-- Cleveland Cavaliers sold $1M worth of season tickets on Wednesday, two days before Lebron James signed, based purely on speculation.
-- Vince Carter gets $12M for three years to play with the Memphis Grizzlies.
-- Former Knicks' coach Mike Woodson is now an assistant with the Clippers.
-- Chris Sale/Anthony Rizzo won the final vote, got added to All-Star rosters.
-- Justin Morneau is the only lefty hitter in Home Run Derby.
-- Texas Rangers have used 27 different pitchers so far this season.
**********
Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts with weekend here....
13) Cleveland Cavaliers are now 4-1 second choice (Spurs are 7-2) to win the NBA title next season. Miami Heat is as high as 100-1 in some sportsbooks.
12) Lebron James coming back to Ohio takes lot of pressure off of new Browns' QB Johnny Manziel; people are excited about basketball, but are also generally in a better mood, so less pressure overall on everyone in Cleveland. Optimism reigns.
11) Cubs' infield prospect Arismendy Alcantara was supposed to go back to AAA after two games, when Darwin Barney came back from paternity leave, but he went 4-4 Thursday and ain't going anywhere. Could Barney become the Wally Pipp of the paternity leave era?
Moral of the story: when you're hitting .224, the wife has the kid by herself.
10) Milwaukee Brewers led St Louis 6-0 after two innings Friday with Gallardo on the mound, things looked good, but they lost 7-6, are now just a game ahead of the Cardinals, having lost nine of their last ten games.
9) St Louis signed free agent George Kottaras to be backup catcher while Yadier Molina recovers from thumb surgery- Kottaras had some big hits for the A's during their unlikely playoff run two years ago. .
8) Edmonton Eskimos/Winnipeg Blue Bombers combined to go 7-29 last year; so far this year, those same two teams are a combined 6-0.
7) Rory McIlroy has played 14 tournaments this year: his second round score is an average of 4.1 shots higher than his first round score.
He is -51 in first rounds, -19 in third, -20 in fourth and +9 in second rounds.
6) Since June 1, Clayton Kershaw allowed 37 baserunners, five runs in 61 IP.
5) CJ Wilson (ankle) goes on the DL; he might only miss one start.
4) If the Seattle Mariners are contenders in September, they'll have to make the playoffs the hard way- they have nine home games, 18 on road in September.
3) Tim Lincecun is hot, allowing one run in his last 30.1 IP. Three of those four starts came against San Diego/Arizona, but it is still impressive.
2) Andrew Wiggins hasn't signed with the Cavaliers yet; they can trade his draft rights at any time before he signs, but once he signs, they can't deal him for 30 days. Would he be part of a trade for Kevin Love?
1) Ironic fact of the day: Miami Heat might not be very good next year; too bad they traded their 2015 first round draft pick four years ago.
To Cleveland, when they acquired Lebron James from the Cavaliers.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Washington at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to follow up last night's 6-2 win in the series opener and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 record in Cole Hamels' last 4 home starts against the Nationals. Philadelphia is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
SATURDAY, JULY 12
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.432; Cubs (Jackson) 16.387
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A
Game 953-954: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.941; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.754
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.960; Milwaukee (Nelson) 14.390
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 957-958: Miami at NY Mets (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.047; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 13.391
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-105); Under
Game 959-960: Washington at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.871; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.810
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under
Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 13.640; Cincinnati (Leake) 16.572
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under
Game 963-964: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.797; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 14.200
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 13.515; Cleveland (McAllister) 17.489
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 14.908; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.360
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Over
Game 969-970: Boston at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.871; Houston (Oberholtzer) 16.793
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.204; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 17.677
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.508; Kansas City (Shields) 15.158
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.216; Texas (Mikolas) 15.707
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Over
Braves-Cubs
Minor is 0-1, 6.48 in his last six starts.
Jackson is 1-4, 6.27 in his last six starts.
Braves lost five of their last six games.
Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
11 of last 14 Atlanta road games stayed under total.
Nationals-Phillies
Strasburg is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
Hamels is 2-2, 2.10 in his last eight starts.
Washington lost three of its last four games.
Phillies won their last five games.
10 of last 15 Washington games went over total.
Pirates-Reds
Morton is 4-2, 3.00 in his last seven starts.
Leake is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.
Pirates lost five of their last six road games.
Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.
Four of last five Leake starts went over total; last three Morton starts stayed under the total.
Marlins-Mets
Koehler is 1-2, 5.35 in his last six starts.
Home team won all eight Matsuzaka starts; he is 2-0, 1.35 at home (4 starts)
Marlins are 5-9 in their last thirteen games.
Mets won five of their last six games.
Seven of last ten New York home games went over.
Cardinals-Brewers
Wainwright is 3-1, 0.79 in his last six starts.
