The bum's nfl december trends/news/ stats/ all you need to know to wager the games!

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NFL

Thursday, December 18

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Titans at Jaguars
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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 40.5)

Quarterback situations are iffy for Tennessee and Jacksonville as the AFC South doormats prepare to meet in Florida on Thursday in a game that could help determine who gets the No. 1 draft choice. The Titans, losers of eight straight, will stick with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst after he finished the team's 16-11 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday. Rookie Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) remains sidelined while Jake Locker is on injured reserve after hurting his shoulder in the Jets game.

The Jaguars are also preparing for a possible change at quarterback as rookie starter Blake Bortles is questionable with a sprained foot. Chad Henne, who started the first two games of the season, would get the nod if Bortles cannot go. Bortles threw for a career-high 336 yards while Whitehurst had 233 in Tennessee's 16-14 win in the first meeting Oct. 12. The Titans have not won since and enter Week 16 with the second-best chance to draft first overall, one spot ahead of Jacksonville.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Jags as 3-point home faves and that line has not moved. The total opened at 41 and has dropped 40.5.

INJURY REPORT: Titans - TE Delanie Walker (Probable, knee), T Kamerion Wimbley (Questionable, hamstring), WR Kendall Wright (Questionable, hand). Jaguars - QB Blake Bortles (Probable, foot), DE Andre Branch (Doubtful, groin), RB Denard Robinson (I-R, foot).

POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+8.75) - Jaguars (+8.25) + home field (-3.0) = Jags -3.5

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-low-50s with wind blowing toward the south endzone at just two mph.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-12 SU, 3-10-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Tennessee has gone two straight games without an offensive touchdown as one of the league's most meager attacks has bottomed out. One consistent issue has been an inability to sustain drives at all - the Titans have lost the time-of-possession battle for seven straight games and are 31st in the league in that category overall (27:03), ahead of only fast-paced Philadelphia. Tennessee is last in third-down percentage (29) although it was a bit better against New York, converting 6-of-16.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-12 SU, 4-9-1 O/U): Regardless of who starts under center, they will likely face pressure that has made life difficult for Bortles and Henne this season. Jacksonville has given up 19 sacks over the last three weeks and a league-high 62 overall, which is one shy of the franchise record set in 2001. Bortles, who was sacked eight times in a 20-12 loss at Baltimore last weekend, was in a walking boot Monday but told reporters he expects to play.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.
* Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC South.

CONSENSUS: According the Consensus, the Jags are seeing 70 percent of bets.

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NFL

Thursday, December 18


Jaguars favored for first time in 46 weeks

The last time the Jacksonville Jaguars were a favorite heading into a game was Week 4 back in the 2012-13 season. That span of 45 weeks saw the Jags go 13-27-2 against the spread and 4-9-1 ATS this season.

Jacksonville is currently -3 against Tennessee Thursday.


Whitehurst the last Titans QB to win

The last time the Tennessee Titans won a game straight up, Charlie Whitehurst was at quarterback. The career backup was 1-3 straight up and 1-2-1 against the spread when starting for the Titans this season.

Whitehurst completed 60.1 percent of his passes while throwing for five touchdowns and two interceptions in those four starts.

Tennessee is currently 3-point road dogs against Jacksonville Thursday.

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Jaguars made rare favorites

December 17, 2014


TENNESSEE TITANS (2-12) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-12)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Jacksonville -3, Total: 40

Two division foes who have been extremely disappointing with 2-12 records, will clash on Thursday night when the Titans visit Jaguars.

Both AFC South teams will likely be picking in the top five of the NFL draft after a truly miserable 2014 campaign. Tennessee lost its eighth straight game (2-6 ATS) last week in a 16-11 home defeat to the Jets. Meanwhile Jacksonville fell to 1-6 SU in in its past seven games with a 20-12 loss in Baltimore, but was a 14-point road underdog which gave the club two ATS wins in the past three games.

Earlier in the year, the Titans picked up one of their two SU victories in a 16-14 win over the Jaguars as 4-point home favorites. Over the past three seasons, Tennessee leads this series 3-2 SU, but Jacksonville is 3-1-1 ATS in those games. The last two meetings played in Jacksonville in this head-to-head series have gone Under the total. In terms of betting trends for Thursday, in the past three seasons, the Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in home games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. However, the Titans are 0-7 ATS on the road after scoring 14 points or less in their previous game in that timeframe.

DE Andre Branch (groin) is doubtful for the Jaguars in this matchup, but starting QB Blake Bortles (ankle) has been upgraded to probable. Titans QB Jake Locker suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last game, and QB Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) is doubtful, meaning Charlie Whitehurst will start under center. RB/WR Dexter McCluster (knee) has also been ruled out, and top WR Kendall Wright, who has missed two straight games with a hand injury, is considered questionable to return in time for Thursday.

The Titans gave up a 1-yard rushing touchdown to Chris Ivory with just over three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to lose to the Jets 16-11 last week. Shoulder injuries to QBs Zach Mettenberger (1,412 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Jake Locker (993 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 5 TD, 7 INT) have left QB Charlie Whitehurst (967 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT) as the team’s lone healthy signal caller.

Whitehurst threw for 203 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions in relief duty against the Jets last week. The Jacksonville defense is allowing 243.0 passing yards per game (21st in NFL), so Whitehurst should be able to move the chains on Thursday night. If Whitehurst is playing Thursday then that could mean a big game for WR Nate Washington (38 rec, 629 yards, 2 TD). Washington had six catches for 102 yards on 10 targets against the Jets last week and is clearly somebody that Whitehurst has a comfort level with.

Tennessee will need to get some more production out of its running game, as its backfield rushed for just 72 yards against the Jets last week. Defensively, this team played pretty well against New York, allowing only 277 total yards and holding the Jets to 2-of-13 on third down conversions.

The Jaguars went into Baltimore and played the Ravens tough, but they ultimately left with yet another loss.

QB Blake Bortles (2,676 pass yards, 6.4 YPA, 10 TD, 17 INT) went 21-of-37 for 210 yards with zero touchdowns and a pick in the loss. Bortles has now thrown in an interception in 11 of the 12 games he’s played in this season. He will need to limit his mistakes going forward, but he could be in for a big game against a Tennessee defense that is allowing 35.0 PPG over the past four weeks.

With RB Denard Robinson (foot) out for the season, RB Toby Gerhart (265 rush yards, 1 TD) is taking his place, and actually ran the ball pretty effectively for Jacksonville last week. He carried the football 13 times for 54 yards, and also caught two passes for nine yards. Gerhart’s 4.2 yards per carry against Baltimore was his highest in a single game on the entire season. Jacksonville will use him to wear out the Titans’ defense with his bruising style of running.

Defensively, this team is a complete mess in all aspects of the game. The Jaguars are allowing 129.6 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) to go along with their 21st ranked passing defense (243 YPG allowed). Jacksonville has given up at least 20 points in seven straight weeks, and will need to hold teams to much fewer that 20, with how horribly they’ve played offensively. The Jaguars will try to capitalize on Tennessee's mistakes, as their opponent has nine multi-turnover games this year. However Jacksonville's offense has 2+ giveaways in eight different games in 2014.

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Chargers, 49ers clash in SF

December 18, 2014


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-6) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Francisco -2, Total: 41.5

The Chargers head to San Francisco on Saturday for a game that they absolutely must win in order to keep playoff hopes alive in the AFC.

