The Bum's NFL Novembers Best Bets-Trends-News !

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Thursday, October 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:25 PM ET Carolina +3 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Carolina - Over 49.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[DABUM]

Sharp Moves - Week 9

October 30, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 9!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.

(Rotation #460) Houston +2 – The Texans are sort of in a make or break type of week. They know that they are going to be at least an average team this year, but they have to prove that they can beat a team that is above-average at some point, too. Philadelphia certainly is that team, and it is coming off of a loss in the desert to the Cardinals that will surely sting for some time to come. The Eagles haven't played nearly as well on the road as they have at home in the Chip Kelly era, and they tend to make big mistakes in games like these. It goes without saying that the Eagles have been lucky with all of their defensive and special teams touchdowns, and the sharp bettors out there are hoping that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't going to be baited into too many mistakes in this game.

Opening Line: Houston +2.5
Current Line: Houston +2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #452) Miami -1.5 – Last week, we suggested that the Saints were the right side to play in a very similar type of a game. The Chargers are coming to the East Coast, and though they have been a bit of the exception to the rule in terms of performance, West Coast teams still tend to struggle in these 1:00 p.m. ET games, even against modest clubs like Miami. The Dolphins though, do seem to have found their stride just a bit, and they are playing like a team again after there were some rough patches in the last month or so. QB Philip Rivers has been fantastic, but the Chargers ground game has once again come to a grinding halt. If the Dolphins can slow their running game once again, the secondary is good enough to give Rivers and the Bolts fits.

Opening Line: Miami -1.5
Current Line: Miami -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on San Diego

(Rotation #474) New York +3.5 – This stat is well-advertised at this point - The Colts are 8-0 SU and ATS in games following double-digit losses throughout the Andrew Luck era. At this point though, what we're seeing is insane. The Giants are at a crossroads of their season. If they can win this game and get back to .500, there is a really good chance that they can go on a run in the games ahead and get back into the playoff picture. If they lose this game and fall to 3-5, the chances of survival are slim and none, and Head Coach Tom Coughlin will probably once again have his job up in the air. Indy isn't an unflappable team entirely, and we might see that come Monday night.

Opening Line: New York +3
Current Line: New York +3
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Indianapolis

[DABUM]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 9

October 31, 2014

LAS VEGAS – Quarterbacks will take center stage in Week 9 of the NFL season, as four games featuring star signal callers figure to impact bettors and sportsbooks in a big way on Sunday after all is said and done. Two of the games are marquee matchups made for television while the other two involve key injury situations for NFC East teams, with one QB coming back and the other a game-time decision.

In Sunday’s biggest game, a pair of future Hall of Famers are set to duke it out against each other for the 16th time when Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos visit Tom Brady’s New England Patriots. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins is set to return from an ankle injury on the road against the Minnesota Vikings, and Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys remains questionable to play when they host the Arizona Cardinals. Finally, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks to follow up his record-breaking performance with a win over the rival Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

As of late Friday afternoon, The Wynn still did not have a line up on the Cowboys-Cardinals game due to the pending status of Romo, who was listed as questionable on the NFL injury report with a back injury. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said he was waiting to get more info on Romo before putting the game up on the board at his book while others around Las Vegas had Dallas -3. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had opened the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites against the Cardinals last Sunday, but that was before Romo suffered the injury in Monday night’s 20-17 overtime loss at home to the Redskins. “I’m sure I’m going to get it up soon here,” Avello said. “There’s no rush for the customers to bet it. You can’t put a game up without knowing. I think Dallas would still be favored, even with the backup. How much will they be favored? Small, maybe anywhere from 1 to 2, I guess.

“With (Romo) in there, then they’ve got to be over a field goal, 4 to 6 I would think. The question is, is he in there at 100 percent, or is he in there at 70 percent? When Tony Romo’s not right, he’s not right. Sometimes when he’s right, he’s not right. We all know how this guy is. He sure has his ups and downs during the course of a season. He’s been pretty consistent this year so far.”

Washington’s third-string QB Colt McCoy led his team to that victory at Dallas, but he is not expected to be under center on Sunday at Minnesota. Instead, Griffin appears ready to go after missing the last six games with a dislocated ankle. The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites against the Redskins last Sunday at the SuperBook but have since been bet down to -1, which is where The Wynn opened Minnesota on Thursday after it looked like Griffin would indeed be in line to start.

