The Bum's NBA October - Novemberr Best Bets-Trends,Stats,News !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, November 25


Bucks PG Brandon Knight, questionable Tuesday

Knight is questionable for Tuesday's game against the Pistons after suffering a quad injury.

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NBA
Dunkel

Atlanta at Washington
The Hawks head to Washington tonight to face a Wizards team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Atlanta is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 501-502: Atlanta at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.987; Washington 121.892
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Golden State at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 126.576; Miami 114.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 12 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 198
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5); Under

Game 505-506: Detroit at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.113; Milwaukee 117.172
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-3); Over

Game 507-508: Sacramento at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 125.096; New Orleans 123.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Chicago at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.799; Denver 122.830
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

November 25, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pistons are 7-0 ATS (7.07 ppg) since Jun 13, 2004 with at least two days rest after a game where their opponent shot at least 20 three pointers and made less than 25% of them.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Wizards are 0-15 OU (-12.1 ppg) since Jan 30, 2007 with less than five days rest after a game where they had at least 20 offensive rebounds.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Pistons are 0-13 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since Jan 07, 2014 if they are not 8+ point dogs after Brandon Jennings scored fewer than 10 points last game.

NBA BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Pelicans are 0-13 ATS (-10.0 ppg) as a rested favorite after a win on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Warriors are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since Nov 22, 2000 on the road when they allowed less than 90 points each of the past two games and at least one of those was one the road.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- San Diego State 74, Pitt 57-- Aztecs-Arizona in the Maui final tonight. K-State was impressive in its 72-68 loss to Arizona.

-- Broncos cut kicker Brandon McManus, signed Connor Barth.

-- Arkansas 78, SMU 72-- Mustangs continue to be overrated by media.

-- Villanova 60, Michigan 55-- Excellent game in Brooklyn

-- Maryland 72, Iowa State 63-- Terps re-did their roster, seem to be improved.

-- From the fine writer Bill Barnwell on the Interweb: Two years ago, Robert Griffin ran ball an average of eight times per game, producing an average of 54.3 ypg. In his five starts this season, Griffin has run the ball a total of just 22 times and produced an average of 20 rushing yards per game. No bueno.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in NFL.........

32) Jets— They don’t have the worst record, but they go in the tank the most, which is more of an indictment. Monday night they just looked disinterested.

31) Jaguars—This was a year where they could’ve stolen some division games; they’re 1-10. Houston and Tennessee will be improving in coming years too; when will the Jags get out of last place?

30) Raiders—Wonder if they’ll give Sparano the full-time coaching gig; they’ve played better since he took over.

29) Titans—Have to be encouraged with how Mettenberger has played; will they trade high draft pick for multiple picks?

28) Redskins—You wonder what the real problem is with this team; over the last 15 years, lot of bright people have tried to win there. All of them failed.

8) Chiefs—Thoughts and prayers to DB Eric Berry, who has a medical issue to deal with now. His absence will hurt the KC defense.

7) 49ers—Amazing how awful they’ve been in red zone this year; by far worst red zone offense in league. How are they so bad with a mobile QB?

6) Seahawks—Last time a defending Super Bowl champ won a playoff game? 2005 Patriots; been a long time.

5) Ravens—Impressive win Monday night in Superdome; that was a high-level game. Teams that win Super Bowl seem to be play well in that same building when they re-visit.

4) Cowboys—Are finding ways to win; Beasley helped them bigtime Sunday night. OL took game over on game-winning drive.

3) Broncos—Probably should be lower on list, but they scored 39 points on a day that started out with them looking disjointed and old. Will need home playoff games.

2) Packers—Pretty fun 4:00 game Sunday: Brady vs Rodgers at Lambeau. Wonder if Jonas Gray has more than one alarm clock now?

1) Patriots—Has anyone ever done less to get on a Sports Illustrated cover than Gray? One game and he’s a cover boy, then six days later, he never gets off the bench. Life is funny sometimes.

[StarDust Bum]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Lookahead spot

The Providence Friars find themselves ranked No. 25 in the country after knocking off Florida State and Notre Dame to win the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament – the first time since 2004 the Friars were among the Top 25. And they’ll put that ranking to the test this week.

Providence makes the trip to Lexington to play the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats Sunday. But before going up against a program some think could best an NBA team, the Friars host the Yale Bulldogs Friday afternoon. Yale is one of the top dogs in the Ivy League and have a tremendous talent in 6-foot-8 forward Justin Sears. With Providence looking ahead to UK, Yale could stun its Big East foe.

