NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 2 - Monday, October 6)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, October 2 - Monday, October 6

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Unbeaten Cardinals big road dogs at Denver

The first month of the NFL season is behind us, leaving with it just two undefeated teams, and both are involved in key games during Week 5. First up, the Arizona Cardinals, who travel to Denver to take on the Broncos Sunday.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Cards moved to 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) by holding San Francisco scoreless in the second half of a 23-14 home win, covering as a 3-point favorite.

Denver, the defending AFC champion, has gone 2-1 SU but hasn’t covered this year, dropping all three ATS decisions. The Broncos fell at Seattle two weekends ago in a Super Bowl rematch, losing 26-20 in overtime as 4-point underdogs.

John Lester, lines manager at bookmaker.eu, isn’t swayed by Arizona’s unblemished record, giving Denver plenty of respect.

“I don’t think the Cardinals are as good as their record indicates. I just don’t trust the offense,” Lester said. “We all felt a touchdown was about right, so we posted Denver as a 7.5-point favorite to entice some ‘dog action.”


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots

Quarterback Andy Dalton and Cincinnati have been sharp so far, with a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record, including a 33-7 rout of Tennessee as a 6.5-point home fave on Sept. 21. The Bengals are coming off their bye week.

New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) will cap the Week 4 schedule with a Monday nighter at Kansas City, so Lester hasn’t yet put an official line out.

The Pats haven’t looked too good thus far, particularly in Week 3, when they struggled in a 16-9 home win over Oakland and fell well short as 14-point chalk.

Still, it’s a marquee matchup on prime time Sunday night.

“This is by far the best matchup of the week,” Lester said. “If nothing changes as far as personnel, we will likely make the Patriots field-goal favorites, given the short week for them and the bye for Cincinnati.”


Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

This was a game that looked a lot more intriguing before both teams were blown out Sunday. The Bears (2-2 SU and ATS) got blasted by Green Bay 38-17 catching 2 points at home. The Panthers (2-2 SU and ATS) got boatraced at Baltimore 38-10 getting 3.5 points, following a 37-19 home loss to Pittsburgh laying 3 points.

Lester said Carolina quarterback Cam Newton is the X-factor when setting the line – but a very inconsistent X-factor.

“It’s always hard to handicap Cam Newton’s focus from game to game,” Lester said. “He looked completely checked out (against Baltimore). The injuries to Carolina’s run game are concerning, but the Bears’ defense is vulnerable. It feels like a toss-up.”


Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) at Washington Redskins

The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks (2-1 SU and ATS) are coming off a bye week as they travel cross-country to face the Redskins (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) to cap Week 5 on Monday night.

This was another game that looked better on the schedule a few days ago, when Kirk Cousins mania was sweeping the nation, as the Washington backup QB was making people quickly forget about Robert Griffin III.

But on Thursday night, Cousins threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in a 45-14 battering at the hands of the New York Giants, with the Redskins a 3-point home fave.

Seattle bounced back from its lone loss by scratching past Denver 26-20 in overtime to cash as a 4-point home chalk on Sept. 21.

“Everyone saw how poorly the Redskins played last Thursday, so we had to be generous on Seattle’s side, especially coming off a bye,” Lester said. “I’m not calling for the upset, but I expect Washington to put forth a great effort here.”

[Udog]

Betting the bye: NFL's best/worst bets off the bye week

Week 5 in the NFL sees quite a few teams returning from their bye weeks, and if you're planning on betting on any of the action, you need to factor that into your handicapping.

Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle and St. Louis are coming off of byes. Last season, teams went 18-14 SU and 15-17 ATS in matchups after an extra week of rest.

Since 2001, NFL clubs are 219-186-3 SU and 216-183-3 ATS in games after a bye, covering 54 percent of the time.

Historically, certain teams have been fantastic plays after bye weeks while others have not. Here's a look at the best and worst bets in that category:

Stats since 1990 (1993 season had two bye weeks).

