The Cardinals also finished the regular season strong by going 7-2 down the stretch, with the only losses coming to No. 2 Florida State and No. 18 Clemson.

In a season marked with a number of highs (routs of SEC East champion Missouri and Auburn) and lows (losses to six-win teams in South Carolina and Florida), Georgia running back Nick Chubb was one of the few constants. After losing Heisman Trophy hopeful Todd Gurley to a season-ending knee injury on Oct. 11, the SEC Freshman of the Year closed the year out by running for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of his seven starts. With another 100-yard performance against Louisville, Chubb can tie Bulldog legend Herschel Walker for the most such efforts by a Georgia freshman.

The Cardinals’ sixth-ranked total defense could enjoy a significant advantage considering defensive coordinator Todd Grantham served in the same role for the Bulldogs under Georgia coach Mark Richt from 2010-13. Louisville also boasts the third-best rushing defense in the country (93.7 yards) and has yielded only nine scores on the ground. The Cardinals are slightly less accomplished against the pass (31st, 199.6), but finished the regular season tied for first in FBS with 25 interceptions.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet to -7, before coming back down to the opening number. The total has held steady at 56.5

INJURY REPORT: Georgia - RB A.J. Turman (questionable Tuesday, toe), RB Keith Marshall (questionable Tuesday, ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (out Tuesday, suspension), LB Leonard Floyd (out, Tuesday). Louisville - QB Reggie Bonnafon (probable Tuesday, knee), RB Michael Dyer (out Tuesday, academics).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the low 40's for the game. There will be a 10 percent chance of rain with a five mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

ABOUT GEORGIA (9-3, 7-5 ATS, 9-3 O/U): Thanks in large part to Chubb (12) and Gurley (nine), Georgia ran for a conference-leading 35 rushing touchdowns – a total that trails only the 1971 Bulldog team that finished with 39. Hutson Mason, who was one of three Georgia quarterbacks to combine for a completion percentage of 68.1, saw his six-game streak without throwing an interception snapped on his final attempt in the Nov. 29 overtime loss to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs finished the regular season with a plus-15 turnover differential – tied for fourth in FBS – and scored 104 points off their 26 takeaways.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-3, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): Sophomore All-American safety Gerod Holliman emerged as the country’s best ball hawk in 2014 with 14 interceptions, matching the NCAA single-season record held by Al Worley of Washington in 1968 and becoming only the 11th player in NCAA history to record 12 or more in a season. The Cardinals’ offense also finished the season on a roll, scoring 30 or more points in five straight games. That streak coincided with the return of receiver DeVante Parker, who posted team-high totals of 35 catches, 735 yards and five touchdowns despite missing seven contests with a left toe injury.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Louisville is 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Over is 12-3 in Georgia's last 15 games following a SU loss.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Louisville's last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The majority of bettors are backing Georgia, with 63 percent of wagers on the Bulldogs -6.5.

[StarDust Bum]

2014-15 Bowl Betting Results

December 30, 2014


BOWL CONFERENCE STANDINGS

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)

ACC 3-4 4-3

American (AAC) 1-2 1-2

Big 10 2-2 2-2

Big 12 0-3 0-3

CUSA 4-1 3-2

Independent 1-1 1-1

Mid-American 1-3 2-2

Mountain West 2-4 2-4

Pac-12 3-0 1-2

SEC 3-0 3-0

Sun Belt 1-1 1-1


OVERALL GAME RESULTS
Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss
Favorite 10 11 7 14
Underdog 11 10 14 7
Over Under
11 10

2014-15 BOWL SCHEDULE - RESULTS

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS/Total

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Orleans Bowl Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5, 62.5 16-3 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Mexico Bowl Utah State vs Texas-El Paso 10, 45.5 21-6 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Las Vegas Bowl Utah vs Colorado State 3, 57 45-10 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Idaho Potato Bowl Western Michigan vs Air Force 2.5, 59 38-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 20 Camellia Bowl South Alabama vs Bowling Green 3.5, 55 33-28 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 22 Miami Beach Bowl Brigham Young vs Memphis 1.5, 56 55-48 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Marshall vs Northern Illinois 8.5, 68 52-23 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs San Diego State 3, 52 17-16 Underdog-Under

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Bahamas Bowl Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky 3.5, 68 49-48 Underdog-Over

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Hawai'i Bowl Fresno State vs Rice 1, 59 30-6 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 Heart of Dallas Bowl Illinois vs Louisiana Tech 7, 54.5 35-18 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Rutgers vs North Carolina 3.5, 72 40-21 Underdog-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State vs UCF 2, 47.5 34-27 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech 2, 49.5 33-17 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 27 Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State 7.5, 65 36-31 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 27 Independence Bowl Miami-Fla. vs South Carolina 3, 62 24-21 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 27 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs Penn State 3, 41 31-30 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs Southern California 7, 63 45-42 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 29 Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs West Virginia 3, 66.5 45-37 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 29 Russell Athletic Bowl Oklahoma vs Clemson 6, 49 40-6 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs Texas 7, 42.5 31-7 Favorite-Under

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs Louisiana State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Belk Bowl Georgia vs Louisville - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Foster Farms Bowl Maryland vs Stanford - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Peach Bowl Mississippi vs Texas Christian - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl Boise State vs Arizona - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Orange Bowl Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - - -
Thursday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Auburn vs Wisconsin - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl Michigan State vs Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl Missouri vs Minnesota - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl - National Semifinal Oregon vs Florida State - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl - National Semifinal Alabama vs Ohio State - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs Pittsburgh - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Taxslayer Bowl Iowa vs Tennessee - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Alamo Bowl Kansas State vs UCLA - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Cactus Bowl Washington vs Oklahoma State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 3 Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Florida - - -

Sunday, Jan. 4 Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State - - -

Monday, Jan. 12 National Championship Game TBD vs TBD - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet

December 30, 2014

**Ole Miss vs. Texas Christian**

-- The SEC and Big 12 will be pitted against each other Wednesday afternoon when Ole Miss and TCU collide in Atlanta at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. As of early Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Horned Frogs installed as a 3.5-point favorites with a total of 56.