Brewers' top prospect Nelson blanked Marlins for 5.2 innings (107 PT) in his only MLB start.
Cardinals won four of their last five games.
Milwaukee lost ten of its last eleven games.
Seven of last ten games at Miller Park went over.
Padres-Dodgers
Kennedy is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
Maholm is 1-4, 6.93 in seven starts, last of which was May 14.
Padres lost five of their last seven games.
Dodgers lost four of their last five games.
11 of last 13 San Diego road games stayed under.
Diamondbacks-Giants
Miley is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
Vogelsong is 0-3, 2.95 in his last three starts (Giants scored one run).
Arizona lost six of its last eight road games.
Giants lost 15 of their last 20 home games.
Eleven of last fourteen Arizona games stayed under.
White Sox--Indians
Carroll is 1-5, 7.85 in his last seven starts.
McCallister is 0-4, 10.27 in his last six starts, last of which was May 21.
White Sox lost their last three games.
Indians won seven of their last ten games.
Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cleveland home games.
Bronx-Orioles
Greene allowed two runs in six IP in his first MLB start (win at Cleveland).
Tillman is 2-0, 2.28 in his last four starts.
Bronx Bombers lost nine of their last fourteen games.
Baltimore won five of its last six games.
Nine of last thirteen Bronx road games went over total.
Blue Jays-Rays
Hutchison is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
Odorizzi is 2-3, 2.21 in his last six starts.
Blue Jays lost eight of their last ten road games.
Tampa Bay lost three of their last four games.
Six of last seven Hutchison starts stayed under.
Angels-Rangers
Weaver left his last start Monday after two innings (back); he is 2-0, 2.78 in his last four starts.
Mikolas is 0-1, 12.46 in two starts this season.
Angels won ten of their last twelve games.
Rangers lost 12 of their last 13 games.
14 of last 20 Texas road games went over total.
Red Sox-Astros
Red Sox lost last seven Peavy starts (0-5, 5.27).
McHugh is 0-5, 5.46 in his last five starts.
Red Sox won their last three games.
Astros won three of their last four games.
Six of last eight Boston road games went over.
Tigers-Royals
Porcello is 3-1, 2.12 in his last four starts.
Shields is 1-1, 4.85 in his last four starts.
Detroit won seven of its last nine road games.
Royals lost eight of their last eleven home games.
Seven of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
A's-Mariners
Chavez is 2-1, 3.10 in his last five starts.
Iwakuma is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
Oakland won seven of its last nine games.
Mariners lost three of last four games.
Seven of last eight Seattle home games stayed under.
Twins-Rockies
Correia is 0-3, 3.79 in his last three starts (Twins scored four runs).
Matzek is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.
Twins won four of their last six road games.
Colorado won its last three home games.
Under is 6-1-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.
Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Minor 6-7; Jackson 6-12
-- Miley 9-10; Vogelsong 10-8
-- Wainwright 14-4; Nelson 1-0
-- Koehler 8-10; Matsuzaka 4-4
-- Strasburg 10-9; Hamels 6-9
-- Morton 8-10; Leake 8-10
-- Kennedy 9-10; Maholm 2-5
Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Minor 3-13; Jackson 8-18 (5 of last 9)
-- Miley 3-19; Vogelsong 3-18
-- Wainwright 3-19; Nelson 0-1
-- Koehler 2-18; Matsuzaka 2-8
-- Strasburg 5-19 (1 of last 11); Hamels 2-15
-- Morton 3-18; Leake 3-18
-- Kennedy 3-12; Maholm 1-7
-- Carroll 3-8; McCallister 3-10
-- Greene 0-1; Tillman 8-19
-- Peavy 4-18; McHugh 1-14
-- Hutchison 3-18; Odorizzi 1-18
-- Porcello 4-15; Shields 5-19 (3 of last 5)
-- Weaver 4-19; Mikolas 0-2
-- Chavez 5-18 (1 of last 9); Iwakuma 3-13 (2 of last 3)
-- Correia 4-19; Matzek 1-6
Umpires
-- Atl-Chi-- Six of last eight Hoberg games went over total.
-- Az-SF-- Last eight Danley games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- 12 of last 15 Barry games stayed under total.
-- Mia-NY-- Six of seven Marquez games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Fletcher games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Underdogs won six of last seven Gonzalez games.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Rackley games.
-- Chi-Clev-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve HGibson games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of seven Joyce games went over the total.
-- Bos-Hst-- Over is 14-3-2 when West umps plate this year.
-- Tor-TB-- Six of last eight Everitt games went over total.
-- Det-KC-- Four of last five Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Tex-- Six of last nine Reynolds games stayed under.
-- A's-Sea-- 13 of last 18 Davidson gamnes stayed under.
