NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 18 - Monday, September 22)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


Showers in Cleveland's forecast Sunday

The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North showdown, and the game get messy early on if current weather forecasts hold true.

Forecasts are calling for a 69 percent chance of thunderstorms before and during the game.

Furthermore, wind is forecast to blow toward the east endzone at roughly 15 mph.

The Browns are currently 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 41.5.


Rain, thunder could plague Chargers-Bills showdown

The unbeaten Buffalo Bills will host the San Diego Chargers from Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday, but rain and thunder could an appearance during the game.

According to forecasts, there is an 83 percent chance of thunderstorms leading up to and during the 1 p.m. kickoff.

Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the high-60s to low-70s and wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.


History bodes well for the Saints Sunday

According to a tweet from Football Perspective, the New Orleans Saints will be the seventh team since 1978 to begin an NFL season 0-2 straight up and be a double-digit fave in their third game of the season.

In those previous six games, the 0-2 clubs have won all six SU, but are 3-3 ATS.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 10.5-point home favorites with the Minnesota Vikings in town.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 3 line moves

Now that we've moved on to the third week of the NFL season, oddsmakers and bettors are starting to get a better idea of where certain football teams stand. Underdogs were impressive in Week 1, posting an 11-5 record against the spread, and still have the edge heading into Sunday's action with a 19-13-1 mark at the betting window.

With that in mind, we talk to sportsbooks about the betting patterns, sharp and public money, and where they see the lines ending up come kickoff Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills - Open: Pick, Move: -2, Move: -2.5

In the wake of a tumultuous offseason, the Buffalo Bills have begun the season with great promise. With wins at the Chicago Bears and versus the Miami Dolphins, they've also started the season with a perfect 2-0 ATS record to satisfy faithful Bills backers.

The Chargers are coming off a big 31-20 home victory over the Seattle Seahawks, covering as 4.5-point home pups in the process.

But the journey to Buffalo, and a game that figures to be played in un-San Diego like conditions, has betters supporting the home squad.

"Early money sees trouble with the Chargers traveling cross country, but I expect some buy back due to the proximity to San Diego," says Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker with South Point Sportsbook. "This should close at -1.5."

"We opened the Bills -1 and took some sharp action on the Bills at that number which forced us to Bills -2.5 and now we are dealing Bills -2," says Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag.

Houston Texans at New York Giants - Open: +2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -1.5

MetLife Stadium is the scene as the winless New York Giants host the unbeaten Houston Texans. A Texans' victory here and they'll have already surpassed their entire win total from last season.

The Giants have been dismal out of the gate and have been frustrating for their supporters, failing to cover as 6.5-point dogs at the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and as 1-point home favorites with the Arizona Cardinals in town one week ago.

"We opened the Texans -2.5 with the defense playing well but we've seen Giants money with bettors giving them another chance," Vaccaro says. "There's nothing significant here, but parlay card people are using the Texans on their tickets."


"We initially made the Giants a 2.5-point dog at home, but there's a growing sense among the gambling community that they're 'due'," John Lester, Senior Lines Manager for Bookmaker.eu told Covers. "Houston doesn't look like a 3-0 squad, but the Giants are bad. Tossup sounds about right."

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins - Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

Books opened the Fish as 4.5-point home faves, but following a poor, unconvincing effort at Buffalo in Week 2 - after a big home win against the Patriots to begin the season - action has been on the visiting Chiefs.

The Chiefs are winless straight up, but showed a positive effort in Week 2, covering as 13-point dogs at the Denver Broncos.

"We opened the Fish as a 5-point favorite but have gone down to 3.5 has we are booking nothing but Chiefs action to the tune of 67 percent," Stewart said.

The Dolphins have had the upper hand in the win column and at the betting window in recent matchups, posting 3-0 SU and ATS records in the previous three meetings between the two AFC teams.

"We opened the Dolphins -4.5 and I think we opened too high," Vaccaro tells Covers. "The Dolphins took a beating from the Bills and the Chiefs were able to hang around with the Broncos last week. The Dolphins just look mediocre and I think this will close -3.5."

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -4.5, Move: -5, Move: -4.5

The marquee game of Week 3 pits last season's Super Bowl participants at CenturyLink Field as the Denver Broncos look for revenge against the Seattle Seahawks and the vaunted 12th Man.

Peyton Manning and Co. will look to eliminate the bad taste left from a 43-8 thumping in the Super Bowl.

Sharps backed the champs early, but it was the public that moved the spread back to its original number.

