The Bum's 2014-15 Bowl Betting Results - Trends -Stats- Best Bets Bowl Season Thread

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Bowl Tips

December 24, 2014


**Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky**

-- Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference clash Wednesday for the second straight day in a tropical paradise. Tuesday, it was C-USA's Marshall dispatching MAC Champion Northern Illinois by a 52-23 count in the Boca Raton Bowl. Now, all attention turns to Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau for Wednesday's Popeye's Bahamas Bowl featuring Central Michigan and Western Kentucky. It is the first bowl game to be played outside of the United States or Canada since 1937, when the Bacardi Bowl was played in Havana, Cuba.

-- Central Michigan (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) enters their bowl game winners of three games in the past four, and five of the past seven after opening 2-3 SU. The Chippewas have been so-so against the number lately, going 2-2 ATS in the past four. In three games against bowl teams, the Chips went 1-2 SU/ATS. The Chips enter the game as a 3.5-point underdog, and the total sits at 68 as of Wednesday early morning.

-- Western Kentucky (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) has had a tale of two seasons. They opened just 2-4 SU/ATS, and failed to cover six times in their first nine outings. However, they have pieced together a four-game winning streak, and they have covered each of the past three outings. That includes their memorable 67-66 overtime thriller against previously unbeaten Marshall in WKU's regular season finale Nov. 28 in Huntington.

-- One thing the Hilltoppers could be relied upon this season was video-game-like performances. In addition to the 67-66 game with Marshall, they scored 34 or more points in 11 of their 12 games, and went for 45 or more points on six different occasions.

-- As much as their offense shined, the Western Kentucky defense was a problem spot. The 'Toppers gave up 24 or more points in 11 of their 12 games, and more than 42 points seven different times. Needless to say, the 'over' was a frequent play for bettors when it came to WKU. The 'over' was an impressive 8-3-1, including 4-1-1 away from Bowling Green. In their 12 games, the average total points checked in at a whopping 83.2 points per game combined between WKU and their opponents.

-- The 'over' also cashed in the final two regular season games for the Chippewas, but was just 2-4 in their six games away from Mount Pleasant.

-- When Central Michigan has the ball, WR Titus Davis will be the player Western Kentucky needs to worry about most. He rolled up a team-best 843 yards on 56 receptions, and he hauled in nine touchdowns. He is the only player in FBS history to post eight or more touchdowns in four collegiate seasons. RB Thomas Rawls averaged 5.3 yards per carry, running for 1,103 yards and finding the end zone 10 times. However, he missed time down the stretch, and it was freshman RB Devon Spalding scalding opposing defenses for 301 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a two-game stretch from Nov. 1-15. He is an explosive up-and-comer to watch when Rawls is getting a breather. And while his name sounds like a runner, QB Cooper Rush completed 63.8 percent of his passes, tossing 20 touchdowns while amassing 2,664 yards and a 142.7 passer rating in 2014.

-- For WKU, QB Brandon Doughty hoisted the ball up a mind-boggling 510 times, completing 344 passes for 4,344 yards, 44 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Florida-born WRs Jared Dangerfield and Willie McNeal combined for 17 touchdown receptions, and leading receiver Taywan Taylor was good for 739 yards with seven scores. Dangerfield should totally get respect, as he posted five touchdowns in his first three games, including eight grabs for 117 yards and two scores in their monumental win against Marshall Nov. 28.

-- The defense of Central Michigan was outstanding, but this will be their toughest assignment, by far, of the 2014 season. CMU ranked 16th in total defense in FBS, and they did not give up more than 129 rushing yards in any game while giving up 233 yards or fewer passing in their final seven outings.

-- For what it's worth, CMU is 4-0-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Wednesdays. They're also 3-1-1 ATS in their past five bowl games. However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS in their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 1-5 ATS in their past six games played on a grass surface. The 'over' is 4-0 in their past four games on grass, but the under is 5-2 in their past seven neutral-site contests. The 'under' is 13-6 in their past 19 games overall.

-- Western Kentucky is 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games on a grass surface, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five games against a club with a winning overall record. The over is 4-1 in Western Kentucky's past five non-conference battles, and 9-3-1 in their past 13 games overall. The over is also 3-1-1 in their past five against a team with an overall winning mark.

-- These teams last met Dec. 26, 2012 in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, with CMU coming out on top 24-21.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Fresno State vs. Rice**

-- The Christmas Eve evening game features the Mountain West's Fresno State Bulldogs meeting the Rice Owls in the Hawai'i Bowl. This game features the only team to get invited to a bowl with a sub-.500 record.

-- Fresno State (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) has been very shaky this season, but they did enough to earn bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs were roughed up in their first three games, going 0-3 SU/ATS in a stretch at Southern California, at Utah and home against Nebraska. However, they rattled off wins and covers in their next three games from Sept. 20-Oct. 3 before another three-game losing streak from Oct. 10-Nov. 1. At 3-6, it appeared any postseason aspirations would be dashed. They then knocked off San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii in a three-game stretch to move to 6-6 to qualify for the Mountain West Championship Game. They entered as a 22.5-point underdog, covering in a 28-14 loss at Boise State, their second loss of the season against the Broncos.

-- In seven games against six bowl teams, the Bulldogs were 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS. They enter this game as a 2.5-point underdog against Rice.

-- Rice (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) struggled to start the season, and they struggled down the stretch, while looking near unbeatable in the middle. The Owls were 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in the first three games before a six-game winning streak from Sept. 27-Nov. 8, when Rice was also 6-0 ATS. However, they got a dose of reality in a 41-14 stomping at the hands of Marshall in Huntington Nov. 15. They were also topped 76-31 in their regular season finale at Louisiana Tech, so they have been champing at the bit for the past four weeks to get redemption.

-- The Bulldogs are back in Hawaii after a two-year absence. They were treated rudely by Southern Methodist in the 2012 version of this game, falling 43-10. In fact, Fresno State has come away empty-handed in five consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2007 Humitarian Bowl.

-- The Owls are making their third consecutive postseason appearance, and they're looking to make a better showing than last year's 44-7 blowout loss against Mississippi State. It is the first time in school history that Rice is in a bowl game for a third straight year.

-- Rice went 7-0 this season when holding the opposition under 23 points, and they're 0-5 when the opponent scores 24 or more.

-- Rice has a rather balanced attack, led by QB Driphus Jackson. He threw for 2,524 yards with 21 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, while also amassing 360 yards and a score. He did a great job filling the shoes of the departed Taylor McHargue, who was a huge piece of Rice's success over the past two seasons. Sophomore RB Jowan Davis rolled up a team-best 910 yards with six rushing scores, and he hit the century mark on three separate occasions. WR Mario Hull posted seven touchdown grabs, with two in the finale at Louisiana Tech. He had four trips to the end zone in his final three games, coming on strong down the stretch. Senior WR Jordan Taylor led the way with 781 yards with six scores, including 136 yards and a score at La. Tech. He is a dangerous player who posted 15.9 yards per snare on 49 catches.

-- When Fresno has the ball, it's all about RB Marteze Waller. He posted an impressive 1,292 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry) with 11 forays into the end zone. RB Josh Quezada was also a nice change-of-pace back, posting two 100-yard games in the final four outings and he scored twice in the final two games, including a score against Boise State in the MWC title game. WR Josh Harper led the team with 1,072 yards and seven scores, and he has 20 touchdowns over the past two years. He has 65 or more receiving yards in each of the past four games, including three scores.

-- Fresno State has covered seven of their past 10 games, although they are 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five games against Conference USA teams, and they're 0-5 ATS in their past five bowl games. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles.

-- Rice is 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles. In addition, they are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games against a team with a losing record. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four against a Mountain West opponent.

-- The 'over' is 5-0-1 in Fresno State's past six non-conference tilts, and 4-1-1 in their past six bowl games. The over is also 4-1-1 in their past six neutral-site contests. For Rice, the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six neutral-site battles, and the 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a losing record. In the past four meetings between these teams the over has cashed in each of the four games.

-- These teams last met Nov. 6, 2004 with Fresno State thumping Rice 52-21.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 1
December 23, 2014
Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 1

Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30

Illinois (+6, 61.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 1:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX

After starting 1-5 in B1G play, the Illini won their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible, both upsets (win over Penn State as a five-point underdog and win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point underdog). They’re tabbed as a six-point underdog here in their first bowl appearance since 2011. Illinois faces a tough decision at quarterback for this game. Wes Lunt led the team with 14 TD passes and just 3 INT, but he was injured midway through the season and when he returned, he wasn’t as effective as he was pre-injury. Reilly O’Toole, more of a dual-threat, led the team to wins against Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern. Coaches haven’t indicated which player will start this game, but it’s a safe assumption that both will see the field. It’s a big task for whoever starts under center, because Illinois didn’t get a great contribution from the running attack all season long and they’ll be going against a defense that ranked 16th nationally against the run (117.9 rush YPG allowed by LA Tech). Leading rusher Josh Ferguson only had one game where he exceeded 95 rushing yards as the team ranked 114th in rush YPG nationally.

Defensively the Illini weren’t great this season. Nine of 12 opponents scored 30+ points and they finished the season ranked 108th in scoring defense and 115th in yards per game allowed. Statistically LA Tech isn’t an offensive juggernaut (65th in yards per game), but the Bulldogs did average 45 PPG over the last five games – including a 76-point outburst in a win over Rice on November 29th. The offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who tossed for 3,189 yards, 29 TD, and 13 INT in 2014. They also got a great contribution from RB Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,236 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 TD. Louisiana Tech has been one of the best teams to wager on this season, finishing with a 10-3 record against the spread. Their 76-31 win over Rice placed them in the Conference USA Championship game, where they nearly pulled off the upset win (L 23-26 to Marshall).

Louisiana Tech suspended six players before the Marshall game, including five starters, and it's unlikely they'll play in this bowl. Over the last four years, LA Tech is 3-6 SU and 8-1 ATS in games against Power Five conference teams, including a 52-24 win over Illinois in 2012. They covered games against Oklahoma and Auburn this season as a heavy underdog. LA Tech has covered both of its bowl appearances since 2008 while Illinois is 2-1 SU & ATS in three bowl appearances since 2007.

Rutgers (+3, 66) vs. North Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
Friday, Dec. 26 – 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ford Field, Detroit, MI

The destination isn’t quite as desirable as other bowl games, so motivation could play a factor for both sides here. Most media experts didn’t expect much from Rutgers before the season and a 7-5 finish and a trip to a bowl game is a bit of a success in itself, but the Scarlet Knights aren’t exactly “hot” coming into this game. They’ve dropped four of the last six, losing to Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State by a combined score of 44-180. They were able to close it out on a positive note, winning at Maryland 41-38. QB Gary Nova disappeared far too often in big games and was maddeningly inconsistent. In Rutgers’ five losses, Nova combined for 1 TD pass and 10 INT (19 TD and 2 INT in seven Rutgers victories). He doesn’t have much of a running attack to lean on, especially after starting RB Paul James went down with a knee injury in September. As a team, the Scarlet Knights rank 89th in rush YPG and the leading rusher, Desmon Peoples, has 447 yards (3.9 YPC) and 3 TD.

Luckily for the Scarlet Knights, North Carolina doesn’t boast a great defense. The Tar Heels rank 118th in yards per game allowed, 108th against the pass, 117th against the run, and 119th in scoring D. Eight of 12 opponents scored 35+ points, and three scored 50+ points. North Carolina looked like one of the nation’s worst team’s midway through the season as it struggled to a 2-4 record that included losses of 29 points to East Carolina, 25 points to Clemson, and 17 points to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels righted the ship in the 2nd half of the season, finishing 4-2 with quality wins over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Duke. It ended with a dud in a 28-point loss to NC State, but a 6-6 campaign is more than most expected after the porous start that this team got off to. QB Marquise Williams is the player to watch here. He led the team in passing (2,875 yards), rushing (732 yards), and total touchdowns (32). Williams could lead this UNC offense to a big day against this Rutgers defense that has allowed 37+ points in five of the last six games.

The Scarlet Knights have dropped back-to-back bowl games, losing to Virginia Tech in 2012 and Notre Dame in 2013. North Carolina won the Belk Bowl last year and this will be their fifth bowl appearance in the last five years (were ineligible in 2012 despite an 8-4 finish). These two opponents have met four times since 2006. North Carolina is 3-1 SU in those four meetings, but Rutgers covered as the 9.5-point underdog in the last meeting in 2011.