-- Min-Col-- Third home plate in five nights for Hernandez; favorites are 10-2 in his last dozen games behind the plate
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
3:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Chi White Sox are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Chi Cubs's last 19 games when playing at home against Atlanta
4:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona
4:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Colorado is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games at home
4:10 PM
BOSTON vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
4:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
St. Louis is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home
4:10 PM
MIAMI vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
NY Mets are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Mets's last 10 games at home
4:10 PM
TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Kansas City's last 23 games when playing at home against Detroit
7:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Washington is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Washington
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
7:15 PM
LA ANGELS vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games on the road
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Texas's last 25 games when playing at home against LA Angels
7:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
10:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
10:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
LA Dodgers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro was activated from the 60-day disabled list on Friday, the Giants announced via Twitter.
To make room for Scutaro, the Giants designated second baseman Brandon Hicks for assignment.
Scutaro, 38, has yet to play in a game this season because of chronic back pain, but he is scheduled to be in the starting lineup for Saturday's game.
He is earning $6 million this season, which is the second year of a three-year, $20 million deal signed in December 2012.
Last season, Scutaro hit .297, and he hit .306 in 2012, when he spent time with the Colorado Rickies and the Giants. In 61 games with the Giants that year, he hit .361.
Hicks was the Giants' primary second baseman in Scutaro's absence. An adequate defensive player, Hicks hit just .162, but did hit eight homers with 22 RBIs.
Rockies activate Gonzalez
Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez was activated from the 15-day disabled list and was in the starting lineup for Friday's game against the Minnesota Twins.
Gonzalez had a foreign body removed from his left index finger last month and has not played for the Rockies since June 3.
The finger bothered Gonzalez in May and June, and his average slipped to .255 with eight home runs. He also had only two stolen bases.
In his final nine games before being sidelined, Gonzalez was just 2-for-24.
Since Gonzalez has been on the disabled list, the Rockies have gone 11-24 (.314).
Dodgers' SS Hanley Ramirez, questionable Saturday
Ramirez missed Friday's game with a shoulder injury and is questionable to play Saturday against the Padres.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways
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It is time to once again put the MLB Weekday series under the microscope, isolating the key edges that can be major bankroll builders for you in the games ahead.
Mariners – (Fernando) Rodney’s “No Respect”
Reading the countless words written about players that were “snubbed” for the All Star game provides annual amusement, as well as some insight into market perceptions. So often many in the sports mediaverse get it wrong – it is meant to be an All Star Game, and not the “Mid-Season Inter-League exhibition between players who have performed the best over the last three months”. As such, there is rarely sympathy with players who have had a great run through the first half of any season, but were not chosen – that is not what the game should be about. Jack Armstrong was the starting pitcher for the National League in 1990, off of an 11-3/2.28 opening stretch. For the rest of his short career it was a 22-46/5.06.
But what happens when a guy gets such little respect that he not only misses out based on the first half of this season, but on the past 2+ campaigns? And is also so far off the radar screens that even those writing about snubs don’t even mention him? There is indeed a Dangerfield-esque aspect to the perceptions of Fernando Rodney right now.
First a confession – analyzing Rodney has never been a favorite past-time, because of the lack of consistency earlier in his career. Perhaps that has numbed others as well. Despite being handed the ball a lot based on his promise and raw stuff, in seven of his first nine seasons he finished with an ERA above league average. Along the way were plenty of high pitch counts due to a lack of control – there are 259 pitchers that have thrown at least 600 IP since he came up in 2002, and his 4.4 BB-per-9 rates #246. But the Tigers gambled and made him the full-time closer in 2009, and it was a tight-rope walk for the ages – he converted a sparkling 37 of 38 saves, despite a 4.40 ERA and a 4.9 BB-per-9, likely accelerating Jim Leyland’s retirement by a couple of years in the process. That led to a nice contract with the Angels, who apparently only saw the saves, and not the sausage-grinding manner in which they came, and it was a dismal failure – over two seasons for them Rodney only converted 17 of 28 save opportunities, with a frightening 63 BB over 100 IP.
Enter the next stage. He was off to Tampa for 2012, and at a time when many would have considered him finished, it was another season for the ages - 48 of 50 saves came home, at a 0.60 allowance. The latter is something we are not likely to see again, with a .220 BABIP and an 89.4 percent LOB% being the sort of thing a pitcher dreams about. But he followed that up with a solid 2013, even with corrections from the Baseball dice, a 3.38 that saw him nail down 37 of 45 saves. That was enough for Seattle to offer $14 million over two years; easy for Rodney to accept.