San Diego lost 22-10 as 4-point home underdogs against the Broncos last week and San Francisco wasn't much better, falling 17-7 as 9.5-point road ‘dogs in Seattle. The Chargers have lost two straight (SU and ATS) and the 49ers have dropped three consecutive games SU and four straight ATS. This matchup will feature a pass-heavy San Diego team that still has a shot at making the playoffs going up against a San Francisco defense that ranks third in the league in passing defense.

The 49ers, meanwhile, will try to pound the rock against a Chargers defense that is allowing just 108.6 rushing yards per game. San Diego is 2-8 ATS after the first month of the season this year and 11-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a division rival since 1992. However, the team is 55-36 ATS in road games in the second half of the season, and 50-31 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in that time.

RB Frank Gore (concussion), RB Carlos Hyde (ankle), NT Glenn Dorsey (forearm) and LB Chris Borland (ankle) are among many players questionable for the 49ers, while WR Keenan Allen (ankle) and LB Donald Butler (elbow) are both doubtful for the Chargers, while teammates RB Ryan Mathews (ankle) and TE Ladarius Green (concussion) are both questionable.

The Chargers have dropped two straight contests and will now need to win a difficult matchup in San Francisco in order to stay alive in the playoff hunt. QB Philip Rivers (3,639 pass yards, 27 TD, 13 INT) struggled against the Broncos last week, throwing for 232 yards with a touchdown and two picks in the game. Rivers will need to be more careful with the football in this game, as he’s going up against a 49ers defense that is extremely tough to throw against.

When Rivers is dropping back, he’ll likely look to Antonio Gates (58 rec, 662 yards, 10 TD) often. Gates is Rivers’ security blanket and is coming off of a game in which he caught six passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. With WR Keenan Allen (77 rec, 783 yards, 4 TD) unlikely to play, WRs Malcom Floyd (45 rec, 777 yards, 5 TD) and Eddie Royal (48 rec, 589 yards, 6 TD) will try to fill this void at wideout.

With RB Ryan Mathews’ (330 yards, 3 TD) status in doubt for the second straight week, RBs Donald Brown (172 rush yards, 2.4 YPC, 0 TD) and Branden Oliver (458 rush yards, 3.4 YPC, 2 TD) will be relied on to carry the football against the 8th-ranked rushing defense in football. Oliver rushed for just 26 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos, but he did catch four passes for 44 yards.

The Chargers defense ranks amongst the top-15 in both passing and rushing, and will now go up against a 49ers offense that has scored just 23 points total over the past three weeks.

The 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention after their loss to the Seahawks last week, but this team does have pride and is not just going to roll over against the Chargers at home. San Francisco’s defense has allowed only 20.5 PPG over the past two weeks, but will need to get something positive out of the offense.

QB Colin Kaepernick (3,051 pass yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) has not had a multi-touchdown passing game since Week 6 of the season and has thrown for just one touchdown with four picks over the past three games. He is going to need to get himself going against this Chargers defense, as he now has to prove that he is the right guy to lead this team going forward.

RB Frank Gore (804 rush yards, 3 TD) rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks last week, but he suffered a concussion in the game. Gore is questionable to play on Saturday and if he does not, it’ll be a huge opportunity for backup RB Carlos Hyde (333 rush yards, 4 TD). Hyde is banged up as well, as he hurt his ankle against the Seahawks. Hyde has run the ball effectively this season (4.0 YPC), but if he can't go, then RB Alfonso Smith (4 carries, 6 yards), would be the main ball carrier.

WR Anquan Boldin (74 rec, 920 yards, 4 TD) is this team’s top receiver and will need to be more involved this week, as he has caught only nine passes for 95 yards over the past three games combined.

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THE CONTEST FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE HILTON CONTEST

The Super Contest formerly Hilton Hotel Sportsbook still runs the most DO prestigious s
ports handicapping contest in Las Vegas. Every week will post the top five selections in
the contest by number of handicappers. After week three we will also post the leaders selections

This weeks top five picks by number of handicappers.

#5 Cardinals +8 227 Handicappers
#4 Broncos -3 290 Handicappers
#3 Vikings +6 1/2 356 Handicappers
#2 Panthers +1 1/2 453 Handicappers
#1 Lions -6 1/2 513 Handicappers

The Browns -1 1/2 are the least favored team team in Sunday's contest
action with only 61 Handicappers using Cleveland.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 16

December 20, 2014


NFL PLAY AGAINST ATS TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 12-0-1 ATS (8.3 ppg) since October 30, 2011 when facing a team whose defense recorded 4-plus sacks in their last game.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Aaron Rodgers is 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 2008 after a game where he threw more than two passes and completed no more than 56% of his attempts.

NFL BIBLE ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS at home after road losses in each of their last two games.

NFL BIBLE OU TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 16-0 OU versus any team with more wins after a win at home.

NFL ATS SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that allowed fewer than 13 points last game and are more than five-point underdogs are 217-169-8 ATS. Active on Buffalo and Arizona.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Rams are 13-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since October 9, 2005 at home when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games and at least one of the last two games were against nondivisional opponents.

NFL O/U SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that have thrown for at least three TDs in back-toback games are 135-102-4 OU. Active on Dallas.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-10 OU (-11.7 ppg) since November 1, 2009 as a favorite of at least three points when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.

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Sunday's Game to Watch

December 20, 2014

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-4) at DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Dallas -3, Total: 56

Two of the league’s best teams clash on Sunday when the Colts put their four-game win streak on the line when they visit the Cowboys.

While Indianapolis secured its fourth straight SU victory (2-2 ATS) last week with a 17-10 win over Houston, Dallas picked up a statement victory with a 38-27 win as 3-point road underdogs against the Eagles. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (hand) is questionable for this game after undergoing hand surgery earlier in the week, but he says that he will play and contribute to the league’s third-best rushing attack.

But a bigger concern for Dallas is finding a way to hold Andrew Luck in check, as the club is allowing 249.6 passing yards per game (23rd in NFL) and Luck is throwing for 301.9 YPG himself. However, Colts top WR T.Y. Hilton (groin) is questionable for Sunday, giving himself a 50/50 chance of playing. Over the past three seasons, the Colts are 12-2 ATS after an ATS defeat, but they are also 15-6 ATS when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons. Dallas is, however, 32-16 ATS in home games after having won three out of its past four games since 1992.

In addition to Hilton, Indianapolis could be missing three offensive linemen in OT Gosder Cherilus (groin), G Joe Reitz (ankle) and G Hugh Thornton (knee), who are all listed as questionable. Joining Murray on the questionable list for the Cowboys are LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring), DT Josh Brent (calf), OT Doug Free (ankle) and G Zack Martin (ankle).

The Colts beat the Texans 17-10 last week, but the win was far from pretty. QB Andrew Luck (4,492 yards, 38 TD, 14 INT) threw for just 187 yards in the game with two touchdowns and a pick. He has thrown four interceptions over the past three weeks and will need to take much better care of the football going forward.

WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) had four catches for 50 yards before exiting the game with an injured groin. It would be a big loss for Indianapolis if he is unable to play against Dallas, but if Hilton does sit, WRs Reggie Wayne (59 rec, 665 yards, 2 TD) and Donte Moncrief (27 rec, 423 yards, 3 TD) will both need to step up and make plays for their quarterback. Moncrief has had two games with 100+ yards this season, showing that he is capable of playing at a high level with an increase in usage.

