The Bum's NFL Preseason Previews of Teams - News - Notes - Selections and Whatever !

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Concussions push Scheffler to retire

June 11, 2014


Tony Scheffler is retiring from the NFL.

Scheffler told The Associated Press on Wednesday he made the choice because he had three concussions over the past four years.

He had 258 receptions for 3,207 yards and 22 touchdowns in his eight-year career. The Detroit Lions released Scheffler in October. He later had workouts with Chicago and Kansas City and says there was ''moderate'' interest in him as a free agent this offseason.

Denver drafted him in the second round in 2006 out of Western Michigan and traded him four years later to Detroit.

Scheffler says his plans include becoming a real estate agent and assistant football coach at the high school in his hometown of Chelsea, Michigan.

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Ex-Pat Hernandez taken for hospital visit

June 22, 2014


DARTMOUTH, Mass. (AP) - Former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was briefly taken from a jail to a hospital this weekend for an undisclosed problem, a Massachusetts sheriff said.

Hernandez was brought to St. Luke's Hospital in New Bedford Saturday and was back at the Bristol County jail in Dartmouth about an hour later, Bristol County Sheriff Thomas Hodgson said Sunday.

Hodgson said he can't disclose what happened because of medical privacy laws.

Hernandez, a Bristol, Connecticut, native, has pleaded not guilty to murder charges in connection with the killings of two men in Boston in 2012 and the killing of another man found near Hernandez's home in North Attleborough, Massachusetts.

The hospital visit, first reported by WBZ-TV in Boston, came a day after his attorneys said in a transfer request that Hernandez should be moved to a jail closer to Boston because communication with his attorneys and his personal safety are being compromised.

Boston-based attorneys Michael Fee and James Sultan complained their client has dealt with ''bizarre and unprecedented'' restrictions in his communications with his lawyers. Hernandez cannot always speak privately over the phone and in-person visits are limited to a specially-designated visitation room at the prison, they said.

The lawyers also suggested Hernandez's safety is at risk now that he faces criminal charges for allegedly threatening to kill a prison guard and his family, and in an alleged jail altercation with another inmate. Hernandez has pleaded not guilty.

Hernandez is set to appear in court in Boston this week in the 2012 drive-by shooting that killed Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado.

Hernandez has pleaded not guilty to all three killings.

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Retirement not on Peyton's radar

June 20, 2014



ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) - Peyton Manning flew to New York this spring to pay his respects to Derek Jeter and David Letterman, two much-admired superstars in the middle of their long goodbyes.

''I'm sad to see some of these guys retiring,'' the Broncos quarterback said at the time. ''I'm not far behind.''

Yet retirement really isn't on Manning's radar as he prepares for his 17th NFL season, his third in Denver. Coming off the best two-year stretch of his career, Manning is keeping tacklers, tedium and time itself at bay.

At 38, Manning said he'll keep playing as long as he's still productive and loves the game.

That passion and productivity were on full display last season when he won his fifth MVP award and set single-season records by passing for 55 touchdowns and more than 5,500 yards.

There are no signs of his affection or efficiency ebbing anytime soon, either.

''You see it in how he prepares every day,'' center Manny Ramirez said. ''We're here in the offseason and he's still putting the same amount of focus as he does in-season, preparing, trying to get better every day, trying to pick apart the defenses.''

''I still enjoy the work and preparation,'' said Manning, who lost wide receiver Eric Decker to the Jets but gained coveted free agent Emmanuel Sanders and prized rookie Cody Latimer.

That turnover actually helps keep Manning young at heart, coach John Fox suggested.

''There's so much change in the NFL nowadays that I think that keeps the juices flowing, whether that's getting Emmanuel Sanders up to speed or last year, Wes Welker. Anytime you put a new cog in there, that's an adjustment,'' Fox said. ''I think he takes pride in that and he attacks that. He seems to me to be having a great time.''

Manning would like to play out his contract, which runs through 2016. Yet, while he's not pondering retirement, he said in an interview with The Associated Press that he has certainly contemplated what it will be like.

''Sometimes I sort of kick back and I pause and I think what sorts of things would I miss the most if I wasn't playing,'' Manning said.

The answer hits him like one of those teeth-rattling sacks by Robert Mathis.

''Being in the huddle,'' Manning said. ''That's what I missed most when I was injured, I'll say that. I mean, there's no other type of unity or bond that I think any other job can provide. I know there are meetings, there are video conferences. But that huddle, because of where it takes place: it's often on the road, in the middle of the field, in front of 80,000 people, it's unique.''

It's what excites him even at an age when many quarterbacks have retired to the broadcast booth or are hitting the links instead of the weights.

''When you don't play football anymore, you can broadcast, you can coach, you can be in management, whatever, but you are not allowed to go into the huddle anymore,'' Manning said. ''That huddle is just for players. You can go into the locker room after the game and you can speak to the team, but I think any retired player would probably tell you they miss the huddle.''

The way Manning has guided the Broncos to a 28-8 record over the last two years belies how far he had fallen when he was forced to sit out the 2011 season in Indianapolis and even had to look in a mirror to relearn his release point after a series of neck surgeries weakened his throwing arm to the point he could hardly grip, much less throw, a football.

Manning's reboot has turned into a blessing.

''Yeah, although I have to say, some guys might need a year off to whatever, relight to fire, whatever it may be. I didn't need a year off to remind me of how much I love football,'' Manning said. ''But when you have it, it sure does reinforce what you kind of always thought, that I do love it.''

Working with play-caller Adam Gase and new teammates has revitalized Manning.

''Sometimes it, the monotonous routine, the boredom, that pushes guys out, not the physical part of it,'' Manning said. ''And I have been stimulated the past two years working with Adam and working with different teammates, so it does sort of keep the bounce in you, I think.''

Manning doesn't view himself so much as a 17-year NFL veteran but as Denver's third-year quarterback.

''I really feel because it's a new team, post-injury, it's kind of a new me. That's how I have to look at it,'' Manning said. ''I'm a different player from before I was injured. I'm not saying better, worse, whatever, just a different player. And so what I can compare myself most accurately to is my first season here in Denver and kind of how I am physically and how I am with my teammates and with Adam and so it's helped to have now two years to build off that baseline.''

He no longer feels like a visitor in his own locker room.

''And I like going into that huddle,'' Manning said. ''I like the guys that I get to work with. I like lifting weights, working with Wes Welker, doing a set of bench press with Jacob Tamme, I like working with the guys that I play with and I still like learning. I like being challenged by Adam every day to be a better football player. There are a lot of things that I still enjoy about it.

''And I look forward to driving over here every day. I think as soon as you go, `Golly, I do not want to go over there today,' that's when you've got to get out.''

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL knowledge for a summer day....

13) Since 2010, Dallas Cowboys are 6-19 as home favorites; underdogs are 24-8 vs spread in their last 32 home games.

12) Ravens are 8-2 vs spread under John Harbaugh if they lost their previous game by double digit margin.

11) Seattle Seahawks are 25-11 vs spread with Russell Wilson at QB.

10) Chicago Bears covered once in their last nine games as an underdog.

9) Steelers are 36-19-2 vs spread in division games with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback

8) Atlanta Falcons are 16-9 vs spread in their last 25 games as a favorite.

7) Patriots are 30-14-3 vs. spread with Tom Brady at QB if they lost their previous game.

6) Buffalo Bills covered nine of their last 11 road games if they were also on road the week before.

5) Arizona Cardinals were 4-1 vs. spread LY in game following a loss.

4) Miami Dolphins are 6-1 as a home underdog with Ryan Taneyhill at QB.

3) Carolina Panthers are just 7-15 vs. spread in their last 22 games as a dog.

2) Philip Rivers’ Chargers are 23-14-2 vs spread as an underdog.

1) Cincinnati Bengals covered the last nine times they were a home underdog against an NFC team.

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13 new officials set for 2014 NFL season

June 26, 2014


NEW YORK (AP) - The NFL hired 13 new officials for the 2014 season and promoted three veterans to referee.

First-year official Brad Allen will join the NFL as a referee from the Atlantic Coast Conference, where he has been a referee for the past nine seasons.

Allen is the first to go to the referee position in his first NFL season since Tommy Bell in 1962.

Allen has refereed several major bowl games, including the 2012 Rose Bowl and 2014 Sugar Bowl. Allen replaces veteran referee Mike Carey, who will join CBS Sports as a rules analyst.

