The Bum's 2014-15 Bowl Betting Results - Trends -Stats- Best Bets Bowl Season Thread

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Utah State, UTEP meet in New Mexico Bowl

December 19, 2014

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - A resilient Utah State is set to square off with UTEP and its run-heavy offense in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday as the college football postseason gets underway.

This season, the Aggies (9-4) have been hampered by injuries and were forced to play four quarterbacks. Somehow, their offensive line got better and all others started executing to get the Aggies within one win of double-digit victories, head coach Matt Wells said.

''It's real simple,'' Wells told reporters Friday. ''Our receivers have stepped up. We've run the ball better.''

And Wells had to use all his resources. Utah State has five players who have thrown at least two touchdown passes this season. In addition to the four quarterbacks, wide receiver Ronald Butler has thrown two touchdown passes.

Meanwhile, the Miners (7-5) are expected to use their aggressive running game to try to wear down the Aggies defense. Anchored by Aaron Jones, who is 23rd nationally in rushing yards per game (112.1), UTEP head coach Sean Kugler said he expects a very physical game since he knows Utah State will try to stack the line.

''It's very difficult to run the ball on them,'' Kugler said. ''They can get after the quarterback.''

UTEP QB Jameill Showers said the Miners will stick to their strengths so they can open up some play-action options. ''We've responded to challenges the season,'' Showers said.

But how well UTEP runs the ball will depend on Utah State's defense, led by brothers Zach and Nick Vigil, linebackers who have combined for 181 tackles.

''They are not the biggest guys but they do break a lot of tackles,'' said senior Zach Vigil, who is tied at 12th nationally in tackles for loss with 11.2 per game. ''They run hard. They don't stop their feet.''

Utah State is 3-5 in bowl games and is making its fourth straight bowl game appearance. The Aggies won the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating Northern Illinois 21-14.

UTEP has a 5-8 record in bowl games. The Miners' last postseason appearance came in the New Mexico Bowl in 2010, where they lost to BYU 52-24.

The Miners are seeking their first bowl game victory since 1967 and are coming off their first winning season since 2005.

Here are things to know when Utah State and UTEP play in the New Mexico Bowl:

GRINDING: Aaron Jones has rushed for 100 yards or more nine times in his career. This season, the sophomore led the Miners with 11 rushing touchdowns and also has three receiving touchdowns. During a game against Middle Tennessee, Jones caught a 72-yard touchdown pass. It was the longest reception of his career.

KICKING IT: Sophomore Aggies kicker Nick Diaz is ranked 29th nationally for field goal percentage (80 percent). That percentage has him tied for seventh all-time in school history for a single season. He leads the team with 78 points and is 12 of 15 on field goals.

AIR ASSAULT: While UTEP's rushing attack has remained strong, the passing game has been inconsistent. Still, Showers threw for 1,732 yards and 12 touchdowns. He's also joined the team's ground game by rushing for 288 yards and four scores.

TAKEAWAYS: Utah State has forced 29 turnovers in the last 12 games. Overall, the Aggies rank ninth nationally with 18 interceptions.

BROTHERS IN ARMS: Zach and Nick Vigil have combined for 551 career tackles to rank first at the FBS level among active brothers. They are ahead of Duke's Kelby and Kyler Brown, who have a combined 327 career tackles.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Bowl Tips

December 18, 2014


**Nevada vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**

-- The Mountain West and Sun Belt Conferences will be represented Saturday in the Crescent City, where Nevada and UL-Lafayette will collide for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. This game features a pair of record-setting quarterbacks who will be closing out their collegiate careers.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, the line was all over the place at various betting shops. Some books had one team favored by one, while others had the side as a pick 'em. The total for 'over/under' wagers is 60.5 or 61.

-- Nevada (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) won four of its last six games both SU and ATS, including a 49-27 win at UNLV in the regular-season finale at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Wolf Pack easily covered the spread as a 7.5-point road favorite, while the 76 combined points sailed 'over' the 62.5-point total. Cody Fajardo was the catalyst, accounting for four touchdowns. The senior signal caller threw three TD passes compared to one interception. Fajardo ran 13 times for 143 yards and one TD. After the Rebels cut the deficit to 21-20 midway through the third quarter, Nevada responded with 28 consecutive points. Fajardo hit Kendall Brock for a three-yard scoring strike to make it 28-20 and a few plays later, the Wolf Pack went up 35-20 on a pick-six by Lenny Jones.

-- Fajardo is one of only two QBs in FBS history (the other being fellow Nevada alum Colin Kaepernick) to throw for more than 6,000 yards and rush for more than 3,000. Fajardo ranks No. 21 in all-time total yardage and can move into 16th place with 208 yards of offense against UL-Lafayette.

-- UL Lafayette (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won seven of its last eight games, producing a 5-1-1 spread record in its last seven outings. The Ragin' Cajuns finished the regular season by cruising to a 42-23 win at Troy as 9.5-point road favorites. Elijah McGuire rushed for 169 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries, while Alonzo Harris ran 17 times for 86 yards and three TDs. Terrance Broadway connected on 14-of-19 throws for 142 yards and also ran for 78 yards on 14 totes.

-- Mark Hudspeth's squad has finished its season in this bowl game in all four years of his tenure. The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-0 both SU and ATS at the Superdome in the first postseason appearances in the school's history. They have beaten San Diego St. (32-30), East Carolina (43-34) and Tulane (24-21).

-- Broadway was the MVP of the 2012 New Orleans Bowl as a sophomore. As a senior this season, he completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards with a 12/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Broadway also rushed for 646 yards and three scores.

-- UL-Lafayette has a pair of outstanding RBs in McGuire and Harris. McGuire ran for 1,165 yards and 14 TDs this season, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. Harris rushed for 737 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 4.6 YPC.

-- Fajardo completed 59.7 percent of his throws this season for 2,370 yards and an 18/11 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for a team-best 997 yards and 13 TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. Jerico Richardson is his favorite target, hauling in 53 receptions for 626 yards and three TDs. When Fajardo isn't toting the rock himself, Don Jackson gets the bulk of the carries. Jackson rushed for 932 yards and seven scores during the regular season.

-- Nevada has lost six of its last seven bowl games. The last victory came in 2010 when the Wolf Pack beat Boston College 20-13 at the Kraft Hunger Bowl. It missed the postseason in 2013 in its first season under head coach Brian Polian, who is the son of former Colts team President Bill Polian.

-- The 'under' is 8-4 overall for Nevada, with its games averaging 59.5 points per game.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Ragin' Cajuns, who have seen their games average a combined score of 58.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**UTEP vs. Utah State**

-- The second bowl game on Saturday's slate pits UTEP vs. Utah St. in the New Mexico Bowl from Albuquerque. As of Thursday, most books had Utah St. (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 46. Gamblers can back the Miners on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

-- After going 2-10 in Sean Kugler's first season since taking over for the retired Mike Price, UTEP (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS) is in the postseason for the first time since getting thumped 52-24 to BYU at the 2010 New Mexico Bowl. The Miners have won five of their last seven games, going 6-1 ATS in the process. They have gone 4-3 ATS in seven games as underdogs, posting a 3-2 spread record in five double-digit 'dog situations.