The Patriots-Broncos game is usually reserved for primetime but will be one of the three later games featured on Sunday afternoon. Avello said he thinks that Brady vs. Manning matchup will still command a heavy volume from bettors who definitely have their own opinions on who the better QB and team is.

“It kind of is in primetime, it’s one of the three 1 o’clock (Pacific time) games, so therefore it’s certainly going to be a focal point of the afternoon,” Avello said. “We’re 3.5 even right now, the Broncos, and I think the players want to take New England in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get off 3.5 at some point. I think bettors learned their lesson on giving the Patriots points at home in that Cincinnati game. But Cincinnati and the Broncos are two different animals.

“Great, great game, at least visually entering it. We’ll see if it turns out that way.”

The Steelers and Ravens will likely wrap up Sunday’s NFL action with the highest total in their history. Currently, the total on the game is up to 48 after opening 47.5 at the SuperBook. The previous high total between the teams of 46 came back in 1997, which was Baltimore’s second year as a new NFL franchise.

The two AFC North rivals have been known to play low-scoring, defensive battles, but this season both of them have proven themselves as offensive-minded teams. Roethlisberger set a Pittsburgh team record with 522 passing yards and six touchdowns in a 51-34 victory against the Indianapolis Colts just last week while Baltimore has scored a division-best 217 points in eight games this season.

“I think a lot of that has to do with Roethlisberger’s performance last week, and that the Baltimore Ravens are averaging 27 points per game” Avello said. “Roethlisberger last week, that was the best I’ve even seen him.”

Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 9 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

451 CHARGERS X X X
452 DOLPHINS 2.5 2.5 0

453 JAGUARS X X X
454 BENGALS 13 10.5 -2.5

455 BUCCANEERS X X X
456 BROWNS 6.5 6.5 0

457 REDSKINS X X X
458 VIKINGS 2.5 1 -1.5

459 EAGLES 2.5 1.5 -1
460 TEXANS X X X

461 JETS X X X
462 CHIEFS 7.5 9.5 2

463 CARDINALS X X X
464 COWBOYS 4.5 3 -1.5

465 RAMS X X X
466 49ERS 9.5 10 0.5

467 BRONCOS 3.5 3 -0.5
468 PATRIOTS X X X

469 RAIDERS X X X
470 SEAHAWKS 14.5 15 0.5

471 RAVENS X 2 X
472 STEELERS 1,5 X -3.5

473 COLTS 3.5 3.5 0
474 GIANTS X X X

Updates provided by bettingmoves.com

[DABUM]

Quarterly Rankings 5-8

October 30, 2014


This is our second installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team. Let’s jump right into the #’s!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin
6 DEN 54.4 3 44.8 2 99.1 1 2 4
3 NO 59.4 1 33.6 24 92.9 2 21 (5)
6 DAL 56.9 2 35.1 17 92.0 3 26 (2)
5 IND 52.1 4 39.8 8 91.8 4 17 (1)
5 BAL 51.2 5 38.7 11 89.9 5 30 0
4 KC 46.4 10 42.1 4 88.6 6 5 (2)
4 MIA 46.2 12 42.0 5 88.2 7 23 2
4 SEA 49.3 7 38.6 12 87.9 8 8 1
4 SF 45.1 14 41.7 6 86.8 9 1 4
6 DET 36.4 26 48.6 1 85.0 10 31 1
5 PIT 50.1 6 33.8 22 83.8 11 32 1
5 PHI 43.9 17 38.3 13 82.1 12 15 (7)
5 SD 47.9 8 33.9 20 81.9 13 24 4
6 NE 46.4 9 35.1 18 81.5 14 29 11
3 WAS 43.7 19 37.8 14 81.4 15 22 (8)
3 CHI 43.9 16 36.4 16 80.4 16 27 (3)
6 ARI 40.7 24 38.9 10 79.6 17 6 9
5 BUF 35.8 27 43.2 3 79.0 18 19 7
3 NYG 43.5 20 35.0 19 78.5 19 4 0
4 HOU 44.7 15 33.7 23 78.4 20 20 4
4 CIN 46.4 11 31.9 25 78.3 21 8 4
5 GB 46.0 13 31.4 26 77.4 22 16 8
1 NYJ 35.7 28 40.0 7 75.7 23 11 (15)
4 CLE 43.2 21 31.3 27 74.5 24 12 6
2 ATL 43.8 18 29.3 28 73.0 25 25 (2)
3 MIN 33.2 30 39.6 9 72.8 26 28 (1)
2 TEN 37.1 25 33.9 21 70.9 27 14 0
3 CAR 41.8 22 29.0 29 70.8 28 13 4
2 STL 41.6 23 27.4 31 69.1 29 4 (3)
1 JAC 32.1 31 36.9 15 69.0 30 10 (10)
0 OAK 31.6 32 27.7 30 59.4 31 9 (7)
1 TB 33.7 29 24.3 32 58.0 32 18 (4)


