Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at Indiana
The Heat look to bounce back from their 107-96 loss in Game 1 as they face a Pacers team that is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 20

Game 505-506: Miami at Indiana (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.284; Indiana 121.360
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Over


NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, May 20

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MIAMI (62 - 30) at INDIANA (65 - 31) - 5/20/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 13-12 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-11 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
14 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, May 20

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, 8:30 ET
Miami: 26-14 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite
Indiana: 6-19 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, May 20

Pacers shot 52% in Game 1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures. Home side won all five Miami-Indiana games this season; Heat lost last five visits to Indiana by 7-6-1-12-11 points. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Miami is 8-3 in playoffs, 3-2 on road; they're 6-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-5 in playoffs, 5-0 vs spread when they are getting points. Under is 29-20 in Pacers' home games this season.

Over is 44-30 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 25-49 in playoffs this season.




NBA

Tuesday, May 20

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANA
Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 13 games



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NBA

Tuesday, May 20

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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers
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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2, 184)

The real Indiana Pacers are in the process of standing up, and the Miami Heat are going to need stand up right alongside. The Heat will attempt to draw even in the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game 2 on Tuesday. Indiana limped through the last half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs but was clearly the dominant team in Game 1, leading wire-to-wire as Miami struggled to get stops.

The Pacers enjoyed their highest-scoring game of the postseason with the 107-96 Game 1 victory and got at least 15 points from all five starters. “It’s a good start to the series but it’s just a good start, that’s all it is,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ve got to expect a great fight in Game 2.” The Heat lost for just the second time in the playoffs but remained unconcerned and confident moving forward. “They took care of business in Game 1, but we’ll figure it out for Game 2,” said LeBron James, who put up 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals for Miami.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Heat as 2-point road faves. The line moved to -2.5 but has settled back at the original number. The total hasn't moved off 184.

INJURY REPORT: Pacers - F Evan Turner (Probable, illness), C Andrew Bynum (out for season).

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami stuck with the small lineup that served it well in the semifinals instead of trying to match Indiana’s bigger starters. That plan left center Chris Bosh along the perimeter, where he went 0-of-5 from 3-point range and finished with just nine points, and put him on bruising Roy Hibbert defensively. “That’s probably us at our worst defensively,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “You have to give (the Pacers) the credit. … It’s a matchup collectively that we have to figure out. That’s the whole point of competition.” The Heat got a strong performance from guard Dwyane Wade, who scored a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 shooting.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana made it a goal at the beginning of the season to earn homecourt advantage over Miami and made sure it would not suffer a letdown at home. The Pacers, who dropped Game 1 at home in each of the two previous rounds, scored the first seven points and never trailed in Game 1, keeping the advantage at double figures for most of the fourth quarter. “We’re just being aggressive off the bounce, trying to attack, force help and then share it,” Vogel said. “It’s a pretty simple plan. It’s not always easiest to execute, but I thought our guys executed pretty well offensively.” Paul George led with 24 points and C.J. Watson provided key minutes off the bench.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 4-0 in Heat last four overall.
* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Southeast.

CONSENSUS: Just over 67 percent of wagers on Consensus are on the Miami Heat.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, May 20


Spurs open as 6-point faves in Game 2

Lines for Game 2 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are starting to be released, and books have the Spurs opening as 6-point favorites.

The Spurs handily won Game 1 by a score of 122-105, covering as 6-point home faves and going over the 208.5 closing total. Bet365 currently lists the Spurs as 6-point favorites with a total of 210.5 this time around.

Bet365 opened the Spurs as 4.5-point faves in Game 1, with a total of 209.


Ibaka reportedly determined to come back

The Oklahoma City Thunder clearly could not replace Serge Ibaka during Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs. Ibaka, who has been ruled out of the rest of the playoffs, is not content watching his team struggle while he sits idly by.

Ibaka is "defiant and determined" to come back from his injury and help his team win a championship according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.

After Game 1 Monday, Thunder coach Scott Brooks told the media Ibaka is "not coming through those doors...He's not coming back."

Game 2 is set to go Wednesday with the Thunder opening as 6-point road dogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, May 20


Home team has won nine straight in Heat-Pacers matchup

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers tips off Tuesday night and the home side has had the advantage in the matchup.