Defensively, Indianapolis is going to really need to play a good game. DeMarco Murray is capable of really shredding any team he’s up against, and if he plays, the Colts defensive front will have a long game ahead of them. They did, however, hold Texans star back Arian Foster to 3.8 YPC a week ago, and have held the past four opponents to 103 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC.

The Cowboys won a big game against the Eagles last week and will now look to give themselves some breathing room in the NFC East with a victory over the Colts. Defensively, this game is going to be really tough for Dallas, which has struggled to defend the pass this season, and now must find a way to stop one of the best quarterbacks in football. They Cowboys did intercept two Mark Sanchez passes last week though.

Offensively, they will really need RB DeMarco Murray (1,687 rush yards, 11 TD) to play in this game. Murray has been one of the most consistently dominant running backs in the league this year and has given this team the balance it has lacked in recent years.

QB Tony Romo (3,188 pass yards, 28 TD, 8 INT) threw for 265 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against the Eagles last week. He’s now tossed six touchdowns with zero interceptions over the past two games, and is really in a groove. WR Dez Bryant (79 rec, 1,148 yards, 13 TD) had six catches for 114 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles. He is nearly impossible to keep in check, and Tony Romo will certainly be looking his way often in this game.

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Vegas Line Moves - Week 16

December 19, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Two NFC North contenders on a collision course to decide the division title in Week 17 have seen their Week 16 road games move more than one point in their favor. The Green Bay Packers (10-4) and Detroit Lions (10-4) are tied atop the standings, and each of them is trying not to look ahead to their showdown at Lambeau Field in the regular-season finale. But both have very winnable matchups this week, and the public has certainly taken notice in bumping them up from the opening numbers.

The Lions visit a Chicago Bears team on Sunday that surprised many in benching struggling quarterback Jay Cutler late this week in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler has turned the ball over an NFL-high 24 times (18 interceptions and six fumbles lost), and many have been critical of his seven-year, $126 million contract with the Bears (5-9) due to his poor play since signing the extension. But some like Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, do not agree with the move.

“I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t like the move at all – I really don’t,” Avello said. “Has Clausen ever proven that he can be an NFL starter? I don’t think he has. If Clausen cannot prove that he is an NFL starting quarterback, what are the Bears trying to accomplish here?

“Are they trying to say, ‘Hey Cutler, you’re pretty bad, and we’re just looking for a chance just today to give you a cooling off period?’ Or they are saying to him, ‘You’re really not our future, and we may be looking to get rid of you.’ I mean, where are they going with this move?”

Avello added that he thinks the strength of Chicago’s opponent here has played a big role in the public fading the home team and supporting Detroit, which has gone from a 7-point road favorite up to -8.5 at The Wynn. The Lions have a lot to play for over the last two weeks while the Bears do not.

However, Avello also said bettors should expect a much better performance as Chicago head coach Marc Trestman attempts to save his job and prove Clausen can run his offensive system much like Josh McCown did successfully last year. Ironically, McCown parlayed that into a big contract and starting job with former head coach Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

“They are playing the Lions, and it’s a rivalry,” Avello said. “I would think at home, Chicago would have some motivation to play well here. Taking everything into consideration the way that the Chicago team’s been playing, I think the line should probably be more like Detroit (favored by) 4 points maybe on the road. This thing’s up to 8.5 now, so that’s 4.5 (points) right there.”

Meanwhile, a 21-13 loss by Green Bay last week on the road against the Buffalo Bills has actually made bettors back the Pack more for Sunday’s game at the Tampa Bay (2-12). The Packers opened as 10.5-point road favorites at The Wynn, and they are now up to -12 against the Bucs.

Avello said a lot of that has to do with Green Bay’s ability to bounce back from losses despite being a losing team on the road. Avello also said Tampa Bay’s inability to score much lately factors into the move, as the team is averaging just 15 points during a four-game losing streak.

“Green Bay hasn’t been the greatest of road teams, but after last week’s game, you’d think there would be a little bit of motivation to win because they’re also in that same hunt,” Avello said. “I think most of the line movement this week is based on the Green Bay game last week at Buffalo playing poorly.

“Obviously, (the Packers) score a lot of points, and Tampa Bay doesn’t. You look at Tampa Bay, most of their games, they’re scoring 14, 17. How do they stay with this team offensively? Or does their defense shut Green Bay down? I don’t think there’s any defense that shuts Green Bay down.”

LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK - WEEK 16 BETTING MOVES
Rotation Team Open Current Move
103 CHARGERS - - -
104 49ERS 2.5 1.5 -1
105 EAGLES 8.5 7.5 -1
106 REDSKINS - - -
107 VIKINGS - - -
108 DOLPHINS 6.5 6.5 0
109 PACKERS 10 12 -
110 BUCCANEERS - - -
111 LIONS 4.5 8 3.5
112 BEARS - - -
113 FALCONS - - -
114 SAINTS 6.5 6.5 0
115 PATRIOTS 10 10.5 0.5
116 JETS - - -
117 CHIEFS - - -
118 STEELERS 3 3 0
119 BROWNS - - -
120 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5
121 RAVENS 3.5 5.5 2
122 TEXANS - - -
123 GIANTS - - -
124 RAMS 5.5 6.5 1
125 BILLS 5.5 6.5 1
126 RAIDERS - - -
127 COLTS - - -
128 COWBOYS 1 3.5 2.5
129 SEAHAWKS 7.5 7.5 0
130 CARDINALS - - -
131 BRONCOS 3.5 3 -0.5
132 BENGALS - - -
Per Bettingmoves, Dec. 19 - 7:00 p.m. ET

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Total Talk - Week 16

December 19, 2014

Week 15 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an eye opening 13-3 record last weekend and that number could’ve been better too. Anybody who had the ‘over’ in the Oakland-Kansas City matchup received an early holiday gift thanks to the Raiders
punching in a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game. Through 15 weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 116-107-1.

Home/Away Tendencies

With only two weeks left in the season, there are some solid seasonal total trends to watch in Week 15.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 to the ‘over’ at home
Steelers host Chiefs

Tampa Bay and San Francisco both 5-1 to the ‘under’ at home
Buccaneers host Packers, 49ers host Chargers

Indianapolis is 5-1 to the ‘over’ on the road
Colts visit Cowboys

Detroit is 6-0 to the ‘under’ on the road
Lions visit Bears

Minnesota is 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Vikings visit Dolphins

Buffalo is 5-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Bills visit Raiders

30-Something

Even though the NFL is known as an offensive-first league these days, defensive struggles do occur and it’s pretty easy to figure out which games will be low-scoring based on the totals, this season in particular.

Through 15 weeks, there have been four games with totals that closed in the thirties and all four have gone ‘under’ the total.

Week 1 – Carolina 20 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 38)
Week 2 – St. Louis 19 at Tampa Bay 17 (Under 37)
Week 14 – Seattle 17 vs. San Francisco 7 (Under 38)
Week 15 – Jacksonville 21 vs. Tennessee 13 (Under 39)

Why do bring this angle up? Because we have two more games pending on Sunday.

Buffalo at Oakland
Seattle at Arizona

Divisional Games

Only six divisional matchups in Week 16, five of them set for Saturday and Sunday. Trends and thoughts provided below.

