Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, April 27


Guard play key to Nets-Raptors over trend

When the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets meet, bettors can expect an offensive outburst good enough to top the total. The last five meetings in Brooklyn have all gone over and four of the last four meetings overall have gone over, with the only under coming by 1.5-points.

In the past five meetings the Nets and Raptors have scored 983-points which equals 196.6 points per game. Of those numbers guard play has totaled for 307 points overall for an average of 61.4 points per game from the position.

The opening total for Game 4 showdown between the Raptors and Nets is 192.

[StarDust Bum]

2014 Playoff Results

April 26, 2014


Betting Results

First Round
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 12-14 11-15
Against the Spread 6-19-1 9-16-1
Total
Over-Under 17-9


Eastern Conference First Round

(1) Indiana vs. (8) Atlanta
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Atlanta (+8, +350) at Indiana 101-93 Underdog Over (185.5)
2 Atlanta at Indiana (-7.5) 101-85 Favorite Under (187)
3 Indiana at Atlanta (+2.5, +120) 98-85 Underdog Under (187)
4 Indiana (-2.5) at Atlanta 91-88 Favorite Under (188.5)
5 Atlanta at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Atlanta - - -
7 Atlanta at Indiana - - -


(2) Miami vs. (7) Charlotte
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 99-88 Favorite Over (186)
2 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 101-97 Underdog Over (187.5)
3 Miami (-4.5) at Charlotte 98-85 Favorite Under (187.5)
4 Miami at Charlotte - - -
5 Charlotte at Miami - - -
6 Miami at Charlotte - - -
7 Charlotte at Miami - - -


(3) Toronto vs. (6) Brooklyn
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Brooklyn (+3.5, +145) at Toronto 94-87 Underdog Under (192.5)
2 Brooklyn at Toronto (-5) 100-95 Push Over (191)
3 Toronto at Brooklyn (-5) 102-98 Underdog Over (191)
4 Toronto at Brooklyn - - -
5 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -
6 Toronto at Brooklyn - - -
7 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -


(4) Chicago vs. (5) Washington
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+4.5, +170) at Chicago 102-93 Underdog Over (178.5)
2 Washington (+5, +200) at Chicago 101-99 (OT) Underdog Over (180.5)
3 Chicago (+2.5, +130) at Washington 100-97 Underdog Over (180.5)
4 Chicago at Washington - - -
5 Washington at Chicago - - -
6 Chicago at Washington - - -
7 Washington at Chicago - - -



Western Conference First Round

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Dallas
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Dallas at San Antonio (-9) 90-85 Underdog Under (203.5)
2 Dallas (+7.5, +300) at San Antonio 113-92 Underdog Over (201.5)
3 San Antonio at Dallas (+3.5, +150) 109-108 Underdog Over (200)
4 San Antonio at Dallas - - -
5 Dallas at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Dallas - - -
7 Dallas at San Antonio - - -


(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Memphis
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Memphis at Oklahoma City (-8) 100-86 Favorite Under (190.5)
2 Memphis (+7, +290) at Oklahoma City 111-105 (OT) Underdog Over (190.5)
3 Oklahoma City at Memphis (+2.5, +125) 98-95 (OT) Underdog Over (190)
4 Oklahoma City (-3.5) at Memphis 92-89 (OT) Underdog Under (188)
5 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -
6 Oklahoma City at Memphis - - -
7 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -


(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Golden State
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Golden State (+7.5, +310) at Los Angeles 109-105 Underdog Over (211)
2 Golden State at Los Angeles (-8) 138-98 Favorite Over (212.5)
3 Los Angeles (-3) at Golden State 98-96 Underdog Under (212)
4 Los Angeles at Golden State - - -
5 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -
6 Los Angeles at Golden State - - -
7 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -


(4) Houston vs. (5) Portland
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Portland (+5.5, +190) at Houston 122-120 (OT) Underdog Over (215.5)
2 Portland (+6.5, +270) at Houston 112-105 Underdog Over (215)
3 Houston (+2.5, +110) at Portland 121-116 (OT) Underdog Over (214.5)
4 Houston at Portland - - -
5 Portland at Houston - - -
6 Houston at Portland - - -
7 Portland at Houston - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, April 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Washington - Over 184 500 *****

L.A. Clippers - 3:30 PM ET Golden State +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Golden State - Over 209.5 500 *****

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Brooklyn -4 500 *****

Brooklyn - Under 192 500 *****

Houston - 9:30 PM ET Houston +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Portland - Over 213.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

-- Warriors 118, Clippers 97-- Vegas sportsbooks have to take Clippers off the board until they win a game, or at least look like they're trying to win.

-- Raptors 87, Nets 79-- Toronto's first road playoff win since 2001.

-- Five of seven National League games Sunday were shutouts.

-- Argument for DH: Mets' pitchers are 0 for 41 this season.

-- Speaking of the Mets, they're 6-0 when Anthony Recker is the catcher.

-- Rookie ump Chris Segal's first three games behind plate: 10-9/10-9/9-6; going out on a limb to say he's a hitters' umpire?

*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Going thru NFC schedules..........

Arizona-- Play 11 of 16 games in domes, with opener and two of last three at night. Have one division game in first half of season; finish with three in row. Week 4 bye is too early, Play consecutive road games only once-- this is a really good schedule.

Atlanta-- All three divisional road games are in second half of season; they open at home, finish at home, have only two night games one of which is hideous Monday night game at Lambeau, on Dec 8. Week 8 game in London is on at 9:30am ET. Oy.

Carolina-- Cam Newton gets them three night games, including home games with Steelers/Saints. Play outdoors at Vikings Nov 30, but last two away games are both in domes. Week 12 bye is late but if they're contending, That could be a big help.

Chicago-- First two road games, 49ers/Giants in Weeks 2-3 are both on road; also play consecutive primetime games at home in December, not great for people who buy tickets to games. Old friend Lovie Smith's Bucs come to town in Week 12.

Dallas-- Most overrated franchise in sports is in primetime five times, plus annual Thanksgiving Day game; they're going to freeze late in season, four of last six games are in potential wintry weather. Home five out of six weeks from Weeks 4-9.

Detroit-- Week 1 Monday night home opener with Giants, Week 8 game in London; host Bears on Thanksgiving, but close with cold weather games at Bears/Packers. If my favorite team hired Jim Caldwell as coach, I'd just be a grumpy middle aged man, and it would depress me to look at their schedule.

Green Bay-- Start with three road games in first four weeks; three of their five night games are at home. Have five of last eight games at home, plsu outdoor games in cold weather (Vikings/Bills)- they're going to have a very cold second half this season.

Minnesota-- They're playing home games outdoors this year/next; two road games in December are in Detroit's dome/Miami. Only one night game, Week 5 at Lambeau on a Thursday. Don't play Chicago until Week 11, then again in season finale.

New Orleans-- Play three of first four games, three of last five games on road, with a nasty Week 15 Monday night game in Chicago. Have three in row at home Weeks 10-12, Four of their first six games are against teams with new coaches this season.

