The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

March Madness Record:

20- 27.....................*****

18- 14.....................DOUBLE PLAY

11 - 12 - 1 ....................TRIPLE PLAY


Tuesday, March 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Belmont - 7:00 PM ET Clemson -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Clemson - Over 137.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY


Southern Miss - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota -5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Minnesota - Over 136.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Sleepers

March 25, 2014


We're down to just 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament, and there are a few out there that we think you should consider to pull off some upsets along the way. The four teams we highlighted last week combined to go 4-2 ATS in the first week of the tourney, including a near upset with New Mexico State.

Connecticut Huskies (28-8, 19-15 ATS) – We're talking about the Huskies once again this week, as we still think they can win the National Championship. Shabazz Napier's shin injury is a bit of a concern, but in the end, he still has proven time and time again that he is the best player on the court in virtually every situation he runs into. The Huskies are scoring the ball at will, and Napier has 49 points to show for his work through two games. Granted, this matchup on Friday against Iowa State isn't going to be an easy one (nor will a prospective Elite Eight matchup against either Michigan State or Virginia), but the Huskies have that ultimate X-Factor in Napier who can change games in a hurry.

Stanford Cardinal (23-12, 19-12-2 ATS) – You can't teach height, and you can't teach speed, and the Cardinal have a ton of both in each department. The "trees" for Stanford have really given teams problems here to start off the tourney, and the upsets of New Mexico and Kansas could both be attributed to the size of the team. We have yet to see Chasson Randle go off for a massive game yet, but that could be coming. The draw against Dayton couldn't possibly be any friendlier, and though in all likelihood, Stanford has little to no chance against Florida in the Elite Eight, it could still be a fantastic team in regards to covering.

Baylor Bears (26-11, 15-14-2 ATS) – Every year it feels like we watch as Baylor makes the Elite Eight, and we wonder every year how in the heck none of us saw this coming. Plain and simple though, this team can play, and it's built for the dance. The grind of the regular season is hard on this team, as it is really never all that deep of a club, and the Big XII season is as tough as any task in the country. However, between the size of Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin as well as the athleticism and shooting of Kenny Chery and Brady Heslip, the Bears are definitely a club to be reckoned with. Wisconsin had all sorts of problems with a very talented and athletic Oregon team, and for our money, Baylor is a more athletic, yet a slightly slower version of the same team. The Bears might be the shocking team in this bracket. Don't be surprised if they upset the Badgers and perhaps make a run at the Final Four, where they will be the de facto home team in Arlington.

Odds to Win 2014 NCAA Men's Tournament (4/7/14)

Florida 7/2
Louisville 7/2
Arizona 9/2
Michigan State 9/2
Virginia 10/1
Wisconsin 16/1
Michigan 16/1
Kentucky 20/1
Baylor 20/1
Iowa State 25/1
UCLA 25/1
UConn 28/1
Tennessee 30/1
San Diego State 38/1
Stanford 65/1
Dayton 85/1

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Primer

March 25, 2014


As of Monday morning, the LVH Superbook had Florida, Michigan State and Louisville as the +350 co-favorites to cut the nets down in Dallas (risk $100 to win $350). The next-shortest odds belonged to Arizona (4/1), Virginia (10/1), Wisconsin (18/1), Michigan (18/1), Kentucky (18/1), UCLA (25/1), Tennessee (25/1), Baylor (25/1), Iowa State (30/1), UConn (30/1), San Diego State (50/1), Stanford (50/1) and Dayton (75/1).

Billy Donovan's team will play Thursday's late game in Memphis against UCLA. Most books have the Gators installed as 4.5-point favorites. They have eliminated the Bruins, who are +170 on the money line, from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006.

UCLA has Steve Alford back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since he led Southwest Missouri State this far in the 1999 NCAA Tourney. The Bruins handed Stephen F. Austin its first loss since November 13 when they cruised to a 77-60 win Sunday in San Diego.

Jordan Adams led his team to the spread cover as 9.5-point favorites, scoring a team-high 19 points. Kyle Anderson produced 15 points, eight rebounds and five assists compared to only one turnover. UCLA also took the cash in Friday's win over Tulsa. In fact, Alford's bunch has covered the number in five consecutive games since losing its regular-season finale at Washington State

The other South Region matchup was expected to be a rematch of the 2003 finals with Syracuse and Kansas facing each other. Instead, we've got a showdown between a pair of double-digit seeds in No. 10 Stanford and No. 11 Dayton.

Stanford advanced in its first NCAA appearance during Johnny Dawkins's tenure by knocking off New Mexico, the winner of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, and Kansas, the Big 12's regular-season champion. The Cardinal took early leads over both the Lobos and the Jayhawks, and it secured both victories by making the most plays at crunch time.