The Denver Broncos are the top rated team & frankly it’s not close. Not only are they performing at an extremely high level with a 99.1 rating their blended Strength of Schedule is also 2nd toughest in the NFL, a very unusual dynamic – playing so well & versus a tough schedule.

Many will be surprised seeing the Saints at #2 but they are playing solid football overall – however, as we have seen in a few games already this season, their Turnover Margin (TOM) of (5) is the worst of the Top 11 teams in the ratings. As we saw on SNF this past week vs. Green Bay, if they can hang onto the football they remain an extremely dangerous squad, especially offensively.

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Five of the top seven teams are from the AFC

The top 5 teams in the overall ratings are also the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – that is not a big surprise since football has really shifted towards more of an offensive mentality over the last decade or so

Seattle checks in at #8, perhaps below what many expect; however, remember last season although they were in the Top 2 with Denver their TOM was +20 – this season it’s just +1.

Next is my red flag/green light identification. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings & TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

Red Flag: Cleveland, Buffalo, Arizona

Green Light: New Orleans, Washington, New York Jets

Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):

Division Rankings
Division Rating Overall Rank
NFC East 49 1
AFC West 51 2
AFC North 61 3
AFC East 62 4
NFC West 63 5
NFC North 74 6
AFC South 81 7
NFC South 87 8


Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season. Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game.

AFC Playoffs

1) Denver
2) Indianapolis
3) New England
4) Baltimore
5) San Diego
6) Cincinnati

NFC Playoffs

1) Detroit
2) Dallas
3) Arizona
4) Carolina
5) Seattle
6) Philadelphia

Last analysis for this week are my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings; two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

Weekly Power Rankings
Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 Indianapolis
4 Dallas
5 New Orleans
5 Baltimore
7 San Francisco
8 Kansas City
8 San Diego
10 Philadelphia
11 Detroit
11 New England
13 Arizona
14 Green Bay
15 Cincinnati
16 Miami
16 Pittsburgh
18 Washington
19 New York Giants
20 Chicago
21 Houston
22 Carolina
23 Cleveland
24 Buffalo
25 New York Jets
25 Atlanta
27 Minnesota
28 St. Louis
29 Tennessee
30 Oakland
31 Tampa Bay
32 Jacksonville

[DABUM]

Trends to Watch - November

October 30, 2014


The trick-or-treaters are stockpiled for another year and turkeys are running for cover. That can only mean one thing… the NFL in November is here.

Before you make a move on the pro football games this month it would serve you well to gush over some of the good, bad and downright ugly trends outlined below of NFL teams during the month of November dating back to 1990. Because, the Sir Winston Churchill so wisely once put it, “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina has been able to collect the cash in Charlotte this time of year with a 29-17 ATS record and they will have one chance to do so against Atlanta (11/16).

Too bad for Denver they will be on the road four times this month because they are 37-22 ATS at home and will only have Miami visit on the 23rd of the month.

Bad: St. Louis will have two chances to improve on horrific 15-35 ATS mark and one will be a huge task and the other not as much. Peyton Manning and friends arrive on Nov. 16 and two weeks later Oakland is at the nearby Arch.

Even during Super Bowl seasons, the New York Giants floundered in New Jersey with a 15-30 ATS record and will have a trio of opportunities to either improve or do worse against Indianapolis (11/3), San Francisco (11/16) and Dallas (11/23).

Keep an eye on (Bad): To the surprise of nobody, Oakland is a pathetic 15-29 ATS at home and does not figure to improve in division games with Denver (11/9) and a Thursday nighter with Kansas City.