-- Utah St. had another stellar campaign despite a myriad of injuries, including nine season-enders to starters. First, the Aggies lost one of their best defensive players in Kyler Fackrell when he tore his ACL in September. Fackrell had 82 tackles and five sacks as a sophomore in 2013. Next, star senior QB Chuckie Keeton tore his ACL (again) and was lost for the year. Then Utah St. lost its second and third-string QBs to injuries. Nevertheless, Matt Wells's squad won each of true freshman Kent Myers's first four starts.

-- Utah St. was on a five-game winning streak going into its regular-season finale at Boise St. on the smurf turf. A victory would've garnered a trip to the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but that berth went to the Broncos after they dealt out a 50-19 beating to the Aggies. BSU easily covered the number as a 10-point home 'chalk.' The Utah St. defense got blitzed by Jay Ajayi for 229 rushing yards and five TDs. Myers threw for 158 yards and was intercepted once. He ran for 43 yards and one TD.

-- Myers has made five starts and seen playing time in six games. He has completed 69.2 percent of his throws for 798 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Myers has rushed for 235 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

-- Utah St. LB Zach Vigil earned Mtn. West Defensive Player of the Year honors after recording 145 tackles (19.5 for loss) and nine sacks.

-- Vigil will be keying on UTEP RB Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 2,552 yards in his first two seasons for the Miners. Jones ran for 1,236 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

-- UTEP quarterback Jameill Showers connected on 55.7 percent of his passes for 1,732 yards with a 12/5 TD-INT ratio. Showers also rushed for 288 yards and four scores.

-- Utah St. is going bowling for a fourth straight season. The Aggies beat No. Illinois by a 21-14 count in a pick 'em affair at last year's Poinsettia Bowl. They smashed Toledo 41-15 as 10.5-point favorites at the 2012 Idaho Potato Bowl on the blue carpet.

-- Utah St. ranks 21st nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 20.8 PPG.

-- The 'over' is 7-6 overall for the Aggies, hitting in back-to-back games and four of their last six.

-- The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for the Miners to improve to 7-5 overall for the season. Their games have averaged a combined score of 57.0 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 2:20 p.m. Eastern.

**Utah vs. Colorado State**

-- The Mtn. West and Pac-12 will be represented in Sin City for Saturday's Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl. Utah and Colorado St. both had outstanding seasons that will culminate at Sam Boyd Stadium. However, CSU won't have its head coach Jim McElwain, who left to take the Florida job vacated when Will Muschamp was fired.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Utah listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Gamblers can back the Rams to win outright for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

-- Colorado St. (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is gunning for the second 11-win season in school history. Dave Baldwin, the team's offensive coordinator, will serve as the Rams' interim head coach. He was previously a head coach at San Jose St. and is hoping a bowl victory can bolster his candidacy to remain at CSU as head coach.

-- Utah (8-4 SU, 8-4 SU) is back in the postseason after going 5-7 in consecutive years. The Utes won all three of their non-conference games, including a 26-10 win over Michigan at The Big House. Kyle Whittingham's team won a pair of Pac-12 road games over Stanford and UCLA as a double-digit underdog. Utah also had a solid home win over Southern Cal and prevailed in overtime at Oregon St. The Utes went 5-1 ATS on the road, dropping a 19-16 decision at Arizona St. in overtime.

-- Utah's only non-cover on the road came in its regular-season finale when it escaped Boulder with a 38-34 win over Colorado as a seven-point road 'chalk.' Dominique Hatfield's pick-six with 10 minutes remaining provided the winning points. QB Travis Wilson threw for 311 yards and three TDs without being intercepted, while Devontae Booker rushed 25 times for 95 yards and one score. Kaelin Clay had 10 receptions for 88 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Utah has been a single-digit favorite three times, going 1-2 ATS. Meanwhile, CSU has compiled a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in three games as an underdog. The Rams won outright at Boston College and vs. Colorado in Denver.

-- Wilson threw for 2,012 yards with a 17/4 TD-INT ratio. After losing one of his top targets Dres Anderson to a season-ending injury in late October, Clay began to pick up his production. He finished the regular season with 39 catches for 460 yards and four TDs. Booker rushed for 1,350 yards and nine TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. He also had 39 receptions for 282 yards and two TDs. Clay has also scored three TDs on special-teams returns.

-- CSU is led by senior QB Garrett Grayson, who set all sorts of school records during a brilliant year. Grayson completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,779 yards with a 32/6 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is one of the nation's best WRs, Rashard Higgins, who had 89 receptions for 1,640 yards and 17 TDs. Dee Hart, a transfer from Alabama, rushed for a team-high 1,254 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.7 YPC.

-- After losing 37-24 at Boise St. in Week 2, CSU went on a nine-game winning streak that got snapped in a gut-wrenching loss at Air Force in the regular-season finale. The Falcons captured a 27-24 win as 7.5-point home underdogs thanks to a Will Conant 39-yard field goal as time expired. Grayson threw for 366 yards and three TDs, while Hart rushed for 115 yards on 23 carries. Higgins had 12 catches for 193 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Utah's defense is led by DE Nate Orchard, who set a school record with 17.5 sacks during the regular season.

-- The 'under' is on a 7-2-1 run in Utah's last 10 games and is 7-4-1 overall.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Rams, but they saw the 'over' go 4-1 in their last five games.

-- These schools are former conference rivals from the MWC. Before Utah bolted for the Pac-12 from 2005-2010, the Utes won five in a row over the Rams and cashed tickets at a 4-1 ATS clip.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:50 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Miami Beach Bowl 12/22
Memphis is in first bowl since 2008; Tigers were 12-48 last five years, are 9-3 this year; surprising coach Fuente has not been scooped up by bigger school. Tigers won last six games after 3-3 start that included loss at Ole Miss (24-3), UCLA (42-35)- they're 4-4 as favorites, 2-2 in games with single digit spread. BYU lost its QB for year, finished 8-4, winning last four games, mostly against stiffs. Cougars are 2-2 as underdogs, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Favorites covered 10 of last 11 bowls involving C-USA teams. C-USA teams are 4-3 as non-conference faves. BYU won four of its last five bowl games, losing LY to Washington.




NCAAF

Monday, December 22

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Game of the Day: BYU vs. Memphis
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BYU Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers (-1.5, 56.5)

Game to be played at Marlins Park, Miami, FL

1. BYU’s explosive offense will get a stiff test from Memphis' defense, which ranks fifth nationally with an average of 17.1 points allowed. The Tigers did not surrender more than 20 points in any of their victories and ripped through the final six contests yielding 13.3 – all wins. The Cougars put up at least 42 points in each of their final three games.