Dayton is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1984 and the school rewarded head coach Archie Miller with an extension through 2018-2019 on Monday. Archie's brother Sean still has his team playing in the West Region, but we'll get to that momentarily.

Dayton's run to Memphis began with a win over in-state rival Ohio State by a 60-59 count as a 6.5-point underdog. Then on Saturday night, the Flyers sent Syracuse home by capturing a 50-49 victory as 8.5-point underdogs. They have won 12 of their last 14 games.

Most books have Stanford listed as a three-point favorite, while bettors can take Dayton to win outright for a +135 payout.

The West Region semifinals will go down in Anaheim. Arizona, the No. 1 seed, will take on San Diego State as a six-point 'chalk.' The Wildcats failed to cover in Friday's win over Weber State, but they blasted Gonzaga 84-61 on Sunday as 7.5-point favorites.

Aaron Gordon was the catalyst against the 'Zags, producing 18 points, six rebounds, six assists and four steals. Nick Johnson finished with 17 points, five board, five assists, four blocked shots and three steals.

San Diego State has won eight of its last nine games while compiling a 7-2 spread record. A quarter-century after leading Michigan to the national title by beating Seton Hall in overtime on the finals in Seattle, Steve Fisher is in contention again.

The Aztecs got a scare from 13th-seeded New Mexico State on Thursday night, but they escaped with a 73-69 non-covering triumph. On Saturday, things were much easier in a 63-44 win over North Dakota State Xavier Thames, who averages a team-high 17.3 points per game for SDS, scored 53 combined points in wins over the Aggies and Bison.

The early West Region game on Thursday will pit second-seeded Wisconsin against sixth-seeded Baylor. Most spots have the Badgers as three-point favorites against the red-hot Bears, who are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 ATS.

Scott Drew's squad cruised to a 74-60 win over Nebraska on Friday afternoon and then smashed Creighton 85-55 Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Baylor's zone defense held the nation's best 3-point shooting team to just five makes on 22 attempts from downtown.

Brady Heslip and Isaiah Austin shared top-scoring honors with 17 points apiece. Heslip drained 5-of-7 attempts from 3-point range. Cory Jefferson and Kenny Cherry added 14 points apiece. Baylor might not win it all or even get to Dallas, but there's no doubt that the Bears have as much size and talent as any team in the field.

Wisconsin had to play from behind for much of its third-round game against Oregon but in front of a partisan crowd in Milwaukee, Bo Ryan's team rallied to win and cover. The Badgers knocked down their free throws late to win an 85-77 decision as six-point favorites.

Frank Kaminsky scored a team-high 19 points, while senior point guard Traevon Jackson finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

The East Region semifinals will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The early game on Friday night features UConn, the No. 7 seed, against third-seeded Iowa State. The Cyclones are favored by one at most betting shops.

DeAndre Kane found his way through traffic and to the rim for a game-winning layup with 1.6 seconds left to life Fred Hoiberg's team to an 85-83 triumph over North Carolina as a one-point 'chalk.' Kane destroyed the Tar Heels with 24 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists to lead Iowa State to its first Sweet 16 appearance in 14 years.

Iowa State got the win over UNC despite the absence of forward Georges Niang, who had 24 points in Friday's 93-75 win over North Carolina Central but broke his foot late in the second half.

UConn survived a hotly-contested overtime affair against State Joseph's on Thursday night. Then on Saturday, the Huskies eliminated second-seeded Villanova by a 77-65 score as four-point underdogs. Shabazz Napier led the way with 25 points.

The late game in NYC will be between top-seeded Virginia and fourth-seeded Michigan State. The Spartans are favored by 1.5 points at most books.

In the Midwest Region, bitter rivals Louisville and Kentucky will collide in a rematch of a game won by UK at Rupp Arena in December. Most spots have the Cardinals listed as five-point favorites.

Kentucky edged Wichita State in what was probably the best game of Tournament thus far. The Wildcats, who have covered the number in five consecutive games, rallied in the final minutes to nip the previously-unbeaten Shockers, whose potential game-winning shot at the buzzer was off the mark.

Rick Pitino is unbeaten in 10 career Sweet 16 games with a 9-1 spread record.

The other game in Indianapolis is between second-seeded Michigan and 11th-seeded Tennessee. The Volunteers are on fire and got this far with wins and ATS covers over Iowa (at the First Four in Dayton), UMass and Mercer.

Jarnell Stokes has dominated the paint for UT. Stokes had 17 points and 18 boards against Iowa, 26 and 18 vs. UMass and 18 and 13 against Mercer. Josh Richardson has really picked up his play, dropping 26 points on the Bears in Sunday's blowout.

