Announcement

**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:17 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Colts favored versus visiting Patriots

A few weeks ago, New England was 2-2 SU following a 41-14 whitewashing at the hands of the host Kansas City Chiefs, and on national TV, no less. Some were wondering if maybe the Patriots’ better days were behind them.

Well, apparently not. Tom Brady & Co. are coming off their bye week with five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS) and lead the AFC at 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). Prior to the bye, the Pats thumped defending AFC champion Denver 43-21 as a 3-point home underdog on Nov. 2.

New England will be back in prime time for a Sunday night matchup at Indianapolis (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS), which has also rebounded nicely after losing its first two games, going on a 6-1 SU and ATS tear. The Colts are also fresh off their bye week, after ripping the host New York Giants 40-24 laying 3 points on Nov. 3.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, made the Colts a 2.5-point favorite.

“I’d say it’s hard to bet against the Pats right now given their recent success, but Indy is pretty hot too,” Lester said. “Still, I’m expecting this number to come down at some point.”

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle hasn’t looked anything like the team that rolled Peyton Manning and Denver in the Super Bowl. On Sunday, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) had their hands full with the New York Giants until putting up 21 fourth-quarter points to win 38-17 as a 9-point home fave.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is quietly getting its season back on track, having won its last four in a row and six of its last seven SU and ATS. The Chiefs (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) edged Buffalo 17-13 catching 2 points on the road Sunday.

“The Seahawks get a taste of their own medicine, as Arrowhead Stadium still provides a great home-field edge,” Lester said. “With two salty defenses on the field, points will come at a premium. This is a tough game to handicap in my opinion, but I’d lean toward the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona might seem like this season’s surprise team, with its 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS record, but recall the Cardinals won 10 games last year, narrowly missing the playoffs. That said, the job could get a lot harder after quarterback Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury in Sunday’s 31-14 win over St. Louis – a game the Cards, 7-point favorites, didn’t lead until the fourth quarter

Detroit (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) leads the NFC North after posting four consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 20-16 victory laying 3 points against visiting Miami.

“A couple of sparkling records, but I don’t think either team is as good as their win column suggests,” Lester said. “We know what we’re getting with Drew Stanton if Palmer can’t play, but we’ll hold off on sending out a line until Palmer’s status is confirmed. If he’s out, the Cardinals will be very short chalk or a pick ‘em.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

The Mark Sanchez era in Philly is well underway, while quarterback Nick Foles recuperates from an injured collarbone. Sanchez and the Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) still have some work to do before focusing on the Packers, as they wrap up Week 10 in a Monday night game at home against Carolina.

Green Bay (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) rebounded from a blowout loss at New Orleans by boatracing the Chicago Bears in the Sunday night game. The Packers led 42-0 at halftime – on six Aaron Rodgers TD passes – en route to a 55-14 shellacking as a 9.5-point favorite.

“I’m very interested to see how Mark Sanchez performs on Monday night, but as I’ve said before, he should be able to limit mistakes in Chip Kelly’s offense,” Lester said. “If nothing major happens personnel- or performance-wise, then we’ll make the Packers between 4- and 6-point favorites.”

**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:18 AM

NFL line watch: Raiders-Chargers a feast for Over bettors

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

The Patriots (7-2) have risen to the top of many power rankings but really don’t have a signature road win. Getting this one would be a huge boost, especially with post-Thanksgiving games at Green Bay and San Diego still to come. Both the Pats and Colts (6-3) are coming off their bye week and should be rested and prepared. The line opened at Indy -2.5 and figures to sit there barring any news involving Tom Brady or Andrew Luck. Two things to look for here are New England’s inability to run the ball effectively since Stevan Ridley went down, and the Colts’ propensity to turn the ball over. Unless some sharps throw in some last money, this line should set in cement, so bet it now whichever way you want to go.

Spread to wait on

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)

The Browns are in the conversation again for the first time in decades, and the Dog Pound is giddy at the thought that Cleveland could actually win the AFC North. The line in this one opened at Browns -3 and bettors have been pounding Cleveland over a Houston team that has lost four of its last five. The Texans have won twice on the road, but they came at Oakland (season opener) and at Tennessee. If the money remains on Cleveland through mid-week, books may be forced to move it to 3.5 to balance things out. So if you like Houston at 3.5, hang on a bit and you might get your wish by Thursday or Friday. Or perhaps even a few hours before kickoff.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (44)

The Chargers have had a week off to think about that embarrassing 37-0 defeat in Miami, and figure to have spent some time working on their offense. Right on cue the winless Oakland Raiders come to down, fresh off their own 41-17 loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Rest assured San Diego won’t be shut out for a second straight game. In fact, at minimum the Chargers should be in the mid- to high-30s against an Oakland team that is on the fast track to an 0-16 season. This one should be a feast for over players, assuming the Raiders can reach the end zone once or twice.

