The Bum's NCAA Basketball Picks Thru March Madness & Madness GOY !!

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tips - Session 2

March 20, 2014


(11) Tennessee vs. UMass (6) – Midwest Regional (CBS, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Line Report

This morning’s opening line had Tennessee favored as a 2 ½-point favorite over UMass after last night’s win over Iowa (78-65). Since then it has quickly jumped to four points. The total has been set at 136.

Non-Conference Record

Tennessee (9-4): The Volunteers lost back-to-back games to Wichita State (70-61) and NC State (65-58) in mid-December, but on the plus side they closed-out the month with romp over Virginia (87-52)

UMass (13-1): The Minutemen did not play the most daunting schedule, but along with the win over New Mexico (81-65), they also beat Nebraska (96-90), BYU (105-96) and Providence (69-67)

Road/Neutral Record

Tennessee: 8-9

UMass: 12-6

Current Form

Tennessee: Along with Wednesday night’s victory over the Hawkeyes, the Volunteers have gone 6-1 in their last seven games with the only loss coming against Florida (56-49) in the SEC Tournament semifinals.

UMass: The Minutemen are just 3-3 in their last six games including a loss to George Washington (85-77) in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals.

Betting Notes

Tennessee: The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and the total has stayed UNDER in all six contests

UMass: UMass has gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last six outings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 non-conference games.

(14) Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Creighton (3) – West Regional (truTV, 3:10 p.m. ET)

Line Report

Creighton opened as a 14 ½-point favorite and the line has dropped slightly to 14 points. The total was set at 154 ½ and it has held steady throughout the week.

Non-Conference Record

Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4): The Ragin’ Cajuns played two tournament teams this season, but they were not competitive in losses Baylor (87-68) and Louisville (113-74).

Creighton (12-2): The Bluejays’ two setbacks came in back-to-back losses to San Diego State (86-80) and George Washington (60-53) in the Wooden Legacy Tournament.

Road/Neutral Record

Louisiana-Lafayette: 10-9

Creighton: 10-7

Current Form

Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns comes into this tournament on a four-game run after stunning Georgia State (82-81) in the Sun Belt Tournament’s title game.

Creighton: The Bluejays went just 3-3 in their last six games including two losses to Providence. The second loss to the Friars (65-58) came in the Big East Tournament’s title game.

Betting Notes

Louisiana-Lafayette: UL-Lafayette is just 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games against a team with a SU winning record.

Creighton: The Bluejays are 1-6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the NCAA Tournament. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven neutral-site games.

(15) Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas (2) – South Regional (TBS, 4:10 p.m. ET)

Line Report

This line opened with Kansas favored by 13 points but now it is hovering between 14 and 14 ½ points. The total has taken a big jump from 144 ½ to anywhere between 150 to 151 points.

Non-Conference Record

Eastern Kentucky (9-4): The Colonels lost to NC State (75-56), VCU (71-68) and Wisconsin (86-61) in a brutal four-game stretch late November and early December.

Kansas (9-4): The Jayhawks also went 1-3 in the exact same time-frame with losses to Villanova (63-59), Colorado (75-72) and Florida (67-61). They also fell to San Diego State (61-57) in their final non-conference game.

Road/Neutral Record

Eastern Kentucky: 12-7

Kansas: 10-8

Current Form

Eastern Kentucky: Starting with a win against Jacksonville State (86-65) on Feb. 15, the Colonels are riding a seven-game winning streak including a victory over Belmont (79-73) in the Ohio Valley Championship.

Kansas: The Jayhawks dropped three of their last five games including a double-digit loss to Iowa State (94-83) with Joel Embiid sitting out the Big 12 title game.

Betting Notes

Eastern Kentucky: The Colonels are 5-2 ATS during their current seven-game winning streak and the total has gone OVER in five of the games.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine non-conference games. The total has stayed UNDER in 21 of their last 26 NCAA Tournament games.

(9) Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga (9) – West Regional (TNT, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Line Report
The Cowboys opened as one-point favorites, but this has been driven up to three points on most boards. The total is currently set between 139 and 139 ½ after opening at 143 ½.

Non-Conference Record

Oklahoma State (12-1): The Cowboys rolled through the non-conference portion of the program, but in an odd scheduling quirk, they split a pair of games against Memphis.

Gonzaga (10-3): The Bulldogs lost to Dayton (84-79) and Kansas State (72-62) in their first 13 games this season and in the middle of their WCC schedule they lost to Memphis (60-54) as well.

Road/Neutral Record

Oklahoma State: 8-9

Gonzaga: 13-6

Current Form

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys closed-out the regular season with a loss to Iowa State (85-81) to snap a four-game winning streak. They were eliminated from the Big 12 Tournament with a loss to Kansas (77-70).

Gonzaga: The Bulldogs won the WCC regular season title with a record of 15-3 and they ran their current winning streak to five games with a victory over BYU (75-64) in the tournament title game.

Betting Notes

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games.

Gonzaga: The Bulldogs have covered in four of their last five games, but they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games.

[StarDust Bum]

Early Round Betting Trends

March 19, 2014


The 2014 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent trend results that have occurred in Round One games.

Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

BILLION DOLLAR BRACKET BUSTING

If your dream of designs is completing the perfect bracket (read: picking every winner in every game and cashing in on a one billion prize), enjoy the dream.

You have a better chance of winning 50 Powerball lotteries in your lifetime!

Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket sheet are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 – or better than one in nine quintillion.

Hint: you can reduce the odds to one in 13.5 billion simply by picking the No. 1 seeds over the No. 16 seeds and going from there. Now how’s that for putting you in the game.

Now that you’re feeling better about your chances, concentrate, instead on picking the Final Four teams. That’s 16 to the fourth power, or one in 65,536.

Incidentally, there have been only eight teams seeded lower than No. 6 to reach the Final Four since 1985: 1985 Evansville (8), 1986 LSU (11), 2000 North Carolina (8), 2000 Wisconsin (8), 2006 George Mason (11), 2011 Butler (8), 2011 VCU (11) and 2013 Wichita State (9).

For what it’s worth, Sheldon Jacobson, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois, informs us the most likely Final Four seed combination is 1, 1, 2, 3. The odds against this occurring are about 16 to 1. It has happened three times in the past 28 years. Chalk artists beware: the odds of all four No.1 seeds reaching the Final Four: 47.5 to 1.

And long shot lovers note: the odds of a No. 16 seed reaching the Final Four: 828 to 1. The odds of all four No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four: about one trillion to 1.

PLANTING THE SEED

No. 1 seeds are 92-0 SU and 51-40-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 8-1 ATS if favored by less than 20 points.

No. 2 seeds are 85-7 SU and 39-49-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 13-26-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

No. 3 seeds are 81-11 SU and 49-41-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 36-1 SU & 27-9-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.

No. 4 seeds are 72-20 SU and 52-29-1 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 35-17 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points.

No. 5 seeds are 58-34 SU and 44-48 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 10-9 SU and 9-12 ATS the last five years. In addition, No. 12 seeds that participated in last year’s event are 21-16 SU against No. 5’s dating back to 1985. Those No. 12 seeds who did not play in this tournament the previous season are 20-59 SU in this round. FYI: a No. 12 seed has failed to beat a No. 5 seed only twice since 1988.

No. 6 seeds are 63-29 SU and 50-40-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 10-8 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS win of more than 7 points.

No. 7 seeds are 52-40 SU and 49-42-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 2-7 SU and ATS 1-7 ATS when the No. 10 seed is off back-to-back SU losses.

No. 8 seeds are 45-47 SU and 44-46-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS as favorites of 3 or more points.

FIRST ROUND NOTES

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS)

ACC: 4-1-1, Atlantic 10: 3-0, Big Ten: 3-0, Big 12: 0-4, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 1-7, Colonial: 8-4, C-USA: 2-5, Horizon: 4-2, MAC: 3-1, Missouri Valley: 3-1, Mountain West: 4-2-1, Pac-12: 51, Sun Belt: 4-1, SEC: 3-1, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 1-3.

Best team records (SU) in this round:

N Carolina: 11-0, Kansas: 7-0, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Tulsa: 5-0; Arizona State, Ohio State: 4-0, Kentucky 18-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round:

Nebraska: 0-5.

Best team ATS records in this round:

VCU: 6-0, Iowa State, Saint Louis, Xavier: 6-1, Florida: 5-1, Kansas State, Michigan, NC State: 4-1.

Worst team ATS records in this round:

Nebraska: 0-5, Massachusetts, Texas, Villanova: 0-3, Oregon: 1-7, Creighton: 1-4.

Best conference ATS records in this round:

Colonial: 5-1, Big Ten: 14-3, MAC dogs: 9-2, PAC 12 dogs: 7-2.

Worst conference ATS records in this round:

Big West: 1-6, Big East dogs: 1-4, Ivy: 3-12, Big 12: 4-11.

MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS

Favorites of more than 7 points who are 3-0 SUATS last three games are 19-36 vs. opponent off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. opponent off a SU loss.