-- Ole Miss (9-3 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) spent most of the season in the Top 10 of the national rankings thanks to a 7-0 start that included scalps of Alabama and five other bowl-bound teams. However, a 10-7 loss at LSU, a gut-wrenching setback at home to Auburn and a blowout loss at Arkansas took the Rebels out of the SEC West race. Nevertheless, they would recover one week after the nightmare loss to the Razorbacks and beat Mississippi State 31-17 in the Egg Bowl.

-- Ole Miss handed the Bulldogs just their second loss of the season and eliminated them from contention for a berth to the College Football Playoff. The Rebels, who won outright as 2.5-point underdogs, got 296 passing yards and one rushing score out of senior quarterback Bo Wallace, in addition to a 91-yard touchdown run by Jaylen Walton.

-- Hugh Freeze's team won't have its two best WRs against TCU. Laquon Treadwell went down with a season-ending injury in a 35-31 loss to Auburn on Nov. 1. Treadwell had made 48 receptions for 632 yards and five TDs. Vince Sanders is also 'out' vs. TCU after injuring his knee in the win over Mississippi State. Sanders had 40 catches for 697 yards and six TDs during the regular season. In addition, starting offensive lineman Aaron Morris is 'out' due to a knee injury.

-- Wallace completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 3,108 yards with a 22/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also ran for five TDs. Walton rushed for a team-best 583 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

-- Ole Miss won outright in all three games as an underdog this year. The Rebels beat Alabama 23-17 at home, won 35-20 at Texas A&M and prevailed over the arch-rival Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl as previously noted.

-- TCU (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) appeared to be destined for a berth in the College Football Playoff before getting its spot taken by Ohio State after it trounced Wisconsin 59-0 at the Big Ten Championship Game. The Horned Frogs have won seven in a row while going 5-2 versus the number.

-- Gary Patterson's team has wins over bowl-bound foes like Minnesota (30-7), Oklahoma (37-33), Oklahoma State (42-9), West Virginia (31-30), Kansas State (41-20) and Texas (48-10). TCU's only loss came at Baylor by a 61-58 count, but we should note that the Horned Frogs held a 21-point advantage early in the fourth quarter.

-- As a single-digit 'chalk' this season, TCU compiled a 2-1 spread record.

-- TCU's offense is second in the nation in scoring, averaging 46.8 points per game. This unit is led by QB Trevone Boykin, who completed 60.5 percent of his passes for 3,714 yards with a 30/7 TD-INT ratio. Boykin also rushed for 642 yards and eight TDs.

-- Josh Doctson is Boykin's favorite target, hauling in 59 receptions for 959 yards and nine TDs. Aaron Green has run for a team-high 854 yards and eight TDs, averaging 7.7 yards per carry.

-- Ole Miss leads the country in scoring defense, allowing only 13.8 PPG.

-- The 'under' has cashed at lucrative 9-2 overall clip in Ole Miss games.

-- The 'over' is 8-4 overall for TCU.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Boise State vs. Arizona**

-- The Fiesta Bowl is ready to welcome Boise State back this year, with the Broncos set to collide with Arizona. As of Tuesday afternoon, most spots had Arizona (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 68. Gamblers can back the Broncos on the money line for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135).

-- Boise State (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) has won eight in a row with all of those victories coming by margins of nine points or more. The Broncos were underdogs just once this year, losing 35-13 to Ole Miss as a 9.5-point 'dog in the season opener in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome. They faced 10 bowl-bound opponents, winning eight of those contests. BSU's other loss besides Ole Miss came at Air Force (28-14) on Sept. 27.

-- Boise State is back at the Fiesta Bowl for the first time since beating TCU 17-10 in 2009 as a seven-point underdog. Of course, the Broncos played in arguably the greatest Fiesta Bowl ever. They beat Oklahoma in Adrian Peterson's final collegiate game thanks to a remarkable last-minute drive that was capped by a two-point conversion that saw Ian Johnson score on a masterfully-executed Statue-of-Liberty play.

-- BSU saw its four-game winning streak in bowl games snapped last year when it lost 38-23 to Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl.

-- Rich Rodriguez earned Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors after leading UA to the league title game and a 10-2 regular-season record. The Wildcats' only regular-season setbacks came at home to USC (28-26) and at UCLA (17-7). In both of those defeats, the kicking game let them down or those results could've gone differently.

-- R-Rod's squad had its best wins at Oregon (31-24), at Utah (42-10) and vs. Arizona State (42-35).

-- Arizona's offense was led by QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson. Solomon enjoyed a stellar freshman campaign, completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 3,458 yards with a 27/7 TD-INT ratio. Solomon also rushed for 259 yards and one score. Wilson rushed for 1,289 yards and 15 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. He also had 12 receptions for 90 yards and one TD.

-- Solomon's favorite target is Cayleb Jones, who hauled in 65 receptions for 902 yards and nine TDs. Samajie Grant, who missed the Pac-12 Championship Game due to a suspension, is back for the bowl game. Grant had 41 catches for 649 yards and five TDs.

-- Arizona struggled in five games as a single-digit 'chalk,' limping to a 1-4 spread record.

-- BSU is coming off a 28-14 win over Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game. The Broncos had the benefit of playing the Bulldogs at home on the smurf turf, but they failed to cover the number as 22.5-point favorites. QB Grant Hedrick rushed for 81 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Boise State is led by RB Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 1,705 yards and 25 TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. Ajayi also caught 45 balls for 536 yards and four TDs.

-- Hedrick connected on 70.9 percent of his throws for 3,387 yards with a 22/13 TD-INT ratio. Hedrick has run for 563 yards and eight TDs. When he drops back to pass, his favorite target is Shane Williams-Rhodes, who had 698 receptions for 585 yards and seven TDs.

-- Arizona is bowling for a third straight season under Rodriguez. The Wildcats have won both previous postseason contests, including last year's 42-19 blitzing of Boston College as seven-point 'chalk' at the AdvoCare V100 Bowl.

--The 'over' has hit in seven straight games for BSU to improve to 9-4 overall.

--The 'under' is 9-4 overall for the Wildcats, 5-1 in its last six games.

-- ESPN will provide television coverage at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State**

--Mississippi State and Georgia Tech are poised to square off on New Year's Eve at the Orange Bowl. Both of these schools enjoyed banner seasons, but both squads come into this contest in bounce-back mode. As of Tuesday afternoon, most books had Mississippi State (10-2 SU, ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 61. Gamblers can back the Yellow Jackets to win outright for a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210).

