Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2014, 01:41 AM

Books break even in Week 8

October 27, 2014

LAS VEGAS – One would think the result of Sunday’s Week 8 AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts would have turned out pretty good for sportsbooks with the home team sitting as an underdog and bettors moving the visitor from a 3-point road favorite to -4.5 just before kickoff. But that was not the case at The Wynn, where Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations Johnny Avello said his book broke about even with the Steelers routing the Colts, 51-34.

“Actually, the Colts game was a balanced game for us,” Avello said. “We had some people taking back the 4.5 for pretty big money late. So that game balanced out ok.”

“Balanced out” obviously was not the best-case scenario for The Wynn, but on a day like Sunday, things could have been worse. Two other Week 8 games featuring AFC North teams fell on the right and wrong side for the house, with bettors getting the best of the book on the Cleveland Browns and losing on the Baltimore Ravens, who opened as 3-point road underdogs but closed -3 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati held off Baltimore 27-24 with Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton scoring the game-winning touchdown with 57 seconds remaining after surrendering the lead a little more than three minutes earlier. The Ravens saw the public back them more than any other team in Week 8 and ended up getting swept by Cincy, also losing the season opener as a 1-ponit home favorite, 23-16.

“Cincinnati was a good game for us,” Avello said. “From top to bottom, it might be the best division in football, competitive-wise anyway.”

The Browns turned in an opposite result for The Wynn, beating up the Oakland Raiders 23-13 in one of the ugliest games of the day both from a watching and wagering perspective. On Friday, Avello had said he thought this was going to be one of Oakland’s best chances to get a victory. As it turned out, the Raiders remained winless on the season and failed to cover the spread for the third time in four games.

“The Raider game, we opened 7 and closed 7, but the result was bad for us,” Avello said. “The Raiders are just a disaster sometimes. It feels like there’s just no game plan, no discipline, the fundamentals are out the window. I feel bad for this kid Carr because he’s a rookie in there, and you can see he’s trying. But he’s probably in the wrong system, there’s no one there to guide him along. It’s a tough spot to be in. It’s just like one catastrophe after another with them.

“If you’re betting on them, you’re going to be life and death. I thought it was a great spot for them, and looking back they probably should have stayed within the 7. You just can’t continuously make the same mistakes week after week.”

Other bad results included the Minnesota Vikings beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13 in overtime as 1.5-point road favorites after opening +2.5 and the New England Patriots (-6), Miami Dolphins (-7), Kansas City Chiefs (-7) and Houston Texans (-3.5) all winning by two touchdowns or more as favorites.

“They bet Minnesota a little, the Patriots were involved in a lot of teasers and parlays, they bet the Chiefs,” Avello said. “The Dolphins got bet. The Houston Texans was a bad game for us.”

Three other games worked out well for The Wynn, including the New Orleans Saints ripping the Green Bay Packers 44-23 on Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites. Avello knew he was going to lose money if that primetime game went OVER, but bettors still lost backing the Packers.

“We lost on the over, the (side) turned out ok,” Avello said. “Overall, that game turned out alright. We made a few bucks on that game.”

The Arizona Cardinals winning 24-20 against the Philadelphia Eagles despite closing as 1-point home underdogs after opening -3, and the Seattle Seahawks falling on the opening number in a 13-9 road victory over the Carolina Panthers also helped out The Wynn.

“The Eagles game, there was money on both sides,” Avello said. “We did take some late Eagle money to have more on the Eagles than the other side. We opened Seattle 4, they won by 4, that game got bet up to 6.”

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2014, 01:44 AM

Inside the Stats - Week 9

October 28, 2014

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The first poll from the playoff committee was released Tuesday evening and with it the controversy starts.

While the debate continues we’ll continue to pour through the stats as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Keep in mind it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 27, unless noted otherwise.

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS

With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the College Football season – the month of November!

That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year. Our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.

What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list from our ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:

Play On Dogs: Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Louisville, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Virginia, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.

Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, UNLV, *Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.

To kick off the festivities this week we find Arizona, Auburn, Louisville (Thursday) and Virginia on the ‘Play On’ dog list; Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.

There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin

OIL HAZARDS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NCAAFB: Penn State, Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt.

NFL: There are no plays in the NFL this week.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were a handful of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NCAAFB: Duke and Illinois

NFL: Arizona Cardinals

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NCAAFB: Florida and Oklahoma

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Arizona Cardinals are 11-1 ATS versus the NFC East.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS versus losing opponents seeking triple revenge exact.

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-1-1 ATS versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact.