Penn State (+2.5, 40) vs. Boston College
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

If you like hard-hitting defenses, buckle your chin straps for this one. Two top-15 defenses meet in Yankee Stadium in a game where motivation is high for both sides. PSU is playing its first bowl game in three years after the NCAA lifted its postseason ban earlier this year. BC is searching for its first bowl win since 2007, aiming to end a four-game bowl losing skid. Penn State jumped out to a 4-0 start to 2014 that included quality wins over Central Florida and Rutgers. Things quickly went downhill as the Nittany Lions managed just two wins over the final eight games. QB Christian Hackenberg had just four touchdown passes and 10 INT’s over those eight games while completing less than 50% over that span. All of the blame can’t be on Hackenberg, however, as the PSU offensive line was one of the worst in the nation. PSU allowed a B1G-high 42 sacks while only averaging 103.6 rush YPG (120th nationally). Despite being so inept on offense, the defense was able to keep them in a number of games (four of their six losses were by seven points or fewer). The Nittany Lions rank 2nd in yards per game allowed, 10th against the pass, 1st against the rush, and 8th in scoring defense.

That defense will be put to the test against a Boston College offense that runs the ball very well. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in rush YPG, led by QB Tyler Murphy. Murphy set an ACC record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 1,079 and scored 10 rushing touchdowns. He wasn’t terribly effective through the air, finishing with 11 pass TD, 10 INT, and 56.9% completions. He also has solid contributors around him as RB’s Jon Hillman and Myles Willis combined for 1,152 rush yards and 14 TD.

These two used to meet every year, but since Penn State became a member of the B1G, they’ve met only twice (2003 & 2004). Boston College won both of those meetings. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in the last four bowl games, including a 19-42 loss to Arizona in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl last year. Penn State is 0-2 SU & ATS in their last two Bowl games (last win came in 2009 - 19-17 vs. LSU in the Capital One Bowl) and this will be their first bowl appearance since 2011.

Nebraska (+6.5, 62) vs. USC
National University Holiday Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 27 - 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

The Huskers, like Iowa, had a chance to win the B1G West with a couple of wins late in the season. Instead, they dropped back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Minnesota to fall out of the running. Nine wins wasn’t enough to save coach Bo Pelini, who was canned after the season. Interim coach Barney Cotton will serve as the head coach in the Holiday Bowl when Nebraska takes on USC. Nebraska will lean on its rushing attack behind stud RB Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah finished 2014 with 1,523 yards and 18 TD (also had 208 receiving yards and 3 receiving TD). Abdullah had a knee sprain that limited down the stretch (68.5 rush YPG over the final four weeks), but he expects to be fully healthy for this matchup on December 27th. If Abdullah can’t get going, then Nebraska will be in trouble because QB Armstrong hasn’t shown the ability to lead this offense through the air. Armstrong completed just 51.7% of his passes with 19 TD and 11 INT this year and disappeared in Nebraska’s biggest games – 38-of-80 passing for 186 pass YPG with 2 TD and 3 INT against ranked opponents this year.

USC hasn’t faced an offense as focused on running the football as Nebraska will be, mostly going against pass-first offenses in the Pac-12. However, of the five opponents that had the most rushing yards against USC this season, three of them came away with victories (UCLA, Utah, and Boston College). USC finished in fourth place in a crowded Pac-12 South where five teams finished 8-4 or better, and the Trojans were just a few plays away from a possible 11-1 finish (three losses by six points or fewer). USC has a terrific trio of offensive playmakers led by QB Cody Kessler, who finished with 36 TD passes and just 4 INT on 70.7% completions. Kessler’s favorite target, Nelson Agholor, caught 97 passes for 1,223 yards and 11 scores while RB Javorius Allen had a breakout campaign of 1,337 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 9 rush TD. The Trojans scored 30+ points in eight of 12 games and ranked 27th nationally in points per game.

USC appears to have the coaching advantage here as Steve Sarkisian will appear in his first bowl game as head coach of the Trojans. His last bowl win came here in the Holiday Bowl in 2010, when he coached Washington to a victory over Nebraska, 19-7. The Huskers are 1-3 SU & ATS in their last four bowl games, the lone victory coming last year in the Gator Bowl against Georgia. USC will be playing its third consecutive bowl game and first against a B1G opponent since the 2008 Rose Bowl (Penn State). They won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl against Fresno State, 45-20, making them 4-1 SU & ATS in the last four bowl appearances.

Maryland (+14, 48) vs. Stanford
Foster Farms Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 30 - 10:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Here we have another B1G team that didn’t exactly end the season with a bang. After starting 4-1 this year, the Terps limped to a 3-4 finish that included losses of 28 points (Ohio State), 45 points (Maryland), 22 points (Michigan State), and 3 points to “rival” Rutgers to end the season. Offensively this team lacked explosiveness all season long. QB CJ Brown finished with just 13 TD and 9 INT while completing 53.2% while also leading the team in rushing with a measly 569 yards (3.8 YPC) and 7 rush TD. Leading WR Stefon Diggs missed the final three games of the season with a lacerated kidney, but reports indicate that he will be ready for this game against Stanford.

Maryland will need all the help it can get on offense against this Cardinal defense that ranked 5th in yards allowed, 7th against the pass, 11th against the rush, and 2nd in scoring defense despite playing some of the most explosive Pac-12 offenses week-to-week. Only two opponents exceeded 20 points against Stanford this season (Oregon & Arizona State) as Stanford held the likes of USC, Notre Dame, Washington State, Cal, and UCLA to just 14.8 PPG. With that defensive prowess, it’s a bit of a surprise that Stanford finished 7-5. The main problem, obviously, was an inept offense. Much like Maryland, the Cardinal struggled to find explosive plays. QB Hogan finished with just 17 TD and 8 INT on the season while the leading rusher, RB Remound Wright, finished with just 552 yards (4.3 YPC) and 8 TD. They were able to find their stride a bit, notching 418 yards and 38 points against Cal and 436 yards and 31 points against UCLA over the final two weeks.

Looks like the oddsmakers expect Stanford’s offense to continue to roll here against a Terrapin defense that ranks 97th in YPG allowed and 83rd in PPG allowed; favoring the Cardinals by 14 points – making Maryland the largest underdog of the bowl season. Maryland has not fared well against other top defenses this season, scoring just 7 points against Wisconsin (4th in total defense) and 15 points against MSU (6th in total defense). Maryland is 4-2 ATS in their last six as a double-digit underdog.

This is just the third bowl appearance since 2008 for the Terps. They lost to Marshall as a 2-point underdog in the Military Bowl last year, 20-31. Stanford is 16-8 ATS in their last 24 as a double-digit underdog, including a 4-1 ATS mark this year. Motivation for the Cardinals is a discussion, considering Stanford has been to four straight BCS Bowls. They lost to Michigan State by four points in the Rose Bowl last year.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Bowl Report - Part 2

December 24, 2014


Big Ten Bowl Games scheduled between Jan. 1 and Jan. 2

Wisconsin (+6, 62) vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

It’s difficult to determine the motivation level for each side here in the Outback Bowl. Wisconsin is off of one of the worst losses in program history, and it came on one of the biggest stages – a 59-0 loss in the B1G Championship – and it lost head coach Gary Anderson after that game (former head coach and current AD Barry Alvarez will coach the team in the bowl game). Auburn, on the other hand, had hopes of making a trip to the playoffs after losing the National Championship last year. Instead, the Tigers suffered losses in three of its last four games of the season and didn’t even get a chance to defend its SEC Title. Regardless of motivation, we will see two of the best rush-offenses in the nation go head-to-head. Auburn, led by RB Artis-Payne and QB Marshall, ranked 12th nationally in rush YPG. Artis-Payne and Marshall combined for 2,267 rush yards and 22 rush TD. Marshall, while always a rushing threat, proved his worth as a passer this season as well, finishing with 2,315 pass yards (60.1%) with 18 TD and 7 INT. WR’s D’haquille Williams and Sammie Coates proved to be two of the better deep-play threats in the country, combining to catch 75 passes for 1,447 yards (19.3 YPC) and 9 TD.

Few teams had success slowing this Auburn offense this year, but Wisconsin’s 4th-ranked defense will have a shot on January 1st. The Badgers ranked 5th against the pass, 17th against the rush, and 14th in PPG allowed. Aside from the Ohio State Buckeyes in the B1G Championship, no offense could move the ball with consistency against Wisconsin. For Wisconsin, their offense revolves around RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon amassed an astonishing 2,336 rush yards and 29 total touchdowns this year. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, Gordon was too much for most defenses, even when those defenses gameplan was built around stopping the run. One thing that has hampered this offense is the inconsistent play of QB Joel Stave. Stave finished the regular season with 8 TD and 7 INT with just 53.6% completions, culminated by a terrible performance against Ohio State (17-of-43 passing for 187 yards, 0 TD, and 3 INT). Auburn has been vulnerable to the run this season. In their last six games against FBS opponents, the Tigers have allowed 197.5 rush YPG with 13 rush TD over that span (allowed 39 PPG to those six opponents). It’s a solid bet that Auburn will do its best to limit Gordon and this rushing attack to force Stave into some bad decisions.

Wisconsin has dropped four straight bowl games, including three straight Rose Bowls and last year’s Capital One Bowl to South Carolina (last win was in 2009 in the Champ Sports Bowl). Auburn is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl appearances. One of the losses was last year in the BCS Championship game to Florida State and the other was the 2006 Capital One Bowl to Wisconsin.

Michigan State (+3, 72) vs. Baylor
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

The 2014 Cotton Bowl is one of the top matchups of the non-playoff version as both Michigan State and Baylor have resume’s worthy of one of the nation’s top teams, but found themselves on the outside looking in on selection day. The Spartans took care of everyone on their schedule save for Oregon and Ohio State, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the rankings, respectively. The loss to Ohio State on November 8th knocked them out of contention for a B1G title, but the Spartans continued playing hard and won their final three games of the season by a combined score of 116-28. The offense is led by QB Connor Cook, who had a fantastic season with 2,900 pass yards, 22 TD, and 6 INT. All B1G WR Tony Lippett caught 60 passes for 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns while RB Jeremy Langford continued to be one of the most reliable ‘backs in the nation, finishing with 1,360 rush yards and 19 TD (nine consecutive games with 100+ rush yards). This offense, specifically QB Cook, should see success moving the football against a suspect Baylor defense. The Bears ranked 104th against the pass this season, surrendering 260 pass YPG with 22 pass TD allowed. Against Texas Tech on November 29th, Baylor allowed 609 pass yards and 6 pass TD in a narrow 48-46 victory.

Baylor was able to hide a lot of its defensive issues with a stout offense. The Bears ranked 1st nationally in yards per game, 5th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 1st in points per game. QB Bryce Petty should be at full strength for this matchup after tossing for 26 TD, 6 INT, and 3,305 yards (62.1% completions). He’s flanked by RB Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,226 yards and 16 scores this year as well as a host of capable pass-catchers. Three different receivers finished with 50+ receptions and four finished with 6+ TD receptions. Baylor’s offense is a tough matchup for any team, but Michigan State is as well-equipped as any team to slow them down. Sparty’s defense ranked 6th nationally in yards allowed this season, 6th against the rush and 27th against the pass. Eight of 12 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer as the Spartans also ranked 13th in points per game allowed.

The Spartans have won three straight bowl games, winning outright as the underdog in each of those three games – including the Rose Bowl last season. Baylor is 2-1 SU & ATS in its last three bowl games after its loss to UCF in the Fiesta Bowl last year. Art Briles’ offense has averaged 52.7 PPG in its last three bowl games, but the defense has surrendered 45 PPG in those games as well.

Minnesota (+5.5, 48) vs. Missouri
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 1:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, FL

Minnesota followed up last year’s successful 8-5 campaign with an 8-4 record here in 2014. Still it feels like a bit of a letdown considering the Gophers started 6-1 before limping to a 2-3 finished that included an upset loss to Illinois. A loss to rival Wisconsin in the season’s final game sent the Badgers to Indianapolis and the Gophers home, although after we saw what happened to Wisconsin against Ohio State, maybe it was good that the Gophers didn’t participate in that game. Minnesota will be playing a New Year’s Day bowl game for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl, so there will be no shortage of motivation for the Gophers here. Minnesota is led by a rushing attack led by bruising RB David Cobb, who broke the school record for rushing yards in a season with 1,548 and 13 rush TD, and QB Mitch Leidner, who tallied 462 rush yards and 10 TD. Minnesota will try to establish its rushing attack to try and neutralize Missouri’s strong pass-rush, which ranked 6th nationally with 40 sacks this season. Also because Leidner isn’t much of a threat in the passing game. He finished with 1,540 passing yards on 49% completions with 10 TD and 8 INT.

Missouri represented the SEC East in the conference championship game for the 2nd consecutive year after a 10-2 finish in the regular season, and for the 2nd consecutive year, they lost in blowout fashion – this time in a 13-42 loss to Alabama. Credit the Tigers for another 10-win campaign, but there aren’t many notable wins on the resume. Six of their seven conference wins were by 10 points or fewer and their “best” win was against a disappointing 7-5 Texas A&M team. That was the lone victory of the season against a team that finished better than .500. Maty Mauk pilots this offense, and he finished with a solid 23-TD, 11-INT campaign. Mauk gets a lot of help from a great receiving corps, led by WR Bud Sasser, who tallied 70 receptions for 935 yards and 10 TD. The backfield consists of Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy sharing carries, as they both combined for 1,737 rush yards and 13 rush TD. Minnesota’s ‘D’ has been susceptible to strong rushing attacks this year; the Gophers allowed 232 rush YPG (5.7 YPC) over the last three weeks against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Missouri will try to replicate that success here. Minnesota was 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and covered four straight to end the season as a ‘dog.

