Announcement

**Udog** · 09-17-2014, 10:11 AM

NFL opening line report: Broncos 4.5-point dogs in Super Bowl rematch

Sometimes you have to take a close look at the NFL schedule to figure out which game is the marquee matchup. But there’s no such dilemma in Week 3.

Bettors and fans get a Super Bowl rematch when the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to loud-and-proud Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) on Sunday.

Seattle steamrolled Denver in last season’s title game, winning 43-8 as a 1.5-point underdog.

This time, though, the Seahawks are favored, with the line opening at -4.5. John Lester, the lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, doesn’t expect a rout this time, but he does expect a Seattle win, with the squad aiming to bounce back from a 30-21 loss at San Diego laying 4.5 points.

"It’s the marquee game of Week 3, and everyone will be running to bet on the Super Bowl rematch,” Lester said. “I don't see the outcome being much different this time around. It will certainly be a closer game, but the Seahawks are still the team to beat, despite last weekend’s setback. They don't lose in the Northwest, especially a game of this magnitude. They will be very focused after the loss, and sharps should be on Seattle at the open of -4.5."

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

The NFC North is a logjam, with all four teams at 1-1 SU. Green Bay (0-1-1 ATS) at least comes in with a little steam, rallying from a 21-3 deficit on the road against the New York Jets to snare 31-24 victory and push as a 7-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Detroit (1-1 ATS) followed its 35-point outburst in a season-opening win over the New York Giants by mustering just one score in a 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 1-point pup.

"These are two teams with potent offenses but some serious problems along the offensive lines,” Lester said. “I'm still not sold on the Green Bay defense, particularly the pass rush. The Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches, and because of that, I give them a slight nod. Everyone expects a shootout, and we opened with a total of 52.”

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) comes in unbeaten, while San Fran (1-1 SU and ATS) dumped the home opener at its luxurious new stadium, losing 28-20 to Chicago as a 7-point fave Sunday. But Lester isn’t too concerned about the Niners, nor too impressed with the Cardinals.

"The Cardinals were a Philip Rivers fumbled snap away from losing in Week 1, and they beat a pathetic Giants team (Sunday),” Lester said. “While I like their defense, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Like most over-hyped former USC quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never had much respect for Carson Palmer.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s him or Drew Stanton (starting), the Niners deserve to be chalk here."

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Carolina has gotten out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS, rolling Detroit 24-7 Sunday as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored just nine points since holding a 27-3 halftime lead over Cleveland in the season opener. The Steelers narrowly won that contest, 30-27, failing to cash as 5.5-point chalk, and they got ripped last Thursday at Baltimore 26-6 catching 2.5 points.

"I'm a little surprised at how efficient the Panthers have been offensively,” Lester said. “I thought they would struggle throwing the ball and protecting Cam Newton, but (offensive coordinator) Mike Shula has done a heck of a job with a lot of new faces so far. We opened at Panthers -3.5 to try and bait some Pittsburgh money, and I can see this eventually dropping to the key number.”

**Udog** · 09-17-2014, 10:11 AM

NFL line watch: Don't bide your time when it comes to betting Bills

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)

By the time we get into the holiday season it’s likely that lack of depth will have brought the Bills down to earth, but for right now it’s time to enjoy the ride. The 2-0 Bills are alone in first place in the AFC East and are slight favorites at home when the Chargers travel 3,000 miles East for what amounts to a 10 a.m. kickoff for San Diego this Sunday.

Buffalo has to love the way the season has unfolded, with QB EJ Manuel doing nothing to disrupt an offense which has turned the ball over only once in eight-plus (overtime in Week 1) quarters. Buffalo can flat out run the ball behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and Sammy Watkins (eight catches for 117 yards and a TD against Miami in Week 2) is frightening good.

With a new deep-pockets owner ready to take over, things are looking up for the first time in a long time in Western New York. This one is set up for the Bills to win.

Spread to wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants

Who would have thought it would come to this – the Giants underdogs at home to a team that was the worst in the league last season?

