NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 2 - Monday, October 6)

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Bears (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Carolina allowed 75 points in losing last two games after 2-0 start; they were outrushed 391-109 in losses and haven’t forced a turnover yet, after forcing three in each of their two wins. Chicago won both its road games, is 0-2 at home; go figure; they had 446 yards in home loss to Packers last week, but Pack scored five TD, kicked two FGs, never punted. Panthers are 10-5-1 as a home favorite under Rivera, 1-1 this year. Bears lost battle for field position in all four games, by 4-4-8-24 yards; they're 6-10-1 as road dogs since '11, but 2-0 this season. NFC South teams are 3-7 vs spread out of division, 2-5 when favored. NFC North teams are 6-6, 4-4 as underdogs. Carolina coach Rivera was a LB for Bears in his playing days.

Browns (1-2) @ Titans (1-3)—Tennessee lost last three games by 16-26-24 points after upsetting Chiefs in opener; they’ve turned ball over seven times in losses, while converting just 5-30 on 3rd down. Titans are 8-12-1 in last 21 games as a home fave, 0-1 this year. All three Cleveland games were decided in last 0:06, with all three going over total; three of four Titans games stayed under. Browns scored 21+ points in all three games, are off bye week. Browns are 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road dog, 1-0 this year. Titans are 7-3 in series, winning 28-9/31-13 in last two meetings; Browns are 2-3 in five visits here, with both wins by FG. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread out of division, 2-0 as underdogs; AFC South teams are 5-7, 3-3 when favored.

Rams (1-2) @ Eagles (3-1)—Concern with Philly OL after they didn’t even try to run ball in from 2-yard line with game on line in last minutes at SF Sunday. Even in three wins, Iggles trailed all three games by 10+ points; not sure Foles is 100% after big hit he took in Week 3 vs Redskins. Rams are off bye after blowing 21-0 lead at home to Dallas, losing 34-31; Davis has been pleasant surprise at QB, converting 13-24 on 3rd down, averaging 7.1/7.8 ypa in first two NFL starts. St Louis is 10-7 as a road dog under Fisher. Philly is 10-18 in last 28 games as home favorite; 4-6 under Kelly. Eagles won last three series games by 1-35-18 points; Rams lost five of last six visits here, but last visit was in ’08. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread out of division, 3-1 on road; NFC East teams are 7-4, 3-0 when favored.

Falcons (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)—Atlanta allowed 12.6/10.6 ypa in losing first two road games, allowing 65 points without forcing turnover (-5); they’ve scored 28+ points in three of four games, with home side covering all four. Falcons are 3-6 in last nine games as road dogs. Giants rebounded from 0-2 start by scoring 75 points in wins over Texans/Redskins, scoring nine TDs on 25 drives, forcing nine turnovers (+7) after being -6 in first two games. Big Blue is 8-3 in last 11 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Giants won four of last five series games, but lost 34-0 in last meeting in 2012, in Georgia Dome. NFC South teams are 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 7-4 out of division, 3-0 when favored. Three of four games for both teams went over total.

Bucs (1-3) @ Saints (1-3)—Third straight road game for Tampa, historically an NFL soft spot, but Bucs showed life behind backup QB Glennon last week, rallying from down 24-13 to beat Steelers in last minute on road. Saints won only home game, lackluster 20-9 win over Vikings; they’ve forced just one turnover this year (-6), none in last three games, but won last five games with Tampa Bay, winning last three here by average score of 37-11. NO is 19-3-1 in last 23 games as home favorite, 3-0 in last three when laying double digits. Bucs are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog; they've been outscored 72-17 in first half this year; two of their three TDs last week were on drives of less than 50 yards. Saint defense can’t get people off field; foes converted 27 of 56 (48.2%) on 3rd down against New Orleans.