Best bets off the bye

Dallas Cowboys: 17-7 ATS/17-7 SU
Denver Broncos: 17-7-1 ATS/18-6 SU
Philadelphia Eagles: 16-7 ATS/20-4 SU
Arizona Cardinals: 14-10 ATS/11-13 SU
Buffalo Bills: 14-9-1 ATS/15-9 SU

Worst bets off the bye

Seattle Seahawks: 5-17-2 ATS/7-17 SU
New York Giants: 7-16-1 ATS/9-15 SU
Oakland Raiders: 9-14-1 ATS/10-14 SU
San Francisco 49ers: 8-15-1 ATS/10-14 SU
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-13 ATS/7-17 SU

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Minnesota at Green Bay
The Packers host the Vikings on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at home versus Minnesota. Green Bay is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 301-302: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 121.893; Green Bay 140.422
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 18 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 451-452: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.769; Carolina 130.767
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 453-454: Cleveland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.186; Tennessee 133.182
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over

Game 455-456: St. Louis at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.313; Philadelphia 136.073
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Under

Game 457-458: Atlanta at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 128.379; NY Giants 135.217
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 55
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Over

Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.937; New Orleans 133.394
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10 1/2); Under

Game 461-462: Houston at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.610; Dallas 129.115
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over

Game 463-464: Buffalo at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.295; Detroit 137.332
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under

Game 465-466: Baltimore at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.229; Indianapolis 139.627
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.104; Jacksonville 126.048
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Arizona at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.433; Denver 140.986
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over

Game 471-472: Kansas City at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.838; San Francisco 136.857
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: NY Jets at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.911; San Diego 129.631
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+7); Under

Game 475-476: Cincinnati at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.630; New England 135.686
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 477-478: Seattle at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.913; Washington 132.393
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 2

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2) - 10/2/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 5

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CHICAGO (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 99-136 ATS (-50.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 4) - 10/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-63 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 0) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) - 10/5/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) - 10/5/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-124 ATS (+23.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 6

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/6/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
SEATTLE is 28-53 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 2nd

Minnesota at Greeen Bay, 8:25 ET
Minnesota: 4-15 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 102-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Sunday, Oct. 5th

Chicago at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 32-51 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Carolina: 78-55 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 19-8 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
Tennessee: 30-14 OVER after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game

St. Louis at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 12-27 ATS against NFC East division opponents
Philadelphia: 5-16 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points

Atlanta at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 14-4 ATS in road games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game
NY Giants: 35-20 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 23-9 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Houston at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Houston: 17-5 UNDER in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
Dallas: 32-14 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Buffalo at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 10-1 ATS off a road loss
Detroit: 10-27 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 22-8 UNDER against AFC South division opponents
Indianapolis: 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 92-63 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Jacksonville: 3-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Arizona at Denver, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 14-4 OVER after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Denver: 46-68 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Kansas City at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 18-6 ATS against NFC West division opponents
San Francisco: 40-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

NY Jets at San Diego, 4:25 ET
NY Jets: 34-19 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Cincinnati at New England, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 19-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
New England: 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games


Monday, Oct. 6th

Seattle at Washington, 8:35 ET
Seattle: 15-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Washington: 27-48 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

[Udog]

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 2

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 7-13-1 SU in its last 21 games ,
Green Bay is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,at home


Sunday, October 5

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. DALLAS
Houston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 10 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. DENVER
Arizona is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing San Diego
NY Jets are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati


Monday, October 6

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 11 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday game
Vikings (2-2) @ Packers (2-2)— Minnesota won 41-28 in Bridgewater’s first career start; he sprained ankle late in game, is expected to play here, but it is his first road start. Vikings scored 34-41 points in their two wins, 7-9 in losses- they ran ball for 186-241 yards in their two wins, 54-59 in losses. Pack is 23-15 in last 38 games as a home favorite, 3-5 in last eight. Vikings are 8-4 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is 7-1-1 in last nine series games, 4-0-1 in last five here, winning by 4-38-9-14 points; their OL struggles show up in running game- they’re averaging 73 ypg on ground, not good. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread. Three of four Viking games stayed under total; three of four Packer games went over.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 5


Chance of messy conditions at Lambeau Thursday night

The Minnesota Vikings will visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field Thursday night, and weather forecasts are calling for potentially sloppy conditions.

There is a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms in the area leading up to - and during - the game, with that increasing to 91 percent as the game wears on.

Currently, the Packers are 9-point home favorites and the total is 47.5.


Bridgewater not practicing but Sharp money on Vikes

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater put on a show in front of the home crowd in Week 4, leading his team to a 41-28 victory - as 5-point dogs - over the Atlanta Falcons.

