The Bum's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 25


Ideal conditions for Giants-Redskins matchup

The weather should be rather ideal in Landover, Maryland as the Washington Redskins host the New York Giants in an NFC East rivalry on Thursday Night Football this week.

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph during the game.

Oddsmakers have Washington as 3.5-point home faves with a total of 45.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Giants at Redskins
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Giants at Washington (-3.5, 46)

The New York Giants finally got the offense untracked and broke into the victory column but now face a quick turnaround and a matchup with a bitter division rival when they visit the Washington Redskins on Thursday night. New York rebounded from back-to-back losses to Detroit and Arizona with a 30-17 victory over Houston. "This was huge for us, knowing we had to get this game and get this one under our belts with a short week and not wanting to look ahead," Giants wideout Victor Cruz said.

Washington dropped a shootout in a 37-34 defeat at NFC East foe Philadelphia to drop to 1-2 despite ranking second in the league with an average of 444 total yards. Losing Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury hasn't slowed down the Redskins, who saw backup Kirk Cousins throw for a career-high 427 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, prompting speculation of whether the former will reclaim his job when healthy. “Crazy things have happened in NFL,” Washington coach Jay Gruden told the New York Daily News. “I’m not going to discount anything.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Redskins as 3.5-point favorites. The total opened 45 and is up one point to 46.

INJURY REPORT: Giants - LB Jon Beason (Questionable, foot), WR Odell Beckham (Out indefinitely, hamstring). Redskins - WR DeSean Jackson (Probable, shoulder), TE Jordan Reed (Questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Hatcher (Questionable, hamstring), CB DeAngelo Hall (IR, achilles).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph and there is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+1.5) - Redskins (+1.75) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -2.75

ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-2, SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): New York raised a few eyebrows in the offseason when it handed a four-year, $14 million deal to free agent Rashad Jennings, but the veteran running back sparked the win over Houston by rushing for a career-best 176 yards. Buoyed by the improved running game, Eli Manning threw for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a mistake-free outing after tossing a pair of interceptions in each of the first two games. Cruz halted a 12-game touchdown drought and had only his second 100-yard performance in the span as the Giants put up 30 points on a Houston defense that had allowed a total of 20 in the first two games. New York's defense also responded by picking off its first three passes of the season.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Washington's defense was hit hard by injuries in the setback to Philadelphia, losing cornerback DeAngelo Hall (Achilles' tendon) and safety Duke Ihenacho (foot) for the season. Linebacker Brian Orapko, among 11 players who were limited in practice Monday, is dealing with a torn ligament in his middle finger but said he plans to play against the Giants wearing a hard cast. Pierre Garcon bounced back from a one-catch game versus Jacksonville with 11 receptions for 138 yards while DeSean Jackson played through an ailing shoulder to also go over 100 yards and match Garcon with a touchdown. Alfred Morris has rushed for 253 yards on the season but is averaged only 3.6 yards per carry the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Giants are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
* Under is 5-1 in Redskins last six vs. NFC East.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Redskins.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants at Redskins

September 24, 2014

It’s seems like a battle of last-place teams getting together in Washington on Thursday night, but the winner of the Giants/Redskins game is back to 2-2 and right in the NFC East race. The Eagles have rallied for three victories to start 3-0, but have a tough trip to San Francisco on Sunday, while the Cowboys are short home underdogs to the Saints looking for their third straight win. Now, New York and Washington are trying to show its worth in the NFC East at the quarter mark of the season.

The Giants finally broke through the win column in last Sunday’s 30-17 victory over previously unbeaten Houston as one-point home favorites. New York dominated in spite of losing a fumble at the Houston 10-yard line in the first quarter, while botching a field goal attempt early in the second quarter. But, the Giants scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half to take a 14-0 advantage and never look back. New York got its running game going as Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown after racking up just 110 yards in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

The Redskins have been up and down through three weeks of the season, starting with a 14-3 defeat to the Texans as short road underdogs. Washington turned it around in its home opener by routing Jacksonville, 41-10 as five-point favorites, while racking up 449 yards of offense. However, the team lost quarterback Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury as Kirk Cousins stepped up to throw for 250 yards and two touchdown passes.

Cousins remains the starter at quarterback for Washington until Griffin is healthy, as the Redskins scored just one touchdown in 13 drives with the former Baylor star under center. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Cousins put up a career-best 427 yards passing, but the Redskins couldn’t hold onto a 17-7 lead in a 37-34 setback at Lincoln Financial Field. Washington covered as four-point underdogs thanks to a Roy Helu touchdown run with 4:16 left to get within the number, while the ‘over’ of 50 ½ easily hit.

The Giants have owned this series since 2008, winning nine of the past 12 meetings with the Redskins. Last season, New York swept the two-game set, with both victories coming in the final month. Tom Coughlin’s team picked up a 24-17 triumph as one-point favorites at FedEx Field in Week 13 despite accumulating just 286 yards of offense. Three weeks later, the Giants salvaged the regular season finale in a 20-6 rout of the Redskins at Met Life Stadium as 3 ½-point favorites. Prior to 2013, Washington covered the previous five meetings, while the Redskins were last listed as a home favorite over New York in 2007, a 24-17 defeat as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’

Primetime games have been an ‘over’ bettors’ dream this season, going 8-2 to the ‘over.’ On Thursday night games, the ‘over’ is 2-1, including the Falcons trouncing the Buccaneers last week, 56-14 on a 47 total. All three home favorites have easily covered in Thursday night action as the Seahawks, Ravens, and Falcons have all won by double-digits, while limiting opponents to a combined 36 points.

Since October 2008, the Redskins own a 5-11 ATS record as a home favorite, dating back to the dreaded Jim Zorn era. Making that number a little more relevant to what the roster currently looks like, Washington is 5-3 ATS since the start of 2012 in this role. The last two seasons have been a major difference against division opponents, as the Redskins went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the NFC East in 2012, while going backwards in 2013 with an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.

The Giants were blown out in the season opener at Detroit, but New York has cashed in 12 of its past 20 games in the role of a road underdog since 2011. Last season, the Giants won two of three road games against NFC East foes, while posting a 5-3 SU/ATS record in its previous eight away contests within the division.