Indianapolis (19-31 ATS) and Washington (18-29 ATS) also are poor at home, but at least the Colts can improve facing the Redskins at the end of the month.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Aside from last year, Houston has been a dependable road team in November at 16-8 ATS, but with three home games and bye, the Texans will have to only travel to Cleveland in the middle of the month.

Keep an eye on (Good): With Chicago’s woes, curious to how they react in division games with Green Bay (11/9) and in Detroit on Thanksgiving with their 33-18 ATS record.

Cincinnati has been a solid traveler at 26-16 ATS, but will be severely tested with three in a row beginning the third week of the month, heading to New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay in succession.

Keep an eye on (Bad): This is annually when Detroit’s season turns as cold as Lake Michigan and they will have to visit Arizona and New England with a 15-27 spread record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas has been a great story all season and they have been quite good handing out digits at 40-24 ATS in November. As long as Tony Romo is playing, the Cowboys will be favored in every game this month.

Bad: The Washington Redskins began to turn their season around in late October. Historically they have not been very good as favorites this month at 12-27 ATS. They might be the people’s choice on Nov. 2 at Minnesota and certainly will be handing out points two weeks later when Tampa Bay is in town.

Keep an eye on (Bad): By the end of the month, St. Louis will have faced a stretch of seven games versus teams who could well be in the playoffs this year. On the last Sunday of the month, they finally catch a break facing Oakland, but they are 14-25 ATS as November chalk.

It will be up to the Kansas City Chiefs to lift the spirits of Kansas City fans after coming so close in the World Series. K.C. however is only 21-35 ATS as favorites the month after the Fall Classic. The Chiefs will be favored against the Jets at home and at Oakland on a Thursday night. But we will have to see about trip to Buffalo (11/9) and when Seattle visits a week later.

DOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): Because Tampa Bay is usually out of contention for the playoffs by now; they are normally underdogs, which have worked to the benefit of Bucs backers at 35-20 ATS. Tampa Bay will have five such roles this month.

Bad: We mentioned earlier the N.Y. Giants are a bad home team in November and are even worse when listed as underdogs at 11-28 ATS. Though the G-Men have three home games, they are against Indianapolis, San Francisco and Dallas, with a good chance they will be dogs in all. This plus a road trip to Seattle (11/9), Good Luck!

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit had a very good first half of the season at 6-2 and normally this is where the Lions start to taper off. As underdogs they are only 22-39 ATS and fit this role at Arizona (11/16) and at New England (11/23).

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas is a solid bet here at 25-15 ATS and will be at the Giants on the 23rd and hosting Philadelphia on Thanksgiving.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The St. Louis scheduling nightmare continues with a return engagement with San Francisco on Nov. 2 at their joint and at Arizona the following week. The Rams are 17-29 ATS vs. division foes.

The Chiefs will have to go on the warpath to improve their 16-27 ATS mark against division foes. Kansas City will face Oakland and Denver at the end of the month.

[DABUM]

Sunday's Top Action

October 31, 2014


ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 44.5

Two NFC powerhouses clash in Dallas when the Cardinals square off against the Cowboys.

Arizona QB Carson Palmer threw a 75-yard touchdown to John Brown with just 1:21 left to beat the Eagles 24-20 at home last week for its third straight win (SU and ATS). The club now faces a Dallas team that not only suffered a loss on Monday to the 9-point underdog Redskins, but may not have the services of starting QB Tony Romo, who is a game-time decision because of an injured back. The Cardinals last faced the Cowboys on Dec. 4, 2011, when they won 19-13 as home underdogs for their third straight win (SU and ATS) in this series. But this game will be played in Big D, where the Cowboys have won 12 of the past 13 games SU against Arizona.

Over the past three seasons, the Cardinals are 6-0 ATS when facing a team that’s allowing 350 or more yards per game during the second half of the season. The Cowboys, however, are 3-0 ATS when facing a team that allows less than 3.5 rushing yards per carry during that span. CB Patrick Peterson (concussion) will be questionable for the Cardinals after a big collision in Week 8, as will S Tony Jefferson (concussion). For the Cowboys, LB Rolando McClain (shoulder) and CB Brandon Carr (undisclosed) are both listed as questionable.