**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:18 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Buffalo at Miami
The Bills (3-1 SU on the road) head to Miami on Thursday night to face a Dolphins team that is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13

Game 309-310: Buffalo at Miami (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.783; Miami 139.312
Dunkel Line: Miami by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 5; 42
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 451-452: Houston at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 128.648; Cleveland 137.022
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3); Over

Game 453-454: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.309; Chicago 123.689
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Philadelphia at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.542; Green Bay 143.011
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Seattle at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.105; Kansas City 142.477
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Under

Game 459-460:Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.468; Carolina 126.238
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2); Over

Game 461-462: Cincinnati at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.695; New Orleans 137.678
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10; 55
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Tampa Bay at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 124.050; Washington 128.630
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7 1/2); Under

Game 465-466: Denver at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.264; St. Louis 129.449
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12; 54
Vegas Line: Denver by 9; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-9); Over

Game 467-468: San Francisco at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 132.885; NY Giants 130.673
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+4 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.438; San Diego 139.575
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 51
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Over

Game 471-472: Detroit at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.575; Arizona 134.439
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 38
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: New England at Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 143.932; Indianapolis 141.392
Dunkel Line: New England by 2 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17

Game 475-476: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.419; Tennessee 124.067
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:19 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 13

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BUFFALO (5 - 4) at MIAMI (5 - 4) - 11/13/2014, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 16

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HOUSTON (4 - 5) at CLEVELAND (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 2) at GREEN BAY (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 3 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 54-84 ATS (-38.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-40 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (7 - 2) at ST LOUIS (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 139-177 ATS (-55.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 139-177 ATS (-55.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 4) at NY GIANTS (3 - 6) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 30-57 ATS (-32.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (0 - 9) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (7 - 2) at ARIZONA (8 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) - 11/16/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-48 ATS (+30.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 163-125 ATS (+25.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 101-72 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 17

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at TENNESSEE (2 - 7) - 11/17/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 93-64 ATS (+22.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:19 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 13

Buffalo at Miami, 8:25 ET
Buffalo: 4-13 ATS coming off a home game
Miami: 19-8 UNDER against conference opponents

Sunday, Nov. 16

Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Houston: 18-5 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game
Cleveland: 27-9 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 3-13 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less
Chicago: 13-4 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Philadelphia at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 10-2 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better
Green Bay: 8-1 OVER in all games

Seattle at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 6-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
Kansas City: 30-14 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 46-28 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points
Carolina: 29-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

Cincinnati at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 22-10 UNDER in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
New Orleans: 6-17 ATS against AFC North division opponents

Tampa Bay at Washington, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents
Washington: 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Denver at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Denver: 26-12 ATS as a favorite
St Louis: 36-55 ATS off a road loss

San Francisco at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS as a road favorite
NY Giants: 0-6 ATS off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more

Oakland at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 48-71 ATS off a division game
San Diego: 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Detroit: 31-50 ATS off a home win
Arizona: 6-0 ATS against conference opponents

New England at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
New England: 15-5 OVER off a home win
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Monday, Nov. 17

Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 93-64 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS off a road game

**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:20 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 13

8:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

Sunday, November 16

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NEW ORLEANS
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
San Francisco is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-11-1 SU in its last 14 games ,on the road
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Carolina is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CLEVELAND
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. KANSAS CITY
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Oakland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:25 PM
DETROIT vs. ARIZONA
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing Detroit

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. GREEN BAY
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
New England is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Monday, November 17

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. TENNESSEE
Pittsburgh is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Tennessee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh

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**Udog** · 11-13-2014, 09:24 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Thursday
Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (5-4)-- Bills (-1) won first meeting 29-10 in Week 2, running a kick back for TD and two takeaways leading to 22-yard edge in field poistion. Season series has been split three of last five years; Bills lost four of last six visits here, with all four losses by 9+ points. In last four games, Bills have been -3/-4/+6/-2 in turnover ratio; they've won three of four road games (dog in all four) with only loss at Houston, 23-17. Miami won four of last six games, with all four wins by 13+ points; they're 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as HFs. Dolphins won field position in last seven games, are 5-1 when they get 2+ takeaways, 0-3 otherwise. Bills have 13 giveaways (-3) in last three games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, 4-0 in Miami's last four. Losing LT Albert is very bad news for Miami offense.

