The Bum's NBA October - Novemberr Best Bets-Trends,Stats,News !

[StarDust Bum]

RATED PLAYS

1 - 1.............................*****

1 - 0.............................DOUBLE PLAY

1 - 0.............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 0 ............................SLAM DUNK


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/28/14 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 5-*1-*0 83.33% +1950


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Wednesday, October 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Charlotte - Over 193 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +7 500 *****
Indiana - Under 189.5 500 *****

Brooklyn - 7:30 PM ET Brooklyn +1 500
Boston - Under 194 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Washington +4 500
Miami - Under 188 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Toronto -4 500
Toronto - Over 200 500 *****

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Memphis -7.5 500 SLAM DUNK
Memphis - Over 197 500 SLAM DUNK

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET New York +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY
New York - Over 185 500

Detroit - 9:00 PM ET Denver -6.5 500
Denver - Over 206.5 500

Houston - 9:00 PM ET Houston -3 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Utah - Under 202 500

L.A. Lakers - 10:00 PM ET Phoenix -12 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Phoenix - Under 207.5 500

Golden State - 10:00 PM ET Golden State -4.5 500 *****
Sacramento - Under 205 500 *****

Oklahoma City - 10:30 PM ET Oklahoma City +9 500
Portland - Under 198.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

RATED PLAYS

4 - 3.............................*****

2 - 1.............................DOUBLE PLAY

2 - 1.............................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ............................SLAM DUNK


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/29/14 11-*13-*0 45.83% -*1650 Detail

10/28/14 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 16-*14-*0 53.33% +300

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the NBA championship this season.......

3-1-- Cavaliers-- How long before they're a cohesive unit?

4-1-- Spurs-- Five rings but have never repeated.

6-1-- Bulls-- Can they stay healthy?

7-1-- Thunder-- What will record be when Durant comes back?

10-1-- Clippers-- At least there's one good team in Los Angeles.

15-1-- Rockets-- Let some good players walk last summer.

**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend.......

13) Saints lost their last seven road games and were favored in most of them; after this game, a 4-4 team will be in first place at halfway point in the NFC South. Three of NO’s four road losses were by three or less points.

12) Florida State has a dicey road game at Louisville; Seminoles are only favored by 3.5 points, which seems very low. Bobby Petrino is a good coach; not sure his team is ready to pull this upset.

11) Chargers lost their last two games after a 5-1 start, now visit south Florida, where they haven’t won since the Kellen Winslow/OT playoff game in 1981- they’re 0-7 at Miami since then, losing a tight one LY.

10) Stanford beat Oregon the last two years, holding Ducks to total of 34 points; they’ll be hard-pressed to make it three in a row.

9) 7 of 13 NFL games this weekend have a spread of 3 or less points; there are four home underdogs this week. Over is 19-6 in primetime games this season.

8) Pitt-Duke played a 55-52 thriller LY, in their first meeting as ACC rivals; this year’s game won’t be like that one, but should be a good game.

7) Lot of new faces in new places as the NBA season kicks off; how long will it take the Cavaliers to become a cohesive unit? It took the Heat a month or so when Lebron James first went there.

6) Brett Bielema still hasn’t won an SEC game at Arkansas, but he’s pretty good at beating up Sun Belt teams like he did last week; his Razorbacks visit Starkville and the #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs, whose QB Prescott wore a walking boot for at least part of this week.

5) Will Tony Romo play? Would Dallas be better off if he didn’t play for a week or two? Arizona is 6-1 despite using three different QB’s, with only loss at Denver. Cardinals won their last three games with Dallas.

4) West Virginia beat Baylor at home two weeks ago, now the TCU Horned Frogs come east to Morgantown; Horned Frogs scored so many points last week, the school ran out of fireworks that they shoot off after every TCU score. Total in this game (74) is the week’s highest as I type this.

3) Steelers are retiring Mean Joe Greene’s number Sunday night; what took them so long? Ravens are 0-2 against the Bengals, 5-1 against everyone else- they’ve won five of last seven games against the Steelers.

2) Auburn-Ole Miss is the best SEC game this week; can the Rebels bounce back after getting beat at LSU last week? Will teams try to run scores up to impress the Selection Committee? Will the committee care about such things?

1) Broncos won, covered all four games since their bye, but they’ve lost last four visits to Foxboro, after blowing a big lead there LY. You know its a big game when they say Aaron Hernandez will be allowed to watch it on TV in prison.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA roundup: All's well between James, Gilbert

LeBron James and team owner Dan Gilbert, both commenting on the eve of the Cleveland Cavaliers' season opener, are on the same page about their relationship with the same common goal in mind.

"I think it's really good," James said Wednesday when asked about his relationship with the Cavs owner. Gilbert described their relationship as "very good, very solid."

Their relationship turned cold four years ago when James left Cleveland for Miami.

The Cavaliers open the season Thursday night when they host the New York Knicks.

---Rookie forward Julius Randle broke the tibia bone in his right leg during the fourth quarter of the Los Angeles Lakers' season-opening, 108-90 loss to the Houston Rockets and underwent surgery on Wednesday to repair the fracture.

The Lakers said in an announcement that the surgery was performed by Dr. Donald Wiss at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. Randle is expected to make a full recovery but miss the remainder of the 2014-15 season.

Randle was the seventh overall pick in this year's draft out the University of Kentucky. As a freshman, he helped the Wildcats reach the national championship game, averaging 15 points and 10.4 rebounds. In his regular-season pro debut Tuesday, Randle came off the bench and scored two points in 14 minutes, hitting 1 of 3 shots from the field.

---The Charlotte Hornets exercised their fourth-year option on forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and their third-year option on forward Cody Zeller.

Kidd-Gilchrist, has averaged 8.2 points and 5.6 rebounds in 25.2 minutes in 140 career games since being selected with the second overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.

Zeller, the fourth overall pick in 2013, averaged 6.0 points and 4.3 rebounds in 17.3 minutes in 82 games as a rookie.

---The Dallas Mavericks waived guard Gal Mekel, who averaged 2.4 points, 2.0 assists and 9.4 minutes in 31 games last season.

The Israel native spent the entire exhibition season with the Mavericks, averaging 7.6 points, 3.9 assists, 1.8 rebounds and 19.4 minutes in eight games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
The Clippers host an Oklahoma City team that is coming off a 106-89 loss at Portland last night and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing with 0 days rest. LA is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30

Game 501-502: Washington at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.302; Orlando 112.877
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: New York at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.091; Cleveland 129.121
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 21; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-10 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.872; Minnesota 120.412
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4); Under

Game 507-508: Utah at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 115.205; Dallas 122.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+10 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 114.219; LA Clippers 130.398
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 16; 208
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10 1/2); Over




NBA

Thursday, October 30

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ORLANDO
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Orlando is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Orlando is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

8:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. CLEVELAND
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New York is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New York

8:30 PM
UTAH vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Utah is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games at home

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. LA CLIPPERS
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Clippers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
LA Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, October 30


Home favorites have a great night on the hardcourt

It was the first busy night in the Association and if you were backing home favorites you probably went home happy.

Home favorites went an impressive 8-3 against the spread Wednesday night, hitting almost 73 percent of the time. Straight up home favorites went a perfect 11-0.

There are four more home favorites on the court Thursday night with Minnesota -4 hosting Detroit, Cleveland -12 versus New York, Dallas -10.5 versus Utah and the Los Angeles Clippers -11 versus Oklahoma City.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 30

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WASHINGTON (0 - 1) at ORLANDO (0 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 42-67 ATS (-31.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 151-190 ATS (-58.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
ORLANDO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 70-91 ATS (-30.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 0) - 10/30/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-3 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 5-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (0 - 1) at DALLAS (0 - 1) - 10/30/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 98-73 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-2 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (0 - 1) at LA CLIPPERS (0 - 0) - 10/30/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 295-245 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

RATED PLAYS

4 - 3.............................*****

2 - 1.............................DOUBLE PLAY

2 - 1.............................TRIPLE PLAY

2 - 1 ............................SLAM DUNK


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/29/14 11-*13-*0 45.83% -*1650 Detail

10/28/14 5-*1-*0 83.33% +*1950 Detail

Totals 16-*14-*0 53.33% +300



Thursday, October 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington -4.5 500 *****
Orlando - Under 188.5 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Minnesota - Over 204.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

New York - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland -12.5 500
Cleveland - Under 203.5 500

Utah - 8:30 PM ET Utah +10.5 500 *****
Dallas - Over 202.5 500 ******

Oklahoma City - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -13 500 SLAM DUNK
L.A. Clippers - Under 203.5 500 SLAM DUNK

[StarDust Bum]

RATED PLAYS:

8 - 9.........................................*****

4 - 5 ........................................DOUBLE PLAY

6 - 4 ........................................TRIPLE PLAY

5 - 5 ........................................SLAM DUNK


RATED PLAYS AND OPINONS:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/04/14 9-*7-*0 56.25% +650 Detail

11/03/14 3-*9-*0 25.00% -*3450 Detail

11/02/14 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*1250 Detail

11/01/14 12-*10-*2 54.55% +*500 Detail

Totals 27-*31-*2 46.55% -*3550

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 10 approaching

-- Bengals are 12-1-1 in last fourteen home games.

-- Broncos are 10-4 as a road favorite.

-- Cowboys are 1-6 in last seven pre-bye games.

-- Saints are 16-3-1 in last 20 non-divisional games.

-- Steelers are 3-8 in last 11 games as a road favorite.

-- Arizona is 8-3-1 in its last dozen home games.

**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) This will remain fluid for the rest of the month, but if the college football tournament started today, the semi-finals would be:
-- Mississippi State vs Oregon
-- Florida State vs Auburn.

Alabama and TCU are the first two teams on the outside looking in.

12) Going to miss those political ads on TV—well, no I’m not. Whats the old joke? How do you know if a politician is lying? If his/her lips are moving.

11) Supposedly, Alex Rodriguez paid his cousin $1M to keep quiet about PED’s. Damn, I wish someone would pay me $1M to shut my mouth; I’d make Shields & Yarnell look like freakin’ auctioneers.

10) This is the month MAC football takes over ESPNU and ESPN2 on Tuesday, Wednesdays; I think Akron’s last four games are all on Tuesday nights.

I used to joke that teams would play at 4am if ESPN wanted them to, then the basketball tip-off marathon was born (Nov 18 this year) when there are actually games played at 6am and 8am local time in the east. It must help the schools involved or they wouldn’t do it.

9) European golfers Marcel Siem and Alexander Levy openly wagered 200 Euros (roughly $252) on each round of their tournament last week; not sure the powers-that-be were all that excited about openly gambling on a match during a tournament. Phil Mickelson is notorious for wagering on practice rounds, but that’s different.

8) Quick look at QB situations in the NFC East find Dallas/Philly starting different QBs this month because of injury. Washington started three different QB’s in their last three games then there are the Giants, where Eli Manning has started their last 158 games without a miss. The immobile Manning is struggling behind a shaky OL, but he plays every week and that’s important, to be a dependable player.

7) Phillies are rumored to be shopping 1B Ryan Howard, who can’t move, can’t hit lefties and makes $20M a year. Good luck there.

Only places I could conceive of him being useful would be Baltimore/Texas/Houston, AL teams with small home parks, but the Orioles are too smart for that. I guess Texas is a possibility. If the Astros traded for him it would be intriguing, since they’ve tried so hard to make Jonathan Singleton their 1B of the future.

6) If you live in Indianapolis, you might vote at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where Butler plays its basketball games and where the final basketball scenes in Hoosiers were shot. How cool would that be, voting where Jimmy Chitwood ran the picket fence.

5) Cleveland Indians gave Terry Francona a much-deserved contract extension thru 2018; I enjoyed listening to him on TV, but glad he is doing well running a ballclub. Still think the Red Sox screwed up getting rid of him, though they won a World Series with John Farrell, after the Bobby Valentine debacle.

4) Cleveland Browns are a surprising/uplifting 5-3, but QB Brian Hoyer’s contract is up after this year and the team has a lot of $$ tied up in Johnny Manziel. This has to be the owner’s call I would think, whether to re-sign Hoyer or plunge forward with Manziel. Am very curious to see what they do, because their players are watching too. You know damn well Hoyer has the other players’ trust. Cutting him loose would be very risky business.

3) Rockets 108, Heat 89-- Houston is off to a 5-0 start despite whiffing in their free agent dealings. Rockets made 17 of 36 behind the arc. Think the Thunder miss James Harden? He had 25 points, 9 rebounds, 10 assists in this game.

Kostas Papanikolaou has done really well replacing Chandler Parsons as a shooter; Houston was +17 when he was on the court in this game, even when he was off.

2) I highly recommend getting the NBA League Pass, tremendous entertainment on nights where there is a full schedule of games.

1) Cubs are said to be going heavily after free agent catcher Russell Martin, who will use the lack of quality catchers to become really, really rich this winter. Hope the Cubs are saving lot of money to buy some pitchers- thats what wins.

[StarDust Bum]

Six signs of a losing sports bet

Over the course of your sports betting career, you’re going to lose a good chunk of wagers for a million different reasons.

A missed field goal. A meaningless 3-pointer. A wild pitch. An empty-net goal. An injury to the star quarterback. The list goes on and on…

Some of those bet-busting phenomena are out of your hands, but some losing bets leave you smacking yourself in the forehead wondering, “What the hell was I thinking?!”

Most bad bets have tells – like a poor poker player - that you should look for before heading to the counter or clicking “OK”. We polled some of Covers Experts' sharpest handicappers to find out the “Six Signs of a Losing Bet”:

Betting against streaks

Steve Merril says it best: “Don’t try and catch a falling knife.”

All streaks come to an end and figuring out when is a high-risk, high-reward game. When sizing up a team on an extended losing slide, it may be best to wait until that club shows some signs of life and snaps the skid before getting down on them.

An old rule of thumb when it comes to sports betting is “never bet on a bad team”. While that may not sit right with some, it’s safe to say you should never bet on a bad team when they’re playing badly. That's just dumb.

Skewed stats/record

Often times the result on the scoreboard doesn’t quite reflect how a game played out. Teams can get completely outplayed on both ends, but turnovers or a couple costly errors from the other side can mask those troubles.

Marc Lawrence preaches in-depth stats-to-record research, coining the term “leaking oil” for those clubs that keep winning despite being outgained in their last three contests.

“When they're installed as a favorite, I will generally make a case against them as they are obviously not playing their best ball of the season,” Lawrence says of those team "leaking oil".

He points to the Missouri Tigers’ 24-14 lackluster win over Vanderbilt in Week 9, in which they failed to cover as big 22.5-point favorites after getting out-yarded in the three games previous.

Public overkill

The betting public is far more knowledgeable than ever before but there are still times in which too much “square” love is a bad thing. Many professionals are contrarian by nature and, while you shouldn’t blindly fade the public’s favorite plays each and every time, you can find good value on the other side of these public picks.

This past Saturday, for example, almost 65 percent of Consensus was on Georgia -11.5 versus Florida in their annual SEC rivalry game - the third-most public play for all Saturday's betting action. The Gators rushed for 418 yards and dominated time of possession, stunning UGA 38-20 and a taking a bite of the public's pockets.

Poor chemistry

It can be a new-look roster failing to jell, like the struggles we saw from the Miami Heat’s “Big Three” in 2010 (2-12 ATS skid in November 2010), or turmoil in the locker room between players and coaches, like what we’re currently seeing with the Chicago Bears – chemistry is key when betting on team sports.

Art Aronson of AAA Sports is always conscience of how a team is getting along, on and off the field of play. He faded Chicago, with tension rising between players and head coach Marc Trestman, when the Bears played at New England in Week 8. The line opened Chicago +7 and was bet down to +5.5 before the wheels came off the Monsters of the Midway, losing 51-23.

“Bettors who figured that the Bears would be able to set aside their difference and have enough bite to at least cover against the Pats in Foxboro were ripping up tickets well before halftime,” says Aronson. “They learned a valuable lesson - it’s hard enough to win in the NFL and when a team can’t set aside its differences and play together, it’s often impossible.”

Injury impact

Factoring how much an injury plays into the outcome of a game is one of the most difficult tasks a sports bettor can face. Often times a big-name injury can be overvalued, with oddsmakers making a slight adjustment to the odds and the betting public piling on.

Other injuries - ones that don’t command a knee-jerk modification to the line - can have a much bigger effect on a team and how they perform. Misreading into these missing players can quickly spoil a wager.

Georgia recently lost star RB Todd Gurley to suspension and bettors were quick to go against the Bulldogs in their game versus Missouri. However, a program like UGA has plenty of depth on the roster and rumbled for 210 rushing yards in a 34-0 blowout as a 3-point favorite.

On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns recently lost starting center Alex Mack to a broken leg – an injury that barely made a blip on the betting radar. With Mack making the snaps, Cleveland erupted for huge gains on the ground. But since his injury in Week 6 the Browns have run for an average of only 52.7 yards in the last three games, and because of it have gone just 1-2 ATS in that span.

Bad line

There’s a reason the wiseguys wager earlier in the week. Sharp money jumps on opening lines quickly, trimming valuable half points off the spreads and sucking as much as 20 to 30 cents out of the moneylines.

If you’re not betting on a football game – that’s had odds posted all week – until kickoff, chances are you’re not getting the best line for your buck. But, as we painfully know, that isn’t always enough to put on the breaks.

Betting for the sake of betting can instantly make any wager a losing wager. Football odds are tightening up this time of year, with books and bettors having a clear idea of what teams are all about. And the fresh NHL and NBA lines will stiffen up with every game played.

Those missed half points on the spread, handful of points on the total, and 30-cent differences on the moneyline are often the difference between winning and losing, whether immediately or over the course of the season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Indiana at Washington
The Pacers head to Washington tonight where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. Indiana is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 501-502: Orlando at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.473; Philadelphia 113.470
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under

Game 503-504: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 121.531; Charlotte 120.438
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: Toronto at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.381; Boston 118.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+1 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Minnesota at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 115.398; Brooklyn 125.550
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: New York at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.369; Detroit 121.394
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4); Under

Game 511-512: Indiana at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.456; Washington 121.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 9 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Chicago at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 125.229; Milwaukee 116.254
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Atlanta at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 124.228; San Antonio 129.633
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 202
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+8); Under

Game 517-518: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 123.253; Phoenix 120.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 195
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Over

Game 519-520: Cleveland at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.635; Utah 116.809
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Denver at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.052; Sacramento 122.484
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 5 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 2 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-2 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: LA Clippers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 125.384; Golden State 125.731
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+3); Under

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, November 5

Hot Teams
-- Miami won/covered its first three games.
-- Raptors won/covered three of first four games.
-- Brooklyn won last two games by 12-31 points.
-- Washington won/covered its last three games.
-- Bulls won three of first four games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Grizzlies won first four games, covering last three. Phoenix won three of its first four games.
-- Sacramento won last three games, by 9-6-5 points.
-- Warriors won/covered their first three games. Clippers won three of first four games, but are 0-4 vs spread-- all four games were decided by 7 or less points.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando, Philly both lost first four games (each 1-3 vs spread).
-- Hornets lost last three games, by 2-3-9 points.
-- Boston lost last two games by 14-5 points; home team won all three of its games.
-- Minnesota is 1-2 SU, covering all three; three games were decided by total of 11 points.
-- Pistons lost first three games by 10-6-12 points. New York split first four games (1-3 vs spread)- road team covered all four games.
-- Pacers lost last three games by 8-10-6 points.
-- Bucks split their first four games (3-1 vs spread).
-- Hawks, Spurs both split first two games (each 0-2 vs spread).
-- Utah lost three of its first four games. Cavaliers lost two of their first three games.
-- Nuggets lost last two games, by 11-5 points.

Series Records
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Orlando.
-- Miami swept the Hornets 4-0 in playoffs LY; they've won 19 in a row against Charlotte (8-2 vs spread last ten).
-- Celtics lost four of last five games with Toronto, but Raptors are only 1-11 in last dozen visits to Beantown.
-- Nets lost seven of last ten games with Minnesota.
-- Knicks won 12 of last 15 games with Detroit.
-- Pacers beat Washington 4-2 in LY's playoffs; they won last three trips here, but that was when they were healthy.
-- Bulls won four of last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Spurs won last seven games (5-2 vs spread) with Atlanta.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Phoenix.
-- Jazz lost last three games with Cleveland by 3-11-20 points.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Denver.
-- Clippers beat Golden State 4-3 in LY's playoffs, but they've lost seven of last eight visits to Oakland.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Orlando-Philly games stayed under.
-- Three of first four games for both Hornets/Heat went over total.
-- Three of first four Toronto games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota-Brooklyn games went over.
-- First three Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four games for both Pacers/Wizards went over total.
-- Over is 5-2 in Bulls' last seven visits to Milwaukee.
-- Four of last six Hawk-Spur games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-0 in Grizzlies' last seven visits to Phoenix.
-- Last three Utah games went over total.
-- Three of four Sacramento games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper-Warrior games went over.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 11-3 ATS: West 10-4
East teams HF vs West: 2-2
East teams HU vs West: 1-1
West teams HF vs East: 5-1
West teams HU vs East: 2-0

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NBA

Wednesday, November 5

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-22 SU in its last 24 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games when playing Miami
Charlotte is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 16 of New York's last 24 games on the road
New York is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Detroit is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against New York

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Toronto is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. BROOKLYN
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Brooklyn is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Minnesota

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

9:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Utah
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games
Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

9:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. PHOENIX
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Phoenix is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

10:00 PM
DENVER vs. SACRAMENTO
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Sacramento is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Denver

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Clippers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Golden State's last 16 games when playing LA Clippers

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 5


Rockets hand Heat first ATS loss, extend under streak

The Houston Rockets continue to roll improving to 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread with their 108-91 win over the Miami Heat.

The game also went under the total and the Rockets are now 0-5 over/under on the season.

It was the Heat's first SU and ATS of the season and are now 3-1 SU/ATS.

Miami visits Charlotte Wednesday night and Houston hosts San Antonio Thursday.


Under was a strong play Tuesday night

Teams were playing lockdown defense in the NBA Tuesday night, making it a great night to bet the under.

The under went 6-2 in the Association Tuesday night, hitting 75 percent of the time. Much better than the season average of just over 49 percent.