The home team has won nine straight meetings between the best teams in the east, going 7-2 against the spread in that stretch. The Pacers are currently 2-point home dogs for tonight's game.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, May 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:30 PM ET Indiana +2 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Indiana - Over 184.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

2014 Playoff Results

May 20, 2014


Betting Results

Conference Finals
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 1-1 2-0
Against the Spread 1-1 2-0
Total
Over-Under 2-0


Eastern Conference Finals

(E1) Indiana vs. (E2) Miami
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Miami at Indiana (+2, +115) 107-96 Underdog Over (182)
2 Miami at Indiana - - -
3 Indiana at Miami - - -
4 Indiana at Miami - - -
5 Miami at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Miami - - -
7 Miami at Indiana - - -


Western Conference Finals

(W2) Oklahoma City vs. (W1) San Antonio
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Oklahoma City at San Antonio (-6) 122-105 Favorite Over (209)
2 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -
3 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
4 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
5 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Oklahoma City - - -
7 Oklahoma City at San Antonio - - -

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Thunder look to bounce back from their 122-105 loss in Game 1 as they face a Spurs team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game. Oklahoma City is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 21

Game 507-508: Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 126.520; San Antonio 130.198
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 212
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6); Under




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, May 21

Oklahoma City is without big man Ibaka for rest of playoffs, a big loss; Thunder beat San Antonio in 10 of last 13 meetings, four of five games this year, but with Ibaka out, OC's defense just isn't the same. Spurs hit 57.5% from floor in Game 1, 9-17 from arc, were +7 in turnovers. Six of last nine series games stayed under total. Oklahoma City is 4-3 on road in playoffs, with losses by 3-2-17points. Spurs won seven of eight at home in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread.

Over is 44-31 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 26-49 in playoffs this season.




NBA

Wednesday, May 21

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 8-14-2 ATS in its last 24 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City


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NBA

Wednesday, May 21

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Game of the Day: Thunder at Spurs
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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 211)

The San Antonio Spurs unleashed a dominant display in the series opener and look to make it two consecutive wins over Oklahoma City when they host the Thunder in Wednesday’s second game of the Western Conference finals. San Antonio shot 57.5 percent from the field and owned a 66-32 edge in points in the paint while rolling to a 122-105 victory. Oklahoma City couldn’t stop Tim Duncan in the first half with post player Serge Ibaka out for the series due to a calf injury.

Duncan scored 21 of his 27 points in the opening half as the Spurs established they could operate at will in the interior. The display also opened up the outside as guard Danny Green went 4-of-5 from 3-point range and guard Manu Ginobili scored all 18 of his points in the second half. Thunder stars Kevin Durant (28) and Russell Westbrook (25) combined for 53 points but San Antonio seldom allowed Oklahoma City to carry the flow of the game. “They’re younger than us and more athletic,” said point guard Tony Parker afterwards, “and so we have to be more perfect.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Spurs as 6-point home faves for Game 2. The total opened 210.5 and is up to 211.

INJURY REPORT: Thunder - F Serge Ibaka (Out, calf).

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Perhaps Ibaka is Oklahoma City’s most important player and not league MVP Kevin Durant. The Thunder were lost defensively without him on the floor – San Antonio’s 57.5 field-goal percentage is the highest allowed in the postseason in the franchise’s Oklahoma City era – and replacements Steven Adams (four points, two rebounds) and Nick Collison (scoreless with three rebounds) were both ineffective. “We’re a no-excuse team,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said. “Serge is out. He’s not coming back. We have to play better. If we expect to beat one of the best teams in basketball – and a very good offensive team – we have to play and we’re not going to make an excuse.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker had 14 points and 12 assists and wasn’t the least bit hampered by the hamstring injury he suffered Wednesday in the first round against Portland. He was able to navigate the floor well and control the pace as well as keep up defensively with the speedy Westbrook. “I thought he played a very smart game,” Duncan said of Parker in his postgame press conference. “A very efficient game, made the right plays and that’s what’s going to have to happen this series with him.” Parker said the hamstring held up well and he expects his legs to feel even better in Game 2.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.
* Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

CONSENSUS: 50.43 percent of wagers on Consensus are coming in on the Spurs -6.


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NBA

Wednesday, May 21

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Thunder-Spurs Game 2: The game inside the game
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It is simply a matter of life for those of us inside of an electric media world – one does not begin to touch a letter on a keyboard without a surge protector in place. Without one, workplace disasters can happen. Scott Brooks and the Thunder had to deal with the lack of their own “Serge Protector” around the basket at San Antonio on Monday night, and it is that issue that becomes the prime narrative as the series moves on to Game #2.

To say that Serge Ibaka was missed by Oklahoma City is not news – the weaknesses of the defensive interior were visible enough for a first-time viewer of the sport to grasp. The Spurs scored 66 points in the paint, aggressively attacking en route to shooting 57.5 percent, getting 87 FG attempts and 17 FT’s vs. only nine turnovers. What will require basketball savvy and handicapping acumen is projecting what the Thunder can or will do next.

