NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 13 - Monday, November 17)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 16

Chance of messy weather as Bears host Vikings

Soldier Field could be in for some messy weather as the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North battle Sunday.

According to the website Weather Underground, temperatures will hover around 32 degrees with a 34 percent chance of a mix of rain and snow. Furthermore, wind will blow across the field at around 10 mph.

As of early Sunday morning, the Bears were 2.5-point home favorites and the total was 46.5.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Hotel handicapping contest, where some of the best handicappers in America put up $1,500 apiece, pick 5 games a week:

6) Falcons, +2-- Atlanta became the betting favorite Saturday.

5) Lions, +2.5-- Arizona QB Stanton was a Detroit draft pick.

4) Browns, -3-- Hoyer was with coach O'Brien in Foxboro.

3) Packers, -6-- Supposed to be frigid on the frozen tundra.

2) Chiefs, -1.5-- Can Seahawks stop the run with a new NT?

1) Patriots, +3-- Not often you to pick Brady getting points.

Season record of six most popular picks each week: 32-28

2013 season record of six most popular picks each week: 42-57-4

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday........

13) Florida State 30, Miami 26-- All they do is win; Jameis Winston is now 23-0 as a starter; he threw for 300+ yards in 12 of the 23 games. Down 23-7 with 10:00 left in first half, they chipped away and finally took lead for good with 3:05 left. Anyone who doesn't put them in the top 4 in the country is either stupid or has an agenda.

12) In-game wagering here in Las Vegas is interesting; they change the spread after every score. At one point, you could have bet Florida State +11 in this game, when it was 23-7. It takes a leap of faith and a strong stomach, but is turned out to be a good bargain. Seminoles fall behind so much, if you like them to win, might as well wait until they fall behind, then bet them and get added value.

11) Alabama 25, Mississippi State 20-- Nothing like being in Las Vegas sportsbook when a team gets a backdoor cover in last minute or two. After being down 19-0, State battled back to within 19-13 early in 4th quarter, but Bama scored with 8:09 left to go up 25-13. Bulldogs scored with 0:15 left on 4th down to cover the spread.

About 90 seconds after State scored, Texas Tech scored on last play of the game to cover against Oklahoma. Great fun to see people's reactions.

10) TCU 34, Kansas 30-- Jayhawks are terrible; this close result pushes the Horned Frogs out of the top 4. Kansas led by 10 with 19:00 left.

9) Wisconsin 59, Nebraska 24-- Melvin Gordon carried ball 25 times for 408 yards as Badgers won on a 26-degree day in Madison, Wisconsin's coldest home game since 1965. 408 yards is the single-game record, beating out LaDanian Tomlinson's record of 406 yards. Gordon had 258 at the half, was done for day by time it started to snow in fourth quarter. I hate snow, even on TV 1,500 miles away.

8) Arizona 27, Washington 26-- Huskies fumbled on their own 45 with 1:23 left, and kicked winning 47-yard FG to go to 8-2. Kicker Casey Skowron was once the student manager of the women's soccer team at Arizona; now he's a hero.

Penalty yardage in this game: Washington: 111, Arizona 14. Six of Arizona's 10 games have been decided by 7 or less points.

7) Northwestern 43, Notre Dame 40 OT-- Wildcats had scored average of 12.5 ppg in losing previous four games, they win here in OT after a hideous piece of coaching by Notre Dame, which had the ball with 1:38 left and Northwestern out of timeouts.

Instead of taking three knees, Notre Dame ran a play and fumbled, losing for second time in row to the Wildcats. They were a 17-point dog in this game; last time they met, in 1995, Northwestern was a 28-point dog.

6) Tennessee 50, Kentucky 16-- Vols have their QB in soph Joshua Dobbs, who threw for 297 yards and three TDs and ran for 48 more yards. Butch Jones is a very good coach; the Vols will be a force in the SEC for years to come.

5) In case you care about such things, Alabama/Mississippi State are two schools in SEC who are closest to each other, 84 miles. Finanacially? Little farther apart.

