Da Bum's 2014 NBA Playoff Best Bets- News,Stats-Trends !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Sunday, May 4

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Nets at Raptors: What bettors need to know
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Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-3, 188.5)

The Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors meet Sunday in Toronto in Game 7 of their first-round series, with the winner advancing to face defending NBA champion Miami. The Nets stayed alive with a 97-83 win at home on Friday, building a 26-point lead and hanging on in their most complete effort of the series. Brooklyn did it with the players on whom the franchise is leaning, as Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett combined for 65 points on 50 percent shooting.

The Raptors earned the right to decide this on their home floor but will have some pressure to make it hold up and bring the franchise its first playoff series win in 13 years, especially with the experienced Nets now oozing with confidence. Pierce said he loved his team's chances and reserve center Andray Blatche already guaranteed that Brooklyn will be moving on to face Miami, but Toronto's players were not backing down. "For us to have any doubt in our minds right now is not acceptable," Raptors forward Patrick Patterson told reporters following Game 6.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE NETS: Some of the Game 6 performance can be credited to coach Jason Kidd's personnel shifts, which saw him replace Shaun Livingston with Alan Anderson - who had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds - in the starting lineup and stick with more experience off the bench. Kidd also relied on Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the fourth quarter after sitting them in the final period in Game 5, and Garnett had a pair of big hoops to help fight off another fourth-quarter rally for Toronto. "(Kidd) wanted to mix it up a little bit, and it was a good call," said Garnett, who tied a series high with 13 points while playing 27 minutes, his highest total since Jan. 10.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS: DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have carried Toronto much of the season and are averaging a combined 44.8 points in the series, but they could use a little help in Game 7. No other Raptor scored in double figures and the team as a whole shot 38.5 percent in the 83-point showing Friday night. Forward Amir Johnson has proven to be the most important complementary piece, averaging 14.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in Toronto's three wins, compared to 4.3 points and four boards in its losses.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto.
* Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.
* Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Anderson is averaging 11 points in the last two games after totaling 13 on 5-of-15 shooting in the first four.

2. DeRozan and Lowry have combined to shoot 39.5 percent from the floor.

3. Raptors C Jonas Valanciunas is shooting 68.2 percent from the field and 61.2 percent from the line in the series.

[StarDust Bum]

Record in the playoffs as of SATURDAY Night :

21 - 12 ..............................*****

16 - 13 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

14 - 16 - 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY


Sunday, May 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brooklyn - 1:00 PM ET Toronto -3 500 *****

Toronto - Over 188.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Dallas - 3:30 PM ET Dallas +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

San Antonio - Over 197.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Record in the playoffs as of Sunday Night :

21 - 12 ..............................*****

17 - 14 ..............................DOUBLE PLAY

15 - 17 - 1...............................TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 - Wizards at Pacers

May 5, 2014


Washington (48-39) at Indiana (60-29)

Eastern Conference Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Indiana -4 & 184

After escaping past eighth-seeded Atlanta in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the top-seeded Pacers will try to win their third straight game when they host the well-rested Wizards in their series opener on Monday.

Washington won a playoff series for the first time since 2005 when it disposed of Chicago in Game 5 on April 29. The Wizards are now 8-1 (SU and ATS) in their past nine games, but they have not been very successful at Indiana in recent history, losing 12 straight trips (3-7-2 ATS) to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The two visits this season were both blowouts, with the Pacers prevailing 93-73 on Nov. 29 and 93-66 on Jan. 10. But Indiana did lose its most recent meeting in this series on March 28 in the nation's capital, which sent the club on an 8-9 SU (7-10 ATS) spiral in its past 17 games, which is unusual for a top seed in a conference.
Despite the two lopsided losses in this series, Washington has been an excellent road team this season at 25-19 SU (29-15 ATS), including 21-11 ATS (66%) as a road underdog. But this club could be a little rusty, and it has not played well with tons of rest this season, going 9-11 SU (7-12-1 ATS) in 20 games preceded by at least two off-days. While the Pacers are a stellar 37-8 SU at home this season, they are just 23-21-1 ATS in these games, and they have also been subpar with little rest, going 27-39 ATS (41%) with less than two off-days before a game.

Two other betting trends to consider are that the Wizards are a phenomenal 18-2 ATS on the road when playing six or less games in a 14-day span under Randy Wittman, and Indiana is 0-11 ATS versus good ball-handling teams (14 or less TOPG) in the second half of this season. But not all is hopeless for the Pacers, who are 45-30 ATS (60%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons, and 31-16 ATS (66%) at home versus good three-point shooting teams (36%+ threes) in this same timeframe. There are no significant injuries for Washington, while Indiana remains without backup C Andrew Bynum (knee).