Letdown spot

Alabama-Birmingham had undefeated Marshall on the ropes last Saturday, and many major conference teams and those on the College Playoff Selection Committee were cheering for the Blazers. However, in the end, the Thundering Herd escaped with a five-point win and continue to be a big question mark when it comes to the postseason picture.

Alabama-Birmingham, on the other hand, has to shallow what could have been. The Blazers drag their feet into a road showdown in Southern Mississippi this weekend, set as 4-point favorites. The Golden Eagles have had two weeks to prepare for UAB and return a handful of key players from injury. With the Blazers still sore for last Saturday’s finish, Southern Miss could be a tough out at home.

Schedule spot

The Houston Rockets face a tall order this week without their big man in the middle. Center Dwight Howard is out indefinitely with a knee injury, throwing a major wrench into the Rockets defense, which ranks second overall in points allowed per game (91.7 ppg). Having Howard’s shot-blocking prowess in the paint allows Houston’s perimeter plays to cheat and jump the passing lanes, hoping to create quick turnovers – currently sitting third in steals with 9.1 per outing.

The Rockets’ depth will be on display – good or bad – with a stretch of three games in four nights this week. Houston hosts Sacramento Wednesday before Thanksgiving, then is back on the court against the Clippers Friday and travels overnight to Milwaukee to play the Bucks Saturday. The Rockets could be flying on fumes by the end of this stretch. They’re very dependent on their starters, playing the bench only 16 minutes per game.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, November 26

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won nine of last 12 games (0-2AU).
-- Warriors won last six games, covering four of last five.
-- Portland won its last eight games (6-2 vs spread).
-- Clippers won three of last four games (3-1AF).
-- Toronto won five in row, 10 of last 11 games (2-0AF). Hawks won six of their last eight games (5-1SUH, 0-0HU).
-- Bucks won six of their last nine games (5-3A).
-- Rockets won five of last seven games (2-3HF). Sacramento won four of last five games, covered nine of last 12.
-- Spurs won/covered six of their last seven games. Indiana won five of its last seven games (6-0A).
-- Nuggets won their last five games (4-0-1 vs spread). Phoenix won four of last five games (2-2HF).
-- Memphis won 12 of its first 14 games (2-2AF).

Cold Teams
-- 76ers are 0-14 this season (4-3HU). Nets lost six of their last seven games (2-5SUA, 0-0AF).
-- Cleveland lost four of its last five games (3-4HF).
-- Orlando lost three of its last four games (1-4HU).
-- Hornets lost their last six games (0-4-2 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost their last five games (0-5-1H).
-- Mavericks lost last two games by 3-11 points (4-1 last five HF).
-- Knicks lost eight of last ten games (3-3-1AU).
-- Minnesota lost seven of last eight games (2-3SUH).
-- Thunder lost their last six games (2-3-1 vs spread). Utah lost four of its last five games (4-4AU).
-- Lakers lost seven of last nine games (3-4HU).

Series Records
-- 76ers lost six of last eight games with Brooklyn.
-- Wizards won three of last four games with Cleveland.
-- Warriors lost eight of last eleven games with Orlando.
-- Hornets lost nine of last eleven games with Portland.
-- Detroit lost eight of last nine games with the Clippers.
-- Raptors won three of last four games with Atlanta.
-- Knicks lost eight of last twelve games with Dallas.
-- Bucks lost their last four games with Minnesota.
-- Rockets won 11 of last 15 games with Sacramento.
-- Thunder won 10 of last 14 games against the Jazz.
-- Pacers lost 10 of last 11 games with San Antonio.
-- Suns won their last four games with Denver.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Memphis.

Totals
-- Four of last five Brooklyn games stayed under.
-- Last five Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of seven Golden State road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Charlotte games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Clipper games.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games went over total.
-- Three of last four Dallas games went over total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games went over.
-- Under is 12-2 in Houston games this season.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in Thunder games this season.
-- Five of last seven Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Last four Phoenix games stayed under the total. Three of last four Denver games went over.
-- Last five Memphis road games stayed under total.

Back-to-Backs
-- Warriors are 2-1 if they played night before.
-- Detroit is 1-2 if they played night before.
-- Hawks are 0-1-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Milwaukee is 2-3 if it played night before.
-- Kings are 1-0 if they played the night before.
-- Denver is 1-0 if they played the night before.