The Gophers have dropped six straight bowl games including back-to-back years against Texas Tech (2012) and Syracuse (2013) and are 2-4 ATS in those games. Missouri lost to fellow B1G member, Indiana, at home on September 20th. The Tigers have won two straight bowl games, including a 10-point win over No. 13 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl last year.

Ohio State (+9.5, 58.5) vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1 - 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

With its 59-0 dominating win over Wisconsin in the B1G Championship, the Buckeyes convinced the playoff committee that they were worthy of a spot in the final four. The offense has been absolutely unstoppable for much of the season as OSU has averaged 48.5 PPG in 11 games since scoring a season-low 21 points in the lone loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th. Many expected this offense to take a step back when QB J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the regular season finale against Michigan, but third-string QB Cardale Jones stepped in for the B1G Championship and didn’t miss a beat, tossing for 257 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT in his first career start against a good Wisconsin defense. It helps Jones’ cause that he’s surrounded by one of the most talented rosters in the nation. RB Elliott is a burner in the backfield as he averaged 6.5 YPC on 1,402 rushing yards with 12 TD and there’s a bevy of talented receivers to throw to. WR Devin Smith is the big-play target as he caught 30 balls for 799 yards and 11 TD for an average of 26.6 yards per reception.

With all that said, Ohio State will face its toughest test of the season against an Alabama defense that is riddled with future NFL-ers. Defensively Alabama ranks 11st in total yards allowed, 2nd against the run, and 4th in points per game allowed. Auburn was the only team that exceeded 23 points against this Tide defense and seven of 13 opponents were held to 14 points or fewer. Alabama’s offense has been just as good as its defense. QB Blake Sims had a breakout campaign in which he tossed for 3,236 yards (64.7%) with 25 TD and just 7 INT. The “Thunder & Lightning” RB combo of Henry & Yeldon combined for 1,827 rush yards and 20 TD. The biggest threat on this offense – and that’s saying something – is WR Amari Cooper, whose 115 catches, 1,656 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns earned him a trip to New York as a finalist for the Heisman trophy. OSU does a good job of getting after the quarterback (40 sacks to lead the B1G), thus limiting big-play potential and increasing turnover potential (21 INT’s led the B1G). OSU’s defense hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season, but a similar matchup would be its showdown with Michigan State. The Spartans gained 536 total yards, including 178 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 358 passing yards. Overall the Buckeyes rank 15th in yards per game allowed, 17th against the pass, and 23rd in points allowed.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban is one of four coaches in the nation to have beaten OSU coach Urban Meyer more than once. Saban went 2-1 SU & ATS against Meyer’s Florida Gators from 2008-2010. The last meeting, in 2010, was a convincing win for the Tide that sent Alabama to the BCS Championship. Alabama is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last five bowl games, but lost last year’s Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma as a 15-point favorite. Ohio State has dropped its last two bowl games, including last year’s Orange Bowl against Clemson as a 2-point favorite.

Iowa (+3.5, 51) vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer Bowl
Friday, Jan. 2 - 3:20 p.m ET (ESPN)
Everbank Field, Jacksonville, FL

Iowa lost back-to-back heartbreakers at home to close out the season. First, with the B1G West title still within reach, the Hawkeyes fell by two points to Wisconsin. Then they hosted Nebraska in the new end-of-season rivalry game and lost by three points in overtime despite holding a 17-point lead late in the 3rd quarter. Motivation, or lack thereof, will be a factor here as the Hawkeyes were a trendy underdog pick to win the division and a fourth place finish seems like a major letdown. We’re not even sure how “good” Iowa is this year. Their wins came against teams with a combined 29-43 record – none with a record above .500. Offensively this team is limited. Jake Rudock finished with a solid 16 pass TD and just 5 INT, which is a major accomplishment considering his lack of receiving weapons. Leading rusher Mark Weisman had 14 rush TD, but had only 802 yards on 3.9 yards per carry.

This offense won’t have many easy yards against a Tennessee defensive unit that improved greatly as the year progressed. The Vols finished 35th in YPG allowed, 29th against the pass, and 40th in PPG allowed. Tennessee isn’t nearly as bad as the 6-6 record indicates. They played a brutal schedule where only two of 11 FBS opponents didn’t qualify for a bowl. Their six losses came against teams with a combined 54-19 record and three of the losses – three-point loss to Georgia, one-point loss to Florida, and eight-point loss to Missouri – could’ve easily gone in Tennessee’s favor. The offense was inconsistent as the Vols had to replace five starters on the offensive line from last year and integrate QB Joshua Dobbs midway through the season after Justin Worley’s injury. Dobbs showed flashes of brilliance but also made too many mistakes. He finished with 8 TD passes and 5 INT and proved he’s a dual threat with 393 rush yards and 6 rush TD. Freshman RB Jalen Hurd led the team in rushing with 777 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TD, but the Vols have little rushing threat to speak of, and rushing yards won’t come easy against this Hawkeyes defense that ranks 19th in YPG allowed.

Iowa has now dropped back-to-back bowl games after losing last year’s Outback Bowl to LSU, 14-21, but the Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. This will be Tennessee’s first bowl appearance since 2010, so most players will be playing in their first ever postseason game.

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Bowl Breakdown - Part 2


Bahamas Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 12:00 p.m. ET
Bahamas Bowl Betting Line: Western Kentucky -3

The Hilltoppers were awesome to watch this year, as they flew up and down the field and really had the ability to stop no one on the other side of the ball. Brandon Doughty is one of the better statistical quarterbacks in th nation, and he could shine in this one. Central Michigan's 7-5 record is a complete farce outside of its win on the road against Northern Illinois.

Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. Rice
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl Betting Line: Rice -1.5

Fresno State has no defense whatsoever, and this could be a huge problem in this game against a Rice offense which really has the ability to light it up. The last time we saw the Owls, they had 76 points dropped on them by Louisiana Tech. Driphus Jackson will have to have the game of his life for Rice in this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Friday, Dec. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Line: Louisiana Tech -6

Illinois feels like a weird team in a bowl game this year. The Illini went 6-6, but they only just squeaked into a bowl game because of the weaknesses of the rest of the Big Ten. La Tech was just short of the MAC title, but this might be an even better game for it to try to prove itself against one of the power conference teams in the nation.

Quick Lane Bowl - Rutgers vs. North Carolina
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET
Quick Lane Bowl Betting Line: North Carolina -3

Expect to see a lot of offense in this one, as these two defenses both struggled quite a bit this year. Marquise Williams and Gary Nova don't look anything like one another, but they both hold the keys to their teams' success in this game at Ford Field.

St. Petersburg Bowl - NC State vs. UCF
Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00 p.m. ET
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Line: UCF -2

The Knights are taking a big step backwards from last year's game against Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is still a big game for them after getting a share of the AAC crown this year. NC State ended up being a rather average team in the ACC, and it doesn't really have any signature wins which suggest to us that it can win this game.

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Friday's Top Action

December 24, 2014


Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5)

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Cotton Bowl Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisiana Tech -6, Total: 58

After winning two straight games to reach six victories, Illinois tries to extend the win surge at the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Louisiana Tech on Friday.

The Illini really struggled in the first 10 games of the year, as they went 3-7 ATS and managed just four SU wins. They put things together at the right time though, with victories as the underdog against both Penn State and Northwestern, and winning by an average of 8.0 PPG. Part of their success was being able to secure the football, as they did not turn over the pigskin in any of the final three contests. They last made a bowl in back-to-back seasons (2010 and 2011) while winning each time (SU and ATS) by an average of 15.0 PPG.

The Bulldogs did well enough to earn a spot opposite Marshall in the C-USA championship game after being 7-1 SU in conference action, and finished a strong 10-3 ATS overall. They nearly earned an upset win against the Thundering Herd on Dec. 6 as 8.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss while forcing four turnovers, but could not get past the double-digit win program. Much of Louisiana Tech's solid play stemmed from its ability to create turnovers, as it racked up the most takeaways in FBS with 40.

The Bulldogs' last postseason appearance came in 2011 at the Poinsettia Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs against TCU when they wound up on the wrong side of a tight contest, losing 31-24. These teams did meet recently in 2012 and played an ugly 52-24 game with Louisiana Tech coming away the victor as the 3-point road underdog. There were nine total turnovers between the two clubs, as Illinois fumbled five times while adding an interception.

Some trends to keep an eye on for Friday include that the Fighting Illini are 7-5 ATS (58%) after a game where they committed one or less turnovers in the past three seasons, while being a poor 21-42 ATS (33%) after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers since 1992. There are no significant injuries to either school in this one that could affect the outcome of the game.

Illinois had a solid passing attack this season (243.2 YPG), but failed to do much of anything with its ground game (117.1 YPG, 15th-worst in FBS) and scored a mere 26.6 PPG. QB Reilly O’Toole (1,049 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) started for this team in each of the final two wins while averaging 152 YPG with 4 TD and 1 INT. He also made a big difference with his ability to run the ball as he had 147 rushing yards on 21 attempts (7.0 YPC) in the Nov. 29 win over Northwestern on the road.

HB Josh Ferguson (685 rush yards, 8 TD) has averaged 4.9 YPC on the year, and he is coming off a solid performance (95 rush yards, 2 TD) against Northwestern to cap off the 2014 regular season. He was a big part of the receiving game as well with 44 catches for 373 yards (8.5 avg) and 2 TD. The toughest matchup on this offensive unit is WR Mike Dudek (965 rec yards, 6 TD) who had three scores in the final three games and managed two games over 100 yards on the year.

LB Mason Monheim (108 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 TD) and DB Zane Petty (104 tackles) have done their best to solidify this defense, but it has just not worked, as the unit is surrendering 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in nation) and 464.3 YPG of offense (14th-worst in FBS).

Louisiana Tech’s offense looked solid for a majority of the season, finishing with 37.5 PPG (13th in FBS) behind 242.6 passing YPG and 151.1 rushing YPG. QB Cody Sokol (3,189 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has been great in his senior year with three games over 300 passing yards in the final six games while performing poorly in the C-USA championship game against Marshall. In that contest he was a mere 7-for-20 (35%) for only 72 yards and tossed an interception.

HB Kenneth Dixon (1,236 rush yards, 21 TD) averaged 133 YPG over the past three games while getting into the end zone 10 times in the final four contests. Dixon was able to get some big plays in the passing game as well this season, totaling 306 yards on 26 catches (11.8 avg) and five touchdowns.

WR Trent Taylor (814 rec yards, 9 TD) was the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense and scored seven of his nine touchdowns over the final five games. He also had two performances with 110+ receiving yards.

The defense for the Bulldogs did well this season in giving up 25.2 PPG to their opponents, as they were tremendous against the run (117.9 YPG, 15th in FBS). DBs Xavier Woods (62 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Adairius Barnes (44 tackles, 5 INT, 4 TFL) were able to create plenty of turnovers, and will once again be spotlighted as they look to make some big plays.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 67

North Carolina tries to finish its season with a winning record when it collides with Rutgers on Friday in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.

These two teams have built up nice momentum with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland in its regular-season finale, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don't have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo has given opponents fits all year with 10 TD grabs and a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, but he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games.

Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG and 496 total YPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG on 525 total YPG. While the Knights are 31-15 ATS in away non-conference games since 1992, the Tar Heels are 16-6 ATS in this same timeframe in non-home games off a conference home loss.

While Rutgers will be without DB Kiy Hester (personal) and top RB Desmon Peoples (undisclosed) is doubtful, North Carolina may not have questionable DB Ryan Mangum (undisclosed), but RB Elijah Hood (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Friday.

Rutgers scores only 25.6 PPG on 379 total YPG this season, but has been better in non-home games (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) with 26.2 PPG on 391.5 total YPG. Defensively is where the school really struggles though, allowing 30.9 PPG on 440 total YPG (6.5 yards per play). The Knights gain 148 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 231 passing YPG (8.2 YPA), but they allow 213 rushing YPG (5.6 YPC) and 228 passing YPG (7.7 YPA).

Senior QB Gary Nova (2,667 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 20 TD, 12 INT) is coming off a monster game at Maryland on Nov. 29 when he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That was quite a turnaround from the 3 TD and 5 INT that he amassed in his previous five games combined.

His main target is WR Leonte Carroo (53 rec, 1,043 yards, 10 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving efforts and three multi-touchdown performances this season. He caught six passes for 104 yards and two scores in the last game at Maryland. Sophomore WR Janarion Grant (25 rec, 312 yards, 0 TD) also had a big day against the Terrapins with eight receptions for 105 yards.