NFL

Thursday, November 13

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Dolphins
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5, 42)

After suffering heart-breaking setbacks in their last outings, the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills battle for playoff survival when they meet in Miami on Thursday night. The Dolphins dropped a narrow decision to Detroit on Sunday when Matt Stafford threw a touchdown pass with 29 seconds to play. The Bills blew a fourth-quarter lead of their own after a muffed a punt proved costly in a 17-13 loss to the Chiefs.

It is a crucial affair as both teams trail New England by two games in the AFC East standings. Including a 29-10 decision in Week 2, the Dolphins have lost three straight to the Bills, their longest losing streak since going 0-4 from 2006-07. Points could be tough to come by as Miami ranks fifth and Buffalo is seventh in total defense.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL.

LINE HISTORY: After opening the Dolphins at -5, the line has jumped back and forth between that number and -5.5, where it currently sits. The total opened at 42.5 and has moved down slightly to 42.

INJURY REPORT: Bills - WR Marcus Easley (questionable Thursday, knee), CB Ron Brooks (questionable Thursday, groin), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable Thursday, ribs). Dolphins - G Billy Turner (questionable Thursday, foot), CB Cortland Finnegan (questionable Thursday, neck), G Darren Colledge (questionable Thursday, back), TE Dion Sims (questionable Thursday, toe), LB Kelvin Sheppard (questionable Thursday, hip), LB Koa Misi (questionable Thursday, back).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain at game time with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low 70's with a five mile per hour wind blowing across the field.

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-0.75) - Dolphins (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Dolphins -5.78

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-4, 4-5 ATS, 2-7 O/U): Hampered by groin injuries running back Fred Jackson returned from a two-game absence and totaled 49 yards from scrimmage and rookie sensation Sammy Watkins struggled against the Chiefs on Sunday. Watkins hauled in just 4-of-10 targets for 27 yards after amassing 279 yards his prior two games and he totaled 117 yards and a score in the team's first meeting. E.J. Manuel was under center for Buffalo when the Bills beat the Dolphins earlier in the season but Kyle Orton has completed 65.6 percent of his passes and is 3-2 since taking over.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (5-4, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Miami lost Knowshon Moreno to a season-ending ACL injury in the third week of the season. Since then Lamar Miller has excelled but he entered last week's game battling a shoulder injury and had five only touches for six total yards in the contest. Miller says he'll play on Thursday which will take some of the burden off improving quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has thrown 15 scoring passes and also become a threat with his legs rushing for 245 yards on the season.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: Almost 58 percent of wagers are backing the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites.

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**Udog** · 11-14-2014, 05:44 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3, 41.5)

Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien vs. Browns’ QB Brian Hoyer

Rarely do you have a head coach that knows this much about the opposing quarterback. But, in the case of Bill O’Brien and Brian Hoyer, the Browns QB might not be in the league if it wasn’t for the Texans’ skip.

O’Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator in 2009, worked out Hoyer in East Lansing prior to that year’s draft. And when Hoyer went undrafted, it was O’Brien who gave him a shot at making New England’s roster. He worked alongside Hoyer as a backup to Tom Brady and credited his career to the Houston head coach when asked about their relationship this week.

But the lovefest will quickly get put aside when the whistle blows Sunday. The Texans desperately need a win – losing four of their last five – and O’Brien will have no qualms about sharing all of Hoyer’s strengths and especially his weaknesses with Houston’s defense, which thrives on turnovers. The Texans have 21 takeaways on the year, with 10 of those coming via interceptions.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 42.5)

Seahawks’ third-down defense vs. Chiefs’ third-down offense

The Seahawks defense is a shell of its former Super Bowl self, especially when it comes to ushering opponents off the field. Last season, Seattle allowed foes to convert on only 34.92 percent of their third downs - 23.53 percent in the playoffs. That’s ballooned to 43.33 percent in 2014 – ranking 10th worst in the NFL.

The Chiefs possess the prototypical offense to breakdown the Seattle stop unit. Kansas City combines a potent ground game with a dink-and-dump passing attack from Alex Smith, who is also mobile enough to keep the chains moving with his legs.

Smith has slowly ushered the offense down the field by throwing underneath the coverage, hitting TEs Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano as well as WR Dwayne Bowe for big strikes on third downs. Kansas City is third in the NFL in converting on third down this season, with a 48.74 percent success rate, and is sixth in time of possession with an average TOP of 31:39.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5, 45.5)

Raiders’ red-zone efficiency vs. Chargers’ recent red-zone defense

The Silver and Black don’t get too many cracks at the end zone this season. But when the Raiders do sniff paydirt, they make the most out of it. Oakland leads the NFL in touchdown red-zone efficiency, putting up six points instead of settling for three 80 percent of the time.