Giants-- First three road games are in primetime: Lions-Redskins-Eagles- their three divisional home games are in last six weeks. Have Week 8 bye, which is good, but in first three games after that bye, they play Colts-Seahawks-49ers. Not good.

Philadelphia-- Close season with three divisional games, last two on road- their games vs Dallas are two weeks apart, weeks 13-15. Three of four night games are at home-- their two games with old friend DeSean Jackson/Redskins are in weeks 3-16.

Rams-- Two night games, both at home; their first two games are vs teams with new coaches. One of four teams to play three straight road games; weeks 8-10, at Chiefs, 49ers-Cardinals. Meet old friend RGIII Week 14 in Maryland- they will have finally used all the draft picks they got for trading Griffin to the Redskins.

San Francisco-- Don't leave west coast after Week 11; have consecutive primetime night games in Weeks 6-7 (Rams/Broncos), then play Rams again in Week 9. Have a Thanksgiving night game with Seattle in their new stadium, then visit Seahawks two weeks later. They only have one trip to eastern time zone.

Seattle-- Three of four primetime games are on road; NFL said it is because Seattle has beaten teams so badly in primetime home games, TV ratings were low, and that isn't acceptable. Five of their six divisional games are in last six weeks of season.

Tampa Bay-- Finally have competent head coach after Morris/Schiano-- they open and close with two home games, but are on road three weeks in row (weeks 3-5) and four times in five weeks from weeks 11-15. Only three games on artificial turf are all in domes- their two December road games are Detroit's dome/Carolina.

Washington-- Play three night games in five-week stretch (weeks 5-8); finish with three divisional games, last two at home. Week 3 visit to Philly with be good theater, with DeSean Jackson facing old team. Jay Gruden is a rookie NFL head coach, but he was a head coach for several years in the Arena League.

Sunday's List of 16: Going thru AFC schedules.........
Baltimore-- First three games are vs divisional rivals; have only one home game in October. Week 11 bye is late; both Steeler games are in primetime, two of their three night games, other one being at New Orleans, where they won Super Bowl 47.

Buffalo-- Have only one December home game; league did Miami/San Diego a favor and sent them to Buffalo in September. Bills' visit to Miami is a night game, their one road game in November. Bye is in Week 9, good place for it.

Cincinnati-- Team with two new coordinators opens with its division rival Ravens; they don't play Steelers until Week 14. Week 4 bye is very early; they're one of four teams with three straight road games: Saints-Texans-Bucs in weeks 11-13.

Cleveland-- Play Steelers twice in first six weeks, with early Week 4 bye stuck in middle there. Play four of last six games on road- their only night game is Week 10 in Cincinnati. "New" Browns have still only opened 1-0 once in fifteen years.

Denver-- Three of first seven games are at night, as are two of last five; Week 4 bye is very early. Have three straight road games (Pats-Raiders-Rams) in weeks 9-11. Manning plays his old team in opener. Super bowl losers have struggled in openers the next season, though 49ers bucked that trend last year.

Texans-- Visit old friend Matt Schaub in Oakland in Week 2; open at home, also got last two games at home. Play only one division game in first seven weeks. Week 10 bye is in a good place. Two games with Jacksonville are in weeks 14-17.

Colts-- First two games (@ Denver, vs Philly) are in primetime; have only one road game in November, but play three of last four on road. Week 6 Thursday game down in Houston will be tough spot, after hosting Ravens. Have chance to avenge loss to Patriots in playoffs when New England visits in Week 11.

Jaguars-- Play three of first four games on road, but two of last three road games are in domes; only possible cold weather game is Week 15 in Baltimore. Have a Week 16 Thursday night home game with Titans-- good night to go Christmas shopping??

Chiefs-- Play all three divisional road games before any of the three home games; Week 12 Thursday night game at Oakland is tough spot, tucked in between games with LY's Super Bowl teams. Play Broncos-Patriots-49ers in Weeks 2-4-5- tough.

Dolphins-- Play three of last four at home, but have three potential cold weather games, at Denver-Jets-Patriots in weeks 12-13-15, with visit to Swamp a Monday tilt on Dec 1st. Week 5 bye is early-- they open season with Patriots/Bills, but do not play Jets until weeks 13-17.

Patriots-- Play three of first four on road, have post-Thanksgiving trips to Green Bay-Jersey- they could freeze in five of last six games. Both their short week games are at home, which helps. Week 10 bye is in good place, in between tough games vs Denver/Indianapolis.

Jets-- Three of first four at home, three of last four on road, with Dec 7 visit to Minnesota, which is playing home games outdoors now. Go to Foxboro on a short week in Week 7 for Thursday game- both their Monday night games are at home.

Raiders-- Come to Jersey/Foxboro in first three weeks, then Cleveland in Week 8; their only night game is Thursday night home game in Week 12 with Chiefs. Week 5 bye is early; their home opener is with Houston, Matt Schaub's old employers.

Steelers-- Open at home, also play last two games at home, but in weeks 2-6, are on road four times in five weeks, with weeks 2-3 consecutive primetime road games, at Ravens/Panthers. Don't play Bengals until weeks 14-17, also play Saints, Chiefs and Falcons in last five weeks, very tough closing stretch.

Chargers-- Last five games: Ravens-Pats-Denver-49ers-Chiefs. Open on road and have last two games on road. Week 10 bye is ideal- they open season with couple of NFC West teams, but catch Seattle in Week 2, coming off long week after Thursday opener that Super Bowl champ almost always hosts.

Titans-- Host Jets/Giants on consecutive December Sundays; odd. Play three of four on road to open season; home opener is rare visit by Dallas. Writeups like this are harder to do for teams that were bad the year before; lot less quirks in schedules of teams not perceived to be contenders.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Dallas
The Spurs look to avoid going down 3-1 in the series and come into tonight's contest with an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28

Game 501-502: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.326; Charlotte 118.912
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Atlanta at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.817; Indiana 128.909
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 16; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: San Antonio at Dallas (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 131.197; Dallas 121.657
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 28

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MIAMI (57 - 28) at CHARLOTTE (43 - 42) - 4/28/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHARLOTTE is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
CHARLOTTE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a division game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHARLOTTE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 63-100 ATS (-47.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 10-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (40 - 46) at INDIANA (58 - 28) - 4/28/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
ATLANTA is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996.
INDIANA is 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) second half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 10-10 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 11-10 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (63 - 22) at DALLAS (51 - 34) - 4/28/2014, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 47-38 ATS (+5.2 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
DALLAS is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 215-168 ATS (+30.2 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 148-115 ATS (+21.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 121-93 ATS (+18.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
DALLAS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 11-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 28

Miami at Charlotte, 7:00 ET
Miami: 9-2 SU after allowing 85 points or less
Charlotte: 1-5 SU off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals

Atlanta at Indiana, 8:05 ET
Atlanta: 11-28 ATS in road games in all playoff games
Indiana: 11-28 ATS in road games in all playoff games

San Antonio at Dallas, 9:35 ET
San Antonio: 11-2 ATS after 2 consecutive division games
Dallas: 4-12 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 28

Miami has won 18 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-7 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered 10 of last 13 series games- they made 29 of 64 from arc first three games. Miami subs are killing Charlotte's; in first three games, Miami's subs combined to be +137; Charlotte's bench was -78. Heat was -3 with Dwyane Wade on floor in first two games, +31 when he was off floor. Under is 26-15-1 in Charlotte home games.