4) South Florida 14, SMU 13-- 0-9 Mustangs led 13-0 with 9:00 left on a rainy night in Texas, had their hearts ripped out when USF scored with 0:04 left for the win.

3) South Carolina 23, Florida 20 ot-- Spurrier beats his alma mater; his Gamecocks tied game with 0:12 left. Gators will be looking for a new coach soon.

2) Arkansas 17, LSU 0-- Sometimes you can handicap just by looking at a schedule; Tigers battled hard in OT with Alabama last week, Arkansas had a bye. LSU's kicker had a rough night, missing an easy one that would've gotten Tigers to within 10-3.

1) Boise State 38, San Diego State 29-- Aztecs led 20-0 with 7:33 left in half, but Boise battled back and held serve on its blue turf. Boise/Colorado State are two best teams in Mountain West and Air Force is pretty good, too.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 11 line moves

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers - Open: -1.5, Move: +1.5

Surprising, or unsurprisingly depending on who you talk to, the winner of this NFC South matchup puts itself right back in the hunt for the division title. Granted, this is probably the NFL's worst division, but still.

The Falcons head in 3-6 (4-5 ATS) and the Panthers sit 3-6-1 (5-5 ATS), but the home team has had the decided advantage over the years, posting a record of 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

The Panthers opened as faves, but that line has bounced erratically since post.

"We opened the Panthers as a 1.5-point home favorite early Tuesday morning and saw a steady flow of action come in on that number throughout the day forcing us to move the Panthers to -2 late in the afternoon," Stewart tells Covers. "We started to see some sharp money come in on the Falcons at +2 forcing us back down to 1.5. Thursday we saw more sharp action come in on the Falcons as a road dog eventually pushing to where we currently sit Falcons -1.5 with 65 percent of the action."

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals - Open: -2.5, Move: -2, Move: -1

Drew Stanton returns under center for the Cardinals following Carson Palmer's torn ACL against the Rams. The Michigan State product has started three games already this season posting a record of 2-1 SU and ATS in those games. The Cards have won five-straight games SU and ATS and oddsmakers opened them as faves with their backup QB now leading the offense.

"We opened the Cardinals as 2.5-point faves at home early in the week and quickly went to Cards -1 with sharp action coming in on the Lions after the Palmer injury," Stewart explains. "But with the public backing the home team we moved back up to Cards -2 mid week, but again got pounded by the sharps at that number pushing us back down to Cards -1 where we currently sit with 52 percent of the action on the Lions to cover."

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers - Open: -4, Move: -5.5, Move: -6.5

Speaking of backup quarterbacks, Eagles second-stringer-turned-starter Mark Sanchez looks to lead his club to its second-straight victory this week. Sanchez has his work cut out for him on the Frozen Tundra as temperatures are expected to dip to a chilly 27 degrees in Green Bay Sunday.

The Pack came out of their Week 9 bye with a 55-14 plastering of the Chicago Bears and opened anywhere from 4.5-point faves in some spots to 6.5-point faves at other shops.

"We opened the Packers as 4-point favorites and saw nothing but Packer backers at that number moving us to -4.5 then eventually -5.5 where we took some sharp action on the Eagles at that number pushing it back to 5," Stewart said. "The public money on the Packers has been overwhelming forcing us up to Packers -6.5 where we currently sit with 80 percent of the action on the Packers to cover."

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -2.5

Primetime viewers could be in store for an instant classic as Andrew Luck and the Colts host Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Sunday nighter.

The Colts are one of the best bets in the entire league, boasting a record of 7-2 against the spread on the season. But Patriots backers have had much to celebrate when their team is pegged as a dog, like they are in this one. The Pats have closed as an underdog three times this season and have gone 3-0 ATS in those spots, covering with relative ease in each case. They defeated Denver 43-21 as 3-point dogs, Buffalo 37-22 as 1-point road dogs and crushed Cincinnati 43-17 as 2.5-point home pups.

As Stewart explains, this one has the sharps and public divided.

