The Bum's NFL Preseason Previews of Teams - News - Notes - Selections and Whatever !

[StarDust Bum]

AFC North Preview: Bengals best of rugged bunch

Rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel may be causing commotion selling jerseys, but The Sports Xchange isn't buying into his Cleveland Browns, picked to repeat in last place of the AFC North.

That other Ohio team in Cincinnati is the choice here to outbattle the Pittsburgh Steelers for the division title ahead of the Baltimore Ravens.

Here is a closer look at NFC North teams as training camp begins:

CAMP PREVIEW: Baltimore Ravens

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC North

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report):Under Armour Performance Center, Owings Mills, Md., 7/16, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .479 (T17/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .461 (28/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Outside linebacker. With bookend Pro Bowl outside linebackers in Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, this is obviously a strong part of the team. They combined for 19.5 sacks last season. Healthy this season, both Suggs and Dumervil appear ready for bigger things this season.

--WEAKNESS: Offensive tackle. Right offensive tackle is an unproven spot where 2013 fifth-round draft pick Rick Wagner is currently the starter. He is competing with Ryan Jensen for the starting job.

Wagner struggled in limited action last season and allowed three sacks to Denver Broncos outside linebacker Shaun Phillips in his first NFL game. If Wagner proves he's capable of holding down the position, the Ravens won't have to seek a veteran blocker to upgrade the position or shift Kelechi Osemele from left guard.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB C.J. Mosley (1/17): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DT Timmy Jernigan (2/48): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--S Terrence Brooks (3/79): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Crockett Gillmore (3/99): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Brent Urban (4/134): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (4/138): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C/G John Urschel (5/175): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Keith Wenning (6/194): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Michael Campanaro (7/218): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--NT Terrence Cody: UFA; $730,000/1 yr.

--WR Jacoby Jones: UFA; $14M/4 yrs, $4.5M SB.

--T Eugene Monroe: UFA; $37.5M/5 yrs, $19M guaranteed.

--TE Dennis Pitta: Potential UFA; $32M/5 yrs, $16M guaranteed.

--LB Daryl Smith: UFA; $16.1M/4 yrs.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--TE Owen Daniels: FA Texans; $1M/1 yr.

--RB Justin Forsett: FA Jaguars; $730,000/1 yr.

--G Will Rackley: FA Jaguars; terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Ross: Not tendered as UFA by Giants; terms unknown.

--WR Steve Smith: FA Panthers; $10.5M/3 yrs, $3.5M SB.

--S Darian Stewart: UFA Rams; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--C/G Jeremy Zuttah (trade Buccaneers).

PLAYERS LOST

--TE Dallas Clark: Not tendered as UFA/retired.

--TE Ed Dickson: UFA Panthers; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--CB Corey Graham: UFA Bills; $16M/4 yrs.

--S James Ihedigbo: UFA Lions; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Arthur Jones: UFA Colts; $33M/5 yrs, $5.5M SB/$16M guaranteed.

--FB Vonta Leach (released).

--LB Jameel McClain (released).

--OT Michael Oher: UFA Titans; $20M/4 yrs, $4M SB/$9.35M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIW: Cincinnati Bengals

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC North

--2013: 111-5, 1st in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio, 7/21, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .417 (T25/32); non-division .500 (T16/32); overall .469 (T23/32).

---Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 1 Sunday Night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Coordinator Hue Jackson and the offense. The players have responded to the new energy in the offensive room as Jackson replaced Jay Gruden, now the head coach in Washington.

Players are energized and the numbers of Jackson's success running the offense in Oakland (top 10 both years he was on staff) back up his attitude.

The offense needed an identity and mentality to stand behind and the physicality of the running game has the linemen smiling and Giovani Bernard featured. Both of those are great for the hopes of the Bengals.

--WEAKNESS: Tight end. At this point last year, tight end was supposed to be the game-changing strength of the team with Jermaine Gresham coming off his second straight Pro Bowl and a first-round pick dedicated to Tyler Eifert.

