Announcement

**Udog** · 11-25-2014, 06:35 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Early action jumps on Patriots-Packers opener

It’s getting close to crunch time in the NFL, and Week 13 will feature several key matchups, particularly in divisional games. But the most intriguing contest just might be a Super Bowl preview, with the scorching-hot New England Patriots traveling to Lambeau Field to face the surging Green Bay Packers.

New England opened as high as +3.5 but early action has this spread settling at the touchdown at most books.

“Most think this is a preview of the Super Bowl, we opened the Packers at -3(-115) and saw mostly Patriot money come in on the +3,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, tells Covers. “Since we think this is a solid number for this matchup we have adjusted the juice to (-105) hoping to attract some Packers money.”

The Pats (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) aren’t just winning, they are pummeling opponents. Since getting whitewashed 41-14 at Kansas City in Week 4, New England has gone 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS and has scored 34 points or more six times. On Sunday, the Patriots rolled visiting Detroit 34-9 as a 7.5-point favorite.

The Packers (8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) have won seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS), though they had to hang on for a win Sunday at Minnesota, 24-21 giving 7.5 points.

“So far, we are long on the Patriots with 86 percent of the action on them to cover the three points,” says Stewart. “We do, however, believe we will start to see Packer money come in the closer we get to game time.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Both teams will come in off a short week for this Thanksgiving Day NFC East Division showdown.

“Game 2 of the Thanksgiving triple header, this battle for the NFC East will go a long way to determine the winner of the division,” says Stewart. “We opened the Cowboys -3 and have seen good two-way action at that number.”

Philly is finding a way to get it done without starting quarterback Nick Foles (collarbone), with Mark Sanchez keeping the Eagles on track. Philadelphia (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) thumped Tennessee 43-24 as an 11-point home fave Sunday.

Dallas (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) had a bye week to prep for its roady against the New York Giants, but still found itself losing 21-10 at halftime Sunday night. But the Cowboys got it together in the second half to eke out a 31-28 victory, failing to cash as a 4-point chalk.

“Where we are seeing the most lopsided action on this game is on the total,” says Stewart. “We opened the total at 54 and it was quickly bet up to 54.5. And with the action pouring in on the Over still, we have moved to 55 with 98 percent of the action on the Over. I could see us moving this to 56 or even higher as we get closer to game time.”

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

It’s an NFC West clash that both teams need in order to stay in the thick of the playoff chase, and they’ll both be on short rest as they play Thanksgiving night.

“We opened the 49ers as 1-point faves and took some good action on that number moving us to -2 where we had a few sharp wagers come in on the Seahawks at +2 moving us back to 49ers-1 and eventually to a pick’em,” says Stewart. “With the public backing the home team in this game, we have moved back to 49ers -1 with a good split of action on the side, 45 to 55 percent.”

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) got its playoff hopes back on track, cooling off first-place division rival Arizona 19-3 as a 7.5-point home favorite. San Francisco, meanwhile, needed a late touchdown at home to fend off lackluster Washington 17-13, failing to cash as a hefty 9-point chalk.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver hardly looks like a team that went to the Super Bowl last season, struggling to get anything done the past month. The Broncos (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS), coming off an outright loss at St. Louis, needed a 22-point second half to hold off Miami 39-37 laying 6.5 points at home.

“We opened the Broncos as 1-point favorites,” Stewart says. “And after their performance running the ball this past weekend, we took nothing but Broncos action. We moved to -1.5 and still the Broncos action continues to come in, so we have moved to -2 and are still long on the Broncos with 82 percent of the action on the Broncos to cover.”

Kansas City (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) had won five in a row SU and ATS before suffering a 24-20 loss at previously winless Oakland as a 7.5-point chalk last Thursday night.

“Going into one of the toughest places in the league to play, Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense are going to have to find a way to handle the noise at Arrowhead and the pass rush of the Chiefs,” says Stewart

**Udog** · 11-25-2014, 06:35 PM

NFL line watch: No respect for underrated Rams in Week 13

Spread to bet on now

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams (-7)

If any losing team deserves a pat on the back this season, it’s the Rams. Given up for dead after Sam Bradford was lost for the season, St. Louis has resisted the urge to cut and run and may have the best 4-7 record in NFL history, with wins over Denver, San Francisco (road) and Seattle.

And the Rams were one possession away from victories over San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia. So with a lot of luck they could be 7-4 and still in the hunt in the NFC West.

Playing at home, the Rams are clearly more than a TD better than Oakland on the road and, unless something strange happens, St. Louis should cover the seven.

Spread to wait on

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

If this game was scheduled for Week 10 and not Week 12, the Lions would have been laying 12 or 13. But much has happened since then – all good for the Bears (two straight wins) and all bad for the Lions.

Detroit simply can’t score anymore, and no one seems to be able to figure out why. Eight quarters without a touchdown have raised concerns about whether the Lions are even playoff material, let alone Super Bowl contenders.

Not only that, but now offensive lineman Dominic Raiola is taking heat after admitting that he intentionally tried to injure a Patriots player late in the Lions’ loss at New England. It might be a good idea to see what kind of attitude the Lions bring to practice this week before laying down any cash on this Thanksgiving Day game either way.