His opening to the season was more of the same-old/same-old, with plenty of drama – nine of his first 17 games had a PPI of 18.0 or more. But it was that 17th game that has proven to be a turning point. Facing the Rays for the first time since leaving for the Pacific Northwest, he imploded in the 9th, turning what had been a nifty shutout by Hisashi Iwakuma into a 2-1 loss. He retired only two of the seven batters he faced, was tagged for a HR by David DeJesus, and needed Danny Farquhar to come on and leave the bases loaded.
Naturally there were rumblings in Seattle – that loss triggered an 0-4 Mariner slide, and questions arose about whether the investment had been a good one. Rodney did not even take a mound again until five days later. But that time off triggered something. Since then he has worked to a 0.95 tune, converting 15 of 15 saves, with nearly twice as many K (19) as hits (10). Plus an unexpected caveat - he has issued one BB to the last 69 batters he has faced, Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the 9th in Kansas City back on June 21. Allow that to sink in – Rodney has allowed one BB over a span of 69 batters.
Could even the savviest followers of the sport ever have envisioned him walking one batter over more than a full calendar month? Despite having already turned 37, there is plenty of life left in his arm, but now there is a confidence and swagger in attacking the strike zone to add to it. Since the start of the 2012 season it has been a 1.93 allowance, converting 111 of 123 save opportunities, one of the best stretches for a closer in MLB history. Yet Rodney gets to take a few days off next week, and that rest might be a plus going forward. The Seattle offense is not going to provide many margins, so he is a huge piece to the puzzle if the Mariners are going to gut out enough close games to stay in the pennant race.
Cardinals – Life without Yadier Molina
Molina is simply very, very good. But we may not see him again in 2014. So now it will be time to see if the markets grasp his true value, both in terms of individual game pricing, and the Cardinals in future books.
How good is Molina? He has consistently been the best defensive catcher in the sport, with six consecutive Gold Glove awards. But over time he has become an offensive force as well, and the best way to put that into perspective are his numbers at the plate, compared to the MLB standard for catchers, over the past four seasons -
Those are most significant production gaps, and it is similar when the defensive measures of the positions are brought into play (there have been 181 steals against the Cardinals since 2011, less than half of the average of 365.1 for the other 29 teams). Yet he may have been even better that that, with the metrics for catchers not fully evolved to properly measure the handling of pitchers. Since 2011, the Cardinals are #6 in ERA, #2 in FIP and #4 in xFIP, and it is not because their pitchers are really at that level. If anything, with so much inconsistency behind Adam Wainwright in the current rotation, that part of Molina’s game could really show.
Now it falls to Tony Cruz, who has shown little when given the chance (.236/.280/.323 over 394 PA’s). Cruz does not bring much power (two HR), and you should be watching extra closely in his first games to see how much opponents attempt to take advantage on the bases (Andrew McCutchen stole on the 3rd pitch after a first inning single last night, and grabbed another in the 3rd). Meanwhile the control issues of Shelby Miller (4 BB vs. 1 K throwing to Cruz on Thursday) and perhaps Joe Kelly (more BB than K in three AAA rehab starts), will also bear watching. The Cardinals could genuinely struggle to get to the finish line this season.
Giants – Without an Angel (Pagan) in the Outfield
And off of the Molina take there is a good transition to this one. The rule of thumb for injuries is simple, but often missed – it is the gap between the value of the player that was lost, and those that are replacing him, and it is in measuring the latter that the markets often come up short. Like in the Pagan instance - who knew that it would play such a big part in the NL West race?
Pagan has been quietly effective since coming to San Francisco. He turned in a .288/.338/.440, with plus defense, in 2012, when the league standard for CF was .264/.328/.414. The consistency carried over to a .282/.334/.414 in 2013, vs. a league .258/.324/.395. But there was an issue – he missed 84 games because of a hamstring injury. The Giants went 32-52 without him, but that got lost in the storylines of several other disappointments. Perhaps also because while Pagan is a player that does just about everything well, he does not set off the kind of fireworks in any particular category to generate attention.
To begin this season a healthy Pagan was flashing All Star potential - .307/.356/.411 through 63 games. But the injury big struck again, placing him on the DL on June 15. Once again the impact was dramatic – San Francisco has turned in a dismal 7-16, without him, and a prime culprit has been a CF position contributing a minuscule .212/.277/.300, with 23 K vs. only 10 BB. The Giants hope to have Pagan back by the end of July. At 39-67 without him the L2 seasons, it can not happen soon enough.
