The Bum's Major League Baseball Best Bets-News,Trends For July !

[StarDust Bum]

Braves midseason report: Inconsistency plagues team

The Atlanta Braves have demonstrated the ability to contend for a second straight Eastern Division championship. But the team's maddening inconsistency on offense has left fans frustrated and confused.

The Braves have stretches where they simply can't score runs, either by manufacturing them or playing long ball. First baseman Freddie Freeman, left fielder Justin Upton and catcher Evan Gattis have been steady. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons and third baseman Chris Johnson have been streaky at the plate.

Right fielder Jason Heyward and center fielder B.J. Upton have been disappointments, although Upton's average has climbed to a season-high .218 since being moved to the leadoff spot three weeks ago.

The second-base job was taken from veteran Dan Uggla by rookie Tommy La Stella. Uggla (.162) was given multiple chances to keep his job and the Braves tried Ramiro Pena and Tyler Pastornicky before giving La Stella a chance. La Stella has been adept at hitting to all fields and avoiding the strikeout; he's batting .282.

The offensive inconsistency has put great pressure on the starting rotation, which began the season without Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, two starters who are out for the season with Tommy John surgery.

The starting rotation has been led by right-hander Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.71), who has established himself as the staff ace in his second season and earned a spot on the All-Star team. Free agent Ervin Santana (7-6, 4.01) was hot the first month, but has since been hit-or-miss. The surprise is veteran right-hander Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.53), who was added in the final days of spring training after he was released by the Indians.

The bullpen has been excellent. Craig Kimbrel (29 saves) continues to be among the elite closers in the game. The only hiccup has been lefty setup man Luis Avilan, who has taken a step back after an impressive rookie season. Avilan's ERA is 4.85 and opponents are batting .287 against him.

The Braves and rival Washington Nationals are lined up to go head-to-head for the division title in the second half. Each has had their time in first place during the first half, but neither was able to shake the other. The two clubs still play each other nine times, six of those in Atlanta.

Atlanta's schedule becomes much more difficult starting in late July, which could determine the Braves' fate. There are seven games with the Dodgers, three with Washington, three with Oakland, three with Pittsburgh and four with Cincinnati.

[StarDust Bum]

Marlins midseason report: Trade targets pondered

On June 10, the Miami Marlins were 34-30 and just a half-game out of first place in the National League East.

After getting swept by the New York Mets on July 13 in an ugly 9-1 loss, the Marlins are 44-50. With the loss, the Marlins fell from third to fourth place in the National League East, behind the Mets, and head into the All-Star break on a four-game losing streak.

The Marlins are now 7 1/2 games out of first place.

Michael Hill, the Marlins' President of Baseball Operations, said that he and his staff are looking to make trades that will get his team back into the playoff race.

But not just any deal will do, Hill said.

"A rental really doesn't help," Hill said.

Translation: The Marlins are looking to deal only if the player they get would be under their control for more than just the rest of this season.

Potential targets are starting pitchers and a second baseman, especially one with speed who could bat leadoff.

Regardless of this recent slump and any possible trades, the Marlins have been competitive this season, especially compared to last year's 100-loss disaster.

They are 21-16 in one-run games, placing them second in the majors in the total number of such efforts.

"I'm happy with our effort," Marlins manager Mike Redmond said. "We are a resilient group. We've taken a bunch of tough losses, especially on this road trip.

"We're a much better team than last year, but we have a lot of young guys. Sometimes, we lose sight of that."

So, what can we expect in the second half?

Anything is possible, of course, but it is hard to imagine the Marlins making the playoffs this year.

Realistic Marlins fans are hoping for a season that finishes at or near .500.

More important would be continued individual improvements of certain young, core players such as right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, center fielder Marcell Ozuna, left fielder Christian Yelich, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and pitchers Henderson Alvarez, Nate Eovaldi and Tom Koehler.

[StarDust Bum]

Cubs midseason report: 'Better days lie ahead'

CHICAGO -- The Cubs are playing a waiting game.

On the field, they look for eventual payoff from a now well-stocked farm system and subsequent positive impact on the parent club.

Off the field, there's a $575 million renovation looming that would bring new clubhouses, training facilities and infrastructure at 100-year-old Wrigley Field up to 21st century standards. The project, which awaits expected final city approval, could start within weeks and pick up speed up in the offseason.

A renovated Wrigley Field will feature a series of video boards and advertising signage to produce new revenue to entice more high-priced talent.

The convergence could come as soon as 2016. In the meantime, the Cubs have a difficult -- but not bleak -- second half as the National League Central title chase continues without them.

The Cubs, 40-54 and 12 games out of first at the break, realistically face another season with 90-plus losses, the third in the executive regime of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer.

But Epstein was quoted as saying he now sees light at the end of the tunnel and that better days lie ahead.

Cubs manager Rick Renteria, who has instilled a positive atmosphere in the clubhouse despite first-half struggles, said he saw the potential down the line even before he took the job.

But the final 11 weeks of the season may mirror the first part as the Cubs proceed without two ace pitchers (Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel -- both traded to Oakland). And despite Epstein's pledge of a pause, there's still the possibility of more trades to come as the July 31 deadline approaches.

Some help may arrive from the minors, but not all top prospects will be called up in September. Officials said third baseman Kris Bryant is staying put at Triple-A Iowa for the rest of the season. Others like versatile infielder/outfielder Arismendy Alcantara had a pre-All Star Game sampling in Chicago and hit .391 (9-for-23) in five starts.