2. Memphis and BYU had a trio of common opponents as the Cougars secured wins over Middle Tennessee, Connecticut and Houston. The Tigers were edged 28-24 by Houston on Oct. 11 but closed the regular season by ripping UConn 41-10 and eased past Middle Tennessee back in September. Memphis turned over the ball five times in the loss to Houston but suffered its only other two setbacks on the road against nationally ranked teams UCLA and Ole Miss.

3. Tigers quarterback Paxton Lynch set a school record with 28 touchdowns (18 passing, 10 rushing) and did not throw an interception during the six-game winning streak that closed the regular season. The Cougars endured a four-game slide and waved goodbye to their hopes of a New Year’s Six bowl when Christian Stewart took over under center for injured starter Taysom Hill and lost his first four starts. Stewart picked up his play in four wins closing the season, recording 14 TD passes and one interception in that span.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The majority of books opened this game as a Pick, but that has moved to Memphis -1.5. The total opened at 57.5 with that dropping to 56.5.

INJURY REPORT: Cougars - WR Colby Pearson (Out, collarbone), RB Jamaal Williams (Out, knee).

ABOUT BYU (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Cougars are participating in their 10th straight bowl game and are coming in hot after Stewart’s 433-yard, five-TD performance in a win at California. BYU started the season with a dominant rushing attack led by Hill, whose dual-threat abilities resulted in 975 passing yards and 460 on the ground in his first four games, but had to rebuild around a more traditional pocket passer in Stewart. The Cougars also picked things up on the other side of the ball, limiting their last four opponents to an average of 16.3 points after surrendering 40.8 during the mid-season skid.

ABOUT MEMPHIS (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Tigers’ hot finish left them on top of the AAC and sent the team to its first bowl since 2008. “It’s a big deal,” senior cornerback Bobby McCain told reporters. “It’s big for the city, it’s big for the team and the family of brothers that we have here. To have a 10-win season is something that’s never been done before. Now we just have to go 1-0 one more time and end it with a bang.” McCain is part of a secondary that recorded 14 interceptions during the regular season and held opposing passers to an average of 218 yards.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Tigers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
* Under is 6-2 in Cougars last eight bowl games.
* Under is 6-2 in Tigers last eight non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 51 percent of bettors are on BYU.


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NCAAF

Monday, December 22


Total on the move in Miami Beach Bowl

The BYU Cougars and Memphis Tigers go head-to-head in the Miami Beach Bowl Monday, and the total has been adjusted earlier Sunday.

Most online shops had a total of 55.5 on the board heading into Sunday, but that has moved up and now most books are offering 56, while a couple have 56.5.

The total opened at 57.5 and was bet down earlier in the week, hitting 54.5 or 55 depending on the book.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami Beach Bowl Preview

December 21, 2014


Matchup: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers
Venue: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida
Date: Monday, Dec. 22, 2014
Time/TV: 2:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Memphis -1.5, Total 56

Memphis (9-3 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) has enjoyed its best season in more than a decade and returns to the postseason for the first time since 2008 when it takes on Brigham Young on Monday afternoon at Marlins Park in the Miami Beach Bowl.

As of early Sunday night, most books had the Tigers favored by two with a total of 56 for 'over/under' wagers. Memphis is -130 on the money line, while bettors can take the Cougars to win outright for a +110 return (risk $100 to win $110).

BYU (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) is going bowling for a 10th consecutive year in the 10th season of Bronco Mendenhall's tenure. In the nine previous bowl games, Mendenhall has led BYU to a 6-3 record both SU and ATS.

The Cougars closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak, including a 42-35 win at California as a three-point road underdog in the finale. Senior quarterback Christian Stewart torched the Bears for 433 passing yards and five touchdowns. Jordan Leslie had five receptions for 155 yards and two TDs, while Mitchell Juergens hauled in seven catches for 107 yards and a pair of scores.

Stewart took over as Mendenhall's starting QB after star QB Taysom Hill went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. Stewart struggled initially, throwing three interceptions in relief of Hill in a 35-20 loss to Utah St. Then the Cougars lost in Stewart's first three starts.

Since then, however, Stewart has been nothing short of sensational, posting a 14/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the four-game winning streak. For the season, Stewart has a 22/6 TD-INT ratio and four rushing scores.

Hill isn't the only star BYU lost to a season-ending injury. RB Jamaal Williams, who ran for 1,233 yards and seven TDs in 2013, went down for the year in a Nov. 1 win over Middle Tennessee by a 27-7 count. Williams never really got going this year, missing the season opener due to a suspension and most of two games with an ankle injury. In six games, he rushed for 515 yards and four TDs.

Other BYU injuries include senior starting safety Craig Bills, who won't play vs. Memphis due to a neck injury. WR Colby Pearson is also 'out' with a collarbone injury sustained in mid-November. Pearson had 16 catches for 270 yards and three TDs this season.

Memphis rolls into South Florida sporting a six-game winning streak. The Tigers won by double-digit margins in five of those six victories.

In his third season at the helm, it was clear early that Justin Fuente has his team poised for a breakout campaign. Memphis gave UCLA all it wanted and then some in Week 2, falling just short of an upset in a 42-35 loss as a 22-point underdog. Three weeks later, the Tigers gave Ole Miss fits before dropping a 24-3 decision that was much closer than the final score indicated.

Memphis caught the eye of the rest of the AAC when it went into Cincinnati on Oct. 4 and smashed the Bearcats by a 41-14 count as a three-point underdog. Sam Craft ran for 170 yards and one TD on 38 carries, while QB Paxton Lynch threw for 311 yards and two TDs without an interception. Lynch also rushed for 45 yards and a pair of scores.

For the year, Lynch completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,725 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. He also had 10 rushing TDs. During the six-game winning streak, Lynch has nine TD passes without an interception.

Brandon Hayes paced the team with 902 rushing yards and five TDs, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Keiwone Malone had 39 receptions for a team-high 480 yards and two TDs.

Memphis is fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 17.1 points per game. The Tigers have given up just 13.3 PPG in their last six outings.

BYU has been an underdog four times this year, going 2-2 both SU and ATS with outright wins at Cal and at Texas (41-7). Meanwhile, Memphis has been a single-digit favorite three times, posting a 1-2 spread record.

The 'over' is on a 7-2 run for BYU to improve to 8-4 overall on the season.

The 'over' has gone 7-5 overall for Memphis, cashing in five of its last seven contests.

Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Breakdown - Part 2

December 21, 2014


1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 Below is a quick look at the seven bowl games of the postseason scheduled from Wednesday Dec. 23 through Friday Dec. 26.