Washington is currently listed as a 3 ½-point favorite at most books, while the total is set between 45 ½ and 46. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST from FedEx Field and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Here is my Rated Plays on Thursday-Sunday-Monday Night Football

Thursday Night

09/04,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Seattle - 5.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Green Bay Under 46.5 Triple Play ( Loser ).........................36 - 16

09/11.........................Pittsburgh + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )....................Baltimore Over 44.0 Double Play ( Loser )............................6 - 26

09/18.........................Atlanta - 6.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Tampa Bay Over 47.0 Double Play ( Winner ).......................56 - 14


*****..................0 - 0

Double Play.......3 - 2

Triple Play..........0 - 1

Lights Out..........0 - 0

Side 2 - 1

Total 1 - 2

Rated Total..........3 - 3.............50.00%


Sunday Night

09/07...........................Indianapolis + 3.5 ***** ( Winner )...........................Denver Under 53 ***** ( Loser )...................24 - 31

09/14...........................Chicago + 7l.0 Double Play ( Winner ).........................San Fan Over 47.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........28 - 20

09/21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pittsburgh + 3.0 Triple Play ( Winner ).........................Carolina Over 42.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........37 - 19

*****,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 - 1

Double Play.........1 - 0

Triple Play...........3 - 0

Lights Out...........0 - 0

Sides.................3 - 0

Total.................2 - 1

Rated Plays........5 - 1............83.33 %



Monday Night

09/08..........................N.Y. Giants + 4.5 **** ( Loser )...........................Detroit Over 45 Double Play.................14 - 35

..........................Arizona - 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )........................San Diego Under 46.0 ***** ..............18 - 17

09.15..........................Philadelphia + 3.0 Double Play ( Winner ).................Indianapolis Under 53.5 *****.............30-27

09/22.........................??????????????????????? ????????????????

*****..............................1 - 2

Double Play........................2 - 1

Triple Play..........................0 - 0

Lights Out.........................0 - 0

Sides....................1 - 2

Total.....................2 - 1

Rated Totals.................3 - 3...................50.00%


Thursday, September 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants - 8:25 PM ET N.Y. Giants +3 500 *****

Washington - Over 45 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3.5, 41)

Bills’ rushing attack vs. Texans’ tackling troubles

The Bills could have the most dynamic run game in the NFL. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and a run-capable QB in E.J. Manual, who can break off big gains on the ground as well.

Sure, they only rank 11th overall with 131 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo was forced to abandon the run after falling behind early to San Diego in Week 3. The Bills rushed 33 times in each of their first two games but handed it off only 22 times versus the Chargers, still running for almost four yards per carry.

Houston was bowled over by the Giants’ makeshift backfield for 193 yards in Week 3’s 30-17 loss. The Texans defense allowed 131 rushing yards versus Washington and 101 yards on the ground to Oakland the weeks before and is coughing up 5.2 yards per attempt – second worst in the NFL.

Houston’s defense relies on turnovers but that can often lead to poor tackling – with players trying to strip the carrier – and guys getting out of position while trying to make a play on the ball. On top of what Buffalo can do on the ground, Spiller and Taylor can do damage on short passes as well, with the Bills averaging 7.55 yards after the catch – second most in the league.


Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 44.5)

Jaguars’ pass rush vs. Chargers’ RB-less offense

The Chargers have had bad luck with their rushing corps early in the season, losing both Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead to injury. That leaves Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver in the Bolts backfield – two running backs not striking fear in the hearts of defenses, even if that defense belongs to the Jaguars.

San Diego has been able to dominate time of possession thanks to a balance between the run and pass – third in NFL at 34:00 – but may have no choice but to pick up the pace and pass the ball a lot Sunday. The Chargers have run the ball on 49.49 percent of their plays so far – fourth most in the league – but a drastic change in game plan could leave QB Philip Rivers vulnerable to one of the most underrated pass rushes out there.

Jacksonville sits tied for the league lead with 10 sacks heading into Week 4, including two sacks in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Jaguars defense has spent the most amount of time on the field, there’s no denying talents like DE Andre Branch and DT Sen'Derrick Marks are able to crumble an offensive line and put the squeeze on opposing passers. It just sucks for the Jags that they’ve come up against three very powerful offensive clubs in the Eagles, Redskins and Colts.

Jacksonville will ignore the Bolts' run game on most downs and refuse to bite on playaction, instead teeing off on the San Diego offensive line with everything they’ve got.


Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 50.5)

Eagles’ fantastic fourths vs. 49ers’ fourth quarter no-show

In essence, Chip Kelly’s offense isn’t about beating you in the first quarter, or even the first half. It’s about winning the fourth quarter, which is just what the Eagles have done through the first three weeks.

With its opponents sucking wind after chasing the up-tempo attack around all game, Philadelphia has outscored opponents 40-14 in the final frame. Quarterback Nick Foles has gotten off to some bumpy starts but always rights the ship in time for the victory, posting a 143.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter – tops in the NFL.

The Niners have faded in the fourth, watching wins against Chicago and Arizona slip away. San Francisco has yet to score in the fourth quarter – an insane stat - while allowing foes to hang 31 points on the board in the closing 15 minutes.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been downright dog crap in the fourth, with a QB rating of 48.4, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times while boasting just 159 total yards of offense – passing and rushing – in those 45 minutes.


New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Saints’ coaches vs. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Sean Payton and Rob Ryan may not agree on everything these days (see heated sideline exchange) but they can both agree on their disdain for the Dallas Cowboys – and owner Jerry Jones. While Payton and Jones remain on “good terms”, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator Ryan, who was unfairly fired from his job with the Cowboys two years ago.

The pair didn’t hold back when New Orleans blew away Jones’ Cowboys 49-17 as a 6-point favorite last November, improving Payton’s record to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against his former employer since leaving Big D for the Big Easy (wasn’t on sideline in 2012 due to suspension).

The Cowboys aren’t getting much help against the Saints – or any opponent for that matter – with rival jerseys littering the stands. Jones’ $1 billion AT&T Stadium has become a vacation destination for football fans, who gladly invade the Lone Star State to cheer on their squad. Some of the loudest cheers came from 49ers fans during Dallas’ Week 1 opener versus San Francisco.

