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**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:15 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Undefeated Eagles underdogs in San Fran

As we hit Week 4 of the NFL season, the better matchups are in the NFC, starting with the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles traveling to face the suddenly underwhelming San Francisco 49ers.

The Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been the comeback kings, rallying from behind in all three victories, including Sunday’s 37-34 shootout home win over Washington. Philadelphia, which trailed 17-7 in the second quarter, failed to cash as 4-point chalk.

The Niners, meanwhile, have dumped two in a row after a strong win at Dallas to open the season, and Sunday’s loss was particularly stunning. San Francisco led 14-6 at halftime at Arizona, but didn’t score the rest of the way in a 23-14 loss as a 3-point favorite – with backup QB Drew Stanton pacing the Cardinals to the upset.

Despite that, Bookmaker.eu lines manager John Lester pegged the 49ers 4-point faves.

“The Eagles can’t afford another slow start here,” Lester tells Covers. “The Niners are desperate for a win at this point, especially in their new stadium. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a lot Philly money from their backers and the public.”

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Saints finally got off the deck after their 0-2 SU and ATS start, dropping Minnesota 20-9 for the win and cover as 10-point favorites Sunday. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) have won and covered two in a row, including posting the largest regulation comeback in team history Sunday, coming back from a 21-0 second-quarter hole to win 34-31 as 1.5-point favorites at St. Louis.

Lester has more interest in the total than the spread.

“These are two below-average defenses, so we shaded toward the Over and sent out 53,” he said. “We know that the Saints are a different team on the road, but the bettors believe in them, not the Cowboys. We opened with Dallas as a 2.5-point dog and quickly saw action on New Orleans.”

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Pats haven’t exactly been inspiring early on this season, and Sunday was no different. Laying 14 points against visiting Oakland, New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) scored an ugly 16-9 victory. The Chiefs (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS), another playoff team from last season off to a sluggish start, got their first win Sunday, ripping host Miami 34-15 as 5.5-point underdogs.

Lester thinks New England will be better prepared at K.C., rising to the level of the opponent.

“We’ve seen the Pats sleepwalk through games where they are double-digit chalk, and I fully expect them to be more focused this week heading to Arrowhead, which is still a difficult place to play,” Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, said. “We released Chiefs +3.5, and the early money came in on New England.”

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (N/A)

The Packers (1-2 SU) have yet to cover this season (0-2-1 ATS) and the push came in their lone victory, a Week 2 win at the New York Jets that required coming back from a 21-3 deficit. Green Bay managed just one score in a 19-7 loss at Detroit getting 1 point Sunday.

The Bears, meanwhile, stumbled out of the gate by losing to Buffalo at home, but made a big comeback of their own in Week 2, rallying past host San Francisco for a 28-20 win as 7-point pups.

It should be a typical NFC North slugfest, but with Chicago visiting the Jets in the Monday night game to wrap up Week 3, Lester hasn’t sent out a line yet.

“If there aren’t any major injuries for the Bears against New York, we will likely make them a small favorite with the home-field edge,” Lester said.

Early lines for this game popping up, have this spread around a pick’em.

**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:15 AM

NFL line watch: Don't hesitate on fading aging Brady

Spread to bet now

New England Patriots (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs

Angst is in no short supply in New England, where the offense looks worse than it has in more than a decade and there are rumors that at 37 years old, Tom Brady can no longer cover up whatever might be ailing the rest of the skill-position players.

When word starts to creep across the country about New England’s issues, the line could melt down to a field goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a big victory over the Dolphins (who manhandled the Patriots only a few weeks ago) and look like they at last have a little life.

Alex Smith may not be the new Bart Starr, but he’s still better than any QB the Patriots have faced this season. Kansas City backers should grab the extra point ASAP before this becomes a field-goal line.

Spread to bet later

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Pick)

Early money is heavily on the Lions as bettors were no doubt influenced by Detroit’s victory over Green Bay Sunday. But hang on a bit.

The Lions are not the same team on grass as they are on turf, and while the Jets aren’t football Einsteins, Rex Ryan has some talent to work with.

If serious public money continues to flow in on the Lions, in a few days the Jets might even be getting a point or a point and a half before this one kicks off. If so, it would be an ideal situation for bettors who recognize that the Lions are two different teams – depending on where the game is played.