The early marketplace is relying on NBA tradition and Zig Zag models so far, with San Antonio currently -6 across the board, similar to Monday’s close. That is calling for the Thunder to shave 11 points off of the Game #1 margin as the 50-50 expectation. Ordinarily that is not unreasonable when one team out-shoots the other by 11.2 percent, given basketball’s ebbs-and-flows when there are two upper-tier teams involved. But that can also be where there is a fallacy in numbers.

Shooting percentages measure two things – the accuracy of the shooter(s), and the quality of shots taken. Many times that second element is given short shrift, but it should be credited with most of the weight from the opener. It was not that the Spurs shot superbly, it was that they were getting superb shots. For the series to tighten, the Oklahoma City defense has to change that.

Meanwhile the Thunder shot a respectable 46.3 percent, including 12-27 from 3-point range. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were 19-40, which is not easy to improve upon, and if there was a “wild card” in the Monday flow it was the 29 points from Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher, on a 10-17 line that included 5-8 triples. Those two are unlikely to reach that level of efficiency again. You do not come away from Monday projecting OKC to shoot much better. So closing the scoreboard gap requires limiting turnovers (they had 16), and the defense forcing the Spurs into tougher shots.

So now back to that defense, because it also connects directly to the offensive flow. Except for the opening of the third quarter, when the Thunder went on a 19-10 run over eight minutes, stops were uncommon (in the first half the Spurs never went longer than 1:24 without scoring). Brooks had his biggest lineup on the floor to begin the 3rd, and it keyed that run. By dictating the flow with defense (San Antonio shot 3-12 through that stretch, with five turnovers), they were able to get out into the open floor on offense, which led to some easy opportunities for Durant and Westbrook.

There was a flip side to that, of course. While the defense was much better, when it is Perkins-Sefolosha-Collison on the court the offense is largely limited to the two stars. When they created open-court opportunities they closed the gap, but when the Spurs scored, and the Thunder had to execute against a set defense, it was awful. The first nine times they had the ball after San Antonio points in the 3rd quarter the offense only scored twice. At one point they were blanked for 3:51, until Fisher’s FT’s with 53.1 left. Those were the only points that did not come from Durant or Westbrook in the quarter, and the first FG in the second half from someone other than those two did not come until 7:30 remained in the game, when they were down 14.

The simple truth is that Brooks lacks options. He got some defensive life out of a bigger group for one stretch, but as the minutes went by that lineup became too easy to guard on the other end. Attempts to go extremely small, with Durant being the biggest player in the lineup, also failed because the San Antonio offense brought a precision to isolate and attack the smaller players in post-up settings. Which leads to the next point.

Over the last five home playoff games the Spurs have beaten three different teams by counts of 17, 22, 17, 24 and 23. They averaged 115 PPG, shooting 52.9 percent in the process. And note that those numbers are actually shaded against them a bit – they averaged 64.2 PPG in the first half, leading by 16.4, before a fair amount of coasting. So the issue is not just Brooks having to patch a defensive hole, but having to patch it against an offense that is playing at a level of execution rarely seen.

The Thunder will bring a better effort defensively (no one other than Fisher or Nick Collison came up with a steal!), with a Tuesday practice to develop some sans-Ibaka chemistry on that end. But it is damn hard to devise a game plan for guarding the Spurs right now. Not only do they have the opportunity to be efficient on offense, but they will also be pushing the pace when possible. As such the market adjustment up to 211 on the Total may still leave value – that plateau was reached over 45:09 on Monday, and because of the margin there were only two FT’s taken over the final 5:00. If the Thunder are involved in the end-game this time, the prospect of scramble points materializes.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, May 21


Favorites starting to cash in for bettors

After the Underdog had put in a stellar run in the NBA Playoffs, the favorite looks like it is starting to cash in for bettors, putting together a modest 2-0 against the spread run in the past two games.

The Miami Heat won 87-83 over the Indiana Pacers, covering as 2.5-point road faves Tuesday night. This result just one night following the San Antonio Spurs' big 122-105 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder as 6-point faves Monday.

The Spurs are currently 6-point favorites in Game 2, which goes Wednesday night in San Antonio.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, May 21

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio, 9:00 ET
Oklahoma City: 15-6 Under on the road after going over the total by 10 or more points
San Antonio: 6-1 ATS at home after scoring 120 or more points

[StarDust Bum]

OKC looks to rebound

May 21, 2014


Western Conference Finals Game 2 Preview

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (67-29) at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (71-24)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: San Antonio -6 & 212

After a big win by the Spurs in the opener of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder look to even the series in Wednesday's Game 2.

