Announcement

**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 07:05 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Manning, Broncos faves at Brady, Patriots

Two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season collide in Week 9 when the Dallas Cowboys play host to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) were expected to struggle when the season opened, but they’ve done anything but, rolling into this contest on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS).

Dallas still has work to do before focusing on Arizona, with the Cowboys wrapping up Week 8 at home against the Washington Redskins Monday.

With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three in a row SU and ATS, including a 24-20 nailbiter over Philadelphia as a 1-point home favorite Sunday. John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, expects to open the Cowboys as 4-point favorites.

“Is it time we start believing in the Arizona Cardinals? I’m not completely sold that they are one of the top teams, but they’re starting to convince me,” Lester said. “Getting (defensive end) Calais Campbell back was huge for them. It’s a short week for the Cowboys, but if everything goes accordingly on Monday night, we’ll probably make them around 4-point favorites.

Denver Broncos (-3) at New England Patriots

It’s Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady for the 16th time, with Brady holding a 10-5 SU edge.

Denver (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) heads into Foxboro with a little extra rest, having dumped San Diego last Thursday 35-21 as a 9-point home favorite – the Broncos’ fourth-straight win and cover. And facing strong teams is pretty much old hat, as Denver has already played six teams that won at least 10 games last year, including five that made the playoffs.

New England (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has a beat-up roster, yet posted its fourth-straight win (3-1 ATS) in a 51-23 shellacking of visiting Chicago as 5.5-point chalk Sunday. Lester likes the Patriots to keep it going.

“There’ll be no shortage of bets for this marquee matchup, and I expect to see good two-way action where the line is,” Lester said. “We got some early money in on the visitors, so we moved to +3.5 (-120) pretty quickly. The public will be on Denver, but I’m guessing we’ll see some sharps taking the points with the Pats, and I think they win.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (pick)

The AFC North is a jumbled mess, making this bitter rivalry game an important one for both teams. Pittsburgh (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has won two in a row SU and ATS, with its offense going ballistic Sunday in a 51-34 upset of Indianapolis as a 5-point home underdog. Baltimore (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell short as a 2.5-point road fave at Cincinnati, losing 27-24.

“Even though the quality isn’t what it used to be, this is still a great matchup every year,” Lester said. “I really wanted to make the Steelers a 1-or 2-point favorite, since I consider the Ravens just slightly better. After the early line movement to -1.5, I was furrowing my eyebrows at some guys around the room.”

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants

Indianapolis played zero defense Sunday at Pittsburgh, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw for an eye-popping 522 yards and six TDs as the Colts – 5-point faves – lost 51-34. Now the Colts (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) have to hit the road again for the Monday night contest.

Meanwhile, the Giants (3-4 SU and ATS) are coming off a much needed bye week after losing at Dallas 31-21 catching 4.5 points.

“At this spread, I’m expecting some sharps to be on the home dog coming off a bye, but I’d be wary to bring it below the key number,” Lester said. “I think the Colts bounce back on Monday night.”

**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 07:07 PM

NFL line watch: Hold out for prime points on Panthers

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had the bye week to figure out things after division losses to the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and has already gone down a point. If you're feeling super charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.

Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2)

Early action is heavy on the Saints, with the public no doubt reacting to New Orleans’ huge victory over the Packers Sunday. And it’s likely to continue on the Saints through midweek, which could melt the number down another half-point and make the Panthers more attractive as we get close to kickoff.

New Orleans is a different team on real grass and has yet to win a game on the road – including losses at Atlanta and Cleveland. To be 0-4 away from home and a favorite against a decent team is a bit unusual, so it might be a good idea to hang loose on this game for a bit.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning tickets after this one.

**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 07:07 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 30

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 71-39 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 2

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
MIAMI is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at CINCINNATI (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 5) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 4) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 100-138 ATS (-51.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-139 ATS (-45.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (6 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-48 ATS (+29.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 162-125 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 3

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 07:08 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, Oct. 30

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Carolina: 16-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

Sunday, Nov. 2

San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 13-27 ATS off a road loss against a division rival
Miami: 37-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS after playing a game at home

Washington at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 2-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 24-11 ATS off a home loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 25-47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Dallas: 16-11 OVER after the first month of the season

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games
New England: 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Oakland at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-20 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in home lined games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 39-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Pittsburgh: 44-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Monday, Nov. 3

Indianapolis at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 24-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
New York: 72-37 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 07:08 PM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 30

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Carolina's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Sunday, November 2

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Arizona is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Arizona
Dallas6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. KANSAS CITY
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Francisco10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games when playing Oakland
See more trends!