The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS as home favorites between away games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game.

The New Orleans Saints are 7-0 ATS in games after facing the Green Bay Packers, but 0-6-2 ATS on Thursdays.

STAT OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2014, 01:49 AM

Steelers rounding into form for second half

October 28, 2014

PITTSBURGH (AP) - Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin isn't ready to say his team plays in the best division in the NFL even with all four clubs in the AFC North over .500.

Tomlin says it will all shake out over the next eight weeks. One thing is for certain, though. The Steelers are in the mix. Pittsburgh (5-3) has won two straight heading into Sunday's game against Baltimore behind a resurgent offense.

The Steelers averaged over 40 points and 500 yards in victories over Houston and Indianapolis. Tomlin praised the play of a rapidly improving offensive line and the steady hand of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh's defense remains a work in progress, but has come up with several big plays in recent weeks.

----------------------------------------------

Redskins have 'pulse'; RG3 close to return

October 28, 2014

WASHINGTON (AP) - The magnitude of Monday night's upset win over the Dallas Cowboys isn't lost on Washington Redskins coach Jay Gruden.

Gruden said Tuesday the 20-17 overtime victory shows: ''We still have a pulse. Our heart is still beating, and we have a lot to play for still - and that's what that game meant for us.''

The Redskins are 3-5 and have winnable games up next against the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Gruden said quarterback Robert Griffin III is ''very, very, very close'' to returning, but the coach wouldn't commit to a quarterback for next week's game.

He said he's ''not going to rush Robert back no matter what happens'' and praised Colt McCoy, who has an 86 percent completion rate.

--------------------------------------------------

Lions won't offer timetable on DT Fairley

October 28, 2014

ALLEN PARK, Mich. (AP) - Detroit Lions coach Jim Caldwell did not disclose a timetable for Nick Fairley's return after the defensive tackle injured his right knee in a win over Atlanta on Sunday.

Caldwell says he's aware of a report that Fairley could miss around a month, but says the Lions haven't come to that conclusion yet. He says he's received no indication that the injury is season-ending.

Fairley was injured as he hit Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan on a pass play. Lions teammate Ndamukong Suh, rushing Ryan from the other side, crashed into Fairley.

After falling awkwardly, Fairley clutched his right knee and was noticeably limping as he was helped off the field.

Detroit has an open date this weekend, then hosts Miami.

-----------------------------------------------------

Bucs trade Barron, Casillas at deadline

October 28, 2014

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have traded safety Mark Barron to the St. Louis Rams and reserve linebacker Jonathan Casillas to the New England Patriots in exchange for draft picks.

Barron was the seventh overall selection in the 2012 draft, but has not made the type of impact on defense that the Bucs (1-6) anticipated when he entered the league. The Rams gave up fourth and sixth-round picks in 2015 for the third-year safety, who has three interceptions, two fumble recoveries and one sack in 37 games.

Casillas started the first three games of the season before losing the strong-side linebacker's job to Danny Lansanah, who has returned two interceptions for touchdowns. The Bucs sent him and a sixth-round pick to the Patriots, receiving a fifth-round pick in return.

The deals were confirmed Tuesday, shortly after the NFL trading deadline.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-29-2014, 01:52 AM

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 28, 2014

Thursday, Oct. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA...Saints 0-4 SU and 1-3 vs. line away this season, now 2-10 vs. line away in reg, season since 2013. Saints "over" 5-1-1 in 2014. Panthers 3-1 vs. line at home in 2014 and 11-2-1 vs. line last 14 as host. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SAN DIEGO at MIAMI...Chargers haven't won SU at Miami since 41-38 OT epic 1981 playoff thriller. Bolts now no covers last three in 2014 after 10-1 spread run prior. Dolphins "over" first three at home TY. Dolphins and slight to "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CINCINNATI...Jags just 2-7-1 vs. spread last ten away. But Cincy 1-3 vs. line last four TY and Marvin Lewis 8-16-1 as home chalk since 2009. Slight to Jags, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND...Browns have covered first four as host this season. Bucs 2-1 as road dog, also "over" 3-0 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA...Even after Dallas upset, Redskins 1-4 vs. line last five this season and 5-11 last 16 vs. number since mid 2013. Skins also "over" 6-2 last eight away. "Over" and Vikings, based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON...Birds just 1-4 vs. line last five as visitor. Slight to Texans, based on team trends.