With top RB Desmon Peoples (447 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) unlikely to play, the bulk of the rushing workload will reside with freshman RB Robert Martin (334 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) who has rushed for 208 yards (5.2 YPC) and 4 TD in his past three games. The Knights need to be more careful with the football on Friday, as they have at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this season, including five giveaways in the past two contests. The defense has only three multi-takeaway efforts in the past 10 games.

North Carolina's offense has scored a hefty 34.3 PPG (33rd in nation), thanks in large part to an air attack gaining 279.3 YPG (24th in FBS) and much smaller part to the ground game with 146.2 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense has really hurt this program though, as it allows 38.9 PPG overall (119th in nation) on 496 total YPG (6.4 yards per play). The Heels have been hurt in both facets, as they surrender 232 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 263 passing YPG (8.5 YPA).

Junior QB Marquise Williams (2,870 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) is coming off his worst game of the season in the 35-7 defeat versus NC State (11-of-22, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but has thrown for more than 275 yards in five of his past nine games, while tossing multiple TD passes seven times during the 2014 season. Williams is also the team's leading rusher with 737 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TD on the ground.

The team will try to get RB T.J. Logan (472 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) back on track after he gained a mere 11 yards on six touches in the last game, which was a far cry from his 271 total yards and 2 TD in his previous two contests. UNC has a host of talented receivers with four players surpassing 400 yards through the air. Sophomore WRs Ryan Switzer (55 rec, 703 yards, 4 TD) and Mack Hollins (34 rec, 611 yards, 18.0 avg, 8 TD) are the top targets for Williams, but the duo combined for just 36 yards on six catches in the Nov. 29 loss. North Carolina has committed multiple turnovers in 6-of-12 games this year, but has also forced multiple turnovers five times during the 2014 season.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Central Florida Knights (9-3)

St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: UCF -2, Total: 49

Two schools looking to extend their win streaks meet in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl when NC State faces American Athletic Conference co-champion Central Florida.

Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. The school has also won two of its past three bowl games.

UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at South Florida and East Carolina thanks to a final-play Hail Mary. This school is riding a three-game bowl win streak, including a 52-42 upset of 17-point favorite Baylor in the Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl.

Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and also rushed for 498 yards, but it's not easy piling up yards versus a Knights team allowing a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won three road games this season, and both won big at South Florida, with NC State prevailing 49-17, and UCF winning 16-0.

The Wolfpack are 22-10 ATS in non-home games after a bye week since 1992, while the Knights are 10-0 ATS in the past two seasons after playing their previous game on the road.

The only significant injury for either team is Central Florida G Joey Grant, who is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury.

NC State has a very balanced offense with 206 rushing YPG (37th in nation) on 5.4 YPC and 196 passing YPG, leading to 29.8 PPG. The offense has also done well in its five road games (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) by chewing up the clock for 32:54 in time of possession and outgaining these hosts by 56 yards per game.

QB Jacoby Brissett (2,344 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 5 INT) has not only thrown the ball exceptionally well, but has chewed up 498 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and three scores for the season. This includes his 167 yards on just 14 carries (11.9 YPC) in the upset at North Carolina on Nov. 29.

The team's main ball carrier is junior Shadrach Thornton (811 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD) who closed out the regular season with back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards and one touchdown. When Brissett does drop back to pass, he'll first look for WR Bo Hines (42 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD), who is the only wideout on NC State with at least 350 receiving yards. Sophomore TE David Grinnage (25 rec, 331 yards, 5 TD) is the main red-zone threat with his 6-foot-5, 269-pound frame.

On defense, the Wolfpack allow a pedestrian 27.0 PPG (68th in nation), while giving up only 197 passing YPG and 176 rushing YPG. Although they were unable to stop Georgia Tech's triple option that hung 479 rushing yards on NC State on Nov. 8, since that date, the Wolfpack have held their two opponents to 88 rushing yards on 63 carries (1.4 YPC). They have also done a great job of forcing turnovers with eight takeaways in the past four games.

Central Florida's offense scores only 28.2 PPG (including 21.3 PPG away from home) and gains 362.8 total YPG. This is split into a breakdown of 132 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) and 231 passing YPG. It has been the defense that has carried this club, allowing only 17.9 PPG on 282.8 total YPG (4.3 yards per play).

Sophomore QB Justin Holman (2,661 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 TD, 13 INT) has stepped in admirably this year for the departed Blake Bortles, throwing at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. Holman has been helped greatly by the presence of RB William Stanback (659 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD), who after a two-game absence, made his triumphant return on Dec. 4 in East Carolina with 101 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) to help the Knights pull off the stunning victory as 6.5-point underdogs.

Central Florida also has another star in junior WR Breshad Perriman (906 rec yards, 9 TD), who is a beast to bring down with his 6-foot-3 frame and averages 22.1 yards per reception. Perriman was on the receiving end of Holman's 51-yard TD pass on the final play of the Dec. 4 win at ECU. That 32-30 win gave the Knights a share of the conference title with Memphis. Turnovers have been a problem for the Knights this year, as they have at least one giveaway in nine straight games, totaling 23 miscues in this stretch. But the UCF defense has been the equalizer with eight games of at least two takeaways.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet

December 24, 2014


**Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech**

-- Louisiana Tech (8-5 straight up, 10-3 against the spread) and Illinois will square off in the Heart of Dallas Bowl at Cotton Bowl Stadium. As of Christmas Eve, the Bulldogs were listed as a six-point favorites with a total of 57.5. Gamblers can take the Illini on the money line for a +190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

-- Illinois (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) became bowl eligible by winning back-to-back games to close the regular season. First, the Illini won a 16-14 decision over Penn St. as a five-point home underdog. Then in the regular-season finale, Tim Beckman's team won 47-33 at Northwestern as a 7.5-point road underdog. These wins garnered the program its first trip to the postseason under Beckman, who will now be retained after his status was very much in limbo going into the game against PSU.

-- Illinois senior quarterback Riley O'Toole was the catalyst against the Wildcats. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 147 yards and three touchdowns. O'Toole also rushed for 147 yards on 21 carries. Josh Ferguson rushed for 95 yards and a pair of TDs on 15 carries.

-- O'Toole will get his third straight start vs. La. Tech. For the season, he completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 1,049 yards with a 9/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. O'Toole also rushed for 261 yards and one score. Wes Lunt, a transfer from Oklahoma St., was the starter in September before going down with a leg injury. Lunt is healthy now and could see playing time, but Beckman is going to stay with O'Toole as the starter. Lunt connected on 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,729 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- Illinois freshman WR Mike Dudek had an extraordinary season, hauling in 69 receptions for 965 yards and six TDs. The second-team All Big 10 selection can become just the eighth player in school history to record 1,000 receiving yards.

-- Illinois RB Josh Ferguson rushed for a team-high 685 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

-- La. Tech was a perfect 7-0 ATS in games played against teams that are in the postseason.

-- La. Tech won Conference USA's West Division thanks to a 7-1 record in league play. However, the Bulldogs lost 26-23 at Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. They did hook up their supporters as eight-point road underdogs.

-- Skip Holtz suspended six La. Tech players due to academic issues prior to the loss at Marshall. Five of those six players were starters and they remain 'out' for the bowl game.

-- La. Tech is going bowling for the first time since 2011. It went 4-8 last year in Holtz's first year at the helm. In 2012, Sonny Dykes' last season with the program, the Bulldogs went 9-3 but declined an invite to the Independence Bowl and then were inexplicably left out of the postseason mix altogether.

-- La. Tech is led by RB Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,236 yards and 21 TDs. Dixon, who averages 5.2 YPC, also had five TD catches. His 26 TDs were the most in C-USA.

-- La. Tech QB Cody Sokol threw for 3,189 and had a 29/13 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. Sokol, a transfer from Iowa, has Trent Taylor as his favorite target. The sophomore WR has 62 catches for 814 yards and nine TDs.

-- These schools had one common opponent: Western Ky. La. Tech took the Hilltoppers behind the woodshed in a 59-10 thrashing as a 7.5-point home favorite. Illinois rallied past Western Ky. for a 42-34 win as a 3.5-point home favorite.

-- Illinois has been an underdog eight times, posting a 4-4 spread record with three outright victories.

-- La. Tech owns a 4-0 spread record when listed as a single-digit 'chalk.'

-- La. Tech's defense led the nation in takeaways with 40.

-- The 'over' is 8-4-1 overall for LT, but the 'under' is 3-2-1 in its last six games. The Bulldogs' games have averaged a combined score of 62.8 points per game.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for Illinois (6-6) with its games averaging 60.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Rutgers vs. North Carolina**

-- North Carolina and Rutgers are poised to collide at the Quick Lane Bowl on Friday afternoon at Ford Field in Detroit. ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

-- As of Christmas Eve, most books had UNC installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 67. The Scarlet Knights are available for a +140 payout if they win outright.

-- North Carolina (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) needs a win over Rutgers to avoid its first losing season since 2007. The Tar Heels, who are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, won four of its last six games to get bowl eligible. -- UNC won four of its 10 games against bowl-bound schools. The victories included scalps of San Diego St., Ga. Tech, Pitt and Duke. Larry Fedora's team went into Durham on a Thursday night (Nov. 20) and blasted the Blue Devils by a 45-20 count as a five-point underdog. The offense rolled up 591 yards of total offense thanks to the sensational play of QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 276 yards and two TDs without an interception. Williams also ran for 98 yards and a pair of scores on 21 carries. T.J. Logan rushed for a team-high 116 yards and one TD.

-- After crushing Duke, UNC hosted North Carolina St. in its regular-season finale. The Tar Heels got trounced 35-7 as 6.5-point favorites. Fedora's team had scored at least 17 points in its 11 previous games this year. The Wolfpack held UNC to a season-low 208 yards of total offense and knocked Williams out of the game with an injury in the third quarter.

-- Williams, who is completely healthy now, completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,875 yards with a 20/9 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for a team-high 732 yards and 12 TDs. WR Ryan Switzer caught a team-best 55 balls for 708 yards and four TDs.

-- Rutgers (7-5 SU, ATS) closed the regular season by capturing a 41-38 win at Maryland as a 7.5-point underdog. Kyle Flood's squad trailed 35-10 late in the second quarter, but the game turned when QB Gary Nova found Andre Patton for a one-yard TD pass with nine seconds left until halftime. RU received in the second half and promptly scored on a one-yard TD plunge from Robert Martin just 73 seconds into the third quarter. On the first play of the final stanza, Nova threw a 10-yard TD pass to Patton to pull even at 38-38. Midway through the fourth quarter, Kyle Federico buried a 25-yard field goal for the winning points, as the RU defense made the lead hold up.

-- Nova threw for 347 yards and four TDs without an interception in the win over the Terrapins. For the season, Nova has connected on 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,667 yards with a 20/12 TD-INT ratio.

-- Rutgers is making its fourth consecutive bowl appearance. The Scarlet Knights have come up short in their last two bowl games, losing 29-16 to Notre Dame at last year's Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. We should note, however, that RU took the cash as a 14-point underdog to the Irish. Two season ago at the Russell Athletic Bowl, RU dropped a 13-10 decision to Va. Tech as a two-point 'dog in overtime. In 2011, RU captured its most recent bowl triumph by besting Iowa St. 27-13 as a one-point puppy.

-- RU owns a 6-1-1 spread record in its last eight postseason appearances.

-- As a single-digit favorite this year, UNC posted a 2-2 spread record.

-- Rutgers has compiled a 5-3 spread record with three outright wins in eight games as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights lost five of seven games against bowl-bound foes.

-- The 'over' is 7-5 overall for RU, cashing in five of its last seven regular-season games. RU's game have averaged a combined score of 56.5 PPG.

-- The 'under' is 6-5 overall for UNC after cashing in four of its last five games. The Tar Heels have seen their games average a combined score of 73.2 PPG.

**North Carolina State vs. Central Florida**

-- The ACC and the AAC will face each other when UCF and North Carolina St. face each other at the St. Petersburg Bowl at the Trop. As of Christmas Eve, most books had Central Florida (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 2.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 49.

-- After limping to a 3-9 record in Dave Doeren's debut season in Raleigh, North Carolina St. (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) won its first four games and then had a 17-point lead over top-ranked Florida St. in the third quarter of their ACC showdown. However, the Seminoles rallied and eventually collected a 56-41 win. That first defeat started a four-game losing streak, but the Wolfpack won three games (at Syracuse, vs. Wake Forest and at North Carolina) in November to ensure a winning campaign.

-- North Carolina St. coasted to a 35-7 win at North Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog in the regular-season finale for both schools. QB Jacoby Brissett rushed for 167 yards and one TD, in addition to throwing three TD passes without an interception. Shadrach Thornton ran for 161 yards and one TD.

-- Brissett, a fourth-year junior who sat out the 2013 campaign after transferring from Florida, has been the catalyst for N.C. St. all year long. Brissett threw for 2,344 yards with a 22/5 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 498 yards and three TDs.

-- Thornton rushed for a team-high 811 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC.

-- N.C. St. went 4-2 with a pair of outright wins in six games as an underdog.