Philadelphia at Washington (Saturday): High total (50 ½) in this game that will have both teams playing on short rest. Fortunately, not much travel is involved. Since Chip Kelly took over the Eagles, they’ve scored 33, 24 and 37 points against the Redskins. The difference for this game is that QB Mark Sanchez is behind center for Philadelphia and he’s in a funk. RG3 will start for the ‘Skins and he’s just as inconsistent as Sanchez.

Detroit at Chicago: Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘over’ the total including this year’s matchup on Thanksgiving as the Lions earned a 34-17 win. The Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen at QB and the total has dropped from 46 to 44. Knowing how good an ‘under’ bet (6-0) Detroit has been on the road, I’m surprised it hasn’t fallen lower.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This is the highest total (56) on the board. In Week 1, Atlanta nipped New Orleans 37-34 in overtime at home and the ‘over’ (51) cashed. Prior to this outcome, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run. Based on the limited defensive units and their ability to throw the ball often, it’s either ‘over’ or pass for me in this matchup.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ is on a 9-1 run in this series and even though the Patriots have the more explosive offense, New York has done its fair share of scoring. In their last two games against New England, the Jets have scored 25 and 30 points. In what will likely be Rex Ryan’s final home game as coach of the Jets, part of me believes New York keeps this close. With that being said, they’ll have to score 20-plus just to keep up with New England.

Seattle at Arizona: (See Below)

Non-Conference Matchups

Betting the ‘over’ in AFC-NFC matchups last season was one of the best seasonal total trends I’ve ever seen. It posted a 49-15 (76.5%) record and the Super Bowl between Seattle and Denver also went ‘over’ the number.

AFC VS. NFC

AFC East vs. NFC North

Team CHI DET GB MIN

BUF Under Under Under Under
MIA Under Under Over -
NE Over Under Under Under
NYJ Over Under Over Over

AFC West vs. NFC West

Team ARI SF SEA STL

DEN Over Over Under Under
KC Under Under Over Under
OAK Under Under Over Over
SD Under - Over Over

AFC North vs. NFC South

Team ATL CAR NO TB

BAL Under Over Over Over
CIN Under Over Under Under
CLE Over - Over Under
PIT Under Over Over Over

AFC South vs. NFC East

Team DAL NYG PHI WAS

HOU Under Over Over Under
IND - Over Over Over
JAX Over Over Over Over
TEN Over Under Over Under

Based on the above table, the ‘over’ has gone 32-28 (53%) in the 60 non-conference matchups played this season, which tells you how mind boggling last season was.

Delving into the numbers further, there have been two good looks this season. Playing the ‘under’ (10-5) in AFC East-NFC North matchups and the ‘over’ (11-4) in AFC South-NFC East games.

We have four non-conference matchups left and they all play this weekend.

San Diego at San Francisco (Saturday)
Minnesota at Miami
Cleveland at Carolina
Indianapolis at Dallas

Three Straight?

Despite getting 32 points in the second-half, the Saints and Bears still went ‘under’ their closing total of 53 ½. With that result, the “Thursday Night Total” system has lost in its past two situations. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. Despite back-to-back losses, this particular angle has gone 9-4 (69%) mark this season and 24-6-1 (80%) dating back to last year.

For Week 16, the system calls for an ‘over’ play in the Giants-Rams matchup on Sunday since St. Louis hosted Arizona last Thursday.

This total opened at 45 ½ and has come down to 43. The St. Louis defense has given up a total of 12 points in its last three games but those efforts came against the Raiders, Redskins and Cardinals. While it’s too little-too late for New York, you can’t ignore the fact that the Giants have scored 28, 24, 36 and 24 points in their last four games.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘over’ has gone 32-15 in primetime games this season.

Seattle at Arizona: Low totals are always dangerous to bet but based on this year’s numbers (See 30-Something), the ‘under’ is the looks. Seattle defeated Arizona 19-3 at home in Week 12 and I can’t imagine the Cardinals scoring more in this spot, especially with Ryan Lindley at QB. Arizona’s defense is holding opponents to 15 PPG at home, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-2.

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three games and the offense appears to be content with running rather than passing. The Bengals have gone 4-2 in the second-half of the season but both losses came at home and they only scored 24 combined points in those setbacks. In night games this season, the Bengals have scored 17 and 3 points.

Fearless Predictions

Only three games went ‘over’ last weekend and leave it to me to be on the opposite side of one of them. Thanks Oakland! And not to hop on the bandwagon, but Johnny Football squashed the Teaser, which dropped the bankroll ($70) to negative numbers. With two weeks of regular season action left, we need to turn it around. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Merry Christmas!

Best Over: Giants-Rams 43

Best Under: Vikings-Dolphins 42

Best Team Total: Over 18 ½ New York Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Giants-Rams 34
Over Chiefs-Steelers 38 ½
Under Lions-Bears 53

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Injury report for weekend games

(All games Sunday unless otherwise noted)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (Saturday)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: LB Trent Cole (hand), QB Nick Foles (collarbone)

--Probable: LB Emmanuel Acho (groin), DT Beau Allen (shoulder), DE Brandon Bair (knee), TE Brent Celek (neck), DT Bennie Logan (pectoral), S Chris Maragos (hamstring), WR Jordan Matthews (knee), K Cody Parkey (right groin), RB Chris Polk (ankle)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: DE Jason Hatcher (knee), LB Gabe Miller (ankle)

--Doubtful: LB Keenan Robinson (knee)

--Questionable: T Trent Williams (shoulder)

--Probable: DE Chris Baker (chest, toe), DE Stephen Bowen (ankle), LB Will Compton (shoulder), RB Roy Helu (toe), C Kory Lichtensteiger (knee), TE Jordan Reed (not injury related), S Trenton Robinson (illness)


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Saturday night)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: WR Keenan Allen (collarbone, ankle), RB Ryan Mathews (ankle), P Mike Scifres (shoulder)

--Questionable: TE Ladarius Green (ankle, concussion), DT Corey Liuget (ankle)

--Probable: DT Ryan Carrethers (elbow), QB Philip Rivers (chest, back)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: LB Chris Borland (ankle), CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring), RB Carlos Hyde (ankle), WR Steve Johnson (knee)

--Questionable: LB Ahmad Brooks (thumb), WR Michael Crabtree (knee), T Anthony Davis (concussion), RB Frank Gore (concussion), S Raymond Ventrone (groin), LB Michael Wilhoite (hip)

--Probable: CB Perrish Cox (ankle), CB Chris Culliver (knee), DT Quinton Dial (knee), DE Tony Jerod-Eddie (foot), T Jonathan Martin (illness), C Marcus Martin (knee), LS Kyle Nelson (back), DE Justin Smith (back)


ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Questionable: G Jon Asamoah (back), WR Julio Jones (hip), S William Moore (foot)

--Probable: WR Harry Douglas (foot), WR Roddy White (knee), CB Josh Wilson (hand)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (neck), DE Akiem Hicks (ankle), S Jamarca Sanford (hamstring)


BALTIMORE RAVENS at HOUSTON TEXANS

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Questionable: DE Chris Canty (ankle)

--Probable: TE Owen Daniels (not injury related), S Will Hill (not injury related), WR Jacoby Jones (illness), CB Anthony Levine (ankle), G Kelechi Osemele (not injury related), RB Bernard Pierce (back), LB Daryl Smith (not injury related), LB Terrell Suggs (not injury related)