Despite a first-round series versus the Bulls, one of the stingiest defenses in the NBA, Washington averaged 94.6 PPG on 44.0% FG and 38.3% threes. The club was also very efficient with its ball-handling, as it tallied 20.4 APG and only 10.4 TOPG. On defense it held Chicago to just 90.0 PPG on 42.2% FG and 33.3% threes, thanks in part to active hands that produced 8.2 SPG and 6.6 BPG. Five Washington players averaged double-figure scoring in the first round, led by SG Bradley Beal (19.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.2 APG in playoffs) who shot better from three-point range (46%) than from inside the arc (43%). Beal shot horribly versus the Pacers during the regular season at 8-of-31 FG (26%), but he did make 4-of-7 three-pointers. PG John Wall (18.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) has been the key to this team's success all season, and his poor shooting at Indiana (8-for-29 FG, 28%) was a big reason his team got blown out twice. But he was much better in the March 28 win versus the Pacers, scoring 20 points (9-of-21 FG) with eight assists. SF Trevor Ariza (15.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs) shot 49% FG and 46% threes in the postseason series with the Bulls, but the Pacers held him to a horrible 31% FG in the regular season series. Ariza did chip in 5.0 RPG and 3.0 APG in those three meetings though. With these three shooters unable to get many open looks in the season series, a bigger scoring onus may be placed on the Washington frontcourt. PF Nene Hilario (17.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) faced the Pacers only once this season, scoring 12 points with five boards and four assists in 29 minutes.

As the team's main low-post scorer, Nene will need to continue his playoff production against Indiana's massive frontcourt. C Marcin Gortat (10.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG in playoffs) will also be a key in this series as he looks to take advantage of a slumping Roy Hibbert on the offensive end of the court. The 6-foot-11 Gortat cedes three inches to Hibbert, but still managed a double-double in the season series with 12.7 PPG and 10.3 RPG. PF Trevor Booker (5.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) has been the most productive bench player for Washington this postseason, and he also played well versus the Pacers this season with 4.3 PPG on 50% FG and 5.7 RPG in his 20.7 MPG.

Indiana had an up-and-down series to outlast Atlanta in seven games, averaging 93.4 PPG on 45.0% FG and 36.2% threes. Turnovers (14.9 per game) were a bit problematic, but the defense remained tough by limiting the Hawks to 92.4 PPG on 38.5% FG (34.3% threes), while compiling 8.0 SPG and 6.3 BPG. SF Paul George (23.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.4 SPG in playoffs) was unstoppable versus Atlanta, as he averaged 26.0 PPG and 10.3 RPG during the final four games of the series, leading his team to three wins in that timeframe. Although he averaged 16.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.3 APG and 3.0 SPG versus the Wizards this season, George had trouble getting off his shot, making only 33% FG in the three games. PF David West (13.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.6 BPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) scored only four points (1-of-7 FG) with six turnovers in Saturday's Game 7 win, but he helped out in other areas by grabbing 13 rebounds with six blocks, four assists and two steals. West played well versus Washington this season too with 12.7 PPG (53% FG) and 6.7 RPG in 29.0 MPG.

SG Lance Stephenson (15.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 APG in playoffs) was a bit inconsistent in the first round of the playoffs, but was a huge part of his team's final two victories with 20.0 PPG on 60% FG with 11.5 PPG. He shot just 38% FG versus the Wizards this season, but really filled up the stat sheet with 10.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG and 6.3 APG in the three meetings. PG George Hill (13.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 RPG in playoffs) has contributed at least 14 points and four assists in each of his past four games, and he was able to contain John Wall for the most part during the regular-season series. Hill also contributed 8.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.3 SPG in those three meetings. All-Star C Roy Hibbert (5.3 PPG on 37% FG, 3.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) finally awoke from his month-long slumber in Saturday's Game 7, scoring 13 points (6-of-10 FG) with seven boards and five blocks in 31 productive minutes. He didn't play particularly well versus Washington's quicker frontcourt though, averaging 11.0 PPG on 39% FG with only 5.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG in 30.3 MPG. PG C.J. Watson (8.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) shot only 43% from two-point range versus the Hawks, but made 45% of his threes. Watson was on fire from all areas of the court in his two meetings versus the Wizards this season, tallying 23 points on 9-of-11 FG and 4-of-6 threes.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 - Clippers at Thunder

May 5, 2014


L.A. Clipper (61-28) at Oklahoma City (63-26)

Western Conference Second Round
Game 1
Tip-off: Monday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Oklahoma City -5 & 213

After both the Clippers and Thunder were taken to seven games in the first round of the postseason, they continue their quest to the NBA Finals when they open their series on Monday night at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