But cheers turned to gasps from the Minnesota faithful as the Louisville product was carted off with an ankle sprain in the fourth quarter. Still, there was optimism the rookie would start at the Green Bay Packers this week.

News out of Minnesota is that Bridgewater has missed practice both Monday and Tuesday, but early sharp money is still backing the Vikings.

"Thursday night's game opened Green Bay -9.5 and to our surprise, smart money came on the dog and currently we have -9 (-105)," Scott Kaminsky of The Greek told Covers. "If he (Bridgewater) cannot play, Christian Ponder will get the start so you can expect the line to to to +10.5."

[Udog]

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

There are some hefty spreads on the NFL Week 5 board, with plenty of lines hovering around a touchdown.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6

Money jumped on the Cowboys Tuesday night, pushing this spread two points at most books. Dallas is coming off an impressive win over New Orleans on Sunday night and stays home for this Lone Star State showdown with Houston.

“The more I thought about the opening number, the more it seemed too low,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “The wiseguys whacked it on September 30 around 5 p.m. ET and moved it to six. The thing about this Dallas team is that you never know which one is going to show up.”


Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos – Open: -8, Move: -7.5, Move: Off

With the status of Arizona QB Carson Palmer up in the air, Kaminsky pulled this spread off the board until getting further news. However, before the game came down, there was action on the Cardinals – even with Palmer’s status unknown. Other shops are dealing this game between seven and 7.5 in favor of Denver.

“I’m going to put it back up tonight. I don’t think it makes much of a difference if (Palmer) is in or not,” he says. “The first bet we took was on Arizona. The public is split on this game. Arizona has come out 3-0 and has looked impressive. Then you have them going against best quarterback in the league.”


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots – Open: -3, Move: Pick, Move: +1

This line opened before the Patriots’ poor showing against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Sharp money grabbed the Bengals +3 early before Monday’s game went off. They reopened this game at a pick’em and the market is still siding with Cincinnati, making the Bengals 1-point road faves in Foxborough.

“The tell on New England, in hindsight, was the week before when they struggled to beat Oakland at home,” says Kaminsky. “They were up seven at the half and I was convinced they would win by more than a touchdown, so I put up -6.5 (-120) at the half and got it stuck right up my tuckus. They didn’t cover that second half line which shows you just how bad they are.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

[B]Week 5/B]

Minnesota at Green Bay
The Packers host the Vikings on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at home versus Minnesota. Green Bay is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 301-302: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 121.893; Green Bay 140.422
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 18 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5

Game 451-452: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.769; Carolina 130.767
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 453-454: Cleveland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.186; Tennessee 133.182
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over

Game 455-456: St. Louis at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.313; Philadelphia 136.073
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Under

Game 457-458: Atlanta at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 128.379; NY Giants 135.217
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 55
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Over

Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.937; New Orleans 133.394
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10 1/2); Under

Game 461-462: Houston at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.610; Dallas 129.115
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over

Game 463-464: Buffalo at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.295; Detroit 137.332
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under

Game 465-466: Baltimore at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.229; Indianapolis 139.627
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.104; Jacksonville 126.048
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Arizona at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.433; Denver 140.986
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over

Game 471-472: Kansas City at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.838; San Francisco 136.857
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: NY Jets at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.911; San Diego 129.631
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+7); Under

Game 475-476: Cincinnati at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.630; New England 135.686
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 477-478: Seattle at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 136.913; Washington 132.393
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, October 2

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Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Packers
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9, 47.5)

Aaron Rodgers implored anxious fans of the Green Bay Packers to "relax" and then went out and made sure they were able to do just that with a brilliant performance in a lopsided rout at bitter rival Chicago on Sunday. With a much brighter outlook surrounding the team, Rodgers and Green Bay will host another NFC North opponent when the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit on Thursday night. The Packers are 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, including a 26-26 tie at home last November.

Minnesota is hoping it won't have to start its third quarterback in as many weeks after rookie Teddy Bridgewater injured an ankle during last week's 41-28 victory over visiting Atlanta. Bridgewater, the No. 32 pick in this year's draft, threw for 317 yards and ran for a touchdown Sunday in his first career start, but exited the game in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said he is "hopeful" Bridgewater will play after an MRI exam came back clean, but the quarterback did sit out Monday's practice.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network. LINE: Packers -9. O/U: 47

LINE HISTORY: After opening as Green Bay -10, the line has since dropped to -9 on Wednesday. The total has seen a big drop after opening at 50, it now rests at 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Vikings - LB Chad Greenway (Out-Ribs), QB Teddy Bridgewater (Ques-Thurs) Packers - WR Jarrett Boykin (Out-Knee).