Veteran NFL officials Ronald Torbert and Craig Wrolstad are new referees in 2014, replacing retired referees Scott Green and Ron Winter. Wrolstad has spent the past 11 seasons as a field judge while Torbert has worked the past four as a side judge.

Among the dozen new officials are side judge Shawn Hochuli, the son of referee Ed Hochuli, and field judge Brad Freeman, the son of back judge Steve Freeman, a former player with Buffalo.

Two women, line judge Sarah Thomas and head linesperson Maia Chaka, will work minicamps and preseason games this year. They are in the officiating development program and officiated in Conference USA in 2013.

''Our first-year officials were all among the best in college football, including Brad Allen, one of our new referees,'' NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said.

''Brad was an outstanding referee for many years in the ACC and we are excited about having him on the field. Ron and Craig have proven to be outstanding NFL officials and they also are ready to assume the referee position.''

The other first-year officials are umpires Mark Pellis and Bryan Neale; head linesman Patrick Turner; field judges Eugene Hall and John Jenkins; side judges Alex Kemp and Scott Novak; line judge Ed Walker; and back judges Rich Martinez and Steve Patrick.

The most experienced officials are referees Walt Coleman, in his 26th season, and the Ed Hochuli, in his 25th.

In all, 119 officials will work in seven-man crews during the regular season.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Updated Week 1 NFL odds.........

Green Bay @ Seattle (-5.5, 45)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2, 52)

Minnesota @ St Louis (-6, 45.5)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-5.5, 40.5)

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia (-11, 51.5)

Oakland @ NJ Jets (-4.5, 39.5)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-2.5, 43)

Buffalo @ Chicago (-6, 48.5)

Washington @ Houston (-2.5, 45.5)

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-6, 44)

New England (-3.5, 47) @ Miami

Carolina (-1.5, 39.5) @ Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-4.5, 48.5) @ Dallas

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7, 55.5)

NJ Giants @ Detroit (-4, 45.5)

San Diego @ Arizona (-3.5, 44.5)

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New NFL coaches are shaping tone

July 6, 2014


From the smooth, almost laid-back approaches of Lovie Smith and Jim Caldwell to the fiery passion of Mike Zimmer, new NFL coaches are reshaping the environments of their teams.

Some have much bigger chores than others.

Bringing in a new coaching staff usually means the previous one did too much losing. That's true times seven this year as Smith takes over at Tampa Bay, Caldwell in Detroit, Zimmer in Minnesota, Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee, Bill O'Brien in Houston, Jay Gruden in Washington and Mike Pettine in Cleveland.

PETTINE: BEING BLUNT

Pettine might have the biggest challenge because he takes over a perennial loser: Cleveland last made the playoffs in 2002. There's been discord surrounding the franchise ever since Jimmy Haslam bought it in 2012, and he's already on his third head coach.

The son of a highly successful high school coach, Pettine is bright, self-confident and media savvy, seemingly lacking the suspicious nature of so many NFL head coaches.

He doesn't pull punches, which is critical in engineering a cultural change.

''I would say no nonsense,'' Pettine says. ''I have been nicknamed BFT: Blunt Force Trauma. The days are too short to dance around subjects and I think guys appreciate that.''

SMITH: STAYING LOW-KEY

Another necessary skill is communication. Smith, who was 84-66 in nine seasons in Chicago, yet was canned after 2012, is a master at that. After the roughness of Greg Schiano's reign in Tampa, Smith's low-key style easily won over the players.

Not that Smith doesn't know how and when to be stern; he learned under Tony Dungy, a master communicator.

''It's been a while, I can honestly say, since you've seen guys smile this much and have this much fun,'' says DT Gerald McCoy, among the Bucs' best players. ''It's just a completely different feel around the building.''

CALDWELL: STAYING CALM

Caldwell also comes from the Dungy coaching tree, and he might still be the man in Indianapolis had Peyton Manning not missed 2011 after neck surgery. The Lions needed a steadying influence as head coach after the often unpredictable Jim Schwartz regime.

To some, Caldwell was a surprise choice. To others, he is the anti-Schwartz and will bring a calm steadiness to Detroit - along with more discipline for a team that sometimes stepped beyond the bounds of NFL protocol in its on-field behavior.

Caldwell has joked about his reputation for remaining even-keeled.

''There's no need for a whole lot of cussing, screaming, yelling and all that kind of stuff,'' Caldwell says. ''It's a mini-quiz out here. I never had any of my professors yelling in my ear when I was sitting at the desk filling out those multiple-choice questions.''

ZIMMER: THE TEACHER

Zimmer might be doing some yelling in Minnesota, but it will be in a constructive way. An outstanding defensive coach in Cincinnati since 2008, he was in the running for several jobs before landing the Vikings gig.

His forthright manner, confidence in his defensive schemes and tough love approach make him stand out from predecessor Leslie Frazier.

Most of all, Zimmer sees himself as an educator.

''I think one of the things of being a coach, you're a teacher,'' he says. ''You're trying to teach them about techniques, you're trying to teach them about all the different aspects of the game of football, not just offense or defense, but what the other side of the ball is thinking.''

GRUDEN: FOLLOWING HIS OWN LEAD

Gruden, the younger brother of ESPN analyst and 2003 Super Bowl-winning coach Jon Gruden, was Zimmer's alter ego in Cincinnati. Gruden ran the Bengals' offense, and when Washington decided to replace Mike Shanahan, it sought someone who could design an attack around Robert Griffin III, while also protecting the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Nearly everything had fallen apart in the nation's capital last year, one season removed from an NFC East title. Perhaps most damaging was the fractured relationship between veteran coach and dynamic quarterback.

So Gruden is charged with fixing things on the field and off it.

''I'm not going to try to do something that Shanahan didn't, or not do something that he did, or do something that my brother did or Joe Gibbs did,'' Gruden says. ''I'm just going to try to coach the way I know how, and the way I've done it in the past, and hopefully it'll be good enough.''

WHISENHUNT: PICKING UP THE PACE

Like Gruden, Whisenhunt is considered an offensive guru. With Kurt Warner as his quarterback, he took usually downtrodden Arizona to a Super Bowl. What he likes best is a quick pace - everywhere.

His practices in Tennessee are run at a faster tempo than in previous years. Players and coaches jog from drill to drill. Whisenhunt says he hopes that's noticeable because the intent is to better mimic game speed and conditions.

''I think you have to create an intensity in practice because the game is so fast,'' he explains.

Veteran receiver Nate Washington, who was with Pittsburgh when Whisenhunt was an assistant there, says the change is impossible to miss.

''Before, things have happened in the past and we can't really sit here and try to compare the two or what's been happening before,'' he says. ''But as of right now, I have seen a lot more intensity on this team, period.''

O'BRIEN: TEAM FIRST

The excitement in Houston disappeared with a 14-game losing string that sank the Texans from AFC South champs to worst in the league. O'Brien, who could have written his own ticket at Penn State for years, instead chose to return to the NFL and take on a reclamation project.

Not as massive a challenge as the one he faced with the Nittany Lions, perhaps. But certainly a hefty one for the former offensive assistant at New England.

O'Brien delivered some not-so-subtle messages early on. Veterans don't have their names on their lockers anymore, only their numbers. A note on the inside of each locker says: ''Always put the team first.''

Rookies have a temporary cubicle set up in the middle of the locker room and won't get real ones until they make the team. That goes for everyone, even top choice Jadeveon Clowney.

''Being a head coach is about making sure the team understands the philosophy of what you want to get done: hard work, being a good teammate, team first and all of those things that we talk about every day,'' O'Brien says.

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Jessica Simpson weds ex-NFL player

July 6, 2014


MONTECITO, Calif. (AP) - Jessica Simpson is a newlywed.

The singer and TV personality married retired NFL player Eric Johnson Saturday at San Ysidro Ranch in Montecito, California, her publicist Lauren Auslander confirms.

Simpson and Johnson began dating in 2010. They have a two-year-old daughter, Maxwell, and a one-year-old son named Ace.

Auslander said Ace served as a ring bearer and Maxwell walked down the aisle as a flower girl.

It is the second marriage for both Simpson, 33, and 34-year-old Johnson. Simpson was previously married to singer Nick Lachey. The two co-starred on a VH1 reality series ''Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica'' for three seasons. Shortly after their third wedding anniversary, the two split up.

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Win Projections

July 7, 2014

One of the more interesting articles this time of season is the plus/minus four wins analysis; what does that mean?