[StarDust Bum]

Reds midseason report: Team overcoming injuries

CINCINNATI -- The Cincinnati Reds are in the thick of the National League Central race, which is where they expected to be at this point in the season when spring training began. But the Reds' path to contention has been littered with landmines.

Bryan Price's debut season as Reds manager began with eight players on the disabled list, and that total has since ballooned to 13 players with a combined 16 stints on the DL. The Reds will begin the proverbial second half of the season without second baseman Brandon Phillips (thumb) and first baseman Joey Votto (quad).

"Doesn't surprise me that we're in the hunt," said veteran utility man Skip Schumaker. "We like our team. Our manager's been great about putting guys in the right spot. Guys are going to get hurt, it's part of the game."

The rash of injuries has tested Price's theme in spring training, which was to play more selfless and be willing to sacrifice personal stats for the betterment of the team. The club has executed well in that philosophy. Case in point -- right fielder Jay Bruce's willingness to pick up a first baseman's glove and fill in for Votto.

"That was a theme coming into spring training, and I think some of the players would've admitted that it was one of our Achilles' heels in recent year, playing a bit selfishly," said Price. "The injuries are brutal. That being said, it's created a sense of unity with this team. That's served us well, collectively."

Cincinnati (51-44) headed into the All-Star break having won 16 of 23 games to get within 1.5 games of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the Central. Climbing back from being a season-low 8.5 games out of first on June 20 required contributions from nearly everyone on the roster.

There have been some pleasant surprises as well. Everyone expected center fielder Billy Hamilton to burn up the base paths, which he's done, leading all NL rookies in stolen bases. But few thought Hamilton also would bat .283 with five homers, 38 RBIs and a .419 slugging percentage through 89 games. He's also adapted so seamlessly to playing center field every day.

One of the club's most significant injuries coming out of spring training was that of right hander Mat Latos, who had offseason elbow and knee surgeries and didn't return until mid-June. Taking Latos' spot in the rotation was middle-relief specialist Alfredo Simon, who responded with an All-Star caliber season, going 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 18 starts and a career-high 116 2/3 innings.

Catcher Devin Mesoraco overcame a pair of stints on the disabled list to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team. Mesoraco's 16 homers are the most for a Reds catcher since David Ross had 17 in 2007. Mesoraco tied a club record by homering in five straight appearances in June.

Fortunately for Cincinnati, right hander Johnny Cueto isn't among those injured. After having three separate stints on the DL last season, Cueto has been healthy and largely dominant, going 10-6 with a 2.13 ERA in 20 starts with 141 strikeouts and 35 walks in 143 2/3 innings to earn an All-Star nod.

Closer Aroldis Chapman provided the feel-good story of the season, recovering from being struck in the forehead by a line drive in spring training and recording 21 saves since May 10 while striking out at least one batter in 40 straight appearances, a major league record for relievers.

Cincinnati's strengths are pitching and defense, which has carried them through some rough periods the first three months. Reds starters rank second in the National League with a 3.30 ERA. Their .989 fielding percentage and 39 errors are the best in baseball, and something the club will rely on in the second half.

The Reds have held serve amid all the injuries and the clubhouse remains confident in this team's potential to reach the postseason for a fourth straight year.

"We've got some big guns down, but I think we're in a good place team-wise," said third baseman Todd Frazier, a first-time NL All-Star after hitting 19 homers with 53 RBIs in 94 games. "We understand our situation. I think it brings us a little closer. That's the kind of team we have."

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Best wishes to Iowa State hoop coach Fred Hoiberg, who had the battery in his pacemaker replaced Tuesday.

-- Dwyane Wade re-signs with the Heat: two years, roughly $37M. Not too bad.

-- Mike Shanahan turned down an offer from FOX to analyze NFL games; its too bad, we need more ex-coaches on TV.

-- Ricky Rubio wants a 5-year max contract from the Timberwolves; his shooting percentage for his career? 38% on 2-pointers, 32.3% on 3's. No thanks.

-- Michigan-Oklahoma agreed to home/home football series in 2025-26; I'm hoping to still be alive to watch those games on TV.

-- Former Wisconsin coach, NBA executive Stu Jackson has been hired by Big East as a senior associate commissioner. He will oversee men's basketball operations and strategic planning. Buzz Williams' bolting Marquette for Virginia Tech is a sign the league has some problems.


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Questions, questions, always questions..........

13) If you had the first pick in an NFL Fantasy (non-keeper) League, who would you take?

12) Is Adrian Peterson more valuable to the Vikings, now that they’ll be playing home games outdoors for the next two years? Those late season home games are going to be frigid.

11) Are the Green Bay Packers going to a no-huddle offense? They say their goal is 75 plays a game, which is an awful lot for an NFL team—no way they could get to 75 a game if they huddle.

10) Will DirecTV carry the SEC Network, which starts August 14? Will they ever carry the Pac-12 Network, which started last year?

9) Phil Mickelson said he drank a $40,000 bottle of wine out of the Claret Jug; there is a bottle of wine that costs $40,000??? Must be some damn fine grapes.

8) I’ll ask this question again; if the 750 major league players on Opening Day rosters voted, with no union pressure, would the DH stay or go?

7) Is it me, or would Jim Nantz be the greatest mortician ever? “Hello friends, so sorry for your loss.” He would be tremendous.

6) Do high school basketball players have any idea how difficult is to make an NBA roster? This NBA Summer League in Las Vegas is a graphic example of that; guys who were great college players fighting like hell just to catch on at the end of a roster, or make a big check over in Europe. It’s a highly competitive business at the highest level.