Total to watch

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (45.5)

Yes, games against the Jaguars still count. The Colts put 44 on the board down in Jacksonville Sunday and should be pedal to the metal again this week against the 1-2 Titans.

Tennessee has given up 59 points in its last two games after taking advantage of a Chiefs team that couldn’t get out of its own way on opening day. With the Titans no more than an average defensive team and the Colts lighting it up and playing at home, the 45.5 frankly looks like a gift for Over players.

**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:17 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

NY Giants at Washington
The Redskins look to bounce back from their 37-34 loss to the Eagles last weekend and come into Thursday's contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Washington is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Game 101-102: NY Giants at Washington (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.825; Washington 135.517
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

Game 251-252: Miami vs. Oakland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.688; Oakland 124.714
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.523; Chicago 130.768
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-1 1/2); Under

Game 255-256: Buffalo at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.975; Houston 131.023
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.743; Indianapolis 137.604
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-7 1/2); Over

Game 259-260: Carolina at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.101; Baltimore 135.296
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 261-262: Detroit at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.527; NY Jets 129.107
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under

Game 263-264: Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.271; Pittsburgh 131.103
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+7 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: Jacksonville at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 130.364; San Diego 135.034
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 13 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+13 1/2); Over

Game 267-268: Philadelphia at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 127.475; San Francisco 143.452
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 16; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 269-270: Atlanta at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 130.316; Minnesota 131.600
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

Game 271-272: New Orleans at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.600; Dallas 131.963
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

Game 273-274: New England at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.145; Kansas City 133.380
Dunkel Line: New England by 6; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:18 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 25

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NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 9/25/2014, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 28

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MIAMI (1 - 2) vs. OAKLAND (0 - 3) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 33-69 ATS (-42.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-3 ATS (+19.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-123 ATS (+21.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 64-43 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 29

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 2) - 9/29/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-123 ATS (+24.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:18 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 25th

NY Giants at Washington, 8:25 ET
New York: 34-16 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Washington: 30-48 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Sunday, Sept. 28th

Miami at Oakland, 1:00 ET
Miami: 36-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Oakland: 16-36 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 101-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Chicago: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game

Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home
Houston: 0-6 ATS off a road loss

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Indianapolis: 41-23 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games

Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
Baltimore: 18-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

Detroit at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 6-17 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
NY Jets: 3-13 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 22-9 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Pittsburgh: 46-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Jacksonville at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 5-13 ATS as an underdog
San Diego: 59-39 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 157-123 ATS against conference opponents
San Francisco: 18-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite

Atlanta at Minnesota, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 18-38 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Minnesota: 36-17 OVER after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:30 ET
New Orleans: 16-6 OVER as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Dallas: 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season

Monday, Sept. 29th

New England at Kansas City, 8:35 ET
New England: 27-12 ATS in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Kansas city: 15-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents

**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:19 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 25

8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Giants

Sunday, September 28

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games ,
Chicago is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NY JETS
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis's last 18 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. HOUSTON
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Houston is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games
Houston is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. PITTSBURGH
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing San Diego
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. MINNESOTA
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
Minnesota is 6-13-1 SU in its last 20 games ,

8:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DALLAS
New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Monday, September 29

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
New England is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
New England is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England

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**Udog** · 09-24-2014, 11:19 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday
Giants (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2)— Only once in their last eight visits here have Giants lost by more than a point; teams split last six series games, after Giants had won previous six. Big Blue is 11-7 in last 18 games as a road dog; they swept Skins 24-17/20-6 LY; they ran ball for 193 yards, passed for 226 in win over Houston last week; they forced first three turnovers of season- their TD drives were 83-2-29 yards, which is how upsets happen. Washington scored 75 points (nine TDs on 24 drives, 5.4 ppd in red zone) in Cousins’ two starts; he threw for 427 yards in Philly last week. Redskins are 14-29 on 3rd down in Cousins’ two starts; they're 5-4 in last nine games as a home favorite. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread so far this year.

**Udog** · 09-25-2014, 08:19 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 25

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Thursday Night Football: Giants at Redskins
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New York Giants at Washington (-3.5, 46)

The New York Giants finally got the offense untracked and broke into the victory column but now face a quick turnaround and a matchup with a bitter division rival when they visit the Washington Redskins on Thursday night. New York rebounded from back-to-back losses to Detroit and Arizona with a 30-17 victory over Houston. "This was huge for us, knowing we had to get this game and get this one under our belts with a short week and not wanting to look ahead," Giants wideout Victor Cruz said.