Each NFL season we see approximately a dozen teams either enjoy 4+ more wins or suffer through 4+ more losses compared to the prior year – that is a significant swing considering that equals about 37.5% of all NFL teams have a 25% or greater change in their win total.

Of course this analysis is more for the straight-up analyst – really for fans of each team – but it can certainly also add value to the bettor with future plays or as a small cog in your week to week handicapping efforts if applied properly.

Initially, be sure to check out the Win Rankings for each team for each of the last five seasons along with total wins for the last five & three seasons with a ranking of each for those metrics as well.

2014 Projected Wins
- All Scenarios My Realistic Scenarios
- 2014 Projected Wins 2014 Projected Wins
Team +4 Wins -4 Wins +4 Wins -4 Wins
ARI - 6 - 6
ATL 8 - 8 -
BAL 12 4 12 -
BUF 10 2 - -
CAR - 8 - 8
CHI 12 4 12 -
CIN - 7 - 7
CLE 8 - 8 -
DAL 12 4 12 4
DEN - 9 - -
DET 11 3 11 -
GB 12 4 12 -
HOU 6 - 6 -
IND - 7 - 7
JAC 8 - - -
KC - 7 - 7
MIA 12 4 12 -
MIN 9 - 9 -
NE - 8 - 8
NO - 7 - 7
NYG 11 - 11 -
NYJ 12 4 12 4
OAK 8 - 8 -
PHI - 6 - 6
PIT 12 4 12 4
SD 13 5 13 5
SEA - 9 - 9
SF - 8 - 8
STL 11 3 - 3
TB 8 - 8 -
TEN 11 3 - 3
WAS 7 - 7 -
Possibilities 44 33


There are 44 possible outcomes under “all scenarios”, which uses strictly the math of the analysis, where teams could either improve or worsen their wins by 4+ games; the two columns to the right is where I have eliminated 11 of those 44 possible outcomes leaving us with 33 “final” choices, of which approximately a dozen will actually occur (it also just so happened those 33 are split into 17 who could improve by 4+ games & 16 who could worsen by same amount).

Of those 12 possibilities it is also a fair assumption to split those 6/6 – half of the changes will occur by teams improving (2nd to last column on right) while half will occur with teams worsening (last column on right). I am sure when you first look at those 33 potential outcomes it seems hard to believe that 12 of them will occur – but that is what makes this analysis so interesting: just like we see almost half the NFL playoff teams change YOY we will see these drastic record changes despite it looking so far-fetched as we sit here today.

What are the best ways to attempt at selecting which outcomes are most likely? One place to start is examining the first matrix I posted which shows how each team has done in each of the last five seasons – was last year an outlier? Of course there are many variables that need to be taken into account such as injuries last year, free agent additions this year, draft picks, schedule, etc...(most of those topics I will be touching on prior to the start of the season in my usual NFL season preview entries).

One additional angle I will present here is Phil Steele’s “Stock Market Indicator” (SMI) – this metric simply takes a 2-year average of each teams wins, compares it to their performance last year & can be used as a forward looking indicator.

Stock Market Indicator
Team 2011-12 Average 2013 Variance
ARI 7.5 10 (2.5)
ATL 8.5 4 4.5
BAL 9 8 1.0
BUF 6 6 0.0
CAR 9.5 12 (2.5)
CHI 9 8 1.0
CIN 10.5 11 (0.5)
CLE 4.5 4 0.5
DAL 8.5 8 0.5
DEN 13 13 0.0
DET 5.5 7 (1.5)
GB 9.5 8 1.5
HOU 7 2 5.0
IND 11 11 0.0
JAC 3 4 (1.0)
KC 6.5 11 (4.5)
MIA 7.5 8 (0.5)
MIN 7.5 5 2.5
NE 12 12 0.0
NO 9 11 (2.0)
NYG 7.5 7 0.5
NYJ 7 8 (1.0)
OAK 4 4 0.0
PHI 7 10 (3.0)
PIT 8 8 0.0
SD 8 9 (1.0)
SEA 12 13 (1.0)
SF 11.5 12 (0.5)
STL 7 7 0.0
TB 5.5 4 1.5
TEN 6.5 7 (0.5)
WAS 6.5 3 3.5


*Positive numbers in the variance column represent teams that SMI would be bullish on this year while negative numbers represent bearish teams

TEAMS THAT COULD IMPROVE BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bullish squads)

Atlanta Falcons to 8 wins: Really dropped off a cliff last year down to 4 wins after some very tough early season losses that seemed to snowball quickly. Before last year the Falcons had averaged 11.2 wins per year since QB Matt Ryan took over in 2008 including a floor of 9 wins. At the moment my calibrated wins model has the Falcons going 8-8 although they do face a tough schedule that is ranked 7th overall using my power ratings (8th toughest road & 11th toughest home) including facing the AFC & NFC North. My models also expect an improvement to their TOM, the SMI is +4.5 and they should enjoy better luck with injuries.

Houston Texans to 6 wins: Before last year’s 2-14 mark they had not won fewer than 6 games since 2005. There is still a ton of talent on this roster & although a coaching change was made to Bill O’Brien he has been successful at all prior stops including his only head coaching experience at Penn State the last couple years. Currently my calibrated wins model projects a 7-9 mark versus the weakest schedule in the NFL as measured by my power ratings (Important to note I say currently when specifically talking to calibrated wins model & SOS because they are completely driven by the power rating I apply to each team, which is fluid & not only could change before the season starts due to injury or other reasons but they shift weekly during the season). Houston suffered through the worst YOY change in TOM last season at a whopping (32) – that will no doubt improve. Considering the Texans were 21st in my performance ratings last year vs. the 10th toughest schedule, a weak division, the top SMI in the NFL at +5.0 & a new voice in the room with O’Brien I feel they should easily top this 6 win mark.

Washington Redskins to 7 wins: Despite winning 10 games & the NFC East in RG3’s rookie season of 2012 the Skins struggled mightily in 2013 going just 3-13 leading to the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan. That by itself should give a boost to Washington as there was a clear dysfunctional relationship between he & his prized QB – in comes Jay Gruden who has no NFL head coaching experience but has been an OC with modest success. The Skins had the 3rd worst YOY change in TOM last year which should improve this season & currently my calibrated wins model projects an 8-8 mark in 2014. Their SOS based on my current power ratings checks in at 26th in the NFL (18th on road & 28th at home) – easiest in their division, while the SMI is bullish as well at a +3.5.

TEAMS THAT COULD WORSEN BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bearish squads)

Arizona Cardinals to 6 wins: This coming year the Cardinals will face the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL largely because they reside in the toughest division in football, but also driven by the fact they are playing the strong AFC West & the “no team is awful” NFC East. In addition to their SOS their QB is still Carson Palmer whom many believe played well last year but according to my performance ratings their offense was just 19th in the NFL including 25th in rushing offense & 30th in INT’s thrown as a % of pass attempts. With St. Louis improving & their other two divisional rivals remaining Super Bowl threats ARI is due for a dip this season – how far is yet to be determined but I feel they are amongst the handful of most likely to worsen by 4+ games.

Cincinnati Bengals to 7 wins: We have all likely seen the stat that each year we can expect to see approximately 5 new playoff teams – well that is a big reason the Bengals made the cut here unfortunately. Cincy has improved each of the last 3 seasons going from just 4 wins in 2010 to 9, 10 & 11 the last three – but this could be the year we see a step back. How fragile is Andy Dalton mentally is one big question after playing so badly in the playoffs once again. Their schedule does not appear to be a killer checking in at #23 overall but they will face the toughest amongst their divisional rivals; with Baltimore & Pittsburgh both coming off a season where they missed the playoffs, and Cleveland improving a ton not only with their on field play last year but their paper game this past offseason (sans the behavior of stud WR Josh Gordon) this could be the season the Bengals struggle & Marvin Lewis’ job is in danger. Their defense ranked #2 in my models last year but that was versus the 26th toughest schedule of opponent offenses – this year their opponent offenses will definitely be up a modest amount with the likes of New England & Denver (both of whom they did play last year), hungry Baltimore & Pittsburgh along with the NFC South juggernauts like Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts to 7 wins: Hard to argue with Indy’s success since the decision to let QB Peyton Manning walk away & draft QB Andrew Luck – the Colts have gone 11-5 & reached the playoffs in each of the last two seasons; the question is how much of that success was smoke & mirrors vs. statistically playing to a combined 22-10 mark? According to my models no team has overachieved as much in these last two years as Indy – and frankly it’s not very close. Last year they checked in at #16 in my performance rankings vs. the 17th toughest schedule – an exactly average team by both measurements, suggesting precisely an 8-8 team. Their 2014 schedule will be tough as outside their own division they will not have 1 truly “gimme” win facing Denver, New England, AFC North & NFC East. After not doing much of anything to improve their roster this past offseason, enjoying many lucky bounces over the last two years including last year’s playoff win against Kansas City and management in a bit of disarray with the personal problems their owner faced this offseason the Colts are ripe to dip in 2014.