Texans (3-1) @ Cowboys (3-1)—Underdogs are 25-8 vs spread in Cowboy home games in Garrett era; he is 6-20 as a home fave. Dallas scored 32.7 ppg in winning, covering last three games; they’re averaging 165 rushing yards for year, creating manageable 3rd down situations- they’ve converted 55.1% of their 3rd down plays. Houston is 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a road dog; they converted just 7 of last 26 on 3rd down, turning ball over three times in each of last two games, but defense scored go-ahead TD in last week’s home win over Bills. Cowboys won two of three series games, winning 34-6 in only game played here, in ‘xx. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-0 vs spread; AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread out of division, 2-4 as road dogs.

Bills (2-2) @ Lions (3-1)—Detroit fired Schwartz after last year; he is now Buffalo's DC; think this game means extra to him? Buffalo gave young QB Manuel quick hook, start veteran backup Orton under center here, after losing last two games; last week’s loss turned on Manuel’s red zone pick-6 that became winning 80-yard TD for Texans. Bills have only three TDs on last 11 red zone drives; they're 6-16-1 in last 23 games as a road dog. Detroit is 5-8 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they've allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, have converted 21-33 (63.9%) of 3rd down plays at home, winning both games by 21-12 points. Home side won last five series games; Bills lost three of four visits here, with last win in 1979. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread, 2-1 as road dogs. All four Buffalo games, last three Lion games stayed under total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Colts (2-2)—Indy scored 44-41 points in winning last two games (9 TDs on 23 drives) after starting year 0-2; they converted 15 of last 28 on 3rd down, forced six turnovers (+5) in two wins. Both teams have stretched out passing game in last two weeks; Ravens averaged 7.0/10.5 ypa in last two games, Colts 8.6/9.6- Indy has 16 plays of 20+ yards in last two games. Baltimore is 3-6-1 in last ten games as a road underdog, but won only road game this year, at Cleveland. Colts are 7-5 as home favorites under Pagano, 2-0 this year; they're 9-4 in this series, but lost 24-10/24-9 in last two meetings; Ravens are 0-5 at Indy, losing 31-3/20-3 in last two visits here. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-0 as underdogs. Last three Colt games went over the total.

Steelers (2-2) @ Jaguars (0-4)— Steelers are 11-21-1 as road favorites with Tomlin as coach, 6-18 as non-divisional road favorite since '05. Bad loss for Pitt last week, blowing 24-13 lead, losing in last 0:20 to Bucs after Brown dropped easy TD on flea-flicker when Steelers led 24-20. Penalties are issue for Pitt; they’ve been flagged 44 times for 387 yards (94.3 ypg). Jaguars have to win or cover, losing 44-17 to Colts in only home game; they’ve lost badly in field position this year (by 9-14-11-18 yards) and turned ball over three times in each of last two games (-6). Teams haven’t met since ’11; Pitt won last two meetings 26-21/17-13, won three of last four visits here. Jaguars are 6-19-1 in last 26 games as home underdogs; they lost only home game so far this year, 44-17 to Colts. Three of four games for both sides went over total.

Cardinals (3-0) @ Broncos (2-1)—One of NFL’s last two unbeaten as 7-point dogs? Arizona allowed 17-14-14 points in its three wins, and teams they beat are combined 7-2 in other games; their defense will go against Bronco squad that scored only 27 second half points in three games, but 17 came in last game, with Welker back from suspension. Arizona QB Stanton is 2-0 as starter for injured Palmer, but with only two TDs in eight red zone drives. Denver is 7-1-1 in series, but lost 43-13 in desert in last meeting in 2010; Redbirds are 0-4 in Denver, losing last two visits here by combined score of 75-13. Arizona is 4-2 as road dog under Arians; Denver is 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorite, but 0-2 this year. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All three games for both teams stayed under total.

Chiefs (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)— You think Alex Smith is pumped up for this game, cast aside by 49ers after going 19-5-1 as their starting QB in 2011-12? Resurgent Chiefs scored 75 points in winning last two games, after scoring 27 in pair of opening losses; long travel on short work week makes this tough spot, though. 49ers allowed 21+ points in each of last three games, but all three TDs they gave up to Eagles last week came on special teams/defense. Home side won last eight series games, with four of last five decided by 14+ points; Chiefs lost last four visits here, three by 14+ points- their lone win here was in ‘76. AFC West teams are 8-4 vs spread out of division, 2-2 as home favorites; NFC West teams are 5-5, 3-1 on road. All four 49er games this season stayed under total.