Los Angeles barely got by Golden State in the opening round of the playoffs, prevailing 126-121 as a seven-point favorite in Saturday's Game 7. In the series, the Clippers averaged 110.9 PPG (47% FG) after putting together a regular season where they led the league in the category with 107.9 PPG. While they were able to win the series and advance, they were just 2-5 ATS against the Warriors and shot below 43% from the field three different times, all of which were games they lost. Oklahoma City was nearly knocked out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season by Memphis, but overcame a 3-2 series deficit by dominating the final two games. The Thunder won those final two contests by an average of 15.5 PPG while easily covering the spread in each as well. Overall in the first round, they were 3-3-1 ATS and scored a very impressive 102.1 PPG (44% FG) against a stingy Grizzlies defense.

Home-court advantage could be huge in the second round as Oklahoma City is an impressive 36-9 SU (25-19-1 ATS) when playing in front of their fans compared to Los Angeles going 24-20 SU with a 25-18-1 ATS record on the road. These two teams squared off four times during the regular season with each team winning two games SU and ATS. Their most recent meeting came late in the season as the Thunder defeated the Clippers on the road by a score of 107-101 as 3.5-point underdogs with each team shooting worse than 43% from the field.

Going back three seasons, this series has been nearly a split with Oklahoma City holding a slight 6-5 edge (both SU and ATS) with the Over going 8-3. Los Angeles has been amazing at revenging a SU loss as a favorite this season, going 15-3 ATS (83%) in those situations. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 31-16 ATS (66%) over the past two seasons after allowing 105+ points in a game. The only injury for either team that could have an effect on this game is that of SF Hedo Turkoglu (back), who is doubtful for Monday’s contest.

Although Los Angeles allowed 106.4 PPG on 46.0% FG (36.4% threes) versus the Warriors, the club also forced 17.3 TOPG in the series with 10.1 SPG and 5.1 BPG. As mentioned previously, the Clippers have continued their extraordinary offensive prowess in the postseason (110.9 PPG on 47.0% FG and 36.2% threes) and have used unselfish passing (23.7 APG, 14.3 TOPG) and a balanced attack to achieve this. PG Chris Paul (17.4 PPG, 9.0 APG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 SPG in playoffs) stepped it up in Game 7 against the Warriors, scoring 22 points to go along with 14 assists and four steals. He had at least one steal in each game of the first round, including 4+ takeaways in four of the seven games.

Paul also had a tremendous regular-season series with Oklahoma City, scoring 18.5 PPG with 12.0 APG, 6.3 RPG and 1.3 SPG. PF Blake Griffin (23.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) also flourished in all facets versus the Thunder this season with 24.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 4.8 APG and 1.3 SPG. He had a great all-around game Saturday to finish off Golden State with 24 points, six assists, five rebounds, three steals and three blocks. Griffin did have issues with fouls in the final three contests though, averaging 5.3 fouls in those games, and he cannot afford to be in foul trouble versus a skilled Thunder frontcourt.

C DeAndre Jordan (12.1 PPG, 15.1 RPG, 4.0 BPG in playoffs) had his way on the boards in the first round, grabbing 18+ rebounds in four of the final five games of the series. He also had at least two rejections in each game with 5+ blocks in Games 5, 6 and 7. Jordan chipped in a double-double (11.8 PPG, 11.3 RPG) with 1.8 BPG versus Oklahoma City this season. SG Jamal Crawford (16.7 PPG, 38% threes in playoffs) destroyed the Thunder this season with 24.7 PPG on 55% FG and 46% threes over three meetings. He also made some huge shots against the Warriors and ended the series with a bang, netting 21.5 PPG over the final four contests; including 22 in Saturday's clincher. SG J.J. Redick (14.3 PPG, 39% threes in playoffs) scored 20 points in Game 7, marking his second 20-point performance of the playoffs, but he shot horribly versus Oklahoma City this season at 29% FG and 22% threes leading to a pedestrian 9.0 PPG average in his three meetings.

The Thunder narrowly avoided a big upset for the second straight season to the Grizzlies after shooting 60.9% FG (57.9% threes) in Game 7, which was quite a jump from their 41.1% FG clip (29.2% threes) in the first six games. Oklahoma City did not pass the ball enough during the series (18.6 APG) and also committed 15.6 TOPG, including 17.8 TOPG in the final four contests. The club defended well for the majority of the seven games though, limiting Memphis to 96.7 PPG on 41.7% FG and 29.0% threes. SF Kevin Durant (29.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) was the top scorer in the league during the regular season and had five 30-point performances in the first round. He was extremely efficient over the final two games, going 23-for-41 from the floor (56%) while hitting all five of his threes in Game 7. He lit up L.A. for 32.5 PPG with 8.0 APG, 4.5 RPG and 1.8 SPG in four meetings this season. PG Russell Westbrook (25.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 8.0 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) had two triple-doubles in the first round including 27 points, 16 assists, 10 rebounds and two steals in Saturday’s big victory. While his numbers were great for the series, he shot just 38% from the field and 24% from behind the arc. He also shot poorly versus the Clippers this season at 40% FG and 24% threes, but still averaged a well-rounded 18.5 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.5 RPG and 1.5 SPG.