-- Dak Prescott was the catalyst for Dan Mullen's team as it won its first nine games, including three straight wins over then-Top-10 opponents when it won at LSU (34-29), vs. Texas A&Mm (48-31) and vs. Auburn (38-23). The 9-0 start was halted when the Bulldogs dropped a 25-20 decision at Alabama as 10-point road underdogs.

-- Mississippi State bounced back from the loss to 'Bama to smash Vandy by a 51-0 count as a 29.5-point home favorite. Prescott threw three TD passes without an interception and also ran for a score.

-- After beating Vandy, Mississippi State went to Oxford for the Egg Bowl and lost 31-17 as a 2.5-point road favorite. Prescott connected on 22-of-37 throws for 282 yard and one TD without an interception. He also ran for 48 yards and one TD.

-- For the season, Prescott completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 2,996 yards with a 24/10 TD-INT ratio. The Louisiana native also rushed for 939 yards and 13 scores.

-- MSU junior RB Josh Robinson had a breakout season, rushing for 1,128 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC. Robinson also had 28 catches for 370 yards and one TD. De'Runnya Wilson had a team-best 38 receptions for 575 yards and seven TDs.

-- Georgia Tech (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) has covered the spread in six straight games, but it had its five-game winning streak (SU) snapped in a 37-35 loss to FSU at the ACC Championship Game. However, the Yellow Jackets got the backdoor cover for their backers by scoring a TD with 1:47 remaining. They covered as 3.5-point 'dogs thanks to a 25-yard scoring strike from Justin Thomas to Darren Waller.

-- Georgia Tech has struggled mightily in bowl games during Paul Johnson's seven-year tenure. The Jackets are 1-5 both SU and ATS in six postseason appearances. The lone victory came over USC by a 21-7 count at the Sun Bowl two seasons ago.

-- Georgia Tech has been an underdog five times this year, compiling a 5-1 spread record with four outright wins at Virginia Tech, at Pitt and vs. Clemson, and vs. Georgia.

-- Georgia Tech is ranked third in the nation in rushing yards, averaging 333.6 yards per conteState Thomas, the sophomore signal caller, rushed for a team-high 965 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Zach Laskey ran for 788 yards and nine TDs.

-- Unlike in recent seasons, Georgia Tech has a legit aerial attack. Thomas has connected on only 50.9 percent of his throws for 1,594 yards, but he has an outstanding 17/5 TD-INT ratio. Unfortunately for the Jackets, they are without leading WR DeAndre Smelter, who suffered a season-ending injury in late November. Smelter had a team-best 35 catches for 715 yards and seven TDs.

-- The 'over' has hit at a 7-6 overall clip for Georgia Tech.

-- MSU has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games to improve to 7-5 overall.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OLE MISS vs. TCU (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl)...
Hugh Freeze broke recent 4-game spread losing streak in Egg Bowl. Prior, he had been 34-12 vs. number at Ark State & Ole Miss since 2011. Freeze 2-0 as dog Ty and 10-4 in role since 2010. Rebs have also covered last two bowls. TCU, however, 10-2 vs. line this season, though only two Ls came away from home. Frogs 0-5 vs. line last five bowls.
Ole Miss, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE vs. ARIZONA (Fiesta Bowl)...
Boise no covers last two bowls, but covered last 3 vs. non-MW this season. Rich-Rod just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 as chalk and 5-6 last 11 vs. number away from Tucson.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Orange Bowl)...
Paul Johnson 9-4 vs. line in 2014 including six straight covers to close the season. Also four straight covers as dog and 5-1 in role in 2014. But Johnson only 1-5 vs. line in bowls with GT, which is 1-6 vs. spread last seven bowls. MSU just 2-4 vs. line down stretch in 2014. Dan Mullen 3-1 SU, 2-2 vs. line in bowls with MSU.
GT, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin Bowl History

December 30, 2014

Jan. 1, 2014 Capital One Bowl - South Carolina 34, Wisconsin 24

Jan. 1, 2013 Rose Bowl - Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14

Jan. 2, 2012 Rose Bowl - Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38

Jan. 1, 2011 Rose Bowl - TCU 21, Wisconsin 19

Dec. 29, 2009 Champs Sports Bowl - Wisconsin 20, Miami 14

Dec. 27, 2008 Champs Sports Bowl - Florida St. 42, Wisconsin 13

Jan. 1, 2008 Outback Bowl - Tennessee 21, Wisconsin 17

Jan. 1, 2007 Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 17, Arkansas 14

Jan. 2, 2006 Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin 24, Auburn 10

Jan. 1, 2005 Outback Bowl - Georgia 24, Wisconsin 21

Dec. 31, 2003 Music City Bowl - Auburn 28, Wisconsin 14

Dec. 29, 2002 Alamo Bowl - Wisconsin 31, Colorado 28

Dec. 29, 2000 Sun Bowl - Wisconsin 21, UCLA 20

Jan. 1, 2000 Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 17, Stanford 9

Jan. 1, 1999 Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 38, UCLA 31

Jan. 1, 1998 Outback Bowl - Georgia 33, Wisconsin 6

Dec. 27, 1996 Copper Bowl - Wisconsin 38, Utah 10

Jan. 2, 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl - Wisconsin 34, Duke 20

