NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 4 - Sunday, January 5)

[Udog]

Road team, Over the hot bet when NFL temperatures dip below freezing

The San Francisco 49ers will not only battle the Green Bay Packers and legions of Cheese Heads at Lambeau Field but also the brutal Wisconsin winter, which is forecasted to throw temperatures as low as zero degrees at the Californian visitors Sunday night.

Those bone-chilling temperatures could have many bettors leaning toward the acclimated home team (Packers +2.5) and the Under (45.5) Sunday night. However, recent history has shown the exact opposite when handicapping cold weather contests.

Home teams in games played in 19 degrees or below are 17-16-1 SU but just 13-22-0 ATS since 2004 – covering only 37 percent of the time. Drop that temperature to single digits and hosts are 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in that span. Lambeau Field has been the venue for three of those five cold-weather contests, with the Packers going 1-2 and 0-3 ATS.

Green Bay lost to New York, 23-20, as a 7.5-point home favorite in the 2008 NFC Championship with temperatures dipping to -1 degree. It fell 24-21 to the Houston Texans as 7-point home chalk on Dec. 7, 2008 in 3 degree weather, and beat the Atlanta Falcons 22-21 but failed to cover the 3.5-point spread in 9 degree temperatures at Lambeau in Week 14 of this season.

As for betting the NFL totals in cold weather games, the chilly surroundings haven’t cooled down offenses. Games played in 19 degrees or below have produced a 23-11-1 Over/Under record (67 percent Over) since 2004, with single-digit temperature contests coming out with a 2-3 O/U mark.

Green Bay isn’t the only place feeling the cold this Wild Card Weekend. The Philadelphia Eagles play host to the New Orleans Saints with the forecast at Lincoln Financial Field calling for a low of 27 degrees. And the Cincinnati Bengals welcome the San Diego Chargers to Paul Brown Stadium, where the thermometer is expected to teeter on the freezing point with a 100 percent chance of snow.

In games played below freezing – 31 degrees or less – home teams are 85-55-1 SU and 69-71-1 ATS since 2004. The biggest eyebrow raiser is the Over/Under mark in these cold weather matchups, with those contests finishing with a 84-54-3 O/U count – 60.6 percent to the Over.

The total in Philadelphia is set at 53.5 points, the number in Cincinnati is posted at 45.5, and the Over/Under in Green Bay is sitting at 45.5.

The NFC Wild Card weather in Green Bay should rank among the coldest NFL games ever and could finish as the second-coldest NFL game behind the infamous 1967 “Ice Bowl” between Green Bay and Dallas in which temperatures fell 13 degrees below zero.

[Udog]

NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Chargers at Bengals: What bettors need to know
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San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals were among three teams to compile an 8-0 record at home this season and look to keep that perfect mark intact when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The Bengals already won at San Diego 17-10 on Dec. 1 en route to capturing the AFC North title and reaching the playoffs for the third straight season. Cincinnati hopes the home-field edge can end a lengthy run of futility since its last postseason victory in January 1991.

Last month's loss appeared to KO San Diego's playoff hopes, but the Chargers rebounded to win their final four games, including a controversial overtime victory over Kansas City last week to snatch the final postseason slot. San Diego was held to a season-low point total and committed three turnovers in the first meeting and will have to contend with temperatures near freezing and a potential wintry mix. The only playoff matchup between the teams came in the 1982 AFC title game, when the Bengals prevailed in the "Freezer Bowl" that featured a wind chill of minus-59.

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Cincy opened as a 7-point fave. The total opened 46 and is down to 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 100 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow across the field at 4 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (9-7): Philip Rivers rebounded from a pair of turnover-riddled seasons to throw for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while leading the leading in completion percentage (69.5). Rookie Keenan Allen emerged as a go-to receiver with 71 catches for 1,046 yards and five 100-yard games, including eight catches for 106 yards in the first matchup with the Bengals. Ryan Mathews rushed for a career-high 1,255 yards but did not practice Thursday due to an ankle injury, while backfield mate Danny Woodhead hauled in 76 passes, second among running backs in the NFL. The Chargers ranked 23rd in yards allowed per game (366.5) but they held Peyton Manning and Denver's top-ranked offense to two of their three lowest point totals.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-5): The discrepancy in Cincinnati's performance at home versus on the road is stunning - the Bengals averaged 42 points and had a victory margin of 24 points over their last five home wins. Andy Dalton reached career highs in yards (4,296) and touchdowns (33), but he was also intercepted a career-worst 20 times, including four picks in last week's 34-17 victory over Baltimore. A.J. Green also established career highs with 98 catches for 1,426 while matching last season's total of 11 touchdown receptions to complement the running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard, who combined for 1,451 yards rushing. Cincinnati ranked fifth both against the run (96.5 yards) and pass (209) while limiting five opponents to 17 points or fewer at home.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Cincinnati.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in January.
* Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cincinnati has won the past three meetings, including a 20-13 victory at San Diego in December 2012.