Favorites of 20 or more points are 1-7-1 vs. an opponent off a DD SU win.

Favorites of more than 7 points who scored 100 points or more in their last tourney game are 12-2.

Underdogs of 4 or more points playing off a SU tourney win as a dog of 6 or more points are 10-30-1 ATS the last fifteen years.

Dogs of 18 or more points off a DD ATS win are 7-1.

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then it’s time to visit a cardiologist.

I’ll return next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite Eight round action.

[StarDust Bum]

"Off the Board" Schools

March 19, 2014
!

Following are straight-up and point-spread results for all of the "Off" conferences in NCAA Tournament play since 1994. While straight-up wins are certainly not common for these lower-echelon conference reps in NCAA action, they are not unheard of, either, as the best of this lot has been able to cause real damage in recent years.

Some of those who have famously succeeded in sub-regionals over the past decade include last year's darling, Florida Gulf Coast, plus others from recent years such as Morehead State, Siena, Winthrop, Bucknell, Vermont, Northwestern State, Montana, Lehigh, and Norfolk State.

Some of these lower-rung leagues have definitely done better than others vs. the point-spread in NCAA play. Such as Southern Conference teams, now 17-7-1 vs. the line in NCAA play since '94 (Davidson covering last year vs. Marquette).

Meanwhile, America East reps have been steady spread losers (8-16) in the Dance since '94, though Albany covered a big price last year vs. Duke.

"Ws" and "Ls" below reflect the point-spread result for the "off" team in the matchup:

AMERICA EAST
(Straight-up record 3-21 since 1994, Against the Spread record 8-16 since '94)

1994-Drexel (+9½) 39-61 L vs. Temple 39-61
1995-Drexel (+16) 49-73 L vs. Ok. State
1996-Drexel (+6) 75-63 W vs. Memphis
Drexel (+6) 58-69 L vs. Syracuse
1997-Bucknell (+7½) 52-81 L vs. Tulsa
1998-Delaware (+16) 56-95 L vs. Purdue
1999-Delaware (+10½) 52-62 W vs. Tennessee
2000-Hofstra (+12½) 66-86 L vs. Ok. State
2001-Hofstra (+7) 48-61 L vs. UCLA
2002-Boston U. (+24) 52-90 L vs. Cincinnati
2003-Vermont (+25½) 51-80 L vs. Arizona
2004-Vermont (+20) 53-70 W vs. UConn
2005-Vermont (+20) 60-57 (OT) W vs. Syracuse; Vermont (+8½) 61-72 L vs. Michigan State
2006-Albany (+21½) 59-72 W vs. UConn
2007-Albany (+8½) 57-84 L vs. Virginia
2008-UM-Baltimore County (+16½) 47-66 L vs. Georgetown
2009-Binghamton (+22) 62-86 L vs. Duke
2010-Vermont (+16) 56-79 L vs. Syracuse
2011-Boston U (+22½) 53-72 W vs. Kansas
2012-Vermont (-4) 71-59 W play-in vs. Lamar; Vermont (+16) 58-77 L vs. North Carolina
2013-Albany (+19) 61-73 W vs. Duke
2014-Albany

ATLANTIC SUN
(SU 4-21, ATS 13-11-1)

1994-Charleston (+9) 58-68 L vs. Wake Forest; Central Florida (+23½) 67-98 L vs. Purdue 67-98
1995-Florida International (+31) 56-92 L vs. UCLA
1996-Central Florida (+30) 70-92 W vs. UMass
1997-Charleston (+6½) 75-66 W vs. Maryland, Charleston (+5½) 69-73 W vs. Arizona
1998-Charleston (+14) 57-67 W vs. Stanford
1999 Samford (+15½) 43-69 L vs. St. John's
2000-Samford (+13½) 65-79 L vs. Syracuse
2001-Georgia State (+7½) 50-49 W vs. Wisconsin, Georgia State (+14) 60-79 L vs. Maryland
2002-Florida Atlantic (+18) 78-86 W vs. Alabama
2003-Troy State (+12) 59-71 N vs. Xavier
2004-Central Florida (+14) 44-53 W Pittsburgh
2005-Central Florida (+18) 71-77 W vs. UConn
2006-Belmont (+24) 44-78 L vs. UCLA
2007-Belmont (+16½) 55-80 L vs. Georgetown
2008-Belmont (+20) W 70-71 W vs. Duke
2009-East Tennessee State (+20) 62-72 W vs. Pitt
2010-East Tennessee State (+19) 71-100 L vs. Kentucky
2011-Belmont (+4) 58-72 L vs. Wisconsin
2012-Belmont (+3½) 59-74 L vs. Georgetown
2013-Florida Gulf Coast (+13½) 78-68 W vs. Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast (+7) 81-71 W vs. San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast (+13) 50-62 W vs. Florida. Note: known as Trans-America Conference until 2001.
2014-Mercer

BIG SKY
(SU 3-20, ATS 10-12-1)

1994-Boise State (+18) 58-67 W vs. Louisville
1995-Weber State (+15) 79-72 W vs. Michigan State, Weber State (+7½) 51-53 W vs. Georgetown
1996-Montana St. (+9) 55-88 L vs. Syracuse
1997 Montana (+20½) 54-92 L vs. Kentucky
1998-Northern Arizona (+14½) 62-65 W vs. Cincinnati
1999-Weber State (+13) 76-74 W vs. North Carolina, Weber State (+8) 72-80 OT N vs. Florida
2000-Northern Arizona (+14) 56-61 W vs. St. John's
2001-CS Northridge 75-99 L (+12½) vs. Kansas
2002-Montana (+20½) 62-81 W vs. Oregon
2003-Weber State (+6½) 74-81 L vs. Wisconsin
2004-Eastern Washington (+16½) 56-75 L vs. Oklahoma
2005-Montana (+20½) 77-88 W vs. Washington
2006-Montana +7) 87-79 W vs. Nevada, Montana (+10½) 56-69 L vs. Boston College
2007-Weber State (+20) 42-70 L vs. UCLA
2008-Portland State (+22) 61-85 L vs. Kansas
2009-Portland State (+10½) 59-77 L vs. Xavier
2010-Montana (+9) 57-62 W vs. New Mexico
2011-Northern Colorado (+14½) 50-68 L vs. San Diego State
2012-Montana (+9) 49-73 L vs. Wisconsin
2013- Montana (+12 ½) 34-81 (L) vs. Syracuse
2014-North Daktoa State

BIG SOUTH
(SU 3-18, ATS 8-13)

1996-UNC Greensboro (+18) 61-66 W vs. Cincinnati
1997-Charleston Southern (+18) 75-109 L vs. UCLA
1998-Radford (+31) 63-99 L vs. Duke 63-99
1999-Winthrop (+28) 41-80 L vs. Auburn
2000-Winthrop (+16½) 50-74 L vs. Oklahoma
2001-Winthrop (-2½) 67-71 L play-in vs. Northwestern State
2002-Winthrop (+33½) 37-84 L vs. Duke
2003-UNC Asheville (+1) 82-74 W play-in vs. Texas Southern, UNC Asheville (+27½) 61-82 W vs. Texas
2004-Liberty (+24) 63-82 W vs. Saint Joseph's
2005-Winthrop (+13½) 64-74 W vs. Gonzaga
2006-Winthrop (+7) 61-63 W vs. Tennessee
2007-Winthrop (-3½) 74-64 W vs. Notre Dame, Winthrop (+3) 61-75 L vs. Oregon;
2008-Winthrop (+9½) 40-71 L vs. Washington State
2009-Radford (+25½) 58-101 L North Carolina
2010-Winthrop (-3) 44-61 L play-in vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
2011-UNC Asheville (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. UA-Little Rock, UNC Asheville (+18) 51-74 L vs. Pittsburgh
2012-UNC Asheville (15½) W 65-72 vs. Syracuse
2013-Liberty (+2½) 72-73 W play-in vs. North Carolina A&T. No reps '94-95
2014-Coastal Carolina

METRO-ATLANTIC
(SU 6-21, ATS 12-15)

1994-Loyola Md. (+24½) 55-81 L vs. Arizona
1995-St. Peter's (+22) 51-68 W vs. UMass, Manhattan (+7½) 77-67 W vs. Oklahoma, Manhattan (+6½) 54-64 L vs. Arizona
1996-Canisius (+13) 43-72 L vs. Utah
1997-Fairfield (+27) 74-82 W vs. North Carolina
1998-Iona (+5½) 61-63 W vs. Syracuse 61-63 ;
1999-Siena (+7) 80-94 L Arkansas
2001-Iona (+14½) 59-74 L vs. Maryland
2001-Iona (+10½) 70-72 W vs. Ole Miss
2002-Siena (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. Alcorn State; Siena (+28½) 70-85 W vs. Maryland
2003-Manhattan (+7½) 65-76 L vs. Syracuse
2004-Manhattan (+5) 75-60 W vs. Florida, Manhattan (+7) 80-84 W vs. Wake Forest
2005-Niagara (+12) L 67-84 vs. Oklahoma
2006-Iona (+7½) 64-80 L vs. LSU
2007-Niagara (-2½) 77-69 W play-in vs. Florida A&M, Niagara (+19) 67-107 L vs. Kansas
2008-Siena (+6½) 83-62 W vs. Vanderbilt, Siena (+5½) 72-84 L vs. Villanova
2009-Siena (+) 74-72 W 2-OT vs. Ohio State, Siena (+12) 72-79 W vs. Louisville
2010-Siena (+4½) 64-72 L vs. Purdue
2011-St. Peter's (+14½) 43-65 L vs. Purdue
2012-Loyola Md. (+17½) 59-78 L vs. Ohio State
2013-Iona (+14½) 70-95 L vs. Syracuse
2014-Manhattan