Washington dropped a shootout in a 37-34 defeat at NFC East foe Philadelphia to drop to 1-2 despite ranking second in the league with an average of 444 total yards. Losing Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury hasn't slowed down the Redskins, who saw backup Kirk Cousins throw for a career-high 427 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, prompting speculation of whether the former will reclaim his job when healthy. “Crazy things have happened in NFL,” Washington coach Jay Gruden told the New York Daily News. “I’m not going to discount anything.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Redskins as 3.5-point favorites. The total opened 45 and is up one point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LB Jon Beason (Questionable, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Out indefinitely, hamstring). Redskins - WR DeSean Jackson (Probable, shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Hatcher (Questionable, hamstring), CB DeAngelo Hall (IR, achilles).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph and there is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+1.5) - Redskins (+1.75) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -2.75

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-2, SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New York raised a few eyebrows in the offseason when it handed a four-year, $14 million deal to free agent Rashad Jennings, but the veteran running back sparked the win over Houston by rushing for a career-best 176 yards. Buoyed by the improved running game, Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a mistake-free outing after tossing a pair of interceptions in each of the first two games. Cruz halted a 12-game touchdown drought and had only his second 100-yard performance in the span as the Giants put up 30 points on a Houston defense that had allowed a total of 20 in the first two games. New York's defense also responded by picking off its first three passes of the season.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Washington's defense was hit hard by injuries in the setback to Philadelphia, losing cornerback DeAngelo Hall (Achilles' tendon) and safety Duke Ihenacho (foot) for the season. Linebacker Brian Orapko, among 11 players who were limited in practice Monday, is dealing with a torn ligament in his middle finger but said he plans to play against the Giants wearing a hard cast. Pierre Garcon bounced back from a one-catch game versus Jacksonville with 11 receptions for 138 yards while DeSean Jackson played through an ailing shoulder to also go over 100 yards and match Garcon with a touchdown. Alfred Morris has rushed for 253 yards on the season but is averaged only 3.6 yards per carry the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
* Under is 5-1 in Redskins last six vs. NFC East.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Redskins.

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**Udog** · 09-25-2014, 08:21 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 25

Ideal conditions for Giants-Redskins matchup

The weather should be rather ideal in Landover, Maryland as the Washington Redskins host the New York Giants in an NFC East rivalry on Thursday Night Football this week.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph during the game.

Oddsmakers have Washington as 3.5-point home faves with a total of 45.5.

**Udog** · 09-25-2014, 08:22 AM

Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and football bettors are starting to get a tighter grip on the layout of the league. And that means more opinions – often going against what oddsmakers think – making for some interesting moves in the middle of the week.

We speak with Nick Bogdanovich, head of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about the biggest adjustments to the Week 4 odds and where those games could end up come kickoff.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Action on this game has varied from place to place. Some online books have moved as much as a point in favor of the Giants for this NFC East Thursday Night Football game, while others have taken Washington money after opening at a field goal, dealing Redskins -3.5. Whatever the reason, it seems like the half-point hook is what the market dictates.

“Obviously, this is a rivalry game and a big divisional game for these teams,” Bogdanovich tells Covers. “The Giants looked impressive last week and so did Washington. Right now, we’re heavy on the Redskins. Maybe those bettors didn’t drink the Giants punch?”

Detroit Lions at New York Jets – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

This non-conference clash opened as low as a pick’em, but early money jumped on Detroit – not so much for their impressive win over Green Bay, but due to the Jets’ terrible showing on Monday Night Football. New York was just 1 for 6 in the red zone and wasted plenty of scoring chances thanks to three turnovers (four fumbles, one lost).

“People tend to bet what they’ve seen last. And Detroit looked great against Green Bay while New York was Turnover City against the Bears,” says Bogdanovich, who opened Detroit -1 and moved to -1.5. “We’ll likely need the Jets pretty good by the time the bell sounds on this one.”

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears – Open: -1, Move: +1.5

This line has jumped the fence with early action from the wiseguys settling on Green Bay, despite their 0-2-1 ATS start to the season. As of Wednesday afternoon, books haven’t seen much money on Chicago, which has won two in a row in primetime games since losing to Buffalo in Week 1.

