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NCAAB
Saturday, April 5
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Kentucky or Wisconsin? Who covers in Final Four
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
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NCAAB
Saturday, April 5
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Final Four betting preview: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
Kentucky was anointed the top team in the country prior to the season and suddenly has an opportunity to emerge as the best at the end of it after a bumpy ride. The eighth-seeded Wildcats face second-seeded Wisconsin in Saturday’s Final Four at Arlington, Texas, and are brimming with confidence due to an impressive tournament run through the Midwest regional. The Badgers qualified for the national semifinals with a solid win over Arizona in the West regional final.
Wisconsin can match the school record for victories by reaching the national title game but will be at an athletic disadvantage against the Wildcats and the players are weary of hearing about it. “You’re in the Final Four, you obviously did something right,” Badgers guard Josh Gasser said at a press conference. “Kentucky deserves credit for a being a good team and I think so do we. We’ve beaten a ton of good teams this year and I think that speaks for itself. We don’t really care what the outside perception is of us.” Wisconsin is in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 while Kentucky is back for the third time in five seasons during John Calipari’s coaching tenure.
TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened as 2-point dogs and have been bet to +1.5. The total opened 138.5 and is up to 139.
INJURY REPORT: Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable, ankle)
WHY BET KENTUCKY (28-10 SU, 19-15-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Double-double machine Julius Randle (15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the best NBA prospect of the starting freshmen but guard Aaron Harrison (14.1) was the hero in the Elite Eight victory over Michigan when he drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining. “I think we all just learned it’s all about winning,” Harrison told reporters at a midweek press conference when asked about Kentucky’s strong tournament showing. “It doesn’t matter individually what you’re doing. You just have to do whatever you can for the team to win.” Guards James Young (14.1) and Andrew Harrison (11 per game) also average in double digits.
WHY BET WISCONSIN (30-7 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Center Frank Kaminsky (14.1 points) had 28 points and 11 rebounds against Arizona as he continues his transformation from role player last season to go-to scorer. “I really can’t explain it,” Kaminsky told reporters. “It’s just something more of an opportunity this year than in the past. But I can’t thank my teammates enough for helping me get through this.” Guard Ben Brust averages 12.8 points and is 12-of-23 from 3-point range in the NCAA tournament, while forward Sam Dekker (12.4) and point guard Traevon Jackson (10.7) also average in double digits.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 neutral site games.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.
Saturday, April 5
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Kentucky or Wisconsin? Who covers in Final Four
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
THREE REASONS KENTUCKY COVERS
Familiarity with Big Ten
Kentucky will already be prepared for the Big Ten style of basketball when it takes on Wisconsin Saturday. The Wildcats beat Big Ten regular season champions Michigan with a last second three pointer in the Elite Eight and showed that their athleticism is a distinct advantage. Wisconsin may have split the season series with Michigan, but after besting a Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten quite easily this year Kentucky deserves to be the favorite for the second-straight game against Big Ten opposition.
Improved shooting
In their three tournament wins over higher-seeded opponents in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan, the Wildcats shot over their season average from the field. In two of those games (Wichita State, Michigan) Kentucky shot well over 50 percent, which allowed it to outscore two of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country to get to the Final Four. With their rebounding advantage and interior presence in Julius Randle, when Kentucky is hitting its shots, the Wildcats become nearly impossible to put away, as the Wolverines found out when their double digit lead quickly evaporated Sunday.
Marcus Lee
The freshman who scored just eight points since January came up in a big way for the Wildcats against Michigan, scoring 10 points and putting up eight rebounds off the bench in the absence of Willie Cauley-Stein. Already holding a +6.8 rebounding margin advantage over the Badgers, having another big man like Lee who can jump out of the building and put back misses above the rim will help the Wildcats' chances - especially if the questionable Cauley-Stein can contribute minutes. Having four post players that can slow Wisconsin star-center Frank Kaminsky would give Kentucky head coach John Calipari a significant advantage on the inside.