[StarDust Bum]

Turnover Analysis

July 9, 2014

NFL 2014 Turnover Margin Analysis

It’s Impact on the Outcomes of NFL Games: Part I

If you are a statistical analyzer, and break down numbers on NFL games with any sort of regularity, you know that Turnover Margin is an incredibly important statistic in the outcome of all games. Straight up, Against the Spread – doesn’t matter. Perform well in this area, be it taking care of the ball, or taking the ball away from your opponent on a regular basis, and the likelihood you are playing football come January greatly increases.

Most NFL fans, even the casual fan that doesn’t get too involved in breaking stats down is aware of this phenomenon. But how good a tool can it be to predict future outcomes, whether it be on a week to week basis trying to pick straight up winners in your office pool, picking a few games to wager your hard earned cash on, or even trying to predict the chances your team has at making the playoffs? It’s very useful, and below I will discuss various angles and ways to utilize this one stat in your handicapping efforts.

Initially let’s examine the relationship between turnovers, points scored vs. points against (which is a team’s points margin), and projected records based on those two stats.

Turnover Margin Analysis

- POINTS TURNOVER NORM ACTUAL NEW PROJ WIN 2+

TEAM MARGIN ADV/(DIS) MARGIN RECORD RECORD VARIANCE TMS

ARI 3.44 0.00 3.44 10-6 10-6 - -

ATL (5.63) (1.25) (4.38) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

BAL (2.00) (1.25) (0.75) 8-8 8-8 - -

BUF (3.00) 0.75 (3.75) 6-10 6-10 - -

CAR 7.81 2.75 5.06 12-4 11-5 1 -

CHI (2.06) 1.25 (3.31) 8-8 6-10 2 CHI

CIN 7.81 0.25 7.56 11-5 12-4 (1) -

CLE (6.13) (2.00) (4.13) 4-12 6-10 (2) CLE

DAL 0.44 2.00 (1.56) 8-8 7-9 1 -

DEN 12.94 0.00 12.94 13-3 14-2 (1) -

DET 1.19 (3.00) 4.19 7-9 10-6 (3) DET

GB (0.69) (0.75) 0.06 8-7-1 8-8 - -

HOU (9.50) (5.00) (4.50) 2-14 5-11 (3) HOU

IND 3.44 3.25 0.19 11-5 8-8 3 IND

JAC (12.63) (1.50) (11.13) 4-12 3-13 1 -

KC 7.81 4.50 3.31 11-5 10-6 1 -

MIA (1.13) (0.50) (0.63) 8-8 8-8 - -

MIN (5.56) (3.00) (2.56) 5-10-1 6-10 - -
NE 6.63 1.75 4.88 12-4 11-5 1 -

NO 6.88 0.00 6.88 11-5 12-4 (1) -

NYG (5.56) (3.75) (1.81) 7-9 7-9 - -

NYJ (6.06) (3.50) (2.56) 8-8 6-10 2 NYJ

OAK (8.19) (2.00) (6.19) 4-12 5-11 (1) -

PHI 3.75 3.00 0.75 10-6 8-8 2 PHI

PIT 0.56 (1.00) 1.56 8-8 9-7 (1) -

SD 3.00 (1.00) 4.00 9-7 10-6 (1) -

SF 8.38 3.00 5.38 12-4 11-5 1 -

SEA 11.63 5.00 6.63 13-3 11-5 2 SEA

STL (1.00) 1.75 (2.75) 7-9 6-10 1 -

TB (6.31) 2.50 (8.81) 4-12 4-12 - -

TEN (1.19) 0.00 (1.19) 7-9 7-9 - -

WAS (9.00) (2.25) (6.75) 3-13 5-11 (2) WAS


LEGEND:

Points Margin: Points scored – points allowed for 2013 regular season

Turnover Adv/(Dis): Represents the per game impact each team’s turnovers had on their points margin. This number is derived by taking the total Turnover Margin on the season, dividing by 16 to get a “per game” TO Margin, then multiplying by 4 (or whatever value you choose to place on turnovers – discussed below)

Norm Margin: Represents normalized margin & is calculated by taking Points Margin MINUS Turnover Adv/(Dis). This figure hypothetically represents what a team’s point’s margin would have been stripping out the impact turnovers had on it

Actual Record: Straight forward, each team’s true SU record for 2013 regular season

New Proj Record: Uses the Normalized Margin calculation, and fits each into the Points Margin Pythagorean Theory matrix. It is generally assumed that teams who on average outscore their opponents by 1.5 points per game (PPG) will go 9-7, 3 PPG 10-6, 5.5 PPG 11-5 and so on increasing ppg by 2.5 points for each win – and using the reciprocal of each of those marks for losing records. Note, since these figures are quoted in decimals & rounded, the sum of 255 wins does not equal 256, the amount we see in an entire NFL season if there are no ties.

Win Variance: Calculated by taking Actual Record MINUS New Projected Record.

Next big piece of this analysis is to explain how we valued the turnover. Most analysts who work with turnovers in their models will value these at approximately being worth 4 points.

Of course this number is not set in stone, and can be debated & supported at various “point” impacts – but for this analysis I will be using 4 points. In reality, any number you select within reason – the number has to be worth anywhere between a minimum of two points and a maximum five points because a turnover either way leads to the possibility of scoring or allowing points – working with estimated % chances of scoring/allowing a FG/TD will allow you to derive your own worth of a turnover; so long as you have support & utilize a consistent value for all teams your analysis will be sound.

By using that method of “valuing” turnovers, we can calculate a new point’s margin based on a team’s pure play performance – stripping away the advantage/disadvantage turnovers had on their point’s margin. This is a valuable way to place a barometer on how team’s truly performed, statistically speaking, in their games.

Now that we have explained all the data, here is where it gets useful. As mentioned, a “model” or any analysis is only good if you back-test it, and prove that it has worked in the past.

While any model may add value for a short period of time or even a year the ones that offer the best value & assistance in your handicapping efforts are those where you apply your theory for a minimum of 5 years back & check how significant its results are vs. actual results.

Especially in this day & age there are tons & tons of new statistics, analysts & bloggers publishing their work – but the biggest issue I see many have is information overload. Sure most of the new statistics & theories can help you predict outcomes of sporting events but you should attempt at mastering a small data set & metrics, knowing how to utilize those the best you can to handicap games; you do not want to be a jack of all trades / master of none – too many times I read on Twitter handicappers using tons of different analytics & metrics every other night – there is a such thing as information overload, which is where many people go wrong.

Remember my old saying – give me either side of any game & I can give you a write-up supporting that play….

Back to this analysis, let’s first focus on the teams that achieved a record in 2013 that was above and beyond their actual performance stripping the impact of turnovers. These team’s we forecast to drop in wins from 2013 to 2014 because as we know, turnovers typically, but not always, revert back to the mean – so a team’s performance that was positively impacted by a strong TO margin the prior season often flips in the very next season.

Numerous articles have been posted on this over the years & this has proven to be a solid leading indicator for the following season, barring IMPACT signings or SIGNIFICANT free agency defections.