Boca Raton Bowl - Marshall vs. Northern Illinois
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 6:00 p.m. ET
Boca Raton Bowl Betting Line: Marshall -10

The Thundering Herd were one win shy of playing in a New Year's Six bowl, and it will be interesting to see how motivated they are going to be to play in this game. This isn't nearly as good of a Northern Illinois team as we are used to seeing, but it is a team which won a much underrated MAC this year.

Poinsettia Bowl - Navy vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 9:30 p.m. ET
Poinsettia Bowl Betting Line: San Diego State -2

Donnel Pumphrey is the star of the show for the Aztecs, and it will be interesting to see whether he or Keenan Reynolds does more for his team on the ground. The Aztecs clearly have the better of the two defenses in this game, and they have home field advantage on their side as well.

Bahamas Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 12:00 p.m. ET
Bahamas Bowl Betting Line: Western Kentucky -3

The Hilltoppers were awesome to watch this year, as they flew up and down the field and really had the ability to stop no one on the other side of the ball. Brandon Doughty is one of the better statistical quarterbacks in th nation, and he could shine in this one. Central Michigan's 7-5 record is a complete farce outside of its win on the road against Northern Illinois.

Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State vs. Rice
Wednesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl Betting Line: Rice -1.5

Fresno State has no defense whatsoever, and this could be a huge problem in this game against a Rice offense which really has the ability to light it up. The last time we saw the Owls, they had 76 points dropped on them by Louisiana Tech. Driphus Jackson will have to have the game of his life for Rice in this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Friday, Dec. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET
Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Line: Louisiana Tech -6

Illinois feels like a weird team in a bowl game this year. The Illini went 6-6, but they only just squeaked into a bowl game because of the weaknesses of the rest of the Big Ten. La Tech was just short of the MAC title, but this might be an even better game for it to try to prove itself against one of the power conference teams in the nation.

Quick Lane Bowl - Rutgers vs. North Carolina
Friday, Dec. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET
Quick Lane Bowl Betting Line: North Carolina -3

Expect to see a lot of offense in this one, as these two defenses both struggled quite a bit this year. Marquise Williams and Gary Nova don't look anything like one another, but they both hold the keys to their teams' success in this game at Ford Field.

St. Petersburg Bowl - NC State vs. UCF
Friday, Dec. 26, 8:00 p.m. ET
St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Line: UCF -2

The Knights are taking a big step backwards from last year's game against Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but this is still a big game for them after getting a share of the AAC crown this year. NC State ended up being a rather average team in the ACC, and it doesn't really have any signature wins which suggest to us that it can win this game.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami Beach Bowl - BYU vs. Memphis
Monday, Dec. 22, 2:00 p.m. ET
Miami Beach Bowl Betting Line: BYU -1

The Cougars and the Tigers make for interesting foes in the first ever Miami Beach Bowl at Marlins Park. The Cougs watched their season go down in flames when Taysom Hill was lost for the season, but they did rally for wins in each of their last four games. Memphis was a shocking 9-3 this year on the back of a defense which allowed more than 24 points just twice all season long. The Tigers haven't been in a bowl game since 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Bowls

December 22, 2014

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. MARSHALL (Boca Raton Bowl)...
NIU covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 this season but is 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls. Huskies also 9-4 last 13 as dog, but note poor MAC bowls marks lately (including 0-5 LY). Herd no covers last three this season but has covered last three bowls.
Slight to NIU, based on team trends.

NAVY vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Poinsettia Bowl)...
Mids 19-9 as dog since 2009, though were only 5-7 vs. spread this season. Niumatalolo 2-3 vs. line in bowls (lost 2010 Poinsettia to Brady Hoke's SDSU). Aztecs 1-2 vs. line in bowls for Rocky Long since 2011. Note SDSU "under" 11-1 this season and Navy "under" 9-4 last 13 since late 2013.
"Under," based on "totals" trends.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Bahamas Bowl)...
Note MAC teams 0-5 vs. line in bowls LY and 8-19 since 2008. Chips 2-6 vs. spread last two seasons vs. non-MAC foes. WKU covered last three in 2014 and was 4-1-1 vs. line last six this season. Teams met in 2011 Little Caesars Bowl (CMU won 24-21).
Slight to WKU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE vs. RICE (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl)...
Fresno has been rocked in its last two bowls with Tim DeRuyter. Bulldogs 2-7 vs. line last nine vs. non-MW foes. Rice 8-4 vs. spread this season 22-11 last 33 overall vs. number, and Owls have covered 4 of last 5 after SU loss.
Rice, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ILLINOIS vs. LA TECH (Zaxby's Dallas Bowl)...
Skip Holtz redemption this season, 10-3 vs. line with la tech, also 7-1 vs. spread away from Ruston. Also a redeeming season for IU's Tim Beckman, though Illini only 5-7 vs. line, and 3-6 vs. points last nine away from home. Illinois 4-11 vs. spread away from Champaign-Urbana for Beckman since 2012.
La Tech, based on team trends.

RUTGERS vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Quick Lane Detroit Bowl)...
Rutgers 5-3 as dog this season, 15-8 last 23 receiving points since 2011. Though a loser in finale vs. NC State, Tar Heels closed fast again in 2014, covering 5 of last 7 after covering 7 of last 8 a year ago. UNC also 6-3 vs. spread last nine away from Chapel Hill for Fedora.
Slight to UNC, based on team trends.

NC STATE vs. UCF (Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl)...
O'Leary has won and covered last three bowls (two of those as a dog). Knights closed fast this season, covering last four and 8 of last 10. Pack covered 4 of 5 away from Raleigh this season.
Slight to UCF, based on team trends.


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...
Beamer's 22nd straight bowl for VPI, he's 9-11-1 vs. spread the previous 21 bowls since '93 season. But Hokies only 5-7 vs. line TY and 17-34-1 vs. number since late 2010. Tuberville 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 vs. line down stretch with Bearcats this season. Teams met in 2009 Orange Bowl (Beamer a 20-7 winner over Brian Kelly's Cincy).
Cincy, based on recent trends.

DUKE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...
Duke third straight bowl for first time. Todd Graham 4-1 SU and vs. lien in bowls, but ASU only 5-7 vs. line away from Tempe past two seasons. Blue Devils 18-7-1 vs. line since 2013, and 7-3 as dog over that span. David Cutcliffe also 5-1 vs. line in bowls with Ole Miss & Duke.
Duke, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Duck Commander Independence Bowl)...
Canes 1-5 vs. line last six bowls, and Miami no covers last three this season. Canes also 2-8 vs. number last 10 away from home, and 6-14 overall last 20 vs. spread since early 2013. Spurrier has won his last three bowls and is 9-5-1 vs. points last 15 vs. non-SEC foes and 15-8 last 23 as dog since 2009.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

PENN STATE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...
Penn State only 2-6 vs. spread down the stretch in 2014. Also 1-4 vs. spread away from home and 2-9 vs. number last 11 away from Happy Valley. BC covered 7 of last 10 this season and is 14-8 vs. number last 22 on board.
BC, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)...
Interestingly, this is SC's first-ever appearance in the Holiday Bowl. Sarkisian 3-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with U-Dub. But Trojans only 2-4 vs. line away from home TY. Huskers 5-2 as dog since last season and 5-4 vs. line last nine bowls.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Boca Raton Bowl

December 23, 2014


NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (11-2) vs. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (12-1)

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Marshall -10, Total: 67

Marshall looks to extend its bowl game winning streak to four when it takes on Northern Illinois in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night.