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms in Green Bay. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Bridgewater was not the only rookie to make a big impression in Sunday's win. Running back Jerick McKinnon, a converted quarterback out of Georgia Southern, ran for 135 yards on 18 carries as Minnesota rolled up 241 of its 558 yards on the ground after failing to score a TD in its previous seven quarters. Jarius Wright added eight catches for 132 yards to help spark an offense that has already lost stud running back Adrian Peterson following allegations of child abuse as well as starting quarterback Matt Cassel and tight end Kyle Rudolph to injury. Bridgewater on Tuesday declined to give a percentage on his chances of playing and his unavailability would open the door for former first-round pick Christian Ponder.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Following pair of meager offensive outputs in losses sandwiched around a come-from-behind victory over the New York Jets, Rodgers was spectacular in the 38-17 romp in Chicago, throwing for 302 yards and fourth touchdowns while compiling a 151.2 passer rating. Jordy Nelson caught two more scoring passes and leads the league with 33 catches and 459 yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb also went over 100 yards receiving and added two touchdowns to give him five on the season. There are concerns about second-year back Eddie Lacy, who has yet to surpassed 48 yards in a game following his 1,178-yard campaign as a rookie. The defense also is struggling, allowing 235 yards rushing and 496 total to the Bears.

TRENDS:

*Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Packers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
*Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.
*Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.

CONSENSUS: 54.71 percent of users are taking the Packers -9 with 69.8 percent taking the over.


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[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, October 2

Slick field could plague Vikings' Bridgewater and injured ankle

The forecast in Green Bay is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain for Thursday’s game between the hometown Packers and the rival Minnesota Vikings.

While a little wetness won’t force sportsbooks to adjust their odds, bettors looking for an edge when capping the weather need to look no further than Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and his tender left ankle.

The slick field conditions could put an extra strain on Bridgewater’s ankle, something sportsbooks haven’t overlooked as Thursday draws closer, setting the Vikings as 9-point underdogs.

“Bridgewater is still bothered by that ankle,” says Scott Kaminsky of The Greek.com. “(The poor conditions are) going to make it even more difficult on that sprained ankle, and his plant foot could easily give out because of the rain.”

Bridgewater, who passed for 317 yards and scrambled for 27 more gains and a touchdown in his first career start against Atlanta last Sunday, suffered the injury late in the fourth quarter in Week 4 and has a short week to recover before traveling to Wisconsin Thursday. Bridgewater remains optimistic but did sit out practice Monday and Tuesday.

“If he doesn’t play, this game goes up to 10 or 10.5,” says Kaminsky. “You’re bringing in (Christian) Ponder. If (Bridgewater) does play, there’s a good chance the ankle goes with all the sliding around and then you’re stuck with Ponder.”

Kaminsky says that while most books are dealing this game between 8.5 and nine, sharp bettors are buying points on the Packers and taking Green Bay -10 and -10.5.

"Teasers are mounting on Green Bay. That could be an issue."

The total for Thursday’s game is set at 47.5 points. The Packers and Vikings are 20-8-1 Over/Under in their previous 29 head-to-head meetings.

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, October 2


Looking like Bridgewater will sit vs. Packers, worth 1.5 points to spread

It is looking more and more like Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will sit out Thursday night's showdown with the Green Bay Packers with an ankle injury.

ESPN Insider Adam Schefter, is reporting Thursday morning that signs are points to Teddy Bridgewater will not play tonight in Green Bay. Christian Ponder would start in Bridgewater's place.

The Packers are currently 7.5-point home favorites and look for the line to move back towards the Packers as we get closer to kickoff, as Bridgewater could be worth 1.5-points to the line, according to Scott Kaminsky of TheGreek.com.

"Last week there's no way Ponder could have done what Teddy did, even though Teddy is a rookie," Kaminsky told Covers.