5) What was new Cavalier coach David Blatt’s heart rate when he heard Lebron James signed with the Cavaliers? He was advised to go to Golden State and be Steve Kerr’s assistant; instead he is the head coach of the #2 favorite to win the NBA title. No pressure there.

4) When will mainstream media admit that baseball’s replay system, while not perfect, has been better than most everyone thought it would be? They’ve corrected an awful lot of calls, about 50% of those challenged.

3) What genius thought having a 25-foot wall in rightfield at Target Field was a good idea when the Twins' two best hitters at the time batted lefty?

2) What exactly did Jimmy Haslem’s truck stop company do to get fined $92M by the government? $92M is a whole lot of money, even for rich people.

1) Does anyone realize yet how big this college football playoff thing is going to be? I don’t think so, but come Halloween or so, jockeying for position to get into the playoffs is going to be intense and will increase interest in college football.

[StarDust Bum]

World Series Predictions

July 14, 2014

The 2014 World Series won’t begin until this October but bettors can start investing in this year’s matchup. Sportsbook.ag, a major offshore outfit, has posted odds on which teams will meet in the “Fall Classic.” Rather than guess on the upcoming AL-NL matchup, we reached out to our top two pro baseball experts on VegasInsider.com, Antony Dinero (+7,950) and Bruce Marshall (+2,764).

To no surprise, the duo are both leaning in the same direction and in this case, it’s the West Coast.

Dinero is a big believer in Don Mattingly and the Dodgers. He explained, “The National League doesn't look very challenging. Entering the final day of action prior to the All-Star break, the possibility existed that the Brewers-Cardinals winner would be the lone team 10 games over .500 if the Dodgers lost to San Diego on Sunday. Put simply, mediocrity reigns in the NL.”

“For futures purposes, the Dodgers are my clear favorite in the NL. They have the best pitcher in the game leading a capable, veteran rotation. They have a potent lineup complete with an emerging leadoff hitter in All-star Dee Gordon, affording them versatility in how they score runs outside of the long ball. If there is a weakness, L.A. must find a way to gain stability in a bullpen that already has a dependable closer in Kenley Jansen, who is 26-for-29 in save opportunities. Health permitting, the Dodgers are head and shoulders ahead of the rest.”

“Taking into account that Don Mattingly's team did its best work in the season's second half last year, the call here is to back L.A. ahead of Atlanta, St. Louis, San Francisco and the other contenders.”

Dinero believes that the American League is a three-horse race between Oakland, the L.A. Angels of Anaheim and Detroit and he believes one of those teams will meet the Dodgers in October.

His World Series predictions and analysis listed below:

Best Bet: L.A. Dodgers vs. Oakland (7/1): Adding Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the rotation was a brilliant, necessary move for a team that definitely has the offensive firepower to make noise in October.

Great Bet: L.A. Dodgers vs. Detroit (9/1): Miguel Cabrera has a ton of help, so if Justin Verlander can figure things out to strengthen a rotation featuring Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello, the Tigers are going to be a tough out.

Good bet, no subways: L.A. Dodgers vs. L.A. Angels (20/1): It's up to Jared Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson to be dependable enough to support an imposing lineup, but there are question marks in the bullpen, too.

Sleeper pick: If not the Dodgers, who? St. Louis is waking up. Michael Wacha should get healthy. Rookie Oscar Taveras might figure it out and become a catalyst for the defending NL Champs. Go on down the list with the Cards against the A's (18/1), Tigers (23/1) or Angels (55/1).

Bruce Marshall is a big believer in Los Angeles too, except he’s all-in on the Angels.

He explained, “For this particular prop at Sportsbook.ag, there are three WS prices I think are awfully enticing. They all involve the Angels, who look to have the goods to make a serious run. Strong up the middle (Aybar and Kendrick a real plus defensively), and with plenty of offense featuring an emerging superstar in Trout, Pujols healthy and contributing, plus Scioscia pushing the right buttons, and the Angels check plenty of boxes. The emergence of Garrett Richards also gives the Halos a pretty good 1-2-3 in the rotation (with Weaver and Wilson) for the playoffs, too. The question remains in the bullpen (not sure I trust Joe Smith as the closer) , though I would expect Jerry DiPoto to make one more move beyond the recent addition of Jason Grilli. The bullpen question obviously applies to the Tigers too. A guy to watch who could be on the move before the deadline is Padre closer Huston Street; teams like the Halos and Tigers would be desperate to sign him.”

Marshall’s top WS predictions are listed below:

Angels-Dodgers at 20/1...This is a nice price for what might be the two best teams in MLB. Is it the year of the Freeway Series? Best chance since 2004, or maybe 1982. The Dodgers have the pitching and an automatic win every time Kershaw goes to the mound, although the offense does go in funks for long stretches (too many selfish hitters), and upon inspection the team is barely above .500 when Kershaw doesn't start. The Blue is also barely above .500 at home, which has got to turn around in the second half of the season and I believe does not bode well for the Giants in the NL West. Also plenty of stiffs in the West for the Dodgers to beat up the next 2 ½ months, so their path to the playoffs looks a bit more clear to me than for other NL teams. Kershaw-Greinke-Ryu-Beckett (if healthy) is a tough rotation to top in a short series.

Reds-Angels at 120/1...After a slow start, Cincinnati has picked up lots of momentum. The Reds have playoff experience, decent depth in the rotation with a dominator in Cueto, and a lights-out closer in Chapman. What I like most about the Reds is their ability to generate runs without having to rely on the long ball (by me, this puts them ahead of the Dodgers), although the offense has some power, especially if Votto can get healthy. Billy Hamilton is also impacting games more and more and will be a player to watch in the second half of the season. The Reds have inhaled ground on the Brewers the past few weeks and will blow by them by the time we get to August. It is going to be a horse race in the Central, but I sense the Cards have a few more flaws than their recent editions, and Cincy can be awfully tough in the playoffs with a guy like Cueto, who can outpitch anyone (even Kershaw).