PF Serge Ibaka (13.0 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG in playoffs) went without a block in three of the seven games in the first round, but averaged 4.5 BPG in the other four. He did not shoot worse than 50% in any of the seven first-round games and shot 60% from the field over the entire series. He was even more accurate versus L.A. this season at 66% FG leading to 16.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG. PG Reggie Jackson (12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG in playoffs) averaged 17.5 PPG over his past four games, which included him going for 32 points on 11-for-16 shooting in their Game 4 victory. Against the Clippers this season, Jackson shot better from three-point range (36%) than inside the arc (35%), averaging a modest 8.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 3.3 APG for the season series.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Monday

May 5, 2014


The first round of the NBA Playoffs is in the books and while the first eight series offered up plenty of drama-filled action, it’s great to see the best teams advance and that’s usually what happens in a best-of-seven battle.

Personally, it’s one of the main reasons why I enjoy the Association so much because talent trumps everything in the long run.

With that being said, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag believe the Heat are the most talented club left in the playoffs, making them a heavy 1/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $25) to win the Eastern Conference and an 8/5 choice (Bet $100 to win $140) to three-peat and capture this year’s NBA Finals.

The other seven clubs chasing Miami are:

San Antonio 14/5
Oklahoma City 4/1
L.A. Clippers 7/1
Indiana 10/1
Portland 18/1
Brooklyn 20/1
Washington 30/1

Some pundits believe the Heat aren’t as good as last year’s championship squad or the group that captured the title in 2012 either. We’ll find that out soon enough but you can’t ignore the fact that the Heat were the only team to pull off a first round sweep. Perhaps it’s fair to say that everybody else is down too.

As the second round starts Monday, bookmakers and bettors have to be wondering if we’ll see the favorites bounce back. In the first round, underdogs went 34-15-1 against the spread and they won 22 of those 50 games straight up.

I believe things will balance out as the postseason continues since the point-spreads will be shorter and much easier to cover.

Let’s take a closer look at Monday’s battles.

Washington at Indiana (TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET)

The pair only met three times during the regular season and we’re probably being nice to label all three outcomes as ugly. Indiana captured 93-73 and 93-66 wins at home in late November and early January while Washington held serve in D.C. with a 91-78 victory at the end of March. All three games easily went ‘under’ the total, and coincidentally the number closed at 186 ½-points in each contest.

The Pacers were favored by 9 ½ and 10 points in their two home games and 1 ½-points in the road matchup. For Game 1, Indiana has been installed as a four-point home favorite, which shows you the perception on both clubs heading into this round. The total is hovering around 184 points.

When you handicap this matchup, it’s hard to ignore how bad the Pacers looked at times versus the Hawks and how good the Wizards played versus the Bulls.

Despite those facts, the playoffs are about matchups and Indiana’s Roy Hibbert should be more comfortable guarding the Wizards’ Nene and Marcin Gortat. And as athletic as John Wall and Bradley Beal are for Washington, the talented pair is still erratic and lacking big-game experience.

Washington hasn’t played since Tuesday and you could argue that the rust and not the rest will hurt the club just based on their tendencies. This season, the Wizards went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on three days of rest or more.

Indiana went 35-6 SU and 21-19-1 ATS during the regular season at home. In the first round, the club went 2-2 both SU and ATS versus Atlanta.

What’s impressive about Washington is its play on the road, which led to a 22-19 SU and 26-15 ATS mark this season. Even more impressive, the Wizards winning and covering all three road games against the Bulls in the first round.

The Pacers have been installed as minus-175 favorites (Bet $100 to win $57) to win the series while the Wizards can be taken at plus-155 (Bet $100 to win $155) odds.


Game 2 will be played Wednesday from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

L.A. Clippers at Oklahoma City (TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET)

The Clippers and Thunder both advanced to the second round on Saturday as they captured Game 7 victories on Saturday at home.

After dealing with last week’s Donald Sterling fallout and eventually getting past it, VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero believes those off the court issues will catch up to L.A. sooner or later.