MEAC
(SU 5-19, ATS 13-11)

1994-NC A&T (+29) 79-94 W vs. Arkansas
1995-NC A&T (+23) 47-79 L vs. Wake Forest;
1996-S.C. State (+30½) 54-92 L vs. Kansas;
1997-Coppin State (+18½) 78-65 W vs. South Carolina, Coppin State (+11½) 81-82 W vs. Texas;
1998-S.C. State (+26½) 67-82 W vs. Kentucky;
1999-Florida A&M (+46) 58-99 W vs. Duke;
2000-S.C. State (+31½) 65-84 W vs. Stanford;
2001-Hampton (+17½) 58-57 W vs. Iowa State, Hampton (+13) 57-76 L vs. Georgetown;
2002-Hampton (+12½) 67-78 W vs. UConn;
2003-S.C. State (+27) 54-71 W vs. Oklahoma;
2004-Florida A&M (+4) 72-57 W play-in vs. Lehigh, Florida A&M (+28) 76-96 W vs. Kentucky;
2005-Delaware State (+26½) 46-57 W vs. Duke;
2006-Hampton (+3½) 49-71 L play-in game vs. Monmouth;
2007-Florida A&M (+2½) 69-77 L play-in vs. Niagara;
2008-Coppin State (+3) 60-69 L play-in vs. Mount Saint Mary's;
2009-Morgan State (+16) L 54-82 vs. Oklahoma;
2010-Morgan State (+16½) 50-77 L vs. West Virginia;
2011-Hampton (+23) 45-87 W vs. Duke;
2012-Norfolk State (+21½) 86-84 W vs. Missouri; Norfolk State (+14½) 50-84 L vs. Florida;
2013-North Carolina A&T (-2½) 73-72 L play-in vs. Liberty, North Carolina A&T (+26) 48-79 L vs. Louisville
2014-North Carolina Central

NORTHEAST
(SU 2-20, ATS 12-9-1)

1994-Rider (+19) 46-64 W vs. UConn
1995-Mt. St, Mary's (+31) 67-113 L vs. Kentucky
1996-Monmouth (+14) 44-68 L vs. Marquette
1997-Long Island (+13½) 91-101 W vs. Villanova
1998-FDU (+14½) 85-93 W vs. UConn
1999-Mt. St. Mary's (+26) 53-76 W vs. Michigan State
2000-Central Connecticut (+18) 78-88 W vs. Iowa State
2001-Monmouth (+35½) 52-95 L vs. Duke
2002-Central Connecticut (+15) 54-71 L vs. Pittsburgh;
2003-Wagner (+20½) 61-87 L vs. Pittsburgh
2004-Monmouth (+20½) 52-85 L vs. Mississippi State
2005-Fairleigh Dickinson (+26) 55-67 W vs. Illinois
2006-Monmouth (-3½) 71-49 W play-in vs. Hampton, Monmouth (+19½) 45-58 W vs. Villanova
2007-Central Connecticut (+21) 57-78 N vs. Ohio State
2008-Mount Saint Mary's (-3) 69-60 W play-in vs. Coppin State; Mount Saint Mary's (+25) 74-113 L vs. North Carolina
2009-Robert Morris (+17) 62-77 W vs. Michigan State
2010-Robert Morris (+17) 70-73 W (OT) vs. Villanova
2011-Long Island (+18) 87-102 W vs. North Carolina
2012-Long Island (+19) 67-89 L vs. Michigan State
2013-Long Island (+1) L 55-68 play-in vs. James Madison
2014-Mount St. Mary's

OHIO VALLEY
(SU 4-20, ATS 14-10)

1994-Tennessee State (+18½) 70-83 W vs. Kentucky
1995-Murray State (+20) 70-80 W vs. North Carolina
1996-Austin Peay (+15) 79-90 W vs. Georgia Tech
1997-Murray State (+23½) 68-71 W vs. Duke
1998-Murray State (+12½) 74-97 L vs. Rhode Island
1999-Murray State (+8) 58-72 L vs. Ohio State
2000-SE Missouri State (+12½) 61-64 W vs. LSU
2001-Eastern Illinois (+21½) 76-101 L vs. Arizona
2002-Murray State (+9) 68-85 L vs. Georgia
2003-Austin Peay (+16) 64-86 L vs. Louisville
2004-Murray State (+9) 53-72 L vs. Illinois
2005-Eastern Kentucky (+16½) 64-72 W vs. Kentucky
2006-Murray State (+11½) 65-69 W vs. North Carolina
2007-Eastern Kentucky (+27½) 65-86 W vs. North Carolina
2008-Austin Peay (+15½) 54-74 L vs. Texas: 2009-Morehead State (-3) 58-43 W play-in vs. Alabama State, 58-43, Morehead State (+21) W vs. Louisville, 54-74
2010-Murray State (+2½) 66-65 W vs. Vanderbilt, Murray State (+4½) 52-54 W vs. Butler
2011-Morehead State (+9½) 62-61 W vs. Louisville, Morehead State (+4) 48-65 L vs. Richmond
2012-Murray State (-5) 58-41 W vs. Colorado State; Murray State (+5) 53-62 L vs. Marquette
2013-Belmont (+4½) 64-81 L vs. Arizona
2014-Eastern Kentucky

PATRIOT
(SU 3-20, ATS 12-11)

1994-Navy (+20½) 53-76 L vs. Missouri
1995-Colgate (+27) 68-82 W vs. Kansas
1996-Colgate (+28) 59-68 W vs. UConn
1997-Navy (+19½) 61-75 W vs. Utah
1998-Navy (+28) 52-88 L vs. North Carolina
1999-Lafayette (+17½) 54-75 L vs. Miami Florida
2000-Lafayette (+21½) 47-73 L vs. Temple; Holy Cross (+20) 68-72 W vs. Kentucky
2002-Holy Cross (+28½) 59-70 W vs. Kansas
2003-Holy Cross (+10) 68-72 W vs. Marquette
2004-Lehigh (-4) 57-72 L play-in vs. Florida A&M
2005-Bucknell (+13½) 64-63 W vs. Kansas, Bucknell (+8) 62-71 L vs. Wisconsin
2006-Bucknell (+5) 59-55 W vs. Arkansas, Bucknell (+8) 56-72 L vs. Memphis
2007-Holy Cross (+7½) 51-61 L vs. Southern Illinois
2008-American (+19½) 57-72 W vs. Tennessee
2009-American (+16) 67-80 W vs. Villanova
2010-Lehigh (+25½) 74-90 W vs. Kansas
2011-Bucknell (+20) 52-81 L vs. UConn
2012-Lehigh (+12) 75-70 W vs. Duke; Lehigh (+4) 58-70 L vs. Xavier
2013-Bucknell (+3½) 56-58 L vs. Butler
2014-American

SOUTHERN
(SU 5-20, ATS 17-7-1)

1994-UT Chattanooga (+12) 73-102 L vs. Kansas
1995-UT Chattanooga (+16) 71-100 L vs. UConn
1996-Western Carolina (+20) 71-73 W vs. Purdue
1997-UT Chattanooga (+9) 73-70 W vs. Georgia, UT Chattanooga (+10) 75-63 W vs. Illinois, UT Chattanooga (+8) 65-71 W vs. Purdue
1998-Davidson (+15) 61-80 L vs. Michigan
1999-Charleston (-2) 53-62 L vs. Tulsa
2000-Appalachian State (+13½) 61-87 L vs. Ohio State;
2001-UNC Greensboro (+30) 60-89 W vs. Stanford;
2002-Davidson (+12½) 64-69 W vs. Ohio State;
2003-East Tennessee State (+12½) 73-76 W vs. Wake Forest;
2004-East Tennessee State (+9) 77-80 W vs. Cincinnati;
2005-Chattanooga (+17½) 54-70 W vs. Wake Forest;
2006-Davidson (+10½) 62-70 W vs. Ohio State;
2007-Davidson (+7) 70-82 L vs. Maryland;
2008-Davidson (-2) 82-76 W vs. Gonzaga, Davidson (+5) 74-70 W vs. Georgetown, Davidson (+4½) 73-56 W vs. Wisconsin, Davidson (+9½) 57-59 W vs. Kansas;
2009-Chattanooga (+20½) 47-103 L vs. UConn;
2010-Wofford (+10) 49-53 W vs. Wisconsin;
2011-Wofford (+8½) 66-74 W vs. BYU;
2012-Davidson (+7) 62-69 N vs. Louisville;
2013-Davidson (+3½) 58-59 W vs. Marquette
2014-Wofford

