NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 9 - Monday, October 13)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 13

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Monday Night Football: 49ers at Rams
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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3, 43.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have not been fazed by the soap opera involving their head coach and will go for their third consecutive victory when they visit the St. Louis Rams on Monday night in an NFC West matchup. Rumors of dissension permeating the locker room prompted 49ers team owner Jed York to publicly defend coach Jim Harbaugh prior to last week's 22-17 home victory over Kansas City. "I love Coach Harbaugh," quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "I'd go to war with him any day of the week."

San Francisco coughed up second-half leads in back-to-back losses to Chicago and Arizona but rebounded with a pair of stellar defensive performances in home wins over Philadelphia and the Chiefs. A bye week did little to rectify the defensive issues of the Rams, who have surrendered 34 points in each of their three setbacks. The 49ers, winners of six straight on Monday night, posted a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis last season after going 0-2-1 in their three previous matchups against the Rams.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 3.5-point home dogs, but that is presently +3. The total has held at 43.5.

INJUR REPORT: 49ers - T Anthony Davis (Questionable, knee), TE Vernon Davis (Questionable, back), CB Tramaine Brock (Questionable, toe). Rams - LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (Questionable, groin), WR Kenny Britt (Questionable, knee), CB Trumaine Johnson (Questionable, knee), RB Zac Stacy (Questionable, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-3.75) - Rams (+2.75) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -3.5

ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U): Ageless Frank Gore became the oldest running back in team history with consecutive 100-yard games since 1960, but he knows there's room for improvement after San Francisco settled for five field goals by Phil Dawson in last week's win. "We have to get better," Gore said of the team's struggles in the red zone. "Watch the tape and clean up whatever it is. We just have to get better." Kaepernick has yet to throw for more than 248 yards this season but should be helped by the expected return of tight end Vernon Davis, who has missed two games with ankle and back injuries. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the league with an average of 284.8 total yards allowed and is among the top five in rushing (77.2) and passing yards (205.6).

ABOUT THE RAMS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): St. Louis is coming off a pair of narrow losses, blowing a 21-point lead in a 34-31 setback to Dallas before a furious comeback came up short in last week's 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. "I think we’re a good football team," rookie quarterback Austin Davis said. "The record is what it is, but we’re a couple plays here and there from being where we want to be. We’ve got to stay the course. I think we’re headed in the right direction." Davis, who started the season as the third-string quarterback before injuries to Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill, threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns versus the Eagles. However, Davis could be without starting running back Zac Stacy, who missed Thursday's practice due to a calf injury sustained in last week's game.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last four vs. NFC West.
* Under is 7-2 in Rams last nine games overall.

CONSENSUS: According to Consensus, 75 percent of wagers are backing the 49ers.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 13


Rams causing headaches for their spread bettors

The St. Louis Rams have been a poor spread play lately, covering in only one out of their last five games.

They'll try and buck that trend when they host their division rival San Francisco 49ers in Monday Night Football action.

The Rams are currently 3-point home dogs with a total of 43.5.


Kaepernick shines on Monday stage

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick arguably plays his best football on the primetime stage on Monday Night Football, posting a straight up record of 3-0 and a QB rating of 126.8 in his young career.

Kaepernick has gone 2-1 against the spread in his three Monday starts and get's his first shot of the 2014 campaign versus the Rams in Week 6.

His only failure ATS was Week 16 last season. The 49ers were 14-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons and won 34-24, coming up just shy for their backers.

Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3.5-point road faves against the Rams, and that has moved to -3.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 13


Road teams come through for backers

Week 6 in the NFL was a good week to be betting on the team in the visitors locker room.

Road teams went 9-4 against the spread Sunday, hitting at a rate of over 69 percent. Much better than the season average of just over 52 percent.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 13


Rams causing headaches for their spread bettors

The St. Louis Rams have been a poor spread play lately, covering in only one out of their last five games.

They'll try and buck that trend when they host their division rival San Francisco 49ers in Monday Night Football action.

The Rams are currently 3-point home dogs with a total of 43.5.


Kaepernick shines on Monday stage

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick arguably plays his best football on the primetime stage on Monday Night Football, posting a straight up record of 3-0 and a QB rating of 126.8 in his young career.

Kaepernick has gone 2-1 against the spread in his three Monday starts and get's his first shot of the 2014 campaign versus the Rams in Week 6.