The Huskies had a huge year as they finished the season with seven consecutive SU wins (4-3 ATS) and they capped it all off with a big 51-17 victory as 5-point favorites over Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game. Overall they had three victories when they were considered the underdog (Northwestern, Ohio and Western Michigan), as they defeated opponents by an average of 12.7 PPG during the winning streak. NIU was one of the better programs with ball security, as it turned the ball over a mere 13 times on the year. This will mark the seventh consecutive season that the school reaches a bowl game, but it has lost its previous two bowls (both SU and ATS) with defeats by an average of 14.0 PPG.

The Thundering Herd nearly had a perfect season, as they started out the year with 11 straight wins SU (7-3-1 ATS) where they defeated their opponents by 28.5 PPG. Marshall did not have a tough schedule though, as it was favored in every one of its contests and was able to come away with a C-USA title after narrowly defeating 8.5-point underdog Louisiana Tech in the championship game by a score of 26-23. They Herd have been tremendous in their past three trips to a bowl game, which came in 2009, 2011 and 2013, as they won each time (SU and ATS), including a 31-20 victory in the Eagle Bank Bowl as 2.5-point favorites against Maryland last season.

These teams have met just twice since 1992 (1999 and 2001) with the Thundering Herd winning each time (both SU and ATS). Trends show that Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points in the past two seasons, while Marshall is a solid 8-2 ATS (80%) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

The injury report has no significant omissions from the Huskies side of the ball, while HB Devon Johnson (shoulder) is expected to play in this one for the Thundering Herd.

The Huskies’ rushing game is their calling card, as they rank 14th in the nation with 252.9 YPG on the ground and add a mere 189.5 YPG through the air as they score 32.2 PPG.

QB Drew Hare (2,097 pass yards, 17 TD, 2 INT) was solid when called upon as a passer this year, and hit on 59.9% of his passes for 7.0 YPA with his second pick coming in the final game of the season. He adds a nice element with his legs also, with 850 yards (5.9 YPC) and eight rushing touchdowns.

HB Cameron Stingily (895 rush yards, 13 TD) gained 5.1 YPC on the season and was a scoring machine down the stretch as he got into the end zone 11 times over the final seven contests. He had four performances of 100+ rushing yards, including and 116 yards (7.7 YPC) and 2 TD in the MAC Championship game.

WR Da’Ron Brown (1,002 rec yards, 6 TD) was phenomenal in what is a rush-heavy offense, as he hit triple-digits in receiving yards three times and averaged 15.7 yards per catch. Brown had at least five receptions in 7-of-13 games, but had just one touchdown over the past six.

The defense for this program allowed an average of 23.6 PPG (36th in nation) as it allowed 158.5 YPG on the ground. DB Marlon Moore (93 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Jason Meehan (7 sacks, 48 tackles) do a great job of leading this side of the ball and will need to step it up in this tough matchup.

Marshall was one of the most explosive offenses in the nation this season while ranking amongst the top-20 in both passing (287.8 YPG, 18th in FBS) and rushing (275.6 YPG, 7th in nation) as it scored 45.1 PPG (5th in FBS).

QB Rakeem Cato (3,622 pass yards, 37 TD, 13 INT) had some incredible performances this season while averaging 279 YPG through the air and 8.8 YPA. He’s a big threat in the rushing game as well, rumbling for 457 yards (5.4 YPC) and 6 TD, including one game where he surpassed 100 yards on the ground.

HB Devon Johnson (1,636 rush yards, 16 TD) averaged an amazing 8.6 YPC, as he eclipsed the 100-yard mark in nine of his 12 games. He had four multi-TD performances on the year too, but could not get into the end zone in any of the final three games as he was dealing with injuries.

WR Tommy Shuler (953 rec yards, 8 TD) was the primary target for Cato, as he totaled 27 catches over the final three contests of the season where he averaged 116 YPG. The Herd have plenty of other red-zone threats besides Shuler on the team, as eight different players caught multiple TD passes over the course of the year.

They were solid on the defensive side of things as well while giving up a mere 20.8 PPG to their opponents (22nd in FBS), as they did particularly well against the pass (194.7 YPG, 25th in nation). LBs Neville Hewitt (114 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jermaine Holmes (96 tackles, 1 sack) along with DL Arnold Blackmon (8 sacks, 38 tackles) have done a great job giving their opposition trouble all season, and it should be no different come Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Bowl Tips

December 23, 2014


**Marshall vs. Northern Illinois**

-- Conference USA and the Mid-America Conference clash Tuesday on the campus of Florida Atlantic University in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl. The game features Marshall and Northern Illinois, two teams which combined for 23 wins and just three losses during the regular season.

-- Marshall, unbeaten for a majority of the season, opened as a 10.5-point favorite, with the line dropping slighly to 10 at most shops as of Tuesday morning. The total for 'over/under' opened between 64 and 64.5, but has risen as high as 67.5.

-- Marshall (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) opened the season with 11 straight victories before a 67-66 setback against Western Kentucky on Nov. 28. The team also opened the year by covering eight of their past 10 games, but they enter the Boca Bowl having failed to cover their past three. Rakeem Cato and the Thundering Herd faced just three bowl teams during the regular season, going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. However, they were able to win last time out in the Conference USA championship game, taking care of Louisiana Tech by a 26-23 count. Cato threw for 308 yards, and he has four straight games with 284 or more passing yards.

-- Cato isn't the only offensive star on the Herd. Marshall ranked fifth in scoring (45.1 points per game) thanks to their quarterback, as well as WR Tommy Shuler, TE Eric Frohnapfel and RB Devon Johnson. Shuler posted 74 catches this season, while Frohnapfel checked in with 35 grabs. The star wideout has averaged nine catches for 116 yards over the past three games, so Northern Illinois will certainly be trying to key on him.

-- Northern Illinois (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) was impressive down the stretch, winning seven consecutive games to wrap up the regular seaosn, and they covered their final three games and four of the final five. NIU crushed Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game Dec. 5 by a 51-17 count. That's the same Falcons squad which represented the MAC well with a victory over South Alabama in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Saturday. In five games against bowl teams, NIU went 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS, but they also won road games at Northwestern and UNLV. During their seven-game win streak they have won by an average of 12.7 PPG.