Total to watch

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (58)

The Packers are scoring a ton of points at home – 108 in the last two at Lambeau Field, and averaging nearly 44. New England’s offense appears just as unstoppable, with weapons seemingly everywhere. The two best quarterbacks in the league are also on display Sunday.

It all adds up to a ridiculously high college-like total. But it’s doubtful that Bill Belichick has any interest in getting involved in an up-and-down-the-field game, so bettors might want to take a hard look at an Under play.

Books like this as a field-goal game anyway, so if this is close at halftime, conservative playcalling late in the game might tend to keep this one from getting completely out of hand.

**Udog** · 11-25-2014, 06:35 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 27

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CHICAGO (5 - 6) at DETROIT (7 - 4) - 11/27/2014, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (8 - 3) at DALLAS (8 - 3) - 11/27/2014, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (7 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 4) - 11/27/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 58-85 ATS (-35.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 30

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WASHINGTON (3 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 9) at HOUSTON (5 - 6) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 4) at BUFFALO (6 - 5) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (7 - 4) at BALTIMORE (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (3 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 10) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-53 ATS (-28.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (7 - 3 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 9) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (1 - 10) at ST LOUIS (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 33-70 ATS (-44.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 72-99 ATS (-36.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 7 - 1) at MINNESOTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-40 ATS (+28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 48-23 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (4 - 7) - 11/30/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) at GREEN BAY (8 - 3) - 11/30/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-48 ATS (+31.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-72 ATS (+23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (8 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 4) - 11/30/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 1

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MIAMI (6 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 9) - 12/1/2014, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-25-2014, 06:36 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, Nov. 27

Chicago at Detroit, 12:30 ET
Chicago: 3-12 ATS versus division opponents
Detroit: 29-14 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

Philadelphia at Dallas, 4:30 ET
Philadelphia: 6-15 ATS after playing a game at home
Dallas: 6-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Seattle at San Francisco, 8:30 ET
Seattle: 9-1 ATS as an underdog
San Francisco: 54-35 OVER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Sunday, Nov. 30

Washington at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Indianapolis: 17-7 ATS as a favorite

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 2-11 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 16-5 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards/game

Cleveland at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 81-57 UNDER after playing their last game on the road
Buffalo: 30-16 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

San Diego at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 16-6 UNDER against conference opponents
Baltimore: 9-1 UNDER after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

NY Giants at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
New York: 49-30 ATS in road games off a division game
Jacksonville: 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Tampa Bay: 19-8 UNDER against AFC North division opponents

Oakland at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 34-19 OVER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game
St Louis: 9-1 OVER off a non-conference game

New Orleans at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 6-19 ATS against AFC North division opponents
Pittsburgh: 44-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Minnesota: 4-13 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival

Arizona at Atlanta, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Atlanta: 16-32 ATS in home games after playing a game at home

New England at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
New England: 15-5 OVER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Denver at Kansas City, 8:30 ET
Denver: 26-14 ATS as a favorite
Kansas City: 36-58 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Monday, Dec. 1

Miami at New York Jets, 8:30 ET
Miami: 11-2 UNDER versus division opponents
New York: 2-10 ATS off a division game

**Udog** · 11-25-2014, 06:36 PM

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 27

12:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

4:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Francisco's last 14 games

Sunday, November 30

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. ST. LOUIS
Oakland is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PITTSBURGH
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. BALTIMORE
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MINNESOTA
Carolina is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. JACKSONVILLE
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. GREEN BAY
New England is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Denver's last 24 games on the road
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Monday, December 1

8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-27-2014, 08:24 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Seattle at San Francisco
The Seahawks head to San Francisco tonight and come into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 road games. San Francisco is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-1). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Game 305-306: Chicago at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.727; Detroit 145.053
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 20 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under

Game 307-308: Philadelphia at Dallas (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.152; Dallas 135.391
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Seattle at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 133.562; San Francisco 136.679
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-1); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 451-452: Washington at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.318; Indianapolis 133.877
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 10; 51
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+10); Over

Game 453-454: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 121.198; Houston 134.540
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 455-456: Cleveland at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 133.174; Buffalo 133.238
Dunkel Line: Even; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 457-458: San Diego at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.563; Baltimore 135.937
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+6 1/2); Over

Game 459-460: NY Giants at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 126.080; Jacksonville 121.699
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.276; Tampa Bay 129.426
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+4); Over

Game 463-464: Oakland at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.428; St. 133.944
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 8 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: New Orleans at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 128.495; Pittsburgh 135.027
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 467-468: Carolina at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.098; Minnesota 125.275
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

Game 469-470: Arizona at Atlanta (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.067; Atlanta 132.698
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 471-472: New England at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.802; Green Bay 147.025
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 58
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 473-474: Denver at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 137.722; Kansas City 137.957
Dunkel Line: Even; 53
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 1

Game 475-476: Miami at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.985; NY Jets 127.670
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 11-27-2014, 08:35 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Bears (5-6) @ Lions (7-4)—Detroit lost four of last five Turkey Day games but favorite covered all five; Lions won 40-10 LY, over Rodgers-less Pack. Detroit lost last two weeks on road, with no TDs, seven FGA on 21 drives; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year, with last three home games decided by total of eight points. Chicago lost three of last four road games after winning first two; they’re 3-3 as road underdogs, and won four of last six visits to Motor City, but got swept 40-32/21-19 by Lions LY, after having won nine of previous 10 series games. Chicago won last two games, both 21-13, after losing five of previous six. Last ten Detroit games stayed under the total; average total in last three games of this series is 54.0.