The one hitch in that stat is that the Raiders have only been inside the 20-yard line just 15 times this season – scoring a TD on 12 of those opportunities. Oakland scored a touchdown on both of its trips to the red zone versus Denver last week and went 2 for 2 for two TDs in the red zone – both one-yard passes to Mychal Rivera – versus the Seahawks the week before.

San Diego is coming off the bye after losing three straight contests. The Bolts couldn’t stop opponents from scoring – no matter where on the field – giving up 95 totals points in that span. The Chargers watched Kansas City, Denver and Miami score nine combined red-zone touchdowns during this skid and rank dead last in red-zone TD defense, allowing foes to find paydirt on 70.83 percent of their trips inside the San Diego 20-yard line.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 57.3)

Patriots’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Colts’ RB Ahmad Bradshaw

There will be plenty of big plays when Tom Brady and Andrew Luck get into a passing-game pissing contests on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. But it will be the short throws that could do the most damage as far as the Colts and Pats are concerned.

Indianapolis has one of the better pass-catching running backs in the NFL with Ahmad Bradshaw reeling in 34 catches for 293 yards and six TD catches. Those receiving scores put the veteran back on par with such top-tier WRs as Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Kelvin Benjamin, and Mike Wallace. New England knows all about Bradshaw, who posted 91 total yards of offense and a touchdown versus the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI – coincidentally inside Lucas Oil Stadium back in 2012.

New England has shown a weakness to receiving running backs this season. The Patriots allowed Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, watched Chicago RB Matt Forte post 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.

**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 08:12 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Texans (4-5) @ Browns (6-3)-- Mallett gets first start for Houston after they went 1-4 in last five pre-bye games, losing last game 31-21 to Eagles despite a +3 turnover ratio. Red-hot Browns had three extra days to prep after beating Bengals for third win in row, allowing 11 ppg; they're 4-1 at home, 2-1 as HF, with home wins by 2-21-10-5 points. Texans are 2-3 on road, 1-1 as road dogs, with road losses by 13-3-7; road wins were at Raiders/Titans. Houston won four of last five series games, but lost two of last three in Cleveland- last time they were here was '08. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-2-1; AFC South underdogs are 5-9. Last five Cleveland games stayed under total; last four Houston games went over.

Vikings (4-5) @ Bears (3-6)-- Chicago is first team since 1923 to allow 50+ points in consecutive games; they've lost five of last six games, losing all three home games by 3-21-13 points. Bears allowed 11 TDs on opponents' last 21 drives. Minnesota lost last six visits to Windy City, with three of last four by 14+. Vikings' last three games were decided by total of 10 points; they're 3-2 as road dogs, losing by 23-32-1, but one of wins was with Peterson at RB. Since 2007, Bears are 13-24-3 as home faves- they have only one takeaway (-7) in their last three games. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Five of last seven Chicago games went over; three of last four Viking games stayed under.

Eagles (7-2) @ Packers (6-3)-- Green Bay won five of last six games; they're 3-1 as HF this year, winning at Lambeau by 7-32-21-41 points, scoring 16 TDs on last 35 drives at home. Pack won three of last four series games, with all three wins by seven or less points. Eagles have short week after easy win Monday; they've won four of last five games, are 2-2 on road (1-1-1 as AU) with three of four games decided by five or less points- this is their third road game in last four weeks. Philly scored two TDs on 24 drives in its two losses, 21 on 83 drives in wins. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-10-1 vs spread. Eight of nine Packer games, five of last eight Eagle games went over total. Packers are 26-15 in last 41 games as home favorite. Check the weather.

Seahawks (6-3) @ Chiefs (6-3)-- KC won six of last seven games after 0-2 start; they're 2-1 as home favorite, winning last three at Arrowhead by 27-27-14 points. Chiefs won five of last seven series games; Seattle lost last three visits here, losing by 7-12-7. KC ran ball for 134.3 ypg in four games since bye; Seattle NT Mebane tore hamstring, is out for year, which hurts Seattle run defense. Seahawks are 2-2 on road; they allowed 28+ points in all three losses, are 6-0 allowing less than 28- opponents were 24-53 on 3rd down (45.2%) in losses, 16-49 (32.7%) in last four wins. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 vs spread. Four of last five Seattle games went over; last five Chief games stayed under.