He said, “The Clippers have to move quickly to put last week's mentally taxing events behind them in order to concentrate on the task at hand. The challenge of competing at OKC is made all the more difficult by injuries L.A. carries into the series, making it extremely difficult to survive this short turnaround. The Thunder played Saturday night, too, but didn't have to travel and have a much healthier team entering Game 1 of these Western Conference semifinals.”

Clippers point guard Chris Paul is still dealing with a hamstring and thumb injuries and Memphis saw what happened when it didn’t have a healthy Mike Conley against Memphis in Game 7. The Thunder’s Russell Westbrook had a triple-double in less than 40 minutes.

In the four regular season battles, Oklahoma City and Los Angeles each won two games, including one a piece on the road. The Thunder gave 5 ½-points in both home affairs while the Clippers were listed as 3 ½ and 4 ½-point favorites in the two meetings from the Staples Center.

The oddsmakers have stayed consistent with their ratings on this pair, listing Oklahoma City as a 5 ½-point favorite for Game 1.

The total went 2-2 during the regular season and the numbers ranged from 209 ½ up to 212. For Game 1, an opener of 209 was sent out which quickly bounced up to 212.

The Clippers went 23-18 SU and 25-15-1 ATS on the road during the regular season but was just 1-2 in the three games played against the Warriors from the Bay Area.

Oklahoma City was 34-7 SU and 20-21 ATS at home during the season. The Thunder were 2-2 both SU and ATS at home versus the Grizzlies in the first round.

OKC has been listed as a minus-185 series favorite while Los Angeles is a plus-160 underdog.

The pair will meet against on Wednesday from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Game 2.

[StarDust Bum]

Fact or Fiction

May 5, 2014


We're now into the second round of the playoffs, and that means we're down to just eight teams, five of which had to fight through seven-game series to get into this stage. Join us as we break down which teams are fact and which teams are fiction from an NBA betting standpoint.

FACT

The Wizards are going to the Eastern Conference Finals: And believe it or not, they might have a chance to get to the NBA Finals as well. Washington watched that Atlanta series for the Pacers and had to be smiling. The offenses which the two teams run are virtually the same, and that is going to create huge mismatches for Indiana. Unless the Pacers really get their minds right, they aren't going to have the answers here to take care of the Wizards.

Indiana has no choice now but to stick with Roy Hibbert: Head Coach Frank Vogel really screwed this one up. He had the chance to take Hibbert essentially off of his playoff roster against Atlanta, and he didn't do it. Instead, Hibbert continued to start, albeit playing limited minutes, and now, he has no choice but to leave the big man from Georgetown in there. The Pacers can't go small against a Washington team which will deploy both Nene and Marcin Gortat on a regular basis, and if that's the case, Luis Scola and David West can't be playing the center and power forward positions.

The West is clearly the best, but the Heat are the beasts: We would venture to say that the best four teams left standing in the playoffs are all in the West. It's going to make the Western Conference playoffs a heck of a lot of fun, but it's also going to leave the Miami Heat laughing their butts off. Miami is going to have to put forth very little effort to win the East this year, but out West, we wouldn't be surprised if the winning team will have had to play through 21 grueling games just to reach that point.

FICTION

The Spurs are in trouble in the West: Did Dallas expose some of what the Spurs have to bring to the table? We suppose the answer to that is yes. However, we don't think the vets clad in black and silver have anything to worry about. Head Coach Gregg Popovich knows what he is doing. The Western Conference is just that good that all eight teams really had a shot to create a lot of noise. San Antonio might struggle a bit, but we think the inexperience (Portland), the sideshow (LA), and the underachievers (Oklahoma City) in the Western Conference just aren't going to be able to ultimately keep up with the Spurs.

Kevin Durant is Mr. Unreliable: How stupid does your hometown newspaper have to be to mock the man that has brought you to relevance? Alas, that's what happened in Oklahoma City when the hometown paper called Durant "Mr. Unreliable" after he missed the foul shot that cost the Thunder Game 5 against the Grizzlies. All he did in Games 6 and 7 was dominate every aspect of the game in true "KD" fashion. It's not fair to say that Durant is going to be judged on his lack of an NBA championship, because he has carried this team that far. That said, if he falls short against the Clippers, he'll be criticized for letting yet another year pass without claiming the title.

The Nets have Miami's number: Forget about all of that "season sweep" talk. The Nets aren't going to beat the Heat when it really counts in the second season. So many of those Miami losses came by a bucket, and the Heat know that they have no reason not to take down an aging team which had to play seven grueling games against Toronto ending on Sunday. Don't be shocked if this series ends in just four games once again, as the Heat might end up playing the minimum 12 games to reach the NBA Finals.

[StarDust Bum]

2nd Round Betting Angles

May 4, 2014


With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends.