For the 2014 season here are some teams we would be bearish on, i.e. those that are likely to win less than they did last season:

Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks

Now let’s move onto the team’s that were negatively impacted by TO margin in 2013, which means we expect this group to have a stronger record in 2014 comparing to 2013:

Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Washington Redskins

As I continually stress back-testing must be completed on any analysis to confirm its accuracy. We have done that the last few years with this analysis, but for ease let’s examine below which teams we expected to slide in the 2013 season vs. the 2012 season (posted here last summer):

Team’s that were likely to see a drop in their 2013 record went 3-1-1 as I show games won in 2012 vs. 2013 in parenthesis:

Atlanta Falcons (13 to 4): CORRECT
Houston Texans (12 to 2): CORRECT
Indianapolis Colts (11 to 11): SAME
Tennessee Titans (6 to 7): INCORRECT
Washington Redskins (10 to 3): CORRECT

Team’s that were likely to win at least one more game in 2013 vs. 2012 went 2-0-1 as change in wins is shown in parenthesis:

Detroit Lions (4 to 7): CORRECT
Kansas City Chiefs (2 to 11): CORRECT
Pittsburgh Steelers (8 to 8): SAME

In summary, using TOM’s impact on NFL Pythagorean Theory, heading into the:

2011 season there were 13 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way we projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was SD who went from 9 to 8 wins & we forecasted a rise

2012 season there were 12 teams that were projected to slide up or down in wins – 10 moved the way projected while 2 slid opposite (SD again & PHI both were projected to drop but increased their wins vs. 2011)

2013 season there were 8 teams that were projected so slide up or down in wins – 5 moved the way projected while 2 stayed the same; the only one that missed was TEN who went from 6 to 7 & we forecasted a drop

SUMMARY: Over last three seasons we have projected 33 teams to shift their wins either up or down – only FOUR of those THIRTY THREE moved the opposite way (just 12%).

Going into the 2014 season we have nine teams projected to slide up or down in wins based on this initial look at TOM & Pythagorean Theory.

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2015 Playoff Surprises

July 15, 2014

The NFL season is fast approaching with preseason starting in August before the regular season begins in September. It’s well known in the NFL that it’s hard to reach the postseason and the numbers back that up. Typically, almost half of the 12 teams that earned a playoff spot last year will NOT return in the following season.

Who will be the new faces in the 2014 playoffs?

I’ve got my eye on five teams that finished at .500 or below in the 2013 season and I believe they have a great chance to improve this fall.

Pittsburgh Steelers
2013 Record: 8-8

The Steel Curtain looked more like Vinyl Curtains last year. In their eight losses opponents averaged 30 points per game. After the Steelers horrible 0-4 start, they came on strong finishing 8-4. The Steelers focused on their defensive needs during the draft. The selections in the first 4 rounds were excellent.

First round pick Ryan Shazier will pay immediate dividends. He will give the Steelers the athletic linebacker they desperately need to help put pressure on the quarterback. Sacks were something Pittsburgh seldom accomplished last year ranking 25th. The Steel curtain could be revived with 2nd round pick Stephon Tuitt, a defensive lineman from Notre Dame. He is a physical specimen that will demand double teams hence freeing up the LBs to attack the QB.

Big Ben Roethlisberger needed a companion wide receiver to line up across Antonio Brown and they will get it with the rookie Martavis Bryant from Clemson.

2014 Impact Player: Dri Archer - RB/KR is the fastest player in the draft
2014 Prediction: Steelers 11-5 (AFC North Winner)

Baltimore Ravens
2013 Record: 8-8

The defending Super Bowl champions of 2013 had a letdown thanks to its inept offense. The Ravens boosted their chances to get back to the Super Bowl this offseason by adding free agent wide receiver Steve Smith. He is a possession WR that was needed by quarterback Joe Flacco.

Tight end Dennis Pita is healthy again and will add another valuable receiver for Flacco. Another great pick up in the draft was Wake Forest WR Michael Campanaro. He is a slot WR and could be considered a poor man’s Wes Welker. Baltimore also added some great picks on the offensive line, which was certainly needed to help the running game and Flacco.

2014 Impact Player: CB/FS Terrence Brooks from FSU
2014 Prediction: Ravens 10-6 (AFC Wild Card)

Chicago Bears
2013 Record: 8-8

The Bears front office gets an A+ for their recent free agent moves and draft selections. Bears will go from Cubs to Grizzlies with new FA acquisition of Jared Allen from the Vikings.

Chicago was ranked last in defense in both sacks (31) and rushing yard allowed (2,500). While Allen gives the Bears a pass rush, the recent additions of Lamar Houston and Willie Young give them depth on defense. These moves will allow undersized Shea McClellin to move back to his natural position of linebacker.

In the draft, Chicago used its first three picks on defense. Cornerback Kyle Fuller was selected 14th overall and should help a secondary that’s getting older. Defensive linemen Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton are expected to add depth and help the loss of defensive end Julius Peppers.

Offensively, the Bears picked up Ka’deem Carey out of Arizona in the fourth round, which should help spell Matt Forte.

If QB Jay Cutler can stay healthy with his returning OL, the offense should continue to excel, especially with wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.

2014 Impact Player: Ego Ferguson DL
2014 Prediction: Bears go 11-5 to win Division.

Detroit Lions
2013 Record: 7-9

Will Detroit finally roar like a Lion or disappoint and purr like a kitten? Something you might not know. The Lions were made “Kings” by Las Vegas last year as they made them the favorites in 14 out of 16 games. After the Lions started the 2013 season with a 6-3 record, they took their customary nose dive going 1-6 the rest of the season.

They went out and picked a TE Eric Ebron from North Carolina in the 1st round which made no sense to me as they are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, led by WR Calvin Johnson. It's their second round selection of LB from BYU Kyle Van Noy that makes sense. He will help open things up for the heralded defensive of the Lions and will help relieve Ndamukong Suh from double teams. They also got IVY-league sleeper Caraun Reid, a defensive tackle from Princeton that is expected to create problems.

2014 Impact player: LB Kyle Van Noy
2014 Prediction: 10-6 (NFC Wild Card)

Washington Redskins
2013 Record: 3-13

So far we have picked four teams that were not shockers. This Redskins selection is one. They have gone through a completely different coaching staff. There biggest offseason move was a good one in getting former Philadelphia Eagles WR Desean Jackson, who always gave the ‘Skins fits when he played for Philadelphia. One of the biggest issues for the Redskins was protecting QB Robert Griffin III. Washington elected to draft two offensive linemen in Morgan Moses and Spencer Long, which will boost depth.

The biggest reason why I’m high on the Redskins is because of their schedule. The NFC East is tough but I’m predicting a 3-3 record and that’s worst-case scenario. Outside of those six matchups, Washington will face Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Minnesota. All winnable games in my opinion.

2014 Impact player: WR Desean Jackson
2014 Prediction: 9-7 (NFC East Winner)

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: NFL trends to ponder........

13) Cowboys covered once in their last nine Monday night games.

12) Chargers beat the spread in their last seven visits to Denver.

11) Dolphins covered 11 of last 13 as an underdog of less than 5 points.

10) Oakland is 0-6 vs spread in game following their last six wins/covers; they've covered seven of their last eight visits to Kansas City.

9) Philadelphia is 10-23-1 against spread at home the lasst four years.

8) Saints are 0-6 vs spread in last six Thursday games, but covered their last five Monday night home games.

7) Carolina is 0-5 vs spread in game following their last five meetings with division rival New Orleans.

6) Baltimore Ravens covered once in their last seven Thursday games.

5) Falcons covered only two of last seven visits to Tampa Bay.

4) 49ers covered eight of last nine Monday night games, but are 2-8 vs spread in game before their last ten MNF appearances.

3) Green Bay covered once in last seven tries as a road favorite of 7+ points.

2) Tennessee covered its last six games as a double digit favorite.

1) Jets are 0-8 vs spread the last eight times they played after losing as a favorite the week before.

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Home 'Dog Breakdown

July 20, 2014

The myth of receiving value by backing home underdogs in the NFL isn’t always exactly the case. Last season, home ‘dogs owned a 42-45-2 ATS (48%) record, which is hardly something to have faith as a long-term bettor just blindly taking the points with these clubs. Looking closer into last season, a majority of the success for these ‘dogs came in the first month of the campaign.

Through the first five weeks of the 2013 season, home ‘dogs compiled an impressive 17-11 ATS (60.7%) ledger, which including a 5-2 ATS mark in Week 5. Among the highlights in this stretch, the Bills cashed three times in this role, including outright victories over the Panthers in Week 2 and the Ravens in Week 4, while covering as 10-point ‘dogs against New England in a 23-21 setback in the season opener. Among the 17 teams that covered in the opening five weeks, 13 times won outright, with the highest payoff coming from the Raiders in a Week 5 night victory over the Chargers as six-point ‘dogs and +215 on moneyline.