Eagles (8-3) @ Cowboys (8-3)—Dallas scored 26+ points in seven of eight wins; they are 1-3 when scoring less than that. Cowboys are 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-23 overall as HFs under Garrett. Three Sanchez starts were all one-sided affairs won by home team. Eagles are lost three of last four road games; they’re 0-2-1 in last three tries as road underdogs. Philly has ten non-offensive TDs this year; they won 30-27 at Indy in Week 2 in only other game on carpet this season. Home side lost six of last eight series games, with each team 3-1 in last four visits to others’ building. Divisional home favorites are 15-15 vs spread this year, 1-3 in NFC East games. Last four Philly games, six of last nine Dallas games went over total.

Seahawks (7-4) @ 49ers (7-4)—Defending champs are 2-3 on road, beating Redskins, Panthers; they’re 6-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-4 when allowing 21+. 49ers won last three games, allowing 23 points (two TDs/24 drives) last two games, but their red zone offense is worst in NFL; they scored 17 or less points in four of last five games, are 0-5 as home favorites (3-2 SU), losing to Bears/Rams. How does team with such a mobile QB have a poor red zone offense? Seattle won three of last four series games, beating Niners in playoffs LY, but Hawks lost last five visits to Candlestick, in series where home side won 10 of last 11 series games. Five of last seven Seattle games went over total; all five 49er home games stayed under.

NFL

Thursday, November 27

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NFL Thanksgiving Day betting preview
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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7, 47)

The Detroit Lions are rapidly losing ground in the NFC North and will try to avoid a third straight loss when they host the Chicago Bears in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Lions had the misfortune of playing a pair of division leaders in back-to-back weeks and had no answers on offense against the Arizona Cardinals or New England Patriots. The Bears are pulling out of their own funk with back-to-back wins as they try to get back into the race.

Detroit has been leaning heavily on its defense all season but showed some cracks in the unit while getting blasted 34-9 by the New England Patriots on Sunday. The Patriots steered away from the Lions’ strength along the defensive line with a series of quick passes – a strategy Chicago has the personnel to employ. The Bears' defense was a big question mark after surrendering a combined 106 points in back-to-back losses to New England and Green Bay but held Minnesota and Tampa Bay to a total of 26 in the last two contests.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Lions favored by 6.5, before jumping to Detroit -7 Monday. An opening total of 46.5 has since jumped as high as 47 before resting at 47 on Wednesday.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - LB Lance Briggs (Ques-Groin), CB Kyle Fuller (Doub-Knee) Lions - RB Reggie Bush (Prob-Ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (Prob-Ankle), T Riley Reiff (Ques-Leg), LB Ashlee Palmer (Ques-Concussion)

ABOUT THE BEARS (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Chicago’s offense has been under some scrutiny and it generated only 68 yards while going scoreless in the first half on Sunday before taking advantage of some Tampa Bay turnovers to put up 21 third-quarter points in the 21-13 triumph. “Win or loss, we’re always trying to improve on offense,” quarterback Jay Cutler said on his radio show on ESPN 1000 on Monday. “We’re always looking at what we did wrong. This week’s a little bit different because we’ve got to move on.” The most consistent part of the offense has been running back Matt Forte, who could become a bigger part of the passing game this week as the Bears take on the NFL’s top-ranked rush defense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-9 O/U): Matthew Stafford went 18-of-46 for a career-worst 39.1 completion percentage against New England but only some of that can be blamed on poor throws, as Detroit's receivers had several notable drops in the red zone. “We’ve got to keep working at it, we’ve got to keep concentrating on it,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters of the drops. “Those are the things that stop drives and they certainly did stop some drives for us and kept us from getting a couple of scores.” Star receiver Calvin Johnson was targeted a total of 22 time in the last two games but only made nine catches for 117 yards.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC North.
*Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
*Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Detroit.

CONSENSUS: 59.32 percent of users are backing the Lions -7 with 60.8 percent on the over.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 54.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have a pretty short turnaround after playing the late game on the road Sunday but should not lack energy when they take on the visiting Philadelphia Eagles in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Cowboys and the Eagles enter the weekend tied for first in the NFC East and both are coming off impressive victories. Dallas had the luxury of a bye in Week 11 before the grind of two games in five days.

The Cowboys had to battle back from a 21-10 halftime deficit and earned a 31-28 win at the New York Giants on Sunday when Tony Romo found Dez Bryant in the end zone with 1:01 left. “It’s our job as coaches to make sure we understand the physical burden that they’ve been under,” Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. “…But having said that we’ve got to get their minds forward and get ready for this next challenge.” The Eagles, who lead the NFC in total offense, will represent the biggest challenge for the Cowboys defense, which is surrendering an average of 355 yards.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Neither the opening line of Cowboys -3 or opening total of 54.5 have moved.