Falcons (3-6) @ Panthers (3-6-1)-- 24 of 32 NFL teams have a #1 draft pick playing at OT; none of Carolina's tackles were even drafted, which helps explain why Newton is getting pounded every week. Panthers are 1-6-1 in last eight games after 2-0 start; they scored one TD on last 18 drives at home, losing 13-9/28-10 in last two home games, and are limping into late bye next week. Falcons are 3-0 in division games, scoring 40 ppg with wins by 3-42-10. Carolina won last three series games, by 10-1-24; Falcons lost 30-20/34-10 in last two visits here. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last four Atlanta games stayed under.

Bengals (5-3-1) @ Saints (4-5)-- Cincy had three extra prep days after dismal 24-3 loss to Cleveland last week; Bengals lost last two road games 43-17/27-0- they play five of last seven games on road. Since '09, road teams that played previous three games on the road are 31-22 vs spread. Under-.500 Saints are actually in first place; they are 3-1 at home, winning by 11-6-21 points, but are 2-4 in non-division games, and turned ball 14 times in last six games (-5). Cincy is 17-7-2 vs spread in last 26 games vs NFC teams. Twice in last four games, Bengals didn't score offensive TD. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; NFC South favorites are 4-7. Six of nine Saint games, four of last six Bengal games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-8) @ Washington (3-6)-- Tampa was shut out in first half in four of nine games this year, outscored 148-47 in all first halves; Bucs covered all three Sunday road games, winning SU at Pitt, losing in OT in Superdome, by 5 at Cleveland (they lost at Atlanta 56-14 on a Thursday). Since '06, Skins are 10-21 as home favorites. Washington is 2-2 at home, beating Jaguars/Titans; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. Bucs are 3-2 in last five series games, with four of those decided by 3 or less points. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 this year; NFC South road dogs are 4-6. Last three Tampa games stayed under total. Washington has one win by more than 3 points, 41-10 over Jacksonville in Week 2.

Broncos (7-2) @ Rams (3-6)-- Rams gave up two defensive TDs when they trailed at Arizona 17-14 late in game, so Davis is benched for 34-year old backup Hill, who will protect ball better. Rams allowed 8 TDs on defense/specials this year; you can't win that way. St Louis has 16 sacks in last four games, after having one in first five. Denver brought Incognito in for interview last week, so they have OL issues, but their last five wins are all by 14+ points. Broncos are 1-2 on carpet, but losses were to Seahawks, Patriots. Last six Denver games and five of last seven St Louis tilts went over the total. Fisher's Titans were 6-13 vs Manning when both were in AFC South. Since 2010, NFL home teams that played previous three games on road are 5-13-1 vs spread, 3-9-1 if they're the underdog.

49ers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)-- 49ers hit 4th-and-10 play in last 2:00 last week to get into FG range and force OT, where they forced TO, kicked FG and avoided 4-5 start; in five wins, they're +10 in turnovers, -4 in four losses. Giants lost last four games, allowing an average of 34.5 ppg; Seattle ran ball for 350 yards against them last week, in game Big Blue led most of way. Niners lose LB Willis (toe) for year, get Smith (suspension) back here; they're 3-2 on road, losing at Denver/Arizona, with wins by 11-14-3 points. 49ers are 2-4-1 as favorites, Giants are 2-6 as underdogs. Team that won field position is 9-0 in Giant games this year. 49ers are 3-0 on artificial turf, scoring 28.7 ppg. Over is 3-1 in last four Niner games, 3-0 in last three Giant games.

Raiders (0-9) @ Chargers (5-4)-- San Diego limped into its bye with banged-up OL and three consecutive losses, losing last game 37-0 at Miami; their last win was at Oakland 31-28 (-7) in Week 7, when Raiders had 10-yard edge in field position but lost-- teams with 10+-yard edge are 50-1 in NFL this year. Oakland lost 18 of last 23 games to the Chargers, lost last two visits to San Diego 24-21/26-13; they're 2-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 5-7-10-6 points. Three of their last four losses are by 10 points or more. Chargers are 2-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 9-19-31 points; they have zero takeaways (-7) in last three games, and were outrushed 425-180. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 11-14 vs spread.

Lions (7-2) @ Cardinals (8-1)-- Palmer is out for year but Stanton started in wins over Giants/49ers in Weeks 2-3; he is more than capable. Arizona won/covered its last five games, scoring two defensive TDs in 1:30 to break game open last week. Cardinals are 2-1 as home favorites, winning all five home games by 1-9-10-4-17 points. Lions won last four games, pulling out last three in last minute; they lost only game they played on grass this year, 24-7 at Carolina in Week 2. Arizona won its last five games vs Detroit, with four of five wins in desert, where Lions lost last seven visits, with five of losses by 7 or less points. Arizona is +8 in turnovers in its last three home games. Last eight Detroit games, three of last four Arizona games stayed under total.