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games

Monday, November 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 08:07 PM

NFL
Dunkel

New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints head to Carolina on Thursday night and face a Panthers team that is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Carolina is the pick (+3). according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Carolina (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.460; Carolina 133.769
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2

Game 451-452: San Diego at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.534; Miami 137.978
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 453-454: Jacksonville at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.104; Cincinnati 133.700
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.456; Cleveland 131.497
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Washington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.958; Minnesota 130.481
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Philadelphia at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.073; Houston 133.242
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: NY Jets at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 122.816; Kansas City 143.891
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 21; 45
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-9 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Arizona at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.908; Dallas 135.812
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Under

Game 465-466: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.897; San Francisco 138.657
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Over

Game 467-468: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 142.499; New England 143.484
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.664; Seattle 135.186
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 15; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15); Under

Game 471-472: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.551; Pittsburgh 137.412
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh; Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 473-474: Indianapolis at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.934; NY Giants 131.955
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Under

**Udog** · 10-29-2014, 08:08 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday
Saints (3-4) @ Panthers (3-4-1)—Battle for first in NFC South between teams with sub-.500 records. Saints are 0-4 on road (were favored in three of four), with three losses by 3 or less points; they lost 26-24 (-6.5) at Cleveland in only other outdoor game so far this season. Carolina is 1-4-1 in last six games after its 2-0 start; they scored total of 26 points (2 TD’s on last 20 drives) in last two games, but are 2-2 at home, beating Lions/Bears. Panthers are 0-4 with even/negative turnover ratio, scoring 11.3 ppg in those four games. Saints lost last seven road games overall; they’re 0-7 in last seven games as road favorites. Panthers are 6-5 as home dog under Rivera. Five of last six Carolina games, three of last four Saint games went over total.

**Udog** · 10-30-2014, 08:20 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 30

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Thursday Night Football: Saints at Panthers
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 49)

A vintage performance by Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints back in the playoff picture in the woeful NFC South Division. The Saints, however, are going to have to prove they can win on the road to secure a spot and their next test comes Thursday night when they visit the Carolina Panthers. Brees passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night's win over Green Bay, but New Orleans has dropped seven straight regular-season road games.

Carolina has just one win since beginning the season with back-to-back victories but still finds itself percentage points atop the division thanks to its tie against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The Panthers blew a late lead last week against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle, squandering several opportunities in the red zone in a 13-9 loss. Carolina has won four of the last five games in the series.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 2-point road faves, but are now -2.5. The total opened 48.5 and is up to 49.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - C Jonathan Goodwin (Questionable, leg), RB Khiry Robinson (Questionable, forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (Doubtful, ribs). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (Questionable, ankle), G Amini Silatolu (Questionable, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-2) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-50s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had his best game as a professional last week, rushing for one score and catching a touchdown pass in New Orleans' 44-23 victory. Cooks' performance helped take some of the pressure off tight end Jimmy Graham who is still slowed by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable. New Orleans is ranked second in the NFL in total offense and fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Running back DeAngelo Williams declared himself "ready to roll" for Thursday's game, the first time in four games since he injured an ankle. Williams rushed for 210 yards against the Saints in 2012 and will likely share duties with Jonathan Stewart in the backfield for the Panthers, who rank 27th in rushing offense. Defense has been a problem, however, as Carolina has surrendered at least 37 points four times this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last four games overall.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 64 percent of wagers are supporting the visiting Saints.

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**Udog** · 10-30-2014, 10:55 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 30

Clear skies on tap for Thursday Night Football

It should be a great night for football in Carolina when the Panthers host the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.

here should be clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50's for the game, with a very slight three mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast endzone.

The Panthers are currently -3point home underdogs with the total sitting at 49.

Plenty of line movement in Thursday night matchup

Since opening as a pick'em, the line for the Thursday night matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers has seen plenty of movement. And it has been all towards the Saints.

The Saints have been steadily bet all the way to 3-point road favorites for the NFC South showdown.

New Orleans is winless on the road this season and are just 1-3 against the spread in those games, while Carolina is 2-2 at home and 3-1 ATS.