INJURY REPORT: Eagles - LB Emmanuel Acho (Ques-Thurs) Cowboys - DT Josh Brent (Ques-Conditioning)

ABOUT THE EAGLES (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Philadelphia fell on its face in a 53-20 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 16 but bounced right back on Sunday as LeSean McCoy ran for 130 yards and a score in a 43-24 win over the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles are undefeated within the division and earned a 24-22 win at Dallas in the final week of the regular season to lock up the NFC East crown in 2013. "We're not talking about first-place games because they don't crown a champion after Thursday's game," Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly told reporters. "We're just excited about the opportunity to go play against a really good team."

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U): Romo missed that Week 17 loss to the Eagles last season after undergoing back surgery but is rounding into health after another back scare a few weeks ago and threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants. Romo was on the field with most of his teammates for Monday’s walk-through as the team accelerates it usual practice week. Taking some pressure off Romo is running back DeMarco Murray, who had his 10th 100-yard game of the season on Sunday and leads the league in rushing

TRENDS:

*Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
*Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.
*Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Cowboys -3 have 52.07 percent of users, with the over seeing a huge 74.7 percent.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 39.5)

The stakes are certainly not as high as when Seattle knocked off San Francisco in last season's NFC Championship game, but Thursday's outcome figures to have some major playoff ramifications when the 49ers host the Seahawks in a matchup of bitter NFC West rivals. With both teams trailing division-leading Arizona by two games and a rematch in Seattle looming in 17 days, the loser will face an uphill climb in the crowded NFC. “It’s a big game for us," San Francisco safety Antoine Bethea said. "It’s our next game.”

The 49ers are riding a three-game winning streak - the victories coming by a combined 12 points - while the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won four of five to surge back into playoff contention. While the teams have split the past four meetings, the home side prevailing in each, Seattle outlasted San Francisco 23-17 in the NFC title game as cornerback Richard Sherman knocked away a pass in the end zone and promptly ripped 49ers wideout Michael Crabtree in a postgame interview. "We're going to have to play great football," Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson said. "Play lights out, that's it."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The game originally opened as a pick'em before shifting to San Farncisco -1 late Tuesday. The total opened at 41 before being pushed down to 39.5 Tuesday.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - G James Carpenter (Ques-Ankle), DB Marcus Burley (Ques-Hamstring), C Max Unger (Ques-Ankle) 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Ques-Concussion), TE Vance McDonald (Ques-Hip)

WEATHER REPORT: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with a game time temperature around 66°F. Winds will gust as high 10 mph towards the northwest.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Running back Marshawn Lynch has been a walking soap opera for Seattle, ranging from being fined for refusing to speak to the media to speculation about his future with the club and recurring back issues that forced him to briefly leave last week's 19-3 win over the Cardinals. The spotlight will remain on Lynch, who rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown in last season's playoff victory and has run for five touchdowns in the past five meetings (postseason included). Wilson has not passed for more than 211 yards during the current 4-1 stretch, but he been a dangerous threat out of the backfield with three 100-yard rushing games this season. The return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner from injury provided a boost to the defense, which limited Arizona to 204 total yards last week.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): San Francisco was teetering at .500 after back-to-back defeats against Denver and St. Louis, but showed its mettle by rebounding with an overtime victory at New Orleans before giving up a combined 23 points in narrow wins over the New York Giants and Washington. “You make a deposit in the toughness account and you’ll be able to make withdrawals from that later down the road," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We want to keep making those deposits.” Wideout Anquan Boldin, the epitome of that toughness, is coming off a nine-catch, 137-yard outing but Colin Kaepernick has thrown for only one scoring pass in each of the past five contests while running back Frank Gore has not cracked 100 yards since Oct. 5. Linebacker Aldon Smith had two sacks in his second game back from suspension and has six in his last six contests versus Seattle.

TRENDS:

*Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
*Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 53.20 percent of users are behind the Seahawks +1, with 50.9 percent taking the over.

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NFL

Thursday, November 27

Seahawks' Lynch will play vs. 49ers

Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, who has been hampered by injuries and illness the past two weeks, will play against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday, coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday.

Lions one of the top under plays in NFL

The Detroit Lions top ranked defense has made them one of the top under plays this season. The Lions are 2-9 over/under this season, thanks to the defense holding opponents to a mere 17.3 points per game.

It also helps the under that the Lions offense has averaged a poor 17.9 ppg.

The Lions and Chicago Bears current total is set at 47 for Thursday.

Poor secondary play could hurt Bears

The Chicago Bears' secondary have been leaking like a siv this season. Since their bye week, the Bears have allowed 818 passing yards and eight touchdowns.

"The Bears rank 30th in the NFL allowing 27.5 points per game and have the 29th-ranked pass defense," Scott Kaminsky from TheGreek.com tells Covers.

Offense and turnovers leading to Eagles going over

The Philadelphia Eagles have once again become one of the hottest offensive teams in the NFL causing them to be a hot over play. All four of Philly's past four contests have gone over.

You can certainly thank an offense that has averaged 34.8 points per game during that span, as well as Mark Sanchez throwing six interceptions in those starts.

The Eagles and Cowboys current total is 55.

Seahawks dominate the 49ers against the spread

NFC West competition is brutal, but the Seattle Seahawks have been dominating the San Francisco 49ers at the window. In the past five meetings between the two rivals, the Seahawks are a perfect 5-0 against the spread.

Seattle has covered by an average of 10.5 points per game, but two of those five games were only covered by 0.5 points.

The Seahawks are currently 1.5-point road dogs Thursday.