Brewers – Towards understanding Kyle Lohse
Lohse got tagged with a loss on Wednesday night, something that has been rather rare in recent years. So in response to a query from a reader, it is proper timing to play “One of these things is not like the other”. Try this at a cocktail party. Since the start of the 2011 season, the MLB leaders in W/L percentage are:
Max Scherzer 63-22 (.741)
Zack Greinke 57-20 (.740)
Clayton Kershaw 62-25 (.713)
Jered Weaver 58-27 (.682)
Pitcher X 50-25 (.667)
Give your friends five guesses at the identity of Pitcher X, and if you offer them even money you have by far the best of it. Not many will realize that it is Lohse, and much of that is for good reason. He would not seem at all to be in the company of those four above him, and some of the standard numbers indeed back that up. There are 156 pitchers that have worked at least 300 IP over that span, and his FIP of 3.72 checks in at #50, while the xFIP of 3.96 is #81. You can’t get to 50-25 from there, according to Baseball logic, although his 3.20 ERA at least brings him in at #19.
So when a reader wondered how Lohse kept winning, it became time to break it down. The answer is that he has become the Catfish Hunter of his generation.
The usual standard is that a Major League pitcher needs either strikeouts, ground-balls, or excellent control in order to survive, usually requiring two of the three in order to be good. But there can be the rarity of a pitcher than genuinely succeeds through fly-balls, and Jered Weaver and Chris Young have already been talked about this season in that regard. What Lohse has done in re-inventing his career is become Hunter, a guy that rarely blew the ball past hitters, but worked high corners of the strike zone to get plenty of fly-ball outs to the power alleys (he even managed to go 21-5/3.34 in 1973 despite allowing 39 HR, a truly nifty dance). The modern metrics struggle with that style – Hunter had a stretch in which his ERA was below FIP in 11 of 12 seasons. He won consistently, but his model is rare.
That is where Lohse is right now. And “right now” is important. He appeared to be near the end of the line several years ago, off of a 6-10/4.74 in 2009 and 4-8/6.55 in 2010. But while injuries impacted his performances in those seasons, they also brought the silver lining of saving some innings from his arm (the Beckett/Lackey sub-category that has been written about here earlier).
Since then he has posted that 50-25, and his ERA has been at least a half run below xFIP in each of those seasons. He wins by throwing strikes (his BB-per-9 since 2011 is #8), and manages to get more fly-ball outs than the metrics want to allow as being healthy. His HR/FB rate has been steadily below average through that span, and that in turn contributes to his BABIP counts of .269, .262, .276 and .266 through the run. Fly-balls find gloves more often than ground-balls do. The downside is that they also can find the seats, but Lohse has had the command to work around that.
How long can he keep it up? If the Brewers make the playoffs, Lohse may be pitching on the night of his 36th birthday (October 4). But even in losing to the Phillies on Wednesday he did not issue a BB of the 31 batters he faced, working to a 13.4 PPI. His other peripherals make him appear as a major over-achiever, but they do not tell the full story. As long as he keeps commanding the strike zone at the current rate, he will continue to perform above market expectations, albeit something less than winning two out of every three decisions.
Diamondbacks – Wade Miley hangs tough
There has been precious little to like from the Diamondbacks so far, a 35-54 in the standings that has looked like a 39-54 on the field. Fundamentals are lacking across the board, and a defense that is last in the NL in both PADE and BABIP allowed has made it most difficult on the pitching staff. Miley has been one of those that has suffered, with his 16-11/3.33 of 2012 and 10-10/3.55 of 2013 falling off to the current 4-6/4.43. But the truth is that he may not have declined at all in terms of the quality of pitches he is throwing, and while there might have been a question of his mental state a week ago, there may have been something from his last start in Atlanta on Sunday that bears watching going forward (no, it was not from the midweek games, but since he does not start again until Saturday it was a good topic to hold back until now).
Miley has been much better than his bottom line. His K-per-9 are up to 8.6, dramatically above the 6.4 standard he had set prior to the season. At 2.6 BB-per-9 he ends up with a K-to-BB ratio that puts him in good company. Combine those K counts with 48.7 percent ground-balls (#27 among qualified pitchers), and there is a formula for success (which xFIP recognizes, at a 3.26 that is #26 of all pitchers this season). There just has not been much. He is only being backed by 3.8 RPG; there is that matter of the awful defense; while a struggling bullpen (14 losses, 12 blown saves) has literally not provided much relief. And it all could have come crashing down against the Braves in his last start.
In the game prior to that, Smiley sported some of his best stuff of the season, carrying a shutout into the bottom of the 9th at Pittsburgh, with only two hits allowed, to go with 10 K and no BB. Kirk Gibson decided to let him go for the shutout (why not, with that bullpen?), but after Neil Walker and Gregory Polanco singled to open the frame, the call went to Addison Reed. Reed set the kindling of those runners ablaze, walking away 11 pitches later to sounds of Pirate fans cheering a 3-2 win.