That’s where the G-Men find themselves after submitting two turkeys in a row to start the year. Fingers are being pointed at orchestra conductors Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and another bad game at home could make things very ugly, very fast in East Rutherford.

Early wagers have hopped on Houston and if the number sticks at 2.5 for another day, it could move to a field goal by midweek. So, if you like New York to get things turned around, hang on a bit and see if you can get the significant half point.

Total to watch

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (52)

Everyone is 1-1 in the wide-open NFC North, and the only thing for certain is that the Packers defense doesn’t appear to be able to stop anyone.

Both Green Bay games have gone Over despite the fact that the offense hasn’t kicked it into second gear yet. The inability to run the ball (no Green Bay running back has more than 43 yards in a game this year) has puts some pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions’ D-Line will only make matters worse.

Bettors should take a good hard look at the Over in this game as the Packers spend the week trying to mend their defense.

**Udog** · 09-17-2014, 10:12 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 9/18/2014, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 99-135 ATS (-49.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-122 ATS (+22.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (1 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-122 ATS (+25.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (2 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (0 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 1) - 9/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/21/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-17-2014, 10:12 AM

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 18

8:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay

Sunday, September 21

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-8-1 SU in its last 10 games ,on the road
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. BUFFALO
San Diego is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games when playing at home against Denver
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CAROLINA
Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Monday, September 22

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 3-4-2 ATS in their last 9 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-17-2014, 10:13 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday
Bucs (0-2) @ Falcons (1-1)-- Tampa Bay lost first two home games despite facing teams playing backup QBs; they're 9-13 in last 22 games as road dog- LSmith had 8-15-1 mark in his last 24 games as AU with Bears. Falcons are 23-14-1 as favorite at home under MSmith, 8-5-1 in division play. Teams split season series last three years, after Falcons had won five in row before that; Bucs lost five of last six visits here, with three of last four losses here by 6+ points. There were 149 first downs via penalty in Weeks 1-2; Bucs were only team not to allow one, but they also have only one takeaway (-3), unusual for a Lovie-coached team. Atlanta has five TDs, all on drives of 77+ yards; defense has one takeaway, not creating short field.

**Udog** · 09-18-2014, 06:09 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Buccaneers head to Atlanta on Thursday night to face a Falcons team that is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Game 301-302: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.604; Atlanta 133.983
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game 451-452: San Diego at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 137.307; Buffalo 136.513
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over

Game 453-454: Dallas at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.626; St. Louis 129.051
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.664; Philadelphia 133.025
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Over

Game 457-458: Houston at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 127.949; NY Giants 134.441
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 459-460: Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.850; New Orleans 139.351
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 461-462: Tennessee at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.195; Cincinnati 134.636
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Over

Game 463-464: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.833; Cleveland 131.210
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.296; Detroit 131.573
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 132.315; Jacksonville 120.903
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 469-470: Oakland at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.591; New England 136.268
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14 1/2); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 135.650; Arizona 130.782
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Denver at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.616; Seattle 143.283
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Kansas City at Miami (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.641; Miami 131.426
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: Pittsburgh at Carolina (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 133.371; Carolina 132.532
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

Game 479-480: Chicago at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.597; NY Jets 135.009
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-18-2014, 06:13 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 18

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 8:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 9-6 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders
Atlanta: 28-13 OVER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more

Sunday, Sept. 21st

San Diego at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 56-36 as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 8-23 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival

Dallas at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 12-27 ATS in road games off a non-conference game
St Louis: 12-26 ATS against NFC East division opponents

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 37-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 4-13 ATS in home lined games

Houston at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Houston: 16-6 OVER in road games in September
NY Giants: 0-6 in September games

Minnesota at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 51-26 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
New Orleans: 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 15-5 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
Cincinnati: 7-0 after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 59-38 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a home win
Cleveland: 21-37 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 OVER in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Detroit: 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 19-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Oakland at New England, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 4-13 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games
New England: 10-2 off 1 or more consecutive unders

San Franciso at Arizona, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 14-17 UNDER against conference opponents
Arizona: 1-6 UNDER after a win by 10 or more points