SOUTHLAND
(SU 3-20, ATS 9-13-1)

1994-SW Texas State (+16) 60-78 L vs. UMass
1995-Nicholls State (+13½) 72-96 L vs. Virginia
1996-NE Louisiana (+19½) 50-62 W vs. Wake Forest
1997-SW Texas State (+22) 46-78 L vs. Minnesota
1998-Nicholls State (+26) 60-99 L vs. Arizona
1999-UT San Antonio (+26½) 66-91 W vs. UConn
2000-Lamar (+32½) 55-82 W vs. Duke
2001-Northwestern State (+2½) 71-67 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Northwestern State (+26½) 54-96 L vs. Illinois
2002-McNeese State (+10½) 58-70 L vs. Mississippi State
2003-Sam Houston (+19) 55-85 L vs. Florida
2004-UT San Antonio (+24) 45-71 L vs. Stanford
2005-SE Louisiana (+18½) 50-63 W vs. Oklahoma State
2006-Northwestern State (+6½) 64-63 W vs. Iowa, Northwestern State (+8) 54-67 L vs. West Virginia
2007-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+13) 63-76 N vs. Wisconsin
2008-UT-Arlington (+25) 63-87 W vs. Memphis
2009-Stephen F. Austin (+12) 44-59 L vs. Syracuse
2010-Sam Houston State (+12½) 59-68 W vs. Baylor
2011-UT San Antonio (-3) 70-61 W play-in vs. Alabama State, UT San Antonio (+24½) 46-75 L vs. Ohio State
2012-Lamar (+4) 59-71 L play-in vs. Vermont
2013-Northwestern State (+20) 47-79 L vs. Florida
2014-Stephen F. Austin

SWAC
(SU 1-19, ATS 9-11)

1994-Texas Southern (+20) 70-82 W vs. Duke
1995-Texas Southern (+18) 78-79 W vs. Arkansas
1996-Miss. Valley St. (+26) 56-93 L vs. Georgetown
1997-Jackson State (+35½) 64-78 W vs. Kansas
1998-Prairie View (+36½) 52-110 L vs. Kansas
1999-Alcorn State (+22) 57-69 W vs. Stanford
2000-Jackson State (+27½) 47-71 W vs. Arizona
2001-Alabama State (+28½) 35-69 L vs. Michigan State
2002-Alcorn State (+4½) 77-81 W play-in vs. Siena
2003-Texas Southern (-1) 74-82 L play-in vs. UNC Asheville
2004-Alabama State (+34) 61-96 L vs. Duke
2005-Alabama A&M (+6) 69-79 L play-in vs. Oakland
2006-Southern U (+24½) 54-70 W vs. Duke
2007-Jackson State (+28) 69-112 L vs. Florida
2008-Mississippi Valley State (+31½) 29-70 L vs. UCLA
2009-Alabama State (+3) 43-58 L play-in vs. Morehead State
2010-Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+3) 61-44 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff (+14½) 44-73 L vs. Duke
2011-Alabama State (+3) 61-70 L play-in vs. UT San Antonio
2012-Mississippi Valley State (-1) 58-59 L vs. Western Kentucky
2013-Southern U (+22½) 58-64 W vs. Gonzaga
2014-Texas Southern

SUMMIT
(SU 3-18, ATS 7-13-1)

1996-Valparaiso (+18) 51-90 L vs. Arizona
1997-Valparaiso (+10) 66-73 W vs. Boston College
1998-Valparaiso (+12) 70-69 W vs. Ole Miss, Valparaiso (+7½) 83-77 OT W vs. Florida State, Valparaiso (+8) 68-74 W vs. Rhode Island
1999-Valparaiso (+20) 60-82 L vs. Maryland
2000-Valparaiso (+25½) 38-65 L vs. Michigan State
2001-Southern Utah (+14) 65-68 W vs. Boston College
2002-Valparaiso (+7½) 68-83 L vs. Kentucky
2003-IUPUI (+26½) 64-95 L vs. Kentucky
2004-Valparaiso (+18½) 49-76 L vs. Gonzaga
2005-Oakland (-6) W 79-69 play-in vs. Alabama A&M; Oakland (+27½) L 68-96 vs. North Carolina
2006-Oral Roberts (+12) 78-94 L vs. Memphis
2007-Oral Roberts (+6½) 54-70 L vs. Washington State
2008-Oral Roberts (+8½) 63-82 L vs. Pittsburgh
2009-North Dakota State (+10) 74-84 N vs. Kansas
2010-Oakland (+10) L 66-89 vs. Pittsburgh
2011-Oakland (+10) 81-85 W vs. Texas
2012-South Dakota State (+7½) 60-68 L vs. Baylor
2013-South Dakota State (+11) L 56-71 Michigan. No reps '94-95. Note: known as Mid-Continent Conference until 2007
2014-North Dakota State

[StarDust Bum]

Day One Recap

March 21, 2014


While on one hand, the talking heads around the country seem to be collectively willing Michigan State and Louisville and any other “public” team to make deep runs in the Big Dance, nothing captivates the masses quite like a Cinderella story in the postseason, or upsets of any kind. Which is why the most-compelling storylines of Thursday’s NCAA sub-regional action involved a near upset of Rick Pitino’s Cardinals and a couple of “non-upset” upsets that had the network commentators and analysts acting as if they had just watched a basketball equivalent of Buster Douglas shocking Mike Tyson by knockout, 24 years ago (can it be that long since that night in Tokyo?).

Indeed, there was nothing too earth-shattering about well-respected 12th seed North Dakota State, which closed a 3 to 3½-point underdog, knocking off 5th seed Oklahoma by an 80-75 count in overtime at Spokane (though the game did feature some last-second dramatics that allowed the Bison to force overtime). Nor was 12th-seeded Harvard’s win, by a 61-57 count over another five seed, Cincinnati, considered much of an upset, given that the Crimson closed as a mere 2½ -point dog. After all, Harvard did the same thing last season, beating New Mexico, only in a more-genuine upset, by almost the same score (61-58), at Salt Lake City.

There were, however, some exciting moments on Thursday, when four of the sixteen now-called “second-round” games required overtime. As has often been the case in recent Big Dances, the five seed was a treacherous one, with aforementioned Oklahoma and Cincinnati going down vs. 12 seeds, while another five, Saint Louis, was all but beaten in its matchup vs. 12-seed NC State at Orlando before rallying from 16 down deep in the second half (more on that game in a moment). Other historical notes on Thursday included aforementioned Harvard becoming the first Ivy entry since Pete Carril’s Princeton of 1983-84 to win games in back-to-back NCAA Tourneys, while those Bison of ND State became the first team from North Dakota to ever win a game in the Dance.

Still, a lot of the noteworthy games on Thursday were caused by some very careless and sloppy play by teams, with some of them noted in our highlights of the day.

1. NC State’s collapse vs. Saint Louis...When the Wolfpack stretch the lead to 16 points (55-39) with eight minutes to play, and still led by 14 with five minutes to go, the Billikens should have been finished. Instead, Mark Gottfried’s team began an excruciating meltdown caused mostly by faulty free throw shooting, missing a staggering 11 charity tosses in the final 3:09 to enable Saint Louis to force an overtime and then prevail, 83-80. The otherwise-marvelous NC State soph, T. J. Warren, scored 28 points, but missed 8 of his 14 free throw tries, and that doesn’t count the one he missed and then stepped over the free-throw stripe too early too negate his a rebound of his own miss. It does include his miss of a possible game-tying FT with 30 seconds to play that would have completed a 3-point play. Instead, he unwisely was the NC State player who committed the foul on the subsequent SLU possession, disqualifying him from proceedings, meaning he was off the court when the Wolfpack had two more possessions and a chance to tie the game.

2. Louisville’s escape...Facing a mirror-image Manhattan side coached by Rick Pitino disciple Steve Masiello, the defending champion Cardinals were in deep trouble and trailed by 3 with inside of four minutes to play before some late triples by Russ Smith and Luke Hancock bailed out the ‘Ville in a 71-64 final that was much closer than the scoreline suggests. Manhattan showed absolutely no fear of the Cardinals and reminded the many ‘Ville cheerleaders in the media that Pitino’s team is far from invincible. As for Masiello, he has instantly become one of the new flavors of the month in the coaching circle, although his Pitino-like approach suggests he has the stuff to be one of the next big-name coaches. Whether current openings such as Boston College, Virginia Tech or Wake Forest are enough to lure him remain to be seen; something tells us Masiello might be waiting for a call from a bigger name in the not-too-distant future.