Jets (1-3) @ Chargers (3-1)—Jets lost last three games since beating winless Raiders in opener; they’ve forced total of two turnovers in four games (-6). Gang Green is 26-59 (44.1%) on 3rd down, which is good, but with only 26 points n last eight red zone drives, at what point do they have to give Vick shot under center, before season slips away? Bolts are 2-0 at home, winning 30-21/33-14; they’re 3-1 as home favorites under McCoy. Chargers haven’t turned ball over in last three games (+4), averaged 9.7/8.9 ypa in last two games and have won field position by 7+ yards in every game. Jets are 12-14-1 as road underdogs under Ryan, 6-10-1 in non-divisional games. AFC East teams are 3-8 vs spread out of division, 2-1 as road underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-4, 2-2 as home favorites. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Jets won four of last five visits here.

Bengals (3-0) @ Patriots (2-2)—New England looked old/slow in dreadful Monday night loss in Kansas City; remember they’re 26-9 vs spread in game after their last 35 losses and 24-17 vs spread in last 41 home games, 16-10 in last 26 non-divisional games- since ’05, they’re 1-1 as home underdogs. On first drive of each half, Pats gained total of only 65 yards on 28 plays, with no points. Bengals have yet to allow point on first drive of a half; they held all three opponents to 5.1 or less ypa and outscored foes 44-3 in first half of games- they are 20-10-1 in last 31 games where spread was 3 or less points. NE is 10-6 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less. AFC East home teams are 0-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC North teams are 5-1 vs spread outside their division. All three Bengal games stayed under total.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (1-3)—Washington imploded in last game, turning ball over six times, converting 1-8 on 3rd down in 45-14 home loss to division rival Giants. Skins’ only win was over lowly Jaguars, now defending champs come in off bye. Seattle is 5-3 in last eight games as road favorite but lost only road game this year, at San Diego. Redskins is 3-4 in last nine games as a home dog; they won six of last nine series games- all three losses came in playoff games. NFC West teams are 5-5 vs spread outside division, 3-1 on road. NFC East teams are 7-4 vs spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Last three Washington games, two of three Seahawk games went over the total. Serious question: If you’re Pete Carroll, how much do you tell ESPN’s Jon Gruden in your production meeting, seeing as his brother coaches the Redskins?

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 5 line moves

Week 5 of the NFL season sees the league's only two undefeated teams - the Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 ATS) and the Arizona Cardinals (2-1 ATS) - return fully rested from their bye weeks.

A month into the campaign, the landscape of the league is starting to take shape. It's been a strange start to the season, as perennial locks for the playoffs are looking like anything but that, and teams that were written off by many heading into Week 1 are now making those doubters eat their words.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where lines could end up before kickoff Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -11, Move: +10.5

The Buccaneers pulled off the upset over Pittsburgh in Week 4, but are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against New Orleans. The Saints (1-3 SU) have been stuck in reverse so far this season, and haven't looked like the same team we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years.

"We opened the Saints as 11-point favorites and have bounced between that number and 10.5 (where we currently sit) all week," Stewart told Covers. "We have all Saints action in the form of 97 percent on the money and 76 percent on the side, with the 48.5 point total getting 77% of the action on the Over."

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -4, Move: -6.5

Houston and Dallas were counted out by many at the beginning of the season, but both squads are heading into their Week 5 matchup with 3-1 SU records . The 'Boys were a lights out spread play last October, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in all four of their games during the month.

"We opened the Cowboys at -4 and moved it to -6 on Tuesday after taking some sharp action, and after another sharp bet came in we went to -6.5 yesterday," said Stewart. "Since moving to 6.5, we have seen some good two way action with 59 percent of the action on the Cowboys and the 47 point total getting 82 percent of support on the Over."