NY JETS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered their last six in 2014, Jets 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Jets also "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Chiefs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS...Cards now on 11-3-1 spread run. Big Red also 6-1 vs. line last seven away. Arians 8-4 last 12 as dog. Cards, based on Arians trends.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO...Harbaugh has now won and covered three straight vs. Fisher, all by DD margins. Rams 6-11-1 as dog since LY. 49ers, based on series and team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND...Home team has won and covered all three meetings since Manning arrived in Denver (NE 2-1). Broncos now "over" four straight, while Pats "over" last five in 2014 and "over" 50-21 reg season since 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at SEATTLE...Pete Carroll no covers last three TY but still 27-15-2 vs. line since 2012. Seahawks, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH...Ravens romp 26-6 in Week Two. Previous five series meetings in Pitt decided by 3 or fewer. Steel "over" 7-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Nov. 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

INDIANAPOLIS at NY GIANTS ...Eli now no SU wins or covers last 2 after 3-0 SU and spread run. Colts 3-1 vs. line away TY and "over" 7-2-1 last 10. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:16 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Manning, Broncos faves at Brady, Patriots

Two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season collide in Week 9 when the Dallas Cowboys play host to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) were expected to struggle when the season opened, but they’ve done anything but, rolling into this contest on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS).

Dallas still has work to do before focusing on Arizona, with the Cowboys wrapping up Week 8 at home against the Washington Redskins Monday.

With Carson Palmer back under center, the Cardinals (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three in a row SU and ATS, including a 24-20 nailbiter over Philadelphia as a 1-point home favorite Sunday. John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, expects to open the Cowboys as 4-point favorites.

“Is it time we start believing in the Arizona Cardinals? I’m not completely sold that they are one of the top teams, but they’re starting to convince me,” Lester said. “Getting (defensive end) Calais Campbell back was huge for them. It’s a short week for the Cowboys, but if everything goes accordingly on Monday night, we’ll probably make them around 4-point favorites.

Denver Broncos (-3) at New England Patriots

It’s Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady for the 16th time, with Brady holding a 10-5 SU edge.

Denver (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) heads into Foxboro with a little extra rest, having dumped San Diego last Thursday 35-21 as a 9-point home favorite – the Broncos’ fourth-straight win and cover. And facing strong teams is pretty much old hat, as Denver has already played six teams that won at least 10 games last year, including five that made the playoffs.

New England (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has a beat-up roster, yet posted its fourth-straight win (3-1 ATS) in a 51-23 shellacking of visiting Chicago as 5.5-point chalk Sunday. Lester likes the Patriots to keep it going.

“There’ll be no shortage of bets for this marquee matchup, and I expect to see good two-way action where the line is,” Lester said. “We got some early money in on the visitors, so we moved to +3.5 (-120) pretty quickly. The public will be on Denver, but I’m guessing we’ll see some sharps taking the points with the Pats, and I think they win.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (pick)

The AFC North is a jumbled mess, making this bitter rivalry game an important one for both teams. Pittsburgh (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has won two in a row SU and ATS, with its offense going ballistic Sunday in a 51-34 upset of Indianapolis as a 5-point home underdog. Baltimore (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell short as a 2.5-point road fave at Cincinnati, losing 27-24.

“Even though the quality isn’t what it used to be, this is still a great matchup every year,” Lester said. “I really wanted to make the Steelers a 1-or 2-point favorite, since I consider the Ravens just slightly better. After the early line movement to -1.5, I was furrowing my eyebrows at some guys around the room.”

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants

Indianapolis played zero defense Sunday at Pittsburgh, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw for an eye-popping 522 yards and six TDs as the Colts – 5-point faves – lost 51-34. Now the Colts (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) have to hit the road again for the Monday night contest.

Meanwhile, the Giants (3-4 SU and ATS) are coming off a much needed bye week after losing at Dallas 31-21 catching 4.5 points.

“At this spread, I’m expecting some sharps to be on the home dog coming off a bye, but I’d be wary to bring it below the key number,” Lester said. “I think the Colts bounce back on Monday night.”

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:17 PM

NFL line watch: Hold out for prime points on Panthers

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had the bye week to figure out things after division losses to the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and has already gone down a point. If you're feeling super charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.

Spread to wait on

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2)

Early action is heavy on the Saints, with the public no doubt reacting to New Orleans’ huge victory over the Packers Sunday. And it’s likely to continue on the Saints through midweek, which could melt the number down another half-point and make the Panthers more attractive as we get close to kickoff.