Denver at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Denver: 47-26 OVER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Seattle: 14-5 ATS in home lined games

Kansas City at Miami, 4:25 ET
Kansas City: 14-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 158-111 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest

Pittsburgh at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season
Carolina: 17-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Monday, Sept. 22st

Chicago at NY Jets, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 13-4 OVER in road lined games
NY Jets: 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better

**Udog** · 09-18-2014, 06:18 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Buccaneers at Falcons
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 44.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened the season with a pair of narrow home losses and now face the prospect of playing the next three on the road, beginning with Thursday night's matchup against the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers are trying to avoid a repeat of last season's disastrous campaign, when they opened with eight straight setbacks. "It's trying to take a deep breath, see the big picture," quarterback Josh McCown said. "We want to win right now."

Tampa Bay's injury-riddled defense will have to find a way to contain Matt Ryan and Atlanta's potent offense, which rolled up 37 points in a season-opening win versus New Orleans before coming back to earth in last week's 24-10 loss at Cincinnati. "When you turn the ball over three times, you're not going to win," Ryan said. "I have to be better." The Falcons, who went 4-12 last season and wound up tied with the Buccaneers for last place in the division, have split the past six meetings against Tampa Bay.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 5.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -7, before settling back down at -6. The total has held steady at 44.5 points.

INJURY REPORT: Tampa Bay - RB Doug Martin (questionable Thursday, knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkis (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE Michael Johnson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (out Thursday, hand). Atlanta - WR Roddy White (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OT Jake Matthews (questionable Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+4.25) - Atlanta (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons (-8.75)

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Tampa Bay has been decimated by injuries and is expected to be without two more starters on defense after Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy (broken hand) and middle linebacker Mason Foster (dislocated shoulder) were hurt last week. Starting running back Doug Martin returned to practice Tuesday after missing Sunday's game with a knee injury, but backup Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards in his absence. The passing game ranks 31st in the league and has yet to click under McCown, who has three interceptions versus two TDs and is averaging 181 yards per contest. The Buccaneers will be hard-pressed to slow down Ryan and company after facing a pair of lightweight passing attacks in the first two weeks.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Ryan tossed three scoring passes and set a franchise record with 448 yards passing in a come-from-behind win over New Orleans, but he was picked off three times and failed go get the ball in the end zone until the fourth quarter at Cincinnati. Julio Jones appears fully recovered from the foot injury that cut short his 2013 season, snatching 14 receptions for 204 yards and a TD, but fellow wideout Roddy White missed practice on Tuesday due to a hamstring injury to put his availability in doubt. While Steven Jackson has rushed for only 98 yards in the first two contests, a more pressing concern is a defense that ranks dead last in the league - allowing an average total of 472 yards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four Thursday night games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last four home games versus a team with a losing road record.

CONSENSUS: A big 69 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons at -6 in this division showdown.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-18-2014, 11:06 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 18

Thursday Night Football essential odds update

We are just hours away from the kickoff of Week 3 in the NFL and we have your essential odds update heading in the Thursday night matchup featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Atlanta Falcons.

As of Thursday morning the Falcons are currently 6-point home favorites over their division rivals. The Falcons opened as 5.5-point favorites and have been as high as -7.

Meanwhile, the total has been on the rise since opening at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45.5.

**Udog** · 09-18-2014, 12:43 PM

NFL

Thursday, September 18

Home teams covering with ease on Thursday night

Home teams have dominated when it comes to covering the spread on Thursday Night Football this season and the Atlanta Falcons hope the trend continues tonight when the Buccaneers come to town.

Home teams are 2-0 straight up and against the spread in the first two games and have covered by an average of 16.5 points.

The Falcons are currently 6-point home favorites for their Thursday night NFC South division showdown with the Bucs.

**Udog** · 09-19-2014, 08:28 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 50.5)

Half-point hook vs. Eagles’ poor starts

This 6.5-point spread is the second highest line for a Redskins-Eagles contests in the past five seasons (Eagles -7 in 2011-12 season finale) and could easily climb even higher by the time these NFC East rivals kickoff Sunday.