Some offshore shops have posted odds for whom will win Most Outstanding Player in the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Florida's Scottie Wilbekin is the 7/1 'chalk,' while U of L's Russ Smith has the second-shortest odds (9/1). The next-shortest odds belong to Michigan State's Adreian Payne (10/1), MSU's Gary Harris (10/1), Arizona's Nick Johnson (12/1), UF's Casey Prather (15/1), UF's Patric Young (15/1).

[StarDust Bum]

Power Ratings - Sweet 16

March 25, 2014


As we move into the Sweet 16 of this year’s NCAA Tournament here is an update showing each team that remains, along with their SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) rating:

Adjusted Ratings - Sweet 16
TEAM SEED REGION SBPI RANK
Florida 1 SOUTH 1
Arizona 1 WEST 2
Virginia 1 EAST 12
Wisconsin 2 WEST 6
Michigan 2 MIDWEST 15
Iowa State 3 EAST 23
Louisville 4 MIDWEST 4
San Diego State 4 WEST 13
Michigan State 4 EAST 17
UCLA 4 SOUTH 22
Baylor 6 WEST 11
Connecticut 7 EAST 32
Kentucky 8 MIDWEST 14
Stanford 10 SOUTH 34
Tennessee 11 MIDWEST 3
Dayton 11 SOUTH 35


As we can see from the above matrix of the 16 teams left in the field 11 were ranked inside the Top 17 of the current SBPI – who has lost from the SBPI Top 17 already?

• #5 Duke
• #7 Pitt (lost to #1 Florida)
• #8 Ohio State
• #9 Villanova
• #10 VCU
• #16 Syracuse

There are three Cinderella stories remaining according to the SBPI and they are #32 UConn, #34 Stanford & #35 Dayton – meaning all Sweet 16 teams are ranked in the Top 35 of the SBPI. Stanford will face Dayton with the winner advancing to face either Florida or UCLA – so of the two biggest longshots according to the SBPI still remaining in the field one of them will advance and play in the Elite 8.

Tennessee has been ranked inside our Top 10 all season long, and currently sit at #3 – so we are not surprised by their run thus far. Many other power ranking services have recently caught on to how well the Vols are playing, but we have had them ranked highly since first publishing our SBPI in early February. Baylor is another team that has ranked highly in our SBPI since initial publishing, and they have reached the Sweet 16 currently sitting at #11.

The West region appears to be the toughest right now as all 4 teams remaining are ranked inside the Top 13 of SBPI, while the South region has #1 Florida & three teams ranked #22 or worse.

The Midwest is just behind the West with all four teams inside the Top 15 of SBPI, while the East is on the weaker side similar to the South with the top ranked team #12 Virginia.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects of the Miami Marlins........

1) Andrew Heaney, P-- 4-1, 2.94 in six starts at AA last year.

2) Colin Moran 3B-- BJ Surhoff's nephew, so good bloodlines.

3) Jake Marisnick, OF-- Skipped AAA; hit .183 in 109 ABs with Miami

5) Anthony DeSclafani, P-- 20-9, 3.00 in 46 minor league starts.

20) Austin Barnes, C-- .295 hitter in 1,109 minor league ABs.

30) Michael Brady, P-- Once a SS, had 1.53 ERA as AA reliever LY.

*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud......

13) Probably the biggest change in baseball this season is the new instant replay system; teams will have an “eye in the sky”, a replay coach to advise managers whether to use their challenge on reviewable plays. Going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

12) A by-product of instant replay is that eight new umpires were hired; umpire crews will rotate in/out of the “war room” in New York City, where they will review replays and make decisions. That has to be pretty good duty for umps, who conceivable could go full games with no calls to make.

11) Steve Masiello's deal to be the new coach at South Florida is off, as some discrepancy came up in his background check done by a search agency that was paid $100K by the South Florida AD, who got his job when that same search agency recommended him (they got $60K for that). Oy.

10) Miami’s 21-year old Jose Fernandez will be NL’s youngest Opening Day starting pitcher since Dwight Gooden in 1986.

9) San Francisco 49ers have six draft picks in the top 100 selections, more than any other team, thanks to compensation picks they got from the league last week. Question is, will they sign their QB to a longterm contract?

8) Bovada posted .280 as the betting over/under on Derek Jeter’s batting average this season. So far this spring, Jeter is hitting .128 (6-47) as he gets ready for his last major league season.

7) Cal basketball radio announcer Roxy Bernstein (he works for ESPN, too) also went to college at Cal; he likes his alma mater so much he named his daughter Berkeley, despite his wife being a UCLA grad. Bernstein is very good at his job, enjoyable to listen to.

6) Barclays Center in Brooklyn will have ACC tournament in 2017/2018, then the A-13 (or whatever it’ll be known as by then) in 2019-2021, if you’re planning far into the future to go see some postseason basketball.

5) In his first 38 plate appearances this spring, David Ortiz was 2-35 with a homer and a double- no singles.