Pirates-Angels at 160/1...Since I believe the Bucs almost have as good of a chance as anybody in the NL, this price is too good not to take a shot. Pittsburgh is another team that might want to look for bullpen help (15 blown saves already), and just cutting down a couple of those blown saves puts the Pirates on top in the Central. Ray Searage continues to make lemonade out of lemons with the rotation that has hung tough despite injuries, McCutchen is the most-dynamic player in the NL, Harrison is an unquestioned spark plug, and Polanco has added an exciting new dimension to the lineup. There is enough offense to get it done in Pittsburgh, though I believe they might want to take a hard look at Pedro Alvarez at 3B and even consider dealing him out at the break, he often hurts the team. Importantly, the Pirates might have put their old demons to the sword against the Dodgers after winning 3 of 4 in an earlier series; LA has absolutely owned the Bucs for the last decade, and just in case that is a playoff matchup, Pittsburgh now has some confidence against the Blue. In a toss-up NL, I almost think the Bucs have as good of a chance as anybody, and this price fora potential series with the Halos is way too good to bypass, at least in relation to other possible matchups.

Marshall does believe that you should keep checking this prop, especially since Sportsbook.ag will update odds and make more teams available.

He said, “One team not listed on any prices, unless wanting to bet the field at an unappealing 10/1, is Tampa Bay. At this stage, I am not writing the Rays out of the AL East race, because I have no faith in the top contenders, and believe 85 or 86 wins could steal the division. Tampa Bay has played much better in recent weeks, and if it can get to .500 by the middle of August, it will have a puncher's chance. The Rays have roared down the stretch before, although we will have to see what they do about David Price. Not sure they deal him, and if they did, it would make the playoff climb a bit harder. But I still won't write them off. Toronto has been losing altitude fast, the Bosox don't have it this season, and not sure the Yankees do, either. That leaves Baltimore as the team to beat, but as usual, Buck Showalter is working that staff to death, and the O's have gotten quality starts from their staff less than 40% of the time this season, a worrying omen. If the Birds make the playoffs I would not fear them because they don't have the front-line pitchers like the other contenders to survive for long in the postseason. They could, however, steal the East with as few as 85 wins.

All of the odds from Sportsbook.ag are listed below:

Possible 2014 World Series Matchups Odds

Braves vs. Athletics 21/1
Braves vs. Blue Jays 140/1
Braves vs. Indians 200/1
Braves vs. Mariners 100/1
Braves vs. Orioles 70/1
Braves vs. Red Sox 200/1
Braves vs. Royals 160/1
Braves vs. Tigers 25/1
Braves vs. Yankees 100/1

Brewers vs. Angels 45/1
Brewers vs. Athletics 15/1
Brewers vs. Blue Jays 100/1
Brewers vs. Indians 150/1
Brewers vs. Mariners 75/1
Brewers vs. Orioles 50/1
Brewers vs. Red Sox 180/1
Brewers vs. Royals 120/1
Brewers vs. Tigers 20/1
Brewers vs. Yankees 75/1

Cardinals vs. Angels 55/1
Cardinals vs. Athletics 18/1
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays 120/1
Cardinals vs. Indians 180/1
Cardinals vs. Mariners 90/1
Cardinals vs. Orioles 60/1
Cardinals vs. Red Sox 200/1
Cardinals vs. Royals 140/1
Cardinals vs. Tigers 23/1
Cardinals vs. Yankees 90/1

Dodgers vs. Angels 20/1
Dodgers vs. Athletics 7/1
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays 50/1
Dodgers vs. Indians 75/1
Dodgers vs. Mariners 35/1
Dodgers vs. Orioles 25/1
Dodgers vs. Red Sox 90/1
Dodgers vs. Royals 60/1
Dodgers vs. Tigers 9/1
Dodgers vs. Yankees 35/1

Giants vs. Angels 60/1
Giants vs. Athletics 21/1
Giants vs. Blue Jays 140/1
Giants vs. Indians 200/1
Giants vs. Mariners 100/1
Giants vs. Orioles 70/1
Giants vs. Red Sox 200/1
Giants vs. Royals 160/1
Giants vs. Tigers 25/1
Giants vs. Yankees 100/1

Nationals vs. Angels 35/1
Nationals vs. Athletics 11/1
Nationals vs. Blue Jays 80/1
Nationals vs. Indians 110/1
Nationals vs. Mariners 55/1
Nationals vs. Orioles 35/1
Nationals vs. Red Sox 130/1
Nationals vs. Royals 90/1
Nationals vs. Tigers 14/1
Nationals vs. Yankees 55/1

Pirates vs. Angels 160/1
Pirates vs. Athletics 55/1
Pirates vs. Blue Jays 350/1
Pirates vs. Indians 500/1
Pirates vs. Mariners 250/1
Pirates vs. Orioles 180/1
Pirates vs. Red Sox 600/1
Pirates vs. Royals 400/1
Pirates vs. Tigers 70/1
Pirates vs. Yankees 250/1

Reds vs. Angels 120/1
Reds vs. Athletics 40/1
Reds vs. Blue Jays 250/1
Reds vs. Indians 400/1
Reds vs. Mariners 200/1
Reds vs. Orioles 140/1
Reds vs. Red Sox 450/1
Reds vs. Royals 300/1
Reds vs. Tigers 55/1
Reds vs. Yankees 200/1

Field (Any Other Matchup) 10/1

[StarDust Bum]

Padres midseason report: Offensive woes

SAN DIEGO -- Clearly, the Padres are out of the playoff race that they believed they would be a part of when the season opened.