Washington is without starter Robert Griffin III, which will convince the public to pound 2-0 Philadelphia. However, Redskins backup QB Kirk Cousins would be a starter on almost half of the other teams in the league and is undervalued by many even after giving RG3 a go for his No. 1 spot in the preseason.

Eagles backers have soaked through their shirts this season. Philly fell behind 17-0 to the Jaguars as 10-point favorites but battled back to win 34-17 in Week 1. And this past Monday, the Eagles were down 20-6 to the Colts in the third quarter before outscoring Indianapolis 24-7 and winning the game outright as a 3-point pup.

Philadelphia has been outscored 34-6 in the first half of its first two games, turning the tables with a 58-10 assault in the final two quarters. Will another slow start be in store for Sunday? And if so, can Philadelphia recover in time to get past that half-point hook? Well, they'll have to deal with a stingy Washington defense that has only allowed a pair of field goals in second halves so far - lowest second-half points allowed in the league.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 53)

Packers’ poor protection vs. Lions’ sack-happy defense

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already been sacked seven times, which is seven times more than the Packers would like after Rodgers missed seven games due to injury in 2013. "Mr. Discount Double Check" was blasted versus Seattle in the opener, taking three sacks, then was rocked for four QB kills against the Jets in Week 2.

The Packers offensive line is a bit of a mish-mash. There are a couple stalwarts on the line, in Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, but inexperience has been its biggest weakness. Second and first year protectors have been shifted around since tackle Bryan Bulaga went down (questionable for Week 3), and replacement Derek Sherrod has allowed pass rushers to get the best of him.

Detroit’s biggest strength on defense is its ability to pressure the passer – making up for a soft secondary. The Lions have seven sacks through the first two weeks, including four against the Panthers last Sunday, and will need to get to Rodgers quickly before he can hit his targets downfield. Detroit only got to Rodgers once in its lone meeting against him in 2013, but did sack the crap out of Matt Flynn – seven times for 37 yards – when it played the Packers backup at home in late November.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Broncos’ revenge vs. Seahawks’ stumble

The NFL schedule offers the Broncos a rare opportunity in Week 3. This is just the sixth time in NFL history that the previous Super Bowl combatants have faced each other in the following season. And it’s a game that’s been on Denver’s mind since the confetti flew in its face at MetLife Stadium this past February.

The Broncos have had revenge on their minds all offseason, if you couldn’t tell by the way the roster beefed up on elite defenders like LB DeMarcus Ware, S T.J. Ward, and CB Aqib Talib. And just in time for this Super Bowl rematch, Denver’s division rival San Diego laid down some bread crumbs for the Broncos to follow after stunning the Seahawks 30-21 in Week 2.

Just like Drago in Rocky IV, the Chargers proved that Seattle can bleed – “OK, you've hurt him, now he's nervous, it hurt! You see Rocky, he's not a machine! He's a man!” The Seahawks have been more concerned with defending their loss to the Bolts than talking about the Broncos, and should be worried that Peyton Manning and TE Julius Thomas will hook up like Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates, who scored three times in Sunday’s victory over the champs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)

Steelers’ versatile catch/run game vs. Panthers overrated rush defense

A quick glance over the NFL’s defensive categories, and you’d think Carolina was locking down the ground game like leg shackles – ranked sixth in the league, allowing only 86 rushing yards through the first two weeks. And why not? This Panthers stop unit finished 2013 with the third-best run defense (89.2 ypg).

Well, you’re all stupid. Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll see that Carolina has faced the fewest rush attempts in the league through Weeks 1 and 2. Opponents – Tampa Bay and Detroit – have only run the ball an average of 17.5 times. The Buccaneers fell behind and gave up on the ground while the Lions were never big fans of running to begin with. But despite a lack of action on the turf, the Panthers’ opposition is still picking up 4.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will look to exploit that overrated run defense with playmaking RB Le'Veon Bell, who leads the NFL with 308 yards from scrimmage – 168 of those coming on the ground. Bell is picking up 5.2 yards per carry and has already reeled in 11 passes for 12.4 yards per catch.