The two-tight end set was expected to power the offense to the next level. Both played well and combined for 85 receptions, but two injuries forced them out of the offseason program. Expectations are both will be healthy for training camp, but lingering injuries cause concern.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--CB Darqueze Dennard (1/24): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Jeremy Hill (2/55): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Will Clarke (3/88): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Russell Bodine (4/111): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB A.J. McCarron (5/164): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Marquis Flowers (6/212): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR James Wright (7/239): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Lavelle Westbrooks (7/252): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Taylor Mays: UFA; terms unknown.

--G Mike Pollak: Potential UFA; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR/KR Brandon Tate: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--QB Jason Campbell: FA Browns; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Danieal Manning: FA Texans; terms unknown.

--OT Marshall Newhouse: UFA Packers; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--T Anthony Collins: UFA Buccaneers; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--C Kyle Cook (released).

--CB Brandon Ghee: UFA Chargers; $1.65M/2 yrs.

--LB James Harrison (released).

--WR Andrew Hawkins: RFA Browns (tendered at $1.431M with no compensation); Bengals didn't match offer of $13.6M/4 yrs.

--QB Josh Johnson (released).

--DE Michael Johnson: UFA Buccaneers; $43.75M/5 yrs, $16M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: Cleveland Browns

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC North

--2013: 4-12, 4th in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Cleveland Browns Training Facility, Berea, Ohio, 7/23, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .563 (T8/32); non-division .406 (32/32); overall .465 (T26/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defense. Coach Mike Pettine, as a former defensive coordinator, is trying to model his team after the Seahawks and 49ers. He is expecting the defense to carry the load this season, particularly the pass rushing linebackers -- Paul Kruger, Barkevious Mingo and Jabaal Sheard, who at times will line up as an end.

Sheard led the Browns in sacks each of his first three years in the league. He is excited about the season ahead because he is playing the role of Mario Williams of the Buffalo Bills. Pettine was the Bills defensive coordinator last year.

--WEAKNESS: Wide receiver. Josh Gordon's season is up in the despite reports that his latest July 4 holiday DUI arrest may have charges reduced based on blood alcohol being .09 against legal limit of .08. But he will surely be suspended for multiple offenses, it is just a matter of how long he will be absent. League is expected to rule within two weeks on issues for reportedly testing positive for marijuana as well as the DUI. Gordon caught 87 passes last year and led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards last year.

Davone Bess (42 catches) and Greg Little (41) were cut in the offseason. They were the top three pass-catchers among Browns wide receivers in 2013. What is left are these candidates: Miles Austin, Nate Burleson, Andrew Hawkins and Anthony Armstrong. The problem is those four players caught a combined 75 passes last year; Armstrong, 31 years old, was out of football. Austin caught 24 passes and Hawkins only 12.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

UNSIGNED DRAFT CHOICES (RD/Overall PICK)

--CB Justin Gilbert (1/8).

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--QB Johnny Manziel (1/22): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Joel Bitonio (2/35): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Christian Kirksey (3/71): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB Terrance West (3/94): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Pierre Desir (4/127): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--K Billy Cundiff: Potential UFA; $1.02M/1 yr.

--C Alex Mack: Transition FA (Browns matched Jaguars offer); $42M/5 yrs, $26M guaranteed.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Anthony Armstrong: FA; terms unknown.

--WR Miles Austin: FA Cowboys; terms unknown.

--CB Aaron Berry: UFA Jets; terms unknown.

--WR Nate Burleson: FA Lions; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--LB Karlos Dansby: UFA Cardinals; $24M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--TE Jim Dray: UFA Cardinals; $5.625M/3 yrs, $2.25M guaranteed.

--WR Andrew Hawkins: RFA Bengals (tendered at $1.431M with no compensation); Bengals didn't match offer of $13.6M/4 yrs.

--T/G Paul McQuistan: UFA Seahawks; $3M/2 yrs, $750,000 guaranteed.

--RB Ben Tate: UFA Texans; $4.7M/2 yrs, $1.5M SB/$2.5M guaranteed ($1.5M total potential per-game RB).