4) Someone named Irving Azoff, who apparently is a music mogul, brokered the deal between the Knicks and Phil Jackson; I apologize if Mr Azoff is really famous, but I’ve never heard of him. He’ll be a hero in NYC if the Zen Master turns the Knickerbockers’ fortunes around.

3) That'll take some doing though; Knicks gave up 51 points in the third quarter alone last night, getting crushed by the Lakers in Staples. Losing to the Lakers is one thing; losing by 30 showed a total lack of effort.

2) I’ll go to my grave swearing that the NBA playoffs would be so much better with shorter playoff series, as in best-of-5 the longest series. Little increased drama never hurt anyone; so what if the best team doesn’t always win? It works pretty well in college ball.

1) RIP Mr Ralph Wilson, last of the original AFL owners, who passed away Tuesday at age 95. Always seemed like a classy guy. Curious to see if the Bills stay in western New York once the franchise changes hands.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Louisiana Tech at Florida State
The Bulldogs (29-7) head to Florida State tonight to take on a Seminoles team that is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Louisiana Tech is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26

Game 771-772: Illinois State at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 55.967; Siena 61.101
Dunkel Line: Siena by 5; 136
Vegas Line: Siena by 2 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-2 1/2); Over

Game 773-774: Old Dominion at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 57.085; Fresno State 61.872
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 5; 137
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 7; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+7); Over

Game 775-776: Yale at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 49.094; Columbia 55.496
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 6 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Columbia by 4 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 777-778: VMI at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 55.229; Ohio 56.132
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1; 168
Vegas Line: Ohio by 8; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VMI (+8); Over

Game 779-780: San Diego at Pacific (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 54.677; Pacific 60.257
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 5 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Pacific by 3 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-3 1/2); Under

Game 783-784: Louisiana Tech at Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 66.146; Florida State 63.668
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 2 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3); Over

Game 785-786: California at SMU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 64.227; SMU 66.943
Dunkel Line: SMU by 2 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: SMU by 8 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+8 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 26

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ILLINOIS ST (18 - 15) at SIENA (17 - 17) - 3/26/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OLD DOMINION (18 - 17) at FRESNO ST (19 - 16) - 3/26/2014, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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YALE (17 - 13) at COLUMBIA (21 - 12) - 3/26/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
YALE is 4-2 against the spread versus COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 4-2 straight up against COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VMI (21 - 12) at OHIO U (25 - 11) - 3/26/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all home games since 1997.
OHIO U is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
OHIO U is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (18 - 16) at PACIFIC (17 - 15) - 3/26/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PACIFIC is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
PACIFIC is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PACIFIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PACIFIC is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
PACIFIC is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (29 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (21 - 13) - 3/26/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALIFORNIA (21 - 13) at SMU (25 - 9) - 3/26/2014, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 26

No easy way to get from Normal, IL to Albany; Illinois State used three starters 35:00+ Monday in home win- they lost last seven games away from home- their last road win was Jan 18 at Drake. Siena won six of its last seven games. ISU lost by 9 to Manhattan of MAAC in November. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight ISU games, 7-0 in Siena's last seven.

Long road trip for Old Dominion after its stress-free home win Monday; they've won four of last five games but lost four of last five road games. Monarchs are 0-12 against teams ranked #110 or better. Fresno is ranked #102; they've won 11 of last 14 games. Six of last eight ODU games went over total; four of last five Fresno games stayed under.

Home side won both Yale-Columbia games this year; Bulldogs won the first meeting 69-59, then lost 62-46 in rematch, game that KO'd Yale out of tie for Ivy lead, starting them on 1-4 skid. This game is bus ride for a Yale team that won five of last seven road games. Columbia won seven of last nine games; they're #44 in 3-point shooting, #4 on foul line.

VMI scored 111-106 points in winning last two games; they scored 82+ points in 16 of last 17 wins; they scored average of 66 ppg in last four losses. Keydets won five of last seven true road games. Ohio won 79-70 over NC-Asheville of Big South, team that finished game behind VMI in big south. Bobcats won six of last seven games, allowing 64 or less in five of the six wins.

Road team won both San Diego-Pacific games this year, their first season as WCC rivals; Pacific won first meeting 84-67, then Toreros won 70-55 in rematch. USD won five of last seven games, winning three of last four true road games. Tigers are 6-11 against teams ranked in top 150. Four of last five San Diego games went over the total.

Florida State made 11-16 from arc, 30-38 from line in 101-90 win over Georgetown Monday, scoring whopping 1.36 ppp; they beat Charlotte by 44 in only game vs C-USA opponent. Louisiana Tech won 12 of its last 14 games, winning last four true road games. Seminoles won six of last eight games. Four of last five Tech games went over the total.