The absence of injured PF Serge Ibaka (12.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.2 BPG in playoffs) was apparent in Monday's loss by Oklahoma City, as San Antonio rattled off a big 122-105 victory as a six-point home favorite. The Spurs dominated most of the game and held off small runs by the Thunder while shooting an incredible 57.5% from the field and putting up 30+ points in three of the four quarters. San Antonio also made 9-of-17 three-pointers in the contest while forcing 16 turnovers and committing only nine. It was apparent that without an inside scoring presence, the Thunder were taking more jump shots, and were outscored 66-32 in the paint. Tim Duncan was incredible in the game, going for a team-high 27 points plus seven rebounds, while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 53 points in the loss, which was more than their other 10 teammates combined.

Oklahoma City fell to 29-19 SU (24-23-1 ATS) on the road this season with the loss, while the Spurs pushed their home record to an incredible 39-10 SU on the season, but are only 25-24 ATS. This game was evidence that regular-season numbers do not always matter, since the Thunder defeated San Antonio in each of the four games during the year SU and ATS; outscoring them by an average of 9.3 PPG.

Going back three seasons, Oklahoma City is 11-7 SU in this matchup while going 12-5-1 ATS, and it is a resilient 140-90 ATS (61%) after an ATS loss under Scott Brooks. But San Antonio is 38-20 ATS (66%) after scoring 110+ points over the past two seasons and 84-57 ATS (60%) after 2+ straight wins over the past three seasons.

The big injury is of course that of PF Serge Ibaka (calf), who will likely be out for the rest of the season for the Thunder. The Spurs come into this contest with a clean bill of health.

Oklahoma City has brought its high-scoring abilities into the playoffs and is averaging 104.5 PPG (45.4% FG) despite playing a defensive-minded Grizzlies team in the first round. But the defense hasn't been great, allowing only 102.6 PPG on 44.3% FG.

SF Kevin Durant (31.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) failed to crack 30 points for just the fifth time in his 14 playoff games this year when he went for 28 points, nine rebounds, five assists and one block in the Game 1 loss. He also posted a dismal minus-17 rating while struggling to keep possession of the ball. Durant committed six turnovers and has now averaged 5.3 turnovers per game in his past four contests. PG Russell Westbrook (26.5 PPG, 8.3 APG, 7.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) had another great all-around game on Monday night, scoring 25 points to go with seven assists and five rebounds. After shooting 58% from the field in the first three games of the second round, Westbrook is making shots at just a 42% FG clip over his past four contests.

PG Reggie Jackson (10.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG in playoffs) will need to increase his offensive output with Ibaka out of the picture, and he was solid in Game 1 with 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting. SF Caron Butler (6.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG in playoffs) could also play a major role in this series, but is shooting just 31% from the field over his past five games. Butler had nine points and four rebounds on Monday night. The club's top scoring reserve was veteran PG Derek Fisher (3.9 PPG on 32% FG in playoffs) who dropped 16 points on 4-of-6 threes, but posted a game-worst rating of minus-18.

San Antonio has been the team to beat since its close loss in last year’s NBA Finals, and the club is scoring 106.8 PPG in the playoffs while hitting an incredible 50.0% of their shots. The defense has also played pretty well by holding opponents to 99.2 PPG on 43.9% FG.

PF Tim Duncan (16.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG in playoffs) had arguably his best game of this postseason on Monday with 27 points on 11-of-19 shooting to go with seven rebounds and three assists. The performance was encouraging since he averaged only 13.8 PPG (46% FG) in the five games against the Trail Blazers in the second round. PG Tony Parker (16.8 PPG, 5.5 APG in playoffs) had 14 points on Monday night while dishing out 12 assists. It was just the second time in this postseason that Parker had double-digit assists, and he also picked up a steal for the fifth time in his past six games.

SF Kawhi Leonard (14.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs) played 39 minutes in the series opener and had 16 points, six rebounds, three steals and a block. He has now averaged 19.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 4.0 SPG over his past two games. SG Manu Ginobili (14.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) shot horribly in the final three games of the Western Conference Semifinals (8.3 PPG on 7-of-25 FG, 28%), but opened this series with 18 points on 7-of-12 FG (3-of-4 threes).

C Tiago Splitter (8.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) has cooled off since a big first round, and played just 19 minutes in Game 1, scoring six points while grabbing eight rebounds. SG Danny Green (8.5 PPG, 47% threes in playoffs) had an outstanding performance on Monday with 16 points on 6-of-7 FG (4-for-5 threes) and his +30 rating was by far the best rating of the game, as three players were at +12. Green has now made 8-of-11 threes over his past two games while averaging 19.0 PPG in that time.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 2 - Thunder at Spurs

May 21, 2014

After the Heat rallied past the Pacers last night, favorites are on a short hot streak in the conference finals covering each of the last two games, while improving to 2-1 straight-up and against the spread in this round. The Spurs will try to keep that pace going tonight in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder after dominating Oklahoma City in the paint in the series opener on Monday.