And it's not hard to pinpoint the reason. The Padres offense is pathetic. Actually, it's almost non-existent.

Given even a below-average offense, the Padres might be close to .500 given the performance of their pitching. But the Padres offense is so bad that it could get everyone fired by the end of the season.

General manager Josh Byrnes has already been fired. And the next general manager -- the Padres have already interviewed eight candidates -- might decide to clean house as he takes the Padres in a direction that might include an offense.

The Padres finished the 2013 season with a team batting average of .245 while averaging 3.8 runs a game. The Padres reached the All-Star break hitting a collective .214 and averaging 2.9 runs a game.

Yet they have the same 41-54 record that they had after 95 games last season.

Which makes you wonder where they might be if the Padres had hit anywhere close to their 2013 averages.

"We are not where we expected to be," Padres CEO Mike Dee said while announcing the decision to relieve Byrnes as general manager in June. "We have to take an overall look at where we are and what we need to do to get to where we want to be."

Dee said he is looking for a general manager who will direct the Padres for a number of seasons.

"The next general manager of the Padres will be on the same page as the ownership," said Dee.

Thus far, the Padres have interviewed Kim Ng (senior vice president of baseball operations for Major League Baseball), former Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest, Dodgers scouting director Logan White, Diamondbacks scouting director Ray Montgomery, Yankees assistant general manager Bill Epler, Red Sox assistant general manager Mike Hazen and Padres assistant general manager Josh Stein and Texas Rangers assistant general manager A.J. Preller.

But the Padres don't expect to have their next general manager in place by the trading deadline, which raises the question of how active the Padres will be at the deadline. Until the new general manager is on board, the Padres are being run by assistant general managers A.J. Hinch, Stein and Fred Uhlmann Jr.

The Padres have a history of finishing strong under manager Bud Black.

However, given the amount of uncertainty in the organization at the moment combined with what may -- or may not -- happen at the trading deadline, it's hard to expect the Padres to finish as strong as they have in the past.

[StarDust Bum]

Dodgers midseason report: Dominant rotation

The Dodgers reached the All-Star break with the best record in the National League (54-43).

A $250 million payroll is supposed to produce those kind of results, but the Dodgers needed some help to get to the top of the National League West standings. The San Francisco Giants lent them a hand by losing 15 of 20 games in a stretch in June.

The Dodgers will have a tougher road in the second half. Their first 12 games after the break and 26 of their first 29 will be against teams with winning records (including two three-game series against the Giants).

"I think everybody in here is confident in the team's ability," Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw said. "When we were struggling early, I think everybody knew in the back of our minds that we could turn it around. Coming back and tying up the Giants in a month is not something we expected just like we didn't expect to go 42-8 last year. But we have that ability."

The best of that ability is in a starting rotation led by Kershaw and Zack Greinke. In the final 32 games before the All-Star break, Dodgers starting pitchers had a 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, holding opposing teams to one run or none in 17 of those 32 starts.

The Dodgers will only go as far as that rotation takes them in the second half.

"For the most part," Dodgers manager Don Mattingly agreed. "We're capable of scoring runs and doing other things to win games. You can't just think you're going to get shutouts every day. We're going to have to put some runs on the board. I think we've shown we're capable of that.

"You have to win in all different ways. But I think we're built with pitching and we're still looking at that."

The Dodgers lineup is certainly studded with enough All-Star names to make one think they should be a force offensively. But players like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez are not what they once were. Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon were the heartbeat of the team in the first half and must continue their All-Star level play in the second half.

[StarDust Bum]

Giants midseason report: Optimism abounds despite slump

San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy calls his team lucky.

That is the only way he can explain how a club that lost 22 of its past 32 games somehow managed to remain one game out of the National League West lead at the All-Star break.

"We're not playing good baseball," Bochy admitted on the eve of the much-needed, four-day break. "We're know we're capable. We need to turn this around and get back headed in the right direction."

The Giants believe they have the tools with which to do so, and they should know. Not only did they win two World Series titles in the past four years, but they looked at times like the best team in baseball again in the first 10 weeks of this season, running out to a 42-21 record and leading the division by as much as 9 1/2 games.

It is possible the Giants will be 100 percent healthy to start the second half July 18 in Miami, and that is something they weren't able to say during their early run. Sparkplug second baseman Marco Scutaro didn't return from the disabled list until two days before the break.

Most important, they might get back arguably their most valuable player, center fielder Angel Pagan, for the start of the final 10 1/2-week run to the playoffs. Pagan hasn't played since June 14 because of a bulging disk in his back.

Pagan's back started to hurt during a 5-4 win over the New York Mets on June 7. He did not play the next day, then struggled through six games before being told to take some time off.

Nobody could have predicted at the time he still would be on the sideline a month later, and that the Giants would go 10-22 after that win over the Mets.

A healthy Scutaro. The hopes of a rejuvenated Pagan. The recent return of Tim Lincecum to his Cy Young Award form, and two wild-card spots to fall back upon in case the Los Angeles Dodgers successfully buy themselves a second consecutive division title.

The Giants certainly are optimistic. And why not? They should be well-rested. After all, they basically started their All-Star break about a month earlier than everyone else.

[StarDust Bum]

D-backs midseason report: More trades are coming

PHOENIX -- For the first time since general manager Kevin Towers took over in late 2010, the Arizona Diamondbacks will be sellers at the trade deadline. With a capital "S."