Cowboys DT Henry Melton complained to the media this week about the lack of home-field advantage in Arlington, pleading with Dallas fans to “don’t just stay out in the parking lot, come on in.” Unless Melton is forking over $110.20 per head – the average ticket price for a non-premium seat – expect a sea of Black and Gold in Dallas Sunday night. Don't blame the fans. Blame Jerry. He's got to keep the lights on.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 4

September 26, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 4!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #263) Tampa Bay +7.5 – The spot, in and of itself, is a sharp spot to analyze. The Bucs are undervalued after getting blown away last week against Atlanta, while the Steelers are overplayed after killing Carolina last week. However, Tampa Bay is on a long week of prep after playing on Thursday, while Pittsburgh is on a short week after playing on Monday. Yes, the Buccaneers have to travel to Heinz Field, but this feels like a game that the black and gold could legitimately blow. The line has moved just a bit, but there is enough action on the other side of this one to keep the oddsmakers holding this number at 7.5, though some have put the number up at 9, which isn't all that much of a shift.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +7.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on Pittsburgh

(Rotation #252) Oakland +3.5 – It's not the sharpest play on the face of the earth, but the fact of the matter is that the betting public hates the Raiders for the most part. This is a 50/50 proposition in terms of who is betting the game, but the line is moving in the wrong direction if you like Miami. For what it's worth to us though, the Dolphins are a mess. They have annoyed QB Ryan Tannehill by not endorsing him as the starter any longer (though they aren't saying that he isn't the starter either), and the defensive players have been complaining about the game plan and in-game decisions made on that side of the ball. This is a recipe for a disaster for Head Coach Joe Philbin, and we wouldn't be stunned if he is fired when this one is over if the sharp bettors cash.

Opening Line: Oakland +5
Current Line: Oakland +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 50% on Miami

(Rotation #265) Jacksonville +13.5 – We know. We're tired of betting on Jacksonville and being wrong, too. The Jaguars are 0-3 SU and ATS, and outside of that first game of the season against Philly, they don't deserve to have covered any of those games either. However, QB Blake Bortles might end up being a bit of a savior, and the Chargers have a ton of problems at both the running back position and the linebacker position. We have a feeling that the running backs could be an issue, as the only back that is healthy that was on the roster at the start of the season, RB Donald Brown, is averaging just two yards per carry this year. It's a lot of points to be giving Jacksonville in this one.

Opening Line: Jacksonville +15.5
Current Line: Jacksonville -15.5
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on San Diego

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 Look-Ahead

September 25, 2014

Thanks to differing opinions about the importance of the NFL's preseason and our proclivity to let the first two weeks of the regular season pass without getting too high or low about results, the wait-and-see approach works for most in September.

Until Week 4.

Now that it's officially Fall and the next batch of games arrive in October, most will find it OK to lose their collective minds over what's gone down thus far. You'll hear the old cliché about how championships can't be won in September, but they can certainly be lost. Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen may be working to keep his job in London, since losing to the Dolphins and dropping to 0-4 may result in his dismissal. Six teams are already in the midst of their bye week. Taking it easy would seem like the last thing anyone would be talking about in NFL circles.

Still, Aaron Rodgers found it necessary to spell out a friendly service announcement for Packers fans to "r-e-l-a-x" on his weekly radio show appearance Tuesday, assuring listeners that an offense which isn't moving as fast as they intend will live up to expectations once everything comes together. He sounded like a hypnotherapist, channeling his Ben Stein voice and preaching patience. It's a nice sentiment, undoubtedly reassuring for Cheeseheads everywhere to hear the face of the franchise try and provide some reassurance, but the message will ring hollow if another loss is the result in Chicago.

And yet, if Rodgers hit Packer nation with a dose of "chillax" following a loss to the Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday, he'd be well within his rights. There would be hope, especially with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in play.

Last year's Philadelphia Eagles opened 1-3, losing 52-20 in Denver during Week 4. They recovered to win the NFC East, becoming the 24th team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to reach the postseason in spite of a losing record through the first four games. The 2001 Patriots overcame the slow start to win the first of three Super Bowls in a four-year span. 36 percent of 2-2 teams have reached the playoffs since '90, while the number for 1-3 squads slips dramatically to 15 percent.

Who knows if Rodgers is aware of all this? Undoubtedly, he'd prefer to escape the opening month at .500, but with seven games left at Lambeau Field over the remaining three months, there will certainly be opportunities to make up ground. New Orleans is in the same boat, left with seven scheduled Superdome dates following Sunday's visit to Dallas. Though rightfully favored to get to 2-2 against the surprising Cowboys, having those home games in their back pocket and Drew Brees slinging the rock guarantees they'll remain in contention so long as he remains healthy.

So, is there a true must-win situation to try and isolate in Week 4 for those of you who like to financially back a heightened sense of urgency?

By my count, there are a whopping nine situations where a team should feel more of a sense of desperation to make sure they walk off the field a winner than the ones facing the Packers and Saints. Although head coaches Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton may respectfully disagree, keep in mind that the 1992 San Diego Chargers remain the lone team to survive an 0-4 start and still reach the postseason, so digging out of that hole is practically impossible.

Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are expected to wind up 0-4 come Monday morning. Both will likely be starting a different quarterback than the one that has lined up under center the past three weeks, since Mike Glennon is expected to fill in for Josh McCown at Pittsburgh, though the veteran hasn't ruled himself out despite a thumb injury that should sideline him a couple of weeks. Rookie Blake Bortles gets the nod at San Diego, despite Jaguars coaches and management having been adamant that they intended to redshirt the first QB taken in this past June's draft behind veteran Chad Henne.

Franchise-wide panic hasn't set in because coaches Lovie Smith and Gus Bradley are firmly entrenched, but as far as this season is concerned, you can write these two off with a loss. Jacksonville has already declared its youth movement underway, but the Buccaneers expected to be part of the playoff hunt far longer than the first few weeks.