“It must be all pro plays because we have everything on Green Bay right now,” Bogdanovich says. “There’s nothing on Chicago and we’ll likely need the Bears. They won two isolated games on Sunday night and Monday but the pros are on Green Bay and we’ll need Chicago to win something Sunday.”

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -4, Move: -5.5

When it comes to lines for the 49ers in Nevada, you get dealt two very different sets depending on where you are. Books in Las Vegas have a tighter number between these two NFC heavyweights, but that number could be much bigger if you move up north – closer to the Bay Area and a ton of money on San Francisco.

“This is a very interesting game. Philly is 3-0 and was hyped coming into the season, but while this isn’t a must-win game for Frisco, it’s a big game,” Bogdanovich tells Covers. “It’s a later game on Sunday, a marquee game. We normally need against Frisco in these spots but I couldn’t tell you which way the money is going to go. This is the game I want to watch the most.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: -4, Move: -3

The early money on this question mark of a game has leaned toward Buffalo. However, nobody really knows which one of these teams is for real. Both the Bills and Texans come in at 2-1 and off bad losses in Week 3.

“One of these teams is going to be 3-1 and the other is going to say, ‘Oh, here we go again.’” says Bogdanovich. “There’s a little more on Buffalo than Houston at this point.”

**Udog** · 09-25-2014, 02:43 PM

NFL

Thursday, September 25

Rain in the forecast for Thursday Night Football

Washington hosts the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football and there is some weather in the forecast you should take a look at before making your wagers for this NFC East showdown.

There is a 100 percent chance of rain at FedEx Field tonight. Temperatures in the low 60s around kickoff with humidity reaching a high 90 percent. There will also be a slight six mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

Washington is currently a 3.5-point home fave with the total sitting at 45.5.

**Udog** · 09-26-2014, 09:54 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3.5, 41)

Bills’ rushing attack vs. Texans’ tackling troubles

The Bills could have the most dynamic run game in the NFL. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and a run-capable QB in E.J. Manual, who can break off big gains on the ground as well.

Sure, they only rank 11th overall with 131 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo was forced to abandon the run after falling behind early to San Diego in Week 3. The Bills rushed 33 times in each of their first two games but handed it off only 22 times versus the Chargers, still running for almost four yards per carry.

Houston was bowled over by the Giants’ makeshift backfield for 193 yards in Week 3’s 30-17 loss. The Texans defense allowed 131 rushing yards versus Washington and 101 yards on the ground to Oakland the weeks before and is coughing up 5.2 yards per attempt – second worst in the NFL.

Houston’s defense relies on turnovers but that can often lead to poor tackling – with players trying to strip the carrier – and guys getting out of position while trying to make a play on the ball. On top of what Buffalo can do on the ground, Spiller and Taylor can do damage on short passes as well, with the Bills averaging 7.55 yards after the catch – second most in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 44.5)

Jaguars’ pass rush vs. Chargers’ RB-less offense

The Chargers have had bad luck with their rushing corps early in the season, losing both Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead to injury. That leaves Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver in the Bolts backfield – two running backs not striking fear in the hearts of defenses, even if that defense belongs to the Jaguars.

San Diego has been able to dominate time of possession thanks to a balance between the run and pass – third in NFL at 34:00 – but may have no choice but to pick up the pace and pass the ball a lot Sunday. The Chargers have run the ball on 49.49 percent of their plays so far – fourth most in the league – but a drastic change in game plan could leave QB Philip Rivers vulnerable to one of the most underrated pass rushes out there.

Jacksonville sits tied for the league lead with 10 sacks heading into Week 4, including two sacks in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Jaguars defense has spent the most amount of time on the field, there’s no denying talents like DE Andre Branch and DT Sen'Derrick Marks are able to crumble an offensive line and put the squeeze on opposing passers. It just sucks for the Jags that they’ve come up against three very powerful offensive clubs in the Eagles, Redskins and Colts.

Jacksonville will ignore the Bolts' run game on most downs and refuse to bite on playaction, instead teeing off on the San Diego offensive line with everything they’ve got.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 50.5)

Eagles’ fantastic fourths vs. 49ers’ fourth quarter no-show

In essence, Chip Kelly’s offense isn’t about beating you in the first quarter, or even the first half. It’s about winning the fourth quarter, which is just what the Eagles have done through the first three weeks.