"Sharps took a small position with the Seahawks early in the week but the public has moved the spread back to the opener of -4.5," Lester says.

"We have been bouncing between Seahawks -5, -4.5 all week as the action has been fairly even with the Seahwaks getting 63 percent of the action up to this point," Stewart tells Covers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

Sunday's finale sees the Carolina Panthers hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on the Sunday Night Football national stage.

History is not on Carolina's side, however, as the Steelers take a perfect 5-0 ATS record into Back of America Stadium in the all-time series. The Steelers covered as 14-point home faves, winning 27-3 the last time these two met back in 2010.

"Opened this Carolina -3.5 with the Panthers playing harder than we thought," Vaccaro says. "We've opened this at the right number and we've seen minimal action, but the money so far is on the Steelers with parlay cards picking up the slack."

"We were looking for Pittsburgh money when we opened at -3.5 and we've gotten it," Lester confirms. "The spread will likely close at the current number and the total might get pushed a point higher being the Sunday night game."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


Chargers playing to under vs. AFC

The San Diego Chargers will have to try follow up an impressive win over the defending Super Bowl champs last week, by flying across the country and taking on the Buffalo Bills in an early afternoon matchup trending towards the under.

The under is 11-2 in San Diego's last 13 games versus the AFC. Sunday's game against the Bills currently has a total sitting at 45.


Rams on impressive total streak

The St. Louis Rams have the perfect combination for an under run, a solid defense and a backup quarterback running the offense.

The Rams have gone under the game total in seven consecutive games.

St. Louis hosts the Dallas Cowboys Sunday where the total currently sits at 44.


Redskins have trouble covering after big wins

Washington rallied behind backup quarterback Kirk Cousins after Robert Griffin lll went down with another injury and thumped the Jacksonville Jaguars 41-10, unfortunately Washington has trouble riding that moment to another cover.

Washington is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games following a straight up win and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.

Washington visits Philadelphia Sunday, where the Eagles are currently 5.5-point home favorites.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, September 21


September a cruel month for Giants backers

The New York Giants have stumbled out of the gates the last couple of seasons and it has cost bettors early in the season.

The Giants are haven't covered a spread in their last seven September games, putting up an 0-6-1 ATS record.

New York hosts the Houston Texans Sunday, where the Giants are currently a slight 2-point home favorite.


Saints a surprisingly strong under bet vs. NFC

The Saints have struggled to start the season, but what is more surprising is that the Saints have been a strong under play against the NFC.

The under is 12-3 in New Orleans' last 15 games against NFC opponents and they will welcome another to Super Dome Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings come to town. The total for the game is currently at 49.


Bengals on red-hot ATS tear at home

The Cincinnati Bengals are not only look like one of the NFL's best teams in this young season, they are also red-hot tear when it comes to covering the spread on their home turf.

The Bengals have covered the spread in 10 consecutive regular season home games.

Cincinnati is currently favored by a touchdown for their Sunday matchup with the visiting Tennessee Titans.


Over trending follwing big Browns wins

The Cleveland Brown are coming off a big 26-24 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 2 and that result means the Browns are trending towards the over this week.

The over is 7-0 in the Browns last seven games following an ATS win and is 4-0 in the Browns last four games following a straight up win.

The Browns host AFC North division rivals Baltimore Sunday, where the Ravens are currently 2-point road faves.


Favorite streaking in this NFC North matchup

The Detroit Lions are looking to take the next step, while the Green Bay Packers want to show this is still their division as the two NFC North rivals clash Sunday and it has been the favorite who has had the edge, at least against the spread.

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the division rivals and it is the Lions who are currently 2-point home favorites against the visiting Packers.


Colts have ability to bounce back for bettors

Despite the fact the Colts are coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in Andrew Luck's career, their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars is trending in Indy's direction.

The Colts are 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 games following a straight up loss, they are also 12-2 ATS following an ATS loss.

To make matters worse for the Jags, the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six road teams versus a team with a losing home record and are 10-1 ATS in thier last 11 versus the AFC South. They are currently 7.5-point road favorites.


Raiders struggle to cover after loss

It has not been the season the Oakland Raiders envisioned at the start of the season and their history says it won't be a good week to back them once again.

Despite getting 13.5-point this Sunday on the road against the Patriots, the Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Bears at Jets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5, 44)

Jay Cutler threw four touchdown passes as the Chicago Bears rallied from a 17-point deficit to defeat the San Francisco 49ers a week ago. Cutler already has six touchdown passes and looks to add to that total when the Bears visit the New York Jets on Monday night. Cutler is 6-1 on Monday Night Football, including three straight wins, with 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions.