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos - Open: -8.5, Move: -8

Arizona (3-0 SU) faces a tough test Sunday on the road against Peyton Manning's crew. The Cards were the forgotten team in the deep NFC West at the beginning of the year, but have turned some heads in the early going of the season. Backup quarterback Drew Stanton will make his third straight start under center for Arizona in place of the ailing Carson Palmer.

"We opened the Broncos at -8.5 and took some sharp action on the Cardinals at +8.5, which forced us to move that to Denver -7," said the bookmaker. "We then had the public back the Broncos, which drove the line back to -8 and is where we sit now. Fifty-three percent of the action is on the Broncos, while the Cards are getting 75 percent of the money to win outright."

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers - Open: -4.5, Move: -5.5

The Chiefs are riding a high after their 41-14 primetime beat down of the New England Patriots and invade Levi's Stadium for a date with the 49ers (2-2 SU). San Francisco eked out a 26-21 win over Philadelphia in Week 4, bouncing back from consecutive tight losses to Chicago and Arizona, respectively.

"We opened the 49ers as 4.5-point favorites and immediately went to 49ers -6.5 after the overwhelming support from public, but with some sharp action, we went to our current number of -5.5," said Stewart. "The Chiefs are currently getting 65 percent of spread bets."

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots - Open: +2, Move: +1

Andy Dalton and the Bengals (3-0 SU) have looked great out of the gate, putting up 80 points on the scoreboard while allowing only 33 - the best point differential in the league. The Pats (2-2 SU) have had plenty of issues through the first month of the campaign, and head coach Bill Belichick even had to field a question from a reporter last week regarding the starting status of his future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady.

"We opened the Bengals as 2-point road faves in this matchup and moved it from -2.5 and -1 all week before settling on the Bengals at -1," said Stewart. "Cincy is presently getting 70 percent of the action."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 5

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Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Patriots
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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)

Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.

Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -1. O/U: 46

LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.

INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)

WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.

CONSENSUS: 59.07% of users are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Top Over bets in action Sunday

Perched at the top of the list as the best best Over bets in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts each bring unblemished 4-0 Over/Under records into early action Sunday.

The Colts have scored at least 41 points on their own in each of the previous two games. They host the Baltimore Ravens and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 49.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, just can't stop anybody from scoring. They've given up a whopping 152 points in their four games this season - easily the highest total in the league. They host the Pittsburgh Steelers with a total of 47.5.

Also a hot Over bet to begin the season, the Cleveland Browns are 3-0 O/U and visit the Tennessee Titans with a total of 44.


Bears struggle to cover after big home loss

The Chicago Bears were thumped at home by the Green Bay Packers 38-17 last week and that doesn't bode well for Bears backers this week when they visit Carolina.

The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. They are currently 2.5-point road dogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup against the Panthers.


Rams keep cashing Under tickets

The St. Louis Rams have become a boon for bettors banking on low totals.

The Under is a sizzling 7-1 in the Rams' last eight games. St. Louis travels to Philadelphia for a date with the Eagles Sunday.

Philly is currently 6.5-point faves with the total set at 47.5.


History shows faves prevailing in Bucs-Saints games

The dogs haven't had their day in previous meetings between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.

The faves are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups between the two clubs. They'll renew acquaintances in Louisiana Sunday.

The Saints are presently 10.5-point home faves with a total of 48.


Lions-Bills have history of low-scoring games

If you've been backing the Under when the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills have gotten together as of late, you've been collecting some nice profits.

Each of the last four games between the two clubs have gone under the total. Detroit will host the Bills in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

Detroit is currently 6.5-point favorites with an O/U of 43.5.


Titans proving to be a poor spread bet at home

The Tennessee Titans have been an awful spread bet at LP Field, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.

That's a trend that Titans backers need to be aware of ahead of Tennessee's meeting with Cleveland in Nashville Sunday.

Tennessee is currently 2-point home faves with an Over/Under of 44.