2. Rivers is 3-4 with eight TD passes and nine interceptions in seven postseason games.

3. The Bengals are 0-4 and have failed to score more than 17 points in four playoff appearances under Marvin Lewis.


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NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Tale of the tape: Chargers at Bengals
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NFL Wild Card weekend kicks off as the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers travel to the third-seeded Cincinnati Bengals who put up an 8-0 home record.

Check out the matchup in our betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The Bengals are ranked seventh in the league in points averaging 26.9 a game. They are ranked 10th in yards averaging 368.2 yards and eight in passing yards with 258.5. The Bengals are second in the league in touchdowns scored with 54 - 14 rushing and 33 receiving. Wide receiver A.J. Green has 98 receptions, 11 touchdowns and 1,426 total yards. Second-year wide receiver Marvin Jones has also been a key target for Andy Dalton with 51 receptions for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Andy Dalton has put up a 61.9 percent completion percentage and is ranked seventh overall in total yards with 4,293.

The Chargers have five players this season who have at least 30 catches and one touchdown. Rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen set the receiving record with 1,046 yards and 71 catches. Allen became the first 1,000-yard rookie since A.J. Green in 2011 and is the fifth rookie since 2000 to go over the 1,000-yard mark. Quarterback Philip Rivers leads the NFL in completion percentage over 200 throws with 69.5 percent. He has a 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and is ranked fifth overall in total yards with 4,478.

Edge: Bengals


Defense

The Bengals defense is ranked in the top five in points allowed (19.1), yards (305.5), passing yards (209) and rushing yards (96.5). The Bengals have seven players with three or more sacks and their defense has recovered 11 fumbles. The Bengals have generated 20 interceptions that tie them for fifth in the league. Outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict leads the NFL in total combined tackles with 171. Alongside Burfict, middle linebacker Rey Maualuga’s versatility with pressuring the pocket and his ability to drop back into coverage helps complete the Bengals' dangerous defense.

The Chargers defense have been good at stopping the run allowing only 107.8 average yards. They have struggled in passing yards allowed (258.7) ranking them 29th and total yards 366.5. The Chargers only have one player with 100 or more tackles, free safety Eric Weddle with 115 combined tackles. Weddle also leads the team in interceptions with two. The Chargers defense has not been very good at getting to the quarterback and is ranked 23rd in total sacks with 35.

Edge: Bengals


Special Teams

Wide receiver Brandon Tate has returned 36 punts and has 16 fair catches averaging 9.3 yards per return. Cornerback Adam Jones has 11 returns averaging 8.0 yards per return. Brandon Tate has been exceptional at punt returns with 35 for 914 yards averaging 26.1 yards per return including a long of 43 yards. Kicker Mike Nugent has made 18-of-22 field goals (82 percent) with a long of 54 yards. Nugent has had one field goal attempt blocked.

Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Eddie Royal have returned punts for the Chargers. Allen has 15 returns and 13 fair catches averaging 8.3 yards per return. Royal has seven returns and seven fair catches averaging 5.9 yards per return. The Chargers have three players with over 100 yards in kick returns. Danny Woodhead has 12 kick returns for 262 yards including a long of 37 yards. Kicker Nick Novak has made 34-of-37 field goals (92 percent). He is a perfect 9-of-9 in field goal attempts between 40-49 yards and 2-of-2 in attempts of 50 or more yards.

Edge: Chargers


Notable Quotable

“But we’ve been in the playoff-type deal for four weeks because you lose another one, you’re done. But we’ve been in that mode. I don’t think our mind-set has to change or shift gears. We didn’t get to relax in the month of December because we had some things wrapped up. It’s been playoff football for a month.” – Philip Rivers on the team’s December performance.

“Offensively, I don't think we've done very well, but we haven't put a pretty complete game together," Dalton said. "This is the time. What you've done in the regular season doesn't matter anymore; it's all about what you're doing now. It's the team that gets hot that ends up winning it all. We've got to play to our potential and good things are going to happen for us.” – Andy Dalton on the Bengals past postseason performances and the importance on focusing on the upcoming game.


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[Udog]

NFL

Saturday, January 4

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49ers at Packers: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 45.5)

The San Francisco 49ers enter the postseason as the league's hottest team and it may take the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to cool them off when they visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The 49ers closed the regular season with six consecutive wins and have won the past three matchups with the Packers, who clinched the NFC North last week with a 33-28 win at Chicago in Aaron Rodgers' return to the lineup. It will be a rematch of the season opener, won by host San Francisco 34-28.