Dallas subs were -33 in Game 3, but Carter hit 3-ball from left corner to win game, Mavs' second straight series win after they had lost ten in a row vs Spurs. Dallas is just 5-5 in last ten home games. Spurs lost four of last five road games but are 25-17 vs spread overall on foreign soil. Spurs lost last two games, despite shooting 50%+ from floor both times. Over is 25-17 in Dallas home games this year.

Pacers are now 8-11 in last 19 games, 8-26-1 against spread in last 35, as they head back home for pivotal Game 5. Indiana is 4-4 vs Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won eight of last twelve games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game 4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was just 15-50 from floor in last two games; Indiana blocked 11 shots in Game 4- they had give guys with two blocks each.




NBA

Monday, April 28

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CHARLOTTE
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing Miami
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

8:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANA
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
Indiana is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Indiana is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

9:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio


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NBA

Monday, April 28

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Mavericks
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San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (+4, 203)

The NBA playoffs have yielded unexpected results so far, with the Dallas Mavericks providing a stunning scenario in a best-of-seven matchup with top-seeded San Antonio in the West. The Mavericks look to build off a dramatic Game 3 win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday. After snapping the Spurs' 16-game home winning streak in Game 2, Dallas got a last-second 3-pointer by Vince Carter to steal a 109-108 win in Game 3 on Saturday.

Monta Ellis scored 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter for the Mavericks, who also won at home against San Antonio for the first time in over two years. Ellis was part of an eighth-seeded Golden State team that knocked out No. 1 Dallas in 2007, so he understands the mentality that is necessary at this point in time. "We're not getting ahead of ourselves," he said after Saturday's victory. "We're not going to get big-headed because we've won two games."

LINE HISTORY: The Mavericks opened as 4-point home dogs. The total opened at 203.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHY BET THE SPURS: San Antonio has struggled to get consistent production from the supporting cast around the star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili - who have combined to average 56 points on 53.8 percent shooting in the series. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter shook off their struggles to combine for 31 points, 18 rebounds and six steals in Game 3, but fellow starter Danny Green continued to be a non-factor, making one of his five shot attempts in a rather insignificant 13 minutes. Green averaged 12.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting versus Dallas during the regular season, but has only three baskets in 59 minutes in the series.

WHY BET THE MAVERICKS: Dallas was outrebounded by San Antonio in all four regular-season meetings and again in Game 1 before winning the battle on the glass in Game 2 and holding its own in Game 3, when the Spurs had a 36-35 edge. Some of the credit for the turnaround goes to Samuel Dalembert, who grabbed 6.8 rebounds per game during the regular season but has averaged 8.3 in the series, including 10 to go along with four blocked shots on Saturday. Dalembert also went 5-for-5 from the line, including two big ones in the final minute, as Dallas bumped its free-throw percentage for the series to 83.3 percent, compared to 72.1 for San Antonio.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of the wagers are on the Spurs -4.

[StarDust Bum]

Take the money and run: Biggest betting streaks

ATS hot streak

Dallas Mavericks

If Vince Carter’s desperation last-second shot had caromed off the rim instead of going through the net in Game 3, this series would be just about where everyone thought it would be. But here we are, with the aging Mavericks somehow up two games to one against the similarly-aging Spurs. The Mavs have been dogs in all three games (+9.5 and +7.5 at San Antonio, and +3.5 at home), and the SU victory in Game 3 did nothing to change the minds of oddsmakers, who have made San Antonio a 4-point favorite for Game 4. It’s important to remember that the Spurs do not panic in situations like this, and will redouble their efforts defensively.

Next: Tonight at Dallas (Mavericks +4)


ATS cold streak

Los Angeles Clippers

Oddsmakers have come to the conclusion that those racial rants by Clippers owner Donald Sterling are a case of Donald being Donald, and said Clippers will be giving in the vicinity of six to seven points to Golden State when Game 5 of this series takes place Tuesday night. Two games have been tight and two have been blowouts, and the series has now come down to a best-of-three, with a possible deciding Game 7 at Staples Center. Will Sterling show up Tuesday night, what kind of circus would that create and how will the team deal with it? Fortunately, Clips coach Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the NBA and will do everything possible to keep the players focused on the game.

Next: Tuesday night at L.A. (Clippers -6.5)


Over/under streak

Montreal Canadiens

OK, time again for Bruins-Canadiens, and doesn’t it seem to come down to these teams just about every season? And no doubt Montreal would love a free-wheeling series like the one it just finished against the Lightning. Two games went over and two were pushes, which raised a few eyebrows because the Canadiens were the ninth-best defensive team in the league and Tampa Bay was ranked 11th. Combined, they put the puck in the net 26 times in the four games. It’s unlikely that any of the games in Boston will be set at 5.5 goals, but if the first two games are high-scoring the extra half-goal could be tacked on when the series shifts to Canada.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Playoff Tips

April 28, 2014


Heat (-7 ½, 188) at Bobcats – 7:05 PM EST – TNT

Miami leads series, 3-0

In the least surprising outcome so far in the NBA playoffs, the Heat are one win away from sweeping the upstart Bobcats and advancing to the second round. Charlotte has still never won a playoff game in its 10 seasons in the league (0-7), as Miami used a 21-6 run at the end of the first half in Saturday’s Game 3 triumph to take the commanding 3-0 series edge.

LeBron James scored the final nine points of the first half in Saturday’s 98-85 victory to easily cash as 4 ½-point road favorites for the 19th straight win over the Bobcats since 2010. After failing to cover in Game 2 as double-digit favorites, the Heat improved to 2-1 ATS through the first three games of this series, while covering all three contests at Time Warner Cable Arena this season. Only three Heat players scored in double-figures in Game 3 (led by James’ 30), while Miami and Charlotte combined to score 32 points in the final quarter to finish ‘under’ the total of 187 ½.

Following the loss in Game 3, the Bobcats dropped to 5-2 ATS the last seven games in the home underdog role. The ‘under’ has hit in four of the past five contests at Time Warner Cable Arena, while limiting four opponents in this span to less than 100 points. Miami has drilled the ‘under’ in four of the last six road contests, as five of those opponents were held to 98 points or fewer.

Hawks at Pacers (-7, 186 ½) – 8:05 PM EST – NBA TV

Series tied at 2-2

Atlanta had an opportunity to throw a knock-out punch on top-seeded Indiana in Game 4, but the Pacers hit a pair of three-pointers in the final two minutes to seal a 91-88 victory on Saturday to even the series at two apiece. Paul George and David West drilled three-pointers to overcome a 10-point deficit and save Indiana’s season, while the Pacers covered as 2 ½-point favorites to regain the home-court advantage.