--S Donte Whitner: UFA 49ers; $28M/4 yrs, $13M guaranteed.

PLAYERS LOST

--WR Davone Bess (released).

--QB Jason Campbell (released).

--LB Quentin Groves (released).

--LB D'Qwell Jackson (released).

--G Shawn Lauvao: UFA Redskins; $17M/4 yrs.

--RB Willis McGahee (not tendered as UFA).

--S T.J. Ward: UFA Broncos; $22.5M/4 yrs, $14M guaranteed.

--QB Brandon Weeden (released).


CAMP PREVIEW: Pittsburgh Steelers

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC North

--2013: 8-8, tied for 2nd in AFC North

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Saint Vincent College, Latrobe, Pa., 7/25, 7/25

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .479 (T17/32); non-division .463 (27/32); overall .469 (T23/32).

Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 2 Sunday Night, 2 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off one of his best seasons. He passed for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns, and was most productive down the stretch when the coaches committed to the no-huddle offense. Expect similar or better production this season if the no-huddle is implemented from the start.

The Steelers have leaned on Roethlisberger and the passing game for the last few years because the running game stalled. New line coach Mike Munchak was hired to fix the problems in the running game. If he does, Roethlisberger can have an even better 2014 because the play-action threat would return.

--WEAKNESS: Cornerback. The Steelers' issues at cornerback were hidden for years because of a strong pass rush. The lack of a pass rush the past few years has exposed their corners.

Ike Taylor had his worst season in 2013 and he is not likely to improve at age 34. Cortez Allen did just OK as the other starter. William Gay, the nickel back who returned after a brief stay with Arizona, probably played the best of the group last season.

Pittsburgh did little to help the position, signing 5-foot-9 Brice McCain after he was cut by the Texans and drafting Shaquille Richardson in the fifth round.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--LB Ryan Shazier (1/15): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Stephon Tuitt (2/46): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB/WR Dri Archer (3/97): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Martavis Bryant (4/118): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Shaquille Richardson (5/157): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T/G Wesley Johnson (5/173): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jordan Zumwalt (6/192): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--NT Daniel McCullers (6/215): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Rob Blanchflower (7/230): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--S Will Allen: Potential UFA; terms unknown.

--LS Greg Warren: UFA; terms unknown.

--LB Jason Worilds: Transition FA; $9.754M/1 yr.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--RB LeGarrette Blount: UFA Patriots; $3.85M/2 yrs, $950,000 SB.

--WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: UFA Colts; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--S Mike Mitchell: UFA Panthers; terms unknown.

--WR Lance Moore: FA Saints; $3M/2 yrs.

--P Adam Podlesh: FA Bears; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--DT Cam Thomas: UFA Chargers; $4M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

PLAYERS LOST

--S Ryan Clark: UFA Redskins; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Jerricho Cotchery: UFA Panthers; 2 yrs, $2.25M SB.

--RB Jonathan Dwyer: UFA Cardinals; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--LB Larry Foote (released).

--DE Ziggy Hood: UFA Jaguars; terms unknown.

--TE David Johnson: UFA Chargers; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Brett Keisel (not tendered as UFA).

--WR Emmanuel Sanders: UFA Broncos; $15M/3 yrs, $6M guaranteed.

--LB LaMarr Woodley (released/post-June 1 designation)

[StarDust Bum]

AFC East Preview: No surprise, Pats favored

As long as Bill Belichick is coaching a healthy quarterback Tom Brady, the New England Patriots will probably be favored to win the AFC East. That is the bold prediction by The Sports Xchange football staff in this training camp preview.

The New York Jets are pegged to move up to No. 2 and Miami is rated last, but perhaps NFL/TV execs may know otherwise: the Dolphins will have five games on prime time, as many as the Patriots.

Well, not counting the postseason.