Green Bay has been unable to slow the 49ers' offense, surrendering an average of 36.3 points in the past three defeats, including a 45-31 drubbing in last season's playoffs. The last two meetings have been in San Francisco, but the weather could have a major bearing on Sunday's matchup - the high temperature is expected to be zero degrees with wind chills reaching minus-30. "You just have to block it out," said 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who has accounted for seven touchdowns in the past two matchups.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 2.5-point road faves. The total opened 48.5 but is down to 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will hover around zero degrees with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (12-4): Kaepernick has shown an ability to beat Green Bay with both his legs and arm, rushing for a record 181 yards with a combined four TDs in last year's playoff victory and throwing for 412 yards and three scoring passes in the Week 1 victory. Wideout Michael Crabtree had nine catches for 119 yards and two TDs in last season's playoff meeting and has 19 receptions in five games since returning from Achilles' tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin torched the Packers for 13 catches and 208 yards in Week 1 while tight end Vernon Davis has surpassed 100 yards in four of his five postseason games. The running game is headed by Frank Gore, who is coming off his seventh 1,000-yard season, while San Francisco's defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and limited 11 of its last 13 opponents to 20 points or fewer.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-7-1): Green Bay's offense went into a tailspin after Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone that caused him to miss seven games, failing to score more than 13 points in three of its first four games without the former MVP. Rodgers threw for 318 yards and a pair of TDs in his first game back, including the game-winning 48-yard strike to Randall Cobb, who was back in the lineup for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 6. Cobb provides a dangerous weapon opposite Jordy Nelson (10 receptions for 161 yards last week) and opens up the running game for bruising rookie Eddie Lacy, who rushed for 1,178 yards and 11 TDs, and James Starks. The big concern is a defense that surrenders 26.8 points, has allowed seven 100-yard rushers in the last nine and is without pass-rushing linebacker Clay Matthews.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Green Bay and San Francisco rank third and fourth in all-time postseason wins with 30 and 28, respectively.

2. Davis has five touchdown receptions and averages 109.2 receiving yards in five postseason games.

3. Rodgers owns the third-highest passer rating in league history at 103.6.


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NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Tale of the tape: 49ers at Packers
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The fifth-seeded 49ers travel to Lambeau Field to face the fourth seed Packers in Sunday's NFC Wild Card game.

Check out the matchup in our betting tale of the tape.

Offense

The 49ers offense are ranked 11th in points, scoring an average of 25.4 a game. Their offensive strength has been rushing the ball averaging 137.6 yards a game ranking them third overall. Frank Gore has 276 attempts for 1,128 yards and nine touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for 524 yards and has four rushing touchdowns. The team has struggled in passing and rank 30th, averaging only 186.2 yards per game. Despite the 49ers' poor passing, they still have 21 touchdowns on the year and 20 of those have come from two players: Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. Boldin has 85 receptions for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns and Vernon Davis has 52 receptions for 850 yards and 13 touchdowns. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has a 58.4 percent completion percentage with 21 TDs and eight INTs.

The Packers are ranked eighth in scoring averaging 26.1 points per game. Green Bay is sixth in passing yards, averaging 266.8 yards and seventh in rushing yards with 133.5. The Packers are putting up the third most yards per game averaging 400.2. Eddie Lacy has been the Packers leading rusher with 284 attempts for 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Packers have been very successful passing the ball with six players having 300 or more receiving yards. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers played his first game last week after missing seven straight with an injury. Through nine games played, Aaron Rodgers has completed 66.6 percent of his passes and has 17 TDs and six INTs. Green Bay has been accurate when it matters completing 9-of-13 (69 percent) fourth down conversion attempts.

Edge: Packers


Defense

The Packers defense have been plagued with injuries all year and find themselves allowing 26.8 points per game ranking them 24th. The Packers defensive strength has been pressuring the quarterback and they have gotten 44 total sacks on the year. They will likely struggle without outside linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the team in sacks with 7.5 but will not be starting Sunday due to injury. CB Sam Shields leads the team in interceptions with four.

The 49ers defense is ranked third in points allowed averaging 17. They are averaging 95.9 rushing yards allowed per game (fourth) and 221 passing yards ranking them seventh. The 49ers have six players with over three sacks and two players with over 100 combined tackles each: NaVorro Bowman 145 combined, five sacks and four fumbles and Patrick Willis 104 combined, three sacks and two fumbles. Of the 49ers' 12 forced fumbles, 11 have been recovered and three run back for touchdowns. Tramaine Brock leads the team in interceptions with five.

Edge: 49ers


Special Teams

Kicker Phil Dawson has made 32-of-36 (89 percent) field goals including a 56-yarder. Andy Lee is among the game’s best punters and ranks fourth in net yards with 41.7. LaMichael James has 23 punt returns averaging 10.9 yards a return and a long of 40 yards. James also has12 kick returns for 321 yards averaging 26.8 yards per return.

Kicker Mason Crosby has made 33-of-37 field goals (89 percent) with a long of 57 yards. Micah Hyde has 24 punt returns for an average of 12.3 including a return of 93 yards and one touchdown. Hyde has 22 kick returns for 531 yards averaging 24.1 yards per return and a long of 70 yards.

Edge: 49ers


Notable Quotable

“Well, I think when you add one of your best players back to the offense it's going to impact everybody. I think you've seen it with some teams this year, when you subtract one of their best players, how that can impact the game. So, the opposite is true.” – 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman on the return of Michael Crabtree.

“You have to rely on your fundamentals and trust your training more than anything. So when you talk about hand placement, focus, looking the ball in to the tuck, plucking the ball out of the air. The little things. You have to go back, focus on your fundamentals and make sure you’re extremely detailed.” – Packers receivers coach Edgar Bennett on the challenges of playing in the freezing climate.


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[jt4545]

Good luck udog and always thanks for the info with green bay, i like cin. Today