All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 18-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.

Worse, if the inferior teams are laying 4.5 or fewer points they are just 9-21 ATS, including 3-19 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.

Portland – you’ve been warned.

Tripped Out Favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games. Last year saw Oklahoma City laying 4.5 points to Memphis in this non-desirous role. The Grizzlies won the game, 88-84.

Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map - and out of the playoffs - going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Role Reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58.6% ATS proposition, going 34-24 ATS.

Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 5-1 SU and ATS.

Running On Empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

The Pacers were put to the test last season and they ignited as 5.5-point favorites in a 98-79 annihilation of Atlanta.

FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

Perfect 2nd Round Playoff Teams Trends

Brooklyn: Nets 5-0 ATS away vs. opponent off win of 7 or more points

Indiana: Pacers 0-4 ATS vs. opponent off SS SU underdog wins

Los Angeles: Clippers 0-5 SUATS off a win

Miami: Heat 7-0 ATS off a DD loss

Oklahoma City: Thunder 0-6 SUATS away off win of 9 more points

Portland: Trail Blazers 4-0 SUATS off a loss of 6 or more points

San Antonio: Spurs 0-4 SUATS as a favorite off a SU underdog win

Washington: Wizards 0-4 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points

There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

[StarDust Bum]

2nd Round Series Prices

May 4, 2014


Below are the series prices from Sportsbook.ag

(Opening Series Price)

Eastern Conference - Conference Semifinals

Miami vs. Brooklyn
Heat (-550)
Nets (+420)

Indiana vs. Washington
Pacers (-180)
Wizards (+160)

Western Conference - Conference Semifinals

San Antonio vs. Portland
Spurs (-400)
Trail Blazers (+300)

Oklahoma City vs. L.A. Clippers
Thunder (-180)
Clippers(+160)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Miami vs. Charlotte (Heat won series 4-0)
Heat (-2000)
Bobcats (+1100)

Indiana vs. Atlanta (Pacers won series 4-3)
Pacers (-500)
Hawks (+390)

Chicago vs. Washington (Wizards won series 4-1)
Bulls (-180)
Wizards (+155)

Brooklyn vs. Toronto (Nets won series 4-3)
Nets (+125)
Raptors (-145)

Western Conference - First Round

San Antonio vs. Dallas (Spurs won series 4-3)
Spurs (-600)
Mavericks (+450)

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis (Thunder won series 4-3)
Thunder (-310)
Grizzlies (+255)

Los Angeles vs. Golden State (Clippers won series 4-3)
Clippers (-350)
Warriors (+290)

Houston vs. Portland (Trail Blazers won series 4-2)
Rockets (-195)
Trail Blazers (+165)

How to read the Odds:
Ex. Bet $100 on the Heat (-550) to win $18.88
Ex. Bet $100 on the Nets (+420) to win $420

[StarDust Bum]

Fearless Predictions

May 5, 2014

For the playoffs, he's providing his fearless predictions with analysis for each matchup.



Eastern Conference - Second Round

Matchup Betting Notes

Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards Analysis: After losing the first two regular-season meetings in Indianapolis by a combined 47 points, the Wizards most recently won in D.C. 91-78 on March 28 despite Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza combining to shoot 4-for-25. If those two stay hot like they were against the Bulls, this series will go the distance before the Pacers again save their best for a Game 7 to turn Washington away.

Prediction: Pacers win 4-3

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Analysis: The Heat couldn't care less that they lost all four regular-season meetings, and deep down, the Nets know it doesn't matter either. What will make a difference is how well Kevin Garnett, Andray Blatche and Mason Plumlee impose their will inside, since controlling the paint will be the only way Brooklyn continues its dominance of Miami. Rested following the first round's only sweep, it's imperative that the Heat take the first two games at home to take advantage of fresher legs and end the narrative that the Nets have their number.

Prediction: Heat win 4-2



Western Conference - Second Round


Matchup Betting Notes
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers Analysis: This has the feel of a Trail Blazers team clearly on the rise trying to scale a colossal mountain in the established Spurs to truly signal their arrival. LaMarcus Aldridge has been getting the better of idol Tim Duncan for years, while Damian Lillard is going to test Tony Parker's suspect defense. Still, unless they can surprise early and land a series clincher at home in Game 6, Portland is set to find out that it's virtually impossible to win a deciding game in San Antonio.

Prediction: Spurs win 4-3


Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers Analysis: These teams split twice in November and twice post-All-Star break, but it's worth noting that Kevin Durant racked up 130 points over the four games, so slowing him down will be Doc Rivers' top priority. Roughing him up with Matt Barnes and Jared Dudley will likely be most effective, but there has to be a Plan B for when they get into foul trouble. Unlike last series against Golden State, the Thunder do have multiple options to keep Blake Griffin from imposing his will. Expect that to be the difference, in addition to Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson showing no mercy against an ailing Chris Paul.