San Antonio finally broke through against OKC after losing all four regular season meetings with a 122-105 rout in Game 1 of the conference finals to cash as six-point favorites. The Spurs owned the Thunder in the paint, 66-32, taking advantage of Serge Ibaka’s absence due to a calf injury that will likely sideline the Oklahoma City power forward for the remainder of the playoffs. San Antonio shot a blistering 57% from the floor, led by Tim Duncan’s 27 points and 18 off the bench from a rejuvenated Manu Ginobili.

The Thunder had to rely on its two young stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined for 53 points, but the other three starters (Nick Collison, Kendrick Perkins, and Thabo Sefolosha) totaled just five points on 2-of-10 shooting from the field. OKC received a surprising output from veteran Derek Fisher off the bench with 16 points and 13 from standout guard Reggie Jackson, but the Thunder needs to make up for Ibaka’s absence somehow to slow down the Spurs’ frontcourt moving forward in this series.

After failing to cover the first three home games in the opening round against the Mavericks, San Antonio has now cashed five consecutive contests at the AT&T Center, winning each of those games by double-digits. In each win during this five-game hot stretch at home, Gregg Popovich’s club has drilled the ‘over’ four times, while topping the 104-point mark in each of the last six home contests.

Monday’s loss snapped an eight-game SU/ATS winning streak dating back to January in the role of an underdog for the Thunder, which included a 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the second round series victory over the Clippers. OKC has topped the 100-point mark in eight of the last nine games, but the ‘under’ has hit in four of the past six contests.

According to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and his top-notch historical database, the Thunder are worth strong consideration tonight, “As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a point-spread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 46-29-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.”

To look at the view on both sides, VegasInsider.com’s Chris David first analyzes why to put your money on the Spurs tonight, “After watching Game 1, it's hard to make a case for Oklahoma City unless you believe it can fix its defense in the middle. Watching the Spurs score 122 was solid but what really impressed me is that they put up those numbers with 13 free throws and nine 3-pointers, both below their season averages. Including Monday’s win, the Spurs are now 6-1 both SU and ATS in their last seven games, and all six wins came by double digits. If you’re betting Game 2 and base your handicapping style strictly on current form, it’s hard to justify a play against San Antonio.”

On the flip side, David makes a case for the Thunder simply on their success in the ‘dog role, “If you’re looking for a reason to back Oklahoma City with the points in Game 2, you could lean to its 3-1 ATS record as an underdog in this year’s playoffs. Or perhaps past playoff tendencies will come to fruition again for OKC. Since the 2009 postseason, the Thunder have gone 3-2 in Game 2 after a loss in Game 1. The two losses came by three and nine points, the latter coincidentally came against San Antonio in the 2012 Western Conference Finals. In case you forgot, the Thunder wound up winning that series with four straight wins after trailing 0-2 but they did have a healthy Ibaka and an All-Star named James Harden.”

The Game 1 total closed at 208 ½ and easily went ‘over,’ but the oddsmakers have adjusted the total up for tonight’s contest to 211. The Spurs were favored to win the series prior to Monday’s opener, but San Antonio is now a -500 favorite (Bet $500 to win $100) to advance to the NBA Finals. The Thunder dropped from +150 to +375 to win this series following the Game 1 loss, but as David mentioned before, this OKC team has rallied past San Antonio before to advance to the NBA Finals.

Tonight's contest tips off at 9:00 p.m. from the AT&T Center and the game can be seen on TNT. The Spurs currently are six-point favorites across the board.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, May 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET San Antonio -5.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Antonio - Over 210 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Game 3 - Pacers at Heat

May 23, 2014


NBA East Finals Game 3 Preview

INDIANA PACERS (65-32) at MIAMI HEAT (63-30)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -7 & 183.5

The Heat look to build on Tuesday's victory over the Pacers when the Eastern Conference Finals shifts to South Beach for a pivotal Game 3 on Saturday night.

Miami was able to take Game 2 by shooting 51% FG and 40% threes (8-of-20), while producing seven steals and six blocks, which was much more than Indiana's six steals and two blocks. The Pacers stayed in the game with excellent long-range shooting (47.4%) which dwarfed what they shot from inside the arc (37.7%). But Indiana did have the edge in rebounding (41-38), including a significant 16-6 advantage on the offensive glass.