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: TE Garrett Graham (ankle), LB Mike Mohamed (concussion), QB Tom Savage (knee), G Xavier Su'a-Filo (back)

--Questionable: WR DeAndre Hopkins (ankle)

--Probable: T Tyson Clabo (foot, back), LB Brian Cushing (ankle), LB Akeem Dent (neck), RB Arian Foster (hip), CB Kareem Jackson (knee), WR Andre Johnson (concussion, not injury related), CB Johnathan Joseph (ankle), LB Whitney Mercilus (back), WR DeVier Posey (calf), LB Jeff Tarpinian (knee)


BUFFALO BILLS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

BUFFALO BILLS

--Questionable: TE Chris Gragg (knee)

--Probable: K Dan Carpenter (right groin), RB Anthony Dixon (chest), CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder), S Da'Norris Searcy (hamstring), RB CJ Spiller (shoulder), WR Marcus Thigpen (foot), S Duke Williams (concussion), DE Jarius Wynn (knee)

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: CB Tarell Brown (foot), WR Vincent Brown (groin), CB Chimdi Chekwa (hamstring), TE Brian Leonhardt (concussion), WR Denarius Moore (knee, ankle), T Menelik Watson (foot, ankle)

--Questionable: CB D.J. Hayden (back), DE C.J. Wilson (knee)

--Probable: QB Derek Carr (right thumb), CB T.J. Carrie (ankle)


CLEVELAND BROWNS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: S Tashaun Gipson (knee), CB K'Waun Williams (hamstring)

--Questionable: TE Gary Barnidge (rib), LB Karlos Dansby (knee), CB Joe Haden (shoulder), WR Marlon Moore (knee), CB Robert Nelson (hamstring), LB Jabaal Sheard (foot)

--Probable: WR Andrew Hawkins (illness)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Questionable: CB Carrington Byndom (hamstring), LB A.J. Klein (knee), G Amini Silatolu (knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (hand)

--Probable: LB Thomas Davis (knee), S Roman Harper (thigh), QB Cam Newton (back)


DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: DT Nick Fairley (knee)

--Questionable: CB Mohammed Seisay (hamstring)

--Probable: S Don Carey (ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), DE George Johnson (illness), DT C.J. Mosley (not injury related), LB Ashlee Palmer (quadriceps), G Rob Sims (illness)

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: S Chris Conte (back), K Robbie Gould (right quadriceps)

--Questionable: CB Tim Jennings (ankle), G Kyle Long (hip), DT Jay Ratliff (knee), DT Will Sutton (illness)

--Probable: CB Kyle Fuller (hand), LB Shea McClellin (ankle)


GREEN BAY PACKERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

GREEN BAY PACKERS

(Green Bay did not conduct a practice on Friday. The Friday practice report is an estimation.)

--Out: CB Davon House (shoulder)

--Questionable: T Bryan Bulaga (concussion)

--Probable: RB Eddie Lacy (eye), G T.J. Lang (ankle), LB Clay Matthews (biceps), LB Mike Neal (abdomen), LB Nick Perry (shoulder), G Josh Sitton (toe)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: S Major Wright (ribs)

--Questionable: LB Mason Foster (Achilles), CB Isaiah Frey (ankle), S Dashon Goldson (shin), DT Clinton McDonald (hamstring), T Kevin Pamphile (ankle, knee), WR Solomon Patton (foot)

--Probable: RB Bobby Rainey (wrist)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at DALLAS COWBOYS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: T Gosder Cherilus (groin), G Joe Reitz (ankle), G Hugh Thornton (knee)

--Questionable: CB Vontae Davis (groin), WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring)

--Probable: WR Joshua Cribbs (not injury related), LB Erik Walden (knee), WR Reggie Wayne (not injury related)

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: DT Josh Price-Brent (calf, not injury related), LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring)

--Doubtful: T Doug Free (ankle)

--Questionable: G Zack Martin (ankle), RB DeMarco Murray (hand)

--Probable: S Jeff Heath (thumb), LB Rolando McClain (knee), CB Tyler Patmon (knee, ankle), QB Tony Romo (back), DE George Selvie (thumb)


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Questionable: WR Dwayne Bowe (illness), LB Tamba Hali (knee)

--Probable: DE Allen Bailey (concussion), RB Jamaal Charles (knee, ankle), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), G Zach Fulton (toe), CB Phillip Gaines (concussion), DE Jaye Howard (illness, shoulder), LB Joshua Mauga (oblique), LB Joe Mays (knee), CB Christopher Owens (knee), CB Sean Smith (groin)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Doubtful: S Troy Polamalu (knee), CB Ivan Taylor (shoulder, forearm)

--Questionable: TE Matt Spaeth (elbow)

--Probable: CB William Gay (not injury related), T Marcus Gilbert (ankle), LB James Harrison (knee), DT Steve McLendon (not injury related), TE Heath Miller (not injury related), S Michael Mitchell (groin), C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle), QB Ben Roethlisberger (not injury related), WR Markus Wheaton (illness)


MINNESOTA VIKINGS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: LB Anthony Barr (knee), G Charlie Johnson (ankle)

--Doubtful: TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle, knee)

--Questionable: S Robert Blanton (ankle, knee)

--Probable: RB Matt Asiata (foot), DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), LB Chad Greenway (not injury related), WR Greg Jennings (hamstring), DT Linval Joseph (illness), LS Cullen Loeffler (illness), CB Xavier Rhodes (wrist), DE Brian Robison (ankle), S Andrew Sendejo (thumb)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: T Nate Garner (illness)

--Doubtful: G Dallas Thomas (foot), RB Daniel Thomas (knee)

--Questionable: LB Jelani Jenkins (foot), S Don Jones (shoulder), CB Jamar Taylor (shoulder)

--Probable: TE Charles Clay (hamstring), CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle), LB Jonathan Freeny (hamstring), LB Chris McCain (ankle), LB Koa Misi (hamstring, knee), LB Jordan Tripp (foot)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at NEW YORK JETS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Questionable: LS Danny Aiken (finger), CB Kyle Arrington (hamstring), RB LeGarrette Blount (shoulder), G Dan Connolly (knee), WR Julian Edelman (thigh, concussion), T Cameron Fleming (ankle), LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder), DE Chandler Jones (hip), WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder), DE Rob Ninkovich (heel), RB Shane Vereen (ankle), LB Chris White (ankle)

--Probable: QB Tom Brady (ankle)

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: S Rontez Miles (shin)

--Questionable: WR Saalim Hakim (quadriceps), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (shoulder), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (toe)

--Probable: S Antonio Allen (hand), G Willie Colon (knee), K Nick Folk (right hip), WR Percy Harvin (ankle), RB Chris Johnson (knee), C Nick Mangold (finger), S Calvin Pryor (shoulder)


NEW YORK GIANTS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Out: RB Rashad Jennings (ankle)

--Probable: LB Jameel McClain (knee)

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Probable: G Davin Joseph (not injury related), DE Chris Long (ankle), C Scott Wells (not injury related)


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS on Sunday night

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: T Russell Okung (chest)

--Doubtful: DE Demarcus Dobbs (ankle), C Max Unger (ankle, knee)

--Questionable: TE Tony Moeaki (shoulder)

--Probable: TE Cooper Helfet (ankle), RB Marshawn Lynch (back), WR Paul Richardson (hamstring), G J.R. Sweezy (ankle)