New Orleans is a different team on real grass and has yet to win a game on the road – including losses at Atlanta and Cleveland. To be 0-4 away from home and a favorite against a decent team is a bit unusual, so it might be a good idea to hang loose on this game for a bit.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning tickets after this one.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:18 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 71-39 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
MIAMI is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at CINCINNATI (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (1 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (2 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 5) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 4) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (6 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (2 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 138-176 ATS (-55.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 100-138 ATS (-51.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-139 ATS (-45.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (6 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-48 ATS (+29.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 162-125 ATS (+24.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:19 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, Oct. 30

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 ET
New Orleans: 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Carolina: 16-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

Sunday, Nov. 2

San Diego at Miami, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 13-27 ATS off a road loss against a division rival
Miami: 37-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS after playing a game at home

Washington at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Washington: 4-8 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 2-8 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 2-9 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Jets at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 24-11 ATS off a home loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 25-47 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
Dallas: 16-11 OVER after the first month of the season

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
St Louis: 9-1 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Denver at New England, 4:25 ET
Denver: 6-16 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games
New England: 17-6 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Oakland at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 9-20 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in home lined games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 39-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Pittsburgh: 44-23 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Monday, Nov. 3

Indianapolis at NY Giants, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 24-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
New York: 72-37 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:20 PM

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 30

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Carolina's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

Sunday, November 2

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MINNESOTA
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Arizona is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Arizona
Dallas6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. KANSAS CITY
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Francisco10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games
Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games when playing Oakland
See more trends!

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games

Monday, November 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:20 PM

NFL
Dunkel

New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints head to Carolina on Thursday night and face a Panthers team that is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. Carolina is the pick (+3). according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Carolina (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.460; Carolina 133.769
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2

Game 451-452: San Diego at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 134.534; Miami 137.978
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Under

Game 453-454: Jacksonville at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.104; Cincinnati 133.700
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.456; Cleveland 131.497
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Washington at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.958; Minnesota 130.481
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Philadelphia at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.073; Houston 133.242
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: NY Jets at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 122.816; Kansas City 143.891
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 21; 45
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 9 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-9 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Arizona at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.908; Dallas 135.812
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4); Under

Game 465-466: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.897; San Francisco 138.657
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 13; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Over

Game 467-468: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 142.499; New England 143.484
Dunkel Line: New England by 1; 52
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.664; Seattle 135.186
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 15; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+15); Under

Game 471-472: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.551; Pittsburgh 137.412
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Pick; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh; Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 473-474: Indianapolis at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.934; NY Giants 131.955
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 52
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:22 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday
Saints (3-4) @ Panthers (3-4-1)—Battle for first in NFC South between teams with sub-.500 records. Saints are 0-4 on road (were favored in three of four), with three losses by 3 or less points; they lost 26-24 (-6.5) at Cleveland in only other outdoor game so far this season. Carolina is 1-4-1 in last six games after its 2-0 start; they scored total of 26 points (2 TD’s on last 20 drives) in last two games, but are 2-2 at home, beating Lions/Bears. Panthers are 0-4 with even/negative turnover ratio, scoring 11.3 ppg in those four games. Saints lost last seven road games overall; they’re 0-7 in last seven games as road favorites. Panthers are 6-5 as home dog under Rivera. Five of last six Carolina games, three of last four Saint games went over total.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:23 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Saints at Panthers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 49)

A vintage performance by Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints back in the playoff picture in the woeful NFC South Division. The Saints, however, are going to have to prove they can win on the road to secure a spot and their next test comes Thursday night when they visit the Carolina Panthers. Brees passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night's win over Green Bay, but New Orleans has dropped seven straight regular-season road games.

Carolina has just one win since beginning the season with back-to-back victories but still finds itself percentage points atop the division thanks to its tie against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The Panthers blew a late lead last week against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle, squandering several opportunities in the red zone in a 13-9 loss. Carolina has won four of the last five games in the series.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 2-point road faves, but are now -2.5. The total opened 48.5 and is up to 49.

INJURY REPORT: Saints - C Jonathan Goodwin (Questionable, leg), RB Khiry Robinson (Questionable, forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (Doubtful, ribs). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (Questionable, ankle), G Amini Silatolu (Questionable, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-2) - Panthers (+1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-50s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had his best game as a professional last week, rushing for one score and catching a touchdown pass in New Orleans' 44-23 victory. Cooks' performance helped take some of the pressure off tight end Jimmy Graham who is still slowed by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable. New Orleans is ranked second in the NFL in total offense and fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Running back DeAngelo Williams declared himself "ready to roll" for Thursday's game, the first time in four games since he injured an ankle. Williams rushed for 210 yards against the Saints in 2012 and will likely share duties with Jonathan Stewart in the backfield for the Panthers, who rank 27th in rushing offense. Defense has been a problem, however, as Carolina has surrendered at least 37 points four times this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Saints last four games overall.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 64 percent of wagers are supporting the visiting Saints.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:23 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 30

Clear skies on tap for Thursday Night Football

It should be a great night for football in Carolina when the Panthers host the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.

here should be clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50's for the game, with a very slight three mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeast endzone.