East vs West
SU: West 49-20 ATS: West 43-26
East teams HF vs West: 8-13
East teams HU vs West: 6-11
West teams HF vs East: 13-12
West teams HU vs East: 6-0

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 26

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
BROOKLYN vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Brooklyn

7:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. CHARLOTTE
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Charlotte is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. ATLANTA
Toronto is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Atlanta
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Toronto

7:30 PM
NEW YORK vs. DALLAS
New York is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Dallas
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing New York

7:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. DETROIT
LA Clippers are 6-11-2 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the LA Clippers last 10 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

8:00 PM
UTAH vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Utah is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Oklahoma City
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Oklahoma City is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. MINNESOTA
Milwaukee is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Minnesota is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

8:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. HOUSTON
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Sacramento is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

8:30 PM
INDIANA vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indiana's last 23 games when playing San Antonio
Indiana is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Antonio's last 12 games when playing at home against Indiana

9:00 PM
DENVER vs. PHOENIX
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
Memphis is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 9 of the LA Lakers last 13 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 26


Knicks F Carmelo Anthony, out Wednesday

Anthony left Monday's game with back spasms and will not play Wednesday against the Mavericks.


Kings' F Rudy Gay, questionable Wednesday

Gay has an issue with his Achilles and did not play Tuesday. He is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Rockets.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, November 26

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BROOKLYN (5 - 8) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 14) - 11/26/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-54 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-52 ATS (-18.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 95-126 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 6-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (9 - 4) at CLEVELAND (6 - 7) - 11/26/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 94-132 ATS (-51.2 Units) in November games since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 5-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (11 - 2) at ORLANDO (6 - 10) - 11/26/2014, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 2-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 2-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (11 - 3) at CHARLOTTE (4 - 11) - 11/26/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (8 - 5) at DETROIT (3 - 11) - 11/26/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (12 - 2) at ATLANTA (7 - 5) - 11/26/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 57-43 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-4 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (4 - 11) at DALLAS (10 - 5) - 11/26/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (8 - 7) at MINNESOTA (3 - 9) - 11/26/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (9 - 5) at HOUSTON (11 - 3) - 11/26/2014, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (5 - 10) at OKLAHOMA CITY (3 - 12) - 11/26/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 302-251 ATS (+25.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 61-43 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 123-84 ATS (+30.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (6 - 8) at SAN ANTONIO (9 - 4) - 11/26/2014, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 3-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (7 - 7) at PHOENIX (9 - 6) - 11/26/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 146-194 ATS (-67.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
PHOENIX is 60-35 ATS (+21.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (12 - 2) at LA LAKERS (3 - 11) - 11/26/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 3-2 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Toronto at Atlanta
The Raptors head to Atlanta tonight to face the Hawks (5-1 SU at home) and come into the contest with a 15-7 ATS record in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record. Toronto is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Game 701-702: Brooklyn at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 115.280; Philadelphia 109.165
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+8 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Washington at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.087; Cleveland 125.616
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Golden State at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 124.692; Orlando 118.226
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 9; 203
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+9); Over

Game 707-708: Portland at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.261; Charlotte 115.853
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 195
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6); Over

Game 709-710: LA Clippers at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 121.058; Detroit 117.018
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8); Under

Game 711-712: Toronto at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 126.295; Atlanta 120.471
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 6; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3); Under

Game 713-714: New York at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 118.312; Dallas 128.886
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 12 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: New York (+10 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.266; Minnesota 113.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 203
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Over

Game 717-718: Sacramento at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 120.599; Houston 126.690
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Utah at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 114.417; Oklahoma City 115.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+4 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: Indiana at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.387; San Antonio 131.530
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 220
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 723-724: Denver at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.528; Phoenix 128.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2); Over

Game 725-726: Memphis at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 125.701; LA Lakers 117.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, November 26

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Game of the Day: Wizards at Cavaliers
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Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5, 199)

The Washington Wizards' status as a legitimate Eastern Conference contender might be in jeopardy if they suffer a second consecutive loss Wednesday against the host Cleveland Cavaliers. The Wizards have the second-best record in the East but were sloppy in a 106-102 home loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Now they get a Cleveland team that also has something to prove after a disappointing start to the season.

The Cavaliers snapped a four-game skid with an emphatic 106-74 win over Orlando on Monday, turning in their best defensive effort of the season as they held the Magic to 36.3 percent shooting and scored 25 points off 18 turnovers. The Wizards claimed a 91-78 win over the Cavaliers on Friday in Washington, holding Cleveland to a season-low 36 percent from the floor. "It will be a tough, heart-felt game like it was in Washington," Cleveland guard Kyrie Irving told reporters. "We're at home this time and know that we have to come out with a lot better focus, move the basketball and trust each other on both ends of the floor."

LINE HISTORY: The Cavs opened as 6-point home faves but that has moved to -6.5. The total opened 198 and has gone up to 199.