His only failure ATS was Week 16 last season. The 49ers were 14-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons and won 34-24, coming up just shy for their backers.

Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3.5-point road faves against the Rams, and that has moved to -3.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 6

October 12, 2014


Overall Notes

NFL Week 6 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3-1
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-9-1
Against the Spread 3-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-4


NFL Overall Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 60-28-1
Against the Spread 46-40-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 49-39-1
Against the Spread 37-49-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 48-41


Biggest Favorite to Cash

Denver (-9.5) defeated the Jets, 31-17, as the Broncos cashed with a late interception return for a touchdown.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

Dallas (+9.5) stunned Seattle, 30-23 to pick up its fifth consecutive win to own the best record in the NFC at 5-1. The Cowboys cashed on the money-line at +350 (Bet $100 to win $350).

Highway to Hell

Home teams were flat out awful in Week 6. How bad was it for the hosts? Only three home squads won as the Titans, Browns, and Cardinals each came out with victories, but Tennessee didn't cover as four-point favorites in a 16-14 win over Jacksonville. Overall, road teams put together a fantastic 9-3-1 SU and 10-3 ATS record in Week 6.


Saved by the Pick-Six

It was mentioned earlier about the Broncos taking back a late interception for a touchdown to cash against the Jets, but that wasn't the only front-door cover in the final minute. The Cardinals couldn't convert a first down against the Redskins in the last minute, leading Washington 23-20 as five-point favorites. Following a punt, Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six that gave Arizona a 30-20 victory to improve to 4-1 and give Cardinal backers a miracle cover.

Back in Business

The Lions, Patriots, Ravens, and Packers all won on the road to improve to 4-2. Detroit bounced back from last week's last-second loss to Buffalo by cruising past Minnesota, 17-3 as one-point road underdogs. New England doesn't look like the same team that got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago, as the Patriots' offense has woken up in wins over the Bengals and Bills. Sunday's 37-22 victory at Buffalo improved New England to 2-2 SU/ATS on the road and 1-1 inside the AFC East.

Baltimore pulled off the biggest rout in Week 6, manhandling Tampa Bay, 48-17 as three-point road favorites. Joe Flacco threw four touchdown passes...in the first quarter to give Baltimore a commanding 28-0 lead after 15 minutes. Green Bay needed a late rally to knock off Miami, 27-24 as 1.5-point road favorites, as the money came in on the Dolphins late in the week.

Sunday Line Moves

Prior to the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoffs, there were a handful of line moves on Sunday, which was reported to be sharp action. Make a note that even the professionals or so-called wise guys lose too.

Denver -6.5 to Denver -9.5 (WIN)
Miami +3.5 to Miami +1.5 (LOSS)
Minnesota +1 to Minnesota -1 (LOSS)
Buffalo +3 to Buffalo +1 (LOSS)
Seattle -8 to Seattle -9.5 (LOSS)
Arizona -3 to Arizona -5 (WIN)
N.Y. Giants +3 to N.Y. Giants +1.5(LOSS)

All Knotted Up

It's fair to say we all hate ties in sports. Carolina and Cincinnati played an epic game at Paul Brown Stadium, but there was no winner as the two teams finished in a 34-34 tie. The Bengals had a chance to win the game with a field goal at the end of overtime, but missed it. Cincinnati's 11-game home regular season winning streak was snapped, while Carolina covered as seven-point road underdogs.

Committment to Awfulness

The Raiders were that close to winning their first game of the season, but couldn't hold onto a 28-21 fourth quarter lead as the Chargers rallied for 10 late points in a 31-28 victory at the Black Hole. Oakland managed to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs, but the Raiders fell to 0-5 on the season.

Let's not get Jacksonville off the hook when mentioning winless clubs, as the Jaguars still haven't won this season. The good news for the Jags is that they finally covered a game after going 0-5 ATS the first five weeks, but Jacksonville dropped a 16-14 decision at Tennessee as four-point 'dogs.

Totals

The 'over' cashed in nine of 13 games, including eight contests in which the winning team scored at least 30 points. Cleveland was the lone team to score over 30 points and not produce an 'over,' as the Browns drilled the 'under' for the first time this season.

The late interception returns in both the Broncos-Jets game and Redskins-Cardinals contest each clinched the 'over.'

The game with the highest total (56) never came close to being threatened, as the Bears beat the Falcons, 27-13. At halftime, the two teams combined for 16 points.