Jan. 1, 1994 Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 21, UCLA 16

Dec. 29, 1984 Hall of Fame Bowl - Kentucky 20, Wisconsin 19

Dec. 11, 1982 Independence Bowl - Wisconsin 14, Kansas St. 3

Dec. 13, 1981 Garden State Bowl - Tennessee 28, Wisconsin 21

Jan. 2, 1963 Rose Bowl - Southern Cal 42, Wisconsin 37

Jan. 1, 1960 Rose Bowl - Washington 44, Wisconsin 8

Jan. 1, 1953 Rose Bowl - Southern Cal 7, Wisconsin 0

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Orange Bowl, Miami 12/31
Georgia Tech lost four of last five bowls, scoring 17.2 ppg; extra time to prep helps against one-dimensional option attack. Tech lost this game to Iowa 24-14 (-6) five years ago. Johnson is 3-7 in bowl games. Miss State was #1 in country as late as mid-November; they lost two of last three games overall after 9-0 start. State won four of last five bowls (Mullen won three of four bowls); they're 3-1 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 7-2 in such games. Jackets covered last six games, scored 30+ in six of last seven games. Think grass field helps Miss State, slower track, less precise. Underdogs are 3-2 in last five Orange Bowls.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ 12/31
Arizona is 6-1 this season in games decided by 7 or less points, they're 4-4 in games with single digit spread. RichRod is 4-4 in bowls, but 2-0 with Arizona, winning 49-48/42-19 last two years. Boise State scored an average of 47.8 ppg in winning last eight games after loss at Air Force in October had them at 3-2; they're 4-0 in games with a single digit spread, also won four of last five bowls, losing to Oregon St. LY. Boise State beat TCU 17-10 (+7) in this game five years ago, also had their famous upset of Oklahoma here eight years ago. Dogs are 3-2 vs spread in Fiesta Bowl last five years, with three of last four going over total.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta 12/31
TCU thinks they got hosed out of 4-team playoff; they're right, but as far as this game goes, will Horned Frogs come to play? Its only question in this game that matters. SEC opponent figures to motivate them, no? Ole Miss won/covered its last five bowl games, allowing 10.3 ppg in last three; TCU is 3-2 in last five bowls (0-5 vs spread), scoring only 19 ppg, with all five decided by 7 or less points. Ole Miss lost three of last five games after a 7-0 start; this is consolation prize. Underdogs covered three of last four Peach Bowls; SEC teams lost three of last four visits here; they're 4-1 in bowls so far this month, 22-8 in last 30 overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Chick-Fil-A Bowl Betting Preview: Ole Miss vs. TCU
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Mississippi Rebels vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-3.5, 56.5)

Game to be played at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

1. The biggest challenge facing TCU when it competes in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl may not be the talented Ole Miss team across the line, but overcoming the disappointment of being left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs were third in the penultimate CFP rankings, but plummeted out of the top four when Ohio State's 59-0 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game trumped TCU's 55-3 thrashing of Iowa State in its regular-season finale. "We need to move on,” Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson told reporters. “The players want to finish this season like they started. They’re excited about coming to Atlanta.”

2. The Rebels were part of the CFP equation and were No. 3 in the USA Today Coaches Poll after starting 7-0, but back-to-back losses to LSU (10-7) and Auburn (35-31) ended their championship dreams, so they could be in a better place than the Horned Frogs mentally. "To be one of the first teams chosen in the New Year's six bowls and to come to a place that is extremely dear to us in Atlanta and particularly the Peach Bowl … we're honored," Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze told reporters. The Rebels' season ends in the same venue it began as they opened 2014 with a 35-13 victory over Boise State at the Georgia Dome on Aug. 28.

3. The Peach Bowl features the No. 1 scoring defense in Ole Miss (13.8 points per game) against TCU's No. 2 scoring offense (46.8). The Horned Frogs are led by junior dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin, a second-team All-America selection, who finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, while senior defensive back Senquez Golson (second in the nation with nine interceptions) stars for the Rebels. “I don’t think it can get any better than it is right now,” Boykin told reporters about TCU's attack.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at TCU -3.5, the line has since bounced between -3 and -3.5. The total opened at 56.5 and has dropped to 56 at some books.

INJURY REPORT: Ole Miss - OL Aaron Morris (Out-Knee) TCU - WR Kolby Listenbee (Ques-Concussion), RB B.J. Catalon (Qut-Upper Body), DL Mike Tuana (Out-Shoulder)

ABOUT OLE MISS (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Senior quarterback Bo Wallace tossed for 3,085 yards and 22 touchdowns while leading an offense that averages 30.4 points, but threw 11 interceptions and was sacked 26 times. While Golson patrols the secondary, freshman defensive end Marquis Haynes boasts a team-best 7.5 sacks while junior defensive back Mike Hilton leads the Rebels in tackles (66) and solo tackles (44). The Rebels play in a bowl game for the third straight season and have won six straight, including 25-17 over Georgia Tech in last year's Music City Bowl and 38-17 over Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl to end the 2012 season.

ABOUT TCU (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Boykin passed for 3,714 yards and 30 touchdowns while rushing for 642 yards and eight scores, and will likely be the preseason Heisman favorite in 2015. Juniors Aaron Green (team-best 854 yards, eight TDs) and B.J. Catalon (team-high 10 touchdowns) help power the running game while juniors Josh Doctson (16.3 yards per 59 catches and nine TDs) and Deante' Gray (16.6 yards per 34 receptions, eight TDs) are Boykin's favorite targets. The Horned Frogs return to the postseason after not playing in a bowl game last season for only the second time in 16 years.

TRENDS:

*Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
*Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Under is 12-2 in Rebels last 14 games overall.
*Over is 4-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 games on fieldturf.

CONSENSUS: 70.18 percent of users are backing TCU -3.5, with 68.3 percent on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Boise State vs. Arizona
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Boise State Broncos vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3, 67.5)

Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Rich Rodriguez has gone from an ostracized failure at Michigan to a beloved figure at Arizona as he guides the No. 11 Wildcats against No. 21 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Dec. 31. Rodriguez was fired as Wolverines coach after the 2010 season and Michigan is again looking for a coach while Rodriguez was named Pac-12 Coach of the Year after winning 10 games in his third season. The Broncos are coached by Bryan Harsin, who had an 11-2 record in his first season as coach after replacing Chris Petersen.

Boise State landed the Fiesta Bowl bid as the highest-ranked team from the five minor FBS conferences. The College Football Playoff guaranteed a spot to the best team from the non-major leagues and the Broncos captured the berth with eight consecutive victories, the final one coming against Fresno State in the Mountain West title game. Boise State is no stranger to the Fiesta Bowl, notching the famous 43-42 overtime upset of Oklahoma following the 2006 regular season and also defeated TCU 17-10 after the 2009 season.

Arizona middle linebacker Scooby Wright owns more hardware than anyone else in this contest after winning the Bednarik and Nagurski awards as the nation’s top defensive player and the Lombardi Award (top defensive lineman or linebacker) as well as being named a first-team All-American. The sophomore amassed 153 tackles and has 14 sacks among his eye-popping 28 tackles for losses. “He has a chip on his shoulder, he loves the game and is a good teammate,” Rodriguez said of Wright in a statement. “One of the reasons his numbers are so high is because of his effort.”

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Arizona opened as 4-point favorites and have been bet down to -3. The total has moved down two points from its opening number of 69.5 to sit at 67.5.