Indiana’s defense stepped up in the second half, limiting Atlanta to 40 points and 35% shooting from the floor to square the series. Following an ‘over’ in the series opener, each of the last three games between the Hawks and Pacers have finished ‘under’ the total. Frank Vogel’s club will look to turn around its pointspread problems as a home favorite, posting a 2-10 ATS record the last 12 when laying points at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Since April 4, the Hawks own a 9-3 ATS record the last 12 games, while cashing in five of its past six contests away from Philips Arena. However, Atlanta has the odds stacked against them tonight, at least according to last season’s 4-1 SU/ATS record by home teams in Game 5 of a playoff series tied at 2-2. Included in that dominating mark by home clubs was the 106-83 rout by the Pacers over the Hawks in Game 5 as seven-point favorites, as Indiana would eventually win the series, 4-2.

Spurs (-4, 203) at Mavericks – 9:35 PM EST – TNT

Dallas leads series, 2-1

The top overall seed in the NBA needs to get on track on fast, as San Antonio looks to even up its first round series with rival Dallas tonight. Vince Carter’s three-pointer at the buzzer in Game 3 gave Dallas its second straight win over San Antonio following 10 consecutive losses to the Spurs in a 109-108 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs. Both teams shot over 50% from the floor, while Monta Ellis paced the Mavericks with a game-high 29 points.

San Antonio has lost consecutive games for just the second time since the end of January, as one of those losing streaks came at the end of the regular season when the Spurs had nothing to play for. Gregg Popovich’s team has failed to cover a game against the Mavs in this series, while posting a 3-7 ATS record since a 19-game winning streak. Eight times the Spurs have allowed at least 100 points since that hot streak, while allowing at least 109 points in back-to-back contests for the first time all season.

Dallas enters tonight’s action losers of six straight games off a home victory dating back to March 11, but Rick Carlisle’s team has covered three consecutive times in the role of a home underdog. The Mavs have eclipsed the 100-point mark in each of the last 10 games at the American Airlines Center, resulting in an 8-2 record to the ‘over.’

[StarDust Bum]

2014 Playoff Results

April 28, 2014


Betting Results

First Round
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 14-16 14-16
Against the Spread 7-22-1 11-18-1
Total
Over-Under 20-10


Eastern Conference First Round

(1) Indiana vs. (8) Atlanta
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Atlanta (+8, +350) at Indiana 101-93 Underdog Over (185.5)
2 Atlanta at Indiana (-7.5) 101-85 Favorite Under (187)
3 Indiana at Atlanta (+2.5, +120) 98-85 Underdog Under (187)
4 Indiana (-2.5) at Atlanta 91-88 Favorite Under (188.5)
5 Atlanta at Indiana - - -
6 Indiana at Atlanta - - -
7 Atlanta at Indiana - - -


(2) Miami vs. (7) Charlotte
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 99-88 Favorite Over (186)
2 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 101-97 Underdog Over (187.5)
3 Miami (-4.5) at Charlotte 98-85 Favorite Under (187.5)
4 Miami at Charlotte - - -
5 Charlotte at Miami - - -
6 Miami at Charlotte - - -
7 Charlotte at Miami - - -


(3) Toronto vs. (6) Brooklyn
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Brooklyn (+3.5, +145) at Toronto 94-87 Underdog Under (192.5)
2 Brooklyn at Toronto (-5) 100-95 Push Over (191)
3 Toronto at Brooklyn (-5) 102-98 Underdog Over (191)
4 Toronto (+4, +160) at Brooklyn 87-79 Underdog Under (193)
5 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -
6 Toronto at Brooklyn - - -
7 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -


(4) Chicago vs. (5) Washington
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+4.5, +170) at Chicago 102-93 Underdog Over (178.5)
2 Washington (+5, +200) at Chicago 101-99 (OT) Underdog Over (180.5)
3 Chicago (+2.5, +130) at Washington 100-97 Underdog Over (180.5)
4 Chicago at Washington (-2) 98-89 Favorite Over (183.5)
5 Washington at Chicago - - -
6 Chicago at Washington - - -
7 Washington at Chicago - - -



Western Conference First Round

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Dallas
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Dallas at San Antonio (-9) 90-85 Underdog Under (203.5)
2 Dallas (+7.5, +300) at San Antonio 113-92 Underdog Over (201.5)
3 San Antonio at Dallas (+3.5, +150) 109-108 Underdog Over (200)
4 San Antonio at Dallas - - -
5 Dallas at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Dallas - - -
7 Dallas at San Antonio - - -


(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Memphis
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Memphis at Oklahoma City (-8) 100-86 Favorite Under (190.5)
2 Memphis (+7, +290) at Oklahoma City 111-105 (OT) Underdog Over (190.5)
3 Oklahoma City at Memphis (+2.5, +125) 98-95 (OT) Underdog Over (190)
4 Oklahoma City (-3.5) at Memphis 92-89 (OT) Underdog Under (188)
5 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -
6 Oklahoma City at Memphis - - -
7 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -


(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Golden State
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Golden State (+7.5, +310) at Los Angeles 109-105 Underdog Over (211)
2 Golden State at Los Angeles (-8) 138-98 Favorite Over (212.5)
3 Los Angeles (-3) at Golden State 98-96 Underdog Under (212)
4 Los Angeles at Golden State (+1.5, +105) 118-97 Underdog Over (209.5)
5 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -
6 Los Angeles at Golden State - - -
7 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -


(4) Houston vs. (5) Portland
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Portland (+5.5, +190) at Houston 122-120 (OT) Underdog Over (215.5)
2 Portland (+6.5, +270) at Houston 112-105 Underdog Over (215)
3 Houston (+2.5, +110) at Portland 121-116 (OT) Underdog Over (214.5)
4 Houston at Portland (-3.5) 123-120 (OT) Underdog Over (215)
5 Portland at Houston - - -
6 Houston at Portland - - -
7 Portland at Houston - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Record in the playoffs as of Sunday Night :

13 - 11 ..............................*****

9 - 7 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 10...............................TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, April 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami -8 500 *****

Charlotte - Over 187.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +7 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Indiana - Over 186.5 500 *****


San Antonio - 9:30 PM ET Dallas +4 500 TRIPLE PLAY6

Dallas - Over 200 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Missouri hired alum Kim Anderson as its new hoop coach; they spent $42,000 oin a search firm to hire a D-II coach who played/coached at Mizzou. Oy.

-- Meanwhile, Ben Howland coached in three Final Fours but can't get a job.

-- Bryce Harper needs thumb surgery, is out until mid-July.

-- Heat 109, Bobcats 98-- Miami has won 20 in a row over Charlotte, which has still never won a playoff game. Not a lot of competition there.

-- Hawks 107, Pacers 97-- Indiana is 0-10 in series when they trailed 3-2.