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: G Jonathan Cooper (wrist)

--Doubtful: QB Drew Stanton (knee)

--Questionable: WR Jaron Brown (toe)

--Probable: LB Lorenzo Alexander (knee), DE Calais Campbell (hip), G Paul Fanaika (ankle), WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee), LB Larry Foote (knee), S Tyrann Mathieu (thumb), T Jared Veldheer (ankle), RB Kerwynn Williams (knee)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Vikings (6-8) @ Dolphins (7-7)—Six of last eight Minnesota games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Vikings are 1-5 on road without Peterson, with only win in OT at Tampa- they’re 4-3 as road dogs this season. Miami was outscored 48-3 in second half of last two games, playoff chances are remote; after fading badly in last two weeks LY (lost 19-0/20-7 with chance to make playoffs) pressure on Miami coaches to deliver winning record with cloud of Jim Harbaugh hanging over their heads. Dolphins are 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with all three wins by 13+ points. Vikings allowed only four TDs, two FG on foes’ last 11 red zone drives. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-8 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Six of last nine Viking games, seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.

Packers (10-4) @ Buccaneers (2-12)— Pack is scoring 21.1 ppg on road, 41.1 at Lambeau. Tampa Bay hired Aaron Rodgers’ coach from Cal to be OC this year, but he had heart problem and never worked; now he’s off to be a head coach in CFL; Bucs’ offense suffered this year without a real OC. Packers are 9-0 on grass, 1-4 on carpet; they’re 1-2-1 as road favorite this year, 3-4 SU on road with two of three road wins by a FG- they allowed 20+ points in last five games. Bucs lost nine of last ten games, are 0-6 SU at home, 1-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 6-2-31-6-1-10 points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 1-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 10-11, 3-2 at home. Seven of last eight Buc games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 17-9 vs spread in game following last 26 losses.

Lions (10-4) @ Bears (5-9)—Clausen (1-9 as NFL starter) gets nod over Cutler for the dysfunctional Bears. Detroit won three in row, six of last eight games, but they’re 3-3 on road, 0-2 on grass, scoring 7-6 points in losses at Carolina/Arizona. Lions haven’t been negative in turnovers since Week 5; they’re +7 in last six games, with only four turnovers. Detroit is 6-10-1 in last 18 games as road favorites. Chicago just lost consecutive primetime home games; they’ve allowed 35.3 ppg in last three games, look like team that’s given up- they face divisional rival here that they’ve lost 10 of last 13 meetings with, but Lions lost five of last six visits here, so trap game for them with divisional showdown with Packers up next. Detroit (-7) spanked Bears 34-17 Thanksgiving Day, holding Chicago to 13 yards rushing (8 attempts). 11 of last 13 Lion games, four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total.

Falcons (5-9) @ Saints (6-8)— Saints are 2-5 as home favorites this year after being 18-3-1 in that role from 2011-13; NO lost last four home games, and they were favored by average of six points. Atlanta is 4-0 in divisional games, 1-9 vs everyone else; they’ve lost three of last four games overall, are 2-4 in true road games, winning at Tampa Bay, Carolina- four of their five road losses are by 10+ points. Falcons (+3) beat Saints 37-34 in season opener, averaging 10.1 ypa, so if they win here, Atlanta holds tie-breakers over NO in divisional race. Road team won last seven Saint games, after losing first seven. Atlanta is 4-0 when allowing less than 20 points, 1-9 when allowing more. Short week for NO as they face arch-rival with division lead on line. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total.

Patriots (11-3) @ Jets (2-12)—NE won 10 of last 11 games, covered six of last seven; they’ve won six of last seven games with Jets, but are 2-3 in last five visits here, with one win by more than a FG. Jets are 5-9-1 vs spread in game following their last 15 wins; they’ve scored 16 or less points in three of last four games overall, are 2-2 as home underdogs this year, losing home tilts by 8-7-14-20-3 points, with wins over Raiders/Steelers. Since 2003, Patriots are 17-9-2 as a divisional road favorite, 1-1 this year (compared to 15-16-1 as home favorites); Pats (-9.5) struggled to 27-25 win over Jets in Week 7, with Gang Green running ball for 218 yards and outgaining NE by 100 yards in game with no turnovers. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Patriot games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)—Pitt wins AFC North by closing with pair of home wins; underdogs covered five of its six home games this year, with Steelers 1-3 as home faves, winning at Heinz by 3-7-17-20 points, with odd losses to Bucs/Saints. Chiefs snapped 3-game skid by thrashing Oakland last week; they’re 4-3 on road this year, with last five road games all decided by 5 or less points- they’re 5-2 as underdogs. Steelers won three of last four games with Chiefs, all decided by 4 or less points; KC lost its last four visits here, losing by 6-6-38-3 points- their last win in Steel City was in 1986. Pittsburgh gained 7+ ypa in six of its last seven games. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 8-13, 5-7 at home. Six of last eight Pittsburgh games went over total.

Browns (7-7) @ Panthers (5-8-1)—If Falcons/Panthers win this week, they play in Georgia Dome next week for division title; Carolina is likely to still have Anderson (2-0 as starter this year) at QB with Newton’s back mending. Panthers won first two games, last two games but went 1-8-1 in between; they’ve run ball for 190 ypg the last three weeks, which takes pressure off defense. Cleveland lost last three games, allowing 27 ppg; Manziel was terrible in his starting debut last week, but defense allowed 244 rushing yards and JFF doesn’t play defense. AFC North teams are 12-2-1 vs NFC South this year and Steelers lost both games. Panthers won three of four series games, winning 20-12 in only meeting played here. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 8-3. Nine of last ten Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Ravens (9-5) @ Texans (7-7)—Former Houston coach Kubiak returns to Reliant as the OC of a team headed to playoffs. Texans are 3-3 at home and not totally out of it yet, but they’re down to #4 QB Keenum; he was on Rams' practice squad six days ago. Texans are 2-4 as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, losing three of last four at Reliant. Baltimore won four of last five games, outscoring last two opponents 31-3 in second half; Ravens are 4-3 SU on road, 2-2 as road favorites, winning by 2-31-7-15 points. Ravens won seven of eight series games, winning 30-9 in Baltimore LY- they had punt return TD and defensive score in game, but lost here 43-13 in ’12, their only loss in four visits. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC south underdogs are 9-11, 3-5 at home. Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.

Giants (5-9) @ Rams (6-8)—St Louis hasn’t allowed a TD in any of last three games (36 drives) but limited nature of its offense with QB Hill makes them dicey proposition when laying more than FG. Rams won three of last four home games, beating Seattle, Denver; they’re 2-2 as favorites, 1-2 at home (5-5 as HF under Fisher). Giants scored 60 points in winning last two games after losing previous seven, as explosive WR Beckham has revitalized offense; Jersey had double digit halftime leads in three of last four games. They were lucky last week when Griffin fumbled just before crossing goal line in air, then recovered it OB in end zone, or they would’ve been down 17-7 at half. Giants won last five series games, last four by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2006. Big Blue hasn’t been to St Louis since ’06; they won 26-21/41-13 in last two visits to Arch.