-- The Huskies were impressive running the football this season, ranking 14th in the nation. Behemoth RB Cameron Stingily led the team with 895 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, doing a majority of his damage down the stretch. QB Drew Hare had big shoes to fill for the departed Jordan Lynch, but he did admirably. He rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns to finish second on the team. Stingily was particularly impressive in the MAC title game, rolling up 116 rushing yards with two scores, while Hare tossed a pair of scores while running in another. The running game isn't the only place to find stars, as WR Da'Ron Brown broke free for 64 receptions, 1,002 yards and six trips to the end zone.

-- NIU has dropped two straight bowl games, including a 31-10 setback to Florida State in the 2012 Orange Bowl. In fact, the Huskies are 2-5 in their past seven bowl games overall. Meanwhile, Marshall rolls in with a three-game bowl winning streak, and they have won eight of their past nine bowl appearances, including 1-0 in bowl games in the Sunshine State.

-- The Thundering Herd have covered eight of their past 11 games against a team with a winning record, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts. And for what it's worth, the Herd has posted a 4-0-1 ATS mark in their past five appearances on Tuesdays.

-- The Huskies are just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games at a neutral site, although that lone cover came in the MAC title game against Bowling Green. The Huskies are also just 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games, and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 battles on grass. And, against Conference USA foes, the Huskies have managed to cover just once in their past five outings.

-- The 'under' has been the dominant trend for the Herd lately, cashing in five of their past six games in the month of December, as well as each of their past four neutral-site battles and each of their past four bowl appearances. In three games against bowl teams this season, the under cashed twice for the Herd. Overall this season the under is just 6-7 for Marshall, but 3-1 in the past four.

-- The 'under' has connected in five of the past six for NIU, and is an impressive 11-4 in their past 15 neutral-site games. The under is also 6-1 in their past seven bowl games, and 6-1 in their past seven games on a grass surface. The under is 3-2 in five games for NIU against bowl teams this season.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Navy vs. San Diego State**

-- The nightcap Tuesday has Navy squaring off with San Diego State in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. The Aztecs will be right at home playing on their home field, but the Midshipmen have appeared in the bowl game four times since its inception in 2005, and that includes a 35-14 loss to San Diego State back in 2010.

-- It will be interesting seeing if Navy's triple-option attack can solve the San Diego State defense which was tops in the Mountain West Conference by allowing just 20.1 points per game For Navy, they will be trying to deal the Aztecs their first loss of the season at Qualcomm Stadium after San Diego State posted a 6-0 record there this season.

-- While the Aztecs were 6-0 at Qualcomm Stadium this season, they were just 3-2-1 ATS. San Diego State's margin of victory at home this season was 19.8 points per game. Even more impressive might be the fact that the under cashed in each of those six victories.

-- San Diego State faced four bowl teams during the regular season, going just 1-3 SU. However, they were 3-1 ATS during those games with the under going 3-1.

-- For the Aztecs, it all starts with Donnell Pumphrey, who was tabbed as a Mountain West First-Team Performer. He posted 1,755 rushing yards with 19 touchdowns. On the other side of the football, SDSU has a sturdy rushing defense, allowing just 145.6 yards per game.

-- On defense for Navy, CBs Noah Copeland and Chris Swain. The duo do not figure to be terribly busy against the run-heavy Aztecs. However, LBs Jordan Drake and Daniel Gonzales totaled 158 stops, and they will be plenty busy trying to track down Pumphrey. Watch out for DE Will Anthony, too, as he racked up eight tackles for loss this season.

-- Navy's Reynolds posted 1,082 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns during the regular season, and he threw for 749 yards and five scores. One of those passing scores, and one of his running touchdowns, came in their rivalry game 10 days ago against Army. The Middies will certainly not have to worry about any layoff after having just played Dec. 13. Reynolds (ankle) is listed on the injury report, but he is probable and isn't expected to be in any doubt for the game.

-- The Aztecs have Mountain West Conference second-team CBs Damontae Kazee and J.J. Whitaker looking to force mistakes if and when Navy does actually pass. LB Calvin Munson will be very busy trying to corral Reynolds. Munson made 78 stops this season, with 10.5 going for losses. He also forced two fumbles while sacking the quarterback four times and picking off four passes. He is a jack-of-all-trades.

-- Navy has faced six bowl teams this season, and the Midshipmen went just 1-5 SU/ATS during those six contests while the under cashed in four of those six outings.

-- The Midshipmen have covered 18 of their past 23 games against Mountain West opponents, while covering seven of their past 10 games against teams with a winning overall mark. However, Navy is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games, and 2-5 in their past seven neutral-site affairs, including a non-cover against Army, and another non-cover in their regular season opener against Ohio State.

-- For the Aztecs, they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games on grass. They have also covered three in a row overall. As far as the total, the 'under' has been the dominant play for San Diego State. The under was a perfect 9-0 to start the season, and was an impressive 11-1 in 12 games this season. The under is 6-0 in their past six games against independents, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record. And in the past 21 games on a grass surface, San Diego has seen the under cover 16 times.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

2014-15 Bowl Betting Results

December 22, 2014

BOWL CONFERENCE STANDINGS

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)

ACC - -

American (AAC) 1-0 1-0

Big 10 - -

Big 12 - -

CUSA 0-1 0-1

Independent 0-1 0-1

Mid-American 1-1 1-1

Mountain West 2-2 2-2

Pac-12 1-0 1-0

SEC - -

Sun Belt 1-1 1-1


OVERALL GAME RESULTS

Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss

Favorite 3 3 3 3

Underdog 3 3 3 3

Over Under
3 3


2014-15 BOWL SCHEDULE - RESULTS

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS/Total

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Orleans Bowl Nevada vs Louisiana-Lafayette 1.5, 62.5 16-3 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 New Mexico Bowl Utah State vs Texas-El Paso 10, 45.5 21-6 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Las Vegas Bowl Utah vs Colorado State 3, 57 45-10 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 20 Idaho Potato Bowl Western Michigan vs Air Force 2.5, 59 38-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 20 Camellia Bowl South Alabama vs Bowling Green 3.5, 55 33-28 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 22 Miami Beach Bowl Brigham Young vs Memphis 1.5, 56 55-48 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Boca Raton Bowl Marshall vs Northern Illinois - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 23 Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs San Diego State - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Bahamas Bowl Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 24 Hawai'i Bowl Fresno State vs Rice - - -

Friday, Dec. 26 Heart of Dallas Bowl Illinois vs Louisiana Tech - - -

Friday, Dec. 26 Quick Lane Bowl Rutgers vs North Carolina - - -

Friday, Dec. 26 St. Petersburg Bowl North Carolina State vs UCF - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Independence Bowl Miami-Fla. vs South Carolina - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs Penn State - - -

Saturday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs Southern California - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs West Virginia - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Russell Athletic Bowl Oklahoma vs Clemson - - -