And behind the flash-and-dash of Bell is bowling ball LeGarrette Blount. He hasn’t seen much action this season – 14 yards on seven attempts – but has been a thorn in the side of his former NFC South rival, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in four career games versus Carolina.

**Udog** · 09-19-2014, 08:30 AM

Who's the best bet in Super Bowl rematches: Winners or Losers?

Sequels are hardly as good as the original, but what happens when the original was just downright terrible?

Football fans had to sit through the Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 drubbing of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII last February, after it was promoted as the greatest Super Bowl showdown of all time. Denver opened as a slight underdog at some books but closed around -1.5 by kickoff, but it only took one possession to see which team was the superior squad.

Now, in Week 3 of the 2014 season, these two NFL mega powers collide with Seattle tabbed as a 5-point home favorite in the Super Bowl rematch. Books opened at Seattle -4.5 and money on the home side has boosted the defending champs half a point as of Wednesday.

And with good reason too. In Super Bowl rematches the following season, it’s been the reigning champions who have provided the most profits when it comes to the odds. It’s a rare occurrence, happening only five times before, but in three of those five rematches the defending Super Bowl winner has covered the spread.

As for the two ATS blemishes, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV in 1970 then lost 27-10 as 12-point favorites the following season. The 1993 Dallas Cowboys fell 13-10 as 5-point chalk to the Buffalo Bills, after smashing their opponent 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII that winter.

Those two Super Bowls were pretty lopsided, so perhaps there’s hope for the Broncos’ as revenge fueled underdogs Sunday afternoon. Denver did take a 21-16 victory over Seattle at home in the preseason, covering as a 1-point underdog in Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Here’s a look at each of those five previous Super Bowl rematches:

Super Bowl IV (1970): Chiefs defeated Vikings 23-7
Rematch (1970): Vikings won 27-10 in Week (KC L-12)

Super Bowl XI (1977): Raiders defeated Vikings 32-14
Rematch (1977): Raiders won 35-13 in Week 13 (OAK W -8)

Super Bowl XIII (1979): Steelers defeated Cowboys 35-31
Rematch (1979): Steelers won 14-3 in Week 9 (PIT W -10)

Super Bowl XXVII (1993): Cowboys defeated Bills 52-17
Rematch (1993): Bills won 13-10 in Week 2 (DAL L -5, U44.5)

Super Bowl XXXI (1997): Packers defeated Patriots 35-21
Rematch (1997): Packers won 28-10 in Week 9 (GB W +1.5, U45)

**Udog** · 09-21-2014, 07:37 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Chargers (1-1) @ Bills (2-0)-- Buffalo is +4 in turnovers; they won field position by 14-22 yards, thats why they're 2-0. Bills are 7-2 vs spread at home under Marrone, 1-1 when favored- they're 6-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers hung 30 points on Seattle last week, after blowing second half lead in Arizona week before; Bolts are 10-3-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, but 2-7 in last nine games on artificial turf. San Diego won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 37-10 at home in '11. Chargers are just 4-9-1 in game following their last 14 wins. Bills are only team not to gain a first down via penalty this season- there have been 149 such first downs in two weeks of play.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Rams (1-1)— Tampa Bay’s Rainey ran for 144 yards vs Rams last week, with Bucs having little passing threat; St Louis will have to do better vs explosive Murray and Romo’s passing—Dallas ran for 220 yards in decisive win at Tennessee last week, but Cowboys are just 10-19 vs spread in game following last 29 wins, 11-15-1 in games where spread was 3 or less (Rams are 6-4 in such games under Fisher). Pokes are 3-7-1 as road favorites in Garrett era. 3rd-string QB (not anymore) Davis led road win in first NFL start at Tampa. Home side won last four series games; Dallas split two visits here, last of which was in ’08-- Rams lost 34-7/31-7 in last two games with Dallas, in ‘11/’13. Former Ram head coach Linehan is play-caller for Dallas; he is a better play caller than he was a head coach.