Bills (8-6) @ Raiders (2-12)—Huge trap game for Buffalo after upsetting Packers at home last week, despite not scoring offensive TD (had punt return TD); Bills lost last seven visits to Oakland, with last win here in 1966- they lost last three visits here, in series where home side won last four games, with three decided by 3 or less points. Buffalo won three of last four games, covering all four; they’re 3-2 as favorites this year, 3-3 SU on road, despite being underdog in all six games- they lost three of four games on grass. Raiders beat Chiefs/49ers in last two home games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games- five of their last six losses are by 10+ points. AFC West non-divisional dogs are 10-6 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Last six Buffalo games stayed under total; three of last four Oakland games went over.

Colts (10-4) @ Cowboys (10-4)—Visiting team covered last seven Dallas games. Cowboy RB Murray has broken hand, unlikely to play (well); Pokes won four of last five games, scoring 31+ points in all four wins- they had 10 TDs on last 21 drives in last two games. Dallas continues to be shaky home favorite; they’re 1-4 this year, 7-24 under Garrett, and lost last three home games SU, losing to Giants-Redskins-Arizona. Indy clinched AFC South, needs Patriot or Denver loss to have shot at first round bye Dallas is 9-6 in series, winning last two by 7-3 points; they lost five of last seven visits here, with last win in ’96. Colts allowed three defensive TDs in last two games, sneaking past Browns/Texans. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; three of last four Indy games stayed under. Interesting game, but human nature says Colts clinching division hurts their effort here.

Seahawks (10-4) @ Cardinals (11-3)—Ten weeks ago, Ryan Lindley was out of the NFL; how he is starting at QB for the NFC’s #1 seed as they try to hang onto their NFC West lead. Arizona is 7-0 at home this year, allowing total of 34 points in last three home games- they lost 19-3 (+7) in Seattle four weeks ago, in game where neither team gained 300 yards but Seahawks had 18-yard advantage in field position. Seattle won its last four games (3-0-1 vs spread), allowing 27 points (three TDs on 38 drives); they’re 4-3 on road, but won last two away games, at Philly/San Francisco- they won six of last nine series games but lost six of last eight visits to desert. Arizona is 4-2 as an underdog this year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four Seattle games, seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.

Broncos (11-3) @ Bengals (9-4-1)—Denver clinched its division but is still playing for first round bye, #1 seed in AFC; Broncos won last four games, winning at KC/SD, while allowing only three TDs on 22 drives in those two games. Broncos won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they’ve won five of last seven visits here, but they’re 1-3 on artificial turf this season, with only win at the Jets- they’re 4-8 vs spread on carpet in Manning era. Cincy won four of its last five games; they’re still fighting for AFC North title, but they lost last two home games, to Browns/Steelers. Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-divisional home games; they’re 10-4-1 in last fifteen games as a home underdog. Four of last five Denver games, five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 21

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Sunday Night Football: Seahawks at Cardinals
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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5, 36.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have wrapped up a postseason berth and can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs when they host the surging Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. Although the Cardinals hold a one-game lead over Seattle atop the NFC West, the Seahawks can take control of the division race and move into the mix for the No. 1 overall seed with a victory. Seattle beat Arizona 19-3 on Nov. 23 to start its four-game winning streak.

The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback after Drew Stanton was injured in last week's 12-6 win at St. Louis, leaving Ryan Lindley to make the start against the reigning Super Bowl champions. "Just be himself,” Arizona coach Bruce Arians said of Lindley. “Just take the game plan and execute it. Throw it accurately and don’t try to be a hero and force things. But, don’t play scared, play smart.” That might be easier said than done again Seattle, which has permitted only 27 points over its last four games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Cardinals as 7.5-point home dogs. In some instances that moved to +8, but had been bet back to +7.5. The total opened at 38 and is down to 36.5.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - TE Cooper Helfet (Probable, ankle), WR Paul Richardson (Probable, hamstring), Tony Moeaki (Questionable, shoulder). Cardinals - S Tyrann Mathieu (Probable, thumb), G Paul Fanaika (Probable, ankle), LB Larry Foote (Probable, knee), WR John Brown (Questionable, toe), G Jonathan Cooper (Out, wrist).

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-6.0) - Cardinals (-4.5) + home field (3.0) = Cardinals -1.5

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): The blueprint from last season's Super Bowl championship is starting to look eerily similar for Seattle, which ranks first in total yards (272.4) and passing yards (184.3) allowed and has been especially suffocating over the four-game run. "The hungrier team's gonna win," middle linebacker Bobby Wagner said. "And that tends to be us. We're hungry." Running back Marshawn Lynch, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and at least 10 touchdowns in each of the past four seasons, was limited to 39 yards on 15 carries in last month's meeting versus Arizona, but Russell Wilson overcame seven sacks to throw for 211 yards and a TD to go with 73 yards rushing.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS, 4-9-1 O/U): Arizona managed only 204 total yards against the Seahawks last month and will be in a tough spot with Lindley, who enters his fifth NFL start - and first since 2012 - with career numbers of zero touchdowns and seven interceptions. "Ryan is prepared," Stanton said. “Everyone wants to look at his numbers and they aren’t glamorous, but there are a lot of guys, myself included, that went in there and didn’t have success at a young age." Kerwynn Williams has provided a lift by rushing for 175 yards in two games since Andre Ellington went down with a hip injury but the offense continues to struggle, averaging 12.8 points over the last five games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Arizona.
* Seahawks are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December.
* Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 8-0 in Seahawks last eight games in December.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 54 percent of bettors are backing the Cardinals.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 21


Cold, windy conditions at Soldier Field Sunday

Weather forecasts for Sunday in Chicago are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with wind blowing toward the north end zone at around 12 mph as the Bears host the Detroit Lions Sunday at Solider Field.

The Bears are presently 8-point home underdogs and the total is 44.


Under bettors feasting on games with sub-40 totals

Sunday of the Week 16 NFL schedule sees another game - the second of the week (Tennessee at Jacksonville) - with a total in the 30s, which has been a rare occurrence this season. But sub-40 totals have equaled cashed Under tickets for bettors as games with those low numbers have posted an Over/Under record of 0-4.


Edelman to miss game versus Jets Sunday

According to reports, New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman did not travel with the team to New York on Saturday and will not play versus the Jets due to a concussion.

Edelman played all 60 minutes in last week's win over the Miami Dolphins but was limited in practice all week.

The 28-year-old leads the team with 92 receptions and is second with 972 yards. He's also tallied four touchdowns this season.

Presently, the Patriots are 10.5-point favorites.


Falcons optimistic WR Julio Jones will play vs. Saints

The Atlanta Falcons are feeling optimistic that star receiver Julio Jones will play in today's big game against the New Orleans Saints, according to NFL Network's Albert Breer.

Jones is nursing an injured hip which caused him to miss last week's game. He will test it out pregame to be sure. Breer also says Jones' hip is in better shape than last week.

The Falcons are currently 6.5-point favorites with a total of 56.


Panthers' Cam Newton cleared to start vs. Browns

Cam Newton will start for the Panthers on Sunday. Just two weeks after walking away from a massive car accident in Charlotte and sustaining a pair of transverse process fractures in his back, the Pro Bowl quarterback will return to the field against the Browns in a make-or-break game at Bank of America Stadium, NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday, per team sources.


Colts WR T.Y. Hilton "50-50" for game vs. Cowboys

At some point before the Colts take the field Sunday afternoon against the Dallas Cowboys, receiver T.Y. Hilton and coach Chuck Pagano will hash out whether Hilton should play in spite of a left hamstring strain. That's about the only thing that was clear after Hilton missed a third straight day of practice on Friday, but was officially listed as questionable on the team's final injury report.


