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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 27 - Monday, December 1)

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  • #16
    Where the action is: Sunday's biggest Week 13 NFL line moves

    Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans - Open: -7, Move: -6, Move: -7

    The Houston Texans will be trying to keep pace in the AFC South and face as near a "must win" as you can get. They're two games back in the division and the Wild Card but face a Titans team that is mired in a five-game losing skid.

    "We opened the Teans as 7-point faves at the start of the week, and took some sharp action on the Titans as 7-point underdogs that forced us to go to Texans -6," Stewart tells Covers. "On Thursday we started to see the public money come in on the home favorite Texans forcing us back to Texans -7 where we currently sit with 59 percent of the action on the Texans to cover."


    San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens - Open: -5.5, Move: -6

    These two AFC squads will be jockeying for playoff positioning at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore Sunday. Heading into this one, the Chargers hold the final Wild Card spot over the Ravens based on winning percentage in conference games.

    "We opened the Ravens as 5.5-point home faves," Stewart says. "We have seen good two-way action on this game but took some sharp action on the Ravens moving us to Ravens -6 where we currently sit with 57 percent of the action on the Ravens to cover."


    Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons - Open: +1.5, Move: +2, Move: +2.5

    The Cardinals are in the driver's seat in the NFC West and will look to strengthen their grasp in Atlanta Sunday. Their six game SU and ATS winning streak came a halt at Seattle in Week 12, so a strong showing is vital for the Cards.

    "The Falcons ar 4-7 and in first place in the NFC South hosting the first-place Cardinals who are coming off a tough loss in Seattle," Stewart said. "We opened the Cards as 1.5-point favs on the road. We have been seeing nothing but action on the Cardinals moving them to -2 then eventually -2.5 where we are currently sitting. I could see us going got Cards -3 at some point as we 75 percent of the Cardinals to cover."


    New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers - Open: -3

    The centerpiece of the Sunday schedule could certainly be a Super Bowl preview with the way the Patriots and Packers are playing. The Pats head in riding a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and the Pack are enjoying a three-game streak (2-1 ATS) but have put up W's in seven of eight. Something has to give Sunday.

    "Big game here as this could be a preview of the Super Bowl where we have this matchup as a +400 favorite for our possible Super Bowl matchup future," Stewart points out. "We opened the Packers as 3-point favorites at home but have seen nothing but action come in on the Patriots as 3-point underdogs. We are reluctant to move off that number as we believe that we will start to see Packer action come in as we get closer to game time. As we sit right now we have 76 percent of the action on the Patriots to cover the 3-point spread."


    Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: +1, Move: +2, Move: +1.5

    The Sunday nighter showcases an AFC West rivalry with the Broncos and Chiefs meeting up at Arrowhead. The Broncos hold a one-game lead over the Chiefs and have won five straight meetings between the two (3-2 ATS).

    "We opened the Broncos as 1-point road faves in Arrowhead and have seen nothing but Broncos action moving us to 1.5 and eventually 2," Stewart said. "We did take a few sharp bets that we respect so we went back to Broncos -1.5 where we currently sit with 81 percent of the action on the Broncos to cover. "

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    • #17
      Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

      Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

      6) Patriots, +3-- Not often you get points with red-hot Brady.

      T4) Bills, -2.5-- Buffalo back at home on short week after blizzard.
      T4) Bengals, -3.5-- AFC North is 10-1-1 vs NFC South this season.

      3) Ravens, -5.5-- Baltimore is 24-10 as non-divisional home favorite.

      2) Giants, -2.5-- Lot of faith in team on six-game losing streak.

      1) Cardinals, -2.5-- Atlanta is 0-7 against teams outside its division.

      Season record of six most popular picks each week: 41-31

      2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

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      • #18
        NFL

        Sunday, November 30



        Frigid temperatures in Minnesota Sunday

        Temperatures could be as low as 12 degrees when the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers square off at TCF Bank Stadium Sunday. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy before making way for clear conditions later on during the game.