-- Dodgers have a $240 payroll, but they’re 0-5 at home vs lefty starting pitchers

*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.......

13) I deferred to my friend John for this question, since I wasn’t sure if my personal bias had tinted my opinion: who is the best shortstop of all-time? John is a wiser man than I, has seen more than I have. His answer: “ARod was the best since I’ve been alive in combining offense and defense.”John views shortstop as an 80-20 split between defense/offense, so he also mentioned Ozzie Smith/Omar Vizquel. There you have it, an opinion from a baseball scholar.

12) We listed down below how Rod Carew’s 29 bunt hits in 1974 helped his batting average; John points out that a stellar defender like Ozzie Smith or nowadays, Nolan Arenado at third base will rob hitters of more than one hit a week, so what is their value to a pitching staff and a team? One key play can bail a pitcher out of a jam, give him momentum; the effect can be hard to quantify.

11) Quirk to NFL schedule this season: no AFC teams on Thanksgiving Day. Bears-Lions will be the CBS game. Another quirk: 49ers can’t host a night game on a weeknight this year, unless it is a holiday, because powers-that-be in Santa Clara, where their new stadium is, don’t know how that would affect traffic. Apparently it’s a one-year thing.

10) If Oklahoma City goes on to win the NBA title, the 3-ball Reggie Jackson hit in Game 4, when Thunder was down 5 with about a minute left, that could very well be the turning point in their season. Huge shot.

9) A’s Brandon Moss got hit by a pitch twice in the 9th inning Friday; last time that happened was June 8, 2012, when David DeJesus got hit twice in the 7th inning of a game.

8) Clippers didn't practice Monday, the day before Game 5 of a playoff serries that is tied 2-2. How is this acceptable? Everyone knows Donald Sterling is a racist scumbag, we get it. Despite that, coaches/players are paid millions to compete and play basketball for people who pay a lot of money to watch them. Its their job.

So the NBA will suspend Sterling Tuesday, as Adam Silver does his job, but who on the Clippers is doing theirs? Players should be selfish and play for each other, for the chance to win a championship. Laying down this week serves no purpose.

7) There are 40 bowl games now, counting the national title game? That means 78 of 128 I-A teams are in a bowl? I like watching these games, but bowls are supposed to be a reward. Teams that finish under .500 don’t deserve a reward.

6) Atlanta’s Alex Wood is 1-3 in his last four starts, but losses were 2-1/1-0/1-0; he’s allowed five runs in his last 28 IP, so he’s pitching really well, just not getting any run support.

5) My hometown of Albany isn’t the most exciting place, but the Denny’s on Wolf Road can be entertaining at 5am on a Saturday night. I go there sometimes after I finish writing; always good for a laugh. Usually one table (not me) tries to bolt their check, the police come, and there is a lot of screaming. They actually have two security guards working there on weekends. Good stuff.

4) Cure Auto Insurance is running commercials with Michael Vick as its spokesman. Not sure who advised them this was a good strategy, but would you buy insurance based on what Michael Vick said?

3) Saw the Jon Gruden/Johnny Manziel QB camp thing on ESPN. Manziel lit up when asked about calling line protections; at Texas A&M, the center does it, but obviously, Johnny Football would’ve liked to do it. Interesting bit of TV.

2) Rod Carew had 29 bunt singles in 1974, when he batted .364 in 599 AB’s. Without those 29 bunt hits, he’s a .316 hitter that year, so as Kevin Costner said in Bull Durham, adding one hit a week to your batting average is worth around 45-50 points to your batting average.

1) RIP, Dr Jack Ramsay, who coached the Portland Trailblazers to their only NBA title, in 1977. Sharp guy, was an avid runner. He ran a triathlon when he was 70. years old. 70. Learned a lot from listening to him work games on the radio/TV after his coaching days were done. Thanks, coach.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at Oklahoma City
The venue shifts back to Oklahoma City tonight for the pivotal Game 5 in the series and has the Grizzlies coming in with a 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 games at OKC. Memphis is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 29

Game 507-508: Washington at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.565; Chicago 118.502
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Memphis at Oklahoma City (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.842; Oklahoma City 124.217
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: Golden State at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 122.329; LA Clippers 125.881
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+6 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 29

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WASHINGTON (47 - 39) at CHICAGO (49 - 37) - 4/29/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 91-74 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games this season.
CHICAGO is 39-54 ATS (-20.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 9-5 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 8-6 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (52 - 34) at OKLAHOMA CITY (61 - 25) - 4/29/2014, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 95-80 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 83-69 ATS (+7.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-37 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 96-80 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 13-6 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-10 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (53 - 33) at LA CLIPPERS (59 - 27) - 4/29/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 47-38 ATS (+5.2 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 96-81 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 69-50 ATS (+14.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-26 ATS (+6.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 197-248 ATS (-75.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 157-217 ATS (-81.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 112-150 ATS (-53.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-6 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-7 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 29

Washington won seven of last eight games overall, with last six going over total, but they haven't won playoff series since '05; can they take care of business and eliminate Bulls here? Chicago lost five of last seven games, with six of last seven going over. All four series have gone over total; Bulls lost previous two games here, by 9-2 points. Wizard bench is just 8-24 from floor last two games; win here gives starters little rest.

Last three Griz-Thunder games went OT, after OC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at halftime won all four series games. Both Thunder wins stayed under total; both Memphis wins went over. OC is 22-86 from arc in last three games, shooting under 40% from floor in all three games- five of their last eight games went over. Griz outscored OC 28-16 in 4th quarter to force OT, after blowing 5-point lead in last 1:20.

Numbers don't really matter in Warrior-Clipper series, which became a media circus with off-court issues dominating. Do Clippers want to be playing anymore? They didn't practice Monday. NBA will probably ban Sterling indefinitely this afternoon, in which case this becomes total crapshoot. LA won nine of its last 14 games, with 11 of those 14 going over the total. Warriors won seven of last eleven games overall; under is 48-36 in their games this year, 25-18 on road. If somehow NBA doesn't ban Sterling this afternoon, Clippers aren't going to win.




NBA

Tuesday, April 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

9:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Memphis's last 21 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Memphis is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

10:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. LA CLIPPERS
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Golden State is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 10 of the LA Clippers last 13 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Golden State


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NBA

Tuesday, April 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Grizzlies at Thunder
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6, 186.5)

Series tied 2-2.

There was a different star on the big stage to keep Oklahoma City from falling into a big hole and the Thunder look to take a 3-2 series lead when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook suffering through horrific shooting performances, backup guard Reggie Jackson stepped up as the premier option with a career-best 32 points in Saturday’s overtime win. Each of the last three games has gone into overtime.