With Tuesday's outcome, the Heat hold a 15-11 SU advantage in the past three seasons in this series with the teams an even 13-13 ATS in those contests. But this series has been very lopsided in South Beach, as the Pacers are just 3-15 SU (7-11 ATS) in their past 18 visits to AmericanAirlines Arena.

Indiana was a completely different team in Game 2 than it was in Game 1, as the club was not getting the same efficient production and balance from its starting unit with a virtually non-existent bench that scored only nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. SG Lance Stephenson (21.0 PPG, 7.5 APG, 5.0 RPG in series) has been the best player for the Pacers in this series while serving as the team’s primary playmaker, finding his teammates for easy buckets when he’s not knocking down his jumpers. Stephenson has also played some very solid defense for his team.

SF Paul George (19.0 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.5 RPG in series) really struggled in Game 2, scoring just 14 points (4-of-16 FG) in 43 minutes. George took a knee to the back of his head in the fourth quarter of the loss, and suffered a concussion, leaving him questionable for Game 3. If the All-Star is unable to play on Saturday, it will be a huge loss for a Pacers team that really struggles to score, even at full strength.

C Roy Hibbert (15.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG in series) continues to be a major presence for Indiana, while Miami does not have the size to bang with Hibbert down low. The big man finished with 12 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2. The Pacers would be wise to establish their All-Star center early in Game 3 in order to dictate the pace of the game.

PF David West (14.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.5 APG in series) has been the rock of consistency throughout these playoffs, but played poorly in Game 2 with just 10 points (5-of-16 FG) and six rebounds, and his team will need him to get back on track early in Game 3.

The Heat picked up a huge road win in Game 2 and have now taken back home-court advantage in the series. SF LeBron James (23.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) had his fingerprints all over the Game 2 win, finishing with 22 points, seven rebounds and six assists. James was also ferocious on defense, ending up with three blocks and two steals in his 42 minutes of play. James will need to continue to make plays going to the rim in Game 3 if the Heat are going to take the lead in the series.

James, however, was not out there alone, as SG Dwyane Wade (25.0 PPG, 4.5 APG in series) has looked like his former self for the Heat. Wade had 23 points (10-of-16 FG), five assists and five rebounds in just 34 minutes of play in the Game 2 victory, and Miami will look to keep feeding Wade while he is scoring this efficiently. PF Chris Bosh (9.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in series) has been a no-show for Miami in this series and that absolutely must change if the Heat are going to advance to the NBA Finals. Bosh had just nine points and six rebounds in 35 minutes of Game 2. He is shooting horribly from the outside this series (1-of-9 threes) and should look to establish himself around the basket in Game 3 in order to gain some confidence.

PG Norris Cole (5.5 PPG in series) played some huge minutes off the bench for the Heat in Game 2, finishing the game with 11 points (3-of-4 FG, 2-of-2 threes) and two assists in just 27 minutes of play. Miami desperately needed somebody to provide some offense off the bench in that game and Cole delivered. He should get a bump in minutes in Game 3 after his performance, especially considering how poorly starting PG Mario Chalmers has played this series. He has just 6.0 PPG on 31% FG with 4.0 APG and 2.5 TOPG.

[StarDust Bum]

Pacers' George expected to play

May 23, 2014


MIAMI (AP) - Indiana's Paul George will play in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals, which comes as no surprise to the Miami Heat.

They were expecting him there all along.

The Pacers announced Friday night that George has been cleared ''to return to normal basketball activity,'' a decision made three days after he was concussed in Game 2 of the Indiana-Miami series.

''Barring any unforeseen complications, he will play'' on Saturday in Miami, the Pacers said.

So that settled one lineup issue.

The Heat now have a lineup decision to make.

Greg Oden - whose last postseason appearance was April 30, 2009 - may be inserted into the Heat rotation after showing Miami's coaches in recent days that back issues that slowed him down for weeks may finally be a thing of the past. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that Oden ''could'' get some minutes, which would almost certainly come against Indiana center Roy Hibbert.

''If coach needs me, I'm ready to play,'' Oden said. ''I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me.''

The series is tied at a game apiece, with Miami grabbing the home-court edge away by rallying for an 87-83 win at Indianapolis in Game 2. The teams have been off since, which figures to be a blessing of sorts for the Pacers - who had several players limping and ailing late in that game, with George's concussion the most notable malady.

The back of George's head was struck by Dwyane Wade's knee as both were trying to get control of a loose ball during the fourth quarter of that game. George remained in the game but was basically a non-factor the rest of the way, and Miami owned the final minutes. The concussion came to light only after George revealed postgame that he briefly ''blacked out.''