        Wind could have an impact as well as gusts are expected of up to 16 mph blowing toward the east endzone.

        With kickoff just hours away, the Vikings are 2.5-point home favorites and the total is 42.5.

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        • #19
          NFL

          Sunday, November 30



          'Zona-Atlanta game has seen plenty of line movement

          It may seem shocking to some, Sunday's game between Arizona and Atlanta is a battle of division leaders and the line has seen more movement than most this week.

          The 9-2 (8-3 ATS) Cardinals opened as 1-point road dogs versus the 4-7 (4-7 ATS) , but the line quickly jumped to a pick'em when the line opened, then jumped another two points the next day to sit at Cardinals -2.

          The Cardinals were bet as high as -2.5, before being bet back down to Cardinals -1.5. With plenty of line movement make sure you take a look at the complete line history before placing your wagers Sunday.


          Chargers look to end ATS skid

          San Diego backers are hoping this is finally the week where the Chargers halt their skid against the spread, but it won't be easy with a road date in Baltimore.

          The Chargers have failed to cover in six straight games and it feels like a different season when they were the best bet in the NFL at 5-0 ATS.

          San Diego is currently a 6.5-point road dog against the Ravens, who are 6-5 ATS this season, but 4-1 ATS at home.


          Giants the most popular pick

          With Sunday's batch of early games drawing near, it's the New York Giants that are the most popular pick among bettors.

          At the time of writing, the Giants - who are -2.5 at the Jacksonville Jaguars - were being backed by 75.44 percent of bettors. That put them just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 3.5-point favorites at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are being backed by 74.45 percent.

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          • #20
            NFL

            Monday, December 1


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            Monday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Jets
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            Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+7, 42)

            Geno Smith will step out of the revolving door to start at quarterback as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Monday night. Smith, who has just one win in seven starts on the season, got the call from an apparent lame-duck coach Rex Ryan after Michael Vick struggled in another ugly performance for the Jets last week. Neither quarterback has made much of a difference for the Jets, who are ranked last in the league in passing.


            Miami is trying to bounce back from a painful loss at Denver a week ago when it blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins have little wiggle room in their playoff hunt that has basically come down to a quest for a wild card berth after losing touch in the division race to New England. The visiting team has won the past four games in the series.

            TV:
            8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

            LINE HISTORY:
            The Dolphins opened anywhere from -4.5 to -6 and are currently -7. The total opened 41.5 and is up a half-point.

            INJURY REPORT:
            Dolphins - WR Mike Wallace (Probable, leg), CB Cortland Finnegan (Questionable, neck), TE Charles Clay (Questionable, leg), CB Jamar Taylor (Out, shoulder). Jets - TE Jace Amaro (Doubtful, concussion), DL Muhammad Wilkerson (Doubtful, toe).

            WEATHER:
            Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 6 mph.

            POWER RANKINGS:
            Dolphins (-5.25) - Jets (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5

            ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U):
            Although Miami is actually in 10th place in the AFC standings, it is just one game behind five teams battling for one of two wild card spots. Ryan Tannehill is having a fine sophomore season with 20 touchdown passes and he's second on the team with 276 yards rushing. Mike Wallace has caught a touchdown pass in his last three games against the Jets but he is dealing with a calf injury and has been outplayed lately by rookie Jarvis Landry, who leads the team with 49 receptions.

            ABOUT THE JETS (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U):
            Ryan has been scratching his head trying to figure out who should start at quarterback and he's back to Smith, who went 10-for-12 in relief of Vick last week in a 38-3 loss against Buffalo. Smith lost his spot as starter a few weeks ago after throwing three interceptions on three straight possessions in a 43-23 loss to the Bills. New York will most likely be without rookie tight end Jace Amaro who is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson with a toe injury.

            TRENDS:

            * Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
            * Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
            * Under is 7-1 in Dolphins last eight games in December.
            * Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

            CONSENSUS:
            According to Consensus, 72 percent of bettors are backing the Dolphins.


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