-- UCF lost its first two games to Penn St. (26-24) and Missouri (38-10), only to respond by winning nine of its last 10 games. George O'Leary's team brings a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS to the Sunshine State. The Knights closed the regular season with a 32-30 win at East Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog. On the final play of the game, Justin Holman found Breshad Perriman for a 51-yard TD pass on a Hail Mary play.

-- UFC had led ECU by a 26-9 score early in the fourth quarter, but the Pirates rallied and took a 30-26 lead with 2:17 left in the fourth quarter. But Holman's TD pass, his first of the night, helped the Knight avoid what would've been a painful defeat. Holman threw for 274 yards and wasn't intercepted by ECU. William Stanback rushed for 101 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- For the season, Holman completed 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,661 yards with a 20/13 TD-INT ratio. Stanback rushed for a team-high 660 yards and 10 TDs, but his YPC average (3.7) was pedestrian. Perriman finished the regular season with 41 receptions for 906 yards and nine TDs.

-- UCF went 2-2 ATS in four games as a single-digit favorite.

-- UCF has won three consecutive bowl games, including last year's 52-42 win over Baylor as a 16.5-point underdog at the Fiesta Bowl.

-- The 'under' is 6-5-1 overall for N.C. St., going 4-2-1 in its last seven regular-season games.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for UCF, but we'll note a 4-2 run for the 'over' in its last six games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday night in Motown. ESPN will have the telecast.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

St Petersburg Bowl, 12/26
Central Florida started year in Ireland, ends it 90 miles from home; they should have crowd edge here. O'Leary won/covered his last three bowls, beating Baylor in Fiesta Bowl LY; they're 1-1 in this bowl. Knights won last four games by average score of 33-11; they're 4-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread. NC State won three of last four games after 0-4 skid in middle of year; they're 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Pack is 3-2 in last five bowls, Doeren is 1-0 as bowl coach, back in '11. Faves won/covered this bowl four of last five years; last three stayed under the total. NC State was 3-9 LY, so they're happy to be in a bowl, any bowl.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit 12/26
North Carolina lost four straight games early in year, allowing average of 51 ppg; they rallied to win four of last six games, but still allowed 34+ in eight of last ten games- they're 4-3 in tilts with a single digit pointspread. Rutgers covered seven of last ten games; they're 6-0 in games if spread is single digits- they lost 13-10/29-16 in last two bowls, lost 17-13/24-22 in last two meetings with Tar Heels. North Carolina is 3-2 in its last five bowls, with average total in last three, 59.3. Underdogs won/covered this bowl four of last five years, with three of last four going over total- game is in a dome, so no weather worries. We have a selection on this below.

Heart of Dallas Bowl, 12/26
7-5 Louisiana Tech lost three games by 3 points, losing to a I-AA team, but they're 6-0 vs spread in games with single digit spread. C-USA teams are surprising 14-7 in last 21 bowls, 8-3 vs spread when favored. Illinois is 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Both teams are in their first bowl since '11: Tech got hosed out of going to bowl in '12- they figure to have crowd edge, playing Big 14 foe. Tech is 1-3-1 in last five bowls; Holtz is 2-3 as bowl coach. Illini won 38-14/20-14 in last two bowls; Beckman is 0-1 as bowl coach, losing 34-32 to FIU in Detroit in '10. Favorites are 4-0 in this bowl, 3-1 vs spread; three of four went over total.




NCAAF

Friday, December 26

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Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Preview: Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
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Illinois Fightin Illini vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-6, 58)

Game to be played at Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

1. One of the many setbacks during Illinois coach Tim Beckman’s first year on the job was a blowout loss to Louisiana Tech. With an eye on their first winning season under his watch, the Illini look to avenge that defeat versus the Bulldogs in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. Little went right for Beckman’s 2-10 squad in 2012, but perhaps no game encapsulated the season more than when Illinois committed six turnovers in a 52-24 home loss to the Bulldogs, which began a season-ending nine-game skid.

2. Few players in the country can match the production of Louisiana Tech running back Kenneth Dixon, who has scored in a FBS-high 12 consecutive games and posted a Conference USA-best 26 total touchdowns this season. The junior running back is the only player in the country with an 80-plus yard TD run and catch in 2014 and has 59 career scores from scrimmage (tied for 19th-best in FBS history). Dixon, who has run for 3,347 yards in his career, is also six yards shy of becoming the program’s all-time leading rusher.

3. The Illini’s Mike Dudek, who leads all FBS freshman in receiving yards (80.4), was the Big Ten’s top receiver in conference play, posting 50 catches for 716 yards. The second-team all-conference selection set Illinois’ freshman records for receptions (69) and receiving yards (965) while tying the touchdown mark (six) set by College Football Hall of Famer David Williams. Dudek is trying to become the eighth player in school history with 1,000 receiving yards in a season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: After opening at LT-5, action quickly had book adjusting the line a full point to -6. The total has been falling since it opened at 63 and currently sits at 58.

INJURY REPORT: Illinois - LB Mike Svetina (Ques-Foot) Louisiana Tech - DL Malcom Pichon (Ques-Suspension), DL Aaron Brown (Ques-Suspension), OL Mitchell Bell (Ques-Suspension), LB Terrell Pinson (Ques-Suspension)

WEATHER REPORT: Weather is expected to be overcast with a low 16 percent chance of rain. Wins will be gusting upwards of 12 mph towards the south.

ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): While the Illini ranked 112th in scoring defense (33.9 points per game) and 105th in total defense among the 125 FBS teams, they proved to be opportunistic in their three league wins, recording 10 of their 18 takeaways and two of their four defensive scores. “If you look at the three wins, we played very good defense. Honestly, those three games were won because of our defense,” Beckman told The Daily Illini. Junior cornerback V'Angelo Bentley, who sealed a 28-24 victory over Minnesota with a fumble return for a touchdown, is the only player in school history to return a kickoff, punt, interception and fumble for a score in his career.

ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U): Although the Bulldogs committed the second-most giveaways in their conference (25), they made up for it by forcing the most takeaways in the country (40), which led to a FBS-high 164 points off turnovers. Louisiana Tech recorded at least three takeaways in each of its final five regular-seasons contests and has collected multiple turnovers in all but one of its last 15 games dating back to last season. Some of the chaos the Bulldogs created on defense can be attributed to former Illini defensive end Houston Bates, who led the team with 12 quarterback hurries and earned a second-team all-conference nod.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
*Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-1 in Fighting Illini last 6 vs. CUSA.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games on fieldturf.

CONSENSUS: 58.67 percent of users are backing LT -6, with 52.64 percent on the over.


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NCAAF

Friday, December 26

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St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Preview: North Carolina State vs. UCF
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North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. UCF Knights (-2, 49.5)

Game to be played at Tropicana Field, St. Petersberg, Florida

1. When we last saw UCF, the Knights were storming the field following a Hail Mary catch by Breshad Perriman to defeat East Carolina and claim a share of the American Athletic Conference title. The dramatic win helped UCF earn a berth in the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl against North Carolina State, which won three of its last four games. The teams have split their two previous meetings, with North Carolina State recording a 28-21 victory in 2010.

2. While UCF is seeking its fourth consecutive bowl victory, North Carolina State is returning to the postseason after going 3-9 in 2013. The Knights boast one of the nation’s top defenses, led by linebacker Terrance Plummer and cornerback Jacoby Glenn, who is tied for third in the country with seven interceptions. Plummer has a team-high 92 tackles for UCF, which allows 17.9 points per game - ninth in the nation.

3. UCF’s stout defense should be tested by a North Carolina State offense that outscored its final two opponents – Wake Forest and North Carolina – by a combined 77-20. The Knights boast the nation’s fifth-best rushing defense, but the Wolfpack rushed for 388 yards in a 35-7 victory over North Carolina to end the regular season. Shadrach Thornton led the way with 28 carries for 161 yards.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The spread has seen a slight move from opening, where UCF was favored by 1.5-points compared to the current -2. The total has dropped 0.5 points since opening from 50 to 49.5.

INJURY REPORT: North Carolina - N/A UCF - RB Dontravious Wilson (Ques-Shoulder)

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): After jumping to a 24-7 first-quarter lead over Florida State on Sept. 27, the Wolfpack ended up falling 56-41 and losing their next three games. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has run for 498 yards and three scores. Mike Rose has 14 tackles-for-loss to lead the defense, which allowed an average of 15.9 points in its seven victories.

ABOUT UCF (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Knights opened with losses to Penn State and Missouri before winning five in a row, including a 31-24 overtime victory over BYU. While the defense has been a strength all season, the offense struggled early before averaging 33 points during a four-game winning streak to close the regular season. Quarterback Justin Holman has thrown 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while Perriman has caught a TD pass in seven straight games.

TRENDS:

*Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
*Knights are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
*Under is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
*Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games following a S.U. win.

CONSENSUS: 62.23 percent of users are backing UCF -2, with the total slightly leaning towards the under (50.6).



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NCAAF

Friday, December 26


Action Report: L.A. Tech the hot bet vs. Illinois

Illinois and Louisiana Tech's Dec. 26 matchup is seeing an outpour of support on the favorited Bulldogs at Sportsbook.ag.

"We opened L.A. Tech at -6 and saw some decent two-way action at that number," said oddsmaker Peter Childs. "But in the past few days we've seen some decent support for the fave in this game."

"The Bulldogs have received over 70 percent of bets this week, which has moved our number from -6 to -6.5," said Childs. "At -6.5 we're starting to see more balanced action, and unless a sharp group places a wager on this one, we'll be closing it at -6.5."




NCAAF

Bowl Season


Action Report: Public jumping all over Sooners

The Russell Athletic Bowl between Oklahoma and Clemson is kicking off on Dec. 29, and at one book, the action is completely one sided.

"We opened Oklahoma at -3 and have seen nothing, and I mean nothing but Sooners money," said Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "We moved to -3 -120 quickly, but didn't stay there long as the floodgates opened up once again on the favorite."

"We moved the number to -3.5 but had to up that to -4 as more support came in on Oklahoma," said the oddsmaker. "Over 90 percent of wagers are on Oklahoma, which is a major concern because the wiseguys haven't taken any of the +4. That means we might have to push this line to -4.5 - a long ways away from our opening number of -3."


Action Report: Bettors on Baylor in Cotton Bowl

At Sportsbook.ag, it's quite clear which side the majority of the betting public is behind in the Cotton Bowl.

"The public is getting on board of the Baylor bandwagon," said Peter Childs, an oddsmaker for the book. "We've seen nothing but Baylor money come in the past week, pushing us from Baylor -3 +100 to -3 flat."

But Childs isn't convinced that bettors flocking to the chalk is the right call.

"I definitely question the mindset of this Baylor team," the oddsmaker said. "They more or less campaigned for the playoffs and got snubbed, so this has to be a major disappointment for them."


Action Report: Money showing up on Seminoles

With the Rose Bowl inching closer, action at one book is starting to pour in on the the Seminoles.

"We're starting to see more money come in on Florida State," said Peter Childs, an oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag. "Just this morning we went from Florida +9 -120/Oregon -9 +100 to a flat 8."

"We've further dropped the moneyline price to Oregon -300/Florida State +250 for the contest," said Childs.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Top Action

December 24, 2014


Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5)

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Cotton Bowl Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisiana Tech -6, Total: 58

After winning two straight games to reach six victories, Illinois tries to extend the win surge at the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Louisiana Tech on Friday.

The Illini really struggled in the first 10 games of the year, as they went 3-7 ATS and managed just four SU wins. They put things together at the right time though, with victories as the underdog against both Penn State and Northwestern, and winning by an average of 8.0 PPG. Part of their success was being able to secure the football, as they did not turn over the pigskin in any of the final three contests. They last made a bowl in back-to-back seasons (2010 and 2011) while winning each time (SU and ATS) by an average of 15.0 PPG.

The Bulldogs did well enough to earn a spot opposite Marshall in the C-USA championship game after being 7-1 SU in conference action, and finished a strong 10-3 ATS overall. They nearly earned an upset win against the Thundering Herd on Dec. 6 as 8.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss while forcing four turnovers, but could not get past the double-digit win program. Much of Louisiana Tech's solid play stemmed from its ability to create turnovers, as it racked up the most takeaways in FBS with 40.

The Bulldogs' last postseason appearance came in 2011 at the Poinsettia Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs against TCU when they wound up on the wrong side of a tight contest, losing 31-24. These teams did meet recently in 2012 and played an ugly 52-24 game with Louisiana Tech coming away the victor as the 3-point road underdog. There were nine total turnovers between the two clubs, as Illinois fumbled five times while adding an interception.

Some trends to keep an eye on for Friday include that the Fighting Illini are 7-5 ATS (58%) after a game where they committed one or less turnovers in the past three seasons, while being a poor 21-42 ATS (33%) after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers since 1992. There are no significant injuries to either school in this one that could affect the outcome of the game.