**Udog** · 10-30-2014, 11:12 AM

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 9 line moves

NFL Week 9 odds have been on the board since late Sunday and have already seen some significant jumps, with wiseguys quickly getting down on those spreads.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: -2

Early action hit the Chargers and moved this line as many as 1.5 points before coming back to Dolphins -2 by midweek. Most books are dealing this between -1.5 and -2 as of Wednesday afternoon. Miami has won back-to-back games and hosts a San Diego team making a cross-country trip to South Beach.

“I don’t think it has the impact nowadays,” Kaminsky says of the Bolts’ West-to-East trek. “What with the ease of travel and all the comforts they have. There used to be a theory of West teams having the edge coming East for late games, but I don’t buy into those things.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -13, Move: -11

The Bengals have fallen out of favor with NFL bettors after a hot start to the season. Cincinnati opened 3-0 SU and ATS and have since posted a 1-2-1 SU mark and covered just once in that span. Bettors played against the Bengals versus Baltimore last week, which ended up being a big positive for the books with Cincy winning 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Wiseguys, however, have been partial to Jacksonville all season, covering in two of the last three weeks.

“We opened Cincinnati -13 and pop, pop, pop on the dog,” says Kaminsky. “The Bengals looked great to start the year. I even thought they were the real deal. Then they went in the tank. That win over Baltimore last Sunday was a big decision for us.”

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: OTB

This spread has yet to see the light of day with books waiting on the Redskins’ QB plans. Robert Griffin III could return under center but with the inspiring performance of third-stringer Colt McCoy against Dallas Monday, there may be no rush to test RG3’s tender ankle.

According to oddsmakers, Washington would be a +1.5 underdog with Griffin in and a +3 pup with McCoy taking snaps Sunday. Kaminsky, however, doesn’t agree with the spread difference between those two players.

“I think +1.5 is too low,” he says. “I think if (Griffin) plays, it should be Redskins +2. If he doesn’t, and they go with McCoy, it should be Redskins +3.”

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Another spread on hold is the line for Sunday’s showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys are being very vague when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury with contradicting reports floating around on the QB’s status.

According to Kaminsky, the line would be Dallas -4 with Romo active and a pick’em if Dallas has to go with backup Brandon Weeden. Despite that swing in possible lines, Romo’s value to the spread isn’t what it used to be.

“I think it’s diminished,” Kaminsky says of Romo’s impact on the odds. “With the way the offensive line is playing and the way DeMarco Murray is running, it’s not what it used to be.”

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots – Open: +3.5, Move: +3

While this line move isn’t the biggest on the Week 9 board, a significant amount of money has come in on New England as a rare underdog at home. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

“We took quite a bit of money on New England already,” says Kaminsky. “We opened Denver -3.5 (-105) and now we’re at Denver -3 (-115). I can’t see it going much further than that, though. The Patriot look good now, but I don’t know how you stop (Peyton) Manning. There aren’t any defense right now that can stop him.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -2, Move: +1

This classic AFC North battle is always entertaining and gets the big stage on Sunday night. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite at home after a dominating performance over the Colts in Week 8. Regardless, bettors are backing the Ravens and have forced books to jump the fence on this spread, making Baltimore road chalk.

“It’s all Baltimore money. And it’s a bit surprising to me,” admits Kaminsky. “I’m not a big fan of Pittsburgh but they’ve had two good wins over Indianapolis and over Houston on Monday night. Baltimore is the better team right now and I guess you have to give them that respect.”

**Udog** · 10-31-2014, 10:42 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 48.5)

Cardinals’ turnover differential vs. Cowboys’ coughing the ball up

Take care of the ball and take away the ball. If you can do those two things, you have a chance to win every game. Arizona does just that. The Cardinals offense has only turned the ball over five times this season, including one interception, while its breakneck defense has forced 14 takeaways (10 interceptions) – second most in the NFL.

Arizona steps into AT&T Stadium looking to cause a little chaos in Jerry’s World against a Dallas team known for its terrible turnovers. The Cowboys have 13 turnovers on the year, which is baffling when you consider their 6-2 record. Five of those turnovers have come from the unsure hands of RB DeMarco Murray, with a few of those bumbles inside the red zone. That’s just taking points off the board.