INJURY REPORT: Boise State - TE Connor Peters (questionable Wednesday, leg). Arizona - LB DeAndre Miller (questionable Wednesday, shoulder), RB Adonis Smith (questionable Wednesday, concussion), DL Parker Zellers (questionable Wednesday, ankle), S Trevor Ermisch (questionable Wednesday, arm), OL Steven Gurola (questionable Wednesday, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (11-2, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 O/U): The Broncos have a big-time running back in Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 1,689 yards and 25 touchdowns – topping 100 yards nine times – and also has four receiving TDs. Quarterback Grant Hedrick has an impressive 70.9 completion percentage to go with 3,387 yards and 22 touchdowns but also is mistake-prone with 13 interceptions. Strong safety Darian Thompson (seven) and cornerback Donte Deayon (five) have combined for 12 of Boise State’s 20 interceptions with middle linebacker Tanner Vallejo (team-best 86 tackles) and outside linebacker Kamalei Correa (team-leading 10 sacks) also enjoying strong campaigns.

ABOUT ARIZONA (10-3, 5-8 ATS, 4-9 O/U): Quarterback Anu Solomon proved to be ready for duty as a freshman and he has excelled with 3,458 yards and 27 touchdowns against only seven interceptions. Nick Wilson was the main ground force with 1,289 yards and 15 touchdowns and Cayleb Jones is the top receiving target and caught 65 passes for 902 yards and nine touchdowns. Wright gets help on defense from safety Jared Tevis (119 tackles, four sacks), free safety Jourdon Grandon (team-high three interceptions) and safety William Parks (13 tackles for losses).

TRENDS:

* Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus the Pac-12.
* Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Over is 7-1 in Boise State's last eight games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Arizona's last six games overall.

CONSENSUS: The majority of bettors are backing the Broncos at -3, with 68 percent of the wagers placed on Boise State.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 31

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Orange Bowl betting preview: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7, 61.5)

Game to be played at Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

1. In a season full of firsts, No. 8 Mississippi State would like nothing more than to add another by defeating No. 9 Georgia Tech for the first time in five meetings at the Capital One Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs lost two of their last three games to put a bit of a damper on their most successful season in school history, which included two other firsts – a 9-0 start and No. 1 ranking in the polls. The Yellow Jackets nearly knocked off three straight ranked opponents to end the regular season, losing only to No. 2 Florida State in the ACC championship game.

2. Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott became only the second Bulldog to earn Heisman Trophy votes – finishing eighth – and broke 10 individual school records in 2014, including total offense (3,935 yards), touchdowns responsible for (37) and rushing yards by a quarterback (939). The Louisiana native joined 2012 Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel as the only players in FBS over the last seven years to average at least 240 passing yards and 75 rushing yards in a season. Prescott was also the only player in the nation to rank in the top 20 in passing (24) and rushing touchdowns (13).

3. Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has typically employed at least one size-speed mismatch at receiver since his arrival in 2008 (such as Demaryius Thomas and Stephen Hill) to balance out his team’s high-powered option offense. Leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (6-3, 225 pounds) was the latest in that line of pass-catchers before he tore his ACL against Georgia on Nov. 29. With Smelter sidelined, it will be up to 6-5, 232-pound senior Darren Waller to produce like he did in the ACC championship (five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown).

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as GT +7. The line briefly dropped to +6.5 before reverting back to GT +7. The total has jumped a full point from 60.5 at opening to 61.5.

INJURY REPORT: MSST - DB Cedric Jiles (Ques-Hamstring), DB Justin Cox (Ques-Suspension) GT - WR DeAndre Smelter (Out-Knee), RB Tony Zenon (Out-Knee), LB Jabari Hunt-Days (Ques-Eligibility)

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Prescott was far from a one-man show on offense, getting a lot of help from leading receiver De'Runnya Wilson, who averaged 88.6 yards and scored four times through the air in the Bulldogs’ five games against ranked opponents. Although Mississippi State is ranked 80th in total defense, it has stepped up when it has mattered the most, finishing the regular season first in FBS in red-zone, 10th in scoring and 13th in third-down defense. One of the key members of the unit is second-team All-American linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who tallied 61 tackles and three sacks.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (10-3 SU, 9-47 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Yellow Jackets’ third-ranked rushing attack piled up 41 touchdowns, helping Georgia Tech break its school record for touchdowns in a season with 65. Sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas blossomed in his first year as a starter, tying Joe Hamilton for the fifth-most touchdown passes in a season in school history (17) and needs 35 rushing yards to become the second Georgia Tech quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Like Thomas, running backs Zach Laskey (788) and Synjyn Days (753) have amassed more than 700 yards on the ground, headlining a group of 12 Yellow Jackets that have totaled more than 100.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 neutral site games.
*Over is 6-1 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

CONSENSUS: 51.23 percent of users are behind Mississippi State -7, with 50.2 percent on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Early Bowl Tips

December 30, 2014


**Auburn vs. Wisconsin**

-- The Southeastern Conference and Big Ten Conference get together at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. for the latest installment of the Outback Bowl. The Badgers hope this game goes better than their past four appearances in the Outback Bowl, previously known as the Hall of Fame Bowl. They have lost three straight appearances in the game since topping Duke Jan. 2, 1995, in their first appearances in the bowl game. The Tigers won a thrilling 38-35 overtime win July 1, 2010 against Northwestern, and they're 2-1 all-time in the game.

-- Wisconsin (10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS) has to be champing at the bit to get back onto the field after a 59-0 beatdown from Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. It was the third consecutive game the Badgers failed to cover. To make matters worse, since that game, head coach Gary Andersen has left for the top job at Oregon State. Before the conference title game, the Badgers had won seven straight outings, and even with Andersen gone, they still have Heisman Trophy finalist RB Melvin Gordon in the mix. Athletic director, and former head coach, Barry Alvarez will lead the team on the field.

-- Auburn (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) had a difficult time this season, and they lost three of their final four games. Defense was a problem in the three losses, as they allowed 43.3 points per game in the three setbacks from Nov. 8-29. In fact, Auburn allowed 31 or more points in six of their final seven games. While the offense managed 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games this season, the Tigers were hard to figure out down the stretch. After a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS start, the Tigers were just 3-4 SU/1-6 ATS in the final seven outings.