''I probably should have kept that to myself,'' George said. ''It just made a mess. That's something that, going forward, just keep that between myself and the training staff.''

The Heat never even considered the possibility that George wouldn't play in Game 3.

''Why wouldn't he?'' Heat star LeBron James asked.

Wade said he wanted to see George out there, because competitors always want to play against the best, particularly at this time of year. And in these playoffs, no one has looked better on the road - especially defensively - than the Pacers, who still haven't won even two consecutive home games in this postseason but have won five in a row away from home.

Atlanta and Washington combined to shoot only 38 percent at home against Indiana in the opening two rounds, averaging just 84.8 points per game. The Pacers haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts in those games, averaging 90.7 points themselves, but the airtight defense was enough for Indiana to save its season by winning elimination games in both matchups.

''We played at a high level in the Washington series, and those last two against Atlanta when we were down in the series, we played with great desperation,'' Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. ''Our guys take pride in their defense. That's probably why you see those numbers.''

Then again, the Heat present a bit more of a challenge than the Hawks and Wizards.

''I don't know if the home court really matters right now in the playoffs,'' Spoelstra said. ''It's more about your collective disposition, and you're imposing that identity on the other team. I think either team could win home or away.''

Miami is 5-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 10 points per game and shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Going back to last season, the Heat have won eight straight playoff games in their own building and since James joined the club they're 35-7 at home during the postseason.

Among those seven losses? The Pacers won at Miami in both 2012 and 2013.

And that's why Miami knows having the home-court edge now hardly assures a series win.

''Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years,'' James said. ''We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play.''

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Saturday

May 24, 2014

After a three-day break, the Eastern Conference Finals will resume on Saturday as Miami and Indiana will meet in Game 3 from American Airlines Arena. ESPN will provide national coverage at 8:30 p.m. ET.

On Tuesday, the Heat rallied for an 87-83 victory in Game 2 to even the best-of-seven series at 1-1. The Pacers led by four points (73-69) with seven minutes to play in the final quarter before Miami closed the game on an 18-11 run and posted another familiar comeback. Indiana actually had a shot to backdoor the point-spread as a 2 ½-point home underdog but a failed 3-point attempt came up short.

These late-game rallies for Miami have been going on since this group came together four years ago and betting against them can be very frustrating.

For Game 3, oddsmakers opened the Heat as seven-point favorites and the number has slightly dipped to 6 ½ points as of Saturday morning.

From a handicapping perspective, I believe you can make strong cases for both teams on Saturday.

Indiana is perfect off a loss in this year’s postseason, going 5-0.

Most shops have Miami listed as a 1/3 favorite (Bet $100 to win $300) on the money-line, while Indiana is a 5/2 underdog (Bet $100 to win $250).

Would you be surprised if the Pacers won on Saturday? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers. He answered, “The Pacers have struggled in South Florida since the 2012 playoffs, losing seven of the last eight meetings, including two defeats this season. It’s hard to deny Indiana’s success as an underdog in this postseason, but in two victories at Washington, the Pacers trailed in the fourth quarter. Plus, the Heat have been solid at home in the playoffs.”

The Heat have won eight straight postseason games at home, which includes a 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread mark this year. Since LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh formed their alliance in 2010, the Heat have gone 35-7 at home in the playoffs. To be fair, this Indiana squad does own two of those victories (2012, 2013).

Indiana’s Paul George was diagnosed with a concussion after Game 2 but he is now listed as ‘probable’ for the third installment. I doubt it will have any major importance but the Heat could suit up center Greg Oden for Game 3.

Bettors looking to wager on the adjusted series price can back Miami as a 1/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $25) or take a shot with Indiana at a plus-320 (Bet $100 to win $320) price.

According to Rogers, total players could be scratching their heads for Game 3. He explained, “The big question is whether this game will go ‘over’ or ‘under’ depending on strong trends each way. The Pacers have stayed ‘under’ the total in five of six playoff games away from the Hoosier State, while the Heat has gone ‘over’ the total in four of five home contests.”

Most books sent out 182 ½ for Game 3 and the number has been pushed up to 183.

I asked Paul Bovi, arguably the best total handicapper on VI, his ‘over/under’ analysis for Game 3 and the series.

He said, “Based on the head-to-head meetings between the pair this season, I would lean ‘under’ for Game 3 and the rest of the series. We’ve now seen six encounters and the three ‘under’ winners were never in doubt. Two of the three ‘over’ tickets that cashed were very fortunate to do so and then you had the aberration in Game 1 of this series when they combined for 203 points.”