Seahawks rushing defense could be key

The Seattle Seahawks have been solid stopping the run this season, allowing just 88.4 yards per game. The continued strength of rushing defense could go a long way to topping the San Francisco 49ers according to Scott Kaminsky of The Greek.com.

"The Seahawks gave up 130 rushing yards to Kaepernick in [the NFC Championship game]," Kaminsky says. "But have only allowed 72 rushing yards to QB's this entire season."

Seattle will also need to worry about Frank Gore, who has torched the Seahawks for 6.9 yards per carry in San Francisco.

**CheCheBoFumbe** · 11-27-2014, 11:22 AM

Thanks Udog

**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by CheCheBoFumbe View Post

Thanks Udog

Sure, CheChe! I hope you're having a great birthday!

**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:17 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Redskins (3-8) @ Colts (7-4)-- Washington switches to McCoy at QB here, after three straight losses with Griffin at QB- they scored two TDs on 22 drives in last two games, with seven 3/outs. Redskins are 3-3 as road underdogs this year; four of their last five road games were decided by 4 or less points; they won McCoy's other start this season, in OT at Dallas. Indy split last four games but covered four of last five at home; they're 3-0 this year when laying 7+ points. Colts won last two series games 36-22/27-24; AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 6-12-1, 4-6 on road. Seven of last ten Colt games went over total; four of last five Washington games stayed under.

Titans (2-9) @ Texans (5-6)-- Mallett only lasted two games as Houston QB before he got hurt and is done for year, so back to Fitzpatrick for Texans, who won at Tennessee 30-16 (-3) in Week 8, running ball for 212 yards with +2 turnover ratio in Mettenberger's first NFL start. Houston won four of last five series games, winning 38-14/30-24ot in last two played here. Titan defense is having trouble getting off field; opponents are 19 of 32 on third down in last two games. Tennessee covered once in last five road games, with four losses by 14+ points; they've scored only six TD in 13 red zone drives in last four games. Houston lost its last three home games. Six of last eight Titan games went over total. Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in AFC South divisional games.

Browns (7-4) @ Bills (6-5)—Cleveland coach Pettine was Bills’ DC last year. When three 7-4 teams are tied for last in a division, you know there is strength there. AFC North teams are 17-9-1 vs spread outside division. Browns won four of last five games, winning at Saints/Texans last two weeks. Short road trip here is their third week in row on road, historical soft spot (Denver’s loss at St Louis in Week 11). Snow was gone from Ralph Wilson Stadium as of Tuesday noon; Bills go on short week after waxing listless Jets Monday night. Buffalo scored 17 or fewer points in four of five losses; they’re 4-1 when scoring 20+, are 2-3 SU at home this season. Last three Cleveland games, four of last five Buffalo games stayed under total.

Chargers (7-4) @ Ravens (7-4)-- San Diego is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing its last two road games 35-21/37-0, after Chargers covered first three games as an underdog this season. Bolts lost field position in five of last six games, after winning it in first five. Baltimore won/covered last four home games by average score of 29-8, allowing total of three TDs on last 39 drives in home games; they ran ball for 366 yards in last two games. Ravens are 5-4 in last nine series games, with three of last four meetings decided by 5 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4; AFC West teams are 17-11 vs spread outisde their division, 7-3 as road underdogs. Three of last four Baltimore games went over the total.

Giants (3-8) @ Jaguars (1-10)-- Giants lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 1-4 on road this year, but did cover only game as favorite (Week 5 vs Atlanta). Coach Coughlin was first coach in Jax history, getting them in playoffs in their second season. First home game in five weeks for Jaguars, who are 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 27-8-14 with an upset of Cleveland. Giants scored 30+ points in all three wins this year; they've been outscored in second half of last six games (total of 52-10 in last three). Home teams won last five series games; Giants' wins are by 3-7-4 points- they haven't been here since '06. Four of last five Giant games went over total; five of last seven Jax games stayed under. Jaguars allowed average of 166.3 rushing yards in last four games, a red flag.

Bengals (7-3-1) @ Buccaneers (2-9)-- Tampa Bay is 0-5 at home this season, with three losses by 6 or less points; they've turned ball over 13 times in last five games (-7), ran ball for only 69 ypg last three weeks. Cincy won four of last five games, holding Texans to one TD on 17 drives last two weeks, but this is their third week in row on road, soft spot in NFL history. Bengals scored 17 or less points in all three losses. Bucs won last six series games, with four of six wins by 3 or less points; Bengals lost two of their three visits here, with last visit in '06. AFC North teams are 10-1-1 SU vs NFC South teams, which are 10-21 vs spread outside their division. AFC North road favorites are 2-5. Last five Tampa games, last three Bengal games stayed under total.

Raiders (1-10) @ Rams (4-7)-- Oakland had extra three days to prep after getting its first win vs Chiefs last Thursday; Raiders covered three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 5-7-10-6-7 points. St Louis was underdog of 7+ points in six of last eight games; tough schedule- they're favored for first time since getting thumped by Vikings (with Peterson) in season opener. Rams are 4-4 as home favorites in Fisher era- they beat Seahawks/Broncos in last two home games. Raiders are 8-4 in series, but lost two of last three; this is their first visit here since '02. AFC West road underdogs are 7-3 outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 5-7. Six of last nine Ram games, three of last four Oakland games went over total.