Colts have become a boon for Over bettors

Andrew Luck's high-flying Indianapolis Colts offense has put some cash in the pockets of bettors backing the Over in their recent games.

All six of the Colts' last six games have gone over the total. Indy welcomes Baltimore into Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday.

Indianapolis is presently 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 49.


Under on fire when Panthers play NFC teams

When the Carolina Panthers face off against NFC teams, low-scoring games tend to follow.

The Under is 9-0 in the Panthers' last nine games against NFC clubs. They'll host the NFC North's Chicago Bears Sunday.

Cam Newton's crew is currently 2.5-point faves with a total of 45.5.


Underdog covering with ease in Jags-Steelers clashes

If you're planning on wagering on the spread in Sunday's Jacksonville Jaguars-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, there's one particular trend you need to be aware of.

In the last eight contests between the two teams, the underdog is a perfect 8-0. The Jags will host the Steelers once again in Week 5 NFL action Sunday.

The Jaguars are currently 6-point home dogs with a total of 47.5 for the game.


Texans posting ugly ATS numbers on turf

The Houston Texans have been a nightmare for spread bettors when playing on turf lately, going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played on the artificial surface.

The Texans will once again play on fieldturf when they travel to AT&T Stadium for a meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Sunday.

The 'Boys are currently 6.5-point home faves with a total of 47.


Under scorching hot between Giants-Falcons

The Under has been the hot play when the New York Giants and the Atlanta Falcons collide, going 7-1-1 in the last nine matchups between the two clubs.

Atlanta travels to MetLife Stadium Sunday for a date with the G-Men. The Giants are presently 4-point home favorites with a total of 50.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Slight wind in forecast for Browns-Titans matchup

The Tennessee Titans host the Cleveland Browns from LP Field Sunday afternoon, and though weather conditions look to be fairly ideal, wind could play a factor in the game.

Forecasts are calling for wind to blow from the south toward the north endzone at around nine mph at the start of the game, and then increase to around 11 mph.

The Titans are currently 1.5-point home favorites and oddsmakers have tabbed the game with a total of 44.


Eagles dominating Rams against the spread

The St. Louis Rams backers are hoping newly named starting quarterback Austin Davis will have more success covering the spread versus the Eagles than his predecessors.

The Rams are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine meetings with the Eagles and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs for their Sunday afternoon matchup.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 5


Total on the rise as Rams visit Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles host the St. Louis Rams Sunday and the Westgate LV Superbook opened the total at 48. That dropped to 47.5 earlier in the week but that number is on the move once again.

Earlier Sunday morning, the book adjusted the total back up to 48.

The Eagles have been a profitable Over venture so far this season, posting a 3-1 O/U record. The Rams are 1-2 O/U.


Buccaneers have trouble covering vs. NFC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off a huge road win in Pittsburgh last week, but have struggled when it comes to covering the spread versus NFC and specificially division opponents.

And that's who the Bucs get this week when they travel to the Super Dome to take on the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games versus the NFC and are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the NFC South.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 6

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Monday Night Football: Seahawks at Redskins
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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 45)

The Washington Redskins will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance against the Seattle Seahawks when the clubs square off in the nation's capital on Monday night. Washington is 11-4 in the all-time regular-season series and has won each of the last six matchups, including a 23-17 triumph at Seattle on Nov. 27, 2011, in which Roy Helu Jr. accumulated 162 total yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks haven't defeated the Redskins since posting a 24-14 home victory on Sept. 20, 1998, when they still were members of the AFC West.

Washington's season has gotten off to a disappointing start, with Robert Griffin III going down with an ankle injury in the club's lone win in Week 2 and backup Kirk Cousins guiding the team to two straight defeats - extending his personal losing streak to five starts in the process. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks are coming off their bye week after registering a thrilling 26-20 overtime triumph over Denver in Week 3. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is off to a strong start, completing 60-of-87 passes for 651 yards with six touchdowns and just one interception over his first three games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Seahawks as 7-point road faves, but are now -7.5. The total opened at 46 and dropped to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT: Seahawks - RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, ribs). Redskins - DB Trenton Robinson (Questionable, ankle), LB Akeem Jordan (Questionable, knee), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), TE Niles Paul (Questionable, concussion).