Aberration might be an understatement too! In the last 20 meetings, only three times have these teams combined to score more than 200 points, with Game 1 in this best-of-seven being one of the results.

Totals are all about pace and Miami has slowed the game down more than anybody in the playoffs. The Heat are averaging 72.6 attempts per game but they have the ability to score because they’re also averaging 23.2 attempts from 3-point land and 23.1 attempts from the free-throw stripe.

For those bettors that like to use betting angles and trends in their handicapping approach, make a note that VI handicapper Marc Lawrence has identified a solid lean for Saturday’s Game 3. According to his database, he provided the below NBA playoff angle for the third round.

“Teams with a better win percentage taking points off a loss are 22-17-1 ATS (56%) on the blind. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 21-12-1 ATS (61.7%). Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-5-1 ATS (72%) winning edge.”

Based on the above from Lawrence -- Indiana owns the better winning percentage, they lost Game 2 by four points and they’re getting more than four in Game 3. It’s obviously not perfect but if you’re leaning to the underdog, this is another factor that could make you more confident.

As far as officials for Game 3, bettors are looking at the below.

Game 3 - Pacers at Heat
Official Games Average Home Score Average Road Score Over Under
Monty McCutchen 74 102.78 100.49 41 33
Tony Brothers 70 102.20 99.97 29 41
Zach Zarba 77 100.44 100.05 37 40

McCutchen (no relation to Andrew) and Zarba are both quality officials but I’m not fond of Brothers, who was involved in that fiasco during Game 5 of the Clippers-Thunders series. Even before the replay issue, he was off his game and too quick with his whistle.

Game 4 will take place on Monday from the American Airlines Arena.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Pacers (56-26) at Heat (54-28)

Date: May 24, 2014 8:30 PM EDT


MIAMI (AP) - Indiana's Paul George will play in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals, which comes as no surprise to the Miami Heat.

They were expecting him there all along.

The Pacers announced Friday night that George has been cleared 'to return to normal basketball activity,' a decision made three days after he was concussed in Game 2 of the Indiana-Miami series.

'Barring any unforeseen complications, he will play' on Saturday in Miami, the Pacers said.

So that settled one lineup issue.

The Heat now have a lineup decision to make.

Greg Oden - whose last postseason appearance was April 30, 2009 - may be inserted into the Heat rotation after showing Miami's coaches in recent days that back issues that slowed him down for weeks may finally be a thing of the past. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that Oden 'could' get some minutes, which would almost certainly come against Indiana center Roy Hibbert.

'If coach needs me, I'm ready to play,' Oden said. 'I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me.'

The series is tied at a game apiece, with Miami grabbing the home-court edge away by rallying for an 87-83 win at Indianapolis in Game 2. The teams have been off since, which figures to be a blessing of sorts for the Pacers - who had several players limping and ailing late in that game, with George's concussion the most notable malady.

The back of George's head was struck by Dwyane Wade's knee as both were trying to get control of a loose ball during the fourth quarter of that game. George remained in the game but was basically a non-factor the rest of the way, and Miami owned the final minutes. The concussion came to light only after George revealed postgame that he briefly 'blacked out.'

'I probably should have kept that to myself,' George said. 'It just made a mess. That's something that, going forward, just keep that between myself and the training staff.'

The Heat never even considered the possibility that George wouldn't play in Game 3.

'Why wouldn't he?' Heat star LeBron James asked.

Wade said he wanted to see George out there, because competitors always want to play against the best, particularly at this time of year. And in these playoffs, no one has looked better on the road - especially defensively - than the Pacers, who still haven't won even two consecutive home games in this postseason but have won five in a row away from home.

Atlanta and Washington combined to shoot only 38 percent at home against Indiana in the opening two rounds, averaging just 84.8 points per game. The Pacers haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts in those games, averaging 90.7 points themselves, but the airtight defense was enough for Indiana to save its season by winning elimination games in both matchups.

'We played at a high level in the Washington series, and those last two against Atlanta when we were down in the series, we played with great desperation,' Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. 'Our guys take pride in their defense. That's probably why you see those numbers.'

Then again, the Heat present a bit more of a challenge than the Hawks and Wizards.

'I don't know if the home court really matters right now in the playoffs,' Spoelstra said. 'It's more about your collective disposition, and you're imposing that identity on the other team. I think either team could win home or away.'

Miami is 5-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 10 points per game and shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Going back to last season, the Heat have won eight straight playoff games in their own building and since James joined the club they're 35-7 at home during the postseason.

Among those seven losses? The Pacers won at Miami in both 2012 and 2013.

And that's why Miami knows having the home-court edge now hardly assures a series win.

'Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years,' James said. 'We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play.'