The Cardinals played an excellent game on Sunday, going punch for punch with a talented Philadelphia team. QB Carson Palmer (1,136 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) ended up gutting out a victory after a big throw with just over a minute remaining. He’s been a completely different quarterback this season than over the course of his career. He has just one interception on the year despite having a reputation as a turnover prone signal-caller. One thing that has opened up the field for Palmer is the emergence of RB Andre Ellington (464 rush yards, 2 TD). Ellington rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown in the win over Philly and is as explosive a running back as there is in this league. He’s also an excellent receiver out of the backfield, piling up 28 catches for 274 yards and a touchdown in 2014. He’ll need to play well early against a Cowboys defense that can be tough to run against once they get their adrenaline going. WR Michael Floyd (19 rec, 353 yards, 2 TD) will look to bounce back after being held without a catch against the Eagles.

Luckily for Arizona, WR Larry Fitzgerald has re-emerged as a top option. He caught seven passes for 160 yards and a touchdown last game and should be able to produce against this Dallas defense. Speedy WR John Brown (22 rec, 316 yards, 4 TD) is also a valuable field stretcher. Arizona’s defensive front has been outstanding this season, allowing just 77.9 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL). The Cardinals have also done a great job with forcing turnovers, piling up 13 takeaways in the past six games, including three last week.

The Cowboys had a golden opportunity to start the season 7-1, but they were unable to beat the Colt McCoy-led Redskins. QB Tony Romo (1,998 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) was injured late in the game against Washington when he took a hit to his back, but backup QB Brandon Weeden did a nice job replacing him for a stretch, going 4-of-6 for 69 yards (11.5 YPA) and 1 TD while leading his team to 10 points on two drives. But the strength of this team remains the running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,054 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 7 TD), who has rushed for over 100 yards in every single game this season. It will be interesting to see him face this relentless Arizona defense. He’s coming off a game in which he rushed for 141 yards and caught four passes for 80 yards, so it’s possible that there’s some wear-and-tear on the Cowboys’ superstar. He's also lost five fumbles already this year.

Whoever is under center will be targeting WR Dez Bryant (48 rec, 620 yards, 5 TD) often. Bryant was held to just three catches for 30 yards against Washington, but he did catch a touchdown pass in the red zone. If Arizona is without top CB Patrick Peterson, Bryant could be in for one of his biggest performances of the season. One good sign in the loss to Washington is that TE Jason Witten (28 rec, 336 yards, 2 TD) caught five passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. If he can get himself going the second half of the year, this team could be even better than it has been offensively.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -2, Total: 48.5

The Texans look to get back above .500 with a home victory over the Eagles on Sunday.

Philadelphia took a late lead in Arizona last week but was unable to hold it, as it fell 24-20 to the Cardinals. Houston got back to .500 with a convincing 30-16 win over the Titans. The Texans have not beaten the Eagles in three meetings since entering the league in 2002. Philly is 2-1 ATS in those victories, with the most recent win-and-cover coming in a 34-24 home game on Dec. 2, 2010. Houston is allowing 271.4 passing yards per game this season (28th in NFL) and it could have trouble stopping QB Nick Foles and this pass-heavy Philadelphia offense. Houston is 22-10 ATS in home games after failing to cover in two out of its previous three games since entering the league. The Texans are, however, just 2-9 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past two years.

This Philadelphia team has covered in four of the five games that it has been favored on the season. RB Darren Sproles (knee), CB Brandon Boykin (hamstring) and S Nate Allen (hamstring) are questionable for the Eagles, while the Texans could be missing the questionable duo of LB Brian Cushing (knee) and DB Darryl Morris (ankle).

The Eagles were unable to leave Arizona with a victory on Sunday, letting up a deep touchdown pass from Carson Palmer with just over a minute remaining in the game. After throwing just two interceptions last season, QB Nick Foles (2,039 pass yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) has now thrown nine picks in just seven games. He’ll need to take better care of the football going forward, and that will begin Sunday with a meeting with J.J. Watt. The Texans star has forced two turnovers this season and is capable of knocking down any pass thrown his way, so Foles will have to avoid the 6-foot-5, 289-pound defensive end. One player who should be in for a big game is WR Jeremy Maclin (39 rec, 632 yards, 6 TD), who caught 12 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. He saw a lot of time against Patrick Peterson, and it didn’t affect him the slightest bit. He’s shown that he is capable of beating his defender no matter who it is, and he should be able to do find holes against this bottom-five passing defense.