Jackson’s exploits allowed Oklahoma City to regain homecourt advantage and keep the Thunder from needing to reel off three consecutive victories. The Grizzlies blew a five-point lead late in regulation of Game 4 – Jackson scored the final five of the fourth quarter for Oklahoma City – as poor free-throw shooting (13-of-23) and lack of killer instinct came back to haunt them. Memphis guard Tony Allen has taken on the task of guarding Durant and helped hound the league’s scoring champ to 5-of-21 shooting. Westbrook struggled his way to 6-of-24 from the field and is shooting 19.4 percent from 3-point range in the series.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Tennessee (Memphis), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as high as -6.5 but has been bet down half a point. The total opened 187 and early action trimmed it to 186.5.

INJURY REPORT: Memphis - N. Calathes (Out - Suspension)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph had his worst outing of the series with 11 points in Game 4 and is just 10-of-34 from the field over the past two games. His substandard play caused him to spend a lot of time on the bench in the second half of Saturday’s game and Memphis needs him to put on a much better display on Tuesday. Randolph is shooting just 36 percent from the field in the series despite averaging 18.3 points and he was one of the culprits of the Grizzlies’ poor free-throw shooting as he missed four of his five attempts.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Jackson was a non-factor over the first three games when he averaged five points on 3-of-19 shooting before going 11-of-16 in Game 4. Both Durant and Westbrook recognized they were struggling and acquiesced to the third-year pro, who single-handedly prevented Oklahoma City from losing in regulation. “I was seeing it in their eyes – they wanted me to keep going,” Jackson told reporters. “I was bringing it up and they weren’t stopping me. We lean on our two stars but their shots weren’t going.”

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Grizzlies are 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bets are on Memphis +6 while 71 percent are on Over 186.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Western Conference Tips

April 28, 2014


Memphis (52-34) at Oklahoma City (61-25)

Western Conference First Round
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma City -6, Total: 186.5

After playing three straight overtime games, the Thunder and Grizzlies square off in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday night with the winner gaining a 3-2 lead in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

Oklahoma City squandered a 14-point lead on Saturday night, but was able to come back and win Game 4, 92-89 in overtime. Through the first three games this series, the team was relying way too much on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Those two once again struggled from the field, but PG Reggie Jackson scored a playoff career-high 32 points with nine rebounds, and made all the plays down the stretch to get the victory. A big reason why the Thunder were able to get the victory was the domination on the glass, as the team outrebounded Memphis, 58-49 with 20 offensive boards. This series has been extremely competitive, and free throws will likely play a huge role in the game.

On Saturday, the Thunder were able to connect on 90% FT (18-of-20), while the Grizzlies made a dismal 57% FT (13-of-23). Memphis has dominated inside throughout the series in the first three games, but posted a mere 40-36 advantage in points in the paint for Game 4. Memphis has to hit better from the three-point line (6-of-20 on Saturday), to help open things up for Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol in the post. This club is also a mere 6-23 ATS (21%) after three straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers this season, but is also 27-14 ATS (66%) versus very good teams (6+ PPG margin) in the past two seasons.

While the Grizzlies are an excellent team on two days' rest this season (10-5-1 ATS), it is a pedestrian 24-19 SU (20-21-2 ATS) on the road and 10-15 SU (12-13 ATS) as road underdogs. Oklahoma City is 35-8 SU (24-18-1 ATS) at home this season, but is just 32-28 ATS after an SU win and 34-34-2 ATS when favored. There are no significant injuries for either team.

Marc Gasol (17.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.3 APG this series) had another big performance for the Grizzlies in Game 4, leading the team with 23 points and 11 rebounds, while adding four assists and two blocks. He continues to dominate from the free-throw line extended, opening up opportunities for teammates in the paint.

One of those guys was SG Tony Allen (12.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG this series), who finished with 14 points and 13 rebounds in Saturday's loss. He was especially dominant on the offensive glass, grabbing 10 offensive rebounds. But if the Grizzlies are going to win this series, they are going to have to get a more out of star PF Zach Randolph (18.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.3 APG this series). While those numbers aren’t bad, he has shot only 36% from the field, which is a far cry from his 47% FG clip during the regular season. The athleticism of Serge Ibaka and physicality of Kendrick Perkins has given Randolph a lot of problems.

SF Mike Miller (5.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG this series) and SG Courtney Lee (10.8 PPG on 46% FG in series) are the two best 3-point shooters on the team, and they connected on 4-of-11 from deep in Game 4.

Saturday was a struggle for PG Mike Conley (17.3 PPG, 9.0 APG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 APG this series), who finished with 14 points on a woeful 5-of-16 from the field and 0-6 from three-point range. The Grizzlies missed a golden opportunity with the Thunder stars struggling, and they can't bank on them having another poor performance again.

Oklahoma City SF Kevin Durant (28.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.3 BPG, 1.3 SPG in series) and PG Russell Westbrook (24.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) combined to score only 30 points in Game 4 on a brutal 11-of-45 FG (24%) and 2-of-13 threes. The duo had more turnovers (12) than shots made from the field (11). The fact that the Thunder were able to get the victory with their two stars struggling so much, is a huge accomplishment. But despite the poor shooting, each contributed greatly in other ways, as Durant grabbed 13 rebounds with four assists, two blocks and two steals, while Westbrook finished with nine rebounds, seven assists and three steals.

PG Reggie Jackson (11.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG in series) has shown the ability to dominate a game, and he chose the right night to do this. He was able to get his 32 points on only 16 shots (11-of-16 FG), while knocking down all eight of his free-throw attempts. He is similar to Westbrook in the fact that he can get to the rim often, and he also played terrific defense against Conley.

PF Serge Ibaka (14.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.5 BPG in series) posted a strong double-double of 12 points, 14 rebounds (5 offensive) and had five of his team's 11 blocked shots. C Kendrick Perkins (4.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG in series) is not putting up huge numbers, but he has been huge for the Thunder in terms of defending Randolph.

Reserve SF Caron Butler (4.5 PPG on 27% FG in series) was able to hit two three-pointers from the outside, and will need to continue to knock down long-range jumpers to help open up more driving lanes for Westbrook and Durant.

Golden State (53-33) at L.A. Clippers (59-27)

Western Conference First Round
Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -6.5, Total: 210.5

A back-and-forth series heads back to L.A. on Tuesday night as the Clippers try to tame the “splash brothers” and take a 3-2 series lead against the Warriors.

The momentum has been swinging wildly in this series through the first four contests, and has seen two games decided by four points or less as well as two blowouts, one by each club. Golden State crushed the Los Angeles in Sunday's Game 4 as 1.5-point home underdogs, prevailing 118-97 while shooting an incredible 55.4% from the field. The Warriors were finally able to play their game that helped them into the playoffs as they drained 15-of-32 threes while forcing 19 turnovers.

The Clippers could not find their rhythm, making just 33-of-77 shots (42.9% FG) and 10-of-31 threes (32.3%), while getting little contribution from starting C DeAndre Jordan or anyone on their bench not named Jamal Crawford. Golden State should feel fairly comfortable playing away from the confines of home, as it is 25-18 SU (24-19 ATS) when playing on the road this season.