Injuries to key players and ineffectiveness by others leave the D-backs with little to shoot for except retooling and avoiding the stigma of finishing with the worst record in the majors.

The D-backs hired Hall of Famer Tony La Russa to the newly created position of chief baseball officer in May, and he is spending much of his time familiarizing himself with the organization and talking baseball with Towers and manager Kirk Gibson. All agree changes are forthcoming, in part to whittle salary from a built-to-win-now, franchise-record $112 million payroll for 2014.

"If I can't bring a couple of tweaks to this thing, then they made a bad decision bringing me on. But I think there are some tweaks," La Russa told FOXSportsArizona.com in late June.

La Russa, Towers and Gibson met with scouts to evaluate the roster in advance of the July 31 trade deadline with an toward the future, and the D-backs already made two moves, sending free-agents-to-be Joe Thatcher to the Los Angeles Angels and Brandon McCarthy to the New York Yankees.

Those were the easy deals. Money will play a part in any others. Infielders Aaron Hill and Martin Prado and outfielder Gerardo Parra are proven commodities, and because of gluts in the middle infield and outfield, they could be available. Their salaries make any trade more problematic, however. Hill is owed $24 million in 2015-16, and Prado is owed $22 million over the same period. Parra has one more year of arbitration eligibility (at perhaps $6.5 million) before entering free agency.

The D-backs have young, controllable middle infielders in Chris Owings, Didi Gregorius and Nick Ahmed, and the farm system is stocked at third base. After early injuries to outfielders Mark Trumbo and A.J. Pollock, the D-backs got long looks at rookies David Peralta and Ender Inciarte, and they like what they saw.

In potential deals, major-league-ready prospects are the target.

"If you are looking at need, it is probably starting pitching and the outfield," Towers told FOXSportsArizona.com. "You want the best players, but if you have to wait a year or a year and a half for a better player, you do. You move toward getting the best player available."

The 2014 season started on a sour note and never improved. No. 1 starter Patrick Corbin and setup man David Hernandez underwent Tommy John surgery a week apart in late March, and the D-backs struggled to an 8-22 start. Free agent pickup Bronson Arroyo, the team's most efficient starter, pitched through elbow soreness for six weeks before bowing to Tommy John surgery in July.

The D-backs were unable to pick up the slack on the mound. McCarthy did not win any of his 10 starts at Chase Field, and Trevor Cahill struggled so mightily that he was taken out of the rotation in April and optioned to the minors with his consent in June. As part of the deal, Cahill was told he would be called back to the majors this season.

Among NL teams, only Colorado had a worse team ERA, fewer quality starts and a worse ERA from starting pitchers. The Arizona rotation has given up 72 home runs, tied for third most in the majors.

The team's All-Stars, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and catcher Miguel Montero, were the bright spots on offense. Goldschmidt is hitting .308 with a major-league-high 36 doubles and 16 homers, the only major leaguer with 30/15 at the break. Montero leads major league catchers with 52 RBIs at the break.

[StarDust Bum]

Rockies midseason report: Rotation holds key to success

The Rockies go into the second half with a 40-55 record. They are 13 games behind and a half game out of last place in the National League West. But they have hope for improvement as some of their injured players have recently returned, notably third baseman Nolan Arenado and right fielder Carlos Gonzalez. They lengthen the lineup and both are superb defensive players.

But the Rockies are going to have to get better starting pitching to make any significant strides. They used 13 starters in the first half and will come out of the break with a rotation composed of left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, left-hander Brett Anderson, left-hander Tyler Matzek, left-hander Franklin Morales and Eddie Butler.

Matzek and Butler are rookies, with Butler scheduled to make a second and final rehab start as he recovers from an inflamed shoulder. Both are on the steep portion of the major league learning curve. Anderson missed three months due to a fractured left index finger before returning Sunday and understandably showing his rust when the Minnesota Twins had five straight hits, seven in all, and five runs in the first inning, although he made it through the fifth and allowed just one more unearned run.

Morales is a swing man who has made 13 starts and nine relief appearances this season and has a 5.26 ERA with 18 homers allowed in 87 1/3 innings. He seems better suited for the bullpen but will have to make at least three starts after the break until Jordan Lyles is ready to return.

The Rockies had targeted Lyles' return from a broken left (non-pitching) hand -- he was injured June 4 -- on July 28. But on Sunday, they moved him to the 60-day disabled list because the latest X-ray showed the bone was healing as fast as hoped. This procedural move won't cause Lyles a lot of time but will delay his return to the Rockies rotation until at least Aug. 5. And given his lengthy layoff, Lyles is likely to be rusty.

The Rockies' almost frantic search for pitching led them to sign retread starters such as Brett Tomko, 41, and Chris Capuano, 35, both pitching at Triple-A Colorado Springs. They seem like the latest attempts to stop time by the Rockies, who brought back Roy Oswalt last year and Jamie Moyer in 2012 with little success.

If the Rockies are lucky, a prospect like Jon Gray, the third overall pick in the 2013 draft, might make enough progress at Double-A Tulsa to warrant being called up in September. But right now, he's far from ready for the big leagues.

The Rockies typically struggle on the road, and this season is no different, albeit a little worse with a 16-30 record. But for the Rockies to have any chance to succeed, they most dominate at Coors Field. They dropped two of three games to the Twins before the All-Star break to fall to 24-25 at home. Worse, the Rockies have lost 18 of their past 26 games at Coors Field. And their remaining schedule includes 35 games on the road and 32 at home.