Prediction: Thunder win 4-1

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 5

Washington hasn't played since dispatching Bulls in five games Tuesday; Pacers won Game 7 at home Saturday. Home team won last five Wizard-Pacer games; Wiz lost its last ten visits to Indy (3-6 vs spread in the last nine). Indiana won six of last nine games overall; under is 27-18 in their home games this season. Six of last seven Wizard games went over total- all three series games this season stayed under.

Clippers/Thunder both won Game 7's Saturday; LA has to travel east to Oklahoma, while OC stays home. Teams split four meetings this season, going 1-1 in each building. Over is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Clippers are 25-18 vs spread on road, failing to cover last four, but they covered four of last five games as a dog, Thunder survived Memphis series that had four straight OT games; five of their last six games went over- they got huge break when Zach Randolph was suspended for Game 7.




NBA

Monday, May 5

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. INDIANA
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Washington is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games

9:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
LA Clippers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers


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NBA

Monday, May 5

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Game of the Day: Clippers at Thunder
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Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 211.5)

The Los Angeles Clippers prevailed through an emotional series and don’t get any time to recuperate as they open the Western Conference semifinals against the host Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Los Angeles dealt with anger over racist comments spewed by now-banished owner Donald Sterling while fighting off the Golden State Warriors in a hard-fought series that ended Saturday. The Thunder also went seven games in the opening round, claiming the final two to oust the Memphis Grizzlies.

Second-seeded Oklahoma City was tested mightily by Memphis through five games before the Thunder easily won the final two contests as forward Kevin Durant rediscovered his shooting stroke and Russell Westbrook excelled as an all-around force. “We always try to figure out ways to get better,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks told reporters after Saturday’s clinching win. “We’re not mistake-free, but our effort is right on.” The Clippers were somehow able to keep much of their focus on basketball despite the chaos caused by the Sterling situation. “It’s been a crazy ride for us,” center DeAndre Jordan told reporters. “I commend our guys for sticking with it. It’s been a roller coaster, but we came out and had a job to do and we did it.”

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 4.5-point home faves, but have been bet to -5. The total opened 211 and has been bet up to 211.5.

INJURY REPORT: Clippers - Hedo Turkoglu (Day-to-day, back).

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Jordan was a difference-maker in the middle against Golden State by averaging 12.1 points, 15.1 rebounds and four blocks and his 106 rebounds surpassed Bob McAdoo’s franchise mark (94 for the Buffalo Braves in 1975) for a playoff series. Power forward Blake Griffin was strong on the scoring front (23.3) but grabbed just 6.3 boards and will be expected to increase that effort while being matched against Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka. Point guard Chris Paul (17.4 points, nine assists in the postseason) is bothered by a hamstring injury so it is likely that valuable reserve Darren Collison will find himself defending Westbrook at times to keep Paul from being taxed. Shooting guard Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick provide the outside artillery and small forward Matt Barnes has his moments.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Westbrook put together a contest for the ages with 27 points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds on Saturday to join Boston’s Rajon Rondo as the only players with a triple-double in two different Game 7s. He struggled with his shot for much of the series despite averaging 25.6 points while Durant also found himself under scrutiny while averaging 29.9 points with five 30-point outings. Durant is expected to be named MVP early this week but that didn’t stop the Oklahoma City newspaper from dubbing him “Mr. Unreliable” after a couple subpar shooting performances. Ibaka (13 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocked shots) is a consistent performer but Oklahoma City will need some better efforts from a supporting cast that includes guard Reggie Jackson and forward Caron Butler.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Clippers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 overall.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are coming in on the Thunder.


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NBA

Monday, May 5

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NBA Playoffs Round Two Betting Edges
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With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s on to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 18-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.

Worse, if the inferior teams are laying 4.5 or fewer points they are just 9-21 ATS, including 3-19 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.

Portland – you’ve been warned.


Tripped Out Favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games. Last year saw Oklahoma City laying 4.5 points to Memphis in this non-desirous role. The Grizzlies won the game, 88-84.

Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map - and out of the playoffs - going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.


Role Reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58.6% ATS proposition, going 34-24 ATS.

Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 5-1 SU and ATS.


Running On Empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

The Pacers were put to the test last season and they ignited as 5.5-point favorites in a 98-79 annihilation of Atlanta.

FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.