SMU won first two NIT games by 14-13 points; they're drawing lot of fans in remodeled arena. Mustangs shot 56% inside arc in win over LSU Monday, game they trailed by 10 early on. Cal is erratic; they lost four of last six games; big guy Solomon didn't play vs Arkansas, and Kreklow may have broken nose late in game. Under is 5-1 in last six Cal contests, 7-2 in SMU's last nine games.

Thursday's NCAA games
Dayton-Stanford is just the second 10-11 seed game ever; VCU upset Florida State 72-71 in OT (+4.5) in the other one three years ago. Flyers won their two games last weekend by total of three points; they split a pair of tilts with Pac-12 teams this season, beating Cal by 18 on Maui (Solomon didn't play for Cal) then lost at home to Pac-12 doormat USC. Dayton won 12 of last 14 games overall. Stanford won five of its last six games, allowing 55 ppg in pair of upset wins last week.

Wisconsin is 15-0 out of conference this year; Badgers are 11-2 in last 13 games overall- they beat West Va by 7 in only game vs Big X opponent. Ryan is 1-4 in regional semifinal games, with only win in '05; underdogs covered all five of those games. Baylor won 12 of last 14 games, beating Nebraska of Big Dozen in first round. #2 seeds are 5-8-1 vs spread in their last 14 regional semis. Since 2006, there have been only six 2-6 seed games in this round; underdogs were 4-1-1 vs spread in those games.

Billy Donovan won his last six regional semifinal games, covering five of them; Gators are 23-4 in last 27 NCAA tournament games- they've won 28 games in row, with last loss Dec 2 at UConn. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. UCLA won its last five games, four by 17+ points; they lost 80-71 at Missouri of SEC back in December, beat Alabama by 8 at home. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread.

Arizona (-3.5) won 69-60 at San Diego State Nov 14, holding Aztecs to 36% from floor, but Ashley played/Polee didn't that night. Wildcats are 9-2 in last 11 games- they held Weber/Gonzaga to 60 ppg last weekend. Over last three years, #1 seeds are 2-8 vs spread in this round, 5-5 SU. Last 14 times a #4 seed played a #1 seed in this round, #4 seeds went 10-4 against the spread. Aztecs played 13-14 seeds last week, which is a help in advancing; they beat Washington by 7 in another Pac-12 game.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 26

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
VMI vs. OHIO
No trends available
Ohio is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Ohio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
YALE vs. COLUMBIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Yale's last 9 games on the road
Yale is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Columbia is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Yale
Columbia is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Yale

10:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. PACIFIC
San Diego is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Pacific is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Pacific is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

7:15 PM
DAYTON vs. STANFORD
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Stanford's last 7 games
Stanford is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

7:47 PM
BAYLOR vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 6 games

9:45 PM
UCLA vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games

10:17 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Diego State

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 26

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NIT quarterfinals betting cheat sheet
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Florida State Seminoles (-2.5, 147.5)

The Bulldogs forced 14 turnovers - 13 in the first half - and made seven of their first eight long-range shots in Saturday's win over Georgia. Alex Hamilton has led third-seeded Louisiana Tech with 32 points through the first two rounds of the NIT, while Chris Anderson (31) and Kenyon McNeail (29) aren't far behind. McNeail has been on fire from 3-point range, converting 16-of-33 over his last five games. On the defensive end of the court, Michale Kyser has notched 10 blocks in the first two games of the NIT and three different Bulldogs, including McNeail and Hamilton, recorded three steals against Georgia.

Florida State has hardly been an offensive juggernaut this season, but the Seminoles posted their highest point total of the year their last time out and look to follow up on that effort Wednesday when they host Louisiana Tech in the NIT quarterfinals.The top-seeded Seminoles are just 200th in the nation in scoring (70.4 points), and their lack of consistency has been evident thus far in the NIT. Prior to their offensive explosion against Georgetown, they barely snuck past Florida Gulf Coast, 58-53, as they shot just 42.2 percent and turned the ball over 16 times in that one.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Seminoles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last six home games.


California Golden Bears at Southern Methodist Mustangs (-8.5, 136.5)

The Golden Bears finished third in the Pac-12 but were denied an NCAA tournament berth after losing to Colorado in the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Golden Bears have used a smaller lineup with Solomon out, and freshman guard Jabari Bird has responded by averaging 15 points over the last two games. Forward David Kravish had 13 points and eight rebounds in Monday’s 75-64 win over Arkansas, but he’ll face a tougher test against the Mustangs, especially if Solomon is unable to return.

SMU recorded two wins over Connecticut during the regular season, but a loss to Houston in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinals sealed the Mustangs’ fate. They have the fourth-most wins in program history and are 17-1 at home, including 11-1 at Moody Coliseum, site of Wednesday’s game. Five players scored in double figures in Monday’s 80-67 win over LSU, with guards Nick Russell and Nic Moore combining for 32 points.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Mustangs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Golden Bears last six overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 26

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Thursday's Sweet 16 props: DAY/STAN small lead total
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The Sweet 16 is finally upon us and with it the final stretch run to crowning an NCAAB Champion. Books are expecting Stanford and Dayton to be a tight one as that game has the lowest O/U largest lead at 13.