Patriots (7-2) @ Colts (6-3)-- Colts won/covered six of last seven games, Patriots won last five games (4-1 vs spread); this is their first road game in five weeks. NE is 7-0 on turf, 0-2 on grass; they won last four series games, beating Colts 44-23 LY in playoffs. Home side won last six series games; Pats lost last two in Indy 18-15/35-34. NE's last five visits here were all decided by 4 or less points, but last visit here was in '09. Colts won last three home games by 24-7-27 points; this is sixth game in row they're favored by less than four points. Healthy Gronkowski made NE offense a beast; NE turned ball over once in last five games, though they lost two of last three post-bye games. Last six Patriot games, six of last eight Indy games went over total.

Steelers (6-4) @ Titans (2-7)-- Pitt laid egg in Swamp last week after Big Ben tossed 12 TD passes in last two home games; Steelers are 2-3 on road, beating Panthers/Jaguars- all three of their losses are on carpet- they're 6-1 on grass, but lost four of last five trips here, losing 26-23/16-9 to Tennessee last two years. Titans scored 17 or less points in last four games, losing last three by 2-14-14 points; they averaged 6.7/4.5 ypa in first two Mettenberger starts, but defense also had no takeaways in those games. Since '06, Steelers are 14-25-1 as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Coming into this week, over is 23-8 in NFL primetime games. Steelers have their bye week after this game; Titans had bye two weeks ago, one of few edges they have in this game.

**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 08:16 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 16

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Sunday Night Football: Patriots at Colts
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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 57.5)

Andrew Luck is on the fast track to greatness but he will get a close-up view of what it looks like when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. Luck leads the league in passing yards and has guided the AFC South-leading Colts to six wins in seven games, but he faces a hotter team in the Patriots, who have ripped off five consecutive victories to move to the top of the AFC East. Luck is 0-2 versus New England, including a playoff loss last season.

Luck described two-time Super Bowl MVP Brady as a "master of his craft," but the Patriots quarterback was equally effusive in his praise of the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2012. "Their offense is doing a great job this year," Brady said of Luck and the Colts. "They score a lot of points, especially at home, and he's kind of the ringleader." With each team coming off a bye, it figures to be an offensive slugfest with Indianapolis rolling up a league-best 32.2 points per game and New England ranked third at 31.2.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened at -2.5, but quickly moved to -3 where it has sat all week long. The total has done the same thing as the spread, opening at 57 then jumping to 57.5

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - OL Cameron Fleming (Ques-Finger) Colts - DT Arthur Jones (Out-Ankle), LB Erik Walden (Ques-Hip)

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-4.75) + Colts (-5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -3.75

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 O/U): New England has rebounded from a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City in Week 4 with a vengeance, rolling up an average of 40.2 points during its winning streak that was capped with a dominating 43-21 victory over Peyton Manning and Denver prior to the bye. Brady has 18 touchdowns versus one interception during that span and his favorite target has been tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has 36 catches, three 100-yard games and five of his eight scoring receptions during the winning streak. The Patriots are still trying to cobble together a running game following a season-ending knee injury to Stevan Ridley, but the addition of Brandon Browner opposite star cornerback Darrelle Revis helped them limit Chicago and Denver to seven first-half points in the past two games.

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Luck bounced back from a 51-34 defeat in Pittsburgh with a superb effort against the New York Giants, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns - his eighth 300-yard game of the season and seventh in a row. Luck has gone over 300 yards in both his career matchups against New England, but he's also been intercepted seven times - including four picks in a 43-22 postseason setback in January. T.Y. Hilton has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games and needs 63 yards to reach 1,000 for the second straight season while Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson have provided a 1-2 punch at running back with a combined 812 yards rushing and 55 catches. Indy's defense struggled in its last two, allowing nearly 900 yards through the air.

TRENDS:

*Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
*Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
*Over is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games overall.
*Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: As of Saturday evening, 58 percent of bettors were supporting the Pats.

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**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 08:24 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 16

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle - Prob Sun

Lynch has a calf injury but is expected to play Sunday against the Chiefs.

Chargers place CB Verrett on IR

The San Diego Chargers placed rookie cornerback Jason Verrett on season-ending injured reserve, the team announced Saturday.

Verrett, a first-round draft pick, had 19 tackles and one interception in six games (four starts) this season. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury four about a month, and aggravated the injury three weeks ago. He had already been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders.