Redskins (1-1) @ Eagles (2-0)—Iggles are first-ever NFL team to start season 2-0 when they trailed both games by 14+ points in second half; they’ve been held without TD in first half of six of last 12 games, but scored 3+ TDs in second half in last four of those- they’ve won seven of last 10 games with Redskins, but Washington is 4-3 in last seven visits here. Cousins started last three games LY, so this isn’t new for him; he was 22-33/250 with two TDs in relief of RGIII in last week’s easy win—he’s moving up in class here. Skins covered once in last seven games as road dog, failing to cover last four tries as road dog. Eagles are 4-4 as home favorite under Kelly, 10-17 in last 27 as HF overall; they’re 6-8 off a win, 5-5 under Kelly.

Texans (2-0) @ Giants (0-2)—Houston started out 2-0 LY, never won another game; Giants started 0-6, so sense of urgency for both sides here, though Big Blue’s leaky OL is source of great concern for immobile Manning. Texans allowed only three TDs in first two games; they’re 9-7-1 as road favorite since ’10, 14-10-1 off a win, but 6-12-3 vs NFC teams. Giants are 4-7 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they lost to Cardinal backup QB Stanton last week- they’re 5-12-1 in games vs AFC foes. Giants won two of three in seldom-played series; Texans lost 14-10 in only visit here (’06). Giants are 4-5-1 in last ten games as home underdog, 4-6 in game following their last ten losses.

Vikings (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)—Peterson is out for Vikes here, as Zimmer is dealt cruel blow after waiting until age 58 for HC job. Minnesota is 10-5-1 vs spread off a loss, 12-9 in last 21 games as road dogs- they ran ball for only 54 yards last week, lost field position by 22 yards, in addition to getting FG blocked for TD. Cassel threw four picks last week, is headed into a hornet’s nest this week. NO in desperate straits here after losing first two games on road by total of five points, despite scoring 55 points; they’ve won five of last six home openers, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine. Saints are 18-3 as home favorites last three years, 20-6-1 vs spread in last 27 non-divisional home games. Seven of their last ten home openers stayed under total.

Titans (1-1) @ Bengals (2-0)—Cincy looking like strong outfit after outgaining Atlanta by 163 yards with +3 turnover ratio in easy win, week after they pulled out divisional road win at Baltimore; Bengals won three of last four in series where road team won five of last seven meetings. Titans won six of last seven visits here, in what used to be divisional rivalry. Bengals covered last four tries as non-divisional home favorite, after being 7-21-1 in that role from ’04-’12; they’re 23-10 vs spread in game following their last 33 wins. Titans covered four of last six as road underdog, 11 of last 16 non-divisional road games- they’re 18-14-3 off a loss. Cincy will try to establish Bernard on ground after Dallas ran for 220 yards vs Titans last week.

Ravens (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)—Cleveland’s first two games were decided by total of five points; they’ve rallied to tie/take lead in both games-- their 24-18 win over Ravens in last meeting LY snapped 11-game series skid. Baltimore won five of last six visits here (their old home) with all five wins by 10+ points. Last 12 series games were all decided by 12+ points. Ravens lost 10 of last 13 road openers; they’re 5-10-1 vs spread on road last two years, 2-8 in last 10 road games SU. Hoyer is 4-1 as Browns’ starting QB; Cleveland put up 27-26 points vs two of better teams in NFL, though Saints have bad defense. Browns covered five of last seven divisional home games. Ravens are 7-11-1 in last 19 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Packers (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)—Green Bay won 15 of last 17 games in this rivalry, and Rodgers didn’t play in either loss; Pack split last four visits here- they were down 21-3 at home to Jets last week, after losing opener at Seattle, but rallied to even record. Pack covered 17 of last 24 NFC North road games; they’re 8-9 SU in last 17 road games, 4-9 vs spread in last 13 games on artificial turf, 8-11 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 8-15-1 vs spread in game following its last 24 losses; they’re 6-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less, 8-4 in last 12 NFC North home games. Lions ran ball for only 76-70 yards in first two games. Pack lost field position by 14-6 yards in first two games; they have three 80+-yard TD drives.