On the other hand, L.A. should be ecstatic to go home since it is one of the best teams in front of its fans this season, going 35-8 SU and 22-21 ATS. So far on the year, these two clubs have split their eight matchups (SU and ATS) while the Warriors hold a slight 9-7 SU edge (10-6 ATS) over the past three seasons.

Bettors should be aware that Golden State usually plays very well in April, as the club is 20-6 ATS (77%) in this month over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers are an impressive 13-2 ATS (87%) when coming off of an upset loss this season.

The only injury of significance in this contest is that of C Andrew Bogut (ribs) for the Warriors, and he is expected to miss the entirety of the postseason.

Over the first three games of this series, Golden State was unable to get its long-range shooting down, hitting just 21-of-77 threes (27%). The Warriors lit it up in Sunday's Game 4 though, making 15-of-32 threes (47%), which helped them get an early lead and keep it throughout the game.

PG Stephen Curry (21.8 PPG, 9.3 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) took charge in the contest, tying a franchise playoff record with five threes in the first quarter and making 7-of-14 overall on his way to a near triple-double (33 points, 7 assists, 7 rebounds). He finally decided to come out and take charge in the series as he took 20 field-goal attempts in the game, his highest total so far in the postseason.

SG Klay Thompson (17.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG in playoffs) fouled out of Sunday's game, but not before getting 15 points, five rebounds and five assists in just 29 minutes on the floor. He already has two performances of 22+ points in this series, and his long-range game is important in order for Golden State to have a chance.

PF David Lee (14.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG in playoffs) has surprisingly not had a double-double in any of his past three games, but was very efficient in Game 4, scoring 15 points (7-for-11 FG) to go along with two steals.

SF Andre Iguodala (11.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) hit both of his three-pointers and 6-of-8 shots on Sunday while being the main facilitator on the team with nine assists.

The Clippers had the top offense in the league during the regular season (107.9 PPG), but have failed to crack the 100-point mark in either of their past two games while shooting just 44.8% FG and 30.5% threes combined.

PF Blake Griffin (26.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) has been the key player in this series, and when he has scored more than 30 points, the team has won. He will need to be more involved in the next game if the team does not want to suffer another upset loss, as he took only 14 shots on Sunday, and 13 shots in Game 1, while averaging 21 attempts in the team’s wins.

PG Chris Paul (17.8 PPG, 8.5 APG, 5.0 RPG, 3.0 SPG in playoffs) had only six assists in Game 4, and is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game, a much higher mark than the 2.3 TOPG that he squandered during the regular season. He has not been able to be as much of a nuisance on the defensive side of the ball in the past two games either, and after getting nine steals in the first two contests, he has just three steals in the past two games.

C DeAndre Jordan (9.0 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 4.3 BPG in playoffs) had a very disappointing effort on Sunday, putting up a goose egg in the points column while taking just one shot and getting a series-low six rebounds and two blocks over 25 minutes on the floor. He was a force in the paint over the previous three games, recording five blocks in each contest.

SG Jamal Crawford (14.3 PPG in playoffs) had averaged just 10.3 PPG over the first three contests in this series, but exploded for a team-high 26 points on Sunday. He was the only player off the bench to have any effect on the game as the rest of the L.A. reserves combined to score just 12 points on 5-of-19 shooting.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Playoff Tip Sheet

April 29, 2014


**Wizards at Bulls**

-- This best-of-seven series heads back to Chicago for Game 5 with Washington (47-39 straight up, 46-39-1 against the spread) looking for the kill shot. The Wizards took a 3-1 advantage by winning Sunday's Game 4 by a 98-89 count as two-point home favorites. Trevor Ariza was the catalyst with a team-best 30 points and eight rebounds. Bradley Beal and Marcin Gortat added 18 and 17 points, respectively, while John Wall finished with 15 points and 10 assists.

-- In Sunday's losing effort, Taj Gibson scored a game-high 32 points by making 13-of-16 shots from the field. Jimmy Butler added 16 points for the Bulls, who trailed by 10 at the end of the first quarter, by 15 at intermission and by 20 going into the final stanza. Joakim Noah finished with 10 points, 15 boards and five assists.

-- After allowing fourth-quarter leads to get away in Games 1 and 2 at home, Chicago (49-37 SU, 42-43-1 ATS) won a 100-97 decision at Washington in Friday night's Game 3 at Verizon Center. The Bulls won outright as 2.5-point underdogs, while the 197 combined points soared 'over' the 180.5-point total. Mike Dunleavy Jr. erupted for a game-high 35 points thanks to a 8-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.

-- For Tuesday's Game 5, most books have the Bulls installed as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 183.5. Gamblers can back the Wizards on the money line for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

-- Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price as Washington -550, with the Bulls available at +400 on the comeback.

-- The 'over' is 46-40 for the Wizards, 26-17 in their road assignments.

-- The 'under' is 48-38 for the Bulls, 27-16 in their home outings.

-- The 'over' has hit in all four games of this series and is on a 7-1 run in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these Eastern Conference rivals.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**Grizzlies at Thunder** -- Trailing this first-round series 2-1 in Game 4 at Memphis, Oklahoma City (61-25 SU, 44-39-3 ATS) pulled even thanks to Saturday's 92-89 overtime win as a three-point 'chalk.' The 181 combined points stayed 'under' the 188-point total despite the extra session. On a night when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to make only 11-of-45 shots from the field, Reggie Jackson exploded for 32 points off the bench to lead the Thunder to victory. The Boston College product made 11-of-16 attempts from the field and converted all eight of his trips to the charity stripe. Durant scored 15 points, pulled down 13 rebounds, dished out four assists, made two steals and blocked a pair of shots. Westbrook finished with 15 points, nine boards, seven assists and three steals, while Serge Ibaka produced 12 points, 14 board and five blocked shots.

-- In the Game 4 loss, Marc Gasol tallied 23 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots for the Grizzlies, who made just 13-of-23 free throws compared to 18-of-20 for the Thunder. Mike Conley Jr. had 14 points and 10 assists, while Tony Allen had 14 points and 13 boards. Allen's defense on Durant throughout the series has been nothing short of sensational.

-- Prior to his Game 4 eruption, Jackson had made only 3-of-19 shots in the first three games of this best-of-seven set.

-- This series has featured three consecutive overtime games. The only other time that's happened in NBA postseason history was the epic 2009 series waged between the Celtics and Bulls.

-- In Game 3, Memphis (52-34 SU, 38-44-4 ATS) won 98-95 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Conley led the way with a team-best 20 points and Zach Randolph produced 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Durant and Westbrook had 30 points apiece in the losing effort, but Durant made only 10-of-27 shots from the field and missed all eight of his attempts from 3-point range.

-- Randolph was held to a series low 11 points in Game 4. He has drained just 10-of-34 shots in the last two contests.

-- Westbrook has made only 19.4 percent of his 3-pointers in this series.

-- Assuming OKC's veteran reserve guard Derek Fisher gets playing time in Game 5, he'll break Robert Horry's record for career playoff games with his 245th appearance in postseason history.