Oakland faces the potential obstacle of a winless first month out in London against Miami, another team that can't really afford another loss this early. While the Raiders are fighting for stability since Allen's future is in jeopardy, the Dolphins face an uncertain future at QB with Ryan Tannehill currently being snubbed by head coach Joe Philbin, who has refused to give his young signal-caller a vote of confidence. It's a peculiar development, painting Miami into a corner overseas since a loss means it will head into a bye week with backup Matt Moore probably being handed the reins amid two weeks of questions and no games to deflect attention from a potentially divisive situation.

Philbin is likely trying to motivate Tannehill into quicker decisions, but is taking a major gamble if things don't work out at Wembley Stadium. The possibility exists that Moore comes to Miami's rescue and creates a seamless transition, but it's already an upset that the Raiders seem to have a more stable situation at the game's most important position with rookie Derek Carr.

As unfair as it might be for second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater, he joins Bortles in also looking at a must-win in his first NFL start, but does so under far more dire circumstances. The drama of continuing a season in the wake of the Adrian Peterson scandal falls squarely on his shoulders now that Matt Cassel is done for the season. After an unbeaten preseason and an impressive Week 1 road rout of St. Louis, the bottom is on the verge of completely falling out if they fail to defeat Atlanta at home. The Vikings are forced to play at Green Bay next week, so there is no grace period for Bridgewater as he attempts to keep pace with a Matt Ryan-led offense.

Four other quarterbacks are in positions where they realistically can't afford a loss to be taken seriously as a playoff contender entering October. Barring injury, only one of them is realistically in danger of being replaced. Head coach Rex Ryan publicly went to bat for Jets starter Geno Smith following his error-filled effort on Monday night, hoping to squash Michael Vick rumors before they start swirling out of control.

Whether you want to place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg or the depleted receiving corps that has lacked a true No. 1, Smith has had more interceptions returned for TDs (6) since entering NFL than anyone in the league. His completion percentage while facing pressure is also the lowest among starters. He's turned the ball over on the brink of reaching the end zone in every game thus far. With Detroit in town and a cross-country trek to San Diego scheduled next week, this looms as a potential deal-breaker as far as his status as the franchise quarterback is concerned, especially if Ryan's future is tied to this season's results. Vick's mobility and veteran approach is going to look like a more appealing alternative with every errant Smith throw or turnover, so this Lions game is about as crucial as they come for any team in Week 4, blowing any pressure Green Bay or New Orleans face out of the water by comparison.

San Francisco and Indianapolis harbor Super Bowl aspirations, so they can't realistically afford to fall too far behind. The 49ers do benefit from seeing a number of defensive standouts return in the season's second half, but that won't help them this week against the NFL's most explosive offense. Nick Foles has thrown for 978 yards through the first three contests, which puts an emphasis on Colin Kaepernick and an offense that has been shut down by Chicago and Arizona in the second half of consecutive games, outscored 38-3. The Eagles have outscored opponents 74-24 thus far in 2014, so San Francisco will need to reverse a trend to end September in decent shape.

Andrew Luck's Colts are in far better shape with Tennessee coming tontown, especially since the Titans are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Indianapolis went 6-0 in AFC South games last season and look like the class of the division again, but with games against Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh scheduled for October, it's important to take care of business and avoid a 1-3 start.

The final team faced with a critical Week 4 contest hosts the Patriots on Monday night. Coming off an immense road win in Miami, Kansas City is forced to keep the underwhelming Patriots from finding a rhythm at Arrowhead. Not only are the Chiefs expecting to have Jamaal Charles back, they'll be watching their Alex Smith-Charles-Dwayne Bowe triumvirate take the field for the first time in 2014. So why is it a must-have for a team that won 11 games a year ago? Well, beyond all their defensive injuries, there's the fact that the Chiefs have challenging road games at San Francisco and San Diego surrounding a bye week on tap over the next three weeks. In other words, with Kansas City listed as a home underdog for only the second time in two seasons (Denver, Dec. 1), oddsmakers have the team pegged for 1-5 start.

Indeed, there are teams far worse than the Saints or Packers. Not that the Green Bay quarterback can afford to take his own advice as he look to keep his team from faltering at Chicago.

Relax? Don't do it. Rodgers would just have more ways out of a 1-3 hole than most.

[StarDust Bum]

Here is my Rated Plays on Thursday-Sunday-Monday Night Football

Thursday Night

09/04,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Seattle - 5.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Green Bay Under 46.5 Triple Play ( Loser ).........................36 - 16

09/11.........................Pittsburgh + 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )....................Baltimore Over 44.0 Double Play ( Loser )............................6 - 26

09/18.........................Atlanta - 6.5 Double Play ( Winner ).......................Tampa Bay Over 47.0 Double Play ( Winner ).......................56 - 14

09/24.........................N.Y. Giants + 3 ***** ( Winner )...........................N.Y. Over 45 ( Double Play ( Winner )................................45 - 19
.

*****..................1 - 0

Double Play...........4 - 2

Triple Play............0 - 1

Lights Out..........0 - 0

Side 3 - 1

Total 2 - 2

Rated Total..........5 - 3.............62.50%


Sunday Night

09/07...........................Indianapolis + 3.5 ***** ( Winner )...........................Denver Under 53 ***** ( Loser )...................24 - 31

09/14...........................Chicago + 7l.0 Double Play ( Winner ).........................San Fan Over 47.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........28 - 20

09/21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Pittsburgh + 3.0 Triple Play ( Winner ).........................Carolina Over 42.0 Triple Play ( Winner )..........37 - 19

*****,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 - 1

Double Play.........1 - 0

Triple Play...........3 - 0

Lights Out...........0 - 0

Sides.................3 - 0

Total.................2 - 1

Rated Plays........5 - 1............83.33 %



Monday Night

09/08..........................N.Y. Giants + 4.5 **** ( Loser )...........................Detroit Over 45 Double Play.................14 - 35

..........................Arizona - 2.5 Double Play ( Loser )........................San Diego Under 46.0 ***** ..............18 - 17

09.15..........................Philadelphia + 3.0 Double Play ( Winner ).................Indianapolis Under 53.5 *****.............30-27

09/22.........................??????????????????????? ????????????????