The total for the game has also dropped back down to 47.5. It opened at 50 back on Sunday.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 47.5)

Rams’ defensive line vs. Eagles’ poor protection

The Rams’ vaunted defensive line knows it has to pick up the slack if the team is going keep its head above water. St. Louis, which boasts a talented front four featuring the likes of Robert Quinn (19 sacks last season), has been slowed by injuries (Chris Long) and has produced just one sack on the season. At this point last season, St. Louis already has nine of its total 53 sacks on the board.

The Rams catch a break in Week 5 with Philadelphia marching out a make shift offensive line coming off a tough loss to the Niners last Sunday. The Eagles protection has been plagued by injuries, leaving Chip Kelly to lean on some untested linemen. Quarterback Nick Foles has taken some nasty licks through four weeks of football despite being sacked only six times. Philadelphia does get tackle Lane Johnson back from suspension, but he’s nowhere near the shape the Eagles’ up-tempo offense demands.

San Francisco was able to claw its way back into Week 4’s game thanks to gumming up the works with its pressure and not giving the Eagles space to break plays or keep the chains moving on third downs - Philadelphia was just 5 for 13 on third down. If the Rams defensive line can find its form, Foles and the Eagles could be on their heels much of Sunday.


Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 47.5)

Ravens’ overrated run defense vs. Colts’ growing ground game

Baltimore currently sits with the seventh best run defense in the NFL, giving up only 82.5 yards on the ground per game. But digging into those defensive digits, we find that the Ravens may not be as tough against the run as advertised. They’ve played games against Cleveland and Carolina – two teams with issues in the run game – and then limited AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to short gains on the ground.

But did they? Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard rushed for just 48 yards versus Baltimore, but also caught six balls for an additional 62 yards in Week 1. Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell put up only 59 yards rushing versus the Ravens but tacked on another 48 yards on five receptions in Week 2. While those short passes are technically “passes” the yards after the catch might as well be coming off a toss.

Enter Indianapolis and a rushing attack that is quietly gaining momentum in the shadow of QB Andrew Luck and his massive production so far this year. Veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is undergoing a renaissance in Indy, posting 316 total yards – 134 of those on receptions along with four receiving TDs. That puts him just behind top-tier targets Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown and Julius Thomas, who all have five touchdown catches. What’s more, fellow RB Trent Richardson is showing flashes of brilliance, keeping defense honest when it comes to defending Luck.


Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Cardinals passive pass rush vs. Broncos’ QB Peyton Manning

Arizona has had one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL for some time now. A big part of that is the breakneck speed the Cardinals stop unit plays at and its ability to quickly close in on rival quarterbacks.

Arizona still plays at an accelerated pace but there is a major gap in the defense when it comes to the pass rush. It has only three sacks on the year – second lowest in the league – and just put one of its top pass rushers on the shelf (John Abraham on IR with a concussion) before he could even see action.

The Cardinals depend on that pressure to hurry the passer and create opportunities for a playmaking secondary, but without it, foes have all the time in the world to look downfield. And time is not something you want to give to Peyton Manning.

Pressure has been key any time Manning and the Broncos have fallen. The Seahawks were able to sack Manning three times in Week 3’s OT winner over Denver, and got No. 18 on his heels for the majority of Super Bowl XLVIII, posting one sack and picking off two passes. In the three losses before that, Manning was sacked and intercepted at least once, including a four-sack performance from the Colts in Week 7.


Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Pick, 46)

Bengals’ third-down defense vs. Patriots’ third-down offense

Has time caught up with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? The Patriots, once known as an unstoppable offensive machine, has trickled out just 20 points per game like an old man standing at the urinal. New England was shutout for most of its embarrassing Monday loss to Kansas City before managing two scores in the second half.

The Patriots are having issues keeping the chains moving and no mad-scientist system of Belichick’s can get them going. They were 2 for 9 on third downs Monday (only had nine third-down chances!), touching the football for just 23:33. They picked up a mere 13 first downs Monday and are averaging only 17.5 through four weeks. New England has converted on 36.21 percent of its third down snaps heading into this Week 5 matchup.

The chain gang had better bring the WD-40 to get the rust of the yard markers in Cincinnati. The Bengals are holding opponents to a 31.71 percent success rate on third downs – second lowest in the NFL – and had the bye week to fine tune that stop unit and watch what worked for the Chiefs Monday. Cincy tops the league in points allowed, budging for an average of 11 per game so far.