Monday, Dec. 29 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs Texas - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs Louisiana State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Belk Bowl Georgia vs Louisville - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 30 Foster Farms Bowl Maryland vs Stanford - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Peach Bowl Mississippi vs Texas Christian - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Fiesta Bowl Boise State vs Arizona - - -

Wednesday, Dec. 31 Orange Bowl Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Auburn vs Wisconsin - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Cotton Bowl Michigan State vs Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Citrus Bowl Missouri vs Minnesota - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl - National Semifinal Oregon vs Florida State - - -

Thursday, Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl - National Semifinal Alabama vs Ohio State - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs Pittsburgh - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Taxslayer Bowl Iowa vs Tennessee - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Alamo Bowl Kansas State vs UCLA - - -

Friday, Jan. 2 Cactus Bowl Washington vs Oklahoma State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 3 Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs Florida - - -

Sunday, Jan. 4 Godaddy Bowl Toledo vs Arkansas State - - -

Monday, Jan. 12 National Championship Game TBD vs TBD - - -
**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

My Bowl Record:

college bowl game record

*****......................................1 - 3

double play...............................1 - 0

triple play.................................3 - 0

blow out or upset.......................1 - 0

bowl game of the year................0 - 0


Rated Picks and Opinons

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

12/22/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

12/20/14 6-*4-*0 60.00% +*800 Detail

12/13/14 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals: 9-5-0 64.28% +1850

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Hawai'i Bowl, 12/24
Rice started season 0-3 with a loss to Old Dominion, lost its last game to La Tech 76-31; in between they won seven of eight games- they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine. Why is 6-7 Fresno State in a bowl? Bulldogs lost last five bowls, giving up average of 40.6 ppg, with last three losses by 23+ points- couple years ago, they lost this game 43-10 to SMU, but that was June Jones' homecoming. Rice is 6-5 in bowl games, splitting last four- Owls' last five bowls were all decided by 19+ points. Fresno is 4-1 this year in games with single digit spread; Rice is 6-2. Underdog covered this game four of last five years, with four of five staying under total.

Bahamas Bowl, 12/24
Western Kentucky's only bowl appearance was a 24-21 loss to Central Michigan in 2012 Motor City Bowl, as 6-point faves. Hilltoppers were 3-5 after a 59-10 loss at La Tech; they've won four in row since, handing Marshall its only loss 67-66- they scored 34+ points in four of their five losses- this figures to be high scoring. Chippewas are 3-2 as underdogs this year; they won five of last seven games, are 3-4 in bowls, with last four all decided by exactly 3 points; they won last two, 44-41ot/24-21. WKU is 3-6 vs spread this year in games with single digit spread; Chips are 3-3 in such games. This is first-ever Bahamas Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 24

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Bahamas Bowl betting preview: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
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Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-3.5, 68)

Game to be played at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

The inaugural Bahamas Bowl in Nassau pitting Central Michigan against Western Kentucky is the first FBS bowl game outside of either the United States or Canada since the 1937 Bacardi Bowl in Havana, Cuba. Ironically, each team’s last trip to a bowl game came when they faced each other in the 2012 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, where the Chippewas held off the Hilltoppers 24-21. The coincidences do not end there, as both schools were bowl-eligible last year but did not play in the postseason.

After serving one season under current Louisville coach Bobby Petrino at Western Kentucky, Jeff Brohm has turned the Hilltoppers into an offensive juggernaut in his first season at the helm. Western Kentucky ranks sixth in the country in scoring and total offense, helping the school notch its first-ever win over a ranked opponent in its last game – a 67-66 overtime triumph over then-undefeated No. 20 Marshall. The Hilltoppers closed the season with four straight victories, averaging 49.8 points and 530.8 yards during the winning streak.

The Chippewas counter with the top total defense, rush defense and pass defense in the Mid-American Conference, although that unit has been somewhat inconsistent. In handing eventual conference champion Northern Illinois its first home loss in 29 games and only setback inside the MAC on Oct. 11, Central Michigan held the league’s top rushing offense 142 yards below its season average. Two weeks earlier, Toledo’s 19th-ranked offense gutted the Chippewas for 543 yards and 42 points – both season highs against Central Michigan.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Western Kentucky opened as 3-point favorites, have been bet as high as -4 and now sit at -3.5. The total has risen two points, going from 66 to 68.

INJURY REPORT: Central Michigan - WR Eric Cooper (questionable Wednesday, suspension). Western Kentucky - LB Joel Iyiegbuniwe (questionable Wednesday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There will be a strong wind gusting towards the northern end zone at 18 miles per hour. It will also be overcast with a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 80's for the game.

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7-5, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Chippewas own the 16th-ranked total defense in FBS and were particularly good during their 5-2 finish to the regular season, giving up no more than 129 rushing yards in any game and surrendering more than 233 passing once over that stretch. "No doubt it's been the best defense, it's been the best defense we have had by far," fourth-year coach Dan Enos told the school’s website. Central Michigan does not lack for offensive playmakers, however, as leading receiver Titus Davis is the only player in FBS history with eight or more touchdown receptions in four seasons.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 6-6 ATS, 8-3-1 O/U): The Hilltoppers shattered 42 team and individual offensive records, many of which fell thanks to quarterback Brandon Doughty, who leads all FBS quarterbacks with 4,344 passing yards and 44 touchdowns. Doughty picked apart Marshall for 491 yards and a conference-record eight TDs, which allowed him to move into a four-way tie for 16th place in FBS history for the most passing scores in a single season. Western Kentucky also boasts a solid ground game led by Leon Allen, who ran for 650 of his 1,490 yards over the last three games – including a school-record 345-yard effort in a Nov. 15 win versus Army.

TRENDS:

* Central Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on grass.
* Western Kentucky is 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Central Michigan's last five games following a SU loss.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Western Kentucky's last seven games following a SU win.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-seven percent of wagers are backing the favored Hilltoppers at -3.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 24

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Hawai'i Bowl betting preview: Fresno State vs. Rice
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (-2.5, 59.5)

Game to be played at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawai'i

With a sub-.500 record and a bitter taste in its mouth from two years ago, Fresno State returns to the Hawaii Bowl when it faces Rice in Honolulu. The Bulldogs hope to enjoy their Christmas Eve a bit more than they did when they were demolished by SMU 43-10 in their first Hawaii Bowl appearance. "We are thrilled to be playing in the Hawaii Bowl against Rice," coach Tim DeRuyter said in a statement after the bowl matchups were announced. "Having been to the Hawaii Bowl just two years ago, our staff and players know that we are in for a fantastic week."

Both teams are coming off a disappointing performance their last time out, particularly the Owls. Rice enjoyed its best defensive effort of the season in a 31-13 triumph over UTEP before getting obliterated by Louisiana Tech 76-31 in its regular-season finale. The Owls surrendered 677 yards - 408 through the air - and were outgained 269-34 on the ground while allowing five TDs of at least 30 yards.