*****..............................1 - 2

Double Play........................2 - 1

Triple Play..........................0 - 0

Lights Out.........................0 - 0

Sides....................1 - 2

Total.....................2 - 1

Rated Totals.................3 - 3...................50.00%

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4

September 27, 2014

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 4 Consensus Picks (Number of Selections)

1) Green Bay -1.5 (530)
2) Kansas City +3.5 (485)
3) Atlanta -3 (440)
4) Philadelphia +5.5 (359)
5) New Orleans -3 (355)

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 4

September 27, 2014


Week 3 Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 9-7 in each of the first two weeks of the season, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 in Week 3 but those results were aided with some late scoring bursts. Bettors who had the ‘under’ in the Texans-Giants, Chiefs-Dolphins and Steelers-Panthers matchups all witnessed 30 or more points score in the second-half.

Of those three games that rallied to go ‘over’, the Kansas City-Miami outcome was the luckiest win as the Chiefs punched in a meaningless touchdown with 19 seconds left and head coach Andy Reid could’ve and probably should’ve taken a knee. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ holds a slight 25-23 edge (52%).

Streaks to Watch

The Browns, Colts and Eagles have all watched their first three games go ‘over’ the number.

Teams in action on Sunday that have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 are the Bills, Vikings and Titans.

Live from London

The NFL International Series continues this season with not one, not two but three games to be played at Wembley Stadium from London, England. Due to the travel and unfamiliarity with the venue, this game started out as a great ‘under’ wager but the pendulum has swung to the ‘over’ recently. The last three years, there have been combined points of 52, 61 and 52 points, all resulting in ‘over’ winners.

NFL International Series History (2007-2014)
Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders -
2014 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons -
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -


This Sunday, Miami and Oakland will collide and the total is listed at 41 points. There were rumors about a change at quarterback for Miami this week but Ryan Tannehill will remain the starter. Despite his struggles, the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 for the Fins this season which has been helped with the defense allowing an average of 27.6 PPG. It’s hard to imagine Oakland’s offense getting past that number this Sunday considering it’s scored 37 combined points in three games and 14 of those points came in garbage time.

Divisional Battles

Including the Giants-Redskins matchup on Thursday, we only have three divisional battles on tap this week, the last two slated for Sunday.

Green Bay at Chicago: Last week, the Packers played at Detroit and bettors were starting at a high total even though the ‘under’ was on a 5-0 from Ford Field. Sure enough, the game was a clear-cut ‘under’ winner. This week, the Packers head to Chicago and the total is hovering between 50 and 51 points. The last 10 meetings between these teams have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The ‘over’ has cashed in two of the last three head-to-head meetings but the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Side players should note that Indianapolis has won nine of 10 in this series and four straight since Andrew Luck took over QB duties for the Colts.

Total System

I’m not sure when this system will lose but until it does, I’ll keep bringing it to your attention. For those new to the weekly “Total Talk” column, this angle was sent to me via a passionate bettor and VegasInsider.com user (A86), which is always welcomed, and it’s been very profitable.

Including last week’s ‘over’ winner between Baltimore and Cleveland, the record now stands at 16-2-1 (88.8%) dating back to last season.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Personally, I thought this angle was going to lose last week and if it wasn’t for a late field goal in t, it would’ve. However, I could also argue that both the Browns and Ravens left points off the board and you didn’t need to sweat late in the game.

This week’s ‘over’ play is on the Atlanta-Minnesota matchup since the Falcons hosted the Buccaneers on Thursday in Week 3.

At first I thought the opening number (47) was too high but all of Atlanta’s totals have been in this neighborhood and we’ve already seen what the Falcons can do offensively when they’re clicking and it’s nice to have a weapon like Devin Hester on special teams.

I would be a little worried about the Vikings, who have watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 this season and the offense has only scored a combined 16 points the last two weeks. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater got some reps last week against the Saints and he has no pressure on him. It does hurt not to have Adrian Peterson in the backfield and the Vikings also lost tight end Kyle Rudolph (groin) last week. Still, Bridgewater can spin the ball and I hope the Vikings let him loose.

Lastly, Atlanta’s defense is far from great and it’s always been vulnerable on the road. The gave up 24 points to the Bengals in Week 2 on the road and Cincinnati left at least three scores off the board. Last season, the Falcons allowed an average of 29.7 PPG outside of the Georgia Dome.

Under the Lights

If you’ve been betting the ‘over’ in prime-time games this season, congratulations! After watching the Giants blast the Redskins 45-14 this past Thursday night, the ‘over’ now owns an 8-2 record in games played under the lights.

New Orleans at Dallas: This game opened at 52 ½ and has jumped to 53 ½ at most shops. The Saints have played two games on the road and have allowed 37 and 26 points, both ‘over’ winners. New Orleans wasn’t sharp offensively last week and only scored 20 points against Minnesota, which raises some eyebrows. If you are looking for a lean to the ‘under’ you could point to the Dallas running game. The Cowboys are ranked third in rushing yards per game and somebody on the sidelines is starting to realize that if QB Tony Romo doesn't throw the ball 30-plus times, Dallas has a better shot at winning. These teams are familiar with one another, meeting three of the last four seasons. The Saints have won all three games and the ‘over’ cashed in all three as well (49-17, 34-31, 30-27), two of the victories coming in Dallas.

New England at Kansas City: This is a tough total to handicap and I would lean ‘under’ but it’s rare to see New England’s offense look sluggish two weeks in a row. The Patriots went through the motions last week and barely beat the Raiders while the Chiefs dominated the Dolphins with their ground game. Kansas City still has a lot of holes on defense, which would lead you to believe that New England will exploit them. However, the Patriots try to be too cute at times, especially running the football. Both clubs have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 this season but no glaring trends stick out here as these teams haven’t meet since 2011.

Fearless Predictions

Three weeks in the books and the deficit is up to $240 and it could be worse. Even though we have less games in Week 4, I believe we can get into the black this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Minnesota 47
Best Under: Buffalo-Houston 42
Best Team Total: 49ers Over 27.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Atlanta-Minnesota
Over 41.5 Philadelphia-San Francisco
Under 54 Jacksonville-San Diego

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4

September 27, 2014

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a favorite versus any team with more wins.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 25, 2010 coming a win versus any team with fewer wins.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-12 ATS as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Jeremy Maclin is 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) in his career coming off a home game where he had at least six receptions.

NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- Florida Atlantic is 11-0-1 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 1, 2011 after a loss on the road.

NCAA PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Colorado is 0-15 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since September 24, 2005 as a road dog in non-Thursday games after a win.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-12 OU (-9.75 ppg) since Jan 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which are 1-2 after winning at least nine games last season are 35-55-2 ATS. Active against Indianapolis, San Francisco, New Orleans and Kansas City.

NCAA O/U TREND:

-- South Florida is 10-0 OU as a double digit dog, if the line in their last game was between -10 and 20 if applicable.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams are 135-98-8 ATS when this team won by more than three as an underdog the last time they faced this team and lost by more than four points as a favorite the second last meeting against this team. Active on USC.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 Tip Sheet

September 27, 2014

Packers (-2, 51) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

Week 3 Results:
-- The Packers have not looked sharp in two road losses to Seattle and Detroit. In last week’s 19-7 setback at Ford Field, Green Bay racked up just 223 yards of offense, while picking up just the third ‘under’ in their past 10 road contests.
-- The Bears put together another impressive effort on the highway, knocking off the Jets last Monday night, 27-19 as 1 ½-point underdogs. Chicago gained just 257 yards of offense, but returned an interception for a touchdown to improve to 4-6 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

Previous meeting: The road team won each matchup last season, including Aaron Rodgers completing a fourth down bomb to Randall Cobb to lift the Packers past the Bears at Soldier Field in the regular season finale, 33-28. Chicago benefited from Rodgers breaking his collarbone in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, as the Bears ripped the Packers as 10-point underdogs, 27-20.

What to watch for: The Packers have owned the Bears recently, winning eight of the past 10 meetings since 2009. Under Marc Trestman, the Bears have cashed the ‘over’ in six of nine games at Soldier Field, as their overtime opener against the Bills actually stayed ‘under’ the number. Since October 2012, the Packers have compiled an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS record in the last seven opportunities as a road favorite.

Panthers at Ravens (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 3 Results:
-- Carolina’s 2-0 start came to a screeching halt in front of a nationally televised audience in last Sunday night’s 37-19 home setback to Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. The Panthers allowed just 21 points in their first two victories, but were burned for 264 yards rushing by the Steelers, while suffering their first regular season setback since Week 1 of 2013.
-- The Ravens finished off a three-game set against division foes, beating the Browns at the gun, 23-21 to push as two-point road favorites. Baltimore won the final two games after losing the opener to Cincinnati, as the Ravens have turned the ball over just once in two victories.

Previous meeting: Baltimore rolled Carolina, 37-13 as 13-point road favorites in 2010 in the pre-Cam Newton era. The Panthers had won the previous three meetings dating back to 1996, as Carolina came out victorious in its only visit to Baltimore back in 2006, a 23-21 triumph as three-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Since 2012, the Panthers have been nearly automatic in the role of a road underdog, covering eight of their past nine tries. John Harbaugh has seen plenty of success at home against NFC opponents since getting hired in 2008, winning 11 of 12 interconference contests at M&T Bank Stadium with the lone loss coming last season to Green Bay.

Bills at Texans (-3, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 3 Results:
-- The Bills suffered their first loss of the season, putting up a flat effort in a 22-10 home defeat to the Chargers as short favorites. Buffalo’s defense has been pretty strong this season, but its offense racked up just 292 yards in its second ATS loss in its past nine tries at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
-- The Texans return home after getting routed by the suddenly-hot Giants, 30-17. Houston failed to cover for the first time in three games, while losing its first contest after victories against Washington and Oakland. The Texans need to sure up their rushing defense this week after allowing 193 yards on the ground to the Giants.

Previous meeting: Houston took care of Buffalo in an ugly 21-9 home victory in 2012 as 11-point favorites. In the loss, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 239 yards, but the Bills couldn’t get in the end zone as the former Harvard quarterback is now calling the signals for the Texans. These teams have split six matchups since Houston entered the league in 2002, as the road team has won four times.

What to watch for: The Bills were a dreadful team to back as a road underdog last season at 1-6 ATS, but Buffalo turned it around in the season opening overtime victory at Chicago as seven-point ‘dogs. Since December 2012, the Texans have been a miserable bet off a loss, posting a 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS record, which included last season’s 14 consecutive defeats.

Lions (-1 ½, 44 ½) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Week 3 Results:
-- The Lions are great, as long as they play at home. Detroit won its second game at Ford Field by double-digits, knocking off Green Bay as a short favorite, 19-7. In two home contests, the Lions have allowed a total of 21 points, while giving up 24 points in their Week 2 setback at Carolina.
-- The Jets are playing their third consecutive NFC North opponent after losing to the Packers and Bears the last two weeks. New York blew a 21-3 lead at Green Bay, but fell behind early last Monday against Chicago, while never being able to get over the hump in a 27-19 loss as 1 ½-point favorites.

Previous meeting: New York held off Detroit in overtime at Ford Field in 2010 as 5 ½-point favorites, 23-20. Santonio Holmes was caught from behind on a 52-yard reception in OT, as the wide receiver nearly gave Jets’ backers a fortunate cover if he had scored a touchdown. The Lions are making their first trip to Met Life Stadium, as Detroit dropped a 31-24 decision in its previous trip to East Rutherford back in 2006.

What to watch for: Detroit split six games in the role of a road favorite last season, while the Lions are 1-6 ATS since the start of 2013 off a SU victory. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have cashed in as a home underdog, posting a 7-4 ATS record, including outright victories last season over New Orleans and New England.

Eagles at 49ers (-5, 50) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 3 Results:
-- The Eagles have fallen behind in each of their first three games, but Philadelphia has managed to rally and win all three to start 3-0. Last week, Philadelphia outlasted Washington, 37-34 as four-point favorites, in spite of allowing over 500 yards to the Redskins. Chip Kelly’s team has trailed by double-digits in all three games, but have outscored opponents, 74-24 in the second half.
-- The 49ers have been the opposite of the Eagles from a second half standpoint, scoring a measly three points after halftime in three games. San Francisco was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes of last Sunday’s 23-14 defeat at Arizona as three-point favorites, dropping the Niners to 1-2 for the second straight season.