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-7.75) + Redskins (3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7.75

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Seattle will be without tight end Zach Miller, who is expected to miss several games after undergoing ankle surgery last week. Percy Harvin is proving to be a triple threat as he leads the team in both receptions (16) and receiving yards (106), has gained another 86 yards on six rushes and is averaging 20.1 yards on seven kickoff returns. Punter Jon Ryan was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September after averaging 48.3 yards on 12 punts.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Washington figures to put pressure on Wilson as it leads the NFL with 11 sacks, including five by league co-leader Ryan Kerrigan. The linebacker is one-half sack away from becoming the eighth player in team history to record 30. Alfred Morris needs 156 rushing yards to pass Mike Thomas (3,359) for eighth place on the franchise list and two touchdowns on the ground to leap past Cliff Battles (23) and tie Earnest Byner (25) for seventh.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday games.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last eight vs. NFC

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Seahawks.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 6


Seahawks trending Under vs. NFC teams

The Seattle Seahawks have been a fantastic Under play against NFC teams, as seven of their last eight games versus the conference have gone Under the total.

The reigning Super Bowl champions travel to D.C. for a date with the Washington Redskins in Monday Night Football action.

The Seahawks are currently 7.5-point road faves with a total of 45.


Seattle covering with ease on grass fields

Grass surfaces have equated to easy covers for Seattle Seahawks backers. In the Seahawks' previous eight games played on the natural surface, Seattle is 6-1 against the spread.

That's a trend their spread backers will hope continues when they take on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field (a grass field) Monday.

Seattle is presently 7.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 45 for the contest.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 6


Home favorites have solid day on gridiron

It was a good day to be backing home favorites against the spread in the NFL this Sunday.

Home favorites went 7-3 ATS in Week 5, good for a success rate pf 70 percent. The solid day improved home favorites record to 27-27-1 ATS, coming in at just under 51 percent or the season.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 6


Bills hold down Lions' offense, are NFL's best under play

The Buffalo Bills were able to contain the Detroit Lions offense and comeback for a big road win, making them the NFL's best under team.

The Bills, led by Kyle Orton in his first start, secured the 17-14 win on a 58-yard field goal by Dan Carpenter with nine seconds left, putting them at 0-5 over/under on the season.

Buffalo has the 28th ranked offense in points for and are fifth in points against, a perfect recipe for an under team. They host the New England Patriots in Week 6.


Browns continue over run thanks to comeback

The Cleveland Browns are the best over play in the NFL this season after an epic comeback win over the Tennessee Titans Sunday.

The Browns, who were down 28-3 at one point, scored 26 consecutive points to send the game to send the game over the total that closed at 44.5.

Cleveland is now 4-0 over/under and are the only team that hasn't gone under a total so far this season.


Hapless Jaguars still winless ATS

The Jacksonville Jaguars put up a fight against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a late Blake Bortles interception that was returned for a touchdown doomed the Jags and their hopes for their first win and cover of the season.

With the 17-9 loss, the Jaguars are the worst bet in the NFL at 0-5 against the spread so far this season. Jacksonville travels to Tennessee to take on the Titans in Week 6, where the line is currently off the board.


Tom Brady improves to 9-2 ATS as home dog

With Sunday's 43-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have now improved to 9-2 against the spread as home underdogs in the Brady-Bill Belichick era.

The Patriots closed as 2.5-point home dogs - just the 11th time in the Brady-Belichick era that the Pats have been home dogs - Sunday night. The Pats went in off an embarrassing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Bengals were the darlings of the league at 3-0 straight up and ATS.

Prior to the Sunday nighter, the last time the Pats were home dogs (not including Matt Cassel starts) was Nov. 13, 2005 when the Indianapolis Colts were 4.5-point road faves.