Colts (0-2) @ Jaguars (0-2)—Jax has been outscored 75-10 in three halves since they led opener 17-0 at half in Philly; they’ve lost last three games with Indy by 17-24-20 points, after winning four of five vs Colts before that. Jags are 6-18-1 in last 25 games as home dog, are facing Colt squad that blew 20-6 3rd quarter lead Monday, after losing opener in Denver, so Indy is 0-2, but they played two of best three teams in NFL- now they’re playing one of worst. Indy won 27-10/37-3 in last two visits here; they’re 15-6-1 in last 22 games as a road favorite, 4-1-1 under Pagano. Over last six years, Colts are 13-4-1 as an AFC South road favorite. Jags lost five of last seven home openers, scoring total of 25 points in last three.

Raiders (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)—New England won 11 of last 12 home openers, but are 3-5 vs spread in last eight; they’re 15-9 in last 24 games as a non-divisional home favorite, but 1-7 in last eight games when laying double digits. Pats won last three games with Oakland by 10-23-12 points. Raiders are only team starting a rookie QB; they’re just 5-21 on 3rd down, and lost opener in Swamp with a +2 turnover ratio (NFL teams are 17-2 this year with a +2 or better TO ratio). Oakland is 8-6-1 in last 15 games as a non-divisional road dog, but covered only once in last five games as a double digit dog. Patriots have only six second half points in two games, but they had big lead at half last week and didn’t need to score after halftime.

49ers (1-1) @ Cardinals (2-0)—Palmer’s arm is an issue; backup Stanton was 14-29/142 in win at Swamp last week, as Redbirds won despite being outgained by 75 yards- they were +4 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards. Arizona lost nine of last ten games with 49ers, losing last four, with three of four by 12+ points; Niners won four of last five visits here, with three of the five decided by 4 or less points. SF allowed six first downs via penalty last week; they’re just 5-7 vs spread in last 12 divisional road games, compared to 14-6-1 in last 21 non-division road tilts; they’re 19-6-4 vs spread in game following last 29 losses. Arizona is 4-7-1 in NFC West home games, 7-3-1 after last 11 wins, 7-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less.

Broncos (2-0) @ Seahawks (1-1)—Seattle crushed Broncs 43-8 in Super Bowl in February, are smarting after giving up 30 points in San Diego last week, with Bolts converting 10-17 on 3rd down. Seattle is 13-5 as home favorites under Carroll, 16-8-1 after a loss, 12-4 in non-divisional home games, 8-8-1 vs AFC teams. First road game for Denver squad that scored only 10 second half points in two home wins; Broncos won five of last seven visits here, are 4-6 in last ten road openers, but 4-2 as an underdog in road openers. Denver is 20-12-1 vs spread off a win under Fox, 4-3 as road dog under Fox. Last time they were a road dog was Week 5 of ’12. Denver is 7-4-2 vs spread in last 13 games vs AFC teams. Curious to see if #18 goes after mouthy CB Sherman the way Chargers did.

Chiefs (0-2) @ Dolphins (1-1)—KC was 2-14 in 2012, then started out 9-0 LY; now they’re on 2-8 skid after going -3 in turnovers in 0-2 start this year, with no takeaways (-3). Chiefs are 3-1 as road dog under Reid- they covered last five divisional road games. Over last decade, Miami is 11-29 as home favorite, 4-5 under Philbin; they have covered seven of last ten non-divisional home games. Fish won last three series games by 3-7-28 points, but teams haven’t met in three years; Chiefs lost seven of last eight visits to South Beach, but last visit was in ’06. Will south Florida heat wilt a depleted (seven starters out) Chief team? Thru two weeks, non-divisional home favorites are 8-11 vs spread league-wide.