That bitter defeat made it nine consecutive starts by Miley without a win, despite the fact that he worked to a 4.39 in that span that was not all that bad. And it was the kind of moment that could have sent his confidence spiraling into an abyss. Instead, he rebounded to dominate the Braves, allowing only one run over 6 2/3 IP, with eight K and only one BB. It was a sign of poise at a time when one could have questioned his mettle, and the kind of performance that could lead to some follow-up value over the next cycle. His base stats in the pitching forms, and the decimal Arizona showing in the standings, will not have many getting in line, which is when the savvy handicapper can relish the relative solitude.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
ATLANTA (50 - 43) at CHICAGO CUBS (40 - 52) - 4:05 PM
MIKE MINOR (L) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 34-29 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 167-250 (-47.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-71 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 30-45 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-71 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 38-68 (-25.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 141-188 (-62.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
JACKSON is 28-53 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 27-53 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)
MIKE MINOR vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
MINOR is 5-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.121.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)
EDWIN JACKSON vs. ATLANTA since 1997
JACKSON is 0-3 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.349.
His team's record is 1-5 (-4.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.7 units)
ARIZONA (39 - 55) at SAN FRANCISCO (51 - 42) - 4:05 PM
WADE MILEY (L) vs. RYAN VOGELSONG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 39-55 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 39-55 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 113-79 (+26.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 73-38 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
VOGELSONG is 42-30 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 42-29 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-23 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-63 (-27.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-4 (+2.9 Units) against ARIZONA this season
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)
WADE MILEY vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MILEY is 1-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.04 and a WHIP of 1.262.
His team's record is 1-5 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.2 units)
RYAN VOGELSONG vs. ARIZONA since 1997
VOGELSONG is 3-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.05 and a WHIP of 1.522.
His team's record is 5-7 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-6. (-0.6 units)
ST LOUIS (51 - 43) at MILWAUKEE (52 - 42) - 4:10 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. JIMMY NELSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 23-27 (-9.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-14 (+14.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 24-16 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 123-76 (+26.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WAINWRIGHT is 11-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 61-67 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 1-9 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 16-28 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 61-67 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 26-37 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-3 (+0.1 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)
ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 9-6 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.919.
His team's record is 12-7 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-8. (-0.1 units)
JIMMY NELSON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.
MIAMI (44 - 48) at NY METS (43 - 50) - 4:10 PM
TOM KOEHLER (R) vs. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 115-175 (-45.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 27-17 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 56-71 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 5-16 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 291-308 (-88.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 56-71 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 19-35 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 6-5 (+1.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.5 Units)
TOM KOEHLER vs. NY METS since 1997
KOEHLER is 1-3 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 0.978.
His team's record is 3-4 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-1. (+5.0 units)
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. MIAMI since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 1-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 0.849.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)
WASHINGTON (49 - 42) at PHILADELPHIA (42 - 51) - 7:15 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
STRASBURG is 24-25 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 4-9 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 24-25 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 14-17 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 379-351 (+46.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
HAMELS is 9-1 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 196-221 (-40.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-27 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-32 (-20.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-27 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 84-108 (-24.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-16 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HAMELS is 19-29 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 61-59 (-26.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 19-29 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 13-20 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAMELS is 8-15 (-12.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 (+0.3 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 0.854.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-2. (+4.0 units)
COLE HAMELS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HAMELS is 15-6 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.58 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 21-7 (+9.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-17. (-7.0 units)
PITTSBURGH (48 - 45) at CINCINNATI (50 - 43) - 7:15 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 21-29 (-10.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 241-469 (-99.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 104-233 (-69.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 51-43 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 28-16 (+10.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 51-43 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LEAKE is 11-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 145-116 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 143-115 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 98-66 (+26.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 121-97 (+22.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 66-49 (+17.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 346-371 (-94.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 8-3 (+5.1 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)
CHARLIE MORTON vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
MORTON is 5-7 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.397.
His team's record is 7-8 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-9. (-4.7 units)
MIKE LEAKE vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
LEAKE is 6-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.270.
His team's record is 8-9 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-8. (-0.4 units)
SAN DIEGO (41 - 52) at LA DODGERS (52 - 43) - 10:10 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. PAUL MAHOLM (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 41-52 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 1-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
SAN DIEGO is 41-52 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KENNEDY is 16-26 (-14.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 45-24 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
MAHOLM is 37-21 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 23-24 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 28-31 (-20.1 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 23-24 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-3 (+1.8 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)
IAN KENNEDY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KENNEDY is 5-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.40 and a WHIP of 1.288.
His team's record is 7-6 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.1 units)
PAUL MAHOLM vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
MAHOLM is 1-6 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.443.