"We opened the Colts as 2.5-point faves and have been dealing that number all week with the sharp action on the Colts to cover at home and the public backing the underdog Patriots who have been red hot coming into this game," he says. "The Patriots are getting 63 percent of the action as 2.5-point underdogs."

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 17

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Monday Night Football: Steelers at Titans
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+6, 46.5)

Ben Roethlisberger had thrown an NFL-record dozen touchdown passes in two games heading into last week's apparent mismatch against the New York Jets. Roethlisberger managed just one, however, against New York's injury-riddled secondary and the Steelers were stunned by New York, which had lost eight straight. Pittsburgh looks to get the aerial attack back in form when it visits the Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

Pittsburgh's dud against New York snapped its three-game winning streak and dropped the Steelers into a tie for third place in the crowded AFC North Division. The Titans, looking to the future, are riding a three-game losing streak but they have won the past two and eight of the last 10 meetings in the series. Rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger will make his third NFL start and has thrown three touchdown passes and two interceptions in his prior two.

TV: 8:30 p.m., ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Titans as 5-point home dogs, and that has moved to +6. The total has come down a half-point from the opening 47.

INJURY REPORT: Steelers - NT Steve McLendon (Questionable, shoulder), LB Ryan Shazier (Questionable, ankle), S Troy Polamalu (Out, knee). Titans - TE Delanie Walker (Questionable, concussion), DT Sammie Hill (Questionable, hamstring), RB Dexter McCluster (Questionable, knee).

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the field at 10 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+0.25) - Titans (+5.25) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers -2

ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Led by Roethlisberger's surge, Pittsburgh ranks first in the NFL in total offense. Antonio Brown leads the league in receptions and receiving yardage, but the Steelers have become one-dimensional as of late. Running back Le'Veon Bell has just 56 yards on 21 carries in his last two games, but he figures to have more success against a defense that was torched for 112 yards on the ground by Justin Forsett in a loss to Baltimore last week.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Mettenberger is completing 63.2 percent of his passes but he will be without one of his top targets in tight end Delanie Walker, who suffered a concussion last week. Running back Dexter McClusker is also questionable with a knee injury, further hindering an offense that ranks 31st in the league. Tennessee opened the season with a win at Kansas City but has just one other victory - a home win over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee
* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Steelers last five road games.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 74 percent of bettors are backing the Steelers.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 17


Dogs dominating ATS in Steelers-Titans clashes

When the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans get together, it's the underdogs that have been prevailing for spread backers.

Pups are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two clubs. They'll renew acquaintances for Monday Night Football in Nashville.

The books have Zach Mettenberger's club listed as +5.5 home dogs for the affair. On the total, the game is presently at 45.5.


Prior to SNF, Under has massive Sunday in NFL

Prior to Sunday Night Football, the Under has been the story in the Sunday edition of Week 11 NFL action.

The Over/Under went 2-9 in Sunday's first 11 games. That mark was nearly 1-10, but Seattle-Kansas City combined for 44 points - barely hitting the Over on the 43.5 total.

The total for Monday Night Football's contest between Pittsburgh and Tennessee is sitting at 45.5.


Packers extend Over streak to seven games

Going above the total proved yet again to be no issue for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers Sunday.

The Pack hammered the Mark Sanchez-led Eagles 53-20 on the frozen tundra, smashing the closing total of 55. The win marked the seventh-straight game Green Bay has cashed Over tickets.

Green Bay travels to The Gopher State for a date with rival Minnesota in Week 12. At The Greek, the opening total for that contest is 49.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 17


Underdogs have a big day on the gridiron

Week 11 in the NFL went to the dogs, well the underdogs that is as they came through big time for backers this week.

Underdogs went an impressive 9-3 against the spread Sunday, a success rate of 75 percent. Dogs are now 77-79-4 ATS for the season.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 17


Cold and windy forecast in Nashville

It will be a cold and windy night in Nashville when the Tennessee Titans host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

Temperatures will be chilly in the mid 20's around kickoff with a brisk 13 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern end zone.

The Titans are currently 6.5-point home dogs against the Steelers, with the total sitting at 45.5.