Previous meeting: San Francisco shocked Philadelphia as 9 ½-point road underdogs, 24-23 in 2011. Ironically, the Niners erased a 23-3 deficit in that contest, scoring three second half touchdowns to send the Eagles to 1-3 on the season. That victory by San Francisco snapped a five-game losing streak to Philadelphia dating back to 2005, which includes three wins at Candlestick Park.

What to watch for: The Niners have won seven of their past nine games off a loss, but have failed to cover in three of their previous four contests at home off a defeat. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road underdog under Kelly, while Philadelphia has compiled a solid 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS record away from Lincoln Financial Field since 2013.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Saints at Cowboys

September 27, 2014

After a horrific opener in Week 1, Dallas (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) returns home off of two impressive road wins to face the Saints at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

As of late Saturday afternoon, most books had New Orleans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Gamblers can take the Cowboys on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

Sean Payton's team started the season by losing a pair of heartbreakers at Atlanta and at Cleveland, allowing fourth-quarter leads to get away in both defeats. Back home at the Superdome last week, however, New Orleans got into the win column by besting Minnesota 20-9 as a 10-point home favorite.

Drew Brees completed 27-of-35 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks was his favorite target, and the Oregon St. product hauled in eight receptions for 74 yards. Marques Colston and Josh Hill had TD catches.

Dallas got mauled by San Francisco 28-17 to start the year, but it responded with a 26-10 win at Tennessee as a three-point underdog. DeMarcus Murray exploded for 167 rushing yards and one TD, while Tony Romo threw a TD pass and, most important, didn't throw an interception.

Dallas went into St. Louis last Sunday and quickly fell behind 21-0, with the Rams getting one score on a pick-six by cornerback Janoris Jenkins. But the Cowboys and Romo would settle down and trim the deficit to 21-10 at intermission.

Then early in the third quarter, Romo found a streaking Dez Bryant for a 68-yard scoring strike to make it a one-possession game. After both teams traded field goals, Dallas took the lead for the first time with 6:13 remaining on a 12-yard TD pass from Romo to Terrance Williams. Moments later, Bruce Irvin intercepted Austin Davis and returned it 25 yards for a score to put Dallas ahead 34-24.

St. Louis would answer with a touchdown and it got the ball back. However, another Dallas interception preserved the 34-31 victory as a 1.5-point 'chalk.' Romo connected on 18-of-23 throws for 217 yards and a pair of TD passes. Murray rushed for 100 yards and one TD.

Murray leads the NFL in rushing with 385 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Romo has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 674 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. We should note, however, that three of those picks came against the 49ers in the opener.

Brees has completed 70.9 percent of his throws for 863 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio.

New Orleans has dominated Dallas over the last decade, winning outright in eight of nine head-to-head meetings. In the last 10 encounters, the Saints are 8-2 ATS against the Cowboys. The 'over' has hit in three straight and four of the last five, including last year's 49-17 win by the Saints in New Orleans.

In the aforementioned blowout, New Orleans produced 40 first downs and 625 yards of total offense. Brees threw for 392 yards and four TDs without being intercepted. Meanwhile, Romo completed just 10-of-24 throws for 128 yards.

The 'under' is 2-1 for the Cowboys, 1-0 in their only home game. Going back to last year, the 'under' is on a 5-2-1 run Dallas's last nine contests.

The 'over' is 2-1 overall for the Saints, 2-0 in its road assignments.

On the injury front, Dallas has three defensive linemen and LB Rolando McClain listed as 'questionable.' As for the Saints, CB Patrick Robinson and TE Ben Watson are question marks.

NBC will have the broadcast at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 Look-Ahead

September 25, 2014

Thanks to differing opinions about the importance of the NFL's preseason and our proclivity to let the first two weeks of the regular season pass without getting too high or low about results, the wait-and-see approach works for most in September.

Until Week 4.

Now that it's officially Fall and the next batch of games arrive in October, most will find it OK to lose their collective minds over what's gone down thus far. You'll hear the old cliché about how championships can't be won in September, but they can certainly be lost. Oakland Raiders head coach Dennis Allen may be working to keep his job in London, since losing to the Dolphins and dropping to 0-4 may result in his dismissal. Six teams are already in the midst of their bye week. Taking it easy would seem like the last thing anyone would be talking about in NFL circles.

Still, Aaron Rodgers found it necessary to spell out a friendly service announcement for Packers fans to "r-e-l-a-x" on his weekly radio show appearance Tuesday, assuring listeners that an offense which isn't moving as fast as they intend will live up to expectations once everything comes together. He sounded like a hypnotherapist, channeling his Ben Stein voice and preaching patience. It's a nice sentiment, undoubtedly reassuring for Cheeseheads everywhere to hear the face of the franchise try and provide some reassurance, but the message will ring hollow if another loss is the result in Chicago.

And yet, if Rodgers hit Packer nation with a dose of "chillax" following a loss to the Bears at Soldier Field this Sunday, he'd be well within his rights. There would be hope, especially with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in play.

Last year's Philadelphia Eagles opened 1-3, losing 52-20 in Denver during Week 4. They recovered to win the NFC East, becoming the 24th team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to reach the postseason in spite of a losing record through the first four games. The 2001 Patriots overcame the slow start to win the first of three Super Bowls in a four-year span. 36 percent of 2-2 teams have reached the playoffs since '90, while the number for 1-3 squads slips dramatically to 15 percent.

Who knows if Rodgers is aware of all this? Undoubtedly, he'd prefer to escape the opening month at .500, but with seven games left at Lambeau Field over the remaining three months, there will certainly be opportunities to make up ground. New Orleans is in the same boat, left with seven scheduled Superdome dates following Sunday's visit to Dallas. Though rightfully favored to get to 2-2 against the surprising Cowboys, having those home games in their back pocket and Drew Brees slinging the rock guarantees they'll remain in contention so long as he remains healthy.

So, is there a true must-win situation to try and isolate in Week 4 for those of you who like to financially back a heightened sense of urgency?