Perfect 2nd Round Playoff Teams Trends

Brooklyn: Nets 5-0 ATS away vs. opponent off win of 7 or more points

Indiana: Pacers 0-4 ATS vs. opponent off SS SU underdog wins

Los Angeles: Clippers 0-5 SUATS off a win

Miami: Heat 7-0 ATS off a DD loss

Oklahoma City: Thunder 0-6 SUATS away off win of 9 more points

Portland: Trailblazers 4-0 SUATS off a loss of 6 or more points

San Antonio: Spurs 0-4 SUATS as a favorite off a SU underdog win

Washington: Wizards 0-4 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points

There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Washington at Indiana
The Wizards open up their series in Indiana tonight and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Washington is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, MAY 5

Game 701-702: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.109; Indiana 121.206
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Under

Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.257; Oklahoma City 129.052
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, May 5

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WASHINGTON (48 - 39) at INDIANA (60 - 29) - 5/5/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 92-74 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 8-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (61 - 28) at OKLAHOMA CITY (63 - 26) - 5/5/2014, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 158-219 ATS (-82.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 113-152 ATS (-54.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 97-81 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 85-70 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 53-38 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, May 5

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, 7:05 ET
Washington: 21-12 ATS as a road underdog
Indiana: 15-7 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35 ET
LA Clippers: 20-37 ATS after allowing 120 points or more
Oklahoma City: 52-38 ATS as a home favorite

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, May 5


Heat enter Round 2 as 3-2 Championship faves

With the first round matchups behind us, odds on the NBA Championship and Conferences have adjusted accordingly.

The Miami Heat are 3-2 faves to win the Larry O'Brien trophy, with the Spurs right behind them at 5-2.


Miami Heat open as big faves in Game 1

The Miami Heat will open their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Brooklyn Nets as 7-point home faves in Game 1.

Books opened the Heat as faves late Sunday, with others getting the game on the board early Monday morning. Books have also posted an opening total of 191.5 for the matchup.

The Nets were 4-0 straight up and against the spread versus the Heat this year, covering the spread in Miami as 7 and 9-point dogs.

The teams combined to split the Over/Under count at 2-2 during the four games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, May 5

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Wizards at Pacers: What bettors need to know
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Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers (-4, 183.5)

The Indiana Pacers looked like something much less than the juggernaut that ripped through the first four months of the regular season in the first round of the playoffs, needing seven games to dispatch of eighth-seeded Atlanta. The fifth-seeded Washington Wizards, who visit the top-seeded Pacers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday, have been sitting home getting plenty of rest. The Wizards had little trouble scraping by the Chicago Bulls.

The series with Chicago fully prepared Washington to deal with a rugged defensive team, as the Bulls and Pacers were the top two clubs in most defensive categories during the regular season. The Wizards relied on different players each night and attacked Chicago from different sides to cruise to a five-game win in the first round. The Pacers trailed 3-2 in their first-round series and had a little trouble finding their identity along the way, switching the rotation in the last two games to provide more flexibility while trying to figure out what they would get from Roy Hibbert on a game-to-game basis.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE WIZARDS: Washington will have a full six days off between series after dispatching of Chicago on Tuesday with an ugly 75-69 win that proved the Wizards could play at that pace and still pull out the victory. “We just trust each other as a family,” point guard John Wall told reporters, “and that is why we’re playing so well right now.” Wall led the way with 24 points in the series-clinching win and averaged 18.8 points in the series despite shooting just 36.4 percent. Bradley Beal and Trevor Ariza took turns picking Wall up from the outside while Nene, who was eased into the rotation off the bench over the last few games of the regular season after missing six weeks with a sprained MCL, emerged as a force down low and will provide a tough match for Indiana forward David West.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana trailed by 30 points in Game 5 before finally inserting Chris Copeland into the rotation and adding some versatility to the offense. The Pacers ended up losing that game by 10 but took the next two, putting together a nice comeback at the end of Game 6 before controlling the pace in Game 7. Hibbert’s play was a big issue in the first six games, with the All-Star center carrying over his poor play from the regular season and logging 12 ineffective minutes in each Games 5 and 6. Hibbert finally found something in Game 7 and ended up with 13 points, seven rebounds and five blocks in the 92-80 win. “You always feel for guys on your team that are struggling,” coach Frank Vogel said of Hibbert. “…(It was) gratifying to stay with him and then see him step up the way he did (in Game 7).”

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Indiana.
* Wizards are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Indiana.
* Wizards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Pacers last six overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Pacers held the Wizards to an average of 69.5 points in winning the first two regular-season meetings but Washington earned a 91-78 home win on March 28.

2. Indiana F Paul George averaged 23.9 points and recorded six double-doubles in the first round.

3. Beal shot 45.5 percent from beyond the arc in the first round.