"Our depth certainly got challenged, particularly on the mound," manager Walt Weiss said. "But we are where we are. It's real important we play well right away in the second half."

Everyone thinks we're going to put together a run at some point," Weiss said. "But, obviously, the clock is ticking. We need to do it now, as we speak."

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Thursday, July 17


Carlos Beltran, NY Yankees - Ques Fri

Beltran suffered a broken nose, two facial fractures and a concussion after being hit during batting practice. He is on the 7-day disabled list but could be activated for Friday's game against the Reds.


Hanley Ramirez, LA Dodgers - Ques Fri

Ramirez has missed the last three games with a shoulder injury and is questionable to return on Friday against the Cardinals.

[StarDust Bum]

WNBA

Thursday, July 17


Shock slumping into All-Star break

The WNBA All-Star break is this weekend, and it can't come soon enough for the Tulsa Shock and their backers. The Shock are mired in a five game losing skid both straight up and against the spread.

The Shock were faves in three of the five losses and couldn't cover as 8.5-point dogs at the Minnesota Lynx Wednesday.

They'll try and enter the break on a positive note as 2-point home faves versus the San Antonio Stars Thursday.

[StarDust Bum]

Who's Not Hot - NL

July 17, 2014

The All-Star break has come and gone, and now is the perfect time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Today, we're breaking down the teams that have broken your bankrolls the hardest from the National League thus far in 2014 and analyzing whether we can expect a turnaround in the second half of the year or not.

Arizona Diamondbacks (40-56, -$1,532) – In this case, we tend to believe that the Diamondbacks have to get a bit better from a money standpoint. The team isn't all that talented, but there was no way that this club was really warranting being 16-games under .500 at the break. A horrid start to the season at home really put this club in a hole that it was probably destined to never get out of. However, the perception is clearly there now that Arizona is one of the lesser teams in the National League, but as we'll see here in the second, there are some other teams in the NL West who are in just as bad of shape.

Colorado Rockies (40-55, -$1,512) – Our tour through the NL West continues with a team that, once upon a time, was 22-14 and on top of the NL West with one of the best money marks in the entire league. Since that point though, the Rockies are just 18-41, have the worst money mark in baseball over the course of that stretch, and have faded completely out of sight and out of mind for bettors. The big problem has been the injuries to SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez. We don't remember the last time that these two were in the lineup at the same time for any real period, and what the Rockies have proven is that they really don't have any bats around these two in the order. If the team was smart, it would sell off both at the trade deadline, get as big of a hoard of minor leaguers as they can get, and start to build once again. The pitching staff just isn't there, and the offensive numbers are inflated by Coors Field and the fact that two of the best hitters in the game have carried things.

San Diego Padres (41-54, -$1,482) – Interestingly enough, all three of the worst teams in the National League for MLB betting purposes are from the same division, and no one is really even close. The Chicago Cubs are the next team in line at -$782. San Diego isn't all that talented either, and though it plays in the complete opposite ballpark of the Rockies, the fact that the pitching staff is getting destroyed by injuries is what is causing the Padres to be in this list. RHP Andrew Cashner is the highlight pitcher of five starters that are currently on the DL for the Padres. When you've got a team which is averaging 2.94 runs per game and is batting .214, you'd better have a great pitching staff. The Padres have the fourth best ERA in baseball, but that just hasn't been good enough.

[StarDust Bum]

Rising Five

July 17, 2014


Here we are once again at the All-Star break, mired somewhere in the middle of yet another crazy baseball season. It’s a strange time, isn’t it? For me personally, being someone who obsessively studies and follows this stuff literally every single day and night over the course of the six-month journey, it’s the only portion of the year where time seems to be frozen, as we all collectively wait for our favorite teams and players to return to action and resume the latest installment of America’s national pastime.

Through the first three-months-and-change of the campaign, we’ve already observed some pretty wild events and performances, while being in the midst of saying one of the most emotional goodbyes to any professional athlete in recent memory, but as hard as it is to believe, we still have another two-and-a-half months to go, and that doesn’t even include the always eventful playoff slate. With only a select amount of time left, you may be looking for starting pitchers -- my specialty, and what is really the nucleus for my annual success in over/under betting -- that are on the rise to ride consistently in gambling so with that being said, I present to you five up-and-coming Zylbert Guys (In alphabetical order), whom I’ve been tracking closely for awhile, and appear to be on the hinge of breaking out into something much bigger…

Jake Arrieta - Chicago Cubs

By now, the secret is out about Jake Arrieta, but since I was one of the few on his bandwagon when he first became a Cub last year following a once-thought-to-be meaningless acquisition, I will gladly take this opportunity to revel in it, given how hard he had fallen in Baltimore. After beginning the year on the DL, Arrieta finally arrived to the big league rotation in the beginning of May, when he actually defeated longtime Cubs nemesis Adam Wainwright, and since then, has pitched masterfully. In fact, he’s been so good that despite missing the first month of the season, he was drawing some serious All-Star consideration, something that once seemed unfathomable for a guy who struggled mightily for years while not showing many signs of hope as an Oriole.

Arrieta has transformed himself into a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher, carrying a 5-1 record, 1.95 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP into the second half of the season, but the most impressive stat of all, however, might be his K:BB ratio, which sits at a very impressive 85:22 mark in 78 innings of work. From a betting standpoint, Arrieta has been an unders machine, producing a 7-3-3 record in favor of under bets (I’m actually 5-0-2 with his unders this year), even while regularly drawing low lines. I said it early on in the year when Arrieta first made his return and I’ll say it again: This is someone that could very well be the Cubs’ Opening Day starter in 2015. I actually really like the Cubs next season and am seriously eyeing their Over Win Total as my best bet for ’15 (I said the same thing about the Marlins in this very column a year ago concerning this season, and what a terrific call that turned out to be), and Arrieta will be a big reason for that. In the meantime, his ascension should be taken seriously and bet on accordingly.