Saints (4-7) @ Steelers (7-4)-- Pittsburgh won last five post-bye games, allowing 9.8 ppg, with four of five staying under. New Orleans is 4-7 despite being favored in 10 of its 11 games; they lost at home last three weeks; are 1-4 on road, with only win at Carolina in last road game. Over last four games, Saint opponents are 30-55 on third down- NO has only two takeaways in last three games. Steelers won four of last five games, are 4-1 at home, with odd loss to Bucs in Week 4; Pitt scored 41.3 ppg in winning last three home tilts, by 7-17-20 points. Home side won last four series games; Saints lost 37-14/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; NFC South road dogs are 5-7. Four of last five Pitt games went over.

Panthers (3-7-1) @ Vikings (4-7)-- Hard to lay points with Minnesota squad that hasn't averaged 6.0 ypa since Week 4 vs Falcons; their last two opponents were 16 for 28 on third down. Carolina is 1-7-1 since 2-0 start, still only half-game out of first; Panthers allowed 75 points in two games (0-1-1) on artifical turf this season- they lost last three post-bye games by combined score of 71-23. Minnesota is 1-0 as a favorite this year; four of its last five games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Carolina is 1-3 in last four games as road dog, allowing 37+ points in all four games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Carolina games, five of last six Viking games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Falcons (4-7)-- Arizona has two TDs on 19 drives in last two games; they have to be more cautious, with no viable backup behind Stanton. Redbirds are 4-1 on road, losing for first time last week; in last three games, Arizona ran ball 68 times for 138 yards. Atlanta is 0-7 outside its division; three of its last four games were decided by 1 or 2 points. Falcons have nine takeaways in last three games (+6); they're +5 for season and are still just 4-7. Home side won last seven series games; Cards lost last six visits here, with last win in '93. NFC South teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games. NFC West road favorites are 6-1. Cardinals won two of three games this year on artificial turf. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under total.

Patriots (9-2) @ Packers (8-3)-- Since 2003, NE is 15-6-1 as road underdog, but they are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games on grass. Pats won last seven games, covering last four, scoring 42.5 ppg. Over last six games, Patriots are 41-76 on 3rd down; they've run 70+ plays in each of last four games. Packer opponents are 13-40 on third down in last three games; Pack won seven of last eight games, covering last four at home; outscoring opponents 128-9 in first half. Packers are 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning all five games by 7+ points. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread, 6-4 on road. NFC North favorites are 7-5. Over is combined 17-5 in these teams' games; 8-3 in Patriot games, 9-2 in Green Bay's.

Broncos (8-3) @ Chiefs (7-4)-- KC had three extra days to prep after losing at Oakland last game; Broncos (-12) beat Chiefs 24-17 in Week 2, despite KC having 75-46 edge in plays (Chiefs were 11-16 on 3rd down, Denver 3-8). KC's two empty trips to red zone were difference. Denver is on road for 4th time in five weeks; they won last three visits here by 7-8-7 points, but are 2-3 on road, with only wins at Jets/Raiders. Chiefs covered nine of last 10 games, won five of last six; they've won last four home games, beating the Pats/Seahawks. KC allowed 204-179 rushing yards in last two games, red flag after 201 yards Denver ran for last week. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Seven of last eight Denver games went over total. KC safety Berry is out after a mass was discovered in his chest this week; our thoughts and prayers are with him.

Dolphins (6-5) @ Jets (2-9)-- Miami won five of last six visits here, winning 30-9/23-3 in last two in series where road team won last four games. Jets covered against Packers-Pats-Steelers, all good teams, are 0-7-1 vs spread in other eight games; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points, evidence of lack of heart once they fall behind- they were outscored 56-9 in second half of last four games. Smith gets nod at QB for Jets, who are 2-4 at home, with losses by 8-7-14-20 points. Since 2006, Jets are 8-16-1 vs spread in divisional home games. Dolphins won four of last six games, losing last two on road, at Lions/Denver. Over is 28-10 in nationally televised primetime games this year. Five of last six Miami games, last three Jet games stayed under total.

**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:23 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 30

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Game of the Day: Patriots at Packers
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New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3, 58)

Aaron Rodgers typically provides the Green Bay Packers with a decided edge at quarterback, but that won't be the case when Tom Brady and the surging New England Patriots invade Lambeau Field on Sunday in a marquee matchup between the NFL's two highest-scoring teams. Rodgers has put up video game-type numbers in guiding the Packers to seven wins in eight games and into first place in the NFC North. Brady, meanwhile, has led New England to seven consecutive victories and the best overall record in the AFC.