Illinois had a solid passing attack this season (243.2 YPG), but failed to do much of anything with its ground game (117.1 YPG, 15th-worst in FBS) and scored a mere 26.6 PPG. QB Reilly O’Toole (1,049 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) started for this team in each of the final two wins while averaging 152 YPG with 4 TD and 1 INT. He also made a big difference with his ability to run the ball as he had 147 rushing yards on 21 attempts (7.0 YPC) in the Nov. 29 win over Northwestern on the road.

HB Josh Ferguson (685 rush yards, 8 TD) has averaged 4.9 YPC on the year, and he is coming off a solid performance (95 rush yards, 2 TD) against Northwestern to cap off the 2014 regular season. He was a big part of the receiving game as well with 44 catches for 373 yards (8.5 avg) and 2 TD. The toughest matchup on this offensive unit is WR Mike Dudek (965 rec yards, 6 TD) who had three scores in the final three games and managed two games over 100 yards on the year.

LB Mason Monheim (108 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 TD) and DB Zane Petty (104 tackles) have done their best to solidify this defense, but it has just not worked, as the unit is surrendering 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in nation) and 464.3 YPG of offense (14th-worst in FBS).

Louisiana Tech’s offense looked solid for a majority of the season, finishing with 37.5 PPG (13th in FBS) behind 242.6 passing YPG and 151.1 rushing YPG. QB Cody Sokol (3,189 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has been great in his senior year with three games over 300 passing yards in the final six games while performing poorly in the C-USA championship game against Marshall. In that contest he was a mere 7-for-20 (35%) for only 72 yards and tossed an interception.

HB Kenneth Dixon (1,236 rush yards, 21 TD) averaged 133 YPG over the past three games while getting into the end zone 10 times in the final four contests. Dixon was able to get some big plays in the passing game as well this season, totaling 306 yards on 26 catches (11.8 avg) and five touchdowns.

WR Trent Taylor (814 rec yards, 9 TD) was the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense and scored seven of his nine touchdowns over the final five games. He also had two performances with 110+ receiving yards.

The defense for the Bulldogs did well this season in giving up 25.2 PPG to their opponents, as they were tremendous against the run (117.9 YPG, 15th in FBS). DBs Xavier Woods (62 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Adairius Barnes (44 tackles, 5 INT, 4 TFL) were able to create plenty of turnovers, and will once again be spotlighted as they look to make some big plays.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 67

North Carolina tries to finish its season with a winning record when it collides with Rutgers on Friday in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.

These two teams have built up nice momentum with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland in its regular-season finale, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don't have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo has given opponents fits all year with 10 TD grabs and a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, but he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games.

Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG and 496 total YPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG on 525 total YPG. While the Knights are 31-15 ATS in away non-conference games since 1992, the Tar Heels are 16-6 ATS in this same timeframe in non-home games off a conference home loss.

While Rutgers will be without DB Kiy Hester (personal) and top RB Desmon Peoples (undisclosed) is doubtful, North Carolina may not have questionable DB Ryan Mangum (undisclosed), but RB Elijah Hood (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Friday.

Rutgers scores only 25.6 PPG on 379 total YPG this season, but has been better in non-home games (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) with 26.2 PPG on 391.5 total YPG. Defensively is where the school really struggles though, allowing 30.9 PPG on 440 total YPG (6.5 yards per play). The Knights gain 148 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 231 passing YPG (8.2 YPA), but they allow 213 rushing YPG (5.6 YPC) and 228 passing YPG (7.7 YPA).

Senior QB Gary Nova (2,667 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 20 TD, 12 INT) is coming off a monster game at Maryland on Nov. 29 when he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That was quite a turnaround from the 3 TD and 5 INT that he amassed in his previous five games combined.

His main target is WR Leonte Carroo (53 rec, 1,043 yards, 10 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving efforts and three multi-touchdown performances this season. He caught six passes for 104 yards and two scores in the last game at Maryland. Sophomore WR Janarion Grant (25 rec, 312 yards, 0 TD) also had a big day against the Terrapins with eight receptions for 105 yards.

With top RB Desmon Peoples (447 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) unlikely to play, the bulk of the rushing workload will reside with freshman RB Robert Martin (334 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) who has rushed for 208 yards (5.2 YPC) and 4 TD in his past three games. The Knights need to be more careful with the football on Friday, as they have at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this season, including five giveaways in the past two contests. The defense has only three multi-takeaway efforts in the past 10 games.

North Carolina's offense has scored a hefty 34.3 PPG (33rd in nation), thanks in large part to an air attack gaining 279.3 YPG (24th in FBS) and much smaller part to the ground game with 146.2 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense has really hurt this program though, as it allows 38.9 PPG overall (119th in nation) on 496 total YPG (6.4 yards per play). The Heels have been hurt in both facets, as they surrender 232 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 263 passing YPG (8.5 YPA).

Junior QB Marquise Williams (2,870 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) is coming off his worst game of the season in the 35-7 defeat versus NC State (11-of-22, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but has thrown for more than 275 yards in five of his past nine games, while tossing multiple TD passes seven times during the 2014 season. Williams is also the team's leading rusher with 737 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TD on the ground.

The team will try to get RB T.J. Logan (472 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) back on track after he gained a mere 11 yards on six touches in the last game, which was a far cry from his 271 total yards and 2 TD in his previous two contests. UNC has a host of talented receivers with four players surpassing 400 yards through the air. Sophomore WRs Ryan Switzer (55 rec, 703 yards, 4 TD) and Mack Hollins (34 rec, 611 yards, 18.0 avg, 8 TD) are the top targets for Williams, but the duo combined for just 36 yards on six catches in the Nov. 29 loss. North Carolina has committed multiple turnovers in 6-of-12 games this year, but has also forced multiple turnovers five times during the 2014 season.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Central Florida Knights (9-3)

St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: UCF -2, Total: 49

Two schools looking to extend their win streaks meet in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl when NC State faces American Athletic Conference co-champion Central Florida.

Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. The school has also won two of its past three bowl games.

UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at South Florida and East Carolina thanks to a final-play Hail Mary. This school is riding a three-game bowl win streak, including a 52-42 upset of 17-point favorite Baylor in the Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl.

Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and also rushed for 498 yards, but it's not easy piling up yards versus a Knights team allowing a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won three road games this season, and both won big at South Florida, with NC State prevailing 49-17, and UCF winning 16-0.

The Wolfpack are 22-10 ATS in non-home games after a bye week since 1992, while the Knights are 10-0 ATS in the past two seasons after playing their previous game on the road.

The only significant injury for either team is Central Florida G Joey Grant, who is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury.

NC State has a very balanced offense with 206 rushing YPG (37th in nation) on 5.4 YPC and 196 passing YPG, leading to 29.8 PPG. The offense has also done well in its five road games (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) by chewing up the clock for 32:54 in time of possession and outgaining these hosts by 56 yards per game.

QB Jacoby Brissett (2,344 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 5 INT) has not only thrown the ball exceptionally well, but has chewed up 498 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and three scores for the season. This includes his 167 yards on just 14 carries (11.9 YPC) in the upset at North Carolina on Nov. 29.

The team's main ball carrier is junior Shadrach Thornton (811 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD) who closed out the regular season with back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards and one touchdown. When Brissett does drop back to pass, he'll first look for WR Bo Hines (42 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD), who is the only wideout on NC State with at least 350 receiving yards. Sophomore TE David Grinnage (25 rec, 331 yards, 5 TD) is the main red-zone threat with his 6-foot-5, 269-pound frame.

On defense, the Wolfpack allow a pedestrian 27.0 PPG (68th in nation), while giving up only 197 passing YPG and 176 rushing YPG. Although they were unable to stop Georgia Tech's triple option that hung 479 rushing yards on NC State on Nov. 8, since that date, the Wolfpack have held their two opponents to 88 rushing yards on 63 carries (1.4 YPC). They have also done a great job of forcing turnovers with eight takeaways in the past four games.

Central Florida's offense scores only 28.2 PPG (including 21.3 PPG away from home) and gains 362.8 total YPG. This is split into a breakdown of 132 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) and 231 passing YPG. It has been the defense that has carried this club, allowing only 17.9 PPG on 282.8 total YPG (4.3 yards per play).

Sophomore QB Justin Holman (2,661 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 TD, 13 INT) has stepped in admirably this year for the departed Blake Bortles, throwing at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. Holman has been helped greatly by the presence of RB William Stanback (659 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD), who after a two-game absence, made his triumphant return on Dec. 4 in East Carolina with 101 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) to help the Knights pull off the stunning victory as 6.5-point underdogs.

Central Florida also has another star in junior WR Breshad Perriman (906 rec yards, 9 TD), who is a beast to bring down with his 6-foot-3 frame and averages 22.1 yards per reception. Perriman was on the receiving end of Holman's 51-yard TD pass on the final play of the Dec. 4 win at ECU. That 32-30 win gave the Knights a share of the conference title with Memphis. Turnovers have been a problem for the Knights this year, as they have at least one giveaway in nine straight games, totaling 23 miscues in this stretch. But the UCF defense has been the equalizer with eight games of at least two takeaways.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet

December 24, 2014


**Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech**

-- Louisiana Tech (8-5 straight up, 10-3 against the spread) and Illinois will square off in the Heart of Dallas Bowl at Cotton Bowl Stadium. As of Christmas Eve, the Bulldogs were listed as a six-point favorites with a total of 57.5. Gamblers can take the Illini on the money line for a +190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

-- Illinois (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) became bowl eligible by winning back-to-back games to close the regular season. First, the Illini won a 16-14 decision over Penn St. as a five-point home underdog. Then in the regular-season finale, Tim Beckman's team won 47-33 at Northwestern as a 7.5-point road underdog. These wins garnered the program its first trip to the postseason under Beckman, who will now be retained after his status was very much in limbo going into the game against PSU.

-- Illinois senior quarterback Riley O'Toole was the catalyst against the Wildcats. He completed 17-of-28 passes for 147 yards and three touchdowns. O'Toole also rushed for 147 yards on 21 carries. Josh Ferguson rushed for 95 yards and a pair of TDs on 15 carries.

-- O'Toole will get his third straight start vs. La. Tech. For the season, he completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 1,049 yards with a 9/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. O'Toole also rushed for 261 yards and one score. Wes Lunt, a transfer from Oklahoma St., was the starter in September before going down with a leg injury. Lunt is healthy now and could see playing time, but Beckman is going to stay with O'Toole as the starter. Lunt connected on 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,729 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- Illinois freshman WR Mike Dudek had an extraordinary season, hauling in 69 receptions for 965 yards and six TDs. The second-team All Big 10 selection can become just the eighth player in school history to record 1,000 receiving yards.

-- Illinois RB Josh Ferguson rushed for a team-high 685 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

-- La. Tech was a perfect 7-0 ATS in games played against teams that are in the postseason.

-- La. Tech won Conference USA's West Division thanks to a 7-1 record in league play. However, the Bulldogs lost 26-23 at Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. They did hook up their supporters as eight-point road underdogs.

-- Skip Holtz suspended six La. Tech players due to academic issues prior to the loss at Marshall. Five of those six players were starters and they remain 'out' for the bowl game.

-- La. Tech is going bowling for the first time since 2011. It went 4-8 last year in Holtz's first year at the helm. In 2012, Sonny Dykes' last season with the program, the Bulldogs went 9-3 but declined an invite to the Independence Bowl and then were inexplicably left out of the postseason mix altogether.

-- La. Tech is led by RB Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,236 yards and 21 TDs. Dixon, who averages 5.2 YPC, also had five TD catches. His 26 TDs were the most in C-USA.

-- La. Tech QB Cody Sokol threw for 3,189 and had a 29/13 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. Sokol, a transfer from Iowa, has Trent Taylor as his favorite target. The sophomore WR has 62 catches for 814 yards and nine TDs.

-- These schools had one common opponent: Western Ky. La. Tech took the Hilltoppers behind the woodshed in a 59-10 thrashing as a 7.5-point home favorite. Illinois rallied past Western Ky. for a 42-34 win as a 3.5-point home favorite.

-- Illinois has been an underdog eight times, posting a 4-4 spread record with three outright victories.

-- La. Tech owns a 4-0 spread record when listed as a single-digit 'chalk.'

-- La. Tech's defense led the nation in takeaways with 40.

-- The 'over' is 8-4-1 overall for LT, but the 'under' is 3-2-1 in its last six games. The Bulldogs' games have averaged a combined score of 62.8 points per game.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for Illinois (6-6) with its games averaging 60.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Rutgers vs. North Carolina**

-- North Carolina and Rutgers are poised to collide at the Quick Lane Bowl on Friday afternoon at Ford Field in Detroit. ESPN will have the broadcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

-- As of Christmas Eve, most books had UNC installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 67. The Scarlet Knights are available for a +140 payout if they win outright.