Brandon Flowers and Shareece Wright are considered the Chargers' top cornerbacks now that Verrett is done for the season.

Also, the Chargers activated outside linebacker Melvin Ingram from injured reserve/designated for return and signed rookie safety Adrian Phillips. In addition, the Chargers released linebacker Cordarro Law.

Hester, Douglas Questionable Against Panthers

The Falcons listed three players as questionable ahead of Sunday's Week 11 tilt vs. Carolina. The Falcons delivered their final injury report for the Panthers game, and there are a handful of familiar names who will be listed as having a 50% or worse chance of playing for the game ahead.

Colts Arthur Jones Ruled Out for Sunday's Game

Today the Colts concluded their final day of media availability before they take on the New England Patriots this Sunday night, and with it comes the official injury report. The Colts have ruled out defensive lineman Arthur Jones (ankle) and listed offensive lineman Gosder Cherilus (groin) as questionable for the game.

Arian Foster, Houston - Out Sun

Foster left the last game with a groin injury and will not play Sunday against the Browns.

Browns' Taylor out for season

Cleveland Browns defensive lineman Phil Taylor will be placed on season-ending injury reserve because of a knee injury, head coach Mike Pettine said Friday.

Taylor had arthroscopic surgery on his knee in October, but this injury is unrelated to that.

The 337-pound Taylor returned to action last week after missing a month following the surgery. He helped control the Cincinnati Bengals' ground game in Sunday's contest.

However, the Browns' run defense may suffer with Taylor sidelined again.

The Browns rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (134.2) and 31st in yards per carry allowed.

Pettine also noted tight end Jordan Cameron's status is uncertain because of concussion issues. It's unclear whether Cameron will return this season.

**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 08:26 PM

Over the winner when NFL totals reach record highs

Scoring in the NFL is rising with every snap. As of Week 10, the average total points scored per game is 46.68. So it’s no surprise football bettors are tackling a few sky-high totals in Week 11.

There are four Over/Under numbers of 50 points or more on the board Sunday: Cincinnati-New Orleans (50.5), Denver-St. Louis (50.5), Philadelphia-Green Bay (54.5) and New England-Indianapolis (57.5). The latter two games have totals that rank among the highest Over/Unders of the past 10 seasons.

The 54.5-point number for Eagles-Packers is tied for the 23rd-highest total since 2005, while the 57.5-point total for Patriots-Colts sits tied for the third-highest Over/Under in an NFL game in the past 10 seasons.

Since 2005, there have been 66 games with totals of 53 points or more and oddsmakers have done a good job balancing the results on those contests, with a dead-even 33-33 Over/Under count. However, when a game dictates a larger number, it’s for a reason.

The five NFL games with totals of 57 points or more in that span are a profitable 4-1 O/U heading into Week 11. Last season featured two of those monstrous numbers: Philadelphia-Denver (57.5) in Week 4 (Broncos 52, Eagles 20) and Washington-Denver (58.5) in Week 8 (Broncos 45, Redskins 21).

As a testament to the rapid increase in scoring, 28 of the 66 games (42 percent) with totals of 53 points or more since 2005 have been played in the past two years (15-13 O/U), with the 2014 regular season already boasting six games with 53-plus-point numbers – those games going a collective 5-1 O/U.

The 2013 regular season featured 19 games with an Over/Under of 53 points or greater, those potential shootouts finishing 10-9 O/U. And, to prove that defense does indeed win championships, the three playoff games with totals of 53-plus all played Under those lofty numbers. The average score was just over 43 points.

Note: The largest NFL total since 2005 was a 59.5-point number when the Detroit Lions played the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Wildcard Round of the 2011-12 NFL season. The Saints won 45-28, topping the total by 13.5 points.

**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 09:07 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 16

Books hope for low-scoring affair in Sunday nighter

The marquee game on the Week 11 board just so happens to be the Sunday night primetime game, which features the New England Patriots visiting the Indianapolis Colts.

At most shops, the Colts opened as 3-point home favorites and the total opened at 56. The spread has remained while the total has inched north with bettors loving a high-scoring game with two prolific quarterbacks slinging the ball on national television.

According to John Lester, Senior Lines Manager for BookMaker.eu, a significant amount of action on the Over has his book hoping for a boring game.

"The total has moved upward as everyone is aware of these primetime games going over so nearly 87 percent of our wagers are on the over," Lester tells Covers. "We’d love to see a plodding affair."