Green Bay has been a juggernaut at home, winning all five matchups while averaging an eye-popping 43.8 points, including back-to-back 50-point outbursts in its last two at Lambeau. "We're playing Green Bay in Green Bay," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "That's where they've been very dominant, really, in terms of getting ahead and playing from ahead, first quarter. The numbers are staggering." New England has been just as explosive, averaging 39.6 points during its current winning streak and capturing five of those games by at least 22 points.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening, the spread has not shifted from Green Bay -3. The total, which opened at 58, jumped to 59 quickly after opening before dropping down to 57.5. The line has rested at the original 58.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - CB Kyle Arrington (Ques-Neck), DT Dominique Easley (Ques-Knee), OL Cameron Fleming (Ques-Ankle) Packers - WR Davante Adams (Prob-Heel), LB Nick Perry (Ques-Shoulder), CB Jarrett Bush)

WEATHER FORECAST: A cold and windy affair is expected at Lambeau. Temperatures during game time will hover just below freezing with winds blowing northwest at 11 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-8.25) + Packers (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.75

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O/U): New England is playing its fourth straight division leader, having dispatched Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit by a combined 119-50 score to become the sixth team in league history to post 14 consecutive winning seasons. Although Brady has been picked off four times in the last three games, he has 26 scoring passes versus six interceptions and has the luxury of throwing to the league's toughest matchup in tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has 45 receptions and six of his nine touchdown catches during the seven-game run. The Patriots also have leaned on Jonas Gray and newly signed LeGarrette Blount over the past two games to provide a bruising running game, while the tandem of cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner will be a key matchup against Green Bay's superb wideouts.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 9-2 O/U): Rodgers has thrown 30 touchdowns and been intercepted only three times, and his numbers at home - 29 scoring passes with zero picks - have helped Green Bay overtake Detroit for the division lead. Jordy Nelson has been Rodgers' favorite target with 68 catches for 1,066 yards and nine touchdowns, while fellow wide receiver Randall Cobb has 10 scores among his 58 receptions. The Packers have their own battering ram at running back in Eddie Lacy, who rushed for a season-high 125 yards in last week's 24-21 victory at Minnesota and has multiple TDs in each of his last two games. The Packers can be exploited by the run, ranking 30th in the league by allowing an average of 136.7 yards, but fast starts by Rodgers and Co. usually force opponents to the air to play catch-up.

TRENDS:

*Patriots are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
*Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games in November.
*Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games overall.

CONSENSUS: 52.29 percent of users are backing the Patriots +3 with 59.9 percent on the over.

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**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:27 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 30

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Sunday Night Football: Broncos at Chiefs
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+1, 49.5)

The Denver Broncos attempt to continue their recent dominance in the all-time series when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs for a key AFC West battle on Sunday night. Denver, which holds a one-game lead over Kansas City and San Diego in the division, has won five straight meetings with the Chiefs - including a 24-17 victory at home in Week 2. The Broncos were cruising atop the West at 6-1 before losing two of three on the road, dropping them into a first-place tie with the Chiefs.

However, Denver rebounded with a 39-36 home triumph over Miami last Sunday, scoring 22 consecutive points in the fourth quarter as Peyton Manning sandwiched two of his four touchdown passes around a scoring run by C.J. Anderson to erase a 28-17 deficit. The late rally helped give the Broncos sole possession of the division lead as Kansas City earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first victim of the Oakland Raiders three days earlier. The Chiefs overcame an early 14-0 deficit and grabbed a 20-17 lead with nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before allowing Derek Carr's 9-yard TD pass to James Jones with 1:42 to play.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: After opening as a pick'em, the line briefly moved to Kansas City -1. By Wednesday, the line jumped the fence to KC +1 and got as high as +2. Currently the line sits at KC +1. The total has not moved from it's opening of 49.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Ronnie Hillman (Ques-Foot), TE Julius Thomas (Ques-Ankle), CB Aqib Talib (Ques-Hamstrong), LB Brandon Marshall (Ques-Co9ncussion) Chiefs - TE Anthony Fasano (Ques-Knee), WR Donnie Avery (Prob-Groin), OL Donald Stephenson (Ques-Shoulder)

WEATHER FORECAST: Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with winds blowing to the north as high as 13 mph. Temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing point.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-6.25) + Chiefs (-5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -1.75

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 O/U): Julius Thomas took a step toward returning to action as he participated in practice on Thursday. The tight end missed last week's victory over Miami with a sprained ankle suffered in the previous game against St. Louis. Thomas entered Week 13 tied with Seattle's Marshawn Lynch for the league lead with 12 touchdowns. Manning registered his NFL-record 35th career game with at least four TD passes last week while also becoming the third player in league history with a scoring toss in 50 consecutive contests.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-7 O/U): As if playing for a share of the division lead isn't enough, Kansas City figures to rally around the situation involving safety Eric Berry, whose season came to an end due to a mass found on the right side of his chest last week. Berry, who was placed on the non-football injury list Monday, is expected to visit a lymphoma specialist for a final diagnosis. "I believe that I am in God's hands and I have great peace in that," Berry said in a statement. "I know my coaches and teammates will hold things down here the rest of the season and until I am back running out of the tunnel at Arrowhead. ... I will be back!" Dwayne Bowe needs 48 receiving yards to join Tony Gonzalez (10,940) and Otis Taylor (7,306) as the only Chiefs to eclipse the 7,000 mark.

TRENDS:

*Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
*Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games on grass.
*Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC West.
*Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 63.39 percent of users are backing Denver +1 with 59.6 percent taking the over.

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**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:30 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 30

Cold day at Lambeau as Packers host Patriots

It looks to be a chilly day in Green Bay as the Packers host the New England Patriots in what many are considering a Super Bowl preview.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s in Green Bay and wind is slated to blow across the field at around 12 mph.

The Packers are presently 3-point favorites and the total is 58.