On top of that, Cowboys QB Tony Romo could take the field with a serious contusion (very bad bruise) to his already brittle back. Romo was mowed over by the Redskins’ zero-pressure blitz Monday night and faces a similar pass rush Sunday. A damaged Romo could panic at the sound of footsteps – something he doesn’t normally do – and force passes into a ball-hawking Cardinals secondary.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 41.5)

Jets' QB Mike Vick vs. Arrowhead Stadium

New York is willing to try anything after suffering through a seven-game losing streak with second-year QB Geno Smith at the wheel. To steal a quote from Michael Caine in The Dark Knight, “You squeezed them, you hammered them to the point of desperation. And in their desperation, they turned to a man they didn't fully understand.”

Enter Mike Vick, who gets the nod under center for the Jets in Week 9, going up against his former coach in Philadelphia, Andy Reid, when the Jets crash land in Kansas City. New York’s offense was having a hard enough time gaining ground with Smith at the helm, but now Vick is thrown in with the first teamers, working with a shallow pool of receivers in which his top target – Percy Harvin – hasn’t even unpacked his bags since being dealt from Seattle.

More importantly, Vick’s chemistry – or lack thereof – with his offensive line will be exposed when the Arrowhead faithful rain down crowd noise on one of the most hated men in sports (Yeah, people haven’t forgotten about that dog fighting shit). The Jets racked up 12 false starts in the first eight games – fourth most in the NFL – and you can only imagine that number will go up Sunday.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 55)

Broncos’ tight end troubles vs. Patriots’ TE Rob Gronkowski

You can’t blame the media for hyping up the next chapter in the “Manning vs. Brady” saga this Sunday. It’s probably the most anticipated matchup behind Mayweather vs. Pacquiao (which we may never see), and Batman vs. Superman (coming to theatres in March 2016). But, when the smoke settles in Gillette Stadium and all the “Omahas” and high-pitched audibles are silent, someone other than a quarterback will be the talk of the league.

This game is setting up for a massive return to glory for New England tight end Rob Gronkowski. “The Gronk” is getting healthier by the snap and is picking up steam in recent weeks. He’s reeled in 411 yards on 27 catches the last four games – more than 15 yards per reception – and has scored seven touchdowns on the season, including three versus Chicago last week when he slapped around the Bears secondary for massive yards after the catch.

Denver’s defense is ramping up the pass rush, which means Brady will be looking to get rid of the ball as soon as possible – targeting No. 87 on most of those dumps. The Broncos have been burned badly by opposing TEs this season. They allowed the Colts’ Dwayne Allen to put up 64 yards on five catches with a TD, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce to go for 84 yards on four receptions, the Jets’ Jace Amaro to post 68 yards on 10 grabs with a score, and just last week Chargers TE Antonio Gates caught five balls for 54 yards and two touchdowns. Be prepare for a surplus of thunderous “Gronk Spikes” in Week 9.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick, 48)

Ravens’ home runs vs. Steelers’ big play problems

If the Steelers were a boxer (fictional or real), they’d be Rocky Balboa. Just like the “Italian Stallion”, Pittsburgh dishes out heavyweight haymakers while absorbing some huge hits as well. It boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL (if last week’s Big 12-like 51-34 final versus Indy wasn’t any indication), totaling 24 passing plays of 25 or more yards (most in the league) and 24 rushing playing of 25 or more.

However, while the Steelers can dish out the home runs, they also give them up. Pittsburgh has allowed 19 passing plays of 25 or more yards and watched opponents break off 32 runs of 25-plus – second most in the NFL. Last week against the Colts, the Black and Yellow gave up scores of 21, 28, and 31 yards. To use more baseball rhetoric, the Ravens are digging into the box and sitting on a tater from the Steelers in Week 9.

Baltimore ranks third in plays of 25 or more yards – 47 behind Pittsburgh’s 48 – with 32 on those coming on the ground. It also has some playmakers through the air in WRs Steve Smith (ninth in yards after the catch with 278) and Torrey Smith (404 yards after the catch last season). On the other side of the ball, Baltimore owns a plus-11 “Big Play Differential” giving up 36 plays of 25-plus yards this season.