Steelers (1-1) @ Panthers (2-0)—Since 2004, Steelers are 19-6 as an underdog of 3 or less points; second straight primetime road game for Pitt, which had three extra days to prep after Thursday loss in Baltimore. Steelers won last four games with Carolina since losing 18-14 here in ’96, with all four wins by 10+ points. Pitt is 21-18-1 vs spread after a loss (7-9 last two years), 10-6 in last 16 vs AFC teams. Panthers are 10-4-1 as home favorite under Rivera, 6-8-1 vs NFC teams, 10-4 off a win- they’re +6 in turnovers (+3 in both games) already, haven’t allowed a first half point. New Carolina receivers are doing fine; they averaged 6.3 yards/pass attempt at Tampa, 6.4 last week, with two different QBs playing.

Bears (1-1) @ Jets (1-1)—Chicago lost at home to Buffalo, won at SF, hard team to figure; they’ve only run ball for 132 yards in two games, have only four plays of 20+ yards- with their WRs, they should have more of those. Bears are 3-12-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; they’ve won last three games with Jets by 7-10-4 points, are 3-1 vs Jets in Swamp, with average total 22.0 in those four games. Gang Green is 4-0-1 in last five vs NFC, 20-13 under Ryan when spread was 3 or less points- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 non-divisional home games. Jets ran ball for 146 yards at Lambeau, had 21-3 lead, but couldn’t hold it for 2-0 start- they’ve forced only one turnover (-2) this season, but do have three TD drives of 80+ yards.

**Udog** · 09-21-2014, 07:45 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Broncos at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 48.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos certainly won't lack for motivation when they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday with a chance to avenge a humiliating beating in last season's Super Bowl. It's only the sixth time in league history that a Super Bowl rematch will occur in the following regular season and gives Denver an opportunity ease the pain of a 43-8 thrashing at the hands of Seattle. To do so, the Broncos must upend an opponent that is 16-1 in its last 17 at home.

The Seahawks' defense was the toast of the NFL after shutting down Manning and a high-powered attack that eclipsed the league record for points scored in a season, but Seattle did not look so invincible in last week's 30-21 setback at San Diego. Manning, who shattered NFL single-season marks for touchdown passes (55) and yards (5,477) in 2013, is off to another fast start with three touchdown passes in each of Denver's first two wins. Wide receiver Wes Welker makes his season debut for the Broncos after his four-game suspension was cut in half by the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened with the Seahawks -4.5, but that is now -5. The total has held at 48.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - WR Wes Welker (Probably, suspension), LB Lerentee McCray (Out, knee). Seahawks - TE Zach Miller (Questionable, ankle), RB Marshawn Lynch (Questionable, back), RB Christine Michael (Questionable, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-7.5) - Seahawks (-6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks (-1.75)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low 80s with wind blowing from the west at 3 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While the revenge factor - “This is what we've been waiting for,” wideout Andre Caldwell said - cannot be overstated, Denver must figure out a way to keep its collective foot on the throttle after nearly blowing big halftime leads in home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. "We're still figuring out what our strengths are, what things we can improve on and what things we can eliminate," Manning said after the Broncos scored a combined 10 second-half points in their first two games. Newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (team-high 14 catches) has thrived in the absence of Welker while tight end Julius Thomas already has hauled in four scoring passes, but running back Montee Ball has rushed for only 127 yards and is averaging 3.6 per carry. Denver's retooled defense, featuring DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, ranks 30th in passing yards allowed (300.5).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Although Seattle had no answer for tight end Antonio Gates in last week's loss, it is a different team playing at rowdy CenturyLink Stadium, as evidenced by a dominating 36-16 victory over Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in the season opener. "They're really loud, they're really raucous and they always have great energy," All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman said of the league's loudest venue. "It really gives us a chance to feed off their energy." Although quarterback Russell Wilson, who played flawlessly in the Super Bowl victory, has four TDs and is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes, the normally dominating defense gave him few chances by allowing San Diego to hold the ball for over 42 minutes. Wideout Percy Harvin has more yards rushing than receiving, but the key for Seattle is Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for only 36 yards on six carries last week.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games on fieldturf.
* Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last four games in September.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Week 3.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the visiting Broncos.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 18 - Monday, September 22)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 18 - Monday, September 22)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment