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Week 4 Look-Ahead
September 25, 2014
Thanks to differing opinions about the importance of the NFL's preseason and our proclivity to let the first two weeks of the regular season pass without getting too high or low about results, the wait-and-see approach works for most in September.
Until Week 4.
Now that it's officially Fall and the next batch of games arrive in October, most will find it OK to lose their collective minds over what's gone down thus far. You'll hear the old cliché about how championships can't be won in September, but they can certainly be lost. Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen may be working to keep his job in London, since losing to the Dolphins and dropping to 0-4 may result in his dismissal. Six teams are already in the midst of their bye week. Taking it easy would seem like the last thing anyone would be talking about in NFL circles.
Still, Aaron Rodgers found it necessary to spell out a friendly service announcement for Packers fans to "r-e-l-a-x" on his weekly radio show appearance Tuesday, assuring listeners that an offense which isn't moving as fast as they intend will live up to expectations once everything comes together. He sounded like a hypnotherapist, channeling his Ben Stein voice and preaching patience. It's a nice sentiment, undoubtedly reassuring for Cheeseheads everywhere to hear the face of the franchise try and provide some reassurance, but the message will ring hollow if another loss is the result in Chicago.
And yet, if Rodgers hit Packer nation with a dose of "chillax" following a loss to the Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday, he'd be well within his rights. There would be hope, especially with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in play.
Last year's Philadelphia Eagles opened 1-3, losing 52-20 in Denver during Week 4. They recovered to win the NFC East, becoming the 24th team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to reach the postseason in spite of a losing record through the first four games. The 2001 Patriots overcame the slow start to win the first of three Super Bowls in a four-year span. 36 percent of 2-2 teams have reached the playoffs since '90, while the number for 1-3 squads slips dramatically to 15 percent.
Who knows if Rodgers is aware of all this? Undoubtedly, he'd prefer to escape the opening month at .500, but with seven games left at Lambeau Field over the remaining three months, there will certainly be opportunities to make up ground. New Orleans is in the same boat, left with seven scheduled Superdome dates following Sunday's visit to Dallas. Though rightfully favored to get to 2-2 against the surprising Cowboys, having those home games in their back pocket and Drew Brees slinging the rock guarantees they'll remain in contention so long as he remains healthy.
So, is there a true must-win situation to try and isolate in Week 4 for those of you who like to financially back a heightened sense of urgency?
By my count, there are a whopping nine situations where a team should feel more of a sense of desperation to make sure they walk off the field a winner than the ones facing the Packers and Saints. Although head coaches Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton may respectfully disagree, keep in mind that the 1992 San Diego Chargers remain the lone team to survive an 0-4 start and still reach the postseason, so digging out of that hole is practically impossible.
Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are expected to wind up 0-4 come Monday morning. Both will likely be starting a different quarterback than the one that has lined up under center the past three weeks, since Mike Glennon is expected to fill in for Josh McCown at Pittsburgh, though the veteran hasn't ruled himself out despite a thumb injury that should sideline him a couple of weeks. Rookie Blake Bortles gets the nod at San Diego, despite Jaguars coaches and management having been adamant that they intended to redshirt the first QB taken in this past June's draft behind veteran Chad Henne.
Franchise-wide panic hasn't set in because coaches Lovie Smith and Gus Bradley are firmly entrenched, but as far as this season is concerned, you can write these two off with a loss. Jacksonville has already declared its youth movement underway, but the Buccaneers expected to be part of the playoff hunt far longer than the first few weeks.
Oakland faces the potential obstacle of a winless first month out in London against Miami, another team that can't really afford another loss this early. While the Raiders are fighting for stability since Allen's future is in jeopardy, the Dolphins face an uncertain future at QB with Ryan Tannehill currently being snubbed by head coach Joe Philbin, who has refused to give his young signal-caller a vote of confidence. It's a peculiar development, painting Miami into a corner overseas since a loss means it will head into a bye week with backup Matt Moore probably being handed the reins amid two weeks of questions and no games to deflect attention from a potentially divisive situation.
Philbin is likely trying to motivate Tannehill into quicker decisions, but is taking a major gamble if things don't work out at Wembley Stadium. The possibility exists that Moore comes to Miami's rescue and creates a seamless transition, but it's already an upset that the Raiders seem to have a more stable situation at the game's most important position with rookie Derek Carr.
As unfair as it might be for second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater, he joins Bortles in also looking at a must-win in his first NFL start, but does so under far more dire circumstances. The drama of continuing a season in the wake of the Adrian Peterson scandal falls squarely on his shoulders now that Matt Cassel is done for the season. After an unbeaten preseason and an impressive Week 1 road rout of St. Louis, the bottom is on the verge of completely falling out if they fail to defeat Atlanta at home. The Vikings are forced to play at Green Bay next week, so there is no grace period for Bridgewater as he attempts to keep pace with a Matt Ryan-led offense.
Four other quarterbacks are in positions where they realistically can't afford a loss to be taken seriously as a playoff contender entering October. Barring injury, only one of them is realistically in danger of being replaced. Head coach Rex Ryan publicly went to bat for Jets starter Geno Smith following his error-filled effort on Monday night, hoping to squash Michael Vick rumors before they start swirling out of control.
Whether you want to place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg or the depleted receiving corps that has lacked a true No. 1, Smith has had more interceptions returned for TDs (6) since entering NFL than anyone in the league. His completion percentage while facing pressure is also the lowest among starters. He's turned the ball over on the brink of reaching the end zone in every game thus far. With Detroit in town and a cross-country trek to San Diego scheduled next week, this looms as a potential deal-breaker as far as his status as the franchise quarterback is concerned, especially if Ryan's future is tied to this season's results. Vick's mobility and veteran approach is going to look like a more appealing alternative with every errant Smith throw or turnover, so this Lions game is about as crucial as they come for any team in Week 4, blowing any pressure Green Bay or New Orleans face out of the water by comparison.
San Francisco and Indianapolis harbor Super Bowl aspirations, so they can't realistically afford to fall too far behind. The 49ers do benefit from seeing a number of defensive standouts return in the season's second half, but that won't help them this week against the NFL's most explosive offense. Nick Foles has thrown for 978 yards through the first three contests, which puts an emphasis on Colin Kaepernick and an offense that has been shut down by Chicago and Arizona in the second half of consecutive games, outscored 38-3. The Eagles have outscored opponents 74-24 thus far in 2014, so San Francisco will need to reverse a trend to end September in decent shape.
Andrew Luck's Colts are in far better shape with Tennessee coming tontown, especially since the Titans are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Indianapolis went 6-0 in AFC South games last season and look like the class of the division again, but with games against Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh scheduled for October, it's important to take care of business and avoid a 1-3 start.
The final team faced with a critical Week 4 contest hosts the Patriots on Monday night. Coming off an immense road win in Miami, Kansas City is forced to keep the underwhelming Patriots from finding a rhythm at Arrowhead. Not only are the Chiefs expecting to have Jamaal Charles back, they'll be watching their Alex Smith-Charles-Dwayne Bowe triumvirate take the field for the first time in 2014. So why is it a must-have for a team that won 11 games a year ago? Well, beyond all their defensive injuries, there's the fact that the Chiefs have challenging road games at San Francisco and San Diego surrounding a bye week on tap over the next three weeks. In other words, with Kansas City listed as a home underdog for only the second time in two seasons (Denver, Dec. 1), oddsmakers have the team pegged for 1-5 start.
Indeed, there are teams far worse than the Saints or Packers. Not that the Green Bay quarterback can afford to take his own advice as he look to keep his team from faltering at Chicago.
Relax? Don't do it. Rodgers would just have more ways out of a 1-3 hole than most.
September 25, 2014
Thanks to differing opinions about the importance of the NFL's preseason and our proclivity to let the first two weeks of the regular season pass without getting too high or low about results, the wait-and-see approach works for most in September.
Until Week 4.
Now that it's officially Fall and the next batch of games arrive in October, most will find it OK to lose their collective minds over what's gone down thus far. You'll hear the old cliché about how championships can't be won in September, but they can certainly be lost. Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen may be working to keep his job in London, since losing to the Dolphins and dropping to 0-4 may result in his dismissal. Six teams are already in the midst of their bye week. Taking it easy would seem like the last thing anyone would be talking about in NFL circles.
Still, Aaron Rodgers found it necessary to spell out a friendly service announcement for Packers fans to "r-e-l-a-x" on his weekly radio show appearance Tuesday, assuring listeners that an offense which isn't moving as fast as they intend will live up to expectations once everything comes together. He sounded like a hypnotherapist, channeling his Ben Stein voice and preaching patience. It's a nice sentiment, undoubtedly reassuring for Cheeseheads everywhere to hear the face of the franchise try and provide some reassurance, but the message will ring hollow if another loss is the result in Chicago.
And yet, if Rodgers hit Packer nation with a dose of "chillax" following a loss to the Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday, he'd be well within his rights. There would be hope, especially with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in play.
Last year's Philadelphia Eagles opened 1-3, losing 52-20 in Denver during Week 4. They recovered to win the NFC East, becoming the 24th team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to reach the postseason in spite of a losing record through the first four games. The 2001 Patriots overcame the slow start to win the first of three Super Bowls in a four-year span. 36 percent of 2-2 teams have reached the playoffs since '90, while the number for 1-3 squads slips dramatically to 15 percent.
Who knows if Rodgers is aware of all this? Undoubtedly, he'd prefer to escape the opening month at .500, but with seven games left at Lambeau Field over the remaining three months, there will certainly be opportunities to make up ground. New Orleans is in the same boat, left with seven scheduled Superdome dates following Sunday's visit to Dallas. Though rightfully favored to get to 2-2 against the surprising Cowboys, having those home games in their back pocket and Drew Brees slinging the rock guarantees they'll remain in contention so long as he remains healthy.
So, is there a true must-win situation to try and isolate in Week 4 for those of you who like to financially back a heightened sense of urgency?
By my count, there are a whopping nine situations where a team should feel more of a sense of desperation to make sure they walk off the field a winner than the ones facing the Packers and Saints. Although head coaches Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton may respectfully disagree, keep in mind that the 1992 San Diego Chargers remain the lone team to survive an 0-4 start and still reach the postseason, so digging out of that hole is practically impossible.
Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are expected to wind up 0-4 come Monday morning. Both will likely be starting a different quarterback than the one that has lined up under center the past three weeks, since Mike Glennon is expected to fill in for Josh McCown at Pittsburgh, though the veteran hasn't ruled himself out despite a thumb injury that should sideline him a couple of weeks. Rookie Blake Bortles gets the nod at San Diego, despite Jaguars coaches and management having been adamant that they intended to redshirt the first QB taken in this past June's draft behind veteran Chad Henne.
Franchise-wide panic hasn't set in because coaches Lovie Smith and Gus Bradley are firmly entrenched, but as far as this season is concerned, you can write these two off with a loss. Jacksonville has already declared its youth movement underway, but the Buccaneers expected to be part of the playoff hunt far longer than the first few weeks.
Oakland faces the potential obstacle of a winless first month out in London against Miami, another team that can't really afford another loss this early. While the Raiders are fighting for stability since Allen's future is in jeopardy, the Dolphins face an uncertain future at QB with Ryan Tannehill currently being snubbed by head coach Joe Philbin, who has refused to give his young signal-caller a vote of confidence. It's a peculiar development, painting Miami into a corner overseas since a loss means it will head into a bye week with backup Matt Moore probably being handed the reins amid two weeks of questions and no games to deflect attention from a potentially divisive situation.
Philbin is likely trying to motivate Tannehill into quicker decisions, but is taking a major gamble if things don't work out at Wembley Stadium. The possibility exists that Moore comes to Miami's rescue and creates a seamless transition, but it's already an upset that the Raiders seem to have a more stable situation at the game's most important position with rookie Derek Carr.
As unfair as it might be for second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater, he joins Bortles in also looking at a must-win in his first NFL start, but does so under far more dire circumstances. The drama of continuing a season in the wake of the Adrian Peterson scandal falls squarely on his shoulders now that Matt Cassel is done for the season. After an unbeaten preseason and an impressive Week 1 road rout of St. Louis, the bottom is on the verge of completely falling out if they fail to defeat Atlanta at home. The Vikings are forced to play at Green Bay next week, so there is no grace period for Bridgewater as he attempts to keep pace with a Matt Ryan-led offense.
Four other quarterbacks are in positions where they realistically can't afford a loss to be taken seriously as a playoff contender entering October. Barring injury, only one of them is realistically in danger of being replaced. Head coach Rex Ryan publicly went to bat for Jets starter Geno Smith following his error-filled effort on Monday night, hoping to squash Michael Vick rumors before they start swirling out of control.
Whether you want to place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg or the depleted receiving corps that has lacked a true No. 1, Smith has had more interceptions returned for TDs (6) since entering NFL than anyone in the league. His completion percentage while facing pressure is also the lowest among starters. He's turned the ball over on the brink of reaching the end zone in every game thus far. With Detroit in town and a cross-country trek to San Diego scheduled next week, this looms as a potential deal-breaker as far as his status as the franchise quarterback is concerned, especially if Ryan's future is tied to this season's results. Vick's mobility and veteran approach is going to look like a more appealing alternative with every errant Smith throw or turnover, so this Lions game is about as crucial as they come for any team in Week 4, blowing any pressure Green Bay or New Orleans face out of the water by comparison.
San Francisco and Indianapolis harbor Super Bowl aspirations, so they can't realistically afford to fall too far behind. The 49ers do benefit from seeing a number of defensive standouts return in the season's second half, but that won't help them this week against the NFL's most explosive offense. Nick Foles has thrown for 978 yards through the first three contests, which puts an emphasis on Colin Kaepernick and an offense that has been shut down by Chicago and Arizona in the second half of consecutive games, outscored 38-3. The Eagles have outscored opponents 74-24 thus far in 2014, so San Francisco will need to reverse a trend to end September in decent shape.
Andrew Luck's Colts are in far better shape with Tennessee coming tontown, especially since the Titans are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Indianapolis went 6-0 in AFC South games last season and look like the class of the division again, but with games against Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh scheduled for October, it's important to take care of business and avoid a 1-3 start.
The final team faced with a critical Week 4 contest hosts the Patriots on Monday night. Coming off an immense road win in Miami, Kansas City is forced to keep the underwhelming Patriots from finding a rhythm at Arrowhead. Not only are the Chiefs expecting to have Jamaal Charles back, they'll be watching their Alex Smith-Charles-Dwayne Bowe triumvirate take the field for the first time in 2014. So why is it a must-have for a team that won 11 games a year ago? Well, beyond all their defensive injuries, there's the fact that the Chiefs have challenging road games at San Francisco and San Diego surrounding a bye week on tap over the next three weeks. In other words, with Kansas City listed as a home underdog for only the second time in two seasons (Denver, Dec. 1), oddsmakers have the team pegged for 1-5 start.
Indeed, there are teams far worse than the Saints or Packers. Not that the Green Bay quarterback can afford to take his own advice as he look to keep his team from faltering at Chicago.
Relax? Don't do it. Rodgers would just have more ways out of a 1-3 hole than most.
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