Here is a closer look at AFC East teams as camps begin (teams listed alphabetically):


CAMP PREVIEW: Buffalo Bills

--TSX Predicts: 3rd in AFC East

--2013: 6-10, 4th in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): St. John Fisher College, Pittsford, N.Y., 7/16, 7/19

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 1 (1 Thursday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. The Bills have three Pro Bowl players up front -- tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, and end Mario Williams, plus end Jerry Hughes. While setting a team record with 57 sacks in 2013, those four players combined for 41 sacks, including a team-high 13 by Mario Williams. However, Dareus has been challenged by off-field issues this year.

The Bills can also bring in players such as veterans Alan Branch and Manny Lawson, and they also like young players Stefan Charles and Corbin Bryant, both of whom saw playing time at the end of last season. Under new coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Bills might not blitz as much as they did when Mike Pettine was scheming the defense, but if the front four can continue to generate pressure without help, Schwartz won't have to send linebackers or safeties.

--WEAKNESS: Quarterback. Buffalo used the 16th pick of the first round in the 2013 draft to select EJ Manuel, and they made him the starter at the beginning of training camp. Once veteran Kevin Kolb was lost for the year due to a concussion, there was never a doubt who the starting quarterback would be on opening day.

But Manuel couldn't stay healthy and he played only 10 games due to separate knee injuries. So nobody is sure whether he is truly the Bills' quarterback of the future. And if he gets hurt again, the Bills have one of the worst backup situations in the league -- journeyman Thad Lewis, who won two starts last season, is No. 2, and undrafted second-year man Jeff Tuel is battling another journeyman, Dennis Dixon, for third string.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--WR Sammy Watkins (1/4): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Cyrus Kouandjio (2/44): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Preston Brown (3/73): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Ross Cockrell (4/109): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Cyril Richardson (5/153): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Randell Johnson (7/221): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Seantrel Henderson (7/237): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--K Dan Carpenter: UFA; 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Scott Chandler; UFA; terms unknown.

--P Brian Moorman: Potential UFA; $955,000/1 yr.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Ramses Barden: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs.

--RB Bryce Brown (trade Eagles).

--RB Anthony Dixon: UFA 49ers; $3.5M/3 yrs, $750,000 SB.

--QB Dennis Dixon: FA; $1.475M/2 yrs.

--CB Corey Graham: UFA Ravens; $16M/4 yrs.

--LB Keith Rivers: UFA Giants; $4.05M/2 yrs, $1M SB.

--LB Brandon Spikes: UFA Patriots; $3M/1 yr, $900,000 SB.

--G Chris Williams: UFA Rams; $13.5M/4 yrs, $5.5M guaranteed.

--WR Mike Williams (trade Buccaneers).

PLAYERS LOST

--S Jairus Byrd: UFA Saints; $54M/6 yrs, $11M SB/$27.9M guaranteed.

--DE Alex Carrington: UFA Rams; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--WR Stevie Johnson (traded 49ers).


CAMP PREVIEW: Miami Dolphins

--TSX Predicts: 4th in AFC East

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Doctors Hospital Training Facility, Davie, Fla., 7/24, 7/24

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .542 (T11/32); non-division .488 (T18/32); overall .508 (12/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Wide receiver. The Dolphins might not send a wide receiver to the Pro Bowl, but they have quality and they're deep. Among starters Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson they have proven veterans. Behind them are rookie Jarvis Landry and youngsters Rishard Matthews and Armon Binns.

A lot of the wide receivers' success will depend on quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offensive line's ability to protect Tannehill. But as a group, the wide receivers are grown men.

--WEAKNESS: Right tackle. Rookie right tackle Ja'Wuan James gets the nod because his position is so important to a unit that allowed a NFL-worst 58 sacks last season. James, Miami's first-round pick from Tennessee, was decent during OTAs, but he's still a rookie playing a pivotal position.

Other positions in the running for weakest were right guard (Dallas Thomas) and left guard (Shelley Smith), both jobs held by players who have never been fulltime starters. But considering James will have to take on a growing number of fierce pass rushers, he's in the spotlight for now.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--T Ja'Wuan James (1/19): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jarvis Landry (2/63): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Billy Turner (3/67); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Walt Aikens (4/125); 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Arthur Lynch (5/155): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jordan Tripp (5/171): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Matt Hazel (6/190): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Terrence Fede (7/234): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--CB Brent Grimes: Potential UFA; $32.025M/4 yrs, $6M SB/$16.95M guaranteed.