-- North Carolina (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) needs a win over Rutgers to avoid its first losing season since 2007. The Tar Heels, who are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, won four of its last six games to get bowl eligible. -- UNC won four of its 10 games against bowl-bound schools. The victories included scalps of San Diego St., Ga. Tech, Pitt and Duke. Larry Fedora's team went into Durham on a Thursday night (Nov. 20) and blasted the Blue Devils by a 45-20 count as a five-point underdog. The offense rolled up 591 yards of total offense thanks to the sensational play of QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 276 yards and two TDs without an interception. Williams also ran for 98 yards and a pair of scores on 21 carries. T.J. Logan rushed for a team-high 116 yards and one TD.

-- After crushing Duke, UNC hosted North Carolina St. in its regular-season finale. The Tar Heels got trounced 35-7 as 6.5-point favorites. Fedora's team had scored at least 17 points in its 11 previous games this year. The Wolfpack held UNC to a season-low 208 yards of total offense and knocked Williams out of the game with an injury in the third quarter.

-- Williams, who is completely healthy now, completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,875 yards with a 20/9 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for a team-high 732 yards and 12 TDs. WR Ryan Switzer caught a team-best 55 balls for 708 yards and four TDs.

-- Rutgers (7-5 SU, ATS) closed the regular season by capturing a 41-38 win at Maryland as a 7.5-point underdog. Kyle Flood's squad trailed 35-10 late in the second quarter, but the game turned when QB Gary Nova found Andre Patton for a one-yard TD pass with nine seconds left until halftime. RU received in the second half and promptly scored on a one-yard TD plunge from Robert Martin just 73 seconds into the third quarter. On the first play of the final stanza, Nova threw a 10-yard TD pass to Patton to pull even at 38-38. Midway through the fourth quarter, Kyle Federico buried a 25-yard field goal for the winning points, as the RU defense made the lead hold up.

-- Nova threw for 347 yards and four TDs without an interception in the win over the Terrapins. For the season, Nova has connected on 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,667 yards with a 20/12 TD-INT ratio.

-- Rutgers is making its fourth consecutive bowl appearance. The Scarlet Knights have come up short in their last two bowl games, losing 29-16 to Notre Dame at last year's Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. We should note, however, that RU took the cash as a 14-point underdog to the Irish. Two season ago at the Russell Athletic Bowl, RU dropped a 13-10 decision to Va. Tech as a two-point 'dog in overtime. In 2011, RU captured its most recent bowl triumph by besting Iowa St. 27-13 as a one-point puppy.

-- RU owns a 6-1-1 spread record in its last eight postseason appearances.

-- As a single-digit favorite this year, UNC posted a 2-2 spread record.

-- Rutgers has compiled a 5-3 spread record with three outright wins in eight games as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights lost five of seven games against bowl-bound foes.

-- The 'over' is 7-5 overall for RU, cashing in five of its last seven regular-season games. RU's game have averaged a combined score of 56.5 PPG.

-- The 'under' is 6-5 overall for UNC after cashing in four of its last five games. The Tar Heels have seen their games average a combined score of 73.2 PPG.

**North Carolina State vs. Central Florida**

-- The ACC and the AAC will face each other when UCF and North Carolina St. face each other at the St. Petersburg Bowl at the Trop. As of Christmas Eve, most books had Central Florida (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 2.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 49.

-- After limping to a 3-9 record in Dave Doeren's debut season in Raleigh, North Carolina St. (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) won its first four games and then had a 17-point lead over top-ranked Florida St. in the third quarter of their ACC showdown. However, the Seminoles rallied and eventually collected a 56-41 win. That first defeat started a four-game losing streak, but the Wolfpack won three games (at Syracuse, vs. Wake Forest and at North Carolina) in November to ensure a winning campaign.

-- North Carolina St. coasted to a 35-7 win at North Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog in the regular-season finale for both schools. QB Jacoby Brissett rushed for 167 yards and one TD, in addition to throwing three TD passes without an interception. Shadrach Thornton ran for 161 yards and one TD.

-- Brissett, a fourth-year junior who sat out the 2013 campaign after transferring from Florida, has been the catalyst for N.C. St. all year long. Brissett threw for 2,344 yards with a 22/5 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 498 yards and three TDs.

-- Thornton rushed for a team-high 811 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC.

-- N.C. St. went 4-2 with a pair of outright wins in six games as an underdog.

-- UCF lost its first two games to Penn St. (26-24) and Missouri (38-10), only to respond by winning nine of its last 10 games. George O'Leary's team brings a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS to the Sunshine State. The Knights closed the regular season with a 32-30 win at East Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog. On the final play of the game, Justin Holman found Breshad Perriman for a 51-yard TD pass on a Hail Mary play.

-- UFC had led ECU by a 26-9 score early in the fourth quarter, but the Pirates rallied and took a 30-26 lead with 2:17 left in the fourth quarter. But Holman's TD pass, his first of the night, helped the Knight avoid what would've been a painful defeat. Holman threw for 274 yards and wasn't intercepted by ECU. William Stanback rushed for 101 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- For the season, Holman completed 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,661 yards with a 20/13 TD-INT ratio. Stanback rushed for a team-high 660 yards and 10 TDs, but his YPC average (3.7) was pedestrian. Perriman finished the regular season with 41 receptions for 906 yards and nine TDs.

-- UCF went 2-2 ATS in four games as a single-digit favorite.

-- UCF has won three consecutive bowl games, including last year's 52-42 win over Baylor as a 16.5-point underdog at the Fiesta Bowl.

-- The 'under' is 6-5-1 overall for N.C. St., going 4-2-1 in its last seven regular-season games.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for UCF, but we'll note a 4-2 run for the 'over' in its last six games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday night in Motown. ESPN will have the telecast.

[StarDust Bum]

2014-15 Bowl Betting Results

December 24, 2014


BOWL CONFERENCE STANDINGS

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)

ACC - -

American (AAC) 1-0 1-0

Big 10 - -

Big 12 - -

CUSA 3-1 2-2

Independent 1-1 1-1

Mid-American 1-3 2-2

Mountain West 2-4 2-4

Pac-12 1-0 1-0

SEC - -

Sun Belt 1-1 1-1


OVERALL GAME RESULTS

Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss

Favorite 6 4 5 5

Underdog 4 6 5 5

Over Under
5 5


2014-15 BOWL SCHEDULE - RESULTS

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS/Total

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Orleans Bowl Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5, 62.5 16-3 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Mexico Bowl Utah State vs Texas-El Paso 10, 45.5 21-6 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Las Vegas Bowl Utah vs Colorado State 3, 57 45-10 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Idaho Potato Bowl Western Michigan vs Air Force 2.5, 59 38-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 20 Camellia Bowl South Alabama vs Bowling Green 3.5, 55 33-28 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 22 Miami Beach Bowl Brigham Young vs Memphis 1.5, 56 55-48 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Marshall vs Northern Illinois 8.5, 68 52-23 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs San Diego State 3, 52 17-16 Underdog-Under

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Bahamas Bowl Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky 3.5, 68 49-48 Underdog-Over

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Hawai'i Bowl Fresno State vs Rice 1, 59 30-6 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 Heart of Dallas Bowl Illinois vs Louisiana Tech - - -

Friday, Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Rutgers vs North Carolina - - -

Friday, Dec. 26 St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State vs UCF - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Independence Bowl Miami-Fla. vs South Carolina - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs Penn State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs Southern California - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs West Virginia - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Russell Athletic Bowl Oklahoma vs Clemson - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs Texas - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs Louisiana State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Belk Bowl Georgia vs Louisville - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Foster Farms Bowl Maryland vs Stanford - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Peach Bowl Mississippi vs Texas Christian - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl Boise State vs Arizona - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Orange Bowl Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Auburn vs Wisconsin - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl Michigan State vs Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl Missouri vs Minnesota - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl - National Semifinal Oregon vs Florida State - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl - National Semifinal Alabama vs Ohio State - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs Pittsburgh - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Taxslayer Bowl Iowa vs Tennessee - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Alamo Bowl Kansas State vs UCLA - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Cactus Bowl Washington vs Oklahoma State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 3 Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Florida - - -

Sunday, Jan. 4 Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State - - -

Monday, Jan. 12 National Championship Game TBD vs TBD - - -

**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 27 MILITARY BOWL

Va Tech Beamer: 7-2 ATS as a dog off SU underdog win
Cincinnati 3-8 ATS as bowlers s/ 2000 (1-5 ATS vs opp off SUATS win)

SUN BOWL

Duke ACC bowlers are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS vs Pac-12 opp
Arizona St 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS last six bowl games

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Miami Fla 6-win bowl favs are 8-2 ATS vs 6-win bowl dogs
S Carolina 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS L12 games vs ACC opp

PINSTRIPE BOWL

Penn St Big Ten bowlers off BB SUATS losses are 12-2-1 ATS
Boston Coll Tied nationally with Missouri for fewest fumbles lost (3)

HOLIDAY BOWL

Nebraska Big Ten bowlers are 7-12 ATS vs Pac-12 opp
Usc 1st year coaches off ATS win of 24 > points are 6-2 SUATS

Monday, December 29 LIBERTY BOWL

W Virginia Big 12 bowlers are 1-9 SUATS vs SEC opp
Texas A&M Sumlin: 9-5 SU and ATS off SU favorite loss

RUSSELL ATHETIC BOWL

Clemson Held 9 opp to season low – or 2nd low – yards this year
Oklahoma Allowed fewest sacks (8) in the nation

TEXAS BOWL

Texas 1st year coaches off ATS loss of 25 > points are 0-5 SUATS
Arkansas Favorites -3 > who won 3 < games last season are 6-17 ATS

Tuesday, December 30

MUSIC CITY BOWL

Notre Dame 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS as bowlers vs opp off SU win
Lsu 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS as bowlers off a SU win

BELK BOWL

Louisville 3rd best rush defense (94 RYPG) in the nation
Georgia 4th in nation in turnover margin (+15)

FOSTER FARMS BOWL

Maryland Edsall: 10-1 ATS away with winning record off SUATS loss
Stanford Pac-12 bowlers off BB SUATS wins are 17-6 ATS

Wednesday, December 31

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL

Ole Miss 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in bowl games S/1986
Tcu 2nd in nation in turnover margin (+17) this season

FIESTA BOWL

Boise St MWC bowlers are 3-10 ATS off a SU win
Arizona 1-5 ATS as favorites vs MWC opp not off a loss of 7 > pts

ORANGE BOWL

Ga Tech Johnson: 14-1 ATS as a dog +3 > pts vs opp off SU loss
Miss St Mullen: 8-25 SU vs .750 > opp… No.1 red zone defense

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips

December 26, 2014


**Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech**

-- The American Athletic Conference (AAC) and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) collide at Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. for the Milltary Bowl Game presented by Northrup Grumman. The AAC is 1-0 SU/ATS early in the 2014 bowl season, and the Bearcats look to maintain that unblemished mark. These teams are meeting in a bowl game for the first time since the 2008 Orange Bowl when the Hokies thumped the Bearcats 20-7. It was the Bearcats winning the most recent meeting back on Sept. 29, 2012 by a 27-24 score.

-- Cincinnati (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) started the season slow, going 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS through their first five games. However, the Bearcats have been on a roll, entering the Military Bowl with seven consecutive wins, and they are 6-0-1 ATS during the impressive span. Against bowl teams this season, the Bearcats went 3-3 SU/2-3-1 ATS in six games.

-- The Bearcats are favored by three points, as of Friday night, and as a single-digit favorite this season Cincinnati is 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in six such situations.

-- Virginia Tech (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) started the season strong, winning against playoff team Ohio State on the road in Columbus by a 35-21 margin. Since that game Sept. 6 it has been mostly downhill, as the Hokies are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS. During the 10-game malaise, there have been a couple of shocking performances, including a 17-16 win at Duke Nov. 15, and a 24-20 win against Virginia in the regular season finale. Against bowl teams this season, the Gobblers are 4-5 SU/3-6 ATS in nine games.

-- The Bearcats enter this game going 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games, 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games on field turf and 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site contests. However, Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts.

-- The Hokies head to Annapolis just 4-13-2 ATS in their past 19 non-conference battles, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with an overall winning mark. The Hokies are also 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven neutral-site battles. These teams have met semi-frequently over the past few years, and the underdog has cashed in each of the past four meetings.

-- Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel is the straw that stirs the drink for the Bearcats offense. He missed parts of two games due to injury, but still topped 3,000 yards passing for the season. He managed to throw three or more touchdowns in six of his 10 complete games this season, and he went over 300 yards on four separate occasions. While Kiel is heaving it up in the air, it is generally WRs Mekale McKay and Shaq Washington camping under those passes. McKay led the team with 690 receiving yards and eight scores, while Washington had a team-best 61 receptions with 661 yards and four touchdowns. WR Chris Moore returned for the regular season finale after a two-game absence, finishing with 570 yards and six touchdowns. WRs Max Morrison and Johnny Holton show Cincinnati's tremendous depth at the wideout spot, as those two combined for 72 catches and nine touchdowns. There aren't many teams with No. 4 or 5 receivers with that type production.