3. Dayton drama...Thursday promised to be a chaotic day from the outset when the very first tip-off of the day between Dayton and Ohio State ended with a frenzied finish. In a back-and-forth game, the Flyers’ Vee Sanford drove past Ohio State’s Aaron Craft and banked in a go-ahead runner with 3.8 seconds to go, providing the winning points in Dayton’s 60-59 win that wasn’t secured until Craft’s off-balance attempt at the buzzer, after a breathless near full-court dash in the final seconds, bounced off of the rim and backboard. Thad Matta’s Buckeyes thus ended their string of four straight Sweet 16 appearances.

4. Texas drama...Thrill-ride finish number two of the day happened in Milwaukee where the longhorns scored a buzzer-beating 87-85 win over Arizona State. It was not artistic, as the last two key Texas baskets, including a three-point play by Jonathan Holmes with 32 seconds to play, and Cameron Ridley’s short bank shot at the buzzer, were made possible only by horrifically-missed Texas field goal attempts that didn’t even hit the rim, first by Javan Felix and next by Holmes in the final seconds, to move the Longhorns a chance at rebounds they probably don’t get on a regular missed shot. Homes’ three -point misfire in the final seconds was so “short” that it took an unnatural bounce off of the lower portion of the backboard to Ridley, who otherwise was too deep to snare a normal rebound bounce. Holmes had earlier fielded a Felix air ball to score his big bucket. Sometimes, being a bit lucky is better than being a bit good.

5. The twelve seeds strike again...Again, we’re not sure that previously-mentioned wins by Harvard and North Dakota State were really upsets at all. Harvard’s credentials as a legit March entry were established a year ago with a similar lineup. The Bison needed a bit more drama to get past Oklahoma, with Lawrence Alexander’s triple with 12 seconds to play bringing NDSU level with Oklahoma to 66-66 and presaging the overtime period that the Bison dominated. What might impress more about the NDSU win was that top scorer Taylor Braun did not contribute much, missing 8 of 11 field goal tries en route to a subpar 11-point effort...yet the Bison still won and will face San Diego State on Saturday. The remaining fifth seed on Friday, Virginia Commonwealth, is thus forewarned about its matchup with Southland champ Stephen F Austin.

5. Aztecs near meltdown...Speaking of San Diego State, the last 118 times it had led with five minutes to play entering Thursday night’s game at Spokane against New Mexico State, the Aztecs had won. The streak is now at 119 after the 73-69 OT victory over New Mexico State, but the latest win probably merits an asterisk, because it didn’t have to be so close. Steve Fisher’s team led by eight with 1:24 to play before missed free throws, blown box-outs and one disastrous turnover enabled the Aggies to tie the game with a deep 3-pointer with six seconds left in regulation. Xavier Thames scored five points in overtime to help the Aztecs survive.

6. Will a 16 seed ever beat a 1 seed? We’ll have three more longshot chances on Friday, but there might be hope for the 16s after Albany put up a very decent fight vs. South top seed Florida at Orlando, with the Gators forced to work hard before finally settling for a 77-65 win over the 22-point underdog Great Danes, who might have confused Florida with their two-toned shorts that were somewhat reminiscent of Chuck Wepner’s blue-and-red trunks from his 1975 fight vs. Muhammad Ali at the old Richfield Coliseum outside of Cleveland. In Albany’s case, the colors are purple and gold, and its Great Dane mascot was one of Thursday’s best. On Friday, Coastal Carolina (vs. Virginia), Cal Poly SLO (vs. Wichita State), and Weber State (vs. Arizona) give it another shot for the 16s, who have been on an 0-fer ever since they debuted at the 1985 version of the Big Dance.

7. Conference update....We were about to start talking about the revival of the ACC until NC State surrendered that late lead against Saint Louis, as Pitt and Syracuse (loop newcomers both, but now ACC members all the same) had impressed in their wins earlier in the day. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke get their shots on Friday. If there is a conference to take note of thus far in the college postseason (all tourneys considered), it might be the Summit, whose aforementioned North Dakota State won over Oklahoma, but also netted success in the CIT, where IPFW beat Akron and Nebraska-Omaha whipped North Dakota, with all Summit reps also covering numbers in the process. The only Summit casualty in early action came in the CBI, where South Dakota State lost close at Old Dominion.

We just had to make those CIT and CBI mentions!

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Wake Forest fired hoop coach Jeff Bzdelik; at some point, Ben Howland will get another job, won't he?

-- Angels traded Mike Scioscia's son to the Cubs for Wayne Gretzky's son. Seriously, they did. Both players play in Class A minor leagues.

-- Bubba Watson shot an 83 and WD from Arnold Palmer's tournament in Orlando; he had an 11 on one hole, then blamed his allergies.

-- NFL signing: Devin Hester to Atlanta, to bolster their return game.

-- If Chip Kelly doesn't want DeSean Jackson around anymore, why would anyone else want him?

-- Get well soon Aroldis Chapman, who had surgery to help fix broken bones in his face after he was sit by a line drive Wednesday night.

*****

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Wrapping up Day 1 of March Madness

Dayton 60, Ohio State 59-- Buckeyes don't play in-state teams in their non-conference schedule, but they had to play Dayton here and Flyers got a game-winning basket with 0:06 left to win it. Dayton outscored Ohio State in transition, 20-12; that wasn't expected. Good win for Atlantic 13.

Wisconsin 75, American 35-- American was winning 17-10 at one point; really, they were. Badgers are 17-12 in NCAA tourney under Bo Ryan, but 13 of the 17 wins are against teams seeded 10th or worse.

Pittsburgh 77, Colorado 48- Buffaloes overachieved to get into the NCAAs after losing star guard Spencer Dinwiddie early in conference season, but they laid an egg here and got trounced. Panthers were 6.5-point favorites; that was the biggest spread in any 8-9 game since 1987.

Harvard 61, Cincinnati 57-- When you get a technical foul for not having a player in the scorebook, thats on your coaching staff, even moreso since that happened in the Mountain West tourney last week, so EVERYONE should be aware of it. Harvard was the tougher team in this game; Bearcats missed a ton of short shots (17-45, 37.8%) inside the arc. Thats on the players.

Syracuse 77, Western Michigan 53-- When Orange won national title in 2003, they played two games here in Albany, where the arena setting gave them more of a home court edge than they're used to in their dome at home. Same thing here; arena in Buffalo gives them a formidable home court edge.

Florida 67, Albany 55-- Game was 39-all with 14:10 left, but the best team in America isn't losing to the 4-seed from America East. Will Brown is 4-1 vs spread in NCAA tournament games, and he's played some of the big boys-- UConn, Duke, Virginia, Florida.

Oregon 87, BYU 68-- Selection Committee has to be happy with the way Thursday went, but BYU didn't belong in the field with Collinsworth hurt. Ducks have now won nine of their last ten games. They'll have a tough time beating the Badgers in Milwaukee Saturday.

Michigan State 93, Delaware 78-- Adreian Payne scored 41, but Izzo has to be concerned with Delaware going 30-39 on foul line. Only two Spartans played more than 25:00; they get Harvard Saturday. State was 10-19 from arc in this game; that doesn't happen every day.

UConn 89, St Joe's 81 ot-- Hard to win any game when your bench plays total of 9:00, and in OT to boot. UConn hit 11-24 from arc and still needed an extra 5:00 to win, inferring that the better team may have lost. First win in NCAAs for Kevin Ollie, who gets old friend Villanova Saturday.

Michigan 57, Wofford 40-- Southern Conference teams generally cannot compete athletically with big-time schools. That was the case here. After Day 1 of the tournament. only 18,741 out of 11M+ -plus brackets got all 16 games right; Warren Buffett probably isn't too worried.

Saint Louis 83, NC State 80 ot-- With 8:13 to go, Wolfpack was up by 16; they were still up six in last minute. State was 20-37 from foul line, and that will haunt them until practice starts in October.

North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 ot-- Lawrence Alexander tied game with a trey at 0:12 mark, then more experienced Bison won in OT, giving the Summit League a rare postseason win. Had New Mexico State won late last night, we would have had the strangest second round game ever, but Bison are facing San Diego State in their next game.

Villanova 73, Milwaukee 53-- Only thing that kept this game from extreme ugliness was Wildcats starting 1-19 from the arc. Wildcats are a funny team; they've won a lot of games, but are seldom real impressive. Only two of their guys played more than 27:00, which will help Saturday.

Texas 87, Arizona State 85-- Total heartbreak for ASU, as last five Texas points came off of offensive rebounds after horrible airballs. Jahii Carson had 19 points, nine assists in his last college game. Seriously, if Texas hits the rim with either of its last two jumpshots, they probably would've lost.

Louisville 71, Manhattan 64-- Hancock bailed defending champs out of a fierce struggle with couple of 3-pointers late. Mirror image teams fought like hell for two hours; bad news for Manhattan is that coach Masiello won't be coaching the Jaspers very much longer; he is destined for bigger things.