While the Bears rallied, the Jets imploded last week, squandering an 18-point advantage in their upset bid at Green Bay - a loss that came in typical New York fashion. Just when it appeared that the Jets had climbed back into a tie with the Packers on a long touchdown pass by Geno Smith late in the fourth quarter, officials ruled that New York offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg called timeout before the play began. Rex Ryan's group will look to bounce back from that disaster and beat the Bears for the first time since 2000.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Jets as 1-point home faves, but that is now -2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and is down to 44.

INJURY REPORT: Bears - WR Alshon Jeffery (Probable, hamstring), DE Jared Allen (Probable, back), C Roberto Garza (Questionable, ankle), S Chris Conte (Questionable, shoulder), DT Jeremiah Ratliff (Questionable, head). Jets - RB Chris Johnson (Probable, ankle), CB Dee Milliner (Questionable, quad), WR Eric Decker (Questionable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (-2) + Jets (+2.25) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -1.25

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Chicago's comeback on Sunday night was even more unlikely considering that Cutler actually seemed to respond after taking a huge blow to his ribs. He threw three scoring passes to Brandon Marshall and the Bears' defense shut down the 49ers in the second half. But, not all went well for Chicago, which lost five starters on the defensive side of the ball in the contest, including All-Pro cornerback Charles Tillman, who is out for the season with a torn triceps muscle.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): The Jets could be without top receiver Eric Decker (hamstring) but they may want to run the ball anyway against a Chicago defense which ranks 27th in the league against the rush (160 yards per game). On defense, New York has yet to solve its problematic secondary and allowed Jordy Nelson to romp for 209 yards receiving last week. New York won its home opener but that victory is looking increasingly unimpressive as it came against Oakland, which appears to be one of the worst teams in the league.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.
* Over is 15-2 in Jets last 17 games in Week 3.

CONSENSUS: As of Sunday evening, 65 percent of wagers on Consensus were backing the Bears.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 22


Forecasts calling for a clear evening for MNF

The weather forecast looks promising for the Chicago Bears visit to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

According to Weather Underground, skies will be sunny and clear with temperatures hovering between the high-50s and low-60s. Wind will blow toward the south endzone at around seven mph.

The Jets are currently 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 44.


Bears wide receiver questionable for Monday game

Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has been listed as questionable heading into the Monday Night game at the New York Jets.

Jeffery is still not 100 percent following a hamstring injury which kept him questionable last week leading into the game at the San Francisco 49ers.

The South Carolina product ended up playing in that game, catching three passes (six targets) for 47 yards.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 22


Chargers, Bengals off to hot ATS start

Three weeks into the NFL season and there are just two teams left with unblemished records against the spread, the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Diego Chargers.

The Bengals, who throttled the Tennessee Titans 33-7 Sunday, are now 3-0 straight up and ATS, covering by an average of 12 points per game.

Meanwhile the Chargers, went into Buffalo and came out with a convincing 22-10 road win to improve to 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU. The Chargers are 2-0 ATS on the road this season.


Broncos ice cold ATS to begin the season

With Sunday's loss to the Seattle Seahawks and failure to cover the spread, the Denver Broncos slipped to an 0-3 record against the spread to begin the season.

Last season, the Broncos stormed out of the gate with an ATS mark of 3-0-1 before taking their first ATS loss.

The last time the Broncos went 0-3 ATS in their first three games was in 2007. They failed to cover in their first give games and finished the season 5-11 ATS.

Denver gets a bye in Week 4 but will host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.


Four best over plays after Week 3

Three weeks into the NFL season and the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles have been the best over plays to this point.

All four teams have put up a 3-0 over/under record this season, some for good reasons and some not so much.

The Colts and the Eagles seem to have a good balance of scoring and mediocre defenses, while the Jaguars just get scored on. A lot.


Five teams cashing big for under bettors

The Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Viking and Tennessee Titans have been the best under plays so far in this young NFL season.

All five teams have put up 0-3 over/under records so far this season.

The Bengals and Cardinals have put up dominant fronts on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Bills, Vikings and Titans have been sufficient on defense, but aren't not putting up a ton of offense.


Bengals only NFL team that hasn't been sacked

The Bengals are now the lone team in the NFL to not allow a sack yet this season. In fact, no other team has less than two. For reference, in the same time span the Jacksonville Jaguars have been sacked 17 times. The continuation of the clean sack sheet partially goes to the quick passes and lack of plays requiring more than three seconds in the pocket.