-- The 'under' is 45-41 overall for the Grizzlies, 27-16 in their road assignments.

-- The 'over' is 44-42 overall for OKC, 22-21 in its home games.

-- The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag: OKC -330, Memphis +265.

-- Tip-off is slated for 9:35 p.m. Eastern on NBA-TV.

**Warriors at Clippers**

-- For Game 5 at Staples Center, most books have Los Angeles (59-27 SU, 47-38-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 210. Bettors can take the Warriors to win outright for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240). For first-half wagers, the Clippers are favored by 3.5 with a total of 106.

-- Golden St. (53-33 SU, 44-39-3 ATS) won Game 4 in blowout fashion just 24 hours after a TMZ report rocked the Clippers organization. The website released a tape of a conversation between owner Donald Sterling and his ex-girlfriend in which Sterling (allegedly) makes racist remarks. The NBA is expected to come down hard on Sterling on Tuesday and it's almost inconceivable that he'll be able to keep the team pending the Association taking care of everything from a legal standpoint. In protest before Game 4, the Clippers went to midcourt and each player removed his warm-up top featuring the team's mascot. The undershirts were turned inside-out to hide the mascot.

-- Whether it was being distracted by the controversy or not, the Clippers got blasted by a 118-97 score in Game 4. Golden St. won outright as a two-point home underdog behind the stellar play of All-Star guard Steph Curry, who had 33 points, seven rebounds and seven assists compared to only two turnovers. Andre Iguodala added 22 points, nine assists and four rebounds. David Lee, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson chipped in 15 points apiece.

-- Jamal Crawford had a team-high 26 points for L.A. in the Game 4 setback. Blake Griffin added 21 points but his plus/minus rating was -22. Chris Paul had 16 points, six assists and five rebounds, but he committed four turnovers.

-- After losing Game 1 in large part due to Griffin's foul trouble, the Clippers bounced back to win Games 2 and 3. In Game 3 at Golden St., L.A. captured a 98-96 victory but disappointed its backers by giving up a backdoor cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Clippers were outscored by nine points in the fourth quarter and failed to take the cash due to abysmal 10-of-23 shooting from the free-throw line. Griffin scored 32 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while DeAndre Jordan finished with 14 points, 22 boards and five blocked shots.

-- Jordan was held scoreless and took only one shot in 25 minutes of playing time in Game 4.

-- Draymond Green was inserted into the starting lineup for Golden St. in Game 4. He played 41 minutes and finished with four points (just four shots attempted), five rebounds, five assists, two steals and two blocked shots. Those stats certainly don't jump off the paper, but Green had the best plus/minus rating of the game at +33.

-- The 'over' is on a 6-1 run for the Warriors, who have seen the 'under' go 25-18 in their road contests.

-- The 'over' is on a 10-3 run in the last 13 meetings between these Western Conference rivals.

-- Sportsbook's updated series price: L.A. -330, Golden St. +265.

[StarDust Bum]

2014 Playoff Results

April 29, 2014


Betting Results

First Round
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up 16-17 14-19
Against the Spread 8-24-1 12-20-1
Total
Over-Under 22-11


Eastern Conference First Round

(1) Indiana vs. (8) Atlanta
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Atlanta (+8, +350) at Indiana 101-93 Underdog Over (185.5)
2 Atlanta at Indiana (-7.5) 101-85 Favorite Under (187)
3 Indiana at Atlanta (+2.5, +120) 98-85 Underdog Under (187)
4 Indiana (-2.5) at Atlanta 91-88 Favorite Under (188.5)
5 Atlanta (+7, +260) at Indiana 107-97 Underdog Over (186.5)
6 Indiana at Atlanta - - -
7 Atlanta at Indiana - - -


(2) Miami vs. (7) Charlotte (Heat wins 4-0)
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 99-88 Favorite Over (186)
2 Charlotte at Miami (-10) 101-97 Underdog Over (187.5)
3 Miami (-4.5) at Charlotte 98-85 Favorite Under (187.5)
4 Miami (-8) at Charlotte 109-98 Favorite Over (187.5)


(3) Toronto vs. (6) Brooklyn
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Brooklyn (+3.5, +145) at Toronto 94-87 Underdog Under (192.5)
2 Brooklyn at Toronto (-5) 100-95 Push Over (191)
3 Toronto at Brooklyn (-5) 102-98 Underdog Over (191)
4 Toronto (+4, +160) at Brooklyn 87-79 Underdog Under (193)
5 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -
6 Toronto at Brooklyn - - -
7 Brooklyn at Toronto - - -


(4) Chicago vs. (5) Washington
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Washington (+4.5, +170) at Chicago 102-93 Underdog Over (178.5)
2 Washington (+5, +200) at Chicago 101-99 (OT) Underdog Over (180.5)
3 Chicago (+2.5, +130) at Washington 100-97 Underdog Over (180.5)
4 Chicago at Washington (-2) 98-89 Favorite Over (183.5)
5 Washington at Chicago - - -
6 Chicago at Washington - - -
7 Washington at Chicago - - -



Western Conference First Round

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Dallas
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Dallas at San Antonio (-9) 90-85 Underdog Under (203.5)
2 Dallas (+7.5, +300) at San Antonio 113-92 Underdog Over (201.5)
3 San Antonio at Dallas (+3.5, +150) 109-108 Underdog Over (200)
4 San Antonio (-4.5) at Dallas 93-89 Underdog Under (201)
5 Dallas at San Antonio - - -
6 San Antonio at Dallas - - -
7 Dallas at San Antonio - - -


(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Memphis
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Memphis at Oklahoma City (-8) 100-86 Favorite Under (190.5)
2 Memphis (+7, +290) at Oklahoma City 111-105 (OT) Underdog Over (190.5)
3 Oklahoma City at Memphis (+2.5, +125) 98-95 (OT) Underdog Over (190)
4 Oklahoma City (-3.5) at Memphis 92-89 (OT) Underdog Under (188)
5 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -
6 Oklahoma City at Memphis - - -
7 Memphis at Oklahoma City - - -


(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Golden State
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Golden State (+7.5, +310) at Los Angeles 109-105 Underdog Over (211)
2 Golden State at Los Angeles (-8) 138-98 Favorite Over (212.5)
3 Los Angeles (-3) at Golden State 98-96 Underdog Under (212)
4 Los Angeles at Golden State (+1.5, +105) 118-97 Underdog Over (209.5)
5 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -
6 Los Angeles at Golden State - - -
7 Golden State at Los Angeles - - -


(4) Houston vs. (5) Portland
Game Matchup Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Portland (+5.5, +190) at Houston 122-120 (OT) Underdog Over (215.5)
2 Portland (+6.5, +270) at Houston 112-105 Underdog Over (215)
3 Houston (+2.5, +110) at Portland 121-116 (OT) Underdog Over (214.5)
4 Houston at Portland (-3.5) 123-120 (OT) Underdog Over (215)
5 Portland at Houston - - -
6 Houston at Portland - - -
7 Portland at Houston -