--DT Randy Starks: UFA; $10M/2 yrs.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--T Branden Albert: UFA Chiefs; $46M/5 yrs, $8.5M SB/$25M guaranteed.

--G Daryn Colledge: FA Cardinals; terms unknown.

--S Louis Delmas: FA Lions; 1 yr, terms unknown.

--CB Cortland Finnegan: FA Rams; $11M/2 yrs.


CAMP PREVIEW: New England Patriots

--TSX Predicts: 1st in AFC East

--2013: 12-4, 1st in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass., 7/20, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 5 (1 Thursday, 3 Sunday night, 1 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick. While it may be overly simplistic and obvious, New England continues to be driven to success by its quarterback and coach. Those are the two most important aspects for an NFL team, and New England still ranks among the elite teams in the league despite the duo's 14-year run together.

Patriots fans will hope that New England can be a top-five unit on both offense and defense, buoyed by Rob Gronkowski in the passing attack and Darrelle Revis on defense. Maybe, maybe not, but Belichick and Brady have proven together they can lead the way to an AFC East title --five years in a row. The foundation for where the Patriots will go this season remains with the man wearing No. 12 and the man in the gray hoodie directing it all.

--WEAKNESS: Strong safety. While the Patriots have lacked a true strong safety since the departure of Rodney Harrison, there are questions as to whether New England has two starting caliber safeties of any style for 2014. Devin McCourty returns at free safety, while second-year former third-round pick Duron Harmon is penciled in at the other spot.

Harmon started three games as a rookie a year ago filling in for Steve Gregory, who started 23 games in his two years in New England before being cut this spring. Harmon impressed head coach Bill Belichick with his communication skills and football IQ last fall, but if he's not ready to be a full-time, productive starter there will be a hole in the back end. Patrick Chung returns for depth and special teams and second-year cornerback Logan Ryan may get reps at safety.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--DT Dominique Easley (1/29): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2/62): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--C Bryan Stork (4/105): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--RB James White (4/130): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--T Cameron Fleming (4/140): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Jon Halapio (6/179): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--DE Zach Moore (6/198): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Jemea Thomas (6/206): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jeremy Gallon (7/244): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--WR Julian Edelman: UFA; $17M/4 yrs, $8M guaranteed.

--TE Michael Hoomanawanui: Potential UFA; 2 yr, terms unknown.

--C Ryan Wendell: UFA; 2 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--LB James Anderson: Not tendered as UFA by Bears; terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Browner: UFA Seahawks; $15.15M/3 yrs, $1M guaranteed.

--S Patrick Chung: FA Eagles; terms unknown.

--WR Brandon LaFell: UFA Panthers; 3 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Darrelle Revis: FA Buccaneers; $32M/2 yrs, $10M SB/$12M RB 2015.

--DE Will Smith: FA Saints; terms unknown.

PLAYERS LOST

--RB LeGarrette Blount: UFA Steelers; $3.85M/2 yrs, $950,000 SB.

--NT Isaac Sopoaga (released).

--LB Brandon Spikes: UFA Bills; $3M/1 yr, $900,000 SB.

--CB Aqib Talib: UFA Broncos; $57M/6 yrs, $5M SB/$26M guaranteed.


CAMP PREVIEW: New York Jets

--TSX Predicts: 2nd in AFC East

--2013: 8-8, Tied for 2nd in AFC East

--Training Camp Dates (rookies, vets report): SUNY Cortland, Cortland, N.Y., 7/22, 7/23

--2014 Opponents Win Percentage in 2013: Division .583 (T6/32); non-division .450 (T28/32); overall .500 (14/32).