-- Against bowl teams this season, the Tigers are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. They head into this game as a 6.5-point favorite. They're 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in such situations.

-- For the Badgers, they were 7-2 SU against bowl teams and 4-5 ATS. However, they fell in their only game against an SEC opponent this season, losing 28-24 in the season opener against LSU.

-- Gordon averaged 7.6 yards per game on the ground this season, running for an obscene 2,336 yards and 26 touchdowns. If the Tigers are to win, the top job will obviously be slowing down the electric tailback. Sidekick Corey Clement is no slouch, either, as he ran for 844 yards on 132 carries with nine touchdown runs. Each can be useful with their hands, too, as Godon had 8.9 yards per grab with three touchdown catches, and Clement had 12 grabs for 108 yards and a score. The quarterback play for Wisconsin is so-so, and the Tigers don't have to worry much about downfield play. WR Alex Erickson is the best bet for the Badgers, as he led the team with 51 grabs, 734 yards and 14.4 yards per reception. He had three TD scores, one behind Sam Arneson for the team-best in scoring receptions.

-- The Tigers offense is much more balanced than the Badgers. QB Nick Marshall passed for 2,315 yards, 18 touchdowns and a 148.7 passer rating, while running for 780 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. That total matched RB Cameron Artis-Payne, who also found the end zone 11 times. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 1,482 yards.

-- However, remember WR D'haquille 'Duke' Williams is suspended for Thursday's game, and he was a major part of the offense. He led the team with 45 catches, 730 receiving yards and five touchdowns. That will mean WR Sammie Coates will need to step up. He had 30 catches for 717 yards and four grabs. Quan Bray and Ricardo Louis will also need to fill the void.

-- The total sits at 63.5 for the Outback Bowl at most shops. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four games for Wisconsin, and is 5-2-1 in the past eight games. The over is 6-1 in Wisconsin's past seven neutral-site games, and 3-0-1 in their past four against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-2 in the past six games for Auburn, and 12-5 in the past 17 games on grass. However, the under is 7-2 in Auburn's past nine bowl games.

-- These teams last met Jan. 2, 2006 in the Capital One Bowl with the Badgers winning 24-10, covering as a 10-point underdog.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Michigan State vs. Baylor**

-- One of the best non-playoff bowl games will be the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, as the Big Ten and Big 12 get together at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Michigan State and Baylor square off, and they were two teams which entertained playoff helps for most of the season.

-- Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) rolls into this game with wins and covers in each of the past three. Their only two losses this season are against two teams in the four-game playoff, Oregon and Ohio State. Against bowl teams this season, Sparty is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS.

-- Baylor (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) comes into this game after being squeezed out of said four-team playoff. Head coach Art Briles was particularly outspoken, and was unhappy with his conference commissioner. The Bears can come into this game one of two ways. They can come out and get some semblance of revenge against Michigan State, showing the nation the playoff committee was wrong, or they can lay an egg. Against bowl teams this season, the Bears went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. That includes an impressive regular season finale win and cover against Kansas State, 38-27, back on Dec. 6.

-- The Spartans enter the game 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 against teams with a winning overall record, and 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts. In addition, Michigan State is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 games on field turf, and 18-8-1 ATS in their past 27 games following a straight-up win. However, they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven against Big 12 Conference opponents.

-- The Bears have gone 22-8-1 ATS in their past 31 games overall, and 12-4 ATS in their past 16 games against teams with a winning record. In addition, they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference battles, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven games at a neutral site.

-- The total is set at 69. The 'over' is a dominant trend on both sides. The 'over' is 11-3 in the past 14 overall for Michigan State, and 4-1 in their past five bowl games. The over has hit in five of the past six neutral-site games for Sparty, and the over is 4-0 in their past four games on field turf. Plus, the over has cashed in six of the past eight following an ATS cover for Michigan State. For Baylor, the over is a whopping 40-16-2 in the past 58 games, and 6-1 in their past seven non-conference games. The over has also cashed in six of the past seven non-conference games, and is 27-10-2 in their past 39 games on field turf.

-- When the Spartans have the ball, QB Connor Cook is a caretaker who makes very few mistakes. He has completed 58.2 percent of his passes, posting 2,900 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. WR Tony Lippett is the star with downfield ability, posting 60 receptions for 1,124 yards and 11 scores. RB Jeremy Langford finishes off the 'Big Three' for State, as he rolled up 1,360 rushing yards with 19 rushing touchdowns, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season.

-- Bears QB Bryce Petty completed 62.1 percent of his passes this season, totaling 3,305 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He has a cadre of receivers with speed to burn. WR Corey Coleman led the way with 57 grabs for 969 yards and 10 touchdowns, while K.D. Cannon checked in with 50 grabs, 833 yards and six scores. WR Antwan Goodley missed three games this season, but still ended up with 51 catches, 737 yards and six scores, while WR Jay Lee also showed how dangerous he can be with 39 grabs, 596 yards and six scores, averaging 15.3 yards per catch. The Spartans will have to keep tabs on RB Shock Linwood, too, as he ran for 1,226 yards and 16 scores while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Freshman Johnny Jefferson had three touchdowns in the final two games, and six scores all season. Devin Chafin also showed that the cupboard is anything but bare when Linwood leaves, as he had seven rushing touchdowns in a three-game span from Nov. 1-22.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Missouri vs. Minnesota**

In the second of three New Year's Day SEC vs. Big Ten battles, Missouri and Minnesota do battle in the sunshine of Orlando, Fla. at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl.

-- Missouri (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) won their final six games in the regular season, going 5-1 ATS during the span. They were roughed up by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game by a 42-13 score, but they fared well against bowl teams this season for the most part. Mizzou went 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in nine games against postseason qualifiers.

-- Minnesota (8-4 SU/ATS) was one of the bigger surprises in the nation this season, but they sputtered a bit down the stretch to fall out of contention for the Big Ten Championship Game. They still qualified for their first January bowl game in 53 years, and they're looking for their second nine-win season in 109 years. In fact, they have a losing record in five games since Oct. 25, going 2-3 SU. However, the Gophers were 4-1 ATS during the span, including covers in their final four regular season games. Against bowl teams, the Gophers went 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS in six games.