**Udog** · 11-02-2014, 07:28 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Chargers (5-3) @ Dolphins (4-3)—San Diego is 0-7 in south Florida since dramatic OT playoff win at Orange Bowl in 1981; they’ve lost eight of last ten with Miami, falling 20-16 (-1.5) here LY when last-minute drive in red zone came up short. Chargers lost last two games after 5-1 start, but had extra time to prep for this after Thursday loss in Denver; Bolts are 5-0 when they score 22+ points, 0-3 when they score less. Dolphins held three of last four foes to 14 or less. AFC West teams are 13-7 vs spread outside division, 6-2 as road dogs; AFC East teams are 8-10, 1-6 as home favorites. Chargers are 7-9-1 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points (2-0 this year); Miami is 9-7-1, but 2-4 if favored. All three Dolphin home games this season went over total.

Jaguars (1-7) @ Bengals (4-2-1)—Jax ran ball for 185/176 yards in last two games, after averaging 69.5 yards on ground in first six games; Jags are 1-3 as road underdogs this year, 21-27 since ’08; only one of their four road losses this year was by less than 17 points (16-14 @ Titans). Bengals won last three series games by 2-10-17 points, in series where home side lost four of last six games. Jax is 4-5 in its history in Cincinnati, with no losses by more than seven points. Cincy is 8-1 vs spread in last ten as home favorites, 2-1 this year, with wins by 14-26-3 points, and tie vs Panthers. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under the total; three of last four Cincy games went over.

Buccaneers (1-6) @ Browns (4-3)—Tampa Bay has been outscored 126-27 in first half of games this year, trailing all seven at half; they were held scoreless in first half four times already. That said, Bucs are 2-1 as road dogs, losing in OT in Superdome, winning at Pittsburgh; since ’09, they’re 22-17-1 as road dogs. Cleveland won three of last four games, winning 31-10/23-13 in last two at home; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Bucs won last three series games after losing first five; they’ve lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’06. Last three Cleveland games stayed under total; four of last five Buc games went over. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5-1 vs spread; AFC North home faves are 5-1-1.

Redskins (3-5) @ Vikings (3-5)—Washington is off emotional OT win at rival Dallas late Monday night; they won last two games by total of five points, could be starting 3rd different QB in three weeks if RGIII comes back for this. Redskins are 2-2 as road dogs this year, losing away games by 11-3-10 points, before the Dallas win. Vikings snapped 3-game skid with OT win Sunday in Tampa; average total in their last three games is 28.3, with Vikes scoring two TD’s on last 36 drives- they won Sunday on a defensive TD. Minnesota won three of last four series games, with average total of 61.3 in last three. NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Last three Viking games and three of last four Redskin games stayed under. Looks like RGIII will get start at QB, his first appearance since Week 2.

Eagles (5-2) @ Texans (4-4)—Philly lost two of three road games, all of which were decided by 5 or less points with average total of 46; they’ve allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. Houston ran ball for 164 ypg in last four games, after only 89.8 in first four- they outscored last three opponents 41-25 in second half. If Texans run ball well, it keeps Foles off field, giving Texan defense time to rest. Iggles won all three series games, by 18-14-10 points; they won 24-10 in only visit here. Houston is 4-2 this season in games with spread of 3 or less; Eagles are 8-3 under Kelly in such games, 2-1 this year. AFC South teams are 10-12 vs spread outside their division. Last three Texan games went over total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.

Jets (1-7) @ Chiefs (4-3)—Jets lost last seven games, benched QB Smith for 34-year old Vick last week; they’re -15 in turnovers for year, with only three takeaways (one in last five games). Chiefs covered last six games, are 2-1 as home favorites, winning 41-14/34-7 in last two home games; they ran ball for 154/143 yards in two post-bye games, outscoring foes 37-6 in second half. Jets are 2-1 as road underdogs this year, losing by 7-31-2 points, are 13-15-1 overall as road dogs under Ryan. won last three series games by 3-4-37 points; this is their first visit to Arrowhead since ’05. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional dogs are 5-3. Last three Jet games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under.

Cardinals (6-1) @ Cowboys (6-2)—Health of Romo’s back key variable here; backup Weeden looked capable in Monday night cameo, but guessing Romo plays. Arizona won/covered last three games, hitting 75-yard bomb in last 2:00 to beat Philly last week; favorites covered all three of their road games (lost 41-20 (+7.5) at Denver)- Redbirds beat Giants/Raiders on road. Third straight home game for Dallas, which heads to London next week; they’re 7-22 as home favorites under Garrett, 1-2 this year- two of their last three home games went OT. Cowboys were held to 17 points in both losses; Denver is only team to score more than 20 against Cardinals this season, Eagles are only team to run ball for more than 92 yards. Five of seven Arizona games stayed under total.