Rain, wind on tap in Buffalo Sunday

Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium could be in store for a little rain and wind as the Bills host the Cleveland Browns Sunday.

As of Saturday, weather website Wunderground is predicting a 72 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field at around 14 mph.

The Bills are 3.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have a total of 42.5 on the board.

Covers not coming easily for Giants

Eli Manning and the New York Giants have been a very poor spread play recently, a trend they'll try to buck against Jacksonville Sunday.

The G-Men are 1-5 against the spread in their last six outings. New York is listed as 3-point road faves for the affair with a total of 45.

Titans failing to cover against weak competition

Tennessee's recent struggles against the spread have been well documented, and that's not just against winning teams.

The Titans are just 1-5-2 ATS versus teams with sub .500 records. Tennessee welcomes Houston (5-6) to town in Week 13.

Houston is currently 7.5-point home faves with an O/U of 42.5.

Redskins trending Under ahead of meeting with Colts

The Washington Redskins have had a hard time putting points on the board recently, which has equated to Under backers cashing tickets at the betting window.

The Under is 4-1 in the Skins' last five contests. Colt McCoy will be back under center facing off against Andrew Luck and the Colts in Indy Sunday.

Books currently have Washington as 10-point road dogs with a total of 51.

**Udog** · 11-29-2014, 10:33 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 41)

Browns’ head coach Mike Pettine vs. Bills’ defense

It was Pettine’s work with the Buffalo defense that led to the big job in Cleveland. As the Bills defensive coordinator for 2013, he drastically shifted the franchise’s focus from a stop unit that allowed an average of 362.9 yards (22nd) in 2012 to a unit that gave up just 333.4 yards (10th) in 2013.

That success has continued, even with Pettine leaving for Ohio. Buffalo is fourth in yards allowed (312.2) and holding opponents to only 18.8 points per game. But not every opponent knows the ins-and-out of the defensive playbook, as well as most of the players executing it.

Pettine will absolutely have the inside info on the Bills’ stop unit and, with the Browns mired in a tight divisional race, he won’t be afraid to use every advantage he can. There’s bad blood between these teams already – thanks to offseason Twitter wars – so the gloves have already come off.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 44)

Bengals’ Adam Jones vs. Buccaneers’ opponent’s starting field position

Adam Jones – Yes, that Adam Jones – could be the Bengals best player in 2014. “Pacman” is tearing up the turf for Cincinnati’s special teams, averaging 31.8 yards per kickoff (best in the NFL) and 13.1 yards per punt (fourth in the NFL).

Those efforts have helped given the Bengals an average starting field position at the 29.33 yard line – eighth best in the league. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincy has only been outdone in starting field position twice this season and started drives at an average of the 30-yard line against Houston last week.

Tampa Bay is playing much better, especially on defense. But the Bucs aren’t doing themselves any favors by allowing foes to start their drives at an average of the 30.5-yard line – 29th overall in the NFL. They punted six times versus the Bears last week and currently rank last in punting average at 39.9 yards per punt.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-3, 57.5)

Patriots’ dusty run defense vs. Packers’ RB Eddie Lacy

The Patriots defense is giving up a middle-of-the-road 108.2 yards per game, but hasn’t truly been tested by opposing rushers. With New England’s offense doing the heavy lifting, foes are forced to abandon the run while trying to play catch-up. The Pats have faced just 19.3 rushing attempts per game over their last three contests.

New England allows 4.2 yards per carry, which is another stat that sits in the middle of the pile. However, we’ve seen the Patriots gets blown up by a certain type of runner this season. Smash-mouth, downhill backs have done the most damage with bulldozers like Jets RB Chris Ivory and Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles breaking off big gains against New England.

Lacy enters this massive Sunday showdown off his best performance of the season. The burly back rumbled for 125 yards and a score against the Vikings last weekend. Lacy has been a workhorse in this offense during the Packers resurgence. According to Mass Live, Lacy had just 73 total yards in the Packers’ first four games – going 2-2. Since then, he’s rushed for 511 yards on 101 runs – an average of 5.1 yards per carry. A fun stat: The Cheeseheads are 14-3-1 SU when Lacy rushes for 100 or more yards.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5, 49.5)

Broncos’ kicking conundrum vs. Chiefs’ red-zone defense

When spreads are this close, it usually comes down to a field goal – made or missed. And for the Broncos, they’ve already seen their share of misses. Denver – which has watched its kickers go 9 for 13 – brings in a new leg Sunday night, replacing Brandon McManus with former Chief/Buccaneer Connor Barth this week.

Barth hasn’t kicked in an NFL game in two years after rupturing his Achilles in his kicking foot playing basketball. On top of that, the Broncos want him to take kickoffs as well – something he hasn’t done since 2010. It’s going to be a cold and windy night in Arrowhead – where Barth started his career – and that winter weather can ice a kicker quicker than a last-second timeout.

Kansas City will try to force Denver to turn to its untested kicker more often than not Sunday night. The Chiefs are stingy inside the 20-yard line, ranked second in the league in defensive red-zone TD percentage (43.75%). They’ve trimmed that number to 30 percent in the last three contests. Kansas City is also among the best stop units to getting opponents off the field, limiting teams to a 36.88 success rate on third down.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 27 - Monday, December 1)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 27 - Monday, December 1)

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