With its opponents sucking wind after chasing the up-tempo attack around all game, Philadelphia has outscored opponents 40-14 in the final frame. Quarterback Nick Foles has gotten off to some bumpy starts but always rights the ship in time for the victory, posting a 143.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter – tops in the NFL.

The Niners have faded in the fourth, watching wins against Chicago and Arizona slip away. San Francisco has yet to score in the fourth quarter – an insane stat - while allowing foes to hang 31 points on the board in the closing 15 minutes.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been downright dog crap in the fourth, with a QB rating of 48.4, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times while boasting just 159 total yards of offense – passing and rushing – in those 45 minutes.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Saints’ coaches vs. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Sean Payton and Rob Ryan may not agree on everything these days (see heated sideline exchange) but they can both agree on their disdain for the Dallas Cowboys – and owner Jerry Jones. While Payton and Jones remain on “good terms”, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator Ryan, who was unfairly fired from his job with the Cowboys two years ago.

The pair didn’t hold back when New Orleans blew away Jones’ Cowboys 49-17 as a 6-point favorite last November, improving Payton’s record to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against his former employer since leaving Big D for the Big Easy (wasn’t on sideline in 2012 due to suspension).

The Cowboys aren’t getting much help against the Saints – or any opponent for that matter – with rival jerseys littering the stands. Jones’ $1 billion AT&T Stadium has become a vacation destination for football fans, who gladly invade the Lone Star State to cheer on their squad. Some of the loudest cheers came from 49ers fans during Dallas’ Week 1 opener versus San Francisco.

Cowboys DT Henry Melton complained to the media this week about the lack of home-field advantage in Arlington, pleading with Dallas fans to “don’t just stay out in the parking lot, come on in.” Unless Melton is forking over $110.20 per head – the average ticket price for a non-premium seat – expect a sea of Black and Gold in Dallas Sunday night. Don't blame the fans. Blame Jerry. He's got to keep the lights on.

**jcindaville** · 09-26-2014, 10:22 AM

Thanks Udog

**StarDust Bum** · 09-26-2014, 06:01 PM

Sharp Moves - Week 4

September 26, 2014

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 4!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #263) Tampa Bay +7.5 – The spot, in and of itself, is a sharp spot to analyze. The Bucs are undervalued after getting blown away last week against Atlanta, while the Steelers are overplayed after killing Carolina last week. However, Tampa Bay is on a long week of prep after playing on Thursday, while Pittsburgh is on a short week after playing on Monday. Yes, the Buccaneers have to travel to Heinz Field, but this feels like a game that the black and gold could legitimately blow. The line has moved just a bit, but there is enough action on the other side of this one to keep the oddsmakers holding this number at 7.5, though some have put the number up at 9, which isn't all that much of a shift.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +7.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on Pittsburgh

(Rotation #252) Oakland +3.5 – It's not the sharpest play on the face of the earth, but the fact of the matter is that the betting public hates the Raiders for the most part. This is a 50/50 proposition in terms of who is betting the game, but the line is moving in the wrong direction if you like Miami. For what it's worth to us though, the Dolphins are a mess. They have annoyed QB Ryan Tannehill by not endorsing him as the starter any longer (though they aren't saying that he isn't the starter either), and the defensive players have been complaining about the game plan and in-game decisions made on that side of the ball. This is a recipe for a disaster for Head Coach Joe Philbin, and we wouldn't be stunned if he is fired when this one is over if the sharp bettors cash.

Opening Line: Oakland +5
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 50% on Miami

(Rotation #265) Jacksonville +13.5 – We know. We're tired of betting on Jacksonville and being wrong, too. The Jaguars are 0-3 SU and ATS, and outside of that first game of the season against Philly, they don't deserve to have covered any of those games either. However, QB Blake Bortles might end up being a bit of a savior, and the Chargers have a ton of problems at both the running back position and the linebacker position. We have a feeling that the running backs could be an issue, as the only back that is healthy that was on the roster at the start of the season, RB Donald Brown, is averaging just two yards per carry this year. It's a lot of points to be giving Jacksonville in this one.

Opening Line: Jacksonville +15.5
Current Line: Jacksonville -15.5
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on San Diego

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 25 - Monday, September 29)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 25 - Monday, September 29)

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