Rams (2-5) @ 49ers (5-3)—Niners trailed 14-3 at St Louis three weeks ago, hit 80-yard TD pass just before half and won going away 31-17; they’re 11-2-1 in last 14 series games. Rams are 0-5-1 in last six visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points. St Louis lost best WR Quick and LT Long to season-ending injuries last week; they’re 2-1 as road dogs this season, 11-8 under Fisher. Niners are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five post-bye games, 0-1-1 SU in last two; they’re 0-2-1 as home favorites this year, after being 15-6-1 in Harbaugh’s first three season. Would expect SF to try and pound ball here, after running for 89-62 yards in two pre-bye games. Four of last five Ram fans went over total; five of seven 49er games stayed under.

Broncos (6-1) @ Patriots (6-2)—Denver won/covered all four games since its bye, scoring 37.3 ppg, but only road tilt of the four was against hapless Jets. This is only third road game of year for Broncos, who are 11-5 as road favorites under Fox- they had extra time to prep since last game was on a Thursday. Patriots won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they covered 13 of last 17 when getting points, are 25-18 vs spread in last 43 home games- since ’06, this is their second game as a home dog (beat Denver 34-31 in OT (+2) LY. Home side won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four 53.5; Broncos lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points- they blew big lead in other game. Last four Denver games, last five Patriot games went over.

Raiders (0-7) @ Seahawks (4-3)—Seattle is 14-6 as home favorite under Carroll, 2-1 this year, but they lost last home game to Dallas, are 0-3 vs spread in last three games overall- they ran ball for only 56-71 yards in last two games, have only one takeaway in last three. Winless Raiders are 1-2-1 vs spread away from home, losing true road games by 5-7-10 points; five of their seven losses are by 11 or less points. Oakland covered twice in last six games as double digit dog; all three of its true road games stayed under total. Home side won 10 games in what used to be divisional rivalry; Raiders lost last four visits here, with three of four by 7 or less points. Over last 10+ yeas, Seattle is 8-5-1 as double digit favorite, 4-4 under Carroll.

Ravens (5-3) @ Steelers (5-3)—Ravens are 0-2 vs Cincinnati, 5-1 vs everyone else; they’re 3-0 when allowing less than 20 points, but Steelers scored 30-51 in last two games, with Big Ben having career day vs Colts last week, throwing for 522 yards. Baltimore (-2.5) whacked Pitt 26-6 in Week 2 Thursday game, running ball for 157 yards- they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with five of last six decided by 3 or less points; Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits here, with five of last six decided by 3 or less. Third straight home game for Steelers- they scored nine TDs on last 22 drives, are 9-6 in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less. Ravens are 10-12-1 in last 23 such games, 3-2 this season. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.

Colts (5-3) @ Giants (3-4)—Giants went 2L/3W/2L so far this year, losing 27-0/31-21 in last two games vs division rivals; they’ve scored 30+ points in all three wins, are 0-4 when scoring less than 30, with all four losses by 10+ points. Big Blue won last five post-bye games, with three of last four of those wins by 14+ points; Giants are 8-10 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Colts are 10-7-1 in such games under Pagano, 2-2 this year. Colts gave up 51 points, 522 passing yards to Steelers last week; 51-34 loss snapped their 5-game win streak. Indy split its four road games, losing at Denver/Pitt; they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-divisional road games. Giants covered three of last nine vs AFC teams. Over is 5-2 in last seven Indy games, 3-1-1 in last five Giant games.

**Udog** · 11-02-2014, 07:44 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 2

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Game of the Day: Broncos at Patriots
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3, 54)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will inevitably end up in the NFL Hall of Fame together and have been compared to each other since the former burst onto the scene in 2001. The two star quarterbacks continue their rivalry when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. As usual, Brady and Manning have their respective teams near the top of the AFC and Sunday’s meeting could have implications on postseason seeding down the line.