San Diego State 73, New Mexico State 69 ot-- Aztecs held on to win in OT in a far less-publicized teacher/pupil matchup. San Diego State led by 12 at the half, but Aggies fought back as Aztecs damn near gagged game away at end of regulation. San Diego State lost to Florida Gulf Coast LY, now they're playing North Dakota State Saturday. Hello, Cinderella......

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

FRIDAY, MARCH 21

Game 823-824: Mercer vs. Duke (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 55.402; Duke 70.933
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Duke by 12 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-12 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Coastal Carolina vs. Virginia (9:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 53.168; Virginia 71.410
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 18; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 21; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (+21); Under

Game 827-828: George Washington vs. Memphis (6:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 62.426; Memphis 67.993
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 5 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 829-830: Stanford vs. New Mexico (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 68.385; New Mexico 68.202
Dunkel Line: Even; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4); Under

Game 831-832: Eastern Kentucky vs. Kansas (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.716; Kansas 70.742
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 13; 152
Vegas Line: Kansas by 15; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15); Over

Game 835-836: Kansas State vs. Kentucky (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 63.668; Kentucky 71.295
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-5); Under

Game 837-838: Nebraska vs. Baylor (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 66.260; Baylor 71.837
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 5 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3); Over

Game 839-840: UL-Lafayette vs. Creighton (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.892; Creighton 72.541
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 17; 158
Vegas Line: Creighton by 13 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-13 1/2); Over

Game 841-842: Providence vs. North Carolina (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.636; North Carolina 70.487
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 139
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4; 143
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4); Under

Game 843-844: North Carolina Central vs. Iowa State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 62.369; Iowa State 67.345
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9; 144
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina Central (+9); Under

Game 845-846: Stephen F. Austin vs. VCU (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 62.457; VCU 66.241
Dunkel Line: VCU by 4; 129
Vegas Line: VCU by 6 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (+6 1/2);

Game 847-848: Tulsa vs. UCLA (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.629; UCLA 73.110
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2; 154
Vegas Line: UCLA by 9; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-9); Over

Game 849-850: Weber State vs. Arizona (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.314; Arizona 70.720
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Arizona by 20; 127
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+20); Under

Game 851-852: Oklahoma State vs. Gonzaga (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.094; Gonzaga 69.274
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 1; 143
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+2 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MERCER (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
DUKE is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


COASTAL CAROLINA (21 - 12) vs. VIRGINIA (28 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 9:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
VIRGINIA is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GEORGE WASHINGTON (24 - 8) vs. MEMPHIS (23 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 6:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 210-162 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 139-89 ATS (+41.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STANFORD (21 - 12) vs. NEW MEXICO (27 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


E KENTUCKY (24 - 9) vs. KANSAS (24 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
E KENTUCKY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KANSAS ST (20 - 12) vs. KENTUCKY (24 - 10) - 3/21/2014, 9:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEBRASKA (19 - 12) vs. BAYLOR (24 - 11) - 3/21/2014, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEBRASKA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEBRASKA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
NEBRASKA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEBRASKA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEBRASKA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA-LAFAYETTE (23 - 11) vs. CREIGHTON (26 - 7) - 3/21/2014, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PROVIDENCE (23 - 11) vs. N CAROLINA (23 - 9) - 3/21/2014, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PROVIDENCE is 37-58 ATS (-26.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 139-106 ATS (+22.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NC CENTRAL (28 - 5) vs. IOWA ST (26 - 7) - 3/21/2014, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 42-28 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SF AUSTIN ST (31 - 2) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TULSA (21 - 12) vs. UCLA (26 - 8) - 3/21/2014, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
UCLA is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UCLA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
UCLA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games this season.
TULSA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
TULSA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
TULSA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
TULSA is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
TULSA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TULSA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TULSA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WEBER ST (19 - 11) vs. ARIZONA (30 - 4) - 3/21/2014, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WEBER ST is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) after a conference game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OKLAHOMA ST (21 - 12) vs. GONZAGA (28 - 6) - 3/21/2014, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-15 ATS (-8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday, March 21

Mercer at Duke, 12:15 ET
Mercer: 16-5 ATS as an underdog
Duke: 6-1 UNDER in all tournament games

Coastal Carolina at Virginia, 9:25 ET
C Carolina: 4-1 ATS in all tournament games
Virginia: 13-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Geo Washington at Memphis, 6:55 ET
Geo Washington: 0-7 ATS in a post-season tournament game
Memphis: 15-5 UNDER as a favorite

Stanford at New Mexico, 1:40 ET
Stanford: 13-4 OVER in road games after a loss by 15 points or more
New Mexico: 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Eastern Kentucky at Kansas, 4:10 ET
E Kentucky: 6-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
Kansas: 17-8 OVER as a favorite

Kansas State at Kentucky, 9:40 ET
Kansas St: 11-2 UNDER in all neutral court games
Kentucky: 16-7 UNDER as a favorite

Nebraska at Baylor, 12:40 ET
Nebraska: 20-10 ATS in all games
Baylor: 7-0 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders

UL - Lafayette at Creighton, 3:10 ET
UL - Lafayette: 2-10 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more
Creighton: 16-7 ATS in non-conference games

Providence at North Carolina, 7:20 ET
Providence: 27-48 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins
N Carolina: 30-19 ATS as a favorite

NC Central at Iowa State, 9:50 ET
NC Central: n/a
Iowa St: 33-18 OVER in all neutral court games

Stephen F. Austin at VA Commonwealth, 7:25 ET
Stephen Austin: 4-0 UNDER as a neutral court underdog
VA Commonwealth: 7-0 ATS in the first round of the NCAA tournament

Tulsa at UCLA, 9:55 ET
Tulsa: 15-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Ucla: 3-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog

Weber State at Arizona, 2:10 ET
Weber State: 1-8 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more
Arizona: 14-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week

Oklahoma State at Gonzaga, 4:40 ET
Oklahoma St: 18-7 ATS in first round tournament games
Gonzaga: 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 21

Friday's NCAA games

afternoon games
Duke doesn't play great defense, giving up 82 points to Wake Forest, 90 to Vermont; Blue Devils are 1-8 vs spread in first round games last nine times they weren't a #1 seed. Last time they made Final Four when they were lower than a 1-seed was back in '94. Duke starts three sophs and freshman, more talented guys than Bears have, but Mercer starts five seniors, shoot 38.9% from arc, and they're finally in this spot after falling just short last couple years. Mercer lost at Texas by 3, won at Ole Miss, lost by 14 at Oklahoma. Over last three years, #3 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in this round.

Nebraska is in NCAAs for first time since '98; they've never won a game in NCAAs, but they've broken lot of trends this winter. Huskers won eight of last ten games, losing by 4 to Ohio State in Big Dozen tourney. Baylor won 10 of last 12 games, losing Big 12 final Sunday; Bears are in NCAAs for fourth time in last seven years, winning last two first round games by 9-8 points. Over last decade, favorites are 22-18 vs spread in 6-11 games, 7-1 over last two years. Nebraska starts four sophomores so they're set for a few years, albeit young now; they better keep Baylor off boards. Bears are #3 offensive rebounding team in country.

New Mexico got upset by Harvard in 3-14 game LY, has new coach, lot of same players back; Lobos are 17-3 in last 20 games, with no losses by more than three points. New Mexico is 11-2 in last 13 road/neutral court games. Stanford is in NCAAs for first time in six years, first time under Dawkins; they're 3-4 in last seven games, 5-4 in last nine road/neutral games. Cardinal play all juniors/seniors in their rotation. Lobos start juniors/seniors, with first two subs frosh/soph, including coach's son Neal, who shoots 37.2% on arc. Stanford lost home game in November 112-103; they could struggle vs Lobo big guys. Over last five years, dogs are 15-5 vs spread in 7-10 games.

Weber State won Big Sky tourney as top seed, but 14-6 conference record makes them a 16-seed; over last six years, #1 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in first round games. Wildcats lost by 23 to UCLA in its only game this year vs Pac-12 opponent. Arizona is expected to make Final Four; they're 6-4 vs spread in last ten first round games. Wildcats beat Northern Arizona by 33 in its only game with Big Sky opponent this season. Weber is 8-5 in its last 13 games, with three losses in OT. Big Sky teams got trounced in first round last three years, by 18-24-47 points, with Montana losing 81-34 to Syracuse LY.

Tennessee beat Iowa by 13 in OT Wednesday after trailing most of game; Volunteers have now won six of last seven games, with close loss to Gators in SEC tourney. Three Vols played 39+ minutes vs Iowa, all five starters played 32+, as Martin played seven guys. Tennessee beat Virginia by 35 in December, very impressive game. UMass finished 8-7 in its last 15 games after being 16-1 in mid-January; Minutemen are in NCAAs for first time in 16 years- they beat LSU 92-90 in November, its only game vs SEC foe this season. UMass' best player is 5-9 G Williams; Vols see lot of pressure in their Florida games, am thinking they can handle the UMass defense.