After seeing the 'under' cash in their first two road games, the Chargers exploded for 31 points and their first away 'over' on the season.

The Bucs started the season with consecutive 'unders,' but Tampa Bay has hit the 'over' in four straight games, while allowing at least 37 points three times in the past four weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams look for MNF upset

October 12, 2014


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-2) at ST. LOUIS RAMS (1-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Francisco -3, Total: 44
Opening Line & Total: San Francisco -3, Total: 44

The 49ers head visit the Rams on Monday night for a game that they can’t afford to lose.

San Francisco came away with a 22-17 home victory over Kansas City last week, and is now facing a St. Louis offense that looked good in a 34-28 loss to Philadelphia. The 49ers are allowing just 209.0 yards per game through the air (4th in NFL) and 73.8 YPG on the ground (5th in NFL), so it will be a tough matchup for Rams QB Austin Davis who is coming off of a huge 3-TD performance against Philly in Week 5.

The 49ers are 9-2-1 SU in the past dozen meetings between these clubs, but the teams have split these games 6-6 ATS. However, San Francisco beat St. Louis by double-digits in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 58 to 24. Last year, the Niners were 6-0 ATS in road games after the first month of the season, and are also 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons. However, St. Louis is 6-1 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games in that span.

The Rams could be without star RB Zac Stacy (calf), who was injured in the loss to the Eagles, but it appears both he and Niners TE Vernon Davis (back) will be able to suit up for this contest.

Since a disastrous 3-INT performance in a 28-20 loss to the Bears in Week 2, QB Colin Kaepernick (1,113 pass yards, 7 TD, 4 INT) has really stepped up his play. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown four touchdown passes and only one interception. He’s taking much better care of the football and has also run the ball very well. He’ll need to use his legs when plays break down against a solid Rams’ secondary.

Last season, Kaepernick threw for 442 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 TD and 0 INT in the two wins over St. Louis. RB Frank Gore (365 rush yards, 1 TD) has been running wild the past two weeks with back-to-back games rushing for at least 100 yards and he’ll get a lot of touches against the Rams, as the 49ers will try to control the tempo in this one.

In the past eight meetings in this series, Gore has rushed for 626 yards (4.1 YPC) and 7 TD, which includes 153 yards on 7.7 YPC when he visited St. Louis last year. One player who will really need to turn things around is WR Michael Crabtree (25 rec, 246 yards, 2 TD), who was excellent in Week 2 and Week 3, but caught just six passes for 59 yards over the past two weeks. Crabtree is Kaepernick’s go-to-guy in the passing game and will need to be a more reliable player going forward.

This 49ers' defense has been relentless all season (10 takeaways) and should make life on Austin Davis extremely difficult.

St. Louis fell to 1-3 (SU and ATS) after last week’s shootout loss against the Eagles. The Rams were down 34-7 at one point in the game, but QB Austin Davis (1,129 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) would ultimately fall just short of rallying his team for a dramatic comeback win. Davis was 29-of-49 for 375 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He did, however, lost two fumbles. Davis will now be up against a much better defense, so taking care of the ball will be crucial for this entire offense that has nine turnovers in four games this year.

WR Brian Quick (21 rec, 322 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a serious playmaker on the outside for St. Louis. He had five catches for 87 yards and 2 TD in the loss to the Eagles, and he should be able to use his size and speed to break open at least a few times against the 49ers.

One player the Rams could really use is RB Zac Stacy (223 rush yards, 1 TD). Stacy is questionable for this game and if he doesn’t play, his powerful running would really be missed. Last year versus San Francisco, he carried the ball 19 times for 71 yards (3.8 YPC).

Despite allowing more than 30 points in three different games this season, the Rams defense has been strong against the pass, They’re allowing an NFL-best 192.3 yards per game through the air, but also give up 152.5 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL). They could have a lot of trouble containing Kaepernick and Gore on the ground.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - 49ers at Rams

October 13, 2014

The NFC West race continues to stay interesting through the first six weeks, but the favorites to win the division, the Seahawks and 49ers, are currently behind the 4-1 Cardinals. There is still a long way to go, but Arizona isn’t letting up after a surprising 10-6 season in 2013.