His team's record is 1-7 (-6.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.5 units)
CHI WHITE SOX (44 - 50) at CLEVELAND (46 - 46) - 3:05 PM
SCOTT CARROLL (R) vs. ZACH MCALLISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 107-149 (-27.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 11-29 (-14.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 1-13 (-12.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 42-70 (-22.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 102-143 (-27.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 54-91 (-28.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 138-117 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 79-49 (+22.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 52-37 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 132-111 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 53-27 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 75-40 (+29.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 38-12 (+23.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MCALLISTER is 14-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 512-536 (+38.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 7-4 (+3.7 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.4 Units)
SCOTT CARROLL vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
CARROLL is 0-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
ZACH MCALLISTER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
MCALLISTER is 3-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 2.72 and a WHIP of 1.116.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)
NY YANKEES (46 - 46) at BALTIMORE (51 - 41) - 4:05 PM
SHANE GREENE (R) vs. CHRIS TILLMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 52-41 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 94-74 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 26-17 (+12.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 45-39 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 39-28 (+14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TILLMAN is 14-6 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 18-7 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 9-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TILLMAN is 31-17 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 22-15 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 13-24 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 5-2 (+4.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.7 Units)
SHANE GREENE vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.
CHRIS TILLMAN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
TILLMAN is 5-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.722.
His team's record is 7-4 (+6.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.9 units)
BOSTON (42 - 51) at HOUSTON (39 - 55) - 4:10 PM
JAKE PEAVY (R) vs. BRETT OBERHOLTZER (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)
JAKE PEAVY vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PEAVY is 7-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.071.
His team's record is 7-6 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-9. (-7.5 units)
BRETT OBERHOLTZER vs. BOSTON since 1997
OBERHOLTZER is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)
TORONTO (49 - 45) at TAMPA BAY (42 - 53) - 4:10 PM
DREW HUTCHISON (R) vs. JAKE ODORIZZI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 27-9 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 538-619 (+19.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 42-53 (-24.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 9-16 (-13.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-28 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 7-14 (-13.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-28 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-31 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-36 (-15.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 21-31 (-18.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-29 (-12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ODORIZZI is 6-12 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
ODORIZZI is 1-7 (-7.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-2 (+5.2 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.6 Units)
DREW HUTCHISON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HUTCHISON is 2-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.91 and a WHIP of 1.675.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)
JAKE ODORIZZI vs. TORONTO since 1997
ODORIZZI is 0-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)
DETROIT (52 - 37) at KANSAS CITY (47 - 45) - 7:10 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 134-200 (-50.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 68-57 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 33-23 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SHIELDS is 54-32 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 27-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 16-5 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
DETROIT is 27-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 21-9 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
DETROIT is 19-8 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
DETROIT is 10-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DETROIT is 12-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORCELLO is 31-14 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 10-2 (+8.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 40-45 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 10-22 (-18.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 8-3 (+4.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)
RICK PORCELLO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
PORCELLO is 7-3 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.41 and a WHIP of 1.271.
His team's record is 11-5 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-3. (+8.0 units)
JAMES SHIELDS vs. DETROIT since 1997
SHIELDS is 6-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.49 and a WHIP of 1.371.
His team's record is 10-6 (+4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-8. (-1.3 units)
LA ANGELS (55 - 37) at TEXAS (38 - 55) - 7:15 PM
JERED WEAVER (R) vs. MILES MIKOLAS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 54-62 (-22.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 125-119 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 55-37 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 727-714 (+61.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 28-13 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 29-11 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
WEAVER is 81-41 (+27.1 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 38-55 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 18-28 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TEXAS is 1-10 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
TEXAS is 37-53 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 24-43 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 27-38 (-12.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 22-32 (-13.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 6-14 (-10.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
TEXAS is 6-15 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS is 13-32 (-23.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 6-2 (+3.7 Units) against TEXAS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.1 Units)
JERED WEAVER vs. TEXAS since 1997
WEAVER is 13-8 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.208.
His team's record is 19-14 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 20-12. (+6.2 units)
MILES MIKOLAS vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.
OAKLAND (58 - 35) at SEATTLE (50 - 43) - 10:10 PM
JESSE CHAVEZ (R) vs. HISASHI IWAKUMA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 50-43 (+7.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 20-10 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
IWAKUMA is 37-25 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 19-10 (+12.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
IWAKUMA is 36-24 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 58-35 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 73-58 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 41-19 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 51-34 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 56-31 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 94-61 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 166-116 (+45.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 98-75 (+23.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 74-51 (+21.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 28-16 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 59-70 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 107-123 (-46.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997.
SEATTLE is 59-70 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-21 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
SEATTLE is 11-17 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
SEATTLE is 22-35 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 6-5 (+2.5 Units) against OAKLAND this season
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.3 Units)
JESSE CHAVEZ vs. SEATTLE since 1997
CHAVEZ is 0-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.371.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
HISASHI IWAKUMA vs. OAKLAND since 1997
IWAKUMA is 3-3 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.121.