Here are your prop bets for Thursday's college hoops action (Odds courtesy of LVH Superbooks):

UCLA VS FLORIDA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: KYLE ANDERSON (UCLA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: SCOTTIE WILBEKIN (FLORIDA)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110


DAYTON VS STANFORD

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEVIN OLIVER (DAYTON)
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: CHASSON RANDLE (STANFORD)
OVER 17.5 -110
UNDER 17.5 -110


BAYLOR VS WISCONSIN

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: BRADY HESLIP (BAYLOR)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: FRANK KAMINSKY (WIS)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110


SAN DIEGO ST VS ARIZONA

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 9.5 -110
UNDER 9.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 15.0 -110
UNDER 15.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: XAVIER THAMES (SAN DIEGO ST)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON GORDON (ARIZONA)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 26


Home court a big advantage for SMU and its backers

The Southern Methodist Mustangs have been a pretty great bet at home all season long, and that has spilled over into the NIT tournament.

There was no place like Moody Coliseum for head coach Larry Brown and his team as the Mustangs covered their first nine games on their home floor. They finished the regular season 10-2 ATS at Moody and have 2-0 ATS there in the NIT, covering as 9.5 and 7-point faves over UC Irvine and LSU respectively.

The Mustangs have a quarterfinal matchup with the Cal Golden Bears Wednesday. They are currently 8.5-point faves over the Bears.


Izzo rejects idea of leaving Michigan State

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo wants everyone to know that he's happy in college after a USA Today report indicated the Detroit Pistons might be interested in the pursuing him after the season.

Izzo and the fourth-seeded Spartans are preparing to face top-seeded Virginia in an NCAA East Regional semifinal on Friday night. Michigan State is trying to reach its seventh Final Four under the 59-year-old Izzo.

"There's been so many rumors over the years," Izzo told ESPN's SportsCenter on Tuesday. "I look at people I used to recruit against years ago (that) said that I'd be gone, but I'm still here and some of those schools have had three different coaches.

"I've always said I'd never say never to anything because you never know what it brings. But I got so much more work to do here. I have a great president, a great AD and a football coach that I really get along (with). So this is a pretty good place for me right now. We're in a pretty good spot. Program's in pretty good shape. Ain't broke, so why fix it?"

The Pistons likely will be in the market for a new coach after the season. Maurice Cheeks was fired and John Loyer took over on an interim basis. The team is not expected to retain Loyer.

Michigan State has gone to 17 consecutive NCAA Tournaments and won one national title under Izzo. He has been mentioned as a candidate for NBA jobs in the past and nearly jumped to the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2011.

[StarDust Bum]

South Regional Tip Sheet

March 26, 2014


The South Region semifinals in Memphis will tip Thursday night at 7:15 p.m. Eastern when 10th-seeded Stanford (23-12 straight up, 19-12-2 against the spread) and 11th-seeded Dayton collide with a berth in the Elite Eight at stake. CBS will have the telecast.

As of Tuesday night, most books had the Cardinal listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 132.5. Bettors can back Dayton (25-10 SU, 19-12 ATS) to win outright for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135).

Archie Miller's team has won 12 of its last 14 games, including Saturday's 55-53 win over Syracuse as an 8.5-point underdog. The victory sent the Flyers to their first Sweet 16 since 1984 and earned Miller a contract extension that he signed on Monday.

Tyshawn Pierre led the way against the 'Cuse with 14 points and six rebounds. Jordan Sibert added 10 points, including a crucial 3-pointer at crunch time. The Flyers didn't allow the Orange to make the first trey on 10 attempts, and they limited it to only 18 points in the first half.

Dayton advanced to the Round of 32 by eliminating in-state rival Ohio St. 60-59 as a 6.5-point underdog. Vee Sanford banked home a runner with 3.8 seconds remaining to put the Flyers in front. On the Buckeyes' ensuing possession, Aaron Craft missed a last-gasp attempt at a game-winning bucket to bring his stellar career to an end.

Craft had made a twisting shot in the lane to put Ohio St. ahead with 15.5 ticks left. He finished with 16 points, five rebounds, four assists and four steals, but the senior point guard was also forced into committing five turnovers.

Stanford is making its first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2008 when it also advanced to the Sweet 16. And there was nothing fluky about what the Cardinal accomplished this past weekend in St. Louis. Johnny Dawkins's team raced out to an early double-digit lead against New Mexico, withstood a strong second-half charge from the Lobos and then polished them off in a 58-53 win as a 4.5-point underdog. Stanford made 8-of-15 shots from 3-point land and Chasson Randle scored a team-high 23 points.