However, the success of the home ‘dog dipped during the final 12 weeks of the regular season, compiling a 25-34-2 ATS (42%) in this span. For six consecutive weeks from Week 6-11, at least five teams were listed as home underdogs, while only profiting in Week 11, albeit barely at 3-2 ATS. The most profitable home ‘dog when the season concluded was Buffalo, who cashed five times in this role.

One team that seemed like an automatic fade when receiving points at home was Jacksonville, as the Jaguars put together a putrid 1-6-1 ATS record in this role in 2013. The first five losses for the Jags came by double-digits, while the last three games were competitive, which included a 27-20 December victory as three-point ‘dogs against the Texans.

On the flip side, backing some of the best teams in the league as a road favorite was an extremely profitable venture. The 49ers owned a perfect 5-0 ATS record when laying points on the road, while the two conference champions, the Seahawks and Broncos, each put together a 5-2 ATS mark as an away favorite. Both Seattle and Denver coincidentally lost at Indianapolis, while one of the Seahawks’ ATS defeats came as a 13-point favorite at St. Louis in a 14-9 victory.

Short home ‘dogs weren’t winning plays in the long run in 2013, as these clubs that received 1 ½ points or fewer posted a dreadful 6-13 ATS mark. If these teams are taken away, then the overall number is slightly profitable at 36-32-2 ATS on home ‘dogs that were listed at two points or higher. Six times during the season, clubs that received at least 9 ½ points failed to cover at home, as opposed to only two covers by teams in this pointspread range (Bills – Week 1, Rams – Week 8).

Looking ahead to the 2014 season, three squads are listed as home underdogs in Week 1, as the Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Cowboys all will receive points in the opening week. Miami (+3 ½) split a pair of games with New England last season, while Tampa Bay (+ 1 ½) was blown out twice by Carolina in 2013. The Cowboys (+4) host the 49ers, as Dallas owns a 5-2 ATS record since 2010 when getting points at home.

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AFC West Preview: Broncos, Manning stay on top

With record-smashing Peyton Manning at quarterback and a revitalized defense, the Denver Broncos are the best in the AFC West according to a survey of The Sports Xchange football staff.

San Diego and Kansas City are expected to wage a close battle for second place while the rebuilt Oakland Raiders enter 2014 as a bit of a mystery, but picked to finish last.

Here is a closer look at the AFC West teams as training camps begin (teams listed in alphabetical order):


CAMP PREVIEW: Denver Broncos

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC West

--2013: 13-3, 1st in AFC West; AFC Champion.

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Paul D. Bowlen Memorial Broncos Centre, Englewood, Colo., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .500 (15/32); non-division .613 (1/32); overall .570 (2/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Peyton Manning. As long as he is upright, the Broncos are a championship threat. In spite of being without six defensive starters and their starting left tackle by the AFC Championship Game, Manning was still able to lead the Broncos past the Patriots with a 400-yard day.

The Broncos showed last year that they had enough depth to get by, even without All-Pros Von Miller and Ryan Clady, who combined to miss 27 games in the regular season and playoffs. That was because Manning could

--WEAKNESS: Running back. It's not that starter Montee Ball is not capable. After overcoming fumbling issues in 2013, he had a higher per-carry average than then-first teamer Knowshon Moreno for the last five games of the regular season and through the playoffs. But the Broncos will platoon at least two runners a game this year, and nothing behind Ball is proven.

Third-year running back Ronnie Hillman has the draft pedigree, as a third-round pick in 2012, but has been a disappointment and was inactive throughout the Broncos' playoff run in January. C.J. Anderson, an undrafted rookie last year, passed Hillman on the depth chart; he is short but strong, and has potential. Three undrafted rookies and former Vikings camp hand Jerodis Williams round out the group. If the Broncos lose Ball, they're left with inexperience, and perhaps will have to seek a veteran still on the market out of necessity.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Bradley Roby (1/31): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Cody Latimer (2/56): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Michael Schofield (3/95): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Lamin Barrow (5/156): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Matt Paradis (6/207): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Corey Nelson (7/242): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--WR Andre Caldwell: Potential UFA; $3.45M/2 yr.

--T Winston Justice: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--C Will Montgomery: FA Redskins; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Emmanuel Sanders: UFA Steelers; $15M/3 yrs, $6M guaranteed.

--CB Aqib Talib: UFA Patriots; $57M/6 yrs, $5M SB/$26M guaranteed.

--S T.J. Ward: UFA Browns; $22.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--DE DeMarcus Ware: FA Cowboys; $30M/3 yrs, $20M guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--S Mike Adams: Not tendered as UFA/Colts; terms unknown.

--DE Robert Ayers: UFA Giants; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$1.75M guaranteed.

--CB Champ Bailey (released).

--G Zane Beadles: UFA Jaguars; $30M/5 yrs, $12.5M guaranteed.

--WR Eric Decker: UFA Jets; $36.25M/5 yrs, $7.5M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--KR/PR Trindon Holliday: Not tendered as ERFA/Giants; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Michael Huff (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Quentin Jammer (not tendered as UFA).

--G Chris Kuper (retired).

--LB Paris Lenon (not tendered as UFA).

--DE Jeremy Mincey: UFA Cowboys; $4.5M/2 yrs, $2M guaranteed.

--RB Knowshon Moreno: UFA Dolphins; $2M/1 yr, $500,000 SB/$1.25M guaranteed.

--DE Shaun Phillips: UFA Titans; $6M/2 yrs.

--CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: UFA Giants; $35M/5 yrs, $10M SB/$13.98M guaranteed.

--LB Wesley Woodyard: UFA Titans; $16M/4 yrs.


CAMP PREVIEW: Kansas City Chiefs

--TSX Predicts: Tie for 2nd in AFC West

--2013: 11-5, 2nd in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Missouri Western State University, St. Joseph, Mo., 7/20, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .542 (T11/32); non-division .569 (2/32); overall .559 (7/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Linebacker. The power of the Chiefs roster can be seen in their three Pro Bowl linebackers -- Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston. The team added to this group 2014 first-round draft choice Dee Ford.

If Houston and the Chiefs work out a contract extension and the linebacker does not miss a lot of training camp time in a holdout, it will be hard for Ford to get a lot of snaps in the K.C. defense.

But the Auburn rookie -- a productive college defensive end-turned linebacker -- was so impressive in the team's offseason practices the coaching staff may not be able to keep him on the sidelines.

Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will spend the pre-camp break brainstorming on schemes where Hali, Houston and Ford are rushing the passer together.

WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. The Chiefs have 12 wide receivers on the 90-man roster. Six have played at least one NFL game, but only two have more than 50 league appearances -- Dwayne Bowe (103) and Donnie Avery (71). Last season, the wide receivers accounted for 52 percent of the team's passing offense, with Bowe and Avery producing ordinary performances with just seven touchdown catches total and averaged only 13.1 yards per catch (91 receptions, 1,269 yards).

The Chiefs needed to be active adding receivers in free agency and the draft. Slot receiver Dexter McCluster signed with Tennessee in free agency. But the closest Kansas City came was selecting University of Oregon running back De'Anthony Thomas in the fifth-round and he will play everywhere in head coach Andy Reid's offense, including wide receiver.

They added other bodies without NFL experience: 5-foot-7, 180-pound Weston Dressler from the Canadian Football League (98 games, 442 catches, 6,536 yards, 43 touchdowns) and Jerrell Jackson, who played 19 games in Arena Football. Apparently, the Chiefs could not afford NFL free-agent receivers.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Dee Ford (1/23): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Phillip Gaines (3/87): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB De'Anthony Thomas (4/124): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Aaron Murray (5/163): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Zach Fulton (6/193): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (6/200): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Husain Abdullah: UFA; terms unknown.

--LS Thomas Gafford: Potential UFA; $730,000/1 yr.

--LB Frank Zombo: Potential UFA; $1.625M/2 yrs, $100,000 SB.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--G/T Jeff Linkenbach: UFA Colts; terms unknown.

--DT Kyle Love: Not tendered as RFA by Jaguars; terms unknown.

--ILB Joe Mays: UFA Texans; $6M/2 yrs.

--CB Christopher Owens: UFA Dolphins; terms unknown.

--DT Vance Walker: UFA Raiders; $10.02M/3 yrs, $3M SB.

--OT J'Marcus Webb: UFA Vikings; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--T Branden Albert: UFA Dolphins; $46M/5 yrs, $8.5M SB/$25M guaranteed.

--G Jon Asamoah: UFA Falcons; $22.5M/5 yrs, $8M guaranteed.

--S Quintin Demps: UFA Giants; $1M/1 yr, $100,000 SB/$100,000 RB.

--CB Brandon Flowers (released).

--DT Tyson Jackson: UFA Falcons: $25M/5 yrs.

--S Kendrick Lewis: UFA Texans; $795,000/1 yr, $100,000 guaranteed.

--WR Dexter McCluster: UFA Titans; $12M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--CB Dunta Robinson (released).

--G Geoff Schwartz: UFA Giants; $16.8M/4 yrs, $3.2M SB/$6.2M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: Oakland Raiders

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC West

--2013: 4-12, 4th in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Napa Valley Marriott, Napa, Calif., 7/24, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .688 (2/32); non-division .513 (T13/32); overall .578 (1/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: A refurbished front seven. The Raiders let their best defensive lineman get away in free agency and needed 15 different players to record 38 sacks, but rebuilt their front seven to the point where it is the strongest part of their team.

--WEAKNESS: Tight end. The only area the Raiders failed to address in the offseason was tight end. Second-year pro Mychal Rivera has the inside track to start based on 38 receptions for 407 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, Rivera is more of a receiver than a blocker and is often split wide and goes in motion.

David Ausberry, who spent most of last season on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, has a similar skill set. Nick Kasa, in his second year out of Colorado, is in his third year at the position after being moved from the defensive line and is a project as an in-line tight end. Brian Leonhardt, on the practice squad last year, and undrafted free agents Jake Murphy and Scott Simonson round out the group.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Khalil Mack (1/5): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Derek Carr (2/36): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Gabe Jackson (3/81): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DT Justin Ellis (4/107): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Keith McGill (4/116): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB T.J. Carrie (7/219): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Shelby Harris (7/235): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Jonathan Dowling (7/247): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--G/T Khalif Barnes: Potential UFA; $1.2M/1 yrs, $100,000 SB.

--RB Darren McFadden: UFA; $1.75M/1 yr.

--DT Pat Sims: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Charles Woodson: UFA; $2.15M/1 yr, $1.15M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--OL Kevin Boothe: UFA Giants; $2.625M/2 yrs, $300,000 RB.

--CB Tarell Brown: UFA 49ers; $3.5M guaranteed/1 yr.

--T Austin Howard: UFA Jets; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--WR James Jones: UFA Packers; $10M/3 yrs, $3.65M guaranteed.

--RB Maurice Jones-Drew: UFA Jaguars; $7.5M/3 yrs, $1.2M guaranteed RB.

--T Donald Penn: FA Buccaneers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Carlos Rogers: FA Redskins; terms unknown.

--QB Matt Schaub (trade Texans).

--DT Antonio Smith: UFA Texans; $9M/2 yrs.

--DE Justin Tuck: UFA Giants; $11M/2 yrs.

--LB LaMarr Woodley: FA Steelers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--G Mike Brisiel (released).

--WR Jacoby Ford: UFA Jets; $740,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--DE Lamarr Houston: UFA Bears; $35M.5 yrs, $4.95M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--CB Mike Jenkins: UFA Buccaneers; $1.5M/1 yr.

--RB Rashad Jennings: UFA Giants; $10M/4 yrs, $2.25M/SB/$2.98M guaranteed.

--TE Jeron Mastrud: Not tendered as UFA/Bears; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--T Tony Pashos (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Tracy Porter: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--QB Terrelle Pryor (traded Seahawks).

--T Jared Veldheer: UFA Cardinals; $35M/5 yrs, $6.25M SB/$17M guaranteed.

--DT Vance Walker: UFA Chiefs; $10.02M/3 yrs, $3M SB.


CAMP PREVIEW: San Diego Chargers

--TSX Predicts: Tie for 2nd in AFC West

--2013: 9-7, 3rd in AFC West

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Chargers Park, San Diego, Calif., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .563 (3/32); overall .563 (T4/32).

--Primetime Games: 4 (1 Thursday, 1 Saturday, 1 Sunday night, 1 Monday night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Philip Rivers and the passing game. With Mike McCoy being a head coach with an offensive bent, and Philips being one of the NFL's most accurate quarterbacks, it is obvious the Chargers will again lean on their passing game.

Rivers will have another year in McCoy's quick-strike, up-tempo system and he's got a favorite receiver, Malcom Floyd, back from injury.

The Chargers will preach offensive balance, but this squad will only go as far as its passing game takes it.

--WEAKNESS: Cornerback. It's no mystery why the Chargers spent their top pick on cornerback Jason Verrett, even if he does stand a mere 5-foot-9. The Chargers were last in the AFC defending the pass. Consider this: the Chargers' cornerbacks combined for three interceptions last year. Two of the players collecting them, Derek Cox and Johnny Patrick, are no longer with the club.

The position was helped with the June signing of Brandon Flowers, who had been released by division rival Kansas City. Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall will also competing for playing time.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Jason Verrett (1/25): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jeremiah Attaochu (2/50): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Chris Watt (3/89): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Ryan Carrethers (5/165); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Marion Grice (6/201): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Tevin Reese (7/240): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--LB Donald Butler: Potential UFA; $51.8M/7 yrs, $11.15M SB/$12M OB 2017.

--CB Richard Marshall: UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--G Rich Ohrnberger: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--G/T Chad Rinehart: Potential UFA; $6M/2 yrs.

--S Darrell Stuckey: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

--ILB Reggie Walker: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--QB Kellen Clemens: UFA Rams; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Flowers: FA Chiefs; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Ghee: UFA Bengals; $1.65M/2 yrs.

--TE David Johnson: UFA Steelers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--RB Ronnie Brown (not tendered as UFA).

--CB Derek Cox (released).

--FB Le'Ron McClain (released).

--DT Cam Thomas: UFA Steelers; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

--QB Charlie Whitehurst: UFA Titans; $4.25M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$2M guaranteed.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC South Preview: Colts, Luck are the draw

After one of the biggest nosedives in NFL history, the Houston Texans should rebound from their 2-14 embarrassment and earn respectability, but not a division title.

That will once again go to the Indianapolis Colts, according to a survey The Sports Xchange's football staff, which expects Jacksonville and Tennessee to battle it out for the basement spot that Houston will vacate this year.

Here is a closer look at AFC South teams as training camp begins (teams listed alphabetically):

CAMP PREVIEW: Houston Texans

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC South

--2013: 2-14, 4th in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Houston Methodist Training Center, Houston, Tex., 7/21, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .458 (T19/32); non-division .431 (31/32); overall .441 (30/32).

--Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: The front seven with four former first-round picks -- end J.J. Watt, inside linebacker Brian Cushing, outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus -- and a former second-round pick, inside linebacker Brooks Reed.

--WEAKNESS: Defensive back. The Texans' defense ranked third worst out of 32 teams last season in average passing yards allowed per game (195.2). They went from bad to worse with the mid-season departure of veteran Ed Reed and rarely played as one. The offseason loss of veteran Danieal Manning doesn't help and leaves the Texans relying on a list of little-known names to tighten an erratic secondary in defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel's first year with the team.

Veteran safeties Kendrick Lewis and Chris Clemons were added via free agency, while Shiloh Keo and D.J. Swearinger will again compete for starting spots. At cornerback, returning players Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson will lead a young, inexperienced group.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Jadeveon Clowney (1/1); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (3/65): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Louis Nix III (3/83): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Tom Savage (4/135): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Jeoffrey Pagan (6/177): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Alfred Blue (6/181): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--FB Jay Prosch (6/211): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Andre Hal (7/216): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Lonnie Ballentine (7/256): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--TE Garrett Graham: UFA; $11.25M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--RB Andre Brown: UFA Giants; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Chris Clemons: UFA Dolphins; $2.7M/2 yrs, $450,000 SB.

--LB Akeem Dent (trade Falcons).

--QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: FA Titans; $7.5M/2 yrs, $4M guaranteed.

--S Kendrick Lewis: UFA Chiefs; $795,000/1 yr, $100,000 guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--TE Owen Daniels (released).

--S Danieal Manning (released).

--ILB Joe Mays: UFA Chiefs; $6M/2 yrs.

--DT Earl Mitchell: UFA Dolphins; $16M/4 yrs, $9M guaranteed.

--QB Matt Schaub (traded Raiders).

--ILB Darryl Sharpton: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--DE Antonio Smith: UFA Raiders; $9M/2 yrs.