One guy who must step his game up for Philly is RB LeSean McCoy (505 rush yards, 1 TD). McCoy was considered an elite running back before the season, but he’s rushing for only 3.7 yards per carry. He could have trouble against a defensive line that can be dominant when locked in. This Eagles defense will need to be prepared for a matchup with RB Arian Foster, as they are allowing 116.7 rushing yards per game (21st in NFL), but Foster is no ordinary running back. They Eagles will need to be on top of their game on Sunday or they’ll have no chance of winning on the road.

The Texans defeated the Titans on Sunday and they are still very much alive in the playoff hunt. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,757 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) threw for 227 yards and a touchdown in the victory over Tennessee, and he’ll need to limit his turnovers once again on Sunday. It shouldn’t be hard, however, as all he’ll need to do is hand the rock to Arian Foster (766 rush yards, 7 TD). Foster has rushed for 100 or more yards in six of the seven games that he’s played in this season. He’s also rushed for two touchdowns in three of the past four games, while also catching a touchdown in two straight contests.

In the passing game, WR DeAndre Hopkins (36 rec, 569 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as Fitzpatrick’s top receiver. He’s been targeted 20 times over the past two weeks, resulting in 11 catches and 203 yards. Hopkins is a downfield threat and he should give this Eagles’ secondary some trouble on Sunday. WR Andre Johnson (46 rec, 551 yards, 1 TD) will need to be more involved in this offense going forward. He had seven catches for 55 yards against the Titans, but Fitzpatrick will often have long spells during the game where he doesn’t even look to the superstar.

DENVER BRONCOS (6-1) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -3, Total: 54.5

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off Sunday when the Broncos head to Foxboro for a showdown with the Patriots.

Both teams won their fourth straight game last week, as Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for 286 yards with 3 TD in a 35-21 home win-and-cover over the Chargers, while New England QB Tom Brady threw for 354 yards and 5 TD in a 51-23 blowout over the Bears. These teams last met in the AFC Championship on Jan. 19, when the Broncos won 26-16 at home as five-point favorites. Manning threw for 400 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks, but he is still just 5-10 SU all-time in head-to-head meetings with Brady. The Pats are 2-0 SU and ATS when hosting Denver over the past three seasons, but in this same timeframe, the Broncos are 13-3 ATS in the second half of the season and 25-11 ATS as a favorite.

Meanwhile, New England is 8-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three years. They’re also up against a Denver team that is 0-7 ATS after four straight double-digit wins since 1992. RB Montee Ball (groin) could return for Denver in this one, while the Patriots have no new major injuries since losing DE Chandler Jones (hip) indefinitely two weeks ago.

The Broncos have won four straight games due in large part to QB Peyton Manning (2,134 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT) throwing for 330 YPG and 14 touchdowns. But he now faces the Patriots, a team he’s struggled with in his career. Manning is 0-3 SU in his past three trips to New England, throwing for 297.0 yards per game with 9 TD and 4 INT. He’ll need to be more careful when throwing the ball in CB Darrelle Revis’ (2 INT) direction. RB Ronnie Hillman (349 rush yards, 2 TD) will need to be ready to play in this game. Hillman has been excellent in place of the injured Montee Ball, but pass protection will be a key factor in determining who wins this game. He must protect Manning at all costs when his coaches ask him to do so.

WRs Demaryius Thomas (47 rec, 767 yards, 6 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (47 rec, 634 yards, 4 TD) will look to keep up their excellent play this week. Sanders is coming off of a 120-yard, 3-TD performance against the Chargers. One reason the Broncos have been so much better this season is their defense. Denver is allowing just 242.9 passing yards per game (17th in NFL), which is good for a team that is involved in as many shootouts as they are. They are also allowing an NFL-low 72.4 rushing yards per game, and have a +5 turnover margin in the past three games.

The Patriots offense has been rolling during their four-game win streak with 39.5 PPG and 428 total YPG. QB Tom Brady (2,059 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT) has played incredible football during the win streak with 317 passing YPG and 14 TD tosses. He has also dominated this Broncos team at home over the past five years, throwing for 310.0 yards per game with 10 total touchdowns and just one interception. A big part of Brady’s outstanding play during October is TE Rob Gronkowski (40 rec, 557 yards, 7 TD) returning to form. He finally looks as healthy as ever and caught nine passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns in the Patriots’ blowout win over the Bears last week. He should have success working the middle against this Broncos secondary.