In third-round action Sunday, Stanford took advantage of its size and the absence of Kansas freshman center Joel Embiid to pull another upset. Again, the Cardinal took command from the start en route to a 60-57 victory as a 6.5-point 'dog. Dwight Powell led the way with 15 points and seven rebounds.

Stanford advanced thanks to a tremendous defensive effort. KU star Andrew Wiggins was forced into a quiet exit from his only career NCAA Tournament appearance. Wiggins made only 1-of-6 shots and had as many turnovers (four) as points (four). Wayne Selden Jr. was also kept in check and scored only two points.

The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive Stanford games and six of its last seven. The 'under' is 18-14-1 overall for the Cardinal. The 'over' is 16-14 overall for Dayton. The late game pits top-seeded Florida (34-2 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) versus fourth-seeded UCLA. As of early Tuesday night, most books had the Gators favored by 4.5 with a total of 137. The Bruins were +170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

UF has eliminated UCLA (28-8 SU, 23-12 ATS) from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006, including a blowout win in the finals that year. In 2007, the Gators dismissed the Bruins in the national semifinals at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

Then in 2011, Erving Walker took over at crunch time to lead Florida past the Bruins. However, UCLA has completely different personnel now and the sideline battle will be between Billy Donovan and Steve Alford rather than Ben Howland.

After an embarrassing blowout loss at Washington St. in its regular-season finale, UCLA has won five consecutive games both SU and ATS. The Bruins spanked Oregon 82-63 in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals, ending the Ducks' eight-game winning streak in the process. Next, they demolished Stanford as three-point 'chalk,' before besting Arizona to win the tourney in Las Vegas.

Last weekend in San Diego, Alford's bunch pulled away late to cover the number in a 76-59 triumph over Tulsa as an 8.5-point favorite. Jordan Adams dropped 21 points on the Golden Hurricane and also pulled down eight rebounds. Kyle Anderson finished with eight points, six board, six assists, four steals and two blocked shots.

UCLA has been an underdog eight times this year, compiling a 4-4 record both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Florida has posted a 7-6 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit 'chalk.'

The 'under' has gone 4-1 in UF's last five games to improve to 21-10-1 overall. The Gators' previous seven totals have been 132 points or fewer. They haven't seen a total of more than 137 points since there was a 142-point tally in their 84-82 overtime win at Arkansas on Jan. 11.

The 'under' is in the midst of a 5-1 surge for the Bruins, who have seen the 'under' go 19-15 overall.

UF-UCLA will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Stanford-Dayton.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Will Muschamp had this to say about Billy Donovan to the media on Tuesday, "I think he's the best college coach in the country. I'm not talking about just basketball."

-- On Tuesday, Donovan signed an extension with UF through 2019 that bumps his salary up to $3.7 million per year. He's worth every penny.

-- As of early Tuesday night, all indications out of both Milwaukee and Richmond were that Shaka Smart was staying at VCU. Marquette and Wake Forest had been interested in Smart, who informed incoming VCU recruits that he wasn't going anywhere on Monday night. Wake Forest is now targeting Xavier coach Chris Mack for its vacant position. Mack has ties to the Demon Deacons, once serving as an assistant on the late Skip Prosser's staff in Winston Salem.

-- Most books have Florida as the -175 'chalk' to win the South Region. UCLA has +275 odds to advanced from Memphis to Dallas, while the odds for Stanford and Dayton are +725 and 11/1, respectively.

-- UF's Scottie Wilbekin is the 7/1 'chalk' to win Most Outstanding Player in the Tournament. Louisville's Russ Smith has 9/1 odds.

[StarDust Bum]

March Madness Record:

20- 27.....................*****

19- 15.....................DOUBLE PLAY

13 - 12 - 1 ....................TRIPLE PLAY


Wednesday, March 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Columbia -5 500 *****
Columbia - Over 127 500

VMI - 7:00 PM ET VMI +8.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Ohio - Over 166 500

Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Florida St. - Over 151 500

Illinois St. - 7:00 PM ET Siena -2 500
Siena - Under 133.5 500

California - 9:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -8 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Southern Methodist - Over 138.5 500

San Diego - 10:00 PM ET San Diego +3.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Pacific - Over 139.5 500

Old Dominion - 10:00 PM ET Fresno St. -7.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Fresno St. - Over 133.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

West Regional Tip Sheet

March 26, 2014


South Regional Tip Sheet

The West Region semifinals in Anaheim will get started Thursday night at 7:45 p.m. Eastern when Wisconsin and Baylor will do battle. TBS will have the broadcast.