Brady’s teams have defeated Manning’s 10 out of the 15 meetings, but the Broncos got the big win when it counted in the AFC Championship game last season. “Peyton has been a phenomenal player – so consistent and durable for a long period,” Brady told reporters. “We've had a great rivalry. ... He’s always been someone I've really looked up to and admired.” Denver owns the best record in the AFC and joins New England in entering the weekend on a four-game winning streak.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas books opened the Broncos as 3-point road faves and that hasn't moved. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - RB Montee Ball (Questionable, groin), CB Omar Bolden (Questionable, concussion), LB Steven Johnson (Questionable, ankle). Patiots - DB Nate Ebner (Questionable, finger), OL Cameron Fleming (Questionble finger).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s with a 31 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 13 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.75) + Patriots (-3.75) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2.0

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Denver received a few extra days to prepare after playing the Thursday night game on Oct. 23 and has looked even better than the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Defensive end Von Miller, who sat out the win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Month for October with seven sacks and cornerback Aqib Talib, who made the Pro Bowl as a member of New England in 2013, is now on the Broncos’ side. “I think they’re forming their identity,” Manning told reporters of the defense. “There is no question they’re playing with confidence, and that’s what you want.”

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): New England’s rise over the last few weeks can be directly linked to the return to health of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was limited the first month while recovering from a knee injury that knocked him out of the 2013 campaign. The player that delivered the hit that tore up Gronkowski’s knee, safety T.J. Ward, is now with the Broncos, and the Patriots’ star has been avoiding making any statements directly about Ward. Gronkowski’s statements on the field have been loud, and he is coming off a three-TD performance in last week's 51-23 victory over the Chicago Bears.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in New England.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 53 percent of wagers are backing the visiting Broncos.

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**Udog** · 11-02-2014, 07:48 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 2

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Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Steelers
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 47)

Just when it appeared the Pittsburgh Steelers were on the verge of being written off as a playoff contender, Ben Roethlisberger and a revitalized offense have propelled them back into the AFC North race. The Steelers look to avenge one of their uglier performances of the season when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night in a key division matchup. Baltimore routed Pittsburgh 26-6 in Week 2, a rare outcome in a series in which nine of the 10 previous meetings were decided by three points or fewer.

While the Steelers have won two in a row, the Ravens lost at Cincinnati 27-24 last week in a showdown for first place in the division to drop into a tie with Pittsburgh, one-half game behind the Bengals. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, set franchise records with six touchdown passes and 522 yards as the Steelers demolished Indianapolis 51-34. "They have a lot of pride over there,” Baltimore coach John Harbaugh said of Pittsburgh. “But we’re very comfortable in that rivalry. We’re very comfortable in that stadium. And we understand what it takes to win there.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 1.5-point home faves, but that line has moved to +1.5. The total opened 47.5, moved to 48 and has dropped a full-point to 47.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - RB Justin Forsett (Probable, ankle), TE Owen Daniels (Questionable, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable, foot), WR Torrey Smith (Questionable, concussion). Steelers - NT Steve McLendon (Questionable, shoulder).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-30s and wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2.75) - Steelers (+1.25) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -1

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Baltimore allowed Cincinnati to drive 80 yards for the winning TD with just under a minute to play and had an apparent go-ahead score negated moments later when wide receiver Steve Smith was penalized for offensive interference. The Ravens' running game was in tatters when the teams last met, coming three days after Ray Rice had his contract terminated, but Justin Forsett has since stabilized the ground game by averaging an AFC-high 5.5 yards per carry. Despite throwing two interceptions in each of the past two contests, quarterback Joe Flacco is on pace for his first 4,000-yard season and his top target is Smith, who is tied for the league lead with four 100-yard games. Baltimore's defense is No. 2 in the league with an average of 16.4 points allowed.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Roethlisberger became the first quarterback in NFL history to register a pair of 500-yard passing games and is only the fourth QB in the Super Bowl era to win 100 of his first 150 starts. Wideout Antonio Brown has become a near-unstoppable force for Pittsburgh following his 10-catch, 133-yard, two-TD performance last week, leading the league in receptions (60) and ranking second in yards (852). Running back Le'Veon Bell is second in the NFL with 1.086 yards from scrimmage, but he was limited to 59 on the ground by the Ravens in Week 2 and has not scored a rushing touchdown since the season opener. Pittsburgh's defense is vulnerable against the pass, permitting 250.1 yards per game, and is among the league's worst teams with only 12 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five road games.
* Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 vs. AFC North.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 55 percent of wagers are backing the Steelers.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 30 - Monday, November 3)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 30 - Monday, November 3)

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