The Panthers are currently -3point home underdogs with the total sitting at 49.

Plenty of line movement in Thursday night matchup

Since opening as a pick'em, the line for the Thursday night matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers has seen plenty of movement. And it has been all towards the Saints.

The Saints have been steadily bet all the way to 3-point road favorites for the NFC South showdown.

New Orleans is winless on the road this season and are just 1-3 against the spread in those games, while Carolina is 2-2 at home and 3-1 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-30-2014, 12:24 PM

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 9 line moves

NFL Week 9 odds have been on the board since late Sunday and have already seen some significant jumps, with wiseguys quickly getting down on those spreads.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: -2

Early action hit the Chargers and moved this line as many as 1.5 points before coming back to Dolphins -2 by midweek. Most books are dealing this between -1.5 and -2 as of Wednesday afternoon. Miami has won back-to-back games and hosts a San Diego team making a cross-country trip to South Beach.

“I don’t think it has the impact nowadays,” Kaminsky says of the Bolts’ West-to-East trek. “What with the ease of travel and all the comforts they have. There used to be a theory of West teams having the edge coming East for late games, but I don’t buy into those things.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -13, Move: -11

The Bengals have fallen out of favor with NFL bettors after a hot start to the season. Cincinnati opened 3-0 SU and ATS and have since posted a 1-2-1 SU mark and covered just once in that span. Bettors played against the Bengals versus Baltimore last week, which ended up being a big positive for the books with Cincy winning 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Wiseguys, however, have been partial to Jacksonville all season, covering in two of the last three weeks.

“We opened Cincinnati -13 and pop, pop, pop on the dog,” says Kaminsky. “The Bengals looked great to start the year. I even thought they were the real deal. Then they went in the tank. That win over Baltimore last Sunday was a big decision for us.”

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: OTB

This spread has yet to see the light of day with books waiting on the Redskins’ QB plans. Robert Griffin III could return under center but with the inspiring performance of third-stringer Colt McCoy against Dallas Monday, there may be no rush to test RG3’s tender ankle.

According to oddsmakers, Washington would be a +1.5 underdog with Griffin in and a +3 pup with McCoy taking snaps Sunday. Kaminsky, however, doesn’t agree with the spread difference between those two players.

“I think +1.5 is too low,” he says. “I think if (Griffin) plays, it should be Redskins +2. If he doesn’t, and they go with McCoy, it should be Redskins +3.”

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Another spread on hold is the line for Sunday’s showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys are being very vague when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury with contradicting reports floating around on the QB’s status.

According to Kaminsky, the line would be Dallas -4 with Romo active and a pick’em if Dallas has to go with backup Brandon Weeden. Despite that swing in possible lines, Romo’s value to the spread isn’t what it used to be.

“I think it’s diminished,” Kaminsky says of Romo’s impact on the odds. “With the way the offensive line is playing and the way DeMarco Murray is running, it’s not what it used to be.”

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots – Open: +3.5, Move: +3

While this line move isn’t the biggest on the Week 9 board, a significant amount of money has come in on New England as a rare underdog at home. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

“We took quite a bit of money on New England already,” says Kaminsky. “We opened Denver -3.5 (-105) and now we’re at Denver -3 (-115). I can’t see it going much further than that, though. The Patriot look good now, but I don’t know how you stop (Peyton) Manning. There aren’t any defense right now that can stop him.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -2, Move: +1

This classic AFC North battle is always entertaining and gets the big stage on Sunday night. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite at home after a dominating performance over the Colts in Week 8. Regardless, bettors are backing the Ravens and have forced books to jump the fence on this spread, making Baltimore road chalk.

“It’s all Baltimore money. And it’s a bit surprising to me,” admits Kaminsky. “I’m not a big fan of Pittsburgh but they’ve had two good wins over Indianapolis and over Houston on Monday night. Baltimore is the better team right now and I guess you have to give them that respect.”

Announcement

The Bum's NFL Novembers Best Bets-Trends-News !

The Bum's NFL Novembers Best Bets-Trends-News !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment