NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 30 - Monday, November 3)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 2


Cold, windy day in store for Cleveland

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have more than the Cleveland Browns to deal with Sunday. Weather in Cleveland will be very un-Florida like as temperatures will dip to the low-40s under partly cloudy skies by gametime.

Furthermore, wind will blow across the field around 10 mph during the game.

The Browns are currently 7-point favorites with the Bucs in town.


Possibility of rain as Seahawks host Raiders

Weather could play a factor in Seattle as the Seahawks host the Oakland Raiders Sunday.

Forecasts are calling for a 44 percent chance of rain leading up to and during gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-50s and wind will blow toward the north endzone at 6 mph.

The Seahawks are the largest chalk on the board Sunday, currently 14-point favorites with the winless Raiders in town.


Home teams covering in Dallas-Arizona matchups

When the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals have gotten together as of late, it's been the home side coming through for spread bettors.

Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two clubs. They'll renew acquaintances Sunday in Big D.

The 'Boys are currently 2.5-point home faves with an O/U of 44.5.


Jets continue to struggle ATS

The New York Jets (1-7 SU) have had an ugly start to the season, and things haven't been any better for bettors backing the spread in those contests.

The Jets are just 1-5-1 ATS so far this year. Rex Ryan's crew takes on Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday.

The Chiefs are currently 9-point home favorites. The total for the matchup is sitting at 41.5.


Jags on a tear for Under bettors

The Jacksonville Jaguars have participated in a lot of low-scoring games recently, and as a result, Under bettors are cashing in.

The Under is 4-0 in the Jags' past four games. Jacksonville meets the Cincinnati Bengals in Ohio Sunday.

Cincy is currently 10-point home faves with an O/U of 43.5.


Chargers-Dolphins love going Under the total

The San Diego Chargers and the Miami Dolphins have historically been a great Under bet when they collide.

The Under is a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between the two clubs. They'll face off again Sunday in the Sunshine State.

The Dolphins are currently 2.5-point home favorites. The total for the matchup is sitting at 45.

[Udog]

NFL roundup: Romo reportedly has back fractures

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has two fractures in his back but could still play Sunday against the visiting Arizona Cardinals, according to ESPNDallas.com.

Romo was injured during Monday night's loss to the Washington Redskins, but returned to the game. The Cowboys said during the week that Romo only had a contusion.

The team and Romo have said his latest back injury is not related to the disk surgery he had last December and is not a season-ending injury.

Romo reportedly has two fractured transverse process, which is a small bone that sticks out from either side of the vertebrae. Romo has been receiving several hours of treatment throughout the week at home and at the team's facility.

Romo took a knee to the back from Redskins linebacker Keenan Robinson during a sack in the third quarter. X-rays were negative and he returned to the game after receiving a pain-killing injection. He then had a CT scan on Tuesday.

The Cowboys said Friday that Romo's playing status is a game-time decision. Brandon Weeden would start at quarterback if Romo cannot play, with undrafted free agent Dustin Vaughan as the backup. Weeden replaced Romo while he was out against the Redskins.

---Cowboys defensive tackle Josh Brent signed a one-year contract extension through the 2015 season, ESPN reported Saturday.

According to the report, the deal includes no guaranteed money and a base salary of $745,000.

Brent returned to practice this week for the first time since he killed teammate Jerry Brown in a December 2012 car crash, which involved alcohol. Brent served a 10-game suspension for his role in the accident.

Brent can be removed from the reserve/suspended list in less than two weeks and eligible to play Nov. 23 against the New York Giants.

---Cowboys coach Jason Garrett held a team meeting Saturday over concerns about team chemistry, ESPNDallas.com reported.

Friday, a loud argument between wide receiver Dez Bryant and backup running back Joseph Randle carried over onto the practice field.

Garrett met with the players later that day as well as an angry Josh Brent. He then addressed the subject with the entire team Saturday.

Sources told ESPN that the meeting was tense, and Garrett seriously considered whether Randle should continue to be with the team. Garrett reportedly decided to allow Randle to remain with the team.

---Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne and cornerback Vontae Davis are expected to play Monday night against the New York Giants.

Wayne missed last week's game with a sprained elbow. He was officially listed as probable on the team's injury report Saturday after a second straight day of full practice. Davis was also listed as probable with a knee injury.

Defensive tackle Arthur Jones (ankle) and linebackers Josh McNary (ankle) and Erik Walden (quad) are out.

---Former Buffalo Bills Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly, who announced in September that he is cancer-free, told the Miami Herald that he has a staph infection in his bones.

Kelly said he is undergoing an eight-week treatment for the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection, which includes intravenous antibiotics three times a day. MRSA is a type of staph infection that is resistant to some antibiotics.

In August, Kelly concluded months of chemotherapy and radiation treatment for jaw cancer and the pain was gone. No evidence of cancer was found after more biopsies in September.

---The New York Jets promoted quarterback Matt Simms from the practice squad to the active roster and cut wide receiver Chris Owusu.

Simms could back up Michael Vick on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Former starter Geno Smith was benched last week during a poor performance against the Buffalo Bills. Smith also sustained a shoulder injury, which may have contributed to throwing three interceptions on consecutive drives. He is listed on the team's injury report as questionable.

Cornerback Darrin Walls was downgraded to out with a calf injury. He was previously listed as doubtful.

---Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin rejoined the team Saturday following his father's death.

Philbin missed two days of practice. His father died Friday night in Massachusetts. He returned to the team as it completed its preparations for Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers.

---The San Francisco 49ers promoted practice-squad cornerback Leon McFadden to the active roster.

McFadden, a former third-round pick of the Cleveland Browns, had been on the 49ers' practice squad since Sept. 15.

---Safety Phillip Thomas was added to the Washington Redskins' active roster from the practice squad.

To make room for Thomas, the Redskins waived defensive end Clifton Geathers.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 9 line moves

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

The Dallas Cowboys suffered the inevitable letdown on Monday Night Football one week ago. They were media darlings on the heels of a six-game, straight-up winning streak but were dumped 20-17 in overtime by the Washington Redskins. Now they host the hottest team in the NFC. The Cardinals have won three-straight SU and ATS and could be a prime candidate for Sharp bettors.

"We probably opened this a bit high even assuming Romo will play," Lester tells Covers. "Dallas is the ultimate public team but there are plenty of sharps that think the Cardinals can win this outright."

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -9.5, Move: -10, Move: -9

What can you say about the Jets that hasn't already been said? They've dropped seven-straight games since winning their Week 1 opener (looking terrible in doing so, obviously) and at 1-6-1 ATS, are the worst bet in the league.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been a strong play for bettors this season and sit at 5-2 ATS heading into this Week 9 matchup.

"This got as high as -10 but there are still plenty of good gamblers that believe the Jets - with Rex Ryan - should never be double-digit dogs," Lester says.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings - Open: -1, Move: Pick

Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III makes his return under center despite a very solid performance (and win) by Colt McCoy one week ago. Due to RGIII's return to the lineup, the 'Skins could be a favorite of the betting public this week.

"Obviously you've got a lot of the mainstream thinking Robert Griffin III is going to come in and save the 'Skins," Lester said. "I expect this will go off at a Pick."

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots - Open: +3, Move: +3.5, Move: +3

This is easily the marquee game on the Week 9 board, but it's one without a whole lot of line movement up until time of publication. Tom Brady has the all-time edge at the betting window when he and Peyton Manning meet up. Brady has posted a career SU record of 10-5 and ATS record of 7-6-2 in their 15 regular season meetings.

"We haven't seen a lot of movement here," confirms Lester. "The spread ticked up to 3.5 for about 24 hours and then got bet back down to the opener. We're seeing good two-way action and I still contend that the Pats are the right side."

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers - Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: +2

This week's Sunday Night Football matchup features a pair of AFC North rivals as the Steelers host the Ravens. Books opened this one anywhere from a Pick to Steelers -1.5 with the Ravens now favored.

"This spread has seen the full swing from one side to the other," Lester points out. "The early money came in on Pittsburgh and then gradually we've made the Ravens road chalk. I think this closes near a Pick."

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Colts at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+3, 50.5)

The bye week came just in time for the New York Giants, who will attempt to halt a two-game skid when they host Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. Back-to-back road losses to division rivals Philadelphia and Dallas dropped the Giants below .500 and they face a steep climb to get back into the playoff picture in the NFC. "We've got nine games to play as well as we can possibly play," New York coach coach Tom Coughlin said. "I think anybody in that locker room can do that."

The Colts were riding high with a five-game winning streak, but it came to a screeching halt in a 51-34 loss at Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis had allowed 17 points or fewer four times during its five-game run and was coming off a shutout before its defense was shredded by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, allowing six touchdown passes and more than 500 yards through the air. "Just like a great win, you can't let a loss like this linger," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "There's a team sitting and waiting and licking its chops in New York right now who's going to be well-rested."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Giants +3 and it has held at that number. The total has also held firm at 50.5.

INJURY REPORT: Colts - WR Reggie Wayne (elbow), LB D'Qwell Jackson (Probable, toe), CB Vontae Davis (Questionable, knee), LB Erik Walden (Doubtful, hip), S LaRon Landry (eligible, suspension). Giants - T James Brewer (Questionable, back).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (-4.25) + Giants (+1) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -2.25

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS, 6-2 O/U): Indianapolis has a pair of familiar faces in the lineup in ex-Giants Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw. While Nicks has been a non-factor at wideout despite playing in the league's top passing attack, Bradshaw has been an integral part of the offense while sharing time with Trent Richardson in the backfield, rushing for a pair of scores while tying for the team lead with six scoring receptions. Reggie Wayne (elbow) is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week's game and will provide a boost to Luck, who leads the league with 2,731 passing yards and is tied with predecessor Peyton Manning with an NFL-best 22 TDs. The Colts led the AFC in total yards allowed until surrendering a whopping 639 to Pittsburgh.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): New York had won three in a row and rolled up a staggering 105 points in the process, but it was shut out in Philadelphia and unable to keep pace with Dallas prior to the bye week. With leading rusher Rashad Jennings (knee) set to miss his third straight game and leading receiver Victor Cruz lost for the season in the debacle against Philadelphia, rookie first-round pick Odell Beckham Jr. figures to play a bigger role after hauling in a pair of TD passes from Eli Manning versus Dallas. Manning led the league in interceptions (27) last season and threw five more in the first four games, but he hasn't been picked off in the last three. Rookie running back Andre Williams rushed for 110 yards in the past two games while subbing for Jennings.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 15-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last five home games.
* Giants are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 69 percent of wagers are backing the Giants.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 3


Monday Night Football weather update

The Indianapolis Colts will play their fourth outdoor game of the season as they visit the New York Giants on Monday Night Football and temperatures will be chillier than Andrew Luck and Co. are used to.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures to be in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies by game time. There will be a slight wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.