Wisconsin (28-7 straight up, 19-16 against the spread), the region's No. 2 seed, blasted American by a 75-35 count as a 13.5-point favorite in a second-round showdown in Milwaukee. The 110 combined points dipped 'under' the 119.5-point total.

In its third-round game Saturday night against seventh-seeded Oregon, Bo Ryan's team played from behind for most of the night. Nevertheless, the Badgers used a late second-half surge to not only capture an 85-77 victory, but they also buried clutch free throws in the final minute to cover the number as six-point favorites.

All five Wisconsin starters were in double figures against the Ducks. Frank Kaminsky, who averages team-highs in scoring (13.6 points per game), rebounding (6.3 RPG), field-goal percentage (52.0%) and blocked shots (1.7 BPG), had a team-best 19 points. Traevon Jackson finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and five assists, while Sam Dekker tallied 12 points, eight boards and four assists.

This year's version of Wisconsin is unlike Ryan's teams of the past. These Badgers aren't afraid of an up-tempo pace and aren't content to play grinder games that often lead to 'unders.' The shoot-out with Oregon is a clear indicator of this fact, as the 162 combined points easily jumped 'over' the 145.5-point total.

And bettors saw it coming. The total was at 142 at most books Saturday morning, but it got bet up at least 3.5 points at most spots. The 'over' is on a 5-1 run in Wisconsin's last six games to improve to 19-15 overall.

Wisconsin is similar to past teams in that it takes care of the basketball. In fact, the Badgers commit the fewest turnovers of anyone in the country, averaging just 8.0 per game. They also shoot well from 3-point land, burying 37.3 percent of their attempts from deep. Even the seven-footer Kaminsky can stroke it from downtown.

Baylor (26-11 SU, ATS) sure doesn't look like a sixth seed. After losing eight of its first 10 games in Big 12 play, going 2-7-1 ATS during that span, Scott Drew's team has looked like the Final Four contender many thought it would be back in November.

Baylor has won 12 of its last 14 games, going 10-3-1 ATS over that stretch. The Bears dominated both of their foes, 11th-seeded Nebraska and third-seeded Creighton, this past weekend.

Baylor raced out to an early double-digit lead and coasted to a 74-60 win over the Cornhuskers as a four-point favorite Friday afternoon. Then on Sunday, Drew's team destroyed Creighton by an 85-55 count as a 3.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a +140 return (paid $140 on $100 wagers).

Creighton was the nation's best 3-point shooting team all year long. However, with its length and quickness. Baylor's zone defense stymied the Bluejays, forcing them into a miserable 5-of-22 shooting performance from beyond the arc. Doug McDermott scored only 14 points against the Bears.

Brady Heslip and Isaiah Austin both scored 17 points against Creighton . Heslip buried 5-of-7 attempts from 3-point land. Cory Jefferson and Kenny Cherry chipped in 14 points apiece.

As of Wednesday night, most books had Wisconsin favored by 3.5 with a total of 136.5. Baylor was +140 to win outright.

At the top of the West Region bracket, form held to create a 1/4 showdown between Arizona and San Diego State. Most books opened the Wildcats as six-point favorites, but they were favored by 7.5 as of Wednesday night. The total was 121.5 or 122. Bettors can get the Aztecs on the money line for a generous +290 payout (risk $100 to win $290).

Arizona (32-4 SU, 21-14 ATS) failed to cover in a second-round win over Weber State (68-59), but they easily took the cash in an 84-61 blowout win over Gonzaga as 7.5-point 'chalk.' Aaron Gordon stuffed the box scored against the 'Zags, going off for 18 points, six rebounds, six assists and four steals. Nick Johnson added 17 points, five boards, five helpers, four rejections and three steals

San Diego State (31-4 SU, 19-13 ATS) has only lost once in its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS during that stretch. The Aztecs narrowly escaped a serious upset bid from 13th-seeded New Mexico State in their second-round contest last weekend. They had to go to overtime before winning a 73-69 decision.

Xavier Thames, who leads the Aztecs in scoring (17.3 PPG), had 23 points, five assists and three steals against the Aggies, who took the cash as eight-point underdogs.

Steve Fisher's team had an easier time in its third-round game, ousting North Dakota State 63-44 as a four-point 'chalk.' Thames led the way again with 30 points and five assists.

The 'under' has produced profit galore in San Diego State games this season, going 23-8 overall and 5-1 in its last six outings.

The 'over' has hit in three straight Arizona games and seven of its last 10. Nevertheless, the 'under' maintains a stellar 20-12-2 overall ledger for Sean Miller's squad.

These schools met in San Diego on November 14, with Arizona capturing a 69-60 win as a three-point road favorite. Johnson was the catalyst with a team-high 23 points, while Gordon added 16 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

In the losing effort, Thames and J.J. O'Brien scored 19 points apiece.

This game will tip around 10:20 p.m. Eastern on TBS.