-- The passing game isn't the only worry for Virginia Tech, though. Cincinnati freshman RB Mike Boone posted a team-high 601 rushing yards with nine scores, and he enters play with at least one touchdown in seven straight games, including a three-TD performance against Houston Dec. 6.

-- The Virginia Tech offense wasn't nearly as prolific as Cincinnati this season. QB Michael Brewer was adequate at times, and he completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 2,598 yards, 17 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. When he does look downfield it is the two-headed monster of WRs Isaiah Ford and Bucky Hodges. Ford led the team with 665 yards, and he has three or more catches in four straight games and nine of his past 10. Hodges posted 517 yards with seven scores, including at least one TD in three of the final four games. In the running game, it was J.C. Coleman emerging late in the season as the best threat, going for 95 or more yards in each of his final three games.

-- One key injury for Virginia Tech is CB Brandon Facyson (leg), who suffered a tibia and fibula fracture of the left leg during a bowl practice Dec. 7. And, of course, the big news is that head coach Frank Beamer had throat surgery Dec. 6, and he will coach from the press box rather than the field. Beamer did not travel with the team earlier this week, but joined the team in Annapolis Friday. Lastly, WR Deon Newsome was suspended for the Military Bowl due to a violation of team rules.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arizona State vs. Duke**

-- A pair of 9-3 teams meet at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso for the 2014 Hyundai Sun Bowl. The game pits the ACC against the Pac-12 Conference.

-- Arizona State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) heads to El Paso looking to post a 10-game campaign in back-to-back seasons for the first time since accomplishing the feat from 1970-73. It is the fourth straight season for AZ State in a bowl game, and their fifth-ever appearance at the Sun Bowl. Against bowl teams this season, the Sun Devils were 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven games.

-- Duke (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) stumbled down the stretch after heading into mid-November in the driver's seat in the Coastal Division of the ACC. They might have missed out on a second straight appearance in the ACC Championship Game, but they still had a very successful season. For some to be disappointed of their performance in November speaks volumes of how far head coach David Cutcliffe has elevated this once moribund program. In fact, this is the first time in Duke's history they are appearing in a bowl game for a third straight season. The Blue Devils were 2-3 SU/ATS in five games against bowl teams this season.

-- The Arizona State offense averaged 37.0 points per game, and it didn't matter whether QB Taylor Kelly was under center, or QB Mike Berkovici, when Kelly was injured. And not only can the Sun Devils roll it up on offense, but they finished sixth in the country with six defensive scores.

-- Duke is no slouch on offense, either, going for 32.5 point per game while clamping down on defense and allowed just 20.6 points per outing. In fact, Duke gave up 21 or fewer points in nine of their 12 games.

-- When the Sun Devils have the ball, Kelly is one to watch. He threw for 1,874 yards with 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Overall, AZ State QBs tossed for 3,316 yards with 32 TDs and nine INTs and a passer rating of 143.9. Kelly's favorite target, WR Jaelen Strong, announced he is leaving school early for the NFL. He gathered in 75 receptions for 1,062 yards and 10 scores. Surprisingly, RB D.J. Foster was second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards, hauling in 59 passes for 646 yards and three scores. He led the team with 1,002 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns.

-- QB Anthony Boone had a strong season for the Blue Devils, passing for 2,507 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also running for 346 yards and five scores. He often gave way to QB Thomas Sirk, who completed 10 of 14 passes for 67 yards and three touchdowns, while also running 45 times for 232 yards and eight scores. The biggest offensive star is WR Jamison Crowder grabbed 78 receptions for 942 yards and six touchdowns, while fellow WR Issac Blakeney also had six touchdown grabs while tying Crowder with 12.1 yards per snare. PK Ross Martin is a tremendously dependable kicker whoe made all 46 of his extra points while misfiring on just two of his 20 field goal attempts, and none from inside 40 yards.

-- Arizona State is just 1-5 ATS in their past six bowl games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six games at a neutral site. In addition, they're just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games on turf.

-- For Duke, the Blue Devils are an impressive 4-0 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning overall record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six games out of conference. Overall, they are 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 games.

-- If you are looking at the total in this game, the trends are mixed for both teams. The over is 5-1 in Arizona State's past six neutral-site games, and 6-2 in their past eight non-conference tilts. The over is also 20-9 in Arizona State's past 29 against a team with a winning overall mark. The under is 6-2 in Duke's past eight games, and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record. The line has been hovering around 64.5 heading into Saturday morning.

-- This game opened with Arizona State favored by nine, but the line has tumbled to between 7-7.5 points depending on the shop.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips

December 26, 2014

Independence Bowl – Shreveport, Louisiana
Miami (-3 ½, 61) vs. South Carolina – 3:30 PM EST – ABC

Two 6-6 squads with high expectations coming into this season look to finish off a disappointing campaign with a win. Miami enters Saturday’s action looking to snap a three-game losing streak, which was capped off by a 35-23 defeat to Pittsburgh as 10 ½-point home favorites in the regular season finale. The Hurricanes put together a nice three-game hot streak to close out October with victories over bowl squads Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech, but UM squandered a 16-0 lead in a 30-26 setback to undefeated Florida State to begin this cold stretch.

South Carolina’s season began with a thud, falling as 9 ½-point home favorites to Texas A&M, 52-28. The Gamecocks rebounded with victories over East Carolina and Georgia, but Steve Spurrier’s club has won just three games since the end of September. Two of those wins in this span were against South Alabama and Furman, while rallying late to stun Florida at the Swamp.

The Gamecocks covered three of four times in the underdog role this season, while four games have been decided by three points or less (2-2). The Hurricanes won just once in five tries away from South Florida, but that victory came in the favorite role against Virginia Tech. The ‘under’ hit in four of five road games for UM, while posting a 5-2 ATS record in the past seven as a favorite.

The Hurricanes have lost four straight bowl games with their last bowl victory coming in 2006 against Nevada in MPC Computers Bowl. South Carolina is riding a three-game bowl winning streak, while playing in its first bowl prior to New Year’s Day since a 2010 loss to Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

Pinstripe Bowl – Bronx, New York
Penn State vs. Boston College (-2 ½, 40) – 4:30 PM EST – ESPN

A pair of solid defenses get together at Yankee Stadium as both teams have lost two of their final three games. Boston College snapped a two-game skid by blowing out Syracuse in the season finale, 28-7 as 10 ½-point favorites, while Penn State’s offense struggled throughout Big Ten play, capped off by a 34-10 home setback to Michigan State.

Boston College yielded just 95 rushing yards a game, while giving up 17 points or less in six contests this season. The Eagles (7-5) were listed as a single-digit favorite just once this season, losing outright at home to Colorado State in September, 24-21 as six-point chalk. All five of BC’s losses came to bowl squads, falling to Colorado State, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Clemson, and Florida State.

Penn State (6-6) stormed out of the gate to a 4-0 record, but the Nittany Lions stumbled to a 2-6 mark down the stretch. James Franklin’s team was limited to 14 points or less in six conference games, while PSU owned the worst rushing offense in the Big Ten at 103.6 yards a game. However, the Nittany Lions limited opponents to 84.7 yards a game on the ground, which was top-ranked inside the conference.

The Eagles have struggled in bowl season recently, dropping four straight, including a 42-19 loss to Arizona in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl. Penn State is participating in its first bowl since a 30-14 setback in 2012 TicketCity Bowl against Houston, while facing an ACC team in a bowl for the first time since the 2006 Orange Bowl thriller against Florida State.

Holiday Bowl – San Diego, California
Nebraska vs. USC (-7, 62) – 8:00 PM EST – ESPN

It’s a tall task for Nebraska (9-3), who parted ways with head coach Bo Pelini following a comeback overtime victory at Iowa to close out the regular season. The Huskers are in a transition phase before Mike Riley takes over officially heading into the 2015 season. Nebraska travels to Qualcomm Stadium for a meeting with USC, who finished the season with a 49-14 blowout of rival Notre Dame to pick up its eighth victory.

The Trojans failed to cover consecutive games as a favorite this season, going 0-3 ATS in that situation with non-covers against California, Boston College, and Arizona State. USC hit the ‘under’ in four straight contests prior to an ‘over’ against Notre Dame, while splitting six games played away from the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Nebraska began the season with an impressive 8-1 mark, but stumbled with consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota prior to the win at Iowa. In both defeats to the Badgers and Golden Gophers, the Huskers squandered a 14-point lead in each setback, while putting a together a 2-1 ATS record as an underdog this season.

USC has won five of its past six bowl contests, as each of those victories came by double-digits, including a 45-20 blowout of Fresno State in last season’s Las Vegas Bowl. The Huskers have dropped three of their previous four bowl games, capped off by a 24-19 triumph over Georgia in last January’s Gator Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

2014-15 Bowl Betting Results

December 26, 2014

BOWL CONFERENCE STANDINGS

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)

ACC 1-1 1-1

American (AAC) 1-1 1-1

Big 10 1-1 1-1

Big 12 - -

CUSA 4-1 3-2

Independent 1-1 1-1

Mid-American 1-3 2-2

Mountain West 2-4 2-4

Pac-12 1-0 1-0

SEC - -

Sun Belt 1-1 1-1


OVERALL GAME RESULTS

Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss

Favorite 7 6 6 7

Underdog 6 7 7 6

Over Under
6 7


2014-15 BOWL SCHEDULE - RESULTS

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS/Total

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Orleans Bowl Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5, 62.5 16-3 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Mexico Bowl Utah State vs Texas-El Paso 10, 45.5 21-6 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Las Vegas Bowl Utah vs Colorado State 3, 57 45-10 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Idaho Potato Bowl Western Michigan vs Air Force 2.5, 59 38-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 20 Camellia Bowl South Alabama vs Bowling Green 3.5, 55 33-28 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 22 Miami Beach Bowl Brigham Young vs Memphis 1.5, 56 55-48 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Marshall vs Northern Illinois 8.5, 68 52-23 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs San Diego State 3, 52 17-16 Underdog-Under

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Bahamas Bowl Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky 3.5, 68 49-48 Underdog-Over

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Hawai'i Bowl Fresno State vs Rice 1, 59 30-6 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 Heart of Dallas Bowl Illinois vs Louisiana Tech 7, 54.5 35-18 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Rutgers vs North Carolina 3.5, 72 40-21 Underdog-Under

Friday, Dec. 26 St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State vs UCF 2, 47.5 34-27 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Independence Bowl Miami-Fla. vs South Carolina - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs Penn State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs Southern California - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs West Virginia - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Russell Athletic Bowl Oklahoma vs Clemson - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs Texas - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs Louisiana State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Belk Bowl Georgia vs Louisville - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Foster Farms Bowl Maryland vs Stanford - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Peach Bowl Mississippi vs Texas Christian - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl Boise State vs Arizona - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Orange Bowl Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - -
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Thursday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Auburn vs Wisconsin - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl Michigan State vs Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl Missouri vs Minnesota - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl - National Semifinal Oregon vs Florida State - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl - National Semifinal Alabama vs Ohio State - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs Pittsburgh - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Taxslayer Bowl Iowa vs Tennessee - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Alamo Bowl Kansas State vs UCLA - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Cactus Bowl Washington vs Oklahoma State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 3 Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Florida - - -

Sunday, Jan. 4 Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State - - -

Monday, Jan. 12 National Championship Game TBD vs TBD - - -


**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Bowl Season


Action Report: Public jumping all over Sooners

The Russell Athletic Bowl between Oklahoma and Clemson is kicking off on Dec. 29, and at one book, the action is completely one sided.

"We opened Oklahoma at -3 and have seen nothing, and I mean nothing but Sooners money," said Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag. "We moved to -3 -120 quickly, but didn't stay there long as the floodgates opened up once again on the favorite."

"We moved the number to -3.5 but had to up that to -4 as more support came in on Oklahoma," said the oddsmaker. "Over 90 percent of wagers are on Oklahoma, which is a major concern because the wiseguys haven't taken any of the +4. That means we might have to push this line to -4.5 - a long ways away from our opening number of -3."


Action Report: Bettors on Baylor in Cotton Bowl

At Sportsbook.ag, it's quite clear which side the majority of the betting public is behind in the Cotton Bowl.

"The public is getting on board of the Baylor bandwagon," said Peter Childs, an oddsmaker for the book. "We've seen nothing but Baylor money come in the past week, pushing us from Baylor -3 +100 to -3 flat."

But Childs isn't convinced that bettors flocking to the chalk is the right call.

"I definitely question the mindset of this Baylor team," the oddsmaker said. "They more or less campaigned for the playoffs and got snubbed, so this has to be a major disappointment for them."


Action Report: Money showing up on Seminoles

With the Rose Bowl inching closer, action at one book is starting to pour in on the the Seminoles.

"We're starting to see more money come in on Florida State," said Peter Childs, an oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag. "Just this morning we went from Florida +9 -120/Oregon -9 +100 to a flat 8."

"We've further dropped the moneyline price to Oregon -300/Florida State +250 for the contest," said Childs.