San Francisco tries to move into second place all by themselves with a victory tonight at St. Louis to wrap up Week 6 of the NFL season. The 49ers have seen their ups and downs through five games with a 3-2 record, while opening up a brand new stadium in Santa Clara after 42 seasons at Candlestick Park. Jim Harbaugh’s team blew a 20-7 fourth quarter lead to Chicago in the debut at Levi’s Stadium in Week 2, falling 27-20. But, the Niners have protected their home field in the past two weeks with five-point victories over the Eagles and Chiefs.

After not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 26-21 comeback win over Philadelphia, the San Francisco defense stepped once again in a 22-17 triumph over old friend Alex Smith and the Chiefs. The Niners covered as 4 ½-point favorites, while converting three Phil Dawson field goals in the second half to grind out their third win of the season. The San Francisco defense stepped up by limiting Kansas City to 14 first downs and 265 yards of offense.

The Rams enter tonight’s action trying to sure up its defense after giving up 34 points in each of the past two losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. Granted, those two NFC East clubs are a combined 10-2 on the season, but St. Louis squandered a 21-0 lead against Dallas in a Week 3 home loss to fall 34-31. Rookie quarterback Austin Davis is now the man under center since Sam Bradford ripped up his ACL in the preseason, as the former Southern Mississippi standout threw three touchdown passes against the Cowboys, but was also picked off twice.

St. Louis had to play the role of the team digging out of the hole last Sunday at Philadelphia, falling behind the red-hot Eagles, 34-7 in third quarter. The money flowed in on the Rams, dropping the line from seven to 3 ½, so all that sharp money seemed pretty flat. However, Davis led the Rams’ rally with three touchdown drives in an 11-minute span to get St. Louis within 34-28 with less than five minutes remaining. However, several Rams receivers dropped key passes on their final drive, which would have given St. Louis a miraculous comeback, but it fell short and dropped its record to 1-3.

Two seasons ago, when the 49ers played in the Super Bowl, San Francisco didn’t beat St. Louis in two meetings, losing at the Edward James Dome and tying the Rams at Candlestick Park. Harbaugh’s team picked up revenge in 2013 with a pair of double-digit victories over St. Louis, including a dominating 35-11 rout in Eastern Missouri on a September Thursday night as three-point road favorites. The Rams were limited to 188 yards of offense, while Frank Gore ran all over St. Louis with 153 yards, including a 34-yard touchdown scamper late in the first half to give San Francisco a 14-3 lead.

In spite of last season’s victory at the Edward Jones Dome, the Niners have split the last four visits to St. Louis since 2010, while San Francisco is just 2-5 SU/ATS in their past seven road games against NFC West foes. But, Harbaugh’s squad is a solid bet as an away favorite since the start of the 2013 season, posting a 7-1-1 ATS record, with the lone setback coming at Arizona in Week 3.

Jeff Fisher’s squad is winless in two home contests this season after closing out 2013 with three consecutive victories on their turf. The Rams could be in major trouble (if they aren’t already) ahead with Seattle coming to town next week, followed by this fun gauntlet on the road of Kansas City, San Francisco, and Arizona in three straight weeks. Oh, then the Broncos invade the Edward Jones Dome in Week 11 followed by a trip to San Diego.

Just to kick the Rams while their down, this is their first division contest of the season. St. Louis compiled a 1-5 SU/ATS record against their division rivals last season, with the lone victory coming in Week 1 against Arizona erasing an 11-point second half deficit in a 27-24 win as 3 ½-point favorites.

The primetime games have leaned towards the ‘over’ this season, in spite of the ‘under’ in the Eagles/Giants game last night. Through 18 night contests, the ‘over’ has cashed 14 times, including a 4-2 mark on Mondays. Is there any good news for the Rams tonight? Underdogs are 4-2 ATS on Monday nights this season, while home ‘dogs are 3-2 ATS in primetime action.

From a totals perspective, the 49ers have cashed the ‘under’ in three straight games and own a 4-1 ‘under’ mark this season. The Rams hit the ‘under’ in the first two weeks, but have seen the ‘over’ cash in the past two high-scoring contests. In the last six divisional matchups at home, St. Louis is 4-2 to the ‘under.’

San Francisco is currently a three-point favorite at most spots, but expect that number to jump to 3 ½ by kick off as bettors need to lay at least -120 at several books if you want to get the 3. The total sits between 43 ½ and 44, which is actually the highest number the Niners have had in a road NFC West matchup under Harbaugh. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.