--Primetime Games: 3 (1 Thursday, 2 Monday)

--STRENGTH: Defensive line. Few teams in the league have a 1-2 punch like Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, who can wreak havoc with opposing running backs and quarterbacks. Their dominance creates a trickle down effect for the rest of an otherwise average defense.

--WEAKNESS: Guard. The Jets barely managed last season with workmanlike efforts from rookie left guard Brian Winters and veteran right guard Willie Colon, which was a good thing, since their backups were annual tease Vladimir Ducasse and journeyman Caleb Schlauderaff.

But Colon was absent this spring due to a torn biceps suffered in the season finale and a knee injury during workouts. This magnifies the Jets' lack of depth at the position. Will Campbell and Oday Aboushi, a pair of 2013 draftees who were inactive for every game last season, are getting extended reps along with fourth-round pick Dakota Dozier.

Winters is also getting time at right guard this spring, which might be an indication of a lack of faith in alternatives and concern about Colon's ability to be full strength in September.

KEY PERSONNEL MOVES

DRAFT CHOICES SIGNED (RD/OVERALL PICK)

--S Calvin Pryor (1/18): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--TE Jace Amaro (2/49): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Jalen Saunders (4/104): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Shaquelle Evans (4/115): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--G Dakota Dozier (4/137): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Jeremiah George (5/154): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--CB Brandon Dixon (6/195): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--WR Quincy Enunwa (6/209): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Ikemefuna Enemkpali (6/210): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--QB Tajh Boyd (6/213): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

--LB Trevor Reilly (7/233): 4 yrs, terms unknown.

PLAYERS RE-SIGNED

--G Willie Colon: UFA; $2M/1 yr.

--TE Jeff Cumberland: Potential UFA; $5.7M/3 yrs, $1M RB 2014.

--K Nick Folk: Franchise FA; $12M/4 yrs, $2.1M RB.

--LB Calvin Pace: UFA; $5M/2 yrs, $1M RB.

PLAYERS ACQUIRED

--WR Eric Decker: UFA Broncos; $36.25M/5 yrs, $7.5M SB/$15M guaranteed.

--CB Ras-I Dowling: FA; $1.23M/2 yrs.

--WR Jacoby Ford: UFA Raiders; $740,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--T Breno Giacomini: UFA Seahawks; $18M/4 yrs, $2.5M SB/$7M guaranteed.

--RB Chris Johnson: FA Titans; $8M/2 yrs.

--CB Dimitri Patterson: FA Dolphins; $3M/1 yr, $1M SB.

--QB Michael Vick: UFA Eagles; $4M guaranteed/1 yr, $2M SB.

PLAYERS LOST

--CB Aaron Berry: UFA Browns; terms unknown.

--CB Antonio Cromartie (released).

--G Vladimir Ducasse: UFA Vikings; $795,000/1 yr, $65,000 SB.

--WR Santonio Holmes (released).

--T Austin Howard: UFA Raiders; $30M/5 yrs, $15M guaranteed.

--S Ed Reed (not tendered as UFA).

--QB Mark Sanchez (released).

--TE Kellen Winslow (not tendered as UFA).

[StarDust Bum]

Preseason Report - NFC

July 25, 2014


Coaches · AFC · NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett

Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)

Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.

New York Giants

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter

A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles

Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne

There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason games. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.

Washington Redskins

Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy

Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may went to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)

In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.

Detroit Lions

Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)

In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)

Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseasons. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.

Minnesota Vikings

Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)

With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)

One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note. However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseasons we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason game the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb

A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)

A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week 3 & 4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney

In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)

Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseasons games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.

San Francisco 49ers

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)

Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseasons as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels

Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.

St. Louis Rams

Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis

In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.

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Preseason Report - AFC

July 25, 2014


AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis

Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.

New York Jets

Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)

The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)

This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.

New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)

Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)

With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)

The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott

With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.

Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh

Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseasons. Strong trend to watch for again this year!!!

AFC South

Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien

Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)

O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.

Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano

Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley

Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as its a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.

Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt

Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid

Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.

Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen

Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.

San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy

Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.