Roenis Elias - Seattle Mariners

Oh man, if there’s one starting pitcher that has made their debut in 2014 and caught my eye more than anyone else -- while coming out of the blue to do it, as this kid was barely recognized within his club’s strong young pitching depth previously -- it’s southpaw Roenis Elias, Seattle’s sneakily-emerging rookie. While Elias’ numbers at the moment are far from desirable (7-8, 4.54 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), the 25-year old actually displayed enormous potential prior to a recent three-start stretch that has seen the left-hander yield five runs or more in each outing. In fact, entering late-June, Elias possessed a very respectable 3.74 ERA, and even though that number has since ballooned up almost a full run, I really think Elias will get back on track in the second half and ultimately become an impact player for awhile.

Pitching in a home venue like Safeco Field for half your starts certainly helps, but it’s also his strikeout potential that leads me to believe he can sustain success at the big league level. Elias has actually registered five or more strikeouts in 13 of his 19 starts, and prior to his current funk, he had also exhibited notable consistency, having surrendered three runs or less 11 times in 16 tries, including an impressive complete game shutout in Detroit on June 1 when he outdueled reigning AL Cy Young Max Scherzer. Just like his arrival onto the major league scene, most still aren’t familiar with him but it won’t be long before more people know the name Elias… Roenis Elias.

David Hale - Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves boasting a fabulous starting rotation is pretty much always a given with any baseball season (Even when they have to depend on the likes of Gavin Floyd and Aaron Harang), and it appears that will remain the case so long as David Hale is featured as a prominent part of it. I first fell in love with Hale as soon as he made his major league debut last year, when he made two starts and produced an outstanding 14:1 K:BB ratio in his 11 combined innings, while also recording a 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

I was so excited for the right-hander that I actually tabbed him as one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign (Along with Tanner Roark and James Paxton; how many other people made that genius call on Roark besides me?), as I thought Hale would become a regular fixture on the Braves pitching staff, but alas, that would not end up happening, as the talented young right-hander only made a few starts -- and that apparently was only because of the team’s many injuries -- before being relegated to the bullpen once some of their older arms returned from the shelf. Hale made a spot start a few weeks ago and was excellent as always, and it’s only a matter of time before he resurfaces in the rotation. When that happens, look out. If you’re into fantasy baseball, you should claim Hale immediately if he’s reinstated as a starter later on this season. Just like I emphasized last September, David Hale is going to be legitimately tremendous, and for a long time.

James Paxton - Seattle Mariners

The fact that another Seattle pitcher is being featured in this article -- and one not named Felix Hernandez or Hisashi Iwakuma -- is a main reason why the Mariners are legitimate contenders this season (And I haven’t even discussed the more-known commodity, Taijuan Walker, who is basically a guarantee to succeed). This particular hurler, James Paxton, arguably has as high a ceiling, in my opinion, as any rookie in baseball, and actually might be my favorite up-and-coming left-hander in the game. As mentioned in my David Hale analysis, Paxton was another one of my top three sleepers entering the 2014 campaign, and through his first two starts of the season, it appeared I was spot-on with that call, considering the 25-year old southpaw recorded a 13:2 K:BB ratio in 12 combined innings, while putting together a 2.25 ERA and microscopic 0.67 WHIP in the process.

Unsurprisingly, Paxton won both of those games. Unfortunately, he’s been on the DL ever since thanks to a shoulder issue -- although he is finally close to returning -- and while his sample size this year is quite small, you only have to take a look at what he did last season when he received his first call-up to conclude how dominant this kid can truly be. Paxton made his first four career starts last September, and he was phenomenal, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 21:7 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. Overall, he’s racked up 36 career innings thus far, and has a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP to show for it, while opponents are batting just .164 against him. Yeah, this is someone that’s undoubtedly going to be special so make sure you ride him as soon as he makes his grand return.

Danny Salazar - Cleveland Indians

Yes, I realize Danny Salazar is currently in the minor leagues. Yes, I realize Salazar was nothing but horrific when he was up with the big league club for the first month-and-a-half of the 2014 season. Setbacks can happen with young pitchers, especially very early on in a career when said pitcher is tagged with the pressure of having high expectations from the organization. After the Indians’ surprising break-out run of a year ago (Successfully called by this author, remember), which featured Salazar’s immediate rise towards the end thanks to his standout pitching over ten starts, including a performance that almost single-handedly carried them past the AL Wild Card play-in game, the right-hander was expected to lead the rotation from here on out for years to come with his dominant arsenal.

Instead, Salazar endured the rockiest of runs for a starting pitcher, as he struggled to the tune of a 5.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, and only registered two quality starts in his eight tries. Furthermore, opponents were hitting over .300 against him, and the 24-year old averaged one home run allowed per start. Even so, I still believe what we saw last year from him, albeit in a not-so-large sample size, was no fluke or flash in the pan at all, and that Danny Salazar still has monster potential to become something big for a considerable amount of time. He’ll make his return at some point so make sure you keep close tabs on him.


Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Skaggs, Vance Worley (If he gets back into the Pittsburgh starting rotation), Tyler Thornburg (Just as I said last year, when he’s permanently in Milwaukee’s rotation, which should’ve been all along), Dallas Beeler