-- The Tigers dismissed their best receiver before the start of the season, but the offense didn't seem to skip a beat. QB Maty Mauk stepped right in for the departed James Franklin to post 2,551 yards, 23 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions while rolling up 355 rushing yards and a score. He isn't necessarily a dual-threat QB, but he isn't a statue back there either. RB Russell Hansbrough topped the charts for the Tigers with 970 yards, 5.1 yards per carry and nine rushing scores against mostly tough SEC competition. Marcus Murphy was a nice chance-of-pace back posting 767 yards and four touchdowns, including three in the final two regular season games. WR Bud Sasser was best of the lot in the receiving game, going for 70 grabs, a team-best 935 yards and 10 touchdowns. In fact, Sasser was just one of three SEC receivers to go for double-digit touchdown receptions, joining Alabama's Amari Cooper (14) and Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds (13).

-- The Gophers do not pass the ball much, and QB Mitch Leidner completed just 49 percent of his passes while totaling 1,540 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is more effective as a runner, posting 462 yards with 10 rushing scores. Only RB David Cobb had more, running for 1,545 yards and 13 touchdowns. TE Maxx Williams is the big-play threat in the passing game, as he was the only played on the roster with more than 15 receptions. He had 29 snares for 471 yards while accounting for seven of Minnesota's 11 receiving touchdowns.

-- Mizzou heads in 4-1 ATS over the past five games against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 games overall, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 non-conference battles. For Minnesota, the Gophers are 5-0 ATS in the past five against a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS in the past 13 non-conference tilts and 4-0 in their past four overall.

-- The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games overall for Missouri, but the over is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles. The over is 6-1-1 in the past eight games for Missouri on a grass surface. The under is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five non-conference games, and 11-5 in their past 16 games overall. The under is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts, and 4-0 in their past four battles on a grass surface.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

[StarDust Bum]

Rose Bowl Preview

December 31, 2014

Florida State (13-0 straight up, 3-10 against the spread) brings a 29-game winning streak to Thursday's Rose Bowl in Pasadena to face Oregon. The Seminoles find themselves as underdogs for the first time since playing at Clemson in 2011.

As of New Year's Eve day, most books had Oregon (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) listed as an eight-point favorite with a total of 71 or 71.5. Gamblers can back the 'Noles on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250). The line had been nine or 9.5 at most spots until moving down to 8.5 Monday night and then to eight on Tuesday.

Oregon has won eight in a row both SU and ATS since suffering its only loss of the season to Oregon back on Oct. 2. The Ducks won the Pac-12 Championship Game in dominant fashion, spanking Arizona by a 51-13 count as 14.5-point favorites.

Marcus Mariota led the way by throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The Heisman Trophy winner also rushed for 33 yards and three TDs, while Royce Freeman ran for 114 yards on 21 totes.

Mariota has enjoyed a sensational junior campaign, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,773 yards with an incredible 38/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 669 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Freeman has rushed for a team-best 1,299 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 5.6 YPC. Freeman also had a TD catch and TD throw, hitting Mariota for a 26-yard scoring strike. Mariota's favorite target is Byron Marshall, who hauled in 61 receptions for 814 yards and five TDs. Devon Allen has caught 41 balls for 674 yards and seven TDs.

In preparation for facing FSU, Oregon suffered a crushing injury at practice two weeks ago. Cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, a first-team All-American this season and three-time first-team All Pac-12 selection, went down with a knee injury and won't play against the 'Noles.

FSU has been burning the pockets of its backers all year long. The only spread covers for Jimbo Fisher's squad came in wins over Wake Forest (43-3), Louisville (42-31) and Miami (30-26). The Seminoles have failed to cover the number in three straight games, including a 37-35 win over Georgia Tech at the ACC Championship Game.

FSU allowed the Yellow Jackets to get a backdoor cover when they scored with 1:47 left to hook up their backers as 3.5-point underdogs. As usual, the 'Noles spent a good chunk of the game playing from behind, trailing Ga. Tech on three different occasions.

Nevertheless, FSU emerged victorious thanks to terrific performances from QB Jameis Winston and freshman RB Dalvin Cook, who ran for 177 yards and one TD on 31 carries. Winston threw for 309 yards and three TDs without an interception.

Winston hasn't been nearly as effective as he was in 2013 when he led his team to the national title and won the Heisman. He has been intercepted 17 times, including four picks against Florida in a 24-19 non-covering win in the regular-season finale. But he has played well at crunch time and that has been mandatory. FSU has had to come from behind in six of its last seven games and in the lone game it didn't trail, it had to break a tie with a last-second field goal to nip Boston College, 20-17.

Winston has connected on 65.4 percent of his passes for 3,559 yards and 24 TDs. He has run for three scores. Cook has emerged as the featured back in recent games. He has run for 905 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC.

Winston's favorite target is Rashad Greene, who won't have to go up against Ekpre-Olomu. Greene has made 93 catches for 1,306 yards and seven TDs. When Winston isn't looking for Greene, his likely target will be TE Nick O'Leary, who has 47 receptions for 614 yards and six TDs.

Oregon has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, easily taking the cash in wins at UCLA (42-30), vs. Stanford (45-16) and at Utah (51-27).

Fisher has taken FSU to four bowl games, winning them all with a 3-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Mark Helfrich's debut in the postseason went well last year, as the Ducks thumped Texas, 30-7 as 14.5-point 'chalk' at the Alamo Bowl.

Totals have been an overall wash for Oregon (6-6-1), but it has seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games.

The 'under' is on a 4-1 run for FSU to improve to 8-5 overall. This is the highest total the 'Noles have seen this season. The previous high was 65 in a 37-31 season-opening win over Oklahoma State that saw the 'over' hit thanks to a TD by the Cowboys with 1:55 remaining.

ESPN will have the telecast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Sugar Bowl Preview

December 31, 2014

The last time Nick Saban and Urban Meyer squared off, Alabama ran Florida out of Bryant-Denny Stadium by a 31-6 score. Meyer ignorantly had former UF quarterback John Brantley running the option and taking big hits when the game was already out of hand.

With Brantley at less than 100 percent, the loss to 'Bama began a three-game losing streak for UF. The Gators would get blown out at home vs. South Carolina and at FSU later in the year, resulting in Meyer's resignation (again).

The start of Meyer's demise at Florida actually kicked off at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta for the 2009 SEC Championship Game. Florida and Alabama were both undefeated, with the Gators gunning for a third national title in four years.

But Saban's Crimson Tide drilled UF, 32-13 and went on to win the first of three BCS Championships in a four-year stretch. Hours after that loss back in Gainesville, Meyer's wife was calling 9-1-1 for paramedics to rush him to the emergency room. Several weeks later, Meyer stunningly resigned for the first time, only to change his mind within 48 hours.

My point? You can make a decent case that Saban literally ran Meyer out of the SEC. When they face each other on New Year's Day, the stakes will be just as high as that 2009 showdown at the Georgia Dome. The winner will play for the national title.

This time around, the setting will be the Superdome in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl. And Meyer won't be in orange and blue. Instead, he leads Ohio State into the Crescent City to face Alabama.

As of New Year's Eve afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (12-1 straight up, 5-8 against the spread) installed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 58. Gamblers can take the Buckeyes on the money line for a +275 payout (risk $100 to win $275).

Ohio State (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) pushed its way into the College Football Playoff thanks to a dominant performance in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes took Wisconsin behind the woodshed in ruthless fashion, cruising to a 59-0 win as four-point underdogs.

Making his first career start one week after freshman sensation J.T. Barrett went down with a season-ending injury, third-string QB Cardale Jones completed 12-of-17 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Ezekiel Elliot rushed 20 times for 220 yards and two scores, while Devin Smith had four catches for 137 yards and three TDs.

Elliott has run for 1,402 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Jones has a 5/0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, in addition to rushing for 215 yards while averaging 6.3 YPC.

This is just the fifth time Ohio State has been an underdog on Meyer's watch. The Buckeyes went 3-1 both SU and ATS in the four previous situations as 'dogs. This is the richest 'dog spot for OSU since playing at Nebraska in 2011.

Alabama has compiled a 2-2 spread record in four games as a single-digit favorite this season. The Crimson Tide has won eight in a row since suffering its lone loss at Ole Miss on Oct. 4.

Saban's team was in danger at home in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 29. Auburn went ahead 33-21 early in the third quarter and still held a 36-27 advantage with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter.

With its playoff hopes on the line, 'Bama exploded for 28 unanswered points en route to a 55-44 triumph as a 9.5-point 'chalk.' Amari Cooper hauled in 13 receptions for 224 yards and three TDs, while T.J. Yeldon ran for 127 yards and a pair of scores. Blake Sims overcame three interceptions to throw for 312 yards and four TDs.

Alabama trounced Missouri at the SEC Championship Game, coasting to a 42-13 win as a 14.5-point favorite. Sims connected on 23-of-27 throws for 262 yards and two TDs without an interception. Cooper had 12 catches for 83 yards, while DeAndrew White brought down four receptions for 101 yards and one TD.

Derrick Henry rushed for a team-high 141 yards and two TDs on 20 carries against the Tigers. Yeldon also had a pair of rushing scores.

Sims has exceeded all expectations and then some during a banner senior campaign. He was the underdog to even be the starter, as FSU transfer Jacob Coker joined the team in May amid much hoopla. But Sims won the job and never gave it up. He has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio.

Cooper garnered first-team All-American honors after catching 115 balls for 1,656 yards and 14 TDs. Yeldon rushed for a team-best 932 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. Henry, a true sophomore, ran for 895 yards and 10 scores while averaging 5.6 YPC.

Alabama leads the nation in rushing defense and it is third in scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 points per game. The Tide scores at a 37.1 PPG clip.

Ohio State is fifth in the country in scoring, averaging 45.2 PPG. The Buckeyes are eighth in total offense and 11th in rushing, averaging 260.8 yards per game on the ground.

Saban has taken his team to 15 bowl games, going 8-7 both SU and ATS. The Tide got throttled at last year's Sugar Bowl when Oklahoma won a 45-31 decision as a 15-point underdog. With that said, the Superdome was also where 'Bama beat LSU 21-0 to win the national title three seasons ago. In 2008, Saban's Tide got shocked by Utah in a 31-17 defeat.

Meyer has thrived in bowl games, producing a 7-2 record both SU and ATS. However, Ohio State lost 40-35 to Clemson in last season's Orange Bowl.

The 'over' is 11-2 overall for Ohio State cashing at an 11-1 clip in its last 12 outings.

Totals have been an overall wash for 'Bama (6-6), but the 'over' has hit in back-to-back games. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WISCONSIN vs. AUBURN (Outback Bowl)...
After 13 straight covers dating to early 2013, Malzahn's Auburn dropped 8 of last 10 vs. number in 2014. Barry Alvarez 7-4-1 vs. line last 12 bowls. Wiscy 10-4-1 last 15 as dog. Alvarez split bowl decisions vs. Auburn in 2003 & '05 (his final game of first tenure).
Slight to Wisconsin, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. BAYLOR (Cotton Bowl)...
MSU has won and covered its last three bowls after losing previous three. Dantonio 0-1 as dog in 2014 but 11-3 last 14 in role. MSU 6-1 vs. line last 7 vs. non-Big 10. Bears only 3-6 vs. line last nine away from Waco. Baylor 2-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010.
Slight to MSU, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. MISSOURI (Capital One Bowl)...
Jerry Kill 8-4 vs. line this season, Minny 18-8 vs. spread last 26 on board. Also 11-3 last 14 as dog. Pinkel 6-2 vs. line in bowls, and 14-3 vs. spread last 17 away from home (though 1-2 last three on neutral fields). Tigers 3-3 as chalk this season.
Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE vs. OREGON (Rose Bowl)...
FSU only 3-11 vs. line last 14 on board but plus nine points would have covered 52 games in a row. Noles also 9-1 vs. spread last 10 bowls. Ducks 7-1 vs. line down stretch in 2014, 5-4 vs. number last nine bowls. Oregon 4-1-1 as road chalk TY but 1-2 vs. line last three New Year's or later bowls.
FSU, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. ALABAMA (Sugar Bowl)...
Nick Saban 5-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Bama. Tide covered last two away from Tuscaloosa this season after dropping previous six vs. spread in role. Also 6-2 SU and vs. line last 8 SEC title or bowl games. Urban Meyer 1-3 vs. line last four TY, was 6-1 SU and vs. line in bowls at Utah & Florida before his loss LY to Clemson. Meyer 4-0 as dog with Buckeyes.
Slight to Bama, based on team trends.