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Preseason Report - Coaches

July 25, 2014

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

As mentioned above coaching is key and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes:

This season we have seven coaching changes coming into the 2014 season.

Here is this year’s list:

Cleveland Browns - Mike Pettine - Pettine joins the Browns after spending 2013 as the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills and the 2009-12 seasons as the defensive coordinator for the New York Jets.

Detroit Lions - Jim Caldwell - He was a head coach or coordinator in three Super Bowls with Indianapolis (XLI and XLIV) and Baltimore (XLVII) and won two Super Bowl titles (Indianapolis and Baltimore).

Houston Texans - Bill O’Brien comes in as the new head coach for the Texans – O’Brien was a member of the Patriots' coaching staff from 2007 where he rose from offensive assistant his first season to wide receivers coach in 2008 and then quarterbacks coach from 2009-10 prior to his promotion to offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in 2011. He spent the last two year as the Penn State head coach.

Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer takes over as the Vikings new head coach - A veteran defensive coordinator, Zimmer enters his 21st season on an NFL sideline, the past 14 working as defensive coordinator for Cincinnati (2008-13), Atlanta (2007) and Dallas (2000-06).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lovie Smith is the new Tampa Bay head coach –Smith joins the Buccaneers after having spent nine seasons as the Chicago Bears head coach.

Tennessee Titans - Ken Whisenhunt is the new Tennessee head coach - Whisenhunt brings 17 seasons of NFL coaching experience to the Titans, including six years (2007-12) as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals.

Washington Redskins - Jay Gruden is the new Washington head coach – Gruden has been the Bengals offensive coordinator the past three seasons.

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Handicapping Win Totals

July 26, 2014

2014 NFL Season Win Totals… The New Math

Thinking about investing in the NFL season win totals market this year? If so, my best advice to you is to make your approach with a different mind-set – from a Vegas perspective. In other words out with the old and in with the new.

Strength of Schedule

At first glance, most players will initially look at a team’s projected strength of schedule – the key word here being ‘projected’ – when sizing up a team’s win potential for the year.

The most common formula in determining strength of schedule is adding the win-loss record of each opponent from the previous season.

For instance: Oakland’s foes for the 2014 season combined to go 160-116 last year for a combined win percentage of .560, whereas Indianapolis’ opponents this season were 113-150 during the 2013 campaign.

Hence, by doing the math, the Raiders appear set to take on the league’s most difficult itinerary, with the Colts taking on the softest.

SOS – The New Math

On paper, strength of schedule numbers do not lie. On the field, though, it’s an entirely different story.

A better gauge of calculating each team’s strength of schedule is to look at each team’s opponent for what they are expected to be – not what they were last year.

We do this by weighing each opponent’s estimated season win totals for the upcoming year. The higher the grand total, the more difficult the mission.

These are the season win totals set by the sharpest oddsmakers in the industry. These anticipated win totals much better represent each team’s probability of wins and losses for the season ahead as opposed to the itinerary they faced the previous campaign.

For instance, using the opening season win totals posted by Jay Kornegay of the SuperBook in Las Vegas, Arizona will actually face the most difficult schedule in 2014 with opponents’ overall projected season win totals collectively adding up to 138 victories this season.

On the flip side, Houston brings up the rear, going up against opponents with a Charmin-like 118 collective season wins for the year.

Turning Over a New Page

Make no mistake about it. Avoiding fumbles and other turnovers is the single most predictive measure of success in the NFL.

And when it comes to turnovers in the NFL, returning to the norm is also a common practice for teams that were heavily on one side or the other of the seasonal equation.

Consider: over the last half dozen years, there have been a total of 23 losing teams that finished the season on the plus-side of overall turnovers. Only five of them fell to a worse win-loss record the following season (14 improvements and 4 with identical records).

This year finds Buffalo, St. Louis and Tampa Bay meeting the same criteria.

On the other side of the coin, 17 teams concluded a season with a winning record despite finishing on the minus-side of the turnover ledger. Only four of them managed to improve on their record the next year (10 improvements and 3 with matching records).