--RB Ben Tate: UFA Browns; $4.7M/2 yrs, $1.5M SB/$2.5M guaranteed ($1.5M total potential per-game RB).

--QB T.J. Yates (traded Falcons).


CAMP PREVIEW: Indianapolis Colts

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC South

--2013: 11-5, 1st in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Anderson University, Anderson, Ind., 7/23, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .271 (32/32); non-division .525 (T10/32); overall .430 (32/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts will only go as far as the team's third-year signal-caller will take them. Luck has guided Indy to consecutive post-season appearances and a memorable come-from-behind win over Kansas City in a wild-card game last year.

--WEAKNESS: Center. A dozen plays. That's all the game experience second-year center Khaled Holmes had last season as a rookie with Indianapolis. Now with the decision to release two-year starter Samson Satele and not re-sign center/guard Mike McGlynn, Holmes will go into the 2014 season as the team's top option at the center position.

The depth includes a pair of undrafted rookies -- former Florida center Jonathan Harrison and a local product in ex-Indiana State center FN Lutz III. Guard Hugh Thornton could move in to play the position if needed and another guard, Donald Thomas (who is recovering from injuries suffered early last season), has limited experience at center.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--G Jack Mewhort (2/59): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Donte Moncrief (3/90): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jonathan Newsome (5/166): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Andrew Jackson (6/203): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Ulrick John (7/232): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--RB Ahmad Bradshaw: UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--S Sergio Brown: UFA; terms unknown.

--CB Vontae Davis: UFA; $39M/4 yrs, $20M guaranteed.

--CB Josh Gordy: RFA tendered at $1.431M with no compensation; $1.431M/1 yr.

--P Pat McAfee: Potential UFA; $14.5M/5 yrs, $1M SB.

--K Adam Vinatieri: Potential UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--S Mike Adams: Not tendered as UFA by Broncos; terms unknown.

--LB D'Qwell Jackson: FA Browns; $22/4 yrs, $11M guaranteed.

--DE Arthur Jones: UFA Ravens; $33M/5 yrs, $5.5M SB/$16M guaranteed.

--G Lance Louis: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs, $25,000 SB.

--LB Aaron Morgan: FA; $1.23M/2 yrs.

--WR Hakeem Nicks: UFA Giants; $3.975M/1 yr, $2M SB/$375,000 RB.

PLAYERS LOST

--ILB Pat Angerer (not tendered as UFA).

--S Antoine Bethea: UFA 49ers; $26M/4 yrs.

--ILB Kavell Conner: UFA Chargers; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Aubrayo Franklin (not tendered as UFA).

--WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: UFA Steelers; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--G/T Jeff Linkenbach: UFA Chiefs; terms unknown.

--G Mike McGlynn: UFA Redskins; terms unknown.

--C Samson Satele (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Jacksonville Jaguars

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC South

--2013: 4-12, 3rd in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Florida Blue Health & Wellness Practice Fields, Jacksonville, Fla., 7/21, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .417 (T25/32); non-division .475 (T22/32); overall .453 (29/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. The last two years, the Jaguars have been at or near the bottom of the league in sacks or putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That doesn't appear to be the case anymore. The free-agent signing of players like Chris Clemons, Ziggy Hood and Red Bryant brings instant credibility to this unit.

Andre Branch had a banner second-half season a year ago and if that continues, he could produce double-digit sack totals. For the Jaguars to be able to cut veteran defensive end Jason Babin shows that they have confidence in the remaining group of players along the line.

--WEAKNESS: Interior offensive line. The current starters at center and right guard were backup players a year ago with a combined five starts at different positions. Center Mike Brewster started three games at left guard, while current right guard starter Jacques McClendon was a two-game starter at left guard. So neither has started a game at his current position.

The backup players are a pair of mid-to-late-round draft picks last month. Brandon Linder was taken in the third round (No. 93 overall) to challenge McClendon at the right guard spot while Luke Bowanko was a sixth-round selection (No. 205 overall) who was the starting center at the University of Virginia. They may be starters in the future, but neither look ready to make a legitimate run at a starting job in 2014.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--QB Blake Bortles (1/3): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Marqise Lee (2/39): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Allen Robinson (2/61): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Brandon Linder (3/93): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Colvin (4/114): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Telvin Smith (5/144): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Chris Smith (5/159): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Luke Bowanko (6/205): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Storm Johnson (7/222): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--CB Will Blackmon: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Clay Harbor: Potential UFA; $3M/2 yrs, $1.35M SB.

--QB Chad Henne: Potential UFA; $8M/2 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--DT Sen'Derrick Marks: Potential UFA; $18M/4 yrs, $800,000 SB/$4.8M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--G Zane Beadles: UFA Broncos; $30M/5 yrs, $12.5M guaranteed.

--DE Red Bryant: FA Seahawks; 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Chris Clemons: FA Seahawks; terms unknown.

--RB Toby Gerhart: UFA Vikings; $10.5M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--DE Ziggy Hood: UFA Steelers; terms unknown.

--LB Dekoda Watson: UFA Buccaneers; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--LB Russell Allen (released/failed physical).

--DE Jason Babin (released).

--DT Brandon Deaderick: Not tendered as UFA/Saints; terms unknown.

--RB Justin Forsett (released).

--QB Blaine Gabbert (traded 49ers).

--RB Maurice Jones-Drew: UFA Raiders; $7.5M/3 yrs, $1.2M guaranteed RB.

--C Brad Meester (retired).

--G Uche Nwaneri (released).

--G Will Rackley (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Tennessee Titans

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC South

--2013: 7-9, 2nd in AFC South

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Saint Thomas Sports Park, Nashville, Tenn., 7/25, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .354 (31/32); non-division .488 (T18/32); overall .438 (31/32).

--Primetime Games: 2 (1 Thursday, 1 Monday Night)

--STRENGTH: Offensive Line. The Titans have gone to great lengths to rebuild an offensive line eroded over the past several years, and this unit -- on paper at least -- would appear to be the strength of the team.

The Titans signed left guard Andy Levitre last year as a free agent and drafted right guard Chance Warmack and center Brian Schwenke. This year they added free-agent right tackle Michael Oher and took future left tackle Taylor Lewan in the first round as an eventual successor to stalwart Michael Roos, who is entering the final year of his contract.

--WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. There is talent at the top of the depth chart with shifty Kendall Wright in the slot, and steady Nate Washington on the outside. Justin Hunter also has big-play potential. But after that, there are just unproven names.

Michael Preston, a former practice-squad player, has 10 career catches. Marc Mariani, a former Pro-Bowl pick as a return man, has just five catches and has spent the past two seasons on injured reserve. The Titans added Brian Robiskie, who failed to produce elsewhere. So quarterback Jake Locker hopes to find a couple more reliable receivers to help him in Ken Whisenhunt's new offensive system.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

UNSIGNED DRAFT CHOICES (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--T Taylor Lewan (1/11).

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--RB Bishop Sankey (2/54): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT DaQuan Jones (4/112): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Marqueston Huff (4/122): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Avery Williamson (5/151): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Zach Mettenberger (6/178): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--RB Jackie Battle: Potential UFA; $855,000/1 yr.

--DT Antonio Johnson: UFA; terms unknown.

--WR/KR Marc Mariani: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--DE Ropati Pitoitua: Potential UFA; $9.6M/3 yrs, $2.175M SB.

--S Bernard Pollard: Potential UFA; $6.3M/2 yrs, $850,000 SB.

--C/G Chris Spencer: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--RB Leon Washington: UFA; 1 yr, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--TE Dorin Dickerson: Not tendered as RFA by Lions; terms unknown.

--WR Dexter McCluster: UFA Chiefs; $12M/3 yrs, $4.5M guaranteed.

--OT Michael Oher: UFA Ravens; $20M/4 yrs, $4M SB/$9.35M guaranteed.

--LB Shaun Phillips: UFA Broncos; $6M/2 yrs.

--QB Charlie Whitehurst: UFA Chargers; $4.25M/2 yrs, $1M SB/$2M guaranteed.

--LB Wesley Woodyard: UFA Broncos; $16M/4 yrs.

PLAYERS LOST

--K Rob Bironas (released).

--WR Kenny Britt: UFA Rams; $1.4M/1 yr, $550,000 guaranteed.

--QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (released).

--RB Chris Johnson (released).

--FB Quinn Johnson (released).

--T David Stewart (failed physical).

--CB Alterraun Verner: UFA Buccaneers; $26.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.