Snow fall in store as Browns host Texans

The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans Sunday afternoon and weather forecasts are predicting a chilly day with a chance of snowfall.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of snow. In addition, wind will blow toward the northeast endzone at around 10 mph.

Presently, the Browns are 3.5-point home favorites for the matchup and the total is 41 - the lowest on the board Sunday.

Frigid temps to welcome Seahawks to Arrowhead

The Seattle Seahawks will have more than the Kansas City Chiefs to deal with as the weather outlook features frigid temperatures for Sunday's showdown at Arrowhead Stadium.

As of Saturday evening, forecasts call for temperatures in the mid-20s during game time, and wind blowing toward the southeast endzone at roughly six mph.

The Chiefs are presently 1-point home faves and the total sits at 42.

Falcons becoming a boon for Under bettors

If you've been backing the Under in past Atlanta Falcons games, you've been collecting some nice profits.

The Under is 5-0 in the Falcons' last five matchups. Matt Ryan's crew travel to Raleigh for a date with Cam Newton and division rival Carolina Sunday.

Oddsmakers presently have the Panthers as slight +1 home dogs. The total is sitting at 46.5.

Chiefs, Seahawks heading in different directions ATS

The Seattle Seahawks and the Kansas City Chiefs come into their Week 11 matchup going two different ways for their spread bettors.

The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four contests, while the Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five.

K.C. is currently 1-point home faves with an O/U of 42 for the affair.

Saints must return to winning ways at home

If the New Orleans Saints are to salvage any hopes of a division crown or postseason appearance, then resuming their home dominance is vital. The Saints were beaten by the San Francisco 49ers 27-24 in overtime at home in Week 10, suffering their first defeat in their last 12 home games.

Quarterback Drew Brees has been formidable on home turf, throwing for 4,102 yards and 37 touchdowns against just eight interceptions in the Big Easy over those 12 games. They have a record of 9-3 against the spread in those 12 home games.

New Orleans will look to register another in the "win" column Sunday as it welcomes the Cincinnati Bengals to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Sunday. They are currently 7-point home favorites for the matchup.

**Udog** · 11-15-2014, 09:10 PM

NFL roundup: Peterson misses league hearing

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson did not appear at a scheduled disciplinary hearing with the NFL on Friday after agreeing to attend last week, according to ESPN.

The NFL claimed that Peterson refused to give the league an alternative date for the disciplinary hearing, which stems from his arrest for child abuse.

Friday's meeting was more significant than the conference call scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Monday. The NFL Players Association filed an expedited, non-injury grievance on behalf of Peterson, requesting removal from the commissioner's exempt list.

The Friday meeting was originally scheduled last Tuesday, but the NFLPA told the league on Thursday that it was not available, according to the report.

NFLPA spokesperson George Atallah said Peterson's attorney, Rusty Hardin, provided the league with a letter claiming that it is against Texas state law to give the NFL the requested documents. The incident that led to Peterson's arrest occurred in Texas.

Peterson has not played for the Vikings since Week 1 but is being paid his full salary -- $11.25 million for the 2014 season -- while away from the team. On Nov. 4 in Montgomery County, Texas, Peterson pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor assault charge, was placed on probation and ordered to pay a $4,000 fine. The charge was reduced from felony child abuse for an incident in which Peterson admittedly used a tree branch to whip his 4-year-old son.

---Houston Texans running back Arian Foster will not play Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

Foster was downgraded from questionable to out Saturday with a groin injury.

Foster was injured two weeks ago against the Philadelphia Eagles. He did not practice after the Texans' bye week.

---The San Francisco 49ers added linebacker Aldon Smith to the 53-man roster from the exempt list.

Smith was suspended in August for nine games for violating the NFL's policy on personal conduct and substance abuse.

To make room for Smith on the roster, the 49ers placed defensive back Jimmie Ward on injured reserve.

---The San Diego Chargers placed rookie cornerback Jason Verrett on season-ending injured reserve.

Verrett, a first-round draft pick, had 19 tackles and one interception in six games (four starts) this season. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury four about a month, and aggravated the injury three weeks ago.

The Chargers also activated outside linebacker Melvin Ingram from injured reserve/designated for return and signed rookie safety Adrian Phillips. In addition, the Chargers released linebacker Cordarro Law.

---The New York Giants placed running back Peyton Hillis on season-ending injured reserve with a concussion.

Hillis was injured last Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. It is the second consecutive season that Hillis has been sidelined with a concussion. He missed a game last December, also against the Seahawks.

The Giants promoted linebacker Justin Anderson from the practice squad to take the roster spot.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 13 - Monday, November 17)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 13 - Monday, November 17)

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