Cowboys RB Murray expected to play

The Dallas Cowboys expect running back DeMarco Murray to play Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, despite a broken left hand, according to ESPN.

Murray was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report. His playing status is considered a game-time decision.

Murray was medically cleared to play during the week. The team will make a final decision after the hand is tested during pregame warmups.

The 10-4 Cowboys are batting for the NFC East title with the Philadelphia Eagles. Murray leads the NFL with 1,687 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns


Peyton Manning questionable for MNF, line stays puy

Peyton Manning (thigh) is officially listed as questionable the Broncos' Monday Night Football clash with the Cincinnati Bengals, but that's not having much of an effect at one book.

Sportsbook.ag tweeted Saturday that, despite the future Hall of Famer's uncertain status, the Broncos -3.5 line will not be moving in Cincinnati's direction due to the belief he will play regardless.

The book currently has the total sitting at 47.5 for the primetime showdown.

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Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 16 line moves

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins - Open: -7, Move: -6

The Dolphins are clinging to their playoff hopes like grim death after dropping three-straight games. They'll try to right the ship at home versus the Minnesota Vikings Sunday but, as John Lester tells, the Vikes have been a solid team of late and bettors have taken note.

"We’ve gradually moved down from our opener of -7," Lester tells Covers. "The sharps won with Minnesota last week so they, and some of the public, are on the Vikings again. This team has been quite competitive going back to mid October."


Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears - Open: +7, Move: +9, Move: +8.5

These two NFC North division rivals are polar opposites as the Lions are playing for a potential division crown with a victory coupled with a Packers loss at Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Chicago's season has spiraled out of control, culminating with the benching of their quarterback, Jay Cutler, who makes way for Jimmy Clausen.

"Once we found out Cutler wasn’t starting the spread jumped two points to +9," notes Lester. "We got a little bit of buyback on the Bears after that and dropped a point. I’m assuming this will creep toward double digits as kickoff approaches."


Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Open: +10, Move: +12

Speaking of those Packers, they'll be looking for a big rebound performance at the Bucs Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and Co. did not look good in last week's 21-13 defeat at the Buffalo Bills. They've not been kind to their backers on the road of late, dropping their last three road games against the spread, but bettors expect a big rebound in sunny Florida.

"Everyone is expecting a bounceback effort from Green Bay so we’ve moved up two points from the +10 open," says Lester. "As more of the public gets involved on Sunday, I expect we’ll eventually move to +13. If it reaches two touchdowns, which I doubt it will, wiseguys will be tempted to get some of the home dog."


Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders - Open: +5.5, Move: +7

If the Bills have any hope of a trip to the postseason, they'll have to do it away from home. They've dropped two-straight road games, but are coming off a solid performance and big win against the Packers one week ago. The Raiders have little to play for, save for the development of quarterback Derek Carr, who's put together a decent rookie season which has gotten him in the Raiders' record book with 2,898 passing yards and 18 touchdowns - both team records.

"Somewhat balanced sharp action on this one so the public has had most of the influence on the move," says Lester. "I don’t expect this will close any higher, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we are closer to the opener by gametime."


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals - Open: +7.5, Move: +9, Move: +7

The Cards can clinch home-field advantage with a victory of the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. They'll have to do it with third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, however. Lindley gets the call following Drew Stanton's injury last week. The Cards have a one-game lead over the Seahawks, but the latter can take control of the division with a win having beaten the Cardinals 19-3 on Nov. 23.

"This one got as high as +9 earlier in the week and then it’s been bouncing around between +7 and +8 the last few days," Lester said. "I think a touchdown is a good number for this matchup, and I do think the Cards can keep it close despite having Lindley in there. Bettors haven’t been afraid to play under the low total with two fantastic defenses on tap."

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SNF - Seahawks at Cardinals

December 20, 2014


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-4) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (11-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line Seattle -7.5, Total: 36

The Seahawks will be going for their fifth straight victory and the NFC West division lead when they visit the Cardinals on Sunday night.

Seattle has allowed just 27 points during its four-game win streak (SU and ATS), which included a 17-7 win as a 9.5-point home favorite over the 49ers last week. Arizona has allowed just 20 points during a two-game win surge (SU and ATS) that included a 12-6 victory as a 6-point road underdog in St. Louis last Thursday.

These teams met in Seattle four weeks ago and the home team won 19-3 as a 7-point favorite. Should the Seahawks pull off the season sweep this Sunday, they will take over the top spot in the division. Although they are 3-2 (SU and ATS) against the Cardinals over the past three seasons, Arizona has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Seattle.

Third-string QB Ryan Lindley will start for the Cardinals in this game, and will face the top-ranked defense in football. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons, and are also 6-0 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their past eight games over the past three seasons. However, Arizona is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better this season, and 11-2 ATS after having won four or five of its past six games over the past two seasons.

Seattle's injury list is pretty thin, but both C Max Unger (knee) and OT Russell Okung (lung) are doubtful, while TE Cooper Helfet (ankle) is questionable. For the Cardinals, WR John Brown (toe), S Tyrann Mathieu (thumb) and G Paul Fanaika (ankle) are all questionable, while DE Ed Stinson (toe) landed on IR earlier in the week.

The Seahawks have been extremely hot as of late and their defense has been the main reason for that. Over the past four weeks, Seattle has allowed just 6.8 PPG, and they are amongst the top-five in the NFL in both passing and rushing defense. This team is more than happy grinding games out, and it is able to do so with a defense that does not allow a lot of points. It also helps to have the league’s top-ranked rushing offense (169 YPG).

RB Marshawn Lynch (1,133 rush yards, 10 TD) ran for 91 yards and a touchdown in a win over the 49ers last week, and has now galloped for at least 85 yards in five of the past six games. But he could struggle to run against an Arizona defense that is allowing only 90.4 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL).

QB Russell Wilson (2,897 pass yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) is the guy that is most likely to do the damage against this defense, as Arizona is allowing 259.6 passing yards per game (29th in NFL), and Wilson is a nightmare to defend with his ability to throw when he is out of the pocket. Wilson will just need to take care of the football, as Arizona will have a hard time moving the ball with its depleted offense.

The Cardinals continue to win games despite suffering injuries to their most important positions. QB Ryan Lindley (0 TD, 7 INT in career) will now be the signal caller for this team and he is not the type of guy that a coach should feel comfortable starting. That is especially the case for a team that is heading to the playoffs and could have home-field advantage throughout. Lindley’s job now will be to take care of the football and manage games because his defense will do its part in keeping games close. In last week's game in St. Louis, he completed only 4-of-10 passes for 30 yards and 0 TD, but also threw zero interceptions.

The tough part for this offense is that it is also extremely weak at the running back position with top RB Andre Ellington (1,055 total yards, 5 total TD) on IR with a hip injury. RB Kerwynn Williams is the team’s new starting running back and he has now rushed for 175 yards in just two games. Williams has some good burst, but it will be extremely tough for him to find any room to run against this relentless Seahawks defense. If the Cardinals are going to win this game, they’ll need to shut down Russell Wilson.

Arizona’s defense is excellent at stopping the run, but they have really struggled to slow down opposing quarterbacks. The only chance of winning this game is if it’s a defensive slugfest.