His team's record is 3-3 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-0. (+6.1 units)
MINNESOTA (42 - 50) at COLORADO (40 - 53) - 4:10 PM
KEVIN CORREIA (R) vs. TYLER MATZEK (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 40-36 (+18.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-18 (+10.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-29 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 84-108 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-40 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 50-44 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CORREIA is 103-104 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 100-102 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 59-51 (+24.1 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 198-261 (-70.1 Units) against the money line in July games since 1997.
COLORADO is 13-35 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 47-65 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 48-60 (-22.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)
KEVIN CORREIA vs. COLORADO since 1997
CORREIA is 2-4 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 7-6 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-7. (-1.9 units)
TYLER MATZEK vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
No recent starts.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs, 4:05 ET
Minor: ATLANTA 15-5 SU in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7
Jackson: CHICAGO CUBS 13-25 SU in home games after having won 2 of their last 3
Arizona at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Miley: ARIZONA 6-18 SU after 3 straight games with no home runs
Vogelsong: SAN FRANCISCO 34-11 SU in home games after shutting out a division rival
St Louis at Milwaukee, 4:10 ET
Wainwright: 11-1 TSR as a road favorite of -125 to -150
Nelson: MILWAUKEE 9-18 SU with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5
Miami at New York, 4:10 ET
Koehler: MIAMI 8-20 SU after 3 or more consecutive road games
Matsuzaka: NY METS 17-9 SU after 7 or more consecutive home games
Washington at Philadelphia, 7:15 ET
Strasburg: WASHINGTON 8-19 SU on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5
Hamels: PHILADELPHIA 16-8 SU after allowing 2 runs or less
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 7:15 ET
Morton: PITTSBURGH 52-34 SU after 3 or more consecutive road games
Leake: CINCINNATI 3-15 SU off a one run win over a division rival
San Diego at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Kennedy: SAN DIEGO 1-9 SU on the road with a money line of -100 to -125
Maholm: 37-21 TSR in home games against division opponents
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, 3:05 ET
Caroll: CHI WHITE SOX 1-13 SU when playing on Saturday
Mcallister: MCALLISTER 14-4 TSR after a win
New York Yankees at Baltimore, 4:05 ET
Greene: NY YANKEES 40-54 SU with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5
Tillman: BALTIMORE 20-12 SU after 3 or more consecutive home games
Boston Red Sox at Houston, 4:10 ET
Peavy: BOSTON 10-0 SU after 3 straight games with no home runs
Mchugh: HOUSTON 24-60 SU after 2 straight games without a stolen base
Toronto at Tampa Bay, 4:10 ET
Hutchison: TORONTO 13-6 SU after 5 or more consecutive road games
Odorizzi: TAMPA BAY 9-15 SU in home games after one or more consecutive overs
Detroit at Kansas City, 7:10 ET
Porcello: DETROIT 16-5 SU on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5
Shields: KANSAS CITY 6-15 SU in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4
LA Angels at Texas, 7:15 ET
Weaver: LA ANGELS 24-6 SU as a favorite of -150 or more
Mikolas: TEXAS 1-12 SU as a home underdog of +100 or higher
Oakland at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Chavez: OAKLAND 25-9 SU on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5
Iwakuma: SEATTLE 7-13 SU in home games after 3 games without a stolen base
Minnesota at Colorado, 4:10 ET
Correia: MINNESOTA 14-8 SU after a loss by 4 runs or more
Matzek: COLORADO 47-65 SU after a win
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
There is some rough weather that could affect your bets when the Atlanta Braves met the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field Saturday.
There is an 88 percent chance of rain and expected thunderstorms in the area around game time. There will also be a seven mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
Strong winds could help offenses at this ball park
There will be strong winds reaching up to 18 miles per hour blowing out to left-center field at AT&T Park in San Francisco when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The total for the game is currently at 7.5 and the over/under is 13-15 in conditions like this.
Price scratched from start, Odorizzi takes the mound
David Price has been scratched from his scheduled start against the Toronto Blue Jays Saturday due to an illness.
Jake Odorizzi will get the start in hopes that Price is ready to go for Sunday.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
-- The Astros are 0-12 since August 13, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1,200 when playing against.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 11-0 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost by no more than five runs the last time he started for a net profit of $1,070.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Tigers are 11-0 (+$1,165) since 2009 if not more than a +150 underdog or a -230 favorite, after scoring at least eight runs per game the past five games.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Dodgers are 0-9 since September 13, 2013 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1,184 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 14-2 since May 5, 2008 at home when their team used 5+ pitchers yesterday for a net profit of $1,160.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....
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