This year’s cast of characters staring at a very slippery slope includes Arizona, Green Bay and San Diego.

Losers to Winners and Vice-Versa

In closing, one final thought when pondering the combination of turnovers last year to win totals in the NFL this season.

Looking back over the past six seasons, the top three teams in net plus-turnovers over the course of the regular season declined an average of -2.4 games straight up, and -2.2 games against the spread the following season.

This year finds Seattle (+20), Kansas City (+16) and Indianapolis (+13) as the turnover kings in 2013.

Conversely, the bottom three teams in net minus-turnovers the previous season improved by an average of +2.3 games straight up, and +2.7 games against the spread the following campaign.

The three leading candidates to wear the silver slipper this year are Houston (-20), the N.Y. Giants (-17) and the N.Y. Jets (-14).

So before you take the plunge this NFL season, try acquainting yourself with The New Math. You’ll be glad you did!

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Three live long-shot QBs to top the NFL in passing yards

July could be the toughest month for NFL bettors. Training camps are open, the preseason is almost here, and there are long lists of team and player props growing everyday at your sportsbook of choice. Will Week 1 ever come?

July is like a Christmas Eve that lasts 31 days.

In order to help get your through those hot sleepless summer nights, we’re breaking down some of the most popular NFL player props on the board – starting with the “Most Passing Yards” odds from Sportsbook.ag.

Here are three "Most Passing Yard" wagers – outside of the top favorites (Peyton Manning +300, Drew Brees +400, Aaron Rodgers +600, Matt Stafford +700) – that present solid value heading into the 2014 NFL season:

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (+1,800)

Luck was seventh in the league in passing last season, tossing for 4,596 yards, but had his top target taken away from him when WR Reggie Wayne went down with a season-ending injury in Week 7. The Colts added WR Hakeem Nicks and drafted WR Donte Moncrief in the third round, bolstering a receiving corps that also features breakout star WR T.Y. Hilton and a potent TE combo in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.

Outside of matchups with Cincinnati and Houston, Indianapolis doesn’t face any elite pass defenses in 2014, setting Luck up for a big season in Year 3. The Colts will be at the top of the AFC South and more than likely contending for home field in the conference. A Week 1 showdown in Denver, versus Peyton Manning, could get the ball rolling on Luck’s career year.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (+2,000)

Ha, ha, ha. Laugh it up. Get all the “Tony Oh-No” jokes out. No seriously, we’ll wait…

There. You done?

Romo threw the ball 535 times in 2013, a drop from his 648 pass attempts in 2012. Sure, he missed the final game of the year and RB DeMarco Murray demanded his share of touches, but Dallas still runs a pass-happy offense as long as Jason Garrett is bumbling the playbook. Remember, Romo passed for 4,903 yards in 2012 – just 46 yards behind Manning.

Romo is coming off back surgery but says he’s going to be better than ever this season. He certainly has the talent around him to challenge for the passing title. Top receiver Dez Bryant is emerging as an elite force, TE Jason Witten is about as secure a safety blanket as you can find, and even Murray is a threat to catch passes. And with a defense that gave up a record number of yards last year, Romo will be called upon to carry the team most weeks.

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (+2,500)

There’s no denying the Eagles offense is going to put up some monster numbers in 2014. Philadelphia is another year into Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack and Foles is the man in Philly, after splitting snaps with Mike Vick and missing time with a concussion in 2013.

Despite those setbacks, Foles led the league in yards per pass (8.8), was sixth in passing touchdowns (29), and threw for 3,086 yards despite attempting only 350 passes – tied for 25th (with Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Eagles were among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL (passing only 52.97 percent of the time) and some of that had to do with the instability at QB.

Philadelphia did drop home-run hitter DeSean Jackson this offseason, who topped the team with 1,385 yards receiving in 2013. But, as Kelly proved in his time at Oregon, this is a system that can plug in random parts and produce. Expect stud running back LeSean McCoy to catch more passes and rookie WR Jordan Matthews to emerge as a big weapon for the Eagles – all the while boosting Foles’ stats.