Creighton struggles with athletic, defensive teams, which UL-Lafayette is not; Ragin' Cajuns were down 10 with 4:00 left in Sun Belt final Sunday, rallied to upset Georgia State, is in NCAAs for first time since '05- they've won 11 of last 13 games after being 12-9. Sun Belt teams covered four of last five non-play-in NCAA tourney games, with WKU covering last two years, vs Kentucky/Kansas. Cajuns lost to Arkansas by 13, Baylor by 19, Louisville by 39 in its high profile games this season. Bluejays make 42.2% of their 3-point shots, best in country. Six-hour drive to San Antonio for ULL fans. Cajuns were #3 seed in Sun Belt, are surprised to be here.

Kansas' defense is struggling with big guy Embiid out (back) but that won't matter here; Jayhawks are 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games- they lost three of last five games, giving up 92-94 points to West Virginia/Iowa State in last three games. Eastern Kentucky is in tourney for first time in seven years (lost by 21 to UNC); Colonels won last seven games, beating Murray State/Belmont in OVC tourney- they lost at Wisconsin by 25, at VCU by 3 in OT in their two high profile games this season. Over last nine years, #2 seeds are 16-20 vs spread in this round, but #2 seed in this region lost SU each of last two years (Duke/Georgetown).

Oklahoma State seems like different team since Smart came back from his suspension, going 5-2 with both losses in OT. Cowboys lost center/backup PG during season but went 9-11 in nation's best league despite losing seven games in row, with Smart out for three of the seven. Gonzaga won its last five first round games, despite being underdog three of last four years; Zags lost to K-State by 10, won by 4 at West Virginia in its two games vs Big X opponents. Cowboys are 0-4 in overtime games this season. Over the last seven years, underdogs are 21-7 vs spread in 8-9 games. Normal trends say Gonzaga here, but I've got a feeling on Oklahoma State making a run in this tournament.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, March 21

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Trend Report
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12:15 PM
MERCER vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Duke is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games

12:40 PM
NEBRASKA vs. BAYLOR
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baylor's last 7 games when playing Nebraska
Baylor is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Nebraska

1:40 PM
STANFORD vs. NEW MEXICO
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Mexico's last 9 games
New Mexico is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
IUPU FORT WAYNE vs. OHIO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 6 games
Ohio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

2:10 PM
WEBER STATE vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

2:45 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MASSACHUSETTS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 6 games
Massachusetts is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

3:10 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. CREIGHTON
No trends available
Creighton is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

4:10 PM
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. KANSAS
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Kansas's last 23 games
Kansas is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

4:40 PM
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 5 games

6:55 PM
GEORGE WASHINGTON vs. MEMPHIS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games

7:00 PM
TOWSON vs. EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Towson is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Towson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:10 PM
CAL POLY vs. WICHITA STATE
No trends available
Wichita State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:20 PM
PROVIDENCE vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 11 of North Carolina's last 16 games
North Carolina is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

7:27 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Commonwealth's last 6 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

9:25 PM
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Virginia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games

9:30 PM
ROBERT MORRIS vs. BELMONT
No trends available
Belmont is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Belmont's last 7 games

9:40 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
Kentucky is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 7 games

9:50 PM
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL vs. IOWA STATE
No trends available
Iowa State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa State's last 6 games

9:57 PM
TULSA vs. UCLA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games
UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

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NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: East region Day 2
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(9) George Washington Colonials vs. (8) Memphis Tigers (-3, 142.5)

The Colonials finished behind only Massachusetts and VCU among the American Athletic Conference's scoring leaders, averaging 73.4 points. George Washington boasts a balanced offensive attack that features four players among the Atlantic 10's top 30 scorers. Maurice Creek's 14.3 points per game are a team best.

Memphis has lost three of its last five games overall and has yielded an average of 82 points in its last three losses. The Tigers' 53 points against Connecticut last time out matched their lowest output of the season and leading scorer Joe Jackson was held to 10 points on 4-of-12 shooting.

TRENDS:

* George Washington is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Under is 7-1 in Memphis' last eight non-conference games.


(11) Providence Friars vs. (6) North Carolina Tar Heels (-4, 143.5)

The Friars are making their first NCAA tournament appearance in 10 years and Bryce Cotton seems intent on capping his four-year career at Providence with a tournament victory. The 6-1 point guard is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 assists and has scored at least 22 in eight of the last 10 games.

There may be some concern that Tar Heels' forward James Michael McAdoo is slipping back into a rough patch after the 6-9 forward went without a rebound in 24 minutes of the regular-season finale against Duke, then shot 4-for-13 in the loss to Pittsburgh. In the last eight games, he’s shooting 37.7 percent while averaging 8.6 points, dropping his season average to 14.2.

TRENDS:

* Providence is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games versus the ACC.
* North Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Under is 9-2 in Providence's last 11 non-conference games.


(16) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. (1) Virginia Cavaliers (-21.5, 122.5)

While Coastal Carolina will be playing 2 1/2 hours from its campus in Conway, S.C., it enters NCAA play knowing that a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1. The Chanticleers earned their first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1993 by rolling over Winthrop 76-61 in the Big South championship game, their fifth consecutive victory.

Malcolm Brogdon scored 23 points and the Cavaliers played their usual stingy defense in Sunday's win over Duke to become the 15th team to win both the ACC regular-season and postseason titles. Joe Harris, who was second to Brogdon in scoring at 11.6 per game, had 15 points against Duke to earn tournament MVP honors for Virginia, which entered Sunday's game leading the nation in points allowed at 55.1 per game.

TRENDS:

* Coastal Carolina is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-2 in Virginia's last seven neutral site games.


(14) North Carolina Central Eagles vs. (3) Iowa State Cyclones (-8, 145)

The 14th-seeded Eagles are making their tournament debut in just their fourth season as a full-fledged Division I program after dominating the MEAC, winning 15 straight conference games and 17 in a row overall to finish the regular season before claiming three conference tourney games by an average of 26 points.

Iowa State owns the nation's sixth-ranked offense - led by Big 12 Player of the Year Melvin Ejim (18.1 points) - and has won 11 of its last 14 overall, including seven victories over tournament teams. With four double-digit scorers and an unselfish style that yielded the most assists per game in the nation, the Cyclones have many ways to hurt you, as evidenced by the Big 12 tournament title game in which Ejim was limited to just three baskets in 32 minutes.

TRENDS:

* North Carolina Central is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.
* Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 8-3 in Iowa State's last 11 games following a SU win.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

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NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Virginia destined for deep run
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No. 9 George Washington Colonials vs. No. 8 Memphis Tigers (-3, 142.5)

The Tigers may have a leg up on their first-round opposition. David Pellom, a fifth-year senior was at George Washington for three years, two of which were under current Colonials coach Mike Lonergan, before using his final year of eligibility at Memphis.

The Colonials just can’t seem to get any respect. Not only did tournament organizers mistakenly put the logo of the Georgetown Hoyas, G.W.’s D.C. neighbor, on tourney t-shirts but President Obama picked Memphis to topple the local Colonials (their campus is a half mile from the White House) in the first round. "You picked Memphis over your neighbors in Foggy Bottom? Come on man!" tweeted head coach Mike Lonergan.


No. 11 Providence Friars vs. No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels (-4, 143.5)

North Carolina head coach Roy Williams said Tuesday that the Tar Heels had one of their best practices of the year and had been focusing on rebounding. North Carolina is already one of the nation’s best rebounding teams - ranking eighth with 39.8 per game - and the ability to control the glass could be instrumental to controlling the pace, which the Heels inevitably want to push against the Friars’ seven-man rotation.


No. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-21.5, 122.5)

Since the tournament field expanded to 48 teams in 1980, 14 teams have both won at least a share of the ACC regular season title and claimed the ACC tournament. The first 13 all reached at least the Round of 16, with four claiming national titles and seven getting to the Final Four. Virginia pulled off the double this year and the Cavaliers seem unlikely to break from that trend.


No. 14 N.C. Central Eagles vs. No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones (-8, 145)

N.C. Central comes to the tournament by way of the MEAC - one of the two worst conferences in the nation - which has previously only had one team in the Top 150 in the nation at the end of the year. However, N.C. Central is currently 78th having won 12 of 15 conference games by double digits. The Eagles went 1-2 in three games against tournament teams, beating North Carolina State and losing to Wichita State and Cincinnati by 11 and 14 points respectively.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

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Round 2 betting cheat sheet: South Region Day 2
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(5) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+6.5, 137)

Virginia Commonwealth will enter the NCAA tournament as the South Region's fifth seed, taking on a 12 seed in Stephen F. Austin on a 28-game winning streak Friday in San Diego. VCU was unable to capture an Atlantic 10 championship Sunday, losing to Saint Joseph's 65-61 to snap a streak of six straight wins. The Rams shot 5-of-19 from behind the arc against the Hawks, and coach Shaka Smart saw that as a key factor, telling reporters, "We didn't put enough of them away and we had good looks."

The Lumberjacks have plenty of momentum as they get set for their second appearance in the Big Dance, having captured the Southland Conference tournament title with a win over Sam Houston State on Saturday to match the single-season school record for wins with their 31st of the season. Coach Brad Underwood led Stephen F. Austin to the Southland's first 30-plus win season and the first-year coach was left beaming with pride after capturing the conference crown. "For us to be on the national stage," Underwood said, "that means the world. We take great, great pride in being able to play for Stephen F. Austin University."

TRENDS:

*Rams are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games
*Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
*Under is 19-7 in the Rams last 26 non-conference games


(4) UCLA Bruins vs. (13) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+8.5, 146)

Two playing legends of NCAA tournaments past, Steve Alford and Danny Manning, will look to make more memories when the teams they coach, No. 4 seed UCLA and No. 13 seed Tulsa, respectively, match up in a South Regional second-round contest in San Diego on Friday. Both teams like to put points on the board, with the Bruins averaging 81.8 points and the Golden Hurricane at 73.1. The duo of Jordan Adams (17.2 ppg) and Kyle Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg) powers UCLA, while Tulsa relies on the scoring of James Woodard (15.7 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.1).

Both teams are coming off conference tournament championships, and both have had to fight back from rough stretches. The Bruins, in their first year under Alford, entered the Pac-12 tournament having lost three of six, including a humiliating 18-point setback to Washington State in the regular-season finale. The Golden Hurricane, meanwhile, started the season 0-4 and 1-6 before righting the ship in Manning's second season at the helm.

TRENDS:

*Golden Hurricane are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win
*Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games
*Under is 12-4 in Golden Hurricane last 16 games


(10) Stanford Cardinal vs. (7) New Mexico Lobos (-3, 137)

Stanford returns to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008 when the 10th-seeded Cardinal face No. 7 seed New Mexico in Friday's South Regional in St. Louis. The Lobos enter the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country after capturing their third consecutive Mountain West tournament title with a 64-58 win over San Diego State on Saturday. New Mexico has won nine of its last 10 games while Stanford dropped four of its final seven, including an 84-59 loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals.

While Stanford is playing in the NCAA tournament for the first time in six years under coach Johnny Dawkins, New Mexico is making its fourth appearance in the last five years. The Lobos are hoping to improve on last year’s showing, when they were upset as a No. 3 seed in the second round 68-62 by No. 14 seed Harvard. The Lobos are known for their strong frontcourt, but forward Cameron Bairstow and 7-foot center Alex Kirk should receive a solid test from Stanford forwards Dwight Powell and Josh Huestis.

TRENDS:

*Cardinal are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
*Lobos are 38-17-3 ATS in their last 58 games following a ATS win
*Under is 8-1 in Lobos last 9 overall


(15) Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. (2) Kansas Jayhawks (-14, 150.5)

No. 2 Kansas might not need freshman Joel Embiid during its NCAA tournament second-round game against No. 15 Eastern Kentucky on Friday in St. Louis. The Jayhawks' top rebounder hasn't played since March 1 because of lingering back issues but their first opponent - a Colonels team making its first tournament appearance since 2007 - is ranked at the bottom nationally in rebounding. The winner between these high-scoring teams - both average nearly 80 points - plays No. 7 New Mexico or No. 10 Stanford.

Glenn Cosey leads the Colonels, who beat defending champion Belmont to win the Ohio Valley tournament title, with his 3-point shooting. The Jayhawks, who were knocked out in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament and have lost three of five, are making their 25th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance - the nation's longest active streak. Andrew Wiggins leads the Jayhawks with 17.4 points and needs 16 to break Ben McLemore's Kansas freshman scoring record.

TRENDS:

*Colonels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
*Jayhawks are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games folloing a S.U. loss
*Over is 10-4 in Colonels last 14 games following a ATS win

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

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NCAA South Regional betting news and notes: Colonels' not-so-secret receipe
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No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Eastern Kentucky Colonels (+14, 150.5)

The Colonels have an obvious game plan entering their encounter with the heavily-favored Jayhawks: Make their two-point shots. Eastern Kentucky finished second in the nation in two-point shooting percentage (56.2), which is good because its offensive rebound rate of 23 percent is sixth-worst in all of Division I.


No. 5 Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (+6.5, 137)

The Rams' outside shooting takes a serious hit with the absence of Melvin Johnson, who will sit out the tournament opener with a knee sprain. The sophomore made better than 39 percent of his 3-point attempts, pacing a VCU team that led the Atlantic-10 conference with 252 3-pointers. In Johnson's absence, head coach Shaka Smart leaned on backup JeQuan Lewis for 24 minutes in the A-10 title game, getting five points and five assists from the reserve.


No. 4 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 13 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+8.5, 146)

Tulsa head coach Danny Manning emphasized an uptempo offense last season - his first at the helm - but it didn't bear frui. His freshman-dominated lineup struggled through fatigue and leg injuries to average just 67.9 points. This year, with the same core a season older and in better shape, Tulsa put up 73.1 points per game - good for second in C-USA. Despite that pace, the Golden Hurricane are just 6-10 O/U away from the Donald Reynolds Center this season.


No. 7 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 10 Stanford Cardinal (+3, 137)

No team in the South Regional is as starter-driven as the Cardinal, whose lineup of Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, Josh Huestis, Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic started every game this season. Stanford's bench scored 10 or fewer points 18 times, while the starting five accounted for more than 87 percent of the team's scoring. The Lobos are great at drawing fouls and forced an average of 23.7 whistles in their three MWC tournament games - 14th most in the country in a three-game span. New Mexico could test the Cardinal's depth if they can get Stanford in foul trouble.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 20

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NCAA Round 2 betting cheat sheet: Midwest region Day 2
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(14) Mercer Bears vs. (3) Duke Blue Devils (-12.5, 140.5)

Mercer, located in Macon, Ga., makes its third tournament appearance and first since 1985 after a 68-60 victory at Florida Gulf Coast - last year's Sweet 16 Cinderella team - in the Atlantic Sun final March 9. The Bears split four games against major conference teams this season, losing to Texas and Oklahoma while defeating Seton Hall and Mississippi.

With a player the caliber of freshman Jabari Parker (19.2 points, 8.8 rebounds), the Blue Devils are capable of outperforming their seed. Sophomore forward Rodney Hood (16.5 points) did not play in last season's tournament after transferring from Mississippi State and sitting out the sesaon, so he is also without NCAA experience.

TRENDS:

* Mercer is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.
* Duke is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Duke's last seven non-conference games.


(11) Tennessee Volunteers vs. (6) Massachusetts Minutemen (+4, 136)

Jarnell Stokes keyed the Volunteers’ victory over Iowa with 18 points and 13 boards, notching his 20th double-double, and scores 14.8 while grabbing 10.4 rebounds per game overall. First team All-SEC pick Jordan McRae leads the team in scoring (18.6) and has recorded at least 20 points 16 times, including Wednesday.

Senior guard Chaz Williams, the team’s all-time assist leader, stirs the drink for a deep Minutemen squad that includes seven players averaging at least 8.8 points. Williams registers 15.8 points and hands out seven assists per contest – third in the nation – while junior Cady Lalanne is second in scoring (11.4) and leads the team in rebounding (eight).

TRENDS:

* Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Massachusetts is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. the SEC.
* Under is 6-0 in Tennessee's last six games overall.


(16) Cal Poly SLO Mustangs vs. (1) Wichita State Shockers (-16, 125.5)

The Mustangs lost nine of their last 11 games in the regular season, but with a healthier lineup they swept through three games in the conference tournament and scored almost 18 more than their average coming in against Texas Southern. Senior Chris Eversley has recorded 17 points per game the in last three and sophomore Dave Nwaba 14.8 over the previous four contests.

The Shockers are the first team since UNLV in 1991 to enter the tournament unbeaten and look to make their 11th appearance overall a special one, starting in the difficult Midwest Regional. The Shockers showed their balance in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament as their top four scorers each totaled between 40 and 47 points combined in three games.

TRENDS:

* Cal Poly is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Wichita State is 5-0 AS in its last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-2 in Wichita State's last nine games overall.


(9) Kansas State Wildcats vs. (8) Kentucky Wildcats (-6, 132.5)

Kansas State, who is 0-8 all-time against Kentucky, are led by freshman guard Marcus Foster, who averages 15.6 points and 3.2 rebounds while shooting better than 40 percent from the field and on 3-pointers. He is complemented by junior Thomas Gibson, who is first in rebounding (6.5 per game) and second in points (11.8) and senior Shane Southwell, who averages 9.8 points.

Kentucky, who enter the tournament unranked, opened the season as the No. 1 team in the nation and stayed there for one week before falling down the rankings. Julius Randle leads a group of five freshmen starters with 15.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, but after posting six straight double-doubles, he struggled in the SEC final, going 1-of-7 and scoring four points and grabbing seven rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Kansas State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Kentucky is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1 in Kentucky's last five neutral site games.