By my count, there are a whopping nine situations where a team should feel more of a sense of desperation to make sure they walk off the field a winner than the ones facing the Packers and Saints. Although head coaches Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton may respectfully disagree, keep in mind that the 1992 San Diego Chargers remain the lone team to survive an 0-4 start and still reach the postseason, so digging out of that hole is practically impossible.

Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are expected to wind up 0-4 come Monday morning. Both will likely be starting a different quarterback than the one that has lined up under center the past three weeks, since Mike Glennon is expected to fill in for Josh McCown at Pittsburgh, though the veteran hasn't ruled himself out despite a thumb injury that should sideline him a couple of weeks. Rookie Blake Bortles gets the nod at San Diego, despite Jaguars coaches and management having been adamant that they intended to redshirt the first QB taken in this past June's draft behind veteran Chad Henne.

Franchise-wide panic hasn't set in because coaches Lovie Smith and Gus Bradley are firmly entrenched, but as far as this season is concerned, you can write these two off with a loss. Jacksonville has already declared its youth movement underway, but the Buccaneers expected to be part of the playoff hunt far longer than the first few weeks.

Oakland faces the potential obstacle of a winless first month out in London against Miami, another team that can't really afford another loss this early. While the Raiders are fighting for stability since Allen's future is in jeopardy, the Dolphins face an uncertain future at QB with Ryan Tannehill currently being snubbed by head coach Joe Philbin, who has refused to give his young signal-caller a vote of confidence. It's a peculiar development, painting Miami into a corner overseas since a loss means it will head into a bye week with backup Matt Moore probably being handed the reins amid two weeks of questions and no games to deflect attention from a potentially divisive situation.

Philbin is likely trying to motivate Tannehill into quicker decisions, but is taking a major gamble if things don't work out at Wembley Stadium. The possibility exists that Moore comes to Miami's rescue and creates a seamless transition, but it's already an upset that the Raiders seem to have a more stable situation at the game's most important position with rookie Derek Carr.

As unfair as it might be for second-rounder Teddy Bridgewater, he joins Bortles in also looking at a must-win in his first NFL start, but does so under far more dire circumstances. The drama of continuing a season in the wake of the Adrian Peterson scandal falls squarely on his shoulders now that Matt Cassel is done for the season. After an unbeaten preseason and an impressive Week 1 road rout of St. Louis, the bottom is on the verge of completely falling out if they fail to defeat Atlanta at home. The Vikings are forced to play at Green Bay next week, so there is no grace period for Bridgewater as he attempts to keep pace with a Matt Ryan-led offense.

Four other quarterbacks are in positions where they realistically can't afford a loss to be taken seriously as a playoff contender entering October. Barring injury, only one of them is realistically in danger of being replaced. Head coach Rex Ryan publicly went to bat for Jets starter Geno Smith following his error-filled effort on Monday night, hoping to squash Michael Vick rumors before they start swirling out of control.

Whether you want to place the majority of the blame on offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg or the depleted receiving corps that has lacked a true No. 1, Smith has had more interceptions returned for TDs (6) since entering NFL than anyone in the league. His completion percentage while facing pressure is also the lowest among starters. He's turned the ball over on the brink of reaching the end zone in every game thus far. With Detroit in town and a cross-country trek to San Diego scheduled next week, this looms as a potential deal-breaker as far as his status as the franchise quarterback is concerned, especially if Ryan's future is tied to this season's results. Vick's mobility and veteran approach is going to look like a more appealing alternative with every errant Smith throw or turnover, so this Lions game is about as crucial as they come for any team in Week 4, blowing any pressure Green Bay or New Orleans face out of the water by comparison.

San Francisco and Indianapolis harbor Super Bowl aspirations, so they can't realistically afford to fall too far behind. The 49ers do benefit from seeing a number of defensive standouts return in the season's second half, but that won't help them this week against the NFL's most explosive offense. Nick Foles has thrown for 978 yards through the first three contests, which puts an emphasis on Colin Kaepernick and an offense that has been shut down by Chicago and Arizona in the second half of consecutive games, outscored 38-3. The Eagles have outscored opponents 74-24 thus far in 2014, so San Francisco will need to reverse a trend to end September in decent shape.

Andrew Luck's Colts are in far better shape with Tennessee coming tontown, especially since the Titans are on the road for the third time in four weeks. Indianapolis went 6-0 in AFC South games last season and look like the class of the division again, but with games against Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh scheduled for October, it's important to take care of business and avoid a 1-3 start.

The final team faced with a critical Week 4 contest hosts the Patriots on Monday night. Coming off an immense road win in Miami, Kansas City is forced to keep the underwhelming Patriots from finding a rhythm at Arrowhead. Not only are the Chiefs expecting to have Jamaal Charles back, they'll be watching their Alex Smith-Charles-Dwayne Bowe triumvirate take the field for the first time in 2014. So why is it a must-have for a team that won 11 games a year ago? Well, beyond all their defensive injuries, there's the fact that the Chiefs have challenging road games at San Francisco and San Diego surrounding a bye week on tap over the next three weeks. In other words, with Kansas City listed as a home underdog for only the second time in two seasons (Denver, Dec. 1), oddsmakers have the team pegged for 1-5 start.

Indeed, there are teams far worse than the Saints or Packers. Not that the Green Bay quarterback can afford to take his own advice as he look to keep his team from faltering at Chicago.

Relax? Don't do it. Rodgers would just have more ways out of a 1-3 hole than most.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY'S NFL TREND

Miami at Oakland, 1:00 ET
Miami: 36-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Oakland: 16-36 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games

Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 101-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Chicago: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game

Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home
Houston: 0-6 ATS off a road loss

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Indianapolis: 41-23 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games

Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
Baltimore: 18-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

Detroit at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 6-17 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
NY Jets: 3-13 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 22-9 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Pittsburgh: 46-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Jacksonville at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 5-13 ATS as an underdog
San Diego: 59-39 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 157-123 ATS against conference opponents
San Francisco: 18-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite

Atlanta at Minnesota, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 18-38 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Minnesota: 36-17 OVER after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game

New Orleans at Dallas, 8:30 ET
New Orleans: 16-6 OVER as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Dallas: 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season