INJURY REPORT: Washington - F Otto Porter (questionable Wednesday, hamstring), F Nene (questionable Wednesday, foot). Cleveland - N/A.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (9-4): Washington made it close late Tuesday against Atlanta, but it wasn't pretty for much of the night for the Wizards, who committed a season-high 25 turnovers. John Wall (19.5 points, 9.4 assists) and Bradley Beal (15.8 points) combined for 13 of those miscues, and Beal struggled to 4-of-14 from the field on an uncharacteristic night for the star backcourt duo. The Wizards also have a tough post duo in Marcin Gortat (12.5 points, 9.1 rebounds) and Nene (10.6 points, 4.7 rebounds), though Nene (plantar fasciitis) sat out Tuesday and is questionable against Cleveland.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (6-7): LeBron James (25 points, 7.2 assists, 5.8 rebounds) has been critical of his own play at times but has recorded back-to-back double-doubles after putting up 29 points and 11 assists against Orlando. Irving (21.1 points, 4.8 assists) has done a nice job of adjusting to playing alongside James, but Kevin Love (16.2 points, 9.8 rebounds) hasn't been consistently involved in the offense. Love's presence in the post has aided Anderson Varejao, though, as the big man is averaging 15 points and 9.5 rebounds over the past four games and has scored in double figures in nine of 13 contests this season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
* Under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Cleveland.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, there is a slight, slight lean towards the Wizards at 50.63 percent.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, November 26

Brooklyn at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
Brooklyn: 10-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half
Philadelphia: 18-39 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points

Washington at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Washington: 13-4 ATS in road games against Central division opponents
Cleveland: 14-26 ATS as a favorite

Golden State at Orlando, 7:05 ET
Golden State: n/a
Orlando: n/a

Portland at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
Portland: 28-14 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread
Charlotte: 9-23 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses

LA Clippers at Detroit, 7:35 ET
LA Clippers: n/a
Detroit: n/a

Toronto at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Toronto: 30-17 ATS in road games
Atlanta: 14-28 ATS in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games

New York at Dallas, 7:35 ET
New York: n/a
Dallas: n/a

Milwaukee at Minnesota, 8:05 ET
Milwaukee: n/a
Minnesota: n/a

Sacramento at Houston, 8:05 ET
Sacramento: n/a
Houston: n/a

Utah at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Utah: 14-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread
Oklahoma City: 54-30 ATS off a home loss

Indiana at San Antonio, 8:35 ET
Indiana: n/a
San Antonio: n/a

Denver at Phoenix, 9:05 ET
Denver: 146-194 ATS when playing on back-to-back days
Phoenix: 21-10 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog

Memphis at LA Lakers, 10:35 ET
Memphis: 33-18 ATS after a win by 10 points or more
LA Lakers: 30-16 OVER after playing a home game

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Wednesday

November 26, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The 76ers are 0-15 ATS (-7.63 ppg) since March 2012 as a dog when their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Lakers are 10-0 OU (12.70 ppg) since May 18, 2012 after scoring at least 15 points less than expected last game.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Wizards are 11-0-1 OU (11.54 ppg) since Mar 18, 2014 after Marcin Gortat took fewer than 10 shots last game.

NBA BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Nets are 9-0 ATS (13.33 ppg) on the road after a double digit road loss in which they did not shoot better than 40% from the field.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Wizards are 8-0 ATS (12.25 ppg) since Feb 12, 2012 an after John Wall had at least 5 turnovers in a home loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet

November 26, 2014

Wizards at Cavaliers (-6 ½, 199) – 7:05 PM EST

Cleveland snapped a four-game skid on Monday with a resounding 106-74 victory over Orlando as 11-point favorites. The Cavs busted the 100-point mark for the first time in five contests, while cashing the ‘under’ for the fifth straight game. Cleveland can move back to .500 with a win tonight over a Washington squad that handled them last Friday night at the Verizon Center, as the Wizards cruised to a 91-78 triumph as 1 ½-point home underdogs.

The Wizards are back on the court following a 106-102 home defeat to the Hawks last night as four-point favorites. The score doesn’t reflect how the game unfolded for Washington, who trailed by as many as 13 points and hit a handful of three-pointers down the stretch to make the loss seem more competitive. Washington has won four of its past five games on the road, but owns an 0-2 SU/ATS record in the role of an away underdog.

Raptors (-3 ½, 204 ½) at Hawks – 7:35 PM EST

Toronto looks to keep its victory train going, traveling down to Atlanta for its second meeting with the Hawks this season. The Raptors held off the Hawks in the opener, 109-102 to cover as 4 ½-point favorites, even though Toronto built a 19-point lead in the second half before a late Atlanta rally. Dwane Casey’s team owns an Eastern Conference-best 12-2 record after edging the Suns on Monday, 104-100, the fifth straight win for Toronto. However, the Raps are playing just their second road game since November 7, as Toronto has won three of four on the highway this season.

The Hawks put up an impressive road effort in Tuesday’s 104-100 victory at Washington, as Jeff Teague paced Atlanta with 28 points. Atlanta has won six of its past eight games since a 1-3 start, while being listed in the home underdog role for the first time this season. The Hawks have turned into one of the better ‘over’ teams in the league with an 8-4 mark, including three straight ‘overs’ with totals listed above 200.

Kings at Rockets – 8:05 PM EST

Plenty of injuries to key parts in this contest tonight as Dwight Howard has missed the past three games for Houston with a knee injury. The Rockets have managed to win twice in this stretch without their All-Star center, including Monday’s 91-86 victory over the Knicks, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. James Harden led the way for Houston with 36 points, including hitting seven three-pointers as the Rockets are a perfect 7-0 to the ‘under’ this season at the Toyota Center.

The Kings picked up their third straight win last night at New Orleans, 99-89, in spite of Rudy Gay and Darren Collison sidelined due to injuries. Gay is likely out again tonight, while Collison is listed as questionable with a quad injury. Sacramento improved to 5-1 ATS as a road underdog with Tuesday’s victory, while the Kings are playing with no rest for just the second time this season, winning at Denver in this situation earlier this month.

Pacers at Spurs – 8:35 PM EST

Indiana is running out of healthy bodies by the day as it continues its swing through Texas. The Pacers pulled off a nice upset of the Mavericks on Monday night as 14-point underdogs, 111-100, while knocking down 13 three-pointers. To put in perspective how rare that offensive output was Frank Vogel’s team, the Pacers last broke the 100-point mark on opening night against the 76ers, a 12-game separation in between the elusive three-digit plateau. Roy Hibbert missed the upset at Dallas with a knee injury and is expected to sit out again tonight, while the Pacers look to improve on a 6-0 ATS mark as a road underdog this season.

The Spurs just keep taking care of business without anybody noticing, as the defending champions are 9-4 and riding a four-game winning streak after beating the Nets on Saturday, 99-87 as 10-point home favorites. San Antonio’s defense has limited six straight opponents to 94 points or less, while cashing the ‘under’ five times in this stretch. The Spurs have won nine of the past 10 meetings in this series (which doesn’t mean much with Indiana’s injury list), while Gregg Popovich’s team is 7-1 ATS the previous eight games since starting the season at 0-5 ATS.

Nuggets at Suns (-6 ½, 215 ½) – 9:05 PM EST

Who woke up the Nuggets? Denver began the season at 2-7, but the Nuggets have won five consecutive games, coming off last night’s 114-109 victory over the Bulls to barely cash as 4 ½-point favorites. Brian Shaw’s club has won three of their past four games away from the Pepsi Center, including wins in the underdog role at Cleveland and Indiana. The Nuggets are playing with major revenge tonight after losing all four meetings with the Suns last season, as Phoenix was listed as a home favorite of just 1 ½ point in each of its two wins in the Valley.

The Suns return home following a 4-2 road trip, capped off by a 104-100 defeat at Toronto. Phoenix covered four times on that away swing, including in blowouts of Indiana and Philadelphia, while owning a 5-2 ATS record in its past seven in the favorite role overall. Jeff Hornacek’s team has allowed over 100 points in four of their previous five home contests, but the Suns have won and covered both times against teams coming off no rest this season, beating the Lakers and Warriors by double-digits.

Grizzlies (-6 ½, 202) at Lakers – 10:35 PM EST

Memphis begins a four-game road trip tonight, going for its 13th win in 15 tries this season. The Grizzlies have lost each of their past two away contests at Milwaukee and Toronto, but Memphis seeks its third straight win tonight following back-to-back blowout wins over the Celtics and Clippers at home. In six road games this season, the Grizzlies haven’t allowed more than 96 points, as the ‘under’ is 4-2 with the two ‘overs’ barely cashing by less than two points at Indiana and Phoenix.

The Lakers are back on the court after Sunday’s home overtime loss to the Nuggets, 101-94. Los Angeles fell to 1-6 at Staples Center this season with the defeat, while owning a 2-4-1 ATS record as a single-digit underdog overall. In their first meeting of the season in Memphis, the Lakers rallied late to cover in a 107-102 loss as 10 ½-point underdogs on November 11, but L.A. has dropped six of the past eight matchups in the series.

[StarDust Bum]

Sixers and Hoops Analytics

November 25, 2014

Watching a practice session of the 1984 Olympics team he was coaching, Bob Knight was sitting in the stands with Stu Inman, an old friend and then the GM of the Portland Trail Blazers. The NBA Draft was to be held in a few days, and Inman's Blazers were picking second. It was general knowledge that the Houston Rockets, picking first, would take U of Houston center Akeem (before he added the "H") Olajuwon.

Following, courtesy of the excellent biography entitled Knight, by Bob Hammel, is Knight's recounting of the brief discussion that followed with Inman, who had just told Knight that the Blazers were leaning toward taking Sam Bowie of Kentucky.

"Stu," I said, "you've got to take (Michael) Jordan."

"Bob, we need a center."

"Well, play him at center! Nobody could guard him. He's the best player there is. You have to take him!"

Of course, we know what happened a few days later. Portland took Bowie, and the Chicago Bulls, drafting third, took Jordan.

We can assume, three decades later, that the Bowie-over-Jordan pick in the '84 draft had something to do with the basketball analytics of the day. Those calculations have changed a lot in the three decades since.

But then, as now, and as Bob Knight would likely remind us, great players make great stats...not the other way around.

*****

At about this same time last year, we ran the preceding passage as an introduction to our review of the "basketball analytics" movement. Seldom have we seen a stats-based model overwhelm a sport and cause a division between the new-wave thinkers, many with MBA (that's an "M" as in Master's degree, not "N" like NBA) training, and the "old school" basketball lifers. Not even Oakland A's GM Billy Beane and his well-publicized "Moneyball" approach would turn MLB inside out as has the hoops analytics movement in the NBA.

Though the Oakland baseball strategy can also trace its roots to Beane's former assistant GM Paul DePodesta, it was Beane who was the driving force behind the baseball stats revolution. Beane had also been a one-time ballyhooed prospect and MLB player. But the similar "guru" of hoops analytics couldn't even make his junior high team. Moreover, he's barely old enough to vote, or to legally have a drink.

The name Muthu is to new-wave hoops analytics almost what Orville & Wilbur Wright were to the airplane. And to illustrate the newness of this movement, consider that Alagappan is all of 25 years old.

In truth, basketball analytics began to formulate before Alagappan became a household name for basketball junkies. An early disciple was Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who had previously expounded a qualitative analytical approach to stats and roster-building. It was Muthu, however, who would really turn the hoops world on its collective ear.

"Muthu-ball" first burst upon the scene at the 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, an event that had been held for several years and originally attracted a collection of sports nerds. The conference, however, quickly caught on in popularity and would have to move to a convention center in Boston's Back Bay neighborhood to accommodate an attendee list that would eventually number over 2000 and include all manner of sports executives and administrators...as well as the usual collection of wonks.

Muthu, then an undergraduate at Stanford, would be one of eleven speakers in a 2012 breakout session entitled "Evolution of Sports," or "EOS." He would proceed to steal the show. Muthu's concept, through extensive statistical analysis, consisted of new positions for basketball, discarding the old five "normal" positions of point guard, off guard, small forward, power forward, and center in favor of a new blend.

Alagappan believed there should be at least ten different and distinct positions on a roster. "The positions are kind of the alphabet by which everything around basketball revolves," Alagappan said in a San Jose Mercury-News interview. "If we can redefine the alphabet in terms of these 10 or 13 positions, then we can hopefully change all of the strategy that the game is built on."

Alagappan's formula breaks down basketball positions thusly (using examples of players who were all active in 2012 when Mutha would propose his new ideas).

Two-Way All Stars...Think Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant

Inside/outside scorers...Think Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons

Jump-shooting ball handlers...Think Damian Lillard, Steph Curry

Defensive ball handlers...Think Ty Lawson, Kyle Lowry

3-Point ball handlers...Think Steve Nash, Ray Felton

Low-usage ball handlers...Think Trevor Ariza, David Lee

3-Point specialists...Think Steve Novak, Shane Battier

Mid-Range big men...Think Brandon Bass, Big Baby Davis

Scoring rebounders...Think Tim Duncan, DeMarcus Cousins

Paint protectors...Think Larry Sanders, Joakim Noah

Muthu would support his concept with examples of teams that better reflected the proper mix of the above components. An example of a team with a preponderance of ballhandlers but zero scoring rebounders (the 2010-11 T-wolves) was offered in comparison to a team with a balanced concoction including scoring rebounders, paint protectors, and a variety of ballhandlers with complimentary skills. Muthu's example of the latter, to no one's surprise, was the 2010-11 NBA champ Dallas Mavericks.

Alagappan's further refinements to hoop analytics are on top of changes that have been preached by Morey and other GMs as a style that incorporated application of these new-style hoop metrics to alter the way the game is played in the NBA. Scoring is now expected to move either closer to the basket (low risk) or beyond the three-point arc (high reward). Players whose bread-and-butter has been a mid-range jump shot increasingly find themselves on the bench...or out of the league. For example, a star player from the '70s like former Bull Bob Love, who lived on the mid-range jumper, might find it more difficult to locate a situation where he could flourish in such a manner today.

The hoop analytics movement, and the "Muthu-ball" model, has definitely infiltrated NBA front offices, too, with at least 26 teams employing someone to help apply the concepts to personnel and roster construction. As for much of the give-and-take between the new and old-school thinkers, it was outlined in our extensive editorial last November, entitled "Making Sense of Basketball Analytics," still available on our website homepage.

But there is one hoops analytics experiment in the NBA that has put the "movement" under the microscope more than any other.

That involves one team in particular...the Philadelphia 76ers.

Sixer GM Sam Hinkie, hired prior to the 2013-14 season off Daryl Morey's Houston Rockets staff, has sought to completely remake the Philly team in the model of modern hoops analytics.

Like Alagappan, Hinkie is a Stanford product, a graduate of the School of Business who cut his professional teeth at Bain & Company, a management consulting firm. Hoops, however, was his love. Sources have told us that Hinkie is likely to applaud a Sixers' missed 3-point shot from the corner that ends up as an opponent rebound, while groaning when a Philly player connects on a semi-contested mid-range jumper. Hinkie's reactions are because he watches the game and judges every action based on probabilities...what should have happened, not necessarily what does happen.

Last year, we ran comments from one of our hoop scouts, former Hope International (NAIA) head coach and AD, and respected regional basketball consultant, Greg Pappas, who made a bold prediction on what might transpire with the Sixers. We'll let you be the judge about the Pappas projection.

"The Sixers will probably trade two of their three best players in Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes because they played for the previous coach and front office," said Pappas last year. "Playing them will take some of the steam out of the new analytics system that (Sam) Hinkie brought in.

"Hinkie will fly his plan with the Sixers into the side of a mountain. The analytics guys will die in defending their own system."

Not to pile on the Sixers, but after a brutal 19-63 finish last season, they now sit winless at 0-11 three weeks into the 2014-15 campaign. Maybe it is too early to make final judgement on the Hinkie formula in Philly, but we do know that so far, Pappas, at least, was spot-on with what he predicted would happen to the Sixers (including the departures of Turner and Hawes).

Twelve months later, Pappas still has plenty to say about the nosedive in Philly.

"(The Sixers) may be the worst team in NBA history," said Pappas earlier this week. "Nerlens Noel is two years away at best. They really are a D-League team. All the rookies in the league are hurt or struggling. So the Sixers being so bad with young free agents is going to be a disaster. Hinkie is almost peddling the fantasy league mentality of selling a dream."

Hinkie's supporters might claim that the current Philly performance is secondary to the long-range Hinkie plan (which, to be fair, could still include last June's draftees Kansas rookie C Joel Embiid, the top pick whose recovery from a broken foot might keep him out all season, and Euro F Dario Saric, who is currently playing in Turkey). But beyond G Michael Carter-Williams and perhaps Noel, there is no one else on the current roster who is likely to figure into Hinkie's long-term personnel plans. And Hinkie's role players haven't exactly stepped into the breach. Sixers fans, already impatient before Hinkie arrived, are now asking themselves if being saddled with perhaps one of the worst teams in NBA history is worth Hinkie fiddling around with his analytical concepts on how to build a team.

Greg Pappas is far from the only Hinkie critic. Ex-Sixers such as former star player Charles Barkley and former coach (and current SMU HC) Larry Brown are among others who have sounded off in recent months against the ideas of the Sixers' Stanford-educated GM.

Sir Charles, in particular, had little positive to say about Hinkie or the Sixers in a recent interview with the one and only Howard Eskin on venerable 610 WIP in Philadelphia.

"If I'm a coach, I would want to have some say in the draft," said Barkley. "These are all Sam Hinkle's (sic) people who they drafted this year. He traded one of the better point guards in the NBA; yeah, I have a problem with the way the Sixers are running their organization right now. Listen, Howard, you know I don't believe in that analytical crap. If LeBron James couldn't spell cat, I want him on my team. I always tell people, give me a dumb guy that can really play. Don't give me no smart guy.

"The guy (Hinkie), he came from Houston. When did Houston get good? When they went out and paid James Harden all that money and Asik, and now they went out and got Dwight Howard. That's got nothing to do with analytics; that's got to do with paying really good players to come to town."

Ex-76er coach Brown pulled no punches, either, in a recent interview for the Philadelphia Inquirer, especially when the subject turned to the Sixers possibly tanking this season in order to have the best shot at the top pick in the upcoming draft.

"No, I wouldn't do it. We wouldn't lose. Brett (Brown, the Sixers' current HC) can coach; he's one of Pop's (Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, under whom Brett Brown worked) guys," Brown said. "But what they are doing to that city to me is mind-boggling. That's the greatest basketball city in the world with its fans, and you want them to sit back and watch you lose.

"Can you imagine telling Allen Iverson that this is a rebuilding season so we're going to be bad on purpose?" Brown continued. "I love [Nerlens] Noel, I love Joel [Embiid]. But you can't put that stuff into them. Again, it boggles my mind. I understand you have to get assets to get better. You get assets by developing young players, draft picks, and moving contracts. But how much teaching is going on?

"These analytics, they don't mean squat to me," Brown added. "Throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. To say that these analytics guys have the answer is crazy. It doesn't apply to basketball. Everybody uses the data you get, but that's what coaching is. Maybe it will work; I don't know. But it's a shame what those fans are going through waiting to see if it will.

"I hate what's going on in Philly. They don't have a basketball person in the organization. It makes me sick to my stomach."

Once the Hinkie defenders make themselves known, we'll let you know what they say. For now, however, they remain not-so-curiously quiet.

By us, basketball remains a game of playing together, playing smart, playing with skill, and playing hard. Good luck in measuring every aspect on a spread sheet. We have even viewed the standard bearer of analytical stats, the "+/-" calculation, with some suspicion for many years. One bad rotation can distort such numbers, which even at their most illuminating were always going to be static, as are all of the basketball metric calculations (and all stats, for that matter) that are simply finding various ways to measure past results. The circumstances that created those numbers, however, are always bound to be in flux.

We're not completely anti-metrics, however; indeed, we believe the one stat calculation that is particularly illuminating is the 3-point shots made + free throws made number. And the old "+/-" and many of the Hinkie-favored equations have some merit.

But to construct a team completely upon the analytics model, as Hinkie has done with the Sixers, seems pure folly, just as it would be building a modern team without referring to any of the advanced hoops metrics. As in most endeavors, some sort of balance is always a good idea.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, November 28

Hot Teams
-- Golden State won last seven games, covering five of last six.
-- Mavericks won seven of last nine games (2-1 U).
-- Toronto won its last six games, covered nine of last 12,
-- Bucks won seven of their last ten games (5-3 AU).
-- Rockets won last three games by 3-5-13 points (3-4 HF). Clippers won four of their last five games.
-- Kings won three of last four games (5-2 AU). Spurs won eight of last nine games (2-4 HF).
-- Nuggets won five of last six games (2-2-1 HF). Phoenix also won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread).
-- Grizzlies won seven of last eight games (1-1 U). Portland won its last nine games (6-2 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Celtics lost five of their last six games (1-3 HU). Chicago lost four of its last six games (2-3 AF).
-- Hornets lost their last seven games (0-5-2 vs spread).
-- Hawks, Pelicans both lost three of last five games (Atl 2-3-1 HF, NO 2-3 AU).
-- Pistons lost their last six games (1-3-1 vs spread in last five).
-- Orlando lost four of last five games (6-1 last seven AU).
-- Indiana lost five of last seven home games, but is 6-2 vs spread in game following a loss.
-- Knicks 11 of their last 13 games (4-3-1 AU). Thunder lost six of their last seven games (0-2 F).
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last nine games. Lakers lost last three games, by 34-7-6 (1-3 last four H).

Series Records
-- Bulls won three of last four games with Boston.
-- Hornets are 7-4 in last eleven games with Golden State.
-- Pelicans won six of last eight games with Atlanta.
-- Raptors won their last three games with Dallas.
-- Pistons won seven of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Pacers won eight of last ten games with Orlando.
-- Clippers won nine of last ten games with Houston.
-- Knicks lost eight of last ten games with Oklahoma City.
-- Spurs won 19 of last 21 vs Kings; lost 94-91 in Sacramento Nov 15.
-- Suns won their last five games with Denver.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games with Portland.
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Minnesota.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Boston games went over; four of last five Chicago tilts stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Charlotte games went over.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games went over total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over total.
-- Four of last six Detroit home games went over.
-- Last four Indiana home games stayed under total.
-- 13 of 15 Houston games stayed under total. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Clipper games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight New York games. Six of last seven Thunder games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven San Antonio games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Denver games went over total; four of last five Suns' games stayed under..
-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Memphis games.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over total.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 54-21 ATS: West 45-30
East teams HF vs West: 8-13
East teams HU vs West: 7-13
West teams HF vs East: 13-14
West teams HU vs East: 6-1