Fresno State fell behind 28-0 against Boise State in the Mountain West championship game before two late TDs made the final score a bit more respectable. The Bulldogs dominated the Broncos from a statistical standpoint but were doomed by three interceptions by Brian Burrell and a blocked field goal while the game still was close. "This is a gutty team with tremendous resolve," DeRuyter said after the 28-14 defeat. "We were down big in this game, but our kids didn't quit. I think we represent the Valley well and we plan on going out and winning a bowl game."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Rice opened as 1.5-point underdogs, but have been bet all the way to 2.5-point favorites. The total opened at 59 and has been bet up slightly to 59.5.

INJURY REPORT: Fresno State - RB Kurt Scoby (questionable Wednesday, concussion), RB Dontel James (questionable Wednesday, leg), DL Maurice Poyadue (out indefinitely, suspension), LB Michael Lazarus (out indefinitely, suspension), WR Myles Carr (out indefinitely, suspension), LB Xavier Ulutu (out indefinitely, suspension). Rice - WR Derek Brown (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), DL Stuart Mouchantaf (questionable Wednesday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There are thunderstorms expected in the forecast and a 75 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 12 mile per hour wind gusting across the field from east to west. Temperatures will be in the mid 70's.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (6-7, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bulldogs, the only team to earn a bowl berth with a sub-.500 record this season, are playing in the postseason for the 14th time in 16 years, although they have dropped five straight bowl games dating to the 2007 Humanitarian Bowl. Fresno State won the Mountain West's Western Division thanks in large part to its two best offensive players. Marteze Waller has rushed for 1,292 yards and 11 touchdowns, although he was held to 23 yards by Boise State, while Josh Harper led the Bulldogs with 86 catches for 1,072 yards.

ABOUT RICE (7-5, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Owls are heading to a bowl game for a third straight season for the first time in program history, although last year's 44-7 loss to Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl was a one-sided affair. "I know they are very proud to be the first team to earn a third straight bowl berth and they have the longest active bowl streak in Conference USA, but they are not going to be satisfied with a bid," said coach David Bailiff, whose team is 7-0 when holding its opponent to 23 points or fewer. Junior quarterback Driphus Jackson set career highs against Louisiana Tech for completions (25), attempts (40), yards (337), touchdowns (four) and interceptions (three).

TRENDS:

* Fresno State is 0-5 ATS in its last five Bowl games.
* Rice is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Fresno State's last six non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Rice's last six neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split, with 54 percent of wagers backing Rice at -2.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Bahamas Bowl

December 24, 2014


CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (7-5) vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (7-5)

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium - Nassau, Bahamas
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Western Kentucky -4, Total: 68.5

Western Kentucky attempts to win its first bowl game since 1963 when it squares off with Central Michigan on Wednesday afternoon.

The Chippewas had a rough start to the 2014 season with SU losses in three of their first five games (1-4 ATS) but were able to get things back on track against conference foes. They were 5-3 SU against MAC teams and won three of their final four contests despite committing 10 turnovers in that timeframe. CMU has been impressive in recent bowl visits while winning its past two contests back in 2009 and 2012 by an average of just 3.0 PPG.

Western Kentucky also had a very murky start to the year, as it was 3-5 (both SU and ATS) heading into the final month of the season before reeling off four straight wins to reach just its second bowl game since 1963. The Hilltoppers offense caught fire in those four games with 49.8 PPG, as they were 3-1 ATS and defeated their opponents by an average of 18.8 PPG. Their final win of the season was easily their most impressive, as they grabbed a victory against undefeated, 23.5-point favorite Marshall by a score of 67-66 in a game where the two programs combined for 1,446 yards of total offense.

This Christmas Eve contest is a rematch of the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl where Central Michigan went in as a 6-point underdog and managed a three-point victory (24-21). It was a clean game, as neither team committed a turnover, while the Chippewas outgained the Hilltoppers 393-327.

Trends show that Central Michigan is a perfect 8-0 ATS in non-home games after playing two straight conference games in the past three seasons, while Western Kentucky has gone 16-4 ATS (80%) after two or more consecutive ATS wins since 1992.

The only injury of note to keep an eye on for this game is to HB Thomas Rawls (leg) of the Chippewas who was hurt in his last contest, and is 'out' for Wednesday.

Central Michigan didn’t really excel in any part of its offensive game with 222.0 passing YPG and 158.7 rushing YPG, as it scored only 25.2 PPG. QB Cooper Rush (2,664 pass yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) threw at least one interception in each of his past six games, but was able to compile 239 passing YPG, as he twice threw for three touchdowns in that time. Over the course of the year, he successfully completed 64% of his passes for 7.9 YPA and surpassed 30 attempts five different times.

Losing a key part to the ground game will hurt CMU. HB Thomas Rawls (1,103 rush yards, 10 TD) struggled with injuries all season long, missing three games and carrying the ball only three times in two other instances. In his other seven performances, he averaged 154.7 YPG (5.3 YPC) and eclipsed 220 yards twice.

WR Titus Davis (843 rec yards, 9 TD) was the leading receiver for this team, as he managed 15.6 yards per catch and gained 100 yards in five of his nine games played.

While they weren’t too great on the offensive side of things, the Chippewas defense was solid in limiting opponents to 23.2 PPG (32nd in nation) behind just 119.8 rushing YPG (18th in FBS). Expect LB Justin Cherocci (107 tackles, 4 sacks) to be heavily involved in each play as the leader of this side of the ball for Central Michigan.

Western Kentucky won its games with one of the best passing offenses in the nation, as it gained 365.0 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while adding 160.3 rushing YPG and scoring 44.0 PPG (6th in nation).

QB Brandon Doughty (4,344 pass yards, 44 TD, 10 INT) continues to carry this program, and he had five games with at least four touchdown passes this season. He is also coming off his best performance of the year against Marshall as he threw eight touchdowns (and 2 INT) while gaining 491 yards on 34-of-50 passing (68%) in an overtime thriller.

HB Leon Allen (1,490 rush yards, 12 TD) was a workhorse, as he ran the ball 21.6 times per game while averaging 5.8 YPC. This includes 237 yards (7.2 YPC) and one touchdown against Marshall on Nov. 28. Overall he had six games where he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground and had one contest where he rumbled for an amazing 345 yards (10.5 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times against Army.

WR Taywon Taylor (739 rec yards, 7 TD) led the team in yards, as he gained a solid 16.8 yards per catch, while WR Jared Dangerfield (738 rec yards, 10 TD) was the volume receiver with a team-high 64 receptions, and had five scores over the final three games of the year.

Unfortunately, the Hilltoppers defense was not up to the task this season in allowing opponents put up 501.8 YPG of total offense (6th-worst in FBS) and 39.3 PPG (also 6th-worst in nation). LB Nick Holt (103 tackles, 7 sacks) and DB Brandon Leston (57 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) were a couple of the bright spots on this defense, and will really need to pick it up in order for this team to win.