THREE REASONS WISCONSIN COVERS
Frank Kaminsky
The gangly, 7-foot junior center can do it all, and the boxscores prove it, particularly in the last two games. In the West Regional semifinal against Baylor, Kaminsky scored 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the floor and a 3-for-4 effort at the free-throw line. But perhaps the larger contribution was his six blocked shots, and he also had four rebounds in a 69-52 blowout, with the Badgers a 4-point favorite.
In Saturday’s regional final against No. 1 seed Arizona, he scored 28 points in just about every way possible – 16 on 2-pointers, nine via a 3-for-5 effort from 3-point range, and another three from the free throw line. And he also had seven offensive boards among his 11 total rebounds as Wisconsin pulled out the 64-63 overtime win as a 3.5-point pup.
Points in the paint
Although the Badgers were outscored 30-26 in the lane against Arizona, in their four-game run to the Final Four, they have put up 118 points in the paint, while allowing 84. Wisconsin rarely settles for bad shots.
Stepping up versus big teams
This team has consistently risen to the challenge against major talent. As Michael Beller of SI.com pointed out, the Badgers are the only team in the country to beat the regular-season champions from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Pac 12. That includes SU and ATS victories over three of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds: a 59-53 win over Florida as a 5.5-point home chalk in the second game of the year; a 48-38 win at Virginia catching 4 points in December; and last weekend’s 64-63 OT win against Arizona as a 3.5-point ‘dog to reach the Final Four. The Badgers also posted a 75-62 February win as 4-point pups at Michigan – which reached the Elite Eight before losing to Kentucky last weekend.
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NCAAB
Saturday, April 5
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Final Four betting preview: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 139)
Kentucky was anointed the top team in the country prior to the season and suddenly has an opportunity to emerge as the best at the end of it after a bumpy ride. The eighth-seeded Wildcats face second-seeded Wisconsin in Saturday’s Final Four at Arlington, Texas, and are brimming with confidence due to an impressive tournament run through the Midwest regional. The Badgers qualified for the national semifinals with a solid win over Arizona in the West regional final.
Wisconsin can match the school record for victories by reaching the national title game but will be at an athletic disadvantage against the Wildcats and the players are weary of hearing about it. “You’re in the Final Four, you obviously did something right,” Badgers guard Josh Gasser said at a press conference. “Kentucky deserves credit for a being a good team and I think so do we. We’ve beaten a ton of good teams this year and I think that speaks for itself. We don’t really care what the outside perception is of us.” Wisconsin is in the Final Four for the first time since 2000 while Kentucky is back for the third time in five seasons during John Calipari’s coaching tenure.
TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened as 2-point dogs and have been bet to +1.5. The total opened 138.5 and is up to 139.
INJURY REPORT: Kentucky: F Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable, ankle)
WHY BET KENTUCKY (28-10 SU, 19-15-2 ATS, 15-19 O/U): Double-double machine Julius Randle (15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds) is the best NBA prospect of the starting freshmen but guard Aaron Harrison (14.1) was the hero in the Elite Eight victory over Michigan when he drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds remaining. “I think we all just learned it’s all about winning,” Harrison told reporters at a midweek press conference when asked about Kentucky’s strong tournament showing. “It doesn’t matter individually what you’re doing. You just have to do whatever you can for the team to win.” Guards James Young (14.1) and Andrew Harrison (11 per game) also average in double digits.
WHY BET WISCONSIN (30-7 SU, 21-16 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Center Frank Kaminsky (14.1 points) had 28 points and 11 rebounds against Arizona as he continues his transformation from role player last season to go-to scorer. “I really can’t explain it,” Kaminsky told reporters. “It’s just something more of an opportunity this year than in the past. But I can’t thank my teammates enough for helping me get through this.” Guard Ben Brust averages 12.8 points and is 12-of-23 from 3-point range in the NCAA tournament, while forward Sam Dekker (12.4) and point guard Traevon Jackson (10.7) also average in double digits.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Badgers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 neutral site games.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.
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