WR Brandon LaFell (30 rec, 461 yards, 4 TD) has been Brady’s second favorite target, catching 11 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown against Chicago. His size and speed is everything Brady wants in an outside receiver, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up. This Patriots defense will have its work cut out for them against the Broncos. They’re allowing just 210.9 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL), but Peyton Manning’s offense is a whole different animal. This is a big opportunity for CB Darrelle Revis to show the world that he’s still the game’s premier shutdown corner.

[DABUM]

SNF - Ravens at Steelers

October 30, 2014


BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baltimore -1, Total: 48

Division rivals clash on Sunday night when the Ravens visit the hated Steelers.

Baltimore fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last week, while Pittsburgh beat the Colts 51-34 behind 522 passing yards and six touchdowns from QB Ben Roethlisberger. When these teams met in Week 2, the Ravens crushed the Steelers 26-6 as 2.5-point home underdogs. But Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in the past 15 home meetings with Baltimore, and Roethlisberger is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) when hosting the Ravens at home over the past five seasons, passing for 243.8 YPG in those contests with five total touchdowns and just 2 INT. Since 1992, the Ravens are 44-23 ATS after playing a game where 50 or more total points are scored.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 12-4 ATS after the first month of the season over the past two years and are also 26-11 ATS in home games after allowing 6+ yards per play in their previous game since 1992. WR Torrey Smith (concussion), CB Jimmy Smith (foot) and TE Owen Daniels (knee) are questionable for Baltimore. Pittsburgh's main injuries are on the defensive side of the ball with NT Steve McLendon (shoulder) and S Shamarko Thomas (hamstring).

The Ravens were unable to come away with a road victory over the Bengals last week, but they have still won two of their past three and five of their past seven contests. QB Joe Flacco (2,049 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT) was miserable against the Bengals, throwing for just 195 yards with zero touchdowns and two picks. He’ll need to limit his ill-advised throws against a Pittsburgh secondary that will make him pay. One player who did step up against the Bengals was RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (226 rush yards, 4 TD). The running back rushed seven times for 27 yards and two touchdowns in the game and also caught two passes for 42 yards. He’ll continue to get the goal-line carries for this team, but he could have trouble against a tough defensive front on Sunday.

The Ravens are going to need WR Steve Smith Sr. (41 rec, 675 yards, 4 TD) to get himself back on track. After a sizzling start to the season, which included six catches for 71 yards versus Pittsburgh, Smith has just six catches for 102 yards over the past two weeks combined. The Ravens defense has been very good this season, allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). They had not given up more than 20 points in a game in the four weeks before allowing 27 to Cincinnati.

The Steelers put a beating on the Colts last week with 51 points and 639 total yards. Ben Roethlisberger (2,380 pass yards, 16 TD, 3 INT) is coming off a career-best game (40-of-49, 522 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT) and his receivers were no slouches either. WR Antonio Brown (60 rec, 852 yards, 7 TD) had 10 catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns in the game. He has been the most consistent receiver in football with at least 84 yards in all eight games this season, and should have no trouble getting himself free against the Ravens. He had seven catches for 90 yards, plus a 10-yard carry, when he faced Baltimore in Week 2. RB Le’Veon Bell (691 rush yards, 1 TD) was severely under utilized in that game. Pittsburgh fell behind early, so Bell only got 11 carries for 59 yards. He also caught five passes for 48 yards. The Steelers will likely feature him early in an effort to win the battle for time of possession.

WR Martavis Bryant (7 rec, 123 yards, 3 TD) has been unleashed in the Pittsburgh offense. The rookie played his first two games of the year over the past two weeks and responded with three touchdown catches. He’s a big target and has shown good hands and footwork, so Roethlisberger will look to target him when he’s faced with smaller Ravens’ corners. Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid this season, allowing just 107.8 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL) and 250.1 passing yards per game (19th in NFL). They’ve struggled against the pass at times, but they did limit Joe Flacco to just